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At least 55 records · Page 3

Regional-Scale Modeling Parameterizations for Secondary Organic Aerosol Formation from Isoprene Epoxydiols: Experimentally Based Evaluation and Optimization

Isoprene is an abundant volatile organic compound emitted from broadleaf forests. Under low nitric oxide concentrations, isoprene is photochemically oxidized to form gas-phase isoprene epoxydiols (IEPOX). In the presence of acidified sulfate aerosols, IEPOX enhances the secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation. Predictions of IEPOX-SOA in regional-scale models, e.g., the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ), are uncertain due to homogeneous aerosol assumptions, underpredictions of water uptake (hygroscopicity), and aerosol surface area. Here, we used experimental measurements of IEPOX-SOA tracers, 2-methyltetrols (2-MT) and 2-methyltetrol sulfates (2-MTS), formed at initial IEPOX-to-inorganic sulfate ratios ranging from 1–10.5, at ∼50% relative humidity to constrain key IEPOX-SOA parameters: phase separation, organic shell diffusivity (D org ), acidity, hygroscopic growth, mass accommodation, and kinetics. The base CMAQ parametrization overpredicted experimental IEPOX-SOA with an average normalized mean bias (NMB average ) of 1.63. CMAQ with phase separation underpredicted IEPOX-SOA (NMB average = −0.71). Using the phase-separated model, CMAQ model performance was optimized (NMB average = 0.077) with an increased D org = 2 × 10 –16 m 2 s –1 and increased rate constants (k 2-MT = 1 × 10 –3 M 2 s –1 , k 2-MTS = 8.83 × 10 –3 M 2 s –1 ). The optimized model explicitly accounted for hygroscopic growth by utilizing experimentally derived growth rates, improving aerosol surface area predictions. Our model highlights the importance of the aerosol mixing state (homogeneous versus phase-separated), aerosol size dynamics, and hygroscopic growth in modeling heterogeneous reactive uptake of IEPOX.

aerosols↗

A minor respiratory process with major global implications: is atmospheric methane oxidation in tree stems driven by stem respiration rather than microbial methanotrophy?

Tree stem surfaces are widely recognized as sites of carbon dioxide (CO₂) efflux and oxygen (O₂) influx, reflecting the dynamics of aerobic respiration of photosynthate substrates, such as sugars, delivered via the phloem. Stems are also largely considered passive conduits for methane (CH₄) produced in anoxic soils via microbial methanogenesis, where CH₄ is thought to be transported upward through the transpiration stream and/or diffusion and emitted through stem surfaces and the canopy. However, recent observations from dynamic stem chambers suggest that stems may also act as active sinks for atmospheric CH₄. Despite these findings, the extent and drivers of stem CH₄ consumption remain poorly characterized across biomes, species, and environmental gradients, and its quantitative relationship to stem respiration has not been established. Moreover, previous studies captured only snapshot fluxes, leaving diurnal patterns of CH₄ exchange uncharacterized. Here, we address these limitations by combining real-time measurements of stem CH₄ and O₂ uptake under ambient conditions in a California cherry tree, using a dynamic stem gas exchange system with three chambers receiving a continuous flow of ambient air and automated chamber and reference air sampling every 10 min. Our results confirm that stems of upland trees can actively consume both atmospheric CH₄ and O₂, but with decreasing temperature sensitivity as daily temperatures increase. Early mornings were marked by rapid influxes of both gases, followed by declining uptake as temperatures rose further. Methane uptake was tightly coupled with O₂ influx and represented a minor (0.012% ± 0.002%) fraction of stem respiratory activity, as determined by concurrent O₂ uptake. These findings suggest that while atmospheric CH₄ oxidation is a minor respiratory process in stems, it is strongly linked with stem physiological activity. This challenges the current assumption that terrestrial CH₄ uptake is driven solely by microbial methanotrophy and raises the possibility that living stem tissues may contribute to CH₄ oxidation through an as-yet-unidentified plant-based mechanism.

Atmospheric greenhouse gases↗

Joint effects of climate, tree size, and year on annual tree growth derived from tree–ring records of ten globally distributed forests

Tree rings provide an invaluable long-term record for understanding how climate and other drivers shape tree growth and forest productivity. However, conventional tree-ring analysis methods were not designed to simultaneously test effects of climate, tree size, and other drivers on individual growth. This has limited the potential to test ecologically relevant hypotheses on tree growth sensitivity to environmental drivers and their interactions with tree size. Here, we develop and apply a new method to simultaneously model nonlinear effects of primary climate drivers, reconstructed tree diameter at breast height (DBH), and calendar year in generalized least squares models that account for the temporal autocorrelation inherent to each individual tree's growth. We analyze data from 3811 trees representing 40 species at 10 globally distributed sites, showing that precipitation, temperature, DBH, and calendar year have additively, and often interactively, influenced annual growth over the past 120 years. Growth responses were predominantly positive to precipitation (usually over ≥3-month seasonal windows) and negative to temperature (usually maximum temperature, over ≤3-month seasonal windows), with concave-down responses in 63% of relationships. Climate sensitivity commonly varied with DBH (45% of cases tested), with larger trees usually more sensitive. Trends in ring width at small DBH were linked to the light environment under which trees established, but basal area or biomass increments consistently reached maxima at intermediate DBH. Accounting for climate and DBH, growth rate declined over time for 92% of species in secondary or disturbed stands, whereas growth trends were mixed in older forests. These trends were largely attributable to stand dynamics as cohorts and stands age, which remain challenging to disentangle from global change drivers. By providing a parsimonious approach for characterizing multiple interacting drivers of tree growth, our method reveals a more complete picture of the factors influencing growth than has previously been possible.

generalized least squares (GLS)↗

Ensemble Federated Machine Learning‐Based Cybersecurity Situational Awareness in Microgrid Network

Cyber-physical microgrids are vulnerable to stealthy cybersecurity threats that disguise their actions through the exploitation of system knowledge. Such actions can severely impacts microgrids deployed in defense bases, slowing the response time of military forces during national emergencies. Several machine-learning algorithms have been proposed to detect intrusions in the grid networks; however, these traditional machine-learning algorithms lack data privacy and are subject to several adversarial machine-learning threats. This paper proposes a novel federated machine learning (FML)-based three-model framework to detect and identify stealthy data-integrity attacks while ensuring data privacy in microgrid networks. The proposed architecture uses a variational mode decomposition technique to extract derived features from incoming measurement and control datasets. The extraction of these derived features allows FML models to learn minute variations in data patterns that allow them to perform significantly better than the models trained with generic datasets consisting of raw features. Our experimental results show the efficient performance of the proposed methodology against different types of data integrity attacks while considering primary and secondary controllers in microgrids. Further, the applied FML-integrated random forest ensemble algorithm outperforms the existing generic FML algorithms during noisy and noise-free datasets with prediction latencies of only 91–134 µs per sample within the 0.1 s sampling interval and requires communication bandwidth of around ∼8.25 KB/s at the control center and ∼2.7 KB/s per edge client for communication.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A field guide for aging passerine nestlings using growth data and predictive modeling

Abstract Background Accurate nestling age is valuable for studies on nesting strategies, productivity, and impacts on reproductive success. Most aging guides consist of descriptions and photographs that are time consuming to read and subjective to interpret. The Western Bluebird ( Sialia mexicana ) is a secondary cavity-nesting passerine that nests in coniferous and open deciduous forests. Nest box programs for cavity-nesting species have provided suitable nesting locations and opportunities for data collection on nestling growth and development. Methods We developed models for predicting the age of Western Bluebird nestlings from morphometric measurements using model training and validation. These were developed for mass, tarsus, and two different culmen measurements. Results Our models were accurate to within less than a day, and each model worked best for a specific age range. The mass and tarsus models can be used to estimate the ages of Western Bluebird nestlings 0–10 days old and were accurate to within 0.5 days for mass and 0.7 days for tarsus. The culmen models can be used to estimate ages of nestlings 0–15 days old and were also accurate to within less than a day. The daily mean, minimum, and maximum values of each morphometric measurement are provided and can be used in the field for accurate nestling age estimations in real time. Conclusions The model training and validation procedures used here demonstrate that this method can create aging models that are highly accurate. The methods can be applied to any passerine species provided sufficient nestling morphometric data are available.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Investigating Secondary Aerosol Processes in the Amazon through Molecular-level Characterization of Semi-Volatile Organics

In areas where biogenic emissions are oxidized in the presence of anthropogenic pollutants, it has become increasingly apparent that secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation from biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) is substantially enhanced. The Amazon forest is the dominant source of BVOCs globally, and the forest is rapidly being converted to urban and agricultural uses. We participated in a collaborative field study located in the Amazon region around Manaus, Brazil, in 2014 (Green Ocean Amazon; GoAmazon). This study was designed to comprehensively examine how BVOC emissions (specifically, the most highly emitted non-methane hydrocarbon, isoprene, and lesser studied sesquiterpenes) and their interaction with anthropogenic pollution (i.e., nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, and black carbon) alter the atmosphere’s oxidative capacity, influence secondary aerosol formation, atmospheric composition and, ultimately, affect the earth’s radiation balance and climate. We provide the first hourly, in-situ measurement of 30 sesquiterpenes and 4 diterpenes, roughly estimating that sesquiterpene oxidation contributes to 10-14% of ozone reactive loss by terpenes and at least 0.4–5% (median 1 %) of total submicron OA mass. However, this is likely a low-end estimate, as evidence for additional unaccounted sesquiterpenes and their oxidation products clearly exists. We also provide new perspectives on sulfate, NO x , and particle acidity influencing isoprene-derived SOA, comparing the central Amazon environment with Southeastern U.S.A. summer, representing clean to polluted conditions, respectively. We find that summed concentrations of isoprene-derived SOA tracers correlated with particulate sulfate spanning three orders of magnitude, suggesting that 1 μg m -3 reduction in sulfate corresponds with at least ~0.5 μg m -3 reduction in isoprene-derived SOA. We also find that SOA mass derived from isoprene oxidation in the presence of NO x is primarily comprised of aerosol sulfate bound with isoprene oxidation products (i.e. organosulfates), ~97% in the Amazon and ~55% in the Southeastern U.S. We infer under natural conditions in high isoprene emission regions, preindustrial aerosol sulfate was almost exclusively isoprene-derived organosulfates, which are traditionally thought as representative of anthropogenic influence. We further report the first field observations showing that particle acidity impacts the distribution of isoprene oxidation tracers in the gas and particle phases, providing physicochemical insight into isoprene SOA formation chemistry. Coupled with other co-located measurements by the DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) team and collaborating PIs at our measurement site (called T3), on the G1 aircraft, and at additional field sites (T0, T1, T2) this data set has been used to understand emission, oxidation, and particle formation pathways at the molecular level, to elucidate how these pathways change when influenced by anthropogenic sources, and to evaluate their importance for the atmospheric budget of aerosols and the earth’s radiation balance on regional scales. Recommendations: Further constraint of the role of sesquiterpenes on ozone (O 3 ) reactivity and SOA formation is limited by the availability of authentic standards and synthesized compounds of sesquiterpenes and their oxidation products. Future research efforts should focus on making such standards available via custom synthesis to allow for accurate quantification and focused oxidation experiments that will fully elucidate the chemistry of these compounds in the atmosphere. Further, reductions in aerosol sulfate (via SO 2 emissions control) continues to be one of the most effective methods to reduce SOA formation from isoprene, but the concerted role of ammonia (NH 3 ) gas emissions from (agricultural) industry and other sources requires more investigation to better understand the role of aerosol acidity in SOA formation and potential controls. As GoAmazon particles can be more acidic compared to areas with greater anthropogenic NH 3 emissions, this promotes relatively greater organosulfate (OS) formation from isoprene even in the presence of NO x . Because OS and inorganic sulfate differ in water uptake properties, this implies preindustrial aerosol sulfate (albeit less abundant) may have been less reflective than current earth system models assume. Further research should investigate the radiative impacts of organic vs inorganic sulfate in aerosols to improve model representation. Finally, future work (currently underway) should include constraint of the contributions of monoterpene (C 10 H 16 ) BVOCs and biomass burning VOCs as precursors to SOA formation in the region as well as their impacts on radiative forcing in the climate system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F CA-NS1 UCI-1850 burn site

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site CA-NS1 UCI-1850 burn site. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site CA-NS1 UCI-1850 burn site produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - The UCI-1850 site is located in a continental boreal forest, dominated by black spruce trees, within the BOREAS northern study area in central Manitoba, Canada. The site is a member of a chronological series of sites that are representative secondary succession growth stages after large stand replacement fires. Black spruce trees undergo a slow growth process enabling the accurate determination of the chronosequence of stand age disturbance. Additionally, boreal forests make up approximately 25% of forest ecosystems on earth. With both of these in mind, the UCI sites provide an excellent location to study the CO2 exchange between the atmosphere and boreal forest ecosystems as a function of sequential wildfires.

Goulden, Mike↗

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F CA-NS2 UCI-1930 burn site

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site CA-NS2 UCI-1930 burn site. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site CA-NS2 UCI-1930 burn site produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - The UCI-1930 site is located in a continental boreal forest, dominated by black spruce trees, within the BOREAS northern study area in central Manitoba, Canada. The site is a member of a chronological series of sites that are representative secondary succession growth stages after large stand replacement fires. Black spruce trees undergo a slow growth process enabling the accurate determination of the chronosequence of stand age disturbance. Additionally, boreal forests make up approximately 25% of forest ecosystems on earth. With both of these in mind, the UCI sites provide an excellent location to study the CO2 exchange between the atmosphere and boreal forest ecosystems as a function of sequential wildfires.

Goulden, Mike↗

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F CA-NS3 UCI-1964 burn site

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site CA-NS3 UCI-1964 burn site. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site CA-NS3 UCI-1964 burn site produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - The UCI-1964 site is located in a continental boreal forest, dominated by black spruce trees, within the BOREAS northern study area in central Manitoba, Canada. The site is a member of a chronological series of sites that are representative secondary succession growth stages after large stand replacement fires. Black spruce trees undergo a slow growth process enabling the accurate determination of the chronosequence of stand age disturbance. Additionally, boreal forests make up approximately 25% of forest ecosystems on earth. With both of these in mind, the UCI sites provide an excellent location to study the CO2 exchange between the atmosphere and boreal forest ecosystems as a function of sequential wildfires.

Goulden, Mike↗

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F CA-NS4 UCI-1964 burn site wet

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site CA-NS4 UCI-1964 burn site wet. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site CA-NS4 UCI-1964 burn site wet produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - The UCI-1964 wet site is located in a continental boreal forest, dominated by black spruce trees, within the BOREAS northern study area in central Manitoba, Canada. The site is a member of a chronological series of sites that are representative secondary succession growth stages after large stand replacement fires. Black spruce trees undergo a slow growth process enabling the accurate determination of the chronosequence of stand age disturbance. Additionally, boreal forests make up approximately 25% of forest ecosystems on earth. With both of these in mind, the UCI sites provide an excellent location to study the CO2 exchange between the atmosphere and boreal forest ecosystems as a function of sequential wildfires.

Goulden, Mike↗

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F CA-NS5 UCI-1981 burn site

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site CA-NS5 UCI-1981 burn site. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site CA-NS5 UCI-1981 burn site produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - The UCI-1981 site is located in a continental boreal forest, dominated by black spruce trees, within the BOREAS northern study area in central Manitoba, Canada. The site is a member of a chronological series of sites that are representative secondary succession growth stages after large stand replacement fires. Black spruce trees undergo a slow growth process enabling the accurate determination of the chronosequence of stand age disturbance. Additionally, boreal forests make up approximately 25% of forest ecosystems on earth. With both of these in mind, the UCI sites provide an excellent location to study the CO2 exchange between the atmosphere and boreal forest ecosystems as a function of sequential wildfires.

Goulden, Mike↗

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F CA-NS6 UCI-1989 burn site

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site CA-NS6 UCI-1989 burn site. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site CA-NS6 UCI-1989 burn site produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - The UCI-1989 site is located in a continental boreal forest, dominated by black spruce trees, within the BOREAS northern study area in central Manitoba, Canada. The site is a member of a chronological series of sites that are representative secondary succession growth stages after large stand replacement fires. Black spruce trees undergo a slow growth process enabling the accurate determination of the chronosequence of stand age disturbance. Additionally, boreal forests make up approximately 25% of forest ecosystems on earth. With both of these in mind, the UCI sites provide an excellent location to study the CO2 exchange between the atmosphere and boreal forest ecosystems as a function of sequential wildfires.

Goulden, Mike↗

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F CA-NS7 UCI-1998 burn site

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site CA-NS7 UCI-1998 burn site. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site CA-NS7 UCI-1998 burn site produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - The UCI-1998 site is located in a continental boreal forest, dominated by black spruce trees, within the BOREAS northern study area in central Manitoba, Canada. The site is a member of a chronological series of sites that are representative secondary succession growth stages after large stand replacement fires. Black spruce trees undergo a slow growth process enabling the accurate determination of the chronosequence of stand age disturbance. Additionally, boreal forests make up approximately 25% of forest ecosystems on earth. With both of these in mind, the UCI sites provide an excellent location to study the CO2 exchange between the atmosphere and boreal forest ecosystems as a function of sequential wildfires.

Goulden, Mike↗

Intensive aerosol properties of boreal and regional biomass burning aerosol at Mt. Bachelor Observatory: larger and black carbon (BC)-dominant particles transported from Siberian wildfires

We characterize the aerosol physical and optical properties of 13 transported biomass burning (BB) events. BB events included long-range influence from fires in Alaskan and Siberian boreal forests transported to Mt. Bachelor Observatory (MBO) in the free troposphere (FT) over 8–14+ d and regional wildfires in northern California and southwestern Oregon transported to MBO in the boundary layer (BL) over 10 h to 3 d. Intensive aerosol optical properties and normalized enhancement ratios for BB events were derived from measured aerosol light scattering coefficients (σ scat ), aerosol light-absorbing coefficients (σ abs ), fine particulate matter (PM 1 ), and carbon monoxide (CO) measurements made from July to September 2019, with particle size distribution collected from August to September. The observations showed that the Siberian BB events had a lower scattering Ångström exponent (SAE), a higher mass scattering efficiency (MSE; Δσ scat /ΔPM 1 ), and a bimodal aerosol size distribution with a higher geometric mean diameter (D g ). We hypothesize that the larger particles and associated scattering properties were due to the transport of fine dust alongside smoke in addition to contributions from condensation of secondary aerosol, coagulation of smaller particles, and aqueous-phase processing during transport. Alaskan and Siberian boreal forest BB plumes were transported long distances in the FT and characterized by lower absorption Ångström exponent (AAE) values indicative of black carbon (BC) dominance in the radiative budget. Significantly elevated AAE values were only observed for BB events with <1 d transport, which suggests strong production of brown carbon (BrC) in these plumes but limited radiative forcing impacts outside of the immediate region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Volatile Organic Compounds in Bankhead National Forest (AMF3). August to September, 2025

The formation of atmospheric aerosols through the transformation of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) is a fundamental process in aerosol-climate interactions, as these particles serve as cloud condensation nuclei and ultimately influence Earth’s radiative balance. However, there remains a critical need to quantify the effects of multiple coexisting VOC precursors on aerosol formation beyond the limitations of laboratory-scale studies. This research aims to advance the mechanistic understanding of secondary organic aerosol formation in the southeastern United States by investigating interactions among coexisting VOC precursors observed at the third ARM Mobile Facility located in the Bankhead National Forest. The dataset was generated from the deployment of Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s PTR-TOF 6000 X2 Proton Transfer Reaction Time-of-Flight Mass Spectrometer (PTR-ToF-MS) for the real-time, continuous monitoring of VOCs from August 21 to September 15, 2025. To minimize sampling artifacts and compound losses, the PTR-ToF-MS inlet was connected to the cabin flow line by replacing the existing Tygon tubing with 1/2-inch outer diameter perfluoroalkoxy (PFA) tubing. The instrument operated on an hourly measurement cycle consisting of 8 minutes of zero-air measurements followed by 52 minutes of ambient air sampling, with a temporal resolution of 10 seconds. The dataset includes concentrations, reported in ppb, of methanol, acetone, acetonitrile, isoprene, methyl vinyl ketone and methacrolein (MVK + MACR), monoterpenes, benzene, toluene, and catechol.

Atmospheric concentration of volatile organic comp↗

Anthropogenic extremely low volatility organics (ELVOCs) Govern the Growth of Molecular Clusters over the Southern Great Plains during the Springtime

New particle formation (NPF) and growth govern cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations in many regions. The mechanisms governing the nucleation of molecular clusters vary substantially in different regions of the atmosphere. Additionally, the growth of these clusters from ~2 to 20 nm sizes is often governed by the availability of extremely low volatility organic vapours (ELVOCs). While the pathways to ELVOC formation from the oxidation of biogenic monoterpenes with ozone is better understood, the chemical and mechanistic pathways for ELVOC formation from oxidation of anthropogenic organics are not well understood. We integrate measurements and three-dimensional regional model simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model coupled to chemistry (WRF-Chem) to understand the processes governing new particle formation and growth and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation during the Holistic Interactions of Shallow Clouds, Aerosols and Land Ecosystems (HI-SCALE) field campaign at the Southern Great Plains (SGP) observatory in Oklahoma, and contrast it with a site within the Bankhead National Forest (BNF), Alabama in Southeast USA, where 5-year long measurements will begin in 2024. Simulations show that nucleation rates are at least an order of magnitude higher at SGP compared to BNF during the springtime days (April 28 and May 14, 2016), largely due to lower H2SO4 concentrations at BNF, which are needed for nucleation. In addition, the larger CS at BNF (compared to SGP) increase the loss of molecular clusters by coagulation to pre-existing particles. Among the 8 different nucleation mechanisms in WRF-Chem, we find that the amine+H2SO4 nucleation mechanism dominates at the SGP site, while the pure organic ion induced nucleation mechanism dominates over BNF. Through various WRF-Chem sensitivity simulations, we find that anthropogenic ELVOCs are critical for explaining the growth of newly formed particles and the resulting number size distribution observed near the surface at the SGP site during the daytime. In addition, we show that treating organic particles as semisolid, with strong diffusion-limited uptake of organic vapours, brings model predictions into closer agreement with the observed evolution of particle size distribution. Simulations also predict that anthropogenic SOA, formed by the oxidation of aromatic volatile organic compounds (VOCs), is the dominant organic aerosol component at SGP, while biogenic SOA dominates particle composition at the BNF site in Southeast USA on these days.

Shrivastava, ManishKumar B.↗

Modeling freight mode choice using machine learning classifiers: a comparative study using Commodity Flow Survey (CFS) data

This study explores the usefulness of machine learning classifiers for modeling freight mode choice. We investigate eight commonly used machine learning classifiers, namely Naïve Bayes, Support Vector Machine, Artificial Neural Network, K-Nearest Neighbors, Classification and Regression Tree, Random Forest, Boosting and Bagging, along with the classical Multinomial Logit model. US 2012 Commodity Flow Survey data are used as the primary data source; we augment it with spatial attributes from secondary data sources. The performance of the classifiers is compared based on prediction accuracy results. The current research also examines the role of sample size and training-testing data split ratios on the predictive ability of the various approaches. In addition, the importance of variables is estimated to determine how the variables influence freight mode choice. The results show that the tree-based ensemble classifiers perform the best. Specifically, Random Forest produces the most accurate predictions, closely followed by Boosting and Bagging. With regard to variable importance, shipment characteristics, such as shipment distance, industry classification of the shipper and shipment size, are the most significant factors for freight mode choice decisions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Rainforest-to-pasture conversion stimulates soil methanogenesis across the Brazilian Amazon

The Amazon rainforest is a biodiversity hotspot and large terrestrial carbon sink threatened by agricultural conversion. Rainforest-to-pasture conversion stimulates the release of methane, a potent greenhouse gas. The biotic methane cycle is driven by microorganisms; therefore, this study focused on active methane-cycling microorganisms and their functions across land-use types. We collected intact soil cores from three land use types (primary rainforest, pasture, and secondary rainforest) of two geographically distinct areas of the Brazilian Amazon (Santarém, Pará and Ariquemes, Rondônia) and performed DNA stable-isotope probing coupled with metagenomics to identify the active methanotrophs and methanogens. At both locations, we observed a significant change in the composition of the isotope-labeled methane-cycling microbial community across land use types, specifically an increase in the abundance and diversity of active methanogens in pastures. We conclude that a significant increase in the abundance and activity of methanogens in pasture soils could drive increased soil methane emissions. Furthermore, we found that secondary rainforests had decreased methanogenic activity similar to primary rainforests, and thus a potential to recover as methane sinks, making it conceivable for forest restoration to offset greenhouse gas emissions in the tropics. These findings are critical for informing land management practices and global tropical rainforest conservation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗