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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3

Calculation of surface and top of atmosphere radiative fluxes from physical quantities based on ISCCP data sets. 1: Method and sensitivity to input data uncertainties

The largest uncertainty in upwelling shortwave (SW) fluxes (approximately equal 10-15 W/m(exp 2), regional daily mean) is caused by uncertainties in land surface albedo, whereas the largest uncertainty in downwelling SW at the surface (approximately equal 5-10 W/m(exp 2), regional daily mean) is related to cloud detection errors. The uncertainty of upwelling longwave (LW) fluxes (approximately 10-20 W/m(exp 2), regional daily mean) depends on the accuracy of the surface temperature for the surface LW fluxes and the atmospheric temperature for the top of atmosphere LW fluxes. The dominant source of uncertainty is downwelling LW fluxes at the surface (approximately equal 10-15 W/m(exp 2)) is uncertainty in atmospheric temperature and, secondarily, atmospheric humidity; clouds play little role except in the polar regions. The uncertainties of the individual flux components and the total net fluxes are largest over land (15-20 W/m(exp 2)) because of uncertainties in surface albedo (especially its spectral dependence) and surface temperature and emissivity (including its spectral dependence). Clouds are the most important modulator of the SW fluxes, but over land areas, uncertainties in net SW at the surface depend almost as much on uncertainties in surface albedo. Although atmospheric and surface temperature variations cause larger LW flux variations, the most notable feature of the net LW fluxes is the changing relative importance of clouds and water vapor with latitude. Uncertainty in individual flux values is dominated by sampling effects because of large natrual variations, but uncertainty in monthly mean fluxes is dominated by bias errors in the input quantities.

Zhang, Y.-C.↗

Performing k eff Validation of As-Loaded Criticality Safety Calculations Using UNF-ST&DARDS: Sensitivity Calculations

The general method for performing validation of as loaded criticality safety calculations using UNF ST&DARDS is presented in a paper by Clarity, which includes a description of the UNF-ST&DARDS system. Proof-of-principle analyses were performed in the summer of 2019 for MPC-32 dual purpose canisters (DPCs) containing pressurized water reactor (PWR) fuel assemblies. Summaries of these results are presented in this and a companion paper for this conference. The current paper describes the TSUNAMI-3D calculations performed to generate sensitivity data, and the companion paper discusses the selection of critical experiments applicable for validation of the 11 MPC-32 DPCs considered. The generation of sensitivity data for as-loaded spent nuclear fuel (SNF) DPCs is a challenge given the detailed model of the fuel compositions generated by UNF ST&DARDS. Each fuel assembly is modeled with its own irradiation history in 18 axial nodes, unless the fuel assembly is damaged and thus considered as fresh by design basis. This results in a set of 576 fuel compositions, each of which must be processed separately in a multigroup (MG) calculation. Therefore, a continuous-energy (CE) TSUNAMI-3D method was chosen to alleviate this challenge. Two CE TSUNAMI-3D methods are available in SCALE 6.2.3: the iterated fission probability (IFP) and contribution-linked eigenvalue sensitivity/uncertainty estimation via track-length importance characterization (CLUTCH). Since the IFP method is not feasible because of memory requirements associated with its implementation in SCALE, the CLUTCH method was selected for these calculations. CLUTCH has been implemented in SCALE in parallel, allowing long calculations to be performed in reasonable timeframes. The two primary user inputs necessary for CLUTCH calculations are the F*(r) mesh and the number of latent generations used in determining the F*(r) function. This F*(r) function is used as the importance function for fission chains originating in a given volume element (voxel), and it is calculated using the IFP method in the skipped generations. A large number of skipped generations is thus required to ensure accurate calculation of this importance function. In these calculations, 500 generations were used to calculate the F*(r) function. For more information regarding the calculation of F*(r), see Jones [4]. The remainder of this paper is focused on the selection of the F*(r) mesh and the number of latent generations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Shock Sensitivity of energetic materials

Viscoplastic deformation is examined as the principal source of hot energy. Some shock sensitivity data on a proposed model is explained. A hollow sphere model is used to approximate complex porous matrix of energetic materials. Two pieces of shock sensitivity data are qualitatively compared with results of the proposed model. The first is the p2 tau law. The second is the desensitization of energetic materials by a ramp wave applied stress. An approach to improve the model based on experimental observations is outlined.

Kim, K.↗

Bi-Level Integrated System Synthesis (BLISS)

BLISS is a method for optimization of engineering systems by decomposition. It separates the system level optimization, having a relatively small number of design variables, from the potentially numerous subsystem optimizations that may each have a large number of local design variables. The subsystem optimizations are autonomous and may be conducted concurrently. Subsystem and system optimizations alternate, linked by sensitivity data, producing a design improvement in each iteration. Starting from a best guess initial design, the method improves that design in iterative cycles, each cycle comprised of two steps. In step one, the system level variables are frozen and the improvement is achieved by separate, concurrent, and autonomous optimizations in the local variable subdomains. In step two, further improvement is sought in the space of the system level variables. Optimum sensitivity data link the second step to the first. The method prototype was implemented using MATLAB and iSIGHT programming software and tested on a simplified, conceptual level supersonic business jet design, and a detailed design of an electronic device. Satisfactory convergence and favorable agreement with the benchmark results were observed. Modularity of the method is intended to fit the human organization and map well on the computing technology of concurrent processing.

Sobieszczanski-Sobieski, Jaroslaw↗

Bi-Level Integrated System Synthesis (BLISS)

BLISS is a method for optimization of engineering systems by decomposition. It separates the system level optimization, having a relatively small number of design variables, from the potentially numerous sub-system optimizations that may each have a large number of local design variables. The subsystem optimizations are autonomous and may be conducted concurrently. Subsystem and system optimizations alternate, linked by sensitivity data, producing a design improvement in each iteration. Starting from a best guess initial design, the method improves that design in iterative cycles, each cycle comprised of two steps. In step one, the system level variables are frozen and the improvement is achieved by separate, concurrent, and autonomous optimizations in the local variable subdomains. In step two, further improvement is sought in the space of the system level variables. Optimum sensitivity data link the second step to the first. The method prototype was implemented using MATLAB and iSIGHT programming software and tested on a simplified, conceptual level supersonic business jet design, and a detailed design of an electronic device.

Sobieszczanski-Sobieski, Jaroslaw↗

Sensitivity of transport aircraft performance and economics to advanced technology and cruise Mach number

Sensitivity data for advanced technology transports has been systematically collected. This data has been generated in two separate studies. In the first of these, three nominal, or base point, vehicles designed to cruise at Mach numbers .85, .93, and .98, respectively, were defined. The effects on performance and economics of perturbations to basic parameters in the areas of structures, aerodynamics, and propulsion were then determined. In all cases, aircraft were sized to meet the same payload and range as the nominals. This sensitivity data may be used to assess the relative effects of technology changes. The second study was an assessment of the effect of cruise Mach number. Three families of aircraft were investigated in the Mach number range 0.70 to 0.98: straight wing aircraft from 0.70 to 0.80; sweptwing, non-area ruled aircraft from 0.80 to 0.95; and area ruled aircraft from 0.90 to 0.98. At each Mach number, the values of wing loading, aspect ratio, and bypass ratio which resulted in minimum gross takeoff weight were used. As part of the Mach number study, an assessment of the effect of increased fuel costs was made.

Ardema, M. D.↗

Roadmap and Benchmarking: Privacy in Federated Load Forecasting

Data-driven techniques for energy demand forecasting continue to emerge with promising impacts on distribution grid planning. However, the development of robust and generalizable machine learning models requires that representative high quality training data are available. Distributed energy resources have begun to embed intelligence, gathering large amounts of data on customer demand, behavior, and household devices that are connected to the grid. Though utilities aggregate meter-level demand data for load shaping, demand response, outage management, reliability planning, and billing applications, there lies an inherent privacy concern in sharing consumption data that may identify individual consumer behavioral patterns. Hence, while sharing the data is crucial, the private sensitive customer data must be safeguarded from being exposed or manipulated. In this study, we propose a roadmap for implementing a based privacy preserving framework to support the advancement of data-driven analytics in data-sensitive distributed energy resources environments. The roadmap incorporates federated learning–a distributed training framework, differential privacy–a statistical framework that provides guarantees to safeguard the leakage of sensitive data, secure multiparty computation and homomorphic encryption– techniques for encrypting model gradients and applying secure aggregation on the server. Moreover, we perform baseline experiments on the federated short-term load forecasting (STLF) task using open-source residential load profile datasets, offering insights into the challenges of integrating differential privacy into federated learning.

Abebe, Waqwoya [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORN↗

Community threat intelligence and visibility for operational technology networks

Techniques are provided for community threat intelligence for operational technology networks. For a plurality of OT networks, at least one monitoring device processes OT network traffic and collects telemetry data, and a telemetry sanitization system applies a sanitization process to the telemetry data to generate sanitized telemetry data that does not include sensitive data. A computer system receives sanitized telemetry data from the telemetry sanitization systems provided for the plurality of OT networks, maintains threat intelligence data generated based on the sanitized telemetry data, and provides access to at least one of the threat intelligence data and the sanitized telemetry data to a plurality of users.

Bladow, Garrett↗

Mapping the proteogenomic landscape enables prediction of drug response in acute myeloid leukemia

Acute myeloid leukemia is a poor prognosis cancer commonly stratified by genetic aberrations, but these mutations are often heterogeneous and don’t always predict therapeutic response. Here we combine transcriptomic, proteomic, and phosphoproteomic datasets with ex vivo drug sensitivity data to help understand the underlying pathophysiology of AML beyond mutations. We measured the proteome and phosphoproteome of 210 patients and combined them with genomics and transcriptomic measurements to identify four proteogenomic subtypes that complemented existing genetic subtypes. We then built a predictor to classify samples into subtypes based on 147 molecular features and mapped them to a ‘landscape’. Each region of this landscape corresponded to specific drug response patterns. We then built a drug response prediction model to identify drugs that target distinct subtypes. We can ultimately use these models to predict drug treatment response and prioritize treatments. Finally, we extended our models and mapped a series of cell lines representing various stages of quizartinib resistance into our subtype landscape, predicting and experimentally validating a switch in sensitivity to venetoclax to panobinostat, two drugs with very different mechanisms than quizartinib. Our results show how multi-omics data together with drug sensitivity data can inform therapy stratification and drug combinations in AML.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Methods for safely sharing dual-use genetic data

Background: Some genetic data has dual-use potential. Sharing pathogen data has shown tremendous value. For example therapeutic development and lineage tracking during the COVID pandemic. This data sharing is complicated by the fact that these data have the potential to be used for harm. The genome sequence of a pathogen can be used to enable malicious genetic engineering approaches or to recreate the pathogen from synthetic DNA. Standard data security methods can be applied to genetic data, but when data is shared between institutions, ensuring appropriate security can be difficult. Sensitive data that is shared internationally among a wide array of institutions can be especially difficult to control. Methods for securely storing and sharing genetic data with potential for dual-use are needed to mitigate this potential harm.Results: Here we propose new methods that allow genetic data to be shared in a data format that prevents a nefarious actor from accessing sensitive aspects of the data. Our methods obfuscate raw sequence data by pooling reads from different samples. This approach can ensure that data is secure while stored and during electronic transfer. We demonstrate that by pooling raw sequence data from multiple samples of the same organism, the ability to fully reconstruct any individual sample is prevented. In the pooled data, most genomic information remains, but reads or mutations cannot be directly attributed to any individual sample. To further restrict access to information, regions of a genome can be removed from the reads.Conclusion: Our methods obscure genomic information within raw sequence reads. This method can allow genetic data to be stored and shared while preventing a nefarious actor from being able to perfectly reconstruct an organism. Broad-scale sequence information remains, while fine scale details about specific samples are difficult or impossible to reconstruct. Our software is available at https://github.com/Geneinfosec-Inc/ReadMixer.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Deterministic-Monte Carlo Hybrid Methods for Eigenvalue Sensitivity Coefficient Calculations

The TSUNAMI suite within the SCALE code package includes several methods for generating sensitivity data, including multigroup (MG) and continuous-energy (CE) capabilities. For generating sensitivities with CE data, three methods are available in SCALE 6.3.0: (1) the iterated fission probability (IFP) method with the KENO Monte Carlo transport solver, (2) IFP with the Shift Monte Carlo transport solver, and (3) the Contributon-Linked eigenvalue sensitivity/Uncertainty estimation via Tracklength importance Characterization (CLUTCH) with the KENO Monte Carlo transport solver. Currently, it is difficult to generate accurate sensitivities with large reflectors when using the CLUTCH method, specifically with fissionable and hydrogenous materials. To address this issue, the work presented herein examines a methodology to calculate the adjoint flux externally with the 3D deterministic SN transport code DENOVO in SCALE; the result is then read directly into the CLUTCH-TSUNAMI sequence. This hybridization method replaces the Monte Carlo F*(r) calculation in CLUTCH while still utilizing the forward calculation. The critical benchmark HEU-MET-FAST-028-001 is used to generate sensitivities based on the inability of CLUTCH to generate accurate sensitivities. Results from the hybrid method appear to generate sensitivity values that are in excellent agreement with direct perturbations. Although further testing is needed, the method provides promising results for the development and utility of a hybrid method for use in TSUNAMI.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Understanding Trigger Linkage Dynamics in Energetic Materials Using Mixed Picramide Nitrate Ester Explosives

The ability to predict the handling sensitivity of new organic energetic materials has been a longstanding goal. We report the synthesis and characterization of six new nitropicramide energetic materials with mixed functional groups that mimic known explosives such as nitroglycerin, erythritol tetranitrate (ETN), and pentaerythritol tetranitrate (PETN). The molecules have been studied theoretically using quantum molecular dynamics (QMD) simulations and density functional theory (DFT) calculations to identify the weakest bond in the reactants - the trigger-linkages - which control handling sensitivity, and to quantify their specific enthalpies of explosion. In good accord with the drop weight impact sensitivity data, our calculations predict that the sensitivities of the molecules are very similar owing to the small variations of the energy output and rates of trigger linkage rupture. In addition, both the QMD and DFT calculations point to the nitropicramide N–NO 2 bonds as the trigger linkages rather than the more typical O–NO 2 bonds. We propose that the switch of the trigger linkage from the nitrate esters to the nitramine groups arises from the strongly electron withdrawing character of the adjacent trinitrobenzene groups.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Wind Plant Performance Prediction Benchmark Phase 1 (Technical Report)

Financial risk resulting from the uncertainty associated with developing, owning, and operating wind power plants remains a barrier to reducing the levelized cost of energy (LCOE). On average, modern wind power plants in the U.S. underperform their expected annual energy output by 3.5-4.5% , with many underperforming by over 10%. To compensate for this uncertainty, investors require a larger return on investment (ROI) and apply "knock-down" factors that mask much of the underlying sources of uncertainty. Wind energy projects thus have reduced access to low-cost capital. Furthermore, operating wind plants often take a simple approach to estimating operations & maintenance (O&M) costs (e.g. straight-line estimates based on similar plants), which can eat into profits. To overcome these issues, the wind industry must improve the models they use for estimating wind plant performance and operations. An industry consortium (IC) requested that the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) lead a Department of Energy (DOE) working group to benchmark the accuracy of wind power plant energy predictions against real operational data. The IC was also motivated by DOE and NREL's potential to characterize systematic energy underperformance, identify sources of uncertainty, and explore root causes. The Wind Plant Performance Prediction (WP3) project was created out of this request, and this report represents the successful completion of Phase 1 of the WP3 project. During the project, wind plant owners provided both pre-construction and operational data to NREL. The pre-construction data was provided to wind resource assessment (WRA) consultants so they could conduct energy yield assessments (EYA). NREL took all of the completed EYAs, along with the operational data, and conducted an operational assessment to benchmark the EYA results against actual operational data. Given the large amounts of sensitive data required for this effort, as well as historical opposition to sharing data within industry, successful completion of Phase 1 represents an unprecedented milestone for industry data sharing. To improve the accuracy and confidence of pre-construction EYAs, wind plant owners and investors need better, more certain, energy yield predictions. The WP3 Benchmark Project is an industry-driven response to this reality. For the first time, industry has taken the important step of working together at scale, sharing valuable operational data with DOE and NREL in order to investigate the sources of bias and uncertainty in these energy estimates. This IC provides wind plant preconstruction and operational data to NREL in an organized and documented fashion and provides guidance and feedback as needed. The IC also provides introspection of the design of experiment, key metrics of success, data challenges, analysis best practices, and quality of results.

17 WIND ENERGY↗