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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3

A dynamic Bayesian optimized active recommender system for curiosity-driven partially Human-in-the-loop automated experiments

Optimization of experimental materials synthesis and characterization through active learning methods has been growing over the last decade, with examples ranging from measurements of diffraction on combinatorial alloys at synchrotrons, to searches through chemical space with automated synthesis robots for perovskites. In virtually all cases, the target property of interest for optimization is defined a priori with the ability to shift the trajectory of the optimization based on human-identified findings during the experiment is lacking. Thus, to highlight the best of both human operators and AI-driven experiments, here we present the development of a human–AI collaborated experimental workflow, via a Bayesian optimized active recommender system (BOARS), to shape targets on the fly with human real-time feedback. Here, the human guidance overpowers AI at early iteration when prior knowledge (uncertainty) is minimal (higher), while the AI overpowers the human during later iterations to accelerate the process with the human-assessed goal. We showcase examples of this framework applied to pre-acquired piezoresponse force spectroscopy of a ferroelectric thin film, and in real-time on an atomic force microscope, with human assessment to find symmetric hysteresis loops. It is found that such features appear more affected by subsurface defects than the local domain structure. This work shows the utility of human–AI approaches for curiosity driven exploration of systems across experimental domains.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Design of Materials with Alchemite

Machine learning models that establish the relationships between materials processing and properties can enable inverse design of materials through active learning. Alchemite is a commercial software that can perform inverse materials design on sparse data. Here we evaluate Alchemite’s performance on a dataset of shape memory alloys and a dataset of heat exchangers compared to baseline random forest models. Alchemite had higher accuracy when making predictions on sparse data and was more accurate or nearly as accurate as random forests on complete datasets while also quantifying uncertainty. The software was also used to suggest processing steps and design parameters to optimize properties and performance; however, physical validation of the suggested design parameters was beyond the scope of this work. Several useful design insights were gained about the impact of the design parameters on properties and performance including the importance of dopant choice and amount for shape memory alloys and the importance of height and weight on the thermal resistance of heat exchangers.

Machine learning↗

Robust Design Optimization via Failure Domain Bounding

This paper extends and applies the strategies recently developed by the authors for handling constraints under uncertainty to robust design optimization. For the scope of this paper, robust optimization is a methodology aimed at problems for which some parameters are uncertain and are only known to belong to some uncertainty set. This set can be described by either a deterministic or a probabilistic model. In the methodology developed herein, optimization-based strategies are used to bound the constraint violation region using hyper-spheres and hyper-rectangles. By comparing the resulting bounding sets with any given uncertainty model, it can be determined whether the constraints are satisfied for all members of the uncertainty model (i.e., constraints are feasible) or not (i.e., constraints are infeasible). If constraints are infeasible and a probabilistic uncertainty model is available, upper bounds to the probability of constraint violation can be efficiently calculated. The tools developed enable approximating not only the set of designs that make the constraints feasible but also, when required, the set of designs for which the probability of constraint violation is below a prescribed admissible value. When constraint feasibility is possible, several design criteria can be used to shape the uncertainty model of performance metrics of interest. Worst-case, least-second-moment, and reliability-based design criteria are considered herein. Since the problem formulation is generic and the tools derived only require standard optimization algorithms for their implementation, these strategies are easily applicable to a broad range of engineering problems.

Crespo, Luis G.↗

Options for Robust Airfoil Optimization under Uncertainty

A robust optimization method is developed to overcome point-optimization at the sampled design points. This method combines the best features from several preliminary methods proposed by the authors and their colleagues. The robust airfoil shape optimization is a direct method for drag reduction over a given range of operating conditions and has three advantages: (1) it prevents severe degradation in the off-design performance by using a smart descent direction in each optimization iteration, (2) it uses a large number of spline control points as design variables yet the resulting airfoil shape does not need to be smoothed, and (3) it allows the user to make a tradeoff between the level of optimization and the amount of computing time consumed. For illustration purposes, the robust optimization method is used to solve a lift-constrained drag minimization problem for a two-dimensional (2-D) airfoil in Euler flow with 20 geometric design variables.

Padula, Sharon L.↗

Complementary first and second derivative methods for ansatz optimization in variational Monte Carlo

We present a comparison between a number of recently introduced low-memory wave function optimization methods for variational Monte Carlo in which we find that first and second derivative methods possess strongly complementary relative advantages. While we find that low-memory variants of the linear method are vastly more efficient at bringing wave functions with disparate types of nonlinear parameters to the vicinity of the energy minimum, accelerated descent approaches are then able to locate the precise minimum with less bias and lower statistical uncertainty. By constructing a simple hybrid approach that combines these methodologies, we show that all of these advantages can be had at once when simultaneously optimizing large determinant expansions, molecular orbital shapes, traditional Jastrow correlation factors, and more nonlinear many-electron Jastrow factors.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Uncertainty quantification and optimization of precipitating hydrometeor parameters for winter precipitation in a cloud microphysics scheme

The precipitating hydrometeor parameters used in cloud microphysics schemes carry inherent uncertainties. The quantification of these uncertainties, together with parameter optimization, can significantly improve precipitation forecasts. This study investigates the effects of 13 parameters in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Double-Moment 6-class (WDM6) microphysics scheme, which define the hydrometeor characteristics such as fall velocity–diameter and mass–diameter relationships, as well as the shape parameter of the drop size distribution for precipitating particles such as rain, snow, and graupel on simulated winter precipitation. A comparison between the model's pre-defined parameters and observations from the International Collaborative Experiments for the PyeongChang 2018 Olympic and Paralympic winter games (ICE-POP 2018) field campaign reveals that the fall velocity–diameter relationship for rain, the mass–diameter relationships for snow and graupel, and the shape parameters for all precipitating particles in the WDM6 scheme deviate from the median values observed by the two-dimensional video disdrometer (2DVD). To quantify parameter sensitivities, a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) of 256 simulations was conducted within parameter ranges constrained by 2DVD observations for three winter precipitation cases. Bayesian optimization was then applied to identify parameter sets that minimized the root mean square error (RMSE) for each case, achieving reductions of up to 30.2 %. These results demonstrate that ensemble-based uncertainty quantification and parameter optimization can help identify key parameters and provide a pathway to improving precipitation simulation performance. In addition, measurement sites can be strategically selected based on regions that show high sensitivity to variations in hydrometeor characteristic parameters.

Bayesian optimization↗

Quantification of Dynamic Model Validation Metrics Using Uncertainty Propagation from Requirements

The Space Launch System, NASA's new large launch vehicle for long range space exploration, is presently in the final design and construction phases, with the first launch scheduled for 2019. A dynamic model of the system has been created and is critical for calculation of interface loads and natural frequencies and mode shapes for guidance, navigation, and control (GNC). Because of the program and schedule constraints, a single modal test of the SLS will be performed while bolted down to the Mobile Launch Pad just before the first launch. A Monte Carlo and optimization scheme will be performed to create thousands of possible models based on given dispersions in model properties and to determine which model best fits the natural frequencies and mode shapes from modal test. However, the question still remains as to whether this model is acceptable for the loads and GNC requirements. An uncertainty propagation and quantification (UP and UQ) technique to develop a quantitative set of validation metrics that is based on the flight requirements has therefore been developed and is discussed in this paper. There has been considerable research on UQ and UP and validation in the literature, but very little on propagating the uncertainties from requirements, so most validation metrics are "rules-of-thumb;" this research seeks to come up with more reason-based metrics. One of the main assumptions used to achieve this task is that the uncertainty in the modeling of the fixed boundary condition is accurate, so therefore that same uncertainty can be used in propagating the fixed-test configuration to the free-free actual configuration. The second main technique applied here is the usage of the limit-state formulation to quantify the final probabilistic parameters and to compare them with the requirements. These techniques are explored with a simple lumped spring-mass system and a simplified SLS model. When completed, it is anticipated that this requirements-based validation metric will provide a quantified confidence and probability of success for the final SLS dynamics model, which will be critical for a successful launch program, and can be applied in the many other industries where an accurate dynamic model is required.

Brown, Andrew M.↗

Enhancing predictive understanding and accuracy in geological carbon dioxide storage monitoring: Simulation and history matching of tracer transport dynamics

Co-injection of conservative tracers with carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is a viable tool for monitoring subsurface processes during geological CO 2 storage (GCS). This research investigates the simulation and history-matching of a gas tracer (sulfur hexafluoride, SF 6 ) during CO 2 flooding, employing a core flooding result in Berea sandstone. Four extensively used saturation functions are assessed for their efficacy in history matching of CO 2 /SF 6 injection at the core scale. The history-matching process incorporates particle swarm optimization (PSO) to fine-tune constitutive relationships parameters. Next, employing transport models at the aquifer scale, we interrogate the impact on tracer transport and mixing of saturation function uncertainties, arising from the non-uniqueness of constitutive relationships parameters and saturation function types. To assess the effects of geological heterogeneity on behavior of tracer breakthrough curves (BTCs), we employ two normalized parameters assessing the degree of mixing and SF 6 breakthrough time. The aquifer-scale investigation encompasses both homogeneous and heterogeneous systems with and without capillary heterogeneity effects. Our findings underscore the critical importance of addressing saturation function uncertainties, emphasizing the significance of auxiliary experiments and innovative methodologies to enhance predictive accuracy. The findings highlight significant disparities in arrival times, BTC peaks, tails, and mixing levels, even under optimal conditions. Heterogeneity, with or without capillary heterogeneity, plays a crucial role in shaping BTC variations, resulting in accelerated SF 6 breakthrough times and reduced BTC peaks. Evaluation of monitoring points distant from the injector reveals a dampening effect on the SF6 BTC peak, particularly in heterogeneous systems with capillary heterogeneity, where the peak is halved. These insights underscore the challenges associated with tracer monitoring and the necessity for enhanced methodologies to improve predictive accuracy in subsurface processes during GCS.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Survey on stochastic distribution systems: A full probability density function control theory with potential applications

Complex systems seen either in general engineering practice or economics are subjected to ever increased uncertainties that are mostly represented as random variables or parameters, and the characteristics of random variables are represented by their probability density functions (PDFs). Controlling their PDFs means to shape their stochastic distributions and in general it would provide a full treatment for system analysis and operational control and optimization. This leads to the development of stochastic distribution control (SDC) systems theory in the past decades, where the original aim of the controller design is to realize a shape control of the distributions of certain random variables in their PDFs sense for some engineering processes. Indeed, once the PDFs of these random variables or parameters are used to describe their distribution characters, the control task is to obtain control signals so that the output PDFs of stochastic systems are made to follow their target PDFs. The subject of SDC was initially originated for non-Gaussian stochastic control systems design but has found a wide spectrum of applications in general systems in terms of data-driven modeling, analysis, signal processing (filtering), data mining via multivariable statistics, decision-making (optimization) for systems subjected to uncertainties and even in economics. In this context, SDC constitutes an effective primer tool for complex system analysis, control and operational optimizations. In this review paper, a detailed survey of the developments on the research of SDC systems will be made together with their wide spectrum applications and future perspectives.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Minimizing structural vibrations with Input Shaping (TM)

A new method for commanding machines to move with increased dynamic performance was developed. This method is an enhanced version of input shaping, a patented vibration suppression algorithm. This technique intercepts a command input to a system command that moves the mechanical system with increased performance and reduced residual vibration. This document describes many advanced methods for generating highly optimized shaping sequences which are tuned to particular systems. The shaping sequence is important because it determines the trade off between move/settle time of the system and the insensitivity of the input shaping algorithm to variations or uncertainties in the machine which can be controlled. For example, a system with a 5 Hz resonance that takes 1 second to settle can be improved to settle instantaneously using a 0.2 shaping sequence (thus improving settle time by a factor of 5). This system could vary by plus or minus 15% in its natural frequency and still have no apparent vibration. However, the same system shaped with a 0.3 second shaping sequence could tolerate plus or minus 40% or more variation in natural frequency. This document describes how to generate sequences that maximize performance, sequences that maximize insensitivity, and sequences that trade off between the two. Several software tools are documented and included.

Singhose, Bill↗

Learning error distribution kernel‐enhanced neural network methodology for multi‐intersection signal control optimization

Traffic congestion has substantially induced significant mobility and energy inefficiency. Many research challenges are identified in traffic signal control and management associated with artificial intelligence (AI)-based models. For example, developing AI-driven dynamic traffic system models that accurately capture high-resolution traffic attributes and formulate robust control algorithms for traffic signal optimization is difficult. Additionally, uncertainties in traffic system modeling and control processes can further complicate traffic signal system controllability. To partially address these challenges, this study presents a novel, hybrid neural network model enhanced with a probability density function kernel shaping technique to formulate traffic system dynamics better and improve comprehensive traffic network modeling and control. The numerical experimental tests were conducted, and the results demonstrate that the proposed control approach outperforms the baseline control strategies and reduces overall average delays by 11.64% on average. By leveraging the capabilities of this innovative model, this study aims to address major challenges related to traffic congestion and energy inefficiency toward more effective and adaptable AI-based traffic control systems.

Wang, Hong [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), ↗

Narrowing Frequency Probability Density Function for Achieving Minimized Uncertainties in Power Systems Operation – a Stochastic Distribution Control Perspective

With the increased penetration of renewables and other distributed energy resources (DERs), the frequency response in power systems exhibits stochastic nature, where the standard deterministic swing equation should be either represented or transferred into an Ito stochastic differential equation whose solution should be the non-stationary transient behavior of the probability density function (PDF) of the frequency. This transfers the frequency quality control for power systems into a stochastic distribution control problem, where the shape of the frequency distribution, namely the frequency PDF, needs to be directly controlled. In this context, this requires the development of control strategies via controlling the power balance so that the PDF of the frequency is made as narrow as possible whilst centered at its required mean value simple because such a sharp distribution shape means less uncertainties or randomness for the frequency response. In this paper, the formulation of the stochastic swing equation will be made first taking into account of DERs. This will then be followed by the development of stochastic distribution control model that links the power sources with the PDF of the frequency using Fokker Planck Kolmogorov (FPK) equations. A generic constrained optimization problem will be formulated where the cost function is composed of a functional distance between the actual and the desired PDFs of the frequency. A feasible solution using B-spine Neural Networks based stochastic distribution control model will be described. Using the obtained stochastic distribution control model, a set of control algorithms will be described that uses available power sources to shape the PDF of the frequency or to minimize the randomness of the frequency via minimized entropy approach. Future directions will be discussed in the later part of the paper

Swing equation, Power Systems, stchastic distribut↗

Risk aware net load balancing in micro grids with high DER penetration

The rapid transformation of micro grids due to the accelerated integration of renewables, storage systems and IoT enabled monitoring and control has opened up new opportunities as well as challenges. Future micro grids will be characterized by high DER penetration and will require sophisticated net load balancing frameworks which explicitly consider the errors in prediction of load and generation due to uncertainty in weather conditions while making decisions. Traditional techniques for grid net load management which rely on isolated shaping of load and supply curves are inadequate and inefficient. For micro grids with high PV penetration, the intermittent and unpredictable nature of PV based energy generation can lead to dramatic and sudden supply demand imbalances thus requiring a holistic framework for balancing net load over the entire horizon. In this paper, we develop a sequential decision making framework for net load management that optimally balances the usage of storage and energy market transactions as a mechanism for mitigating supply demand imbalances (net load imbalances) over the horizon. Our framework specifically accounts for prediction uncertainty of future net load imbalances and minimizes the tail end risk of storage shortfall at the end of the horizon. Using qualitative analysis, we show that our framework achieves its objective of minimum cost net load balancing while accounting for the tail end risk.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Multi-Dimensional Calibration of Impact Dynamic Models

NASA Langley, under the Subsonic Rotary Wing Program, recently completed two helicopter tests in support of an in-house effort to study crashworthiness. As part of this effort, work is on-going to investigate model calibration approaches and calibration metrics for impact dynamics models. Model calibration of impact dynamics problems has traditionally assessed model adequacy by comparing time histories from analytical predictions to test at only a few critical locations. Although this approach provides for a direct measure of the model predictive capability, overall system behavior is only qualitatively assessed using full vehicle animations. In order to understand the spatial and temporal relationships of impact loads as they migrate throughout the structure, a more quantitative approach is needed. In this work impact shapes derived from simulated time history data are used to recommend sensor placement and to assess model adequacy using time based metrics and orthogonality multi-dimensional metrics. An approach for model calibration is presented that includes metric definitions, uncertainty bounds, parameter sensitivity, and numerical optimization to estimate parameters to reconcile test with analysis. The process is illustrated using simulated experiment data.

Horta, Lucas G.↗

The ellipticity of galaxy cluster haloes from satellite galaxies and weak lensing

Here, we study the ellipticity of galaxy cluster haloes as characterized by the distribution of cluster galaxies and as measured with weak lensing. We use Monte Carlo simulations of elliptical cluster density profiles to estimate and correct for Poisson noise bias, edge bias and projection effects. We apply our methodology to 10 428 Sloan Digital Sky Survey clusters identified by the redMaPPer algorithm with richness above 20. We find a mean ellipticity =0.271 ± 0.002 (stat) ±0.031 (sys) corresponding to an axis ratio = 0.573 ± 0.002 (stat) ±0.039 (sys). We compare this ellipticity of the satellites to the halo shape, through a stacked lensing measurement using optimal estimators of the lensing quadrupole based on Clampitt and Jain (2016). We find a best-fitting axis ratio of 0.56 ± 0.09 (stat) ±0.03 (sys), consistent with the ellipticity of the satellite distribution. Thus, cluster galaxies trace the shape of the dark matter halo to within our estimated uncertainties. Finally, we restack the satellite and lensing ellipticity measurements along the major axis of the cluster central galaxy's light distribution. From the lensing measurements, we infer a misalignment angle with an root-mean-square of 30° ± 10° when stacking on the central galaxy. We discuss applications of halo shape measurements to test the effects of the baryonic gas and active galactic nucleus feedback, as well as dark matter and gravity. The major improvements in signal-to-noise ratio expected with the ongoing Dark Energy Survey and future surveys from Large Synoptic Survey Telescope, Euclid, and Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope will make halo shapes a useful probe of these effects.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Extravehicular Activity Asteroid Exploration and Sample Collection Capability

NASA's Asteroid Redirect Crewed Mission (ARCM) is challenged with primary mission objectives of demonstrating deep space Extravehicular Activity (EVA) and tools, and obtaining asteroid samples to return to Earth for further study. Although the Modified Advanced Crew Escape Suit (MACES) is used for the EVAs, it has limited mobility which increases fatigue and decreases the crews' capability to perform EVA tasks. Furthermore, previous Shuttle and International Space Station (ISS) spacewalks have benefited from EVA interfaces which have been designed and manufactured on Earth. Rigid structurally mounted handrails, and tools with customized interfaces and restraints optimize EVA performance. For ARCM, some vehicle interfaces and tools can leverage heritage designs and experience. However, when the crew ventures onto an asteroid capture bag to explore the asteroid and collect rock samples, EVA complexity increases due to the uncertainty of the asteroid properties. The variability of rock size, shape and composition, as well as bunching of the fabric bag will complicate EVA translation, tool restraint and body stabilization. The unknown asteroid hardness and brittleness will complicate tool use. The rock surface will introduce added safety concerns for cut gloves and debris control. Feasible solutions to meet ARCM EVA objectives were identified using experience gained during Apollo, Shuttle, and ISS EVAs, terrestrial mountaineering practices, NASA Extreme Environment Mission Operations (NEEMO) 16 mission, and during Neutral Buoyancy Laboratory testing in the MACES suit. The proposed concept utilizes expandable booms and integrated features of the asteroid capture bag to position and restrain the crew at the asteroid worksite. These methods enable the capability to perform both finesse, and high load tasks necessary to collect samples for scientific characterization of the asteroid. This paper will explore the design trade space and options that were examined for EVA, the overall concept for the EVAs including translation paths and body restraint methods, potential tools used to extract the samples, design implications for the Asteroid Redirect Vehicle (ARV) for EVA, the results of early development testing of potential EVA tasks, and extensibility of the EVA architecture to NASA's exploration missions.

Scoville, Zebulon↗

The Convolutional Multiple Whole Profile (CMWP) Fitting Method, a Global Optimization Procedure for Microstructure Determination

The analysis of line broadening in X-ray and neutron diffraction patterns using profile functions constructed on the basis of well-established physical principles and TEM observations of lattice defects has proven to be a powerful tool for characterizing microstructures in crystalline materials. These principles are applied in the convolutional multiple-whole-profile (CMWP) procedure to determine dislocation densities, crystallite size, stacking fault and twin boundary densities, and intergranular strains. The different lattice defect contributions to line broadening are separated by considering the hkl dependence of strain anisotropy, planar defect broadening and peak shifts, and the defect dependent profile shapes. The Levenberg–Marquardt (LM) peak fitting procedure can be used successfully to determine crystal defect types and densities as long as the diffraction patterns are relatively simple. However, in more complicated cases like hexagonal materials or multiple-phase patterns, using the LM procedure alone may cause uncertainties. Here, we extended the CMWP procedure by including a Monte Carlo statistical method where the LM and a Monte Carlo algorithm were combined in an alternating manner. The updated CMWP procedure eliminated uncertainties and provided global optimized parameters of the microstructure in good correlation with electron microscopy methods.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Samoa Updater: An Application of the Levenberg-Marquardt Method to Update DELFIC Predictions Using Field Measurements

The US Department of Energy (DOE) Forensics Operations (DFO) is a member of the Ground Collections Task Force (GCTF), which is responsible for sample collection of radiological debris for attribution should a nuclear detonation ever occur in the United States. The DFO runs the Defense Land Fallout Interpretive Code (DELFIC) Fallout Planning Tool to predict the deposition of fallout from a nuclear detonation. This prediction is refined using the DELFIC Updater tool, which takes ground measurements and adjusts DELFIC inputs to minimize the difference between prediction and observation, yielding improved predictions of fallout in locations both measured and not yet measured. Samoa, a framework for uncertainty analysis and optimization, is used to improve DELFIC predictive fallout modeling. This new capability using Samoa, dubbed “Samoa Updater,” is compared with the current DELFIC Updater, a brute-force sampling approach. Samoa Updater uses the Levenberg– Marquardt (LM) method, a gradient-based nonlinear least squares approach that uses the functional shape of the input space to increase optimization speed. In simulated test cases Samoa Updater yields faster and more accurate solutions than the current Updater.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗