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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2025

Bonding and reactivity of isostructural uranyl and neptunyl peroxide phases

Understanding the reactivity of actinide peroxides is critical for predicting the behavior of spent nuclear fuel in radiolytic environments. Herein, we report the synthesis and characterization of a lithium neptunyl(VI) hydroxo peroxo compound (LiNp), which is isostructural to the uranyl analogue (LiU). Single-crystal X-ray diffraction reveals that LiNp contains both [NpO 2 (O 2 ) 3 ] 4- and [NpO 2 (OH) 4 ] 2- units stabilized by Li + and hydrogen bonding and Raman spectroscopy shows systematic redshifts in neptunyl vibrational modes relative to uranyl. DFT calculations highlight the importance of secondary coordination in reproducing vibrational and structural features, but challenges remain with correctly modeling strong sigma donors. Solid-state EPR spectroscopy and DFT confirm superoxide stabilization within LiU and calculations suggest favorability of the analogous radical species in LiNp. Solution state EPR spectroscopy with the radical spin trap 5-tert-butoxycarbonyl-5-methyl-1-pyrroline N-oxide (BMPO) reveal evidence of superoxide in the LiU and LiNp phases and suggests stabilization of superoxide within actinyl triperoxide complexes, forming [AnO 2 (O 2 ) 2 (O) 2 • ] 3- .

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

DESI DR1 Lyα 1D power spectrum: the optimal estimator measurement

The one-dimensional power spectrum P 1D of Lyα forest offers rich insights into cosmological and astrophysical parameters, including constraints on the sum of neutrino masses, warm dark matter models, and the thermal state of the intergalactic medium. We present the measurement of P 1D using the optimal quadratic maximum likelihood estimator applied to over 300,000 Lyα quasars from Data Release 1 (DR1) of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) survey. This sample represents the largest to date for P 1D measurements and is larger than the Extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (eBOSS) by a factor of 1.7. We conduct a meticulous investigation of instrumental and analysis systematics and quantify their impact on P 1D . This includes the development of a cross-exposure estimator that eliminates the need to model the pipeline noise and has strong potential for future P 1D measurements. We also present new insights into metal contamination through the 1D correlation function. Using a fitting function we measure the evolution of the Lyα forest bias with high precision: b F (z) = (-0.218 ± 0.002) × ((1 + z)/4) 2.96±0.06 . In a companion validation paper, we substantially extend our previous suite of CCD image simulations to quantify the pipeline's exquisite performance accurately. In another companion paper, we present DR1 P 1D measurements using the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) approach to power spectrum estimation. These two measurements produce a forest bias parameter that differs by 2.2 sigma. However, our model is simplistic, so this disagreement will be investigated in future work.

Lyman alpha forest↗
DOE OSTI2024

On the statistical theory of self-gravitating collisionless dark matter flow: Scale and redshift variation of velocity and density distributions

The statistics of velocity and density fields are crucial for cosmic structure formation and evolution. Here, this paper extends our previous work on the two-point second-order statistics for the velocity field [Phys. Fluids 35, 077105 (2023)] to one-point probability distributions for both density and velocity fields. The scale and redshift variation of density and velocity distributions are studied by a halo-based non-projection approach. First, all particles are divided into halo and out-of-halo particles so that the redshift variation can be studied via generalized kurtosis of distributions for halo and out-of-halo particles, respectively. Second, without projecting particle fields onto a structured grid, the scale variation is analyzed by identifying all particle pairs on different scales $r$. We demonstrate that: (i) Delaunay tessellation can be used to reconstruct the density field. The density correlation, spectrum, and dispersion functions were obtained, modeled, and compared with the N-body simulation; (ii) the velocity distributions are symmetric on both small and large scales and are non-symmetric with a negative skewness on intermediate scales due to the inverse energy cascade on small scales with a constant rate $\varepsilon_u$; (iii) On small scales, the even order moments of pairwise velocity $\Delta u_L$ follow a two-thirds law $\propto{(-\varepsilon_ur)}^{2/3}$, while the odd order moments follow a linear scaling $\langle(\Delta u_L)^{2n+1}\rangle=(2n+1)\langle(\Delta u_L)^{2n}\rangle\langle\Delta u_L\rangle\propto{r}$; (iv) The scale variation of the velocity distributions was studied for longitudinal velocities $u_L$ or $u_L^{'}$, pairwise velocity (velocity difference) $\Delta u_L$=$u_L^{'}$-$u_L$ and velocity sum $\Sigma u_L$=$u^{'}_L$+$u_L$. Fully developed velocity fields are never Gaussian on any scale, despite that they can initially be Gaussian; (v) On small scales, $u_L$ and $\Sigma u_L$ can be modeled by a $X$ distribution to maximize the entropy of the system. The distribution of $\Delta u_L$ can be different; (vi) On large scales, $\Delta u_L$ and $\Sigma u_L$ can be modeled by a logistic or a $X$ distribution, while $u_L$ has a different distribution; (vii) the redshift variation of the velocity distributions follows the evolution of the $X$ distribution involving a shape parameter $\alpha(z)$ decreasing with time.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data-driven high-dimensional statistical inference with generative models

Crucial to many measurements at the LHC is the use of correlated multi-dimensional information to distinguish rare processes from large backgrounds, which is complicated by the poor modeling of many of the crucial backgrounds in Monte Carlo simulations. In this work, we introduce HI-SIGMA, a method to perform unbinned high-dimensional statistical inference with data-driven background distributions. In contradistinction to many applications of Simulation Based Inference in High Energy Physics, HI-SIGMA relies on generative ML models, rather than classifiers, to learn the signal and background distributions in the high-dimensional space. These ML models allow for interpretable inference while also incorporating model errors and other sources of systematic uncertainties. We showcase this methodology on a simplified version of a di-Higgs measurement in the bbγγ final state, where the di-photon resonance allows for background interpolation from sidebands into the signal region. We demonstrate that HI-SIGMA provides improved sensitivity as compared to standard classifier-based methods, and that systematic uncertainties can be straightforwardly incorporated by extending methods which have been used for histogram based analyses.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Dark Energy Survey Supernova Program: Cosmological Analysis and Systematic Uncertainties

We present the full Hubble diagram of photometrically classified Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) from the Dark Energy Survey supernova program (DES-SN). DES-SN discovered more than 20,000 SN candidates and obtained spectroscopic redshifts of 7000 host galaxies. Based on the light-curve quality, we select 1635 photometrically identified SNe Ia with spectroscopic redshift 0.10 < z < 1.13, which is the largest sample of supernovae from any single survey and increases the number of known z > 0.5 supernovae by a factor of 5. In a companion paper, we present cosmological results of the DES-SN sample combined with 194 spectroscopically classified SNe Ia at low redshift as an anchor for cosmological fits. Here we present extensive modeling of this combined sample and validate the entire analysis pipeline used to derive distances. We show that the statistical and systematic uncertainties on cosmological parameters are ${\sigma }_{{{\rm{\Omega }}}_{M},\mathrm{stat}+\mathrm{sys}}^{{\rm{\Lambda }}\mathrm{CDM}}=$ 0.017 in a flat ΛCDM model, and $({\sigma }_{{{\rm{\Omega }}}_{M}},{\sigma }_{w}{)}_{\mathrm{stat}+\mathrm{sys}}^{w\mathrm{CDM}}$ = (0.082, 0.152) in a flat wCDM model. Combining the DES SN data with the highly complementary cosmic microwave background measurements by Planck Collaboration reduces by a factor of 4 uncertainties on cosmological parameters. In all cases, statistical uncertainties dominate over systematics. We show that uncertainties due to photometric classification make up less than 10% of the total systematic uncertainty budget. This result sets the stage for the next generation of SN cosmology surveys such as the Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

The dark energy survey: detection of weak lensing magnification of supernovae and constraints on dark matter haloes

The residuals of the distance moduli of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) relative to a Hubble diagram fit contain information about the inhomogeneity of the Universe, due to weak lensing magnification by foreground matter. By correlating the residuals of the Dark Energy Survey Year 5 SN Ia sample (DES-SN5YR) with extragalactic foregrounds from the DES Y3 Gold catalogue, we detect the presence of lensing at |$6.0 \sigma$| significance. This is the first detection with a significance level above |$5\sigma$|⁠. Constraints on the effective mass-to-light ratios and radial profiles of dark matter haloes surrounding individual galaxies are also obtained. We show that the scatter of SNe Ia around the Hubble diagram is reduced by modifying the standardization of the distance moduli to include an easily calculable de-lensing (i.e. environmental) term. We use the de-lensed distance moduli to recompute cosmological parameters derived from SN Ia, finding in Flat wcold dark matter a difference of |$\Delta \Omega _{\rm M} = +0.036$| and |$\Delta w = -0.056$| compared to the unmodified distance moduli, a change of |$\sim 0.3\sigma$|⁠. We argue that our modelling of SN Ia lensing will lower systematics on future surveys with higher statistical power. We use the observed dispersion of lensing in DES-SN5YR to constrain |$\sigma _8$|⁠, but caution that the fit is sensitive to uncertainties at small scales. Nevertheless, our detection of SN Ia lensing opens a new pathway to study matter inhomogeneity that complements galaxy–galaxy lensing surveys and has unrelated systematics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Stochastic machine learning via sigma profiles to build a digital chemical space

This work establishes a different paradigm on digital molecular spaces and their efficient navigation by exploiting sigma profiles. To do so, the remarkable capability of Gaussian processes (GPs), a type of stochastic machine learning model, to correlate and predict physicochemical properties from sigma profiles is demonstrated, outperforming state-of-the-art neural networks previously published. The amount of chemical information encoded in sigma profiles eases the learning burden of machine learning models, permitting the training of GPs on small datasets which, due to their negligible computational cost and ease of implementation, are ideal models to be combined with optimization tools such as gradient search or Bayesian optimization (BO). Gradient search is used to efficiently navigate the sigma profile digital space, quickly converging to local extrema of target physicochemical properties. While this requires the availability of pretrained GP models on existing datasets, such limitations are eliminated with the implementation of BO, which can find global extrema with a limited number of iterations. A remarkable example of this is that of BO toward boiling temperature optimization. Holding no knowledge of chemistry except for the sigma profile and boiling temperature of carbon monoxide (the worst possible initial guess), BO finds the global maximum of the available boiling temperature dataset (over 1,000 molecules encompassing more than 40 families of organic and inorganic compounds) in just 15 iterations (i.e., 15 property measurements), cementing sigma profiles as a powerful digital chemical space for molecular optimization and discovery, particularly when little to no experimental data is initially available.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dark energy survey year 3 results: cosmology from galaxy clustering and galaxy–galaxy lensing in harmonic space

We present the joint tomographic analysis of galaxy-galaxy lensing and galaxy clustering in harmonic space (HS), using galaxy catalogues from the first three years of observations by the Dark Energy Survey (DES Y3). We utilize the redMaGiC and MagLim catalogues as lens galaxies and the metacalibration catalogue as source galaxies. The measurements of angular power spectra are performed using the pseudo-$C_\ell$ method, and our theoretical modelling follows the fiducial analyses performed by DES Y3 in configuration space, accounting for galaxy bias, intrinsic alignments, magnification bias, shear magnification bias and photometric redshift uncertainties. We explore different approaches for scale cuts based on non-linear galaxy bias and baryonic effects contamination. Our fiducial covariance matrix is computed analytically, accounting for mask geometry in the Gaussian term, and including non-Gaussian contributions and super-sample covariance terms. To validate our HS pipelines and covariance matrix, we used a suite of 1800 log-normal simulations. We also perform a series of stress tests to gauge the robustness of our HS analysis. In the $\Lambda$CDM model, the clustering amplitude $S_8 =\sigma _8(\Omega _m/0.3)^{0.5}$ is constrained to $S_8 = 0.704\pm 0.029$ and $S_8 = 0.753\pm 0.024$ (68 per cent C.L.) for the redMaGiC and MagLim catalogues, respectively. For the wCDM, the dark energy equation of state is constrained to $w = -1.28 \pm 0.29$ and $w = -1.26^{+0.34}_{-0.27}$, for redMaGiC and MagLim catalogues, respectively. These results are compatible with the corresponding DES Y3 results in configuration space and pave the way for HS analyses using the DES Y6 data.

(cosmology:) cosmological parameters↗
DOE OSTI2026

$\Sigma ^{+}$ production in pp collisions at $\sqrt{\textit{s}}=13$ TeV

The measurement of $\Sigma ^{+}$ production in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV is presented. The measurement is performed at midrapidity in both minimum-bias and high-multiplicity pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV. The $\Sigma ^{+}$ is reconstructed via its weak-decay topology in the decay channel $\Sigma ^{+} \rightarrow \mathrm{{p}} + \pi ^{0}$ with $\pi ^{0} \rightarrow \gamma + \gamma$. In a novel approach, the neutral pion is reconstructed by combining photons that convert in the detector material with photons measured in the calorimeters. The transverse-momentum $(p_{\textrm{T}})$ distributions of the $\Sigma ^{+}$ and its rapidity densities dN/dy in both event classes are reported. The $p_{\textrm{T}}$ spectrum in minimum-bias collisions is compared to QCD-inspired event generators. The ratio of $\Sigma ^{+}$ to previously measured Λ baryons is in good agreement with calculations from the Statistical Hadronization Model. The high efficiency and purity of the novel reconstruction method for $\Sigma ^{+}$ presented here will enable future studies of the interaction of $\Sigma ^{+}$ with protons in the context of femtoscopic measurements, which could be crucial for understanding the equation of state of neutron stars.

Abualrob, I. J. [University of Houston] (ORCID:000↗
DOE OSTI2025

Early time solution as an alternative to the late time evolving dark energy with DESI DR2 BAO

Recently the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) provided constraints on the expansion history from their Data Release 2 (DR2). The DESI baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurements are well described by a flat $\Lambda$CDM model, but the preferred parameters are in mild ($2.3\sigma$) tension with those determined from the cosmic microwave background (CMB). The DESI collaboration has already explored a variety of solutions to this tension relying on variations in the late-time evolution of dark energy. Here we test an alternative -- the introduction of an ``early dark energy'' (EDE) component. We find that EDE models can alleviate the tension, though they lead to differences in other cosmological parameters that have observational implications. Particularly the EDE models that fit the acoustic datasets prefer lower $\Omega_m$, higher $H_0$, $n_s$ and $\sigma_8$ in contrast to the late-time solutions. We discuss the current status and near-future prospects for distinguishing amongst these solutions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

$\overline{\Sigma }^{\pm }$ production in $\text {pp}$ and $\text {p}{-}\text{Pb}$ collisions at $\sqrt{s_{\textrm{NN}}} = 5.02$ TeV with ALICE

The transverse momentum spectra and integrated yields of anti-$Σ$ hyperons ($\overline{\Sigma}^{\pm}$) have been measured in and collisions at $\sqrt{s_{\textrm{NN}}} = 5.02$ TeV with the ALICE experiment. Measurements are performed via the newly accessed decay channel $\overline{\Sigma}^{\pm}$ → $\bar{\textrm{n}}π^±$. A new method of antineutron reconstruction with the PHOS electromagnetic spectrometer is developed and applied to this analysis. The p T spectra of $\overline{\Sigma}^{\pm}$ are measured in the range 0.5 < p T < 3 GeV/c and compared to predictions of the PYTHIA 8, DPMJET, PHOJET, EPOS LHC and EPOS4 models. The EPOS LHC and EPOS4 models provide the best descriptions of the measured spectra both in pp and p-Pb collisions, while models which do not account for multiparton interactions provide a considerably worse description at high p T . The total yields of $\overline{\Sigma }^{\pm }$ in both pp and p-Pb collisions are compared to predictions of the Thermal-FIST model and dynamical models PYTHIA 8, DPMJET, PHOJET, EPOS LHC and EPOS4. All models reproduce the total yields in both colliding systems within uncertainties. The nuclear modification factors R pPb for both $\overline{\Sigma}^{+}$ and $\overline{\Sigma}^{-}$ are evaluated and compared to those of protons, $Λ$ and $Ξ$ hyperons, and predictions of EPOS LHC and EPOS4 models. No deviations of R pPb for $\overline{\Sigma}^{\pm}$ from the model predictions or measurements for other hadrons are found within uncertainties.

Abualrob, I. J. [University of Houston] (ORCID:000↗
DOE OSTI2024

Asymmetric drift in MaNGA: mass and radially dependent stratification rates in galaxy discs

ABSTRACT We measure the age–velocity relationship from the lag between ionized gas and stellar tangential speeds in ∼500 nearby disc galaxies from MaNGA in Sloan Digital Sky Survey IV (SDSS-IV). Selected galaxies are kinematically axisymmetric. Velocity lags are asymmetric drift, seen in the Milky Way’s (MW) solar neighbourhood and other Local Group galaxies; their amplitude correlates with stellar population age. The trend is qualitatively consistent in rate ($\dot{\sigma }$) with a simple power-law model where σ ∝ tb that explains the dynamical phase-space stratification in the solar neighbourhood. The model is generalized based on disc dynamical times to other radii and other galaxies. We find in-plane radial stratification parameters σ0,r (dispersion of the youngest populations) in the range of 10–40 km s−1 and 0.2 < br < 0.5 for MaNGA galaxies. Overall, brincreases with galaxy mass, decreases with radius for galaxies above 10.4 dex (M⊙) in stellar mass, but is ∼constant with radius at lower mass. The measurement scatter indicates the stratification model is too simple to capture the complexity seen in the data, unsurprising given the many possible astrophysical processes that may lead to stellar population dynamical stratification. None the less, the data show dynamical stratification is broadly present in the galaxy population, with systematic trends in mass and density. The amplitude of the asymmetric drift signal is larger for the MaNGA sample than the MW, and better represented in the mean by what is observed in the discs of M31 and M33. Either typical discs have higher surface-density or, more likely, are dynamically hotter (hence thicker) than the MW.

Bershady, Matthew A. (ORCID:0000000231314374)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Open-source generation of sigma profiles: impact of quantum chemistry and solvation treatment on machine learning performance

The combination of machine learning (ML) models with chemistry-related tasks requires the description of molecular structures in a machine-readable way. The nature of these so-called molecular descriptors has a direct and major impact on the performance of ML models and remains an open problem in the field. Structural descriptors like SMILES strings or molecular graphs lack size-independence and can be memory intensive. Machine-learned descriptors can be of low dimensionality and constant size but lack physical significance and human interpretability. Sigma profiles, which are unnormalized histograms of the surface charge distributions of solvated molecules, combine physical significance with low dimensionality and size-independence, making them a suitable candidate for a universal molecular descriptor. However, their widespread adoption in ML applications requires open access to sigma profile generation, which is currently not available. This work details the development of OpenSPGen – an open-source tool for generating sigma profiles. Also presented are studies on the effect of different settings on the efficacy of the generated sigma profiles at predicting thermophysical material properties when used as inputs to a Gaussian process as a simple surrogate ML model. We find that a higher level of theory does not translate to more accurate results. We also provide further recommendations for sigma profile calculation and use in ML models.

Salih, Fathya Y. M. [University of Notre Dame, IN ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Leveraging Natural Language Processing and Generative Models in Molecular Chemistry: Property Prediction and Novel Compound Generation

The accurate prediction of molecular properties is important for the rational design and the advancement of green chemistry and sustainable materials research. However, the predictive power of traditional computational chemistry methods is limited due to computational restrictions. Here, in this study, we examine an alternative approach to the accurate prediction of properties of organic compounds: natural language processing (NLP)-based molecular embedding. Using viscosity, partition coefficient (log P), and enthalpy of vaporization as test properties through a survey of comprehensive datasets comprising 5695 data points for viscosity, 25 870 data points for log P, and 2296 data points for enthalpy of vaporization. These are important properties for the design of greener, safer, and sustainable chemical processes. Models were trained using NLP methods such as Mol2vec and fine-tuned ChemBERTa, and results were compared with traditional input featurization techniques such as Morgan fingerprints and quantum chemistry derived sigma profiles and DFT features. Among the various machine learning models, Mol2vec demonstrated superior predictive capabilities, achieving the highest correlation coefficient (R 2 = 0.945) and lowest RMSE (0.106 mPa s) for viscosity, as well as high accuracy for log P and enthalpy of vaporization predictions. These findings establish the Mol2vec featurization technique, graph-convolutional neural networks (GCNN), and fine-tuned ChemBERTa model as powerful tools for predictive modeling of organic compounds properties, offering a significant improvement over previously used featurization techniques and opening up strategies for very-high-throughput computational screening. Finally, we integrated ML models with hybrid language-model-based generative adversarial networks (LM-GAN) to generate novel molecular sequences with desirable properties for different research applications. The ability to computationally design solvents with lower viscosity, lower log P, and lower enthalpy of vaporization offers a data-driven route to accelerating the discovery of sustainable alternatives to traditionally toxic solvents.

ChemBERTa↗
DOE OSTI2025

CALPHAD-based Bayesian optimization to accelerate alloy discovery for high-temperature applications

Two crucial properties influencing the performance of high-temperature alloys are coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) and phase constitution. It is desirable to have alloys with low CTE, which reduces CTE mismatch with the surface oxide and the likelihood of oxide spallation. Reducing the amount of brittle intermetallic phases such as Sigma (σ) enhances alloy ductility and processability. Here, we propose a multi-objective Bayesian Optimization (BO) model to simultaneously minimize CTE (at an operational temperature of 1150 °C) and T σ (temperature when the Sigma phase completely dissolves in the metal matrix), properties which are obtained from high-throughput CALculation of PHAse Diagrams (CALPHAD). The model successfully identifies several alloys with CTE ≤ 2 × 10 –5 /K and T σ ≤ 500 °C by exploring just 7% of the nickel–chromium–cobalt–aluminum–iron (Ni–Cr–Co–Al–Fe) composition space. Such multi-objective alloy design frameworks can be used to inform additive manufacturing experiments and accelerate alloy discovery for high-temperature energy applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Safe Reinforcement Learning-Based Transient Stability Control for Islanded Microgrids With Topology Reconfiguration

This paper proposes a safe reinforcement learning (RL)-based transient stability emergency control (TSEC) method for islanded microgrids. RL requires extensive interaction with the environment to learn control strategies, hence, a data-driven approach is used as a substitute for time-consuming time-domain simulation calculations. Deep sigma point processes (DSPP), which is a Gaussian process model, is utilized to predict the normal distribution of transient stability of microgrids and to construct a transient stability chance constraint. Reward-constrained policy optimization (RCPO) can simultaneously achieve objective prediction, policy learning, and constraint cost coefficient update across multiple timescales. RCPO interacts with the DSPP-based microgrid environment through a multi-process parallel manner, greatly increasing the training speed. Case studies on a real islanded microgrid demonstrate that the proposed method can efficiently and quickly obtain the optimal emergency control strategy while adhering to all hard constraints.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Forecasting constraints on the high-z IGM thermal state from the Lyman-α forest flux autocorrelation function

ABSTRACT The autocorrelation function of the Lyman-$\alpha$ (Ly $\alpha$) forest flux from high-z quasars probes the small-scale structure of the intergalactic medium (IGM). The thermal state of the IGM, determined by the physics of reionization, sets the small-scale power observed in the Ly $\alpha$ forest. To explore the sensitivity of the autocorrelation function to the IGM’s thermal state, we compute the autocorrelation function from a cosmological hydrodynamical simulation with an instantaneous reionization model and 135 post-processed thermal states. Using mock data sets of 20 quasars, we forecast constraints on $T_0$ and $\gamma$, which characterize the post-processed IGM thermal state, at $5.4 \le z \le 6$. While this model simplifies the IGM’s thermal state, it serves as a key first step in assessing future observational prospects. We also perform an inference test on mocks and re-weight out posterior distributions to guarantee that they exhibit statistically correct behaviour. At $z = 5.4$, we find that an idealized data set constrains $T_0$ to 59 per cent and $\gamma$ to 16 per cent at the 1$\sigma$ equivalent confidence level. To explore more realistic, non-instantaneous reionization scenarios, we analyse four models combining temperature and ultraviolet background (UVB) fluctuations at $z = 5.8$. We find that mock data generated from a model with both temperature and UVB fluctuations can rule out a model with only temperature fluctuations at the $> 1\sigma$ level 73.9 per cent of the time.

Wolfson, Molly↗