An investigation of the Sutcliffe development theory
Two case studies were used to test the Sutcliffe-Peterssen development theory for both cyclonic and anticyclonic development over the eastern United States. Each term was examined to determine when and where it made a significant contribution to the development process. Results indicate the advection of vorticity at the level of non-divergence exerts the dominant influence for initial cyclone development, and that the thermal terms (advection of thickness, stability, and diabatic influence) become important after development has begun. Anticyclonic development, however, depends primarily on the stability term throughout the life cycle of the anticyclone. Simple procedures for forecasting the development and movement of cyclones and anticyclones are listed. These rules indicate that routine National Meteorological Center analyses may be used to locate areas where the positive advection of 500-mb vorticity, indicative of cyclonic development, coincides with regions of severe weather activity. The development of anticyclones also is predicted easily. Regions of increasing stability, indicating anticyclonic development, may be located by use of National Meteorological Center radar summaries and analyses for 1000-500-mb thickness. A test of these techniques found them to be satisfactory for the case examined.