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The basic physics of the environmental perturbations caused by multiple nuclear detonations is explored, summarizing current knowledge of the possible physical, chemical, and biological impacts of nuclear war. Emphasis is given to the impact of the bomb-generated smoke (soot) particles. General classes of models that have been used to simulate nuclear winter are examined, using specific models as examples.
The mean time since air in the Martian atmosphere was in the low-latitude boundary layer is examined using simulations of an idealized “mean age” tracer with the MarsWRF general circulation model. The spatial distribution and seasonality of the mean age in low- and mid-latitudes broadly follow contours of the mean meridional circulation, with the mean age increasing from 0 at the surface to a maximum of 60–100 sols in the upper atmosphere. Substantially older mean ages (exceeding 300 sols) are found in polar regions, with oldest ages in the lower atmosphere (10–100 Pa), above a near-surface layer with very young ages (around 20 sols). The annual maximum ages occur around the equinoxes, and the age in the polar lower atmosphere decreases during the autumn to winter transition. This autumn-winter decrease in age occurs because of mixing of polar and mid-latitude air when the polar vortex exhibits an annulus of high potential vorticity (PV) with a local minimum near the pole. There is no autumn-winter decrease and old ages persist throughout autumn and winter in simulations with CO2 phase changes disabled, and thus no latent heating, where there is a monopolar vortex (i.e., a monotonic increase in PV from equator to pole) forms. The altitudinal and seasonal variations in the mean age indicates similar variations in the transport of dust into polar regions and the mixing of polar air (with, e.g., low water vapor and high ozone concentrations during winter) into mid-latitudes.
During the research project, sounding datasets were generated for the region surrounding 9 major airports, including Dallas, TX, Boston, MA, New York, NY, Chicago, IL, St. Louis, MO, Atlanta, GA, Miami, FL, San Francico, CA, and Los Angeles, CA. The numerical simulation of winter and summer environments during which no instrument flight rule impact was occurring at these 9 terminals was performed using the most contemporary version of the Terminal Area PBL Prediction System (TAPPS) model nested from 36 km to 6 km to 1 km horizontal resolution and very detailed vertical resolution in the planetary boundary layer. The soundings from the 1 km model were archived at 30 minute time intervals for a 24 hour period and the vertical dependent variables as well as derived quantities, i.e., 3-dimensional wind components, temperatures, pressures, mixing ratios, turbulence kinetic energy and eddy dissipation rates were then interpolated to 5 m vertical resolution up to 1000 m elevation above ground level. After partial validation against field experiment datasets for Dallas as well as larger scale and much coarser resolution observations at the other 8 airports, these sounding datasets were sent to NASA for use in the Virtual Air Space and Modeling program. The application of these datasets being to determine representative airport weather environments to diagnose the response of simulated wake vortices to realistic atmospheric environments. These virtual datasets are based on large scale observed atmospheric initial conditions that are dynamically interpolated in space and time. The 1 km nested-grid simulated datasets providing a very coarse and highly smoothed representation of airport environment meteorological conditions. Details concerning the airport surface forcing are virtually absent from these simulated datasets although the observed background atmospheric processes have been compared to the simulated fields and the fields were found to accurately replicate the flows surrounding the airport where coarse verification data were available as well as where airport scale datasets were available.
The Corps Battle Simulation (CBS) simulates ground and air battles between modern military.
Interception of sunlight by the high altitude worldwide dust cloud generated by impact of a large asteroid or comet would lead to substantial land surface cooling, according to our three-dimensional atmospheric general circulation model (GCM). This result is qualitatively similar to conclusions drawn from an earlier study that employed a one-dimensional atmospheric model, but in the GCM simulation the heat capacity of the oceans substantially mitigates land surface cooling, an effect that one-dimensional models cannot quantify. On the other hand, the low heat capacity of the GCM's land surface allows temperatures to drop more rapidly in the initial stage of cooling than in the one-dimensional model study. These two differences between three-dimensional and one-dimensional model simulations were noted previously in studies of nuclear winter; GCM-simulated climatic changes in the Alvarez-inspired scenario of asteroid/comet winter, however, are more severe than in nuclear winter because the assumed aerosol amount is large enough to intercept all sunlight falling on earth. Impacts of smaller objects could also lead to dramatic, though less severe, climatic changes, according to our GCM. Our conclusion is that it is difficult to imagine an asteroid or comet impact leading to anything approaching complete global freezing, but quite reasonable to assume that impacts at the Alvarez level, or even smaller, dramatically alter the climate in at least a patchy sense.
Comparative energetics is presented for a series of four general circulation model simulations for January 1979 conducted by the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres. The simulations include cases of coarse and fine horizontal model resolutions with two slightly different initial conditions. Using a three-dimensional normal mode expansion, it is found that the gravity-mode energy levels are significantly reduced in the higher wavenumbers and in the higher-order internal vertical modes by the increase of horizontal model resolution.
The spectral energetics of the Northern Hemisphere circulation during blocking episodes of the FGGE year is investigated with gridded analyses of observational data and parallel simulation experiments. The purpose of this study is to describe the energetics distinctions of the observed and simulated blockings in the context of the general circulation and to assess the capability of the model to simulate blockings. In the observed circulation a pronounced winter blocking is developed and maintained by the nonlinear wave-wave interaction L(1) from the kinetic energy source for n = 3-10, where L(n) is the transfer of eddy kinetic energy from all other wavenumbers to wavenumber n. In the case of the double blocking in the winter, both L(1) and L(2) support the blocking. The kinetic energy source of n = 10 for upscale input at n = 1 and 2 is supported by the baroclinic conversion at n = 3-10. The simulated winter circulation shows strong baroclinic conversion at all wavenumbers, including ultralong waves. However, the simulation fails to produce pronounced blocking for the absence of L(1), and the converted energy cascades down to shorter waves. The wave-mean transfer of kinetic energy from the large-scale disturbances to the zonal mean component further prevents the accumulation of the kinetic energy at the ultralong waves. In contrast to the winter situation, the summer blocking seems to be directly supported by both L(4) and baroclinic conversion at other planetary-scale waves. Consequently, the summer circulation is better simulated than the winter circulation.
The Mars pathfinder MET experiment will make pressure, temperature, and wind measurements on the surface of Mars. The Viking Lander Meteorology Experiment measurements were marked by the presence of variations associated with synoptic weather disturbances throughout the fall and winter season. Numerical simulations of the Mars atmospheric circulation show that the winter midlatitudes are the center of activity for traveling disturbances of planetary scale, disturbances that have their fundamental origin in the baroclinic instability of the wintertime Mars atmospheric circulation. The studies are consistent with Viking observations in that the disturbances decay in amplitude toward lower latitudes. The further north the Mars Pathfinder is located, the more clearly it will be able to detect the signatures of the midlatitude weather system. A landing site close to 15 deg N should allow measurement of the weather disturbances, along with observations of the thermal tides, slope winds, and the relatively steady winds associated with the general circulation - the 'trade winds' of Mars. A landing site near 15 deg N would be significantly further equatorward than the Viking Lander 1 site, and thus would provide more of a view of tropical circulation processes.
Models of varying complexity that simulate water vapor and clouds in the Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL) show that including convection directly is essential to properly simulating the water vapor and cloud distribution. In boreal winter, for example, simulations without convection yield a water vapor distribution that is too uniform with longitude, as well as minimal cloud distributions. Two things are important for convective simulations. First, it is important to get the convective cloud top potential temperature correctly, since unrealistically high values (reaching above the cold point tropopause too frequently) will cause excessive hydration of the stratosphere. Second, one must capture the time variation as well, since hydration by convection depends on the local relative humidity (temperature), which has substantial variation on synoptic time scales in the TTL. This paper describes a method for obtaining high frequency (3-hourly) global convective cloud top distributions which can be used in trajectory models. The method uses rainfall thresholds, standard IR brightness temperatures, meteorological temperature analyses, and physically realistic and documented corrections IR brightness temperature corrections to derive cloud top altitudes and potential temperatures. The cloud top altitudes compare well with combined CLOUDSAT and CALIPSO data, both in time-averaged overall vertical and horizontal distributions and in individual cases (correlations of .65-.7). An important finding is that there is significant uncertainty (nearly .5 km) in evaluating the statistical distribution of convective cloud tops even using lidar. Deep convection whose tops are in regions of high relative humidity (such as much of the TTL), will cause clouds to form above the actual convection. It is often difficult to distinguish these clouds from the actual convective cloud due to the uncertainties of evaluating ice water content from lidar measurements. Comparison with models show that calculated cloud top altitudes are generally higher than those calculated by global analyses (e.g., MERRA). Interannual variability in the distribution of convective cloud top altitudes is also investigated.
Models of varying complexity that simulate water vapor and clouds in the Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL) show that including convection directly is essential to properly simulating the water vapor and cloud distribution. In boreal winter, for example, simulations without convection yield a water vapor distribution that is too uniform with longitude, as well as cloud incidences that are too low. Two things are important for convective simulations. First, it is important to get the convective cloud top potential temperature correctly, since unrealistically high values (reaching above the cold point tropopause too frequently) will cause excessive hydration of the stratosphere. Second, one must capture the time variation as well, since hydration by convection depends on the local relative humidity (temperature), which has substantial variation on synoptic time scales in the TTL. This paper describes a method for obtaining high frequency (3-hourly) global convective cloud top distributions which can be used in trajectory models. The method uses rainfall thresholds, standard IR (infra-red) brightness temperatures, meteorological temperature analyses, and physically realistic and documented corrections to IR brightness temperatures to derive cloud top altitudes and potential temperatures. The cloud top altitudes compare well with combined CLOUDSAT and CALIPSO data, both in time-averaged overall vertical and horizontal distributions and in individual cases (correlations of .65-.7). Results from the method are compared to convective distributions currently used by global models. In general, the method shows that models underestimate convective cloud top altitudes.
The blocking phenomena, in particular winter blocking, are stuided using energetic diagnostics. Sequences of blockings during the FGGE winter and summer in observed and simulated circulations, and energy transformations associated with blockings are examined. It is observed that the simulation of the Northern Hemisphere circulation correlates better with the observed circulation during summer than during winter. It is noted that the observed winter blockings are maintained by the supply of kinetic energy to the ultralong waves from the shorter cyclone scales through nonlinear wave-wave interaction; in the simulated winter blocking, the energy converted at the cyclone scale cascades down to the shorter wave range; and the summer blockings are supported by the baroclinic conversion of long waves in both the observed and simulated circulations.
The radiation balance of the earth-atmosphere system simulated by using the general circulation model (GCM) of the Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences (GLAS) is examined in regards to its graphical distribution, zonally-averaged distribution, and global mean. Most of the main features of the radiation balance at the top of the atmosphere are reasonably simulated, with some differences in the detailed structure of the patterns and intensities for both summer and winter in comparison with values as derived from Nimbus and NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) satellite observations. Both the capability and defects of the model are discussed.
Simulations of the 1999-2000 winter have tested the effect on polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) of the homogeneous freezing of liquid ternary solutions into nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) and nitric acid dihydrate (NAD). Proposed laboratory-derived volume-based and surface-based homogeneous freezing rates have both been examined, including different assumptions about the extrapolation of laboratory measurements to atmospheric conditions. Widespread PSC formation and denitrification are possible in several of the scenarios examined. However, the simulations are all unable to explain the solid-phase PSCs observed early in the 1999-2000 winter, and are unable to reproduce the measured extent of vortex denitrification. These problems can both be attributed to the relatively cold temperatures, more than 5 K below the NAT condensation point, necessary for effective homogeneous freezing. Therefore synoptic-scale homogeneous freezing appears unlikely to be the primary mechanism responsible for solid-phase PSC formation.
The use of Dave's models to evaluate satellite off-nadir remote sensing of green vegetation cover types by simulating the visible and near-infrared advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) NOAA-6 and NOAA-7 radiances for three green-leaf biomass levels and bare soil. Ground measurements of surface reflectances were used. The simulations were done along a scan line at 30 deg latitude during the summer solstice, equinox, and winter solstice. The simulation models are described and the effect of atmosphere over moderately vegetated surfaces is discussed. The results show that sensor response to atmospheric path length can be substantial for the AVHRR visible and near-infrared channels and normalized difference values, but they can be minimized by high sun and clear atmospheric viewing. The results indicate that AVHRR data would be most useful for monitoring low green leaf biomas canopies.
Mars reveals similar, yet also rather different, atmospheric circulation patterns compared to those on Earth. In both atmospheres, solar differential heating drives global Hadley circulation cells. However during solstice on Mars, its Hadley cells are hemispherically asymmetric: an intense, deep, cross-hemisphere single cell dominates with rising motion in the summer hemisphere and sinking motion in the winter hemisphere. Both planets also exhibit thermally indirect (i.e., eddy-driven) Ferrel circulation cells in middle and high latitudes. In addition, Earth and Mars exhibit distinctive large-scale orography and, in a broadly defined context, continentality. For Mars’ northern midlatitudes, Tharsis in the western hemisphere, and Arabia Terra and Elysium in the eastern hemisphere, are the primary large-scale topographic features. In the southern-midlatitudes, Tharsis and Argyre in the western hemisphere, and Hellas in the eastern hemisphere are the key topographic features which can influence large-scale circulation patterns. Such underlying orographic complexes not only cause significant latitudinal excursions of the seasonal mean westerly circumnavigating polar vortex but also significantly modulate the intensity and preferred geographic regions of traveling baroclinic weather systems.
The energetics of a three dimensional, quasi-geostrophic simulation of a sudden stratospheric warming which developed spontaneously during an annual cycle simulation are described. Daily values of the stratospheric temperatures, zonal winds, heating rates, energies, and energy conversions are discussed and compared with those for observed warmings. It is shown that, like observed warmings, the simulated warming was preceded by an increased vertical flux of eddy kinetic energy from the troposphere and the polar heating resulted because of the strong convergence of the horizontal, eddy heat flux which was only partially balanced by adiabatic and diabatic cooling. There is a significant similarity between the energetics of the simulated and observed warmings. In addition, the warming was spontaneous and the model did not develop a major warming in each winter of the simulation. These facts suggest that this model may be useful for studying not only the warming process but also the conditions that favor its development.
Field-scale crop models are increasingly applied at spatio-temporal scales that range from regions to the globe and from decades up to 100 years. Sufficiently detailed data to capture the prevailing spatio-temporal heterogeneity in weather, soil, and management conditions as needed by crop models are rarely available. Effective sampling may overcome the problem of missing data but has rarely been investigated. In this study the effect of sampling weather data has been evaluated for simulating yields of winter wheat in a region in Germany over a 30-year period (1982-2011) using 12 process-based crop models. A stratified sampling was applied to compare the effect of different sizes of spatially sampled weather data (10, 30, 50, 100, 500, 1000 and full coverage of 34,078 sampling points) on simulated wheat yields. Stratified sampling was further compared with random sampling. Possible interactions between sample size and crop model were evaluated. The results showed differences in simulated yields among crop models but all models reproduced well the pattern of the stratification. Importantly, the regional mean of simulated yields based on full coverage could already be reproduced by a small sample of 10 points. This was also true for reproducing the temporal variability in simulated yields but more sampling points (about 100) were required to accurately reproduce spatial yield variability. The number of sampling points can be smaller when a stratified sampling is applied as compared to a random sampling. However, differences between crop models were observed including some interaction between the effect of sampling on simulated yields and the model used. We concluded that stratified sampling can considerably reduce the number of required simulations. But, differences between crop models must be considered as the choice for a specific model can have larger effects on simulated yields than the sampling strategy. Assessing the impact of sampling soil and crop management data for regional simulations of crop yields is still needed.
Lagrangian material line simulations are performed using U.K. Meteorological Office simulated winds and temperatures to examine mixing processes in the middle- and lower-stratospheric polar night jet during the 1992 Southern Hemisphere spring and Northern Hemisphere winter. The Lagrangian simulations are undertaken to provide insight into the effects of mixing within the polar night jet on observations of the polar vortex made by instruments onboard the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) during these periods. A moderate to strong kinematic barrier to large-scale isentropic exchange, similar to the barrier identified in General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations, is identified during both of these periods. Characteristic timescales for mixing by large-scale isentropic motions within the polar night jet range from 20 days in the Southern Hemisphere lower stratosphere to years in the Northern Hemisphere middle stratosphere. The long mixing timescales found in the Northern Hemisphere polar night jet do not persist. Instead, the Northern Hemisphere kinematic barriers are broken down as part of the large-scale stratospheric response to a strong tropospheric blocking event. A series of Lagrangian experiments are conducted to investigate the sensitivity of the kinematic barrier to diabatic effects and to small-scale inertial gravity wave motions. Differential diabatic descent is found to have a significant impact on mixing processes within the Southern Hemisphere middle-stratospheric jet core. The interaction between small-scale displacements by idealized, inertial gravity waves and the large-scale flow is found to have a significant impact on mixing within the polar night jet in both hemispheres. These sensitivity experiments suggest that scales of motion that are unresolved in global assimilated datasets may contribute to mass exchange across the kinematic barrier to large-scale isentropic motion.