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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3

Agentic traffic intelligence: Augmented human-in-the-loop scenario generation for microscopic traffic simulation

Traditional microscopic traffic simulation generation often relies on static datasets and manual design, limiting its ability to simulate complex conditions easily. This paper presents a novel framework, Agentic Traffic Intelligence, which combines human approval large language models (LLMs), the Real-Twin tool, and multi-agent systems to perform realistic microscopic traffic simulation scenario generation. The proposed framework incorporates human-in-the-loop (HIL) control, retrieval-augmented generation (RAG), and multi-agent control mechanisms. HIL mechanisms are used to guide multiple LLMs focused on attributes for microscopic simulation generation and to improve the interpretability and transparency of LLM execution for users. RAG enhances context extraction by dynamically integrating external knowledge sources for traffic scenario generation foundations. A multi-agent architecture with supervisory control coordinates the interaction of simulation components, including traffic simulators, control logic, and calibration tools. This enables the synthesis of simulation-ready scenarios that reflect dynamic demand profiles and behavior controls. Furthermore, the framework fuses multisource traffic data with unstructured context and supports iterative refinement through interactive user feedback. Validated through microscopic simulation using Simulation of Urban Mobility, the generated scenarios demonstrate high-fidelity network generation with inflow and turn movement and behavioral calibration, offering a robust and efficient tool for stress-testing and optimizing urban mobility systems.

Hierarchical multi-agent control↗

Latent heat thermal energy storage performance maps enabling fast & accurate building energy simulations

Thermal energy storage (TES) using phase change materials (PCMs) has gained attention as an effective approach to manage energy demand fluctuations and shift peak building loads. PCM embedded heat exchangers (PCM-HXs) offer high energy storage density and low temperature variation during phase change, being suitable for load-shifting applications. However, this component is typically evaluated using computationally expensive methods, which present significant challenges when the ultimate goal is to assess the performance of PCM-HX integrated thermal energy storage systems in the full building context. In this paper, we present a methodology to generate highly accurate and computationally efficient PCM-HX performance maps which can be easily integrated into building energy simulation tools to analyze the feasibility of space conditioning systems with latent heat PCM-based TES. The performance maps are generated using a computationally efficient PCM-HX simulation tool based on a Generalized Resistance-Capacitance Model (GRCM) which can simulate arbitrary PCM-HXs with high accuracy and significantly less computational effort compared to full CFD simulations. The methodology was verified for a case study considering a 5-ton (~17.5 kW) air-to-water heat pump-thermal energy storage system (HP-TES), which was co-simulated in Modelica for a DOE prototype small-office building in Vienna, Austria, using Spawn of EnergyPlus™. The TES performance maps provided accurate predictions of PCM-HX behavior when used as Modelica component, with deviations within 2-4% while also achieving at least 103 computational time reduction. Leveraging this faster prediction capability, four PCMs with different melting temperatures for cooling (12°C, 16°C) and heating (31°C, 36°C) were assessed to investigate their impact on system performance. This work highlights the importance of robust PCM-HX models for efficient and high-fidelity building-level simulations, presenting new opportunities for advanced control strategy development and parametric analysis of TES configurations in a computationally efficient manner

Modelica Building Simulations↗

3D multi-system Bayesian calibration with energy conservation to study rapidity-dependent dynamics of nuclear collisions

Considerable information about the early-stage dynamics of heavy ion collisions is encoded in the rapidity dependence of measurements. To leverage the large amount of experimental data, we perform a systematic analysis using three-dimensional hydrodynamic simulations of multiple collision systems — large and small, symmetric and asymmetric. Specifically, we perform fully 3D multi-stage hydrodynamic simulations initialized by a parameterized model for rapidity-dependent energy deposition, which we calibrate on the hadron multiplicity and anisotropic flow coefficients. We utilize Bayesian inference to constrain properties of the early- and late-time dynamics of the system, and highlight the impact of enforcing global energy conservation in our 3D model.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Afterglows from Binary Neutron Star Postmerger Systems Embedded in Active Galactic Nuclei Disks

Abstract The observability of afterglows from binary neutron star mergers occurring within active galactic nuclei (AGN) disks is investigated. We perform 3D GRMHD simulations of a postmerger system and follow the jet launched from the compact object. We use semianalytic techniques to study the propagation of the blast wave powered by the jet through an AGN disk-like external environment, extending to distances beyond the disk scale height. The synchrotron emission produced by the jet-driven forward shock is calculated to obtain the afterglow emission. The observability of this emission at different frequencies is assessed by comparing it to the quiescent AGN emission. In the scenarios where the afterglow could temporarily outshine the AGN, we find that detection will be more feasible at higher frequencies (≳10 14 Hz) and the electromagnetic counterpart could manifest as a fast variability in the AGN emission, on timescales less than a day.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Multi-physics Modeling of Radiative Heat Transfer and Fluid Flow for the Reactor Cavity Cooling System

High-temperature gas-cooled reactors (HTGRs) are notable for their high thermal efficiency and potential for combined heat and power applications. These reactors are particularly appealing due to their advanced passive safety features. HTGRs utilize passive safety systems that function without requiring active components like pumps or compressors during emergencies. These reactor designs depend on a Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS) to manage decay heat removal from the reactor pressure vessel (RPV) during accident conditions. The RCCS consists of vertical rectangular channels known as "risers" or riser ducts positioned around the RPV. These risers receive heat from the RPV through both convective and radiative heat transfer mechanisms. Understanding the interplay of multiple physical phenomena, such as fluid dynamics, heat transfer, and neutron interactions, is essential for the effective design and operation of nuclear reactors, particularly for systems like the RCCS. Multi-physics simulations provide a comprehensive approach to studying these interactions, offering detailed insights and enhancing accuracy. They are especially important in RCCS designs, where the interaction between radiative and convective heat transfer can significantly impact system performance. By leveraging multi-physics simulations, complex reactor behaviors can be modeled without compromising the fidelity of the underlying physical processes. This work aims to establish a robust methodology for coupling multiple physical processes in an air-cooled RCCS. By focusing on validating this multi-physics approach, the study involves designing test cases that simulate various conditions to verify the numerical models employed. The outcomes of this research will provide critical insights for accurately modeling and optimizing complex nuclear systems like the RCCS.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Probabilistic Resource Adequacy Suite (PRAS)

Powered By PRAS features the Probabilistic Resource Adequacy Suite (PRAS), an open-source, research-oriented collection of tools for analyzing the resource adequacy of bulk power systems. PRAS performs low-fidelity, high-speed simulations of multi-region power system operations, considering hundreds of thousands of years of unplanned resource outages to quantify the risk and potential nature of energy supply shortfalls in probabilistic terms.

demand↗

Similarity Metric for Data Optimization and Efficient Training of Reactive Machine Learning Force Fields for Hydrocarbon Radiolysis

Radiolysis is a common approach to sterilize polymers, chemically modify them for upcycling, and accelerate their decomposition for recycling purposes. Reactive molecular dynamics (MD) simulations provide a powerful tool to generate atomic-level trajectories of the reactive processes and quantify radiolytic chemical degradation pathways. For this, machine learning (ML) surrogate models for reactive force fields with quantum mechanical accuracy are now widely used, which require ML training data sets that can provide information on atomic environments for target chemical systems. However, radiolysis chemistry can be highly complex and diverse, which poses significant challenges for generating training data to parametrize ML models. In this regard, we developed a method for optimizing the training data set using a cosine similarity metric to help guide training set selection for radiolysis of polyethylene, a model hydrocarbon polymer, as well as to enhance the transferability of our reactive ML force field (MLFF) to a variety of molecular and polymeric systems. Our approach performs atom-by-atom comparisons between local atomic environments to pinpoint important data points associated with rare and localized events, such as radiolysis damage within structures. We apply this approach to train the Chebyshev Interaction Model for Efficient Simulation (ChIMES) MLFF model, which expresses the atomic interaction potentials in terms of linear combinations of many-body Chebyshev polynomials. We first show that our method can reduce our training set size by ∼70% while improving overall accuracy compared to more standard MD model fitting approaches. We then validate our optimum model against diverse hydrocarbon simulation data, including simple alkanes and systems with unsaturated carbon bonds, over a wide range of thermodynamic conditions. Finally, we use our ChIMES model to perform MD simulations of radiolytic damage with large-scale systems that help avoid system size effects. Overall, our approach yields an MD force field that retains most of the accuracy of the underlying quantum method while yielding many orders of improvement in computational efficiency. In conclusion, our efforts will have impact on future hydrocarbon polymer radiolysis studies, where the chemical details of the polymer–radiation interactions can have a strong effect on the resulting products observed in experiments.

Hydrocarbons↗

Enhancing Modeling and Simulation for Effective Protection Strategies

This report was created by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) to document the principles and methodology of performance data collection and integration with modeling and simulation tools to better facilitate the performance evaluation of physical protection systems (PPS). Results and conclusions from the use of modeling and simulation tools are only as good as the data employed by the tools when conducting analysis. Acquiring the performance testing data necessary to ensure effective evaluation can be a complex and sometimes daunting process. It is the desire of the organization to provide guidance that eases the burdens associated with pursuit of these objectives. This document draws heavily upon longstanding principles of systems engineering that have been developed and employed by SNL in the discipline of security since the 1970s. The scope of this document is constrained to the testing of system components and integration of data that is applicable within the context of PPS performance analysis using two tools that have been developed by SNL, PathTrace© and Scribe3D©. For guidance related to testing and evaluation more broadly, the manuals and reports referenced by this document can be consulted.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A dynamic 2D Borehole Thermal Energy Storage (BTES) model for enhanced computational efficiency

Progressing toward a future increasingly reliant on renewable energy sources, the development of effective, durable energy storage solutions becomes essential to balance supply and demand fluctuations. Borehole Thermal Energy Storage (BTES) is a long-duration thermal energy storage technology that captures excess heat generated from renewable energy sources and stores it underground for later use, enabling the efficient utilization of sustainable energy. This approach is particularly valuable in district energy networks when integrated with Ground Source Heat Pumps (GSHP) to provide stable heating and cooling. However, traditional three-dimensional (3D) numerical models of BTES systems demand extensive computational resources, limiting their practicality for real-time and large-scale applications. This study introduces a novel two-dimensional (2D) modeling approach that reduces computational costs while maintaining high accuracy. By employing a radial ring-based discretization method, the model simulates heat injection, retention, and retrieval dynamics over seasonal cycles. A new thermal-mass weighted-average temperature parameter is introduced to evaluate the performance of BTES systems. Model validation against FEFLOW simulations demonstrates a 17-fold improvement in computational speed compared to traditional Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) models while achieving a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 2 % during charging and 4 % during discharging. Additionally, a trade-off analysis between computational efficiency and accuracy is conducted, ensuring the model's applicability for real-world scenarios. The findings of this research contribute to the development of computationally efficient BTES models, facilitating better optimization, control, and integration into renewable energy systems. This work provides a foundation for further studies in techno-economic analysis, multi-year performance evaluation, and real-time operational strategies for BTES applications, supporting a more sustainable energy future.

2D modeling↗

Performance Analysis of an Optimization Algorithm for Metamaterial Design on the Integrated High-Performance Computing and Quantum Systems

Optimizing metamaterials with complex geometries is a big challenge. Although an active learning algorithm, combining machine learning (ML), quantum computing, and optical simulation, has emerged as an efficient optimization tool, it still faces difficulties in optimizing complex structures that have potentially high performance. In this work, we comprehensively analyze the performance of an optimization algorithm for metamaterial design on the integrated HPC and quantum systems. We demonstrate significant time advantages through message-passing interface (MPI) parallelization on the high-performance computing (HPC) system showing approximately 54% faster ML tasks and 67 times faster optical simulation against serial workloads. Furthermore, we analyze the performance of a quantum algorithm designed for optimization, which runs with various quantum simulators on a local computer or HPC-quantum system. Results showcase ~24 times speedup when executing the optimization algorithm on the HPC-quantum hybrid system. This study paves a way to optimize complex metamaterials using the integrated HPC-quantum system.

Kim, Seongmin↗

Results of a Geant4 benchmarking study for bio‐medical applications, performed with the G4‐Med system

Geant4, a Monte Carlo Simulation Toolkit extensively used in bio-medical physics, is in continuous evolution to include newest research findings to improve its accuracy and to respond to the evolving needs of a very diverse user community. In 2014, the G4-Med benchmarking system was born from the effort of the Geant4 Medical Simulation Benchmarking Group, to benchmark and monitor the evolution of Geant4 for medical physics applications. The G4-Med system was first described in our Medical Physics Special Report published in 2021. Results of the tests were reported for Geant4 10.5. Purpose In this work, we describe the evolution of the G4-Med benchmarking system. Methods The G4-Med benchmarking suite currently includes 23 tests, which benchmark Geant4 from the calculation of basic physical quantities to the simulation of more clinically relevant set-ups. New tests concern the benchmarking of Geant4-DNA physics and chemistry components for regression testing purposes, dosimetry for brachytherapy with a 125 I source, dosimetry for external x-ray and electron FLASH radiotherapy, experimental microdosimetry for proton therapy, and in vivo PET for carbon and oxygen beams. Regression testing has been performed between Geant4 10.5 and 11.1. Finally, a simple Geant4 simulation has been developed and used to compare Geant4 EM physics constructors and physics lists in terms of execution times. Results In summary, our EM tests show that the parameters of the multiple scattering in the Geant4 EM constructor G4EmStandardPhysics_option3 in Geant4 11.1, while improving the modeling of the electron backscattering in high atomic number targets, are not adequate for dosimetry for clinical x-ray and electron beams. Therefore, these parameters have been reverted back to those of Geant4 10.5 in Geant4 11.2.1. The x-ray radiotherapy test shows significant differences in the modeling of the bremsstrahlung process, especially between G4EmPenelopePhysics and the other constructors under study (G4EmLivermorePhysics, G4EmStandardPhysics_option3, and G4EmStandardPhysics_option4). These differences will be studied in an in-depth investigation within our Group. Improvement in Geant4 11.1 has been observed for the modeling of the proton and carbon ion Bragg peak with energies of clinical interest, thanks to the adoption of ICRU90 to calculate the low energy proton stopping powers in water and of the Linhard–Sorensen ion model, available in Geant4 since version 11.0. Nuclear fragmentation tests of interest for carbon ion therapy show differences between Geant4 10.5 and 11.1 in terms of fragment yields. In particular, a higher production of boron fragments is observed with Geant4 11.1, leading to a better agreement with reference data for this fragment. Conclusions Based on the overall results of our tests, we recommend to use G4EmStandardPhysics_option4 as EM constructor and QGSP_BIC_HP with G4EmStandardPhysics_option4, for hadrontherapy applications. The Geant4-DNA physics lists report differences in modeling electron interactions in water, however, the tests have a pure regression testing purpose so no recommendation can be formulated.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Toward integrating high-fidelity CFD approaches in the thermal-hydraulic analysis of turbulent dry cask systems

Nuclear power plants have been supplying resilient and reliable electricity for decades, contributing to energy independence of the U.S.. However, nuclear waste management remains one of the most significant challenges in the industry. The safety of dry cask storage systems relies heavily on their thermal-hydraulic performance. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations are often used to demonstrate this performance and ensure that the system design meets safety standards. This study presents reduced numerical models for various types of dry cask systems. These numerical models can produce efficient and fast results based on the employed modeling strategies. Additionally, the study uses a novel approach to high-fidelity simulations to evaluate modeling assumptions in dry cask modeling. Large Eddy Simulations (LES) are used for this purpose, particularly in regions where fluid velocity is relatively high and the turbulence characteristics become important. Furthermore, the results of these high-fidelity simulations will enhance the interpretation of outcomes produced from a lower-fidelity CFD model.

CFD↗

Openpronghorn

OpenPronghorn is a simulation tool specifically tailored for modeling thermal-hydraulic phenomena in advanced nuclear reactors. It is built on the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE), an open-source platform that facilitates the development of high-performance scientific computing applications. OpenPronghorn solves the Navier-Stokes equations, which describe the conservation of mass, momentum, and energy in fluid flows, using the finite volume numerical method. The code supports a wide range of fluid flow conditions that are applicable to nuclear reactors, including incompressible and weakly compressible flows, as well as single-phase and multiphase flows. It is capable of modeling diverse flow regimes, including laminar and turbulent flows, using various turbulence models such as the standard k-epsilon models, the v2f model, and the mixing length model. For multiphase flows, OpenPronghorn employs a mixture a Eulerian modeling approach with mixture, drift-flux, and full Eulerian models, and includes open-sourced interfacial transfer correlations for drag, exchange, and heat transfer coming from the scientific literature. OpenPronghorn's modular design allows it to handle multiscale simulations, ranging from detailed Reynolds-Averaged Navier Stokes (RANS) simulations to coarse-mesh and lumped parameter models. This flexibility enables users to perform high-fidelity simulations of specific reactor components as well as system-level analyses of entire reactor circuits. The code can be coupled with other MOOSE-based tools using the MultiApp system, allowing for the transfer of coupling quantities such as mass flow rates, heat fluxes, and boundary conditions between different simulation scales. One of the main features of OpenPronghorn is the it includes built-in validation cases from the open-source scientific literature and supports the implementation of user-defined models and correlations through MOOSE's FunctorMaterial system. OpenPronghorn is designed to be computationally efficient, leveraging the SIMPLE projection method for large-scale problems, and can be run on high-performance computing systems to handle the extensive computational demands of detailed reactor simulations. Overall, OpenPronghorn is a versatile and robust tool that provides critical insights into the thermal-hydraulic behavior of advanced nuclear reactors, supporting the design, safety, and optimization of next-generation nuclear energy systems.

Retamales, Mauricio Eduardo Tano [Idaho National L↗

Mu2e resonant extraction regulation system simulation in delivery ring

Mu2e is an upcoming experiment at Fermilab that relies on the slowly extracted 8 GeV proton beam from the Delivery Ring. The experiment imposes strong requirements on the spill uniformity. To address these requirements, the fast spill regulations system is being developed and commissioned. To inform this development and optimize the system performance we are carrying out the detailed simulations of the regulation process. The simulation includes the effect of six harmonic sextupoles that excite the third-integer resonance and three fast ramping quadrupoles that drive the horizontal tune to 29/3. The components of spill regulation system are designed to mitigate long-term drifts in the beam, ensuring stable operation over extended timescales, as well as addresses rapid variations within single spill. In this study, we review the regulation system design, simulation of the slow regulation, and the fast regulation PID regulation to curtail random variations in the extraction rate that could occur within a single spill.

Narayanan, Aakaash [Fermilab]↗

Automation for Grid Interconnected Laboratory Emulation

As computational capabilities improve, digital twins are becoming vital for evaluating equipment realistically in laboratories. This paper outlines a digital twin architecture for the power grid, employing electromagnetic transient (EMT) simulation alongside real-time simulation of power hardware and hierarchical control systems. EMT simulation occurs on a high-performance computing server for scalability. Additionally, the paper describes a workflow and real-time data streaming software facilitating connectivity among EMT simulation, hierarchical control systems, and power hardware. This software enables automated equipment connectivity in the laboratory for realistic evaluations, aiding in identifying necessary upgrades for both equipment control systems and the power grid.

Marthi, Phani Ratna Vanamali [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000↗

Pilot Development Progress to Demonstrate Electric Thermal Energy Storage (ETES) Using Low-Cost Particles

The rapid growth of future energy demand increases the need to economically store electrical energy over durations up to several days in long-duration energy storage (LDES) applications. LDES can reduce the grid stress for improving the resilience of the grid. The integration of renewable power and storage has several significant and positive impacts including expanding the renewable energy portion of electricity generation, meeting peak-load demand, and coordinating supply and demand. Several energy storage approaches including mechanical, chemical and electrochemical methods are currently deployed or under development. However, LDES requirements pose unique challenges for scalability, energy capacity, and cost. Thermal energy storage (TES) has the ability to store a large capacity of energy with improved site flexibility compared to incumbent LDES technologies (i.e., pumped hydro) and has attracted significant interest. Our development in TES technology using solid particles as the storage medium has shown feasibility and potential in serving LDES purposes. Particle TES has various advantages over commercialized molten nitrate salt TES and has emerged as a promising storage technology originating from Generation 3 concentrating solar power (CSP) development. Stable, inexpensive silica sand produced in the Midwestern U.S. was identified as a suitable storage medium and has been validated through lab heating and cycling tests. We have successfully developed particle TES for bidirectional electric energy storage to broaden the applications for TES beyond CSP technologies and into standalone electric-thermal energy storage (ETES) systems. Key component designs and performance were verified with prototype testing and model simulations. The ETES system uses high-temperature, low-cost particle thermal energy storage coupled with a unique pressurized fluidized bed heat exchanger that supports a high-efficiency, air-Brayton combined power cycle. At times of low energy demand or high renewable production, an electric particle heater heats large quantities of solid particles to high temperatures in excess of 1100 degrees C. The particles are stored in internally insulated silos. At times of high electricity demand, the hot particles are gravity-fed through the heat exchanger where stored thermal energy is transferred to the power cycle working fluid to drive the gas turbine power generation system, thereby converting the thermal energy back into electricity for the grid. The cold particles leaving the heat exchanger are returned to the storage silos by a well-insulated particle conveyor. This ETES technology using particle TES can be sited anywhere and is predicted to be economic and efficient. Moreover, this ETES technology could be co-located with a retired coal or gas plant to leverage existing power generation and grid infrastructure. Our work has focused on the development of each of the key components (e.g., the electric particle heater, particle storage silos, and the particle-to-gas pressurized fluidized bed heat exchanger) through conceptual designs, prototype testing, and computational modeling. These developments demonstrate technological feasibility and are an important step towards the next phase of development of this promising LDES technology. This presentation will show the progress in developing a pilot demonstration of the ETES system on a commercially relevant scale.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

The U.S. Agrivoltaic Shading Tool: A National-Scale Interface for Modeling Light and Shade Patterns in Ten Common Agrivoltaic Configurations

Agrivoltaic systems are dual-use configurations that co-locate agriculture and photovoltaic (PV) infrastructure and require careful design to balance crop performance and energy generation. A critical element of agrivoltaic design is the spatial and temporal distribution of irradiance and shade within and around PV arrays. To support research, planning, and stakeholder decision-making, we introduce the U.S. Agrivoltaic Shading Tool, a novel web-based application that delivers high-resolution irradiance and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) modeling for ten standardized PV configurations across the conterminous United States. The tool leverages the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) System Advisor Model (SAM) to perform detailed irradiance simulations, using meteorological data from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB). Outputs include seasonal, monthly, weekly, and diurnal patterns of available sunlight, amount of shade, irradiance, and PAR at ground level within agrivoltaic system footprints. For a user's selected location, these results are visualized through interactive visualizations, heatmaps, and time-series plots, designed to be accessible to both technical and non-technical users. In addition to facilitating rapid spatial exploration of agrivoltaic light environments, the tool will offer seamless integration with the InSPIRE Agrivoltaics Design and Analysis Model (ADAM). This optional workflow will allow users to port selected site and configuration parameters into a more advanced modeling environment for further customization of structural layouts, crop-system compatibility, power generation, and technoeconomic performance. Finally, to promote open science, the entire dataset will be hosted and available for open access through the OpenEI platform. By standardizing and disseminating high-quality irradiance data and design tools, the U.S. Agrivoltaic Shading Tool supports a wide range of users, including researchers, landowners, energy developers, and policymakers, in evaluating the agronomic and energetic feasibility of agrivoltaic systems across the United States.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Thermal Reservoir Networks for Modularly Expandable Thermal Microgrids

The Department of Defense (DoD) faces the substantial challenge of cost-effectively retrofitting one to two installations per month, each comprising approximately 1,000 buildings, to improve resilience, reduce energy consumption, and enhance energy supply security. Achieving these objectives requires optimal system selection and effective risk mitigation during system integration. To address this need, we introduce Platform-Based Design (PBD), a structured, hierarchical methodology adapted from other industrial sectors to the domain of energy system retrofits. We demonstrate the effectiveness of PBD through a techno-economic feasibility study comparing geothermal-coupled thermal energy networks (TENs) with conventional energy systems for heating, cooling, and powering 17 buildings at Joint Base Andrews (JBA) in Maryland. Our analysis illustrates that the PBD approach enables rigorous, data-driven, sequential decision making, resulting in a family of Pareto-optimal systems, among which the TEN emerged as the most promising solution. The selected TEN design integrates geothermal borefields, heat recovery heat pumps, photovoltaic (PV) arrays, and battery storage. Compared to the baseline system – gas heating combined with air-source chillers – the proposed TEN reduces annual imported energy by 74% and peak electricity demand by 45%, achieves a levelized cost of energy of $\$0.210$/kWh, and substantially enhances resilience. Life-cycle costs increase by approximately 6%, and initial investment costs are about 2.5 times higher than the baseline. However, if central plant infrastructure, district loops, and utility-scale PV and battery systems are privately funded and operated, the initial investment would fall below the baseline system cost. Critical to achieving these significant performance improvements were detailed nonlinear dynamic simulations coupling geothermal heat transfer, energy system operation, and realistic feedback control logic. These simulations identified essential design modifications and control strategy refinements that substantially reduced energy use, peak demand, and compressor shortcycling, thereby improving durability and reliability—issues that would have been significantly more expensive to resolve during operation. Additionally, the verification step highlighted sensitivities to key design parameters that could reduce initial investment by approximately $\$2$ million and reduce annual life-cycle costs more than $\$300,000$. We recommend adopting the PBD methodology for future feasibility studies and TEN pilot projects to gain valuable operational experience. Furthermore, we recommend that DoD invest in transferring and scaling the PBD methodology to other installations. This entails developing standardized computational frameworks and component libraries as well as training industry in conducting PBD. Such investments would enable rapid, robust, reliable, and cost-effective retrofits, supporting DoD’s ambitious energy system modernization goals.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗