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DOE OSTI2024

Fine-scale landscape characteristics, vegetation composition, and snowmelt timing control phenological heterogeneity across low-Arctic tundra landscapes in Western Alaska

The Arctic is warming at over twice the rate of the rest of the Earth, resulting in significant changes in vegetation seasonality that regulates annual carbon, water, and energy fluxes. However, a crucial knowledge gap exists regarding the intricate interplay among climate, permafrost, and vegetation that generates high phenology variability across extensive tundra landscapes. This oversight has led to significant discrepancies in phenological patterns observed across warming experiments, long-term ecological observations, and satellite and modeling studies, undermining our ability to understand and forecast plant responses to climate change in the Arctic. To address this problem, we assessed plant phenology across three low-Arctic tundra landscapes on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska, using a combination of in-situ phenocam observations and high-resolution PlanetScope CubeSat data. We examined the patterns and drivers of phenological diversity across the landscape by (1) quantifying phenological diversity among dominant plant function types (PFTs) and (2) modeling the interrelations between plant phenology and fine-scale landscape features, such as topography, snowmelt, and vegetation. Our findings reveal that both spring and fall phenology varied significantly across Arctic PFTs, accounting for about 25%–44% and 34%–59% of the landscape-scale variation in the start of spring [SOS] and start of fall [SOF], respectively. Deciduous tall shrubs (e.g. alder and willow) had a later SOS (~7 d behind the mean of other PFTs), but completed leaf expansion (within 2 weeks) considerably faster compared to other PFTs. We modeled the landscape-scale variation in SOS and SOF using Random Forest, which showed that plant phenology can be accurately captured by a suite of variables related to vegetation composition, topographic characteristics, and snowmelt timing (variance explained: 53%–68% for SOS and 59%–82% for SOF). Notably, snowmelt timing was a crucial determinant of SOS, a factor often neglected in most spring phenology models. Our study highlights the impact of fine-scale vegetation composition, snow seasonality, and landscape features on tundra phenological heterogeneity. Improved understanding of such considerable intra-site phenological variability and associated proximate controls across extensive Arctic landscapes offers critical insights for representation of tundra phenology in process models and associated impact assessments with climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Watershed response of the Feather River Basin, California, United States of America to future climate changes

Increasing mean annual temperatures under climate change are expected to reduce seasonal snowpack, increase evapotranspiration (ET), and alter summer baseflow in headwater watersheds worldwide. Strong regional variability in hydrologic responses highlights the need for catchment-scale, physically based models to assess future flood risk and water availability. This study examines climate-driven changes in the hydrologic response of the Upper Feather River watershed in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, California. Four priority climate models and two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are used to evaluate future hydrologic responses of the watershed. Hydrologic processes are simulated using an objectively calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool Plus model for a historical baseline (1986–2005) and a future period 2070–2099), driven by observed and projected precipitation and temperature. Results indicate a declining contribution of snowfall to annual precipitation, with peak snowfall and water yield shifting 1–3 months earlier. Long-term annual maximum flows are projected to increase considerably, whereas low-flow responses are mixed, with both increases and decreases projected by the end of the century. These findings highlight the need for adaptive watershed management to enhance flood protection, water storage, and drought resilience. Future water resource planning should also account for one-to-three-month shifts in peak water yield and surface runoff due to changes in snowmelt timing and a lower snowfall-to-rainfall ratio under climate change. The modeling framework and insights are transferable to other snow-dominated headwater watersheds experiencing climate-driven change.

Tigabu, T [UC Davis]↗

DOE OSTI2026

Data and script associated with “Shifts in Rain-Snow Partitioning Drive Faster Water Transit Times in the US Pacific Northwest”

This data package contains the data and code to use and run the Water Tracer enabled version of the Weather Research and Forecasting Hydrologic model (WT-WRF-Hydro) with the Sequential Precipitation Input Tagging (SPIT) framework. It is associated with the publication “Shifts in Rain-Snow Partitioning Drive Faster Water Transit Times in the US Pacific Northwest” published in Scientific Reports (Butler et al., 2026; https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-46539-1). We use the Continental U.S. (CONUSII; Rasmussen et al., 2021) dataset to force the model with an historical climate (2006–2013) and a future climate (2086–2093) with a representative carbon pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. We use the model to calculate water transit times in five headwater catchments within the U.S. Pacific Northwest. We also show key hydrologic and environmental variables that affect water transit times and changes in the future. Finally, we use observed data to validate the model such as stream water isotopes, snowpack characteristics, and stream discharge. For details on how to navigate data packages generated by this project, see https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/PNNLRiverCorridorSFA/About. In addition to a readme, this data package also includes a file-level metadata (FLMD) file that describes each file and a data dictionary (DD) that describes all column/row headers and variable definitions. The data package consists of 11 folders: (1) "Figures" contains the exported figures used in the manuscript; (2) "Model_Isotope_Date" contains the WT-WRF-Hydro isotope date used in model validation; (3) “Model_Outputs_Future” contains the WT-WRF-Hydro future climate outputs; (4) “Model_Outputs_Historical” contains the WT-WRF-Hydro historical climate outputs; (5) “Model_Outputs_Weights_Areas” contains the WT-WRF-Hydro weights per catchment used to calculate water transit times and isotopes in stream water; (6) “MODIS_data_scripts” contains data used to validate snow conditions in the study area; (7) “Observed_Flow_Data” contains the observed streamflow data used in model validation; (8) “Observed_Isotope_Data” contains the observed stream water isotope data used in model validation; (9) “Scripts” contains the Python scripts used to general results and the figures; (10) “Statistic_Outputs” contains the water transit time statistical outputs reported in this manuscript; (11) “Validation_SNOTEL” contains the SNOTEL data used in model validation. The files in this data package have the following file extensions: .tif, .txt, .csv, .pdf, .py, .jpg, and .png.

American River↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data from: 'Abiotic influences on continuous conifer forest structure across a subalpine watershed'

This package archives the core data used for analysis and inference in 'Abiotic influences on continuous conifer forest structure across a subalpine watershed' (Worsham et al., 2025). All data were collected in the East River, Washington Gulch, Slate River, and Coal Creek watersheds of Colorado. In the paper, we quantified the relative influence of climate, topographic, edaphic, and geologic factors on conifer stand structure and composition, and their functional relationships, at the watershed scale. We used waveform LiDAR data to derive spatially continuous stand structure metrics. We fused these with a species-level classification map to estimate tree species abundance. We applied generalized additive and generalized boosted models to evaluate the covariability of structural and compositional metrics with abiotic variables. The package contains the essential products required for reproducing our analysis and the tables and figures reported in the publication. The products comprise four classes: (1) geospatial data, (2) tabular data used for inferential analysis, (3) tabular data describing analytical results and performance statistics, and (4) a data user guide. (1) includes discretized waveform LiDAR data, locations and attributes of individual tree crowns, sampling locations and domain boundaries, a canopy height model, and raster files of estimated forest structural and compositional metrics at 100 m grid scale. (2) includes all response and explanatory variable values applied in inferential models. Response variables include conifer forest stand density, basal area, 95th percentile height, quadratic mean diameter, and others. Explanatory variables include climatic water deficit, actual evapotranspiration, elevation, heat load, soil available water content, and others. (3) includes results of training and testing several individual tree detection (ITD) algorithms, as well as inferential modeling results. (4) is a PDF user guide for this data package, including detailed descriptions and data dictionaries for all files. The data package root contains 17 assets: 8 compressed tape archive (.tar.gz) files, 5 comma-separated values (.csv) files, 3 Geographic Tagged Image File Format (GeoTIFF) (.tif) files, and 1 Portable Document Format (.pdf) file. The compressed .tar.gz archives contain ESRI shapefiles (.shp) .tif, compressed LASer (.laz), and .csv files. The archives must first be decompressed using the widely distributed command-line software utility TAR. All other files, including constituent files within the .tar.gz archives, can be opened in the open-source R statistical computing environment. Alternatively, .csv files may also be read in any simple text editor software or Microsoft Excel. Geospatial files including .shp and .tif files can also be opened in GIS software, such as QGIS (open-source) or ESRI ArcGIS (proprietary). The .pdf Data User Guide can be read with Adobe Acrobat Reader or other compatible readers.

2018 NEON and 2025 CHESS Campaigns↗

DOE OSTI2024

Understanding the Cascade: Removing GCM Biases Improves Dynamically Downscaled Climate Projections

Polarization surrounding bias correction (BC) in creating climate projections arises from its lack of physicality. Here, we perform and analyze 18 dynamical downscaling simulations (with and without BC) to better understand the physical impacts of BC, applied before downscaling, on regional climate output across the western United States. Without BC, downscaled precipitation is systematically and unrealistically wet biased compared to a hierarchy of observationally based datasets over the 1980–2014 period due to cascading mean–state Global Climate Model (GCM) biases: (a) overly strong lower–tropospheric lapse rates (5 K/km), (b) overly cold (2 K) tropospheric temperatures, and (c) anomalous mid–tropospheric cyclonic vorticity advection. With BC, downscaled precipitation (snow) biases are virtually eliminated (halved). Identified GCM biases are common to the broader Coupled Model Intercomparison Project ensemble. Physical effects of BC on the quality of the regionalized projections, pending an evaluation of BC's distortion of the downscaled climate response, may motivate its broader application by dynamical downscalers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Are Atmospheric Models Too Cold in the Mountains? The State of Science and Insights from the SAIL Field Campaign

Mountains play an outsized role in water resource availability, and the amount and timing of water they provide depend strongly on temperature. To that end, we ask the question: How well are atmospheric models capturing mountain temperatures? We synthesize results showing that high-resolution, regionally relevant climate models produce 2-m air temperature (T2m) measurements colder than what is observed (a “cold bias”), particularly in snow-covered midlatitude mountain ranges during winter. We find common cold biases in 44 studies across global mountain ranges, including single-model and multimodel ensembles. We explore the factors driving these biases and examine the physical mechanisms, data limitations, and observational uncertainties behind T2m. Our analysis suggests that the biases are genuine and not due to observation sparsity or resolution mismatches. Cold biases occur primarily on mountain peaks and ridges, whereas valleys are often warm biased. Our literature review suggests that increasing model resolution does not clearly mitigate the bias. By analyzing data from the Surface Atmosphere Integrated Field Laboratory (SAIL) field campaign in the Colorado Rocky Mountains, we test various hypotheses related to cold biases and find that local wind circulations, longwave (LW) radiation, and surface-layer parameterizations contribute to the T2m biases in this particular location. We conclude by emphasizing the value of coordinated model evaluation and development efforts in heavily instrumented mountain locations for addressing the root cause(s) of T2m biases and improving predictive understanding of mountain climates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Are Atmospheric Models Too Cold in the Mountains? The State of Science and Insights from the SAIL Field Campaign

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Determination of Ground Subsidence Around Snow Fences in the Arctic Region

In this study, we analyzed the effects of snow cover changes caused by snow fences (SFs) installed in 2017 in the Alaskan tundra to examine ground subsidence. Digital surface model data obtained through LiDAR-based remote sensing in 2019 and 2022, combined with a field survey in 2021, revealed approximately 0.2 m of ground subsidence around the SF. To investigate the relationship between SF-induced snow cover changes and ground subsidence, geophysical methods, electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) and ground-penetrating radar (GPR), were applied in 2023 to analyze subsurface characteristics. The increased snow cover due to the SF-enhanced insulation, delaying the penetration of winter cold into the subsurface. This delay caused subsurface temperatures to decrease more slowly, melting the upper permafrost and increasing the thickness of the active layer. ERT and GPR surveys well delineated the boundary between the active layer and permafrost, confirming that the increased snow cover thickened the active layer. This thickening led to the melting of pore ice, causing water runoff and ground compaction, which resulted in subsidence. The runoff also formed channels flowing eastward over the SF. This study highlights how changes in snow cover can influence active layer properties, leading to localized environmental changes and ground subsidence.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Fine-scale vegetation composition and structure shape spatiotemporal variation in surface albedo across a low Arctic tundra landscape

The unprecedented rate of warming in the Arctic is driving changes in the structure and composition of tundra vegetation. Increases in deciduous tall shrub cover, height, and density are of particular concern, as these changes alter local surface albedo in ways that could amplify effects on the regional surface energy budget (SEB). Despite this importance, significant uncertainties remain in understanding the interplay between fine-scale vegetation patterns and emergent albedo dynamics across space and time. Here, we address these uncertainties by (1) quantifying spatiotemporal variation in surface shortwave albedo and (2) determining the relative influence of fine-scale vegetation composition, structure, and environmental conditions on albedo across a representative low-Arctic tundra landscape on Alaska’s Seward Peninsula. To do this, we synthesized multi-scale, multi-platform remote sensing observations, including a novel Landsat-derived albedo time series, a fine-scale map of Arctic plant functional type (PFT) fractional cover, and airborne LiDAR estimates of canopy height and topography. We show that there are substantial reductions in winter albedo for pixels dominated by tall, woody PFTs (28.13%) relative to pixels dominated by non-woody vegetation, but almost no change in summer albedo (3% increase). Further, we identified a unimodal trend in the relationship between canopy height and the timing of the springtime transition from high (snowy) to low (leafy) albedo (peak at 5.5 m), possibly because of competing ‘snow-fence’ and ‘protrusion’ snow-shrub interactions. To explore the primary drivers of albedo, we constructed a random forest model and found that canopy height and the fractional cover of woody PFTs were as- or more important predictors of winter albedo than topographic features. These findings provide strong evidence for the impacts of local vegetation characteristics on regional surface albedo, highlighting the need for better quantification of snow-shrub interactions to accurately predict the Arctic’s SEB under future environmental change.

Arctic↗

DOE OSTI2026

Estimating Fine-Resolution Shortwave Broadband Albedo of Croplands from Harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 Data

Altered surface albedo due to land-cover conversions and management is a significant driver of global climate change. Albedo can be directly measured at ground stations, and remote sensing data can be used to scale-up albedo values to regional and global levels. Some previous studies have retrieved fine-resolution (10–30 m) instantaneous albedo and coarse-resolution (500–1000 m) daily mean albedo from remote sensing data, but they all required the input of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) albedo information at 500-m resolution, and none have assembled both instantaneous and daily albedo based exclusively on fine-resolution satellite data. Here, to address this issue, we compiled 387 instantaneous and 346 daily albedo records using field net radiometer measurements from the bioenergy croplands at the W. K. Kellogg Biological Station in southwest Michigan. We then connected these albedo records with a suite of variables derived from harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 data through two machine learning algorithms (random forest regression and extreme gradient boosting) to retrieve clear-sky instantaneous and daily shortwave broadband albedo. The performance statistics indicate reasonable accuracy of model results [root-mean-square error (RMSE)] around or below 0.03 except for snow-covered surfaces), suggesting that the retrieval of both instantaneous and daily albedo based exclusively on fine-resolution satellite data is promising. To facilitate the use of fine-resolution albedo products at the global level, future efforts need to include more albedo records of diverse surface cover types, as well as to accurately model daily albedo for cloudy days to address the “clear-sky bias.”

Harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2↗

DOE OSTI2025

Thermodynamic Cloud Phase Classifications Using Machine Learning at NSA and ANX

Vertically resolved thermodynamic cloud phase classifications are essential for studies of atmospheric cloud and precipitation processes. The Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) THERMOCLDPHASE Value-Added Product (VAP) uses a multi-sensor approach to classify thermodynamic cloud phase by combining lidar backscatter and depolarization, radar reflectivity, Doppler velocity, spectral width, microwave radiometer-derived liquid water path, and radiosonde temperature measurements. The measured voxels are classified as ice, snow, mixed-phase, liquid (cloud water), drizzle, rain, and liq_driz (liquid+drizzle). We use this product as the ground truth to train three machine learning (ML) models to predict the thermodynamic cloud phase from multi-sensor remote sensing measurements taken at the ARM North Slope of Alaska (NSA) observatory: a random forest (RF), a multilayer perceptron (MLP), and a convolutional neural network (CNN) with a U-Net architecture. Evaluations against the outputs of the THERMOCLDPHASE VAP with one year of data show that the CNN outperforms the other two models, achieving the highest test accuracy, F1-score, and mean Intersection over Union (IOU). Analysis of ML confidence scores shows ice, rain, and snow have higher confidence scores, followed by liquid, while mixed, drizzle, and liq_driz have lower scores. Feature importance analysis reveals that the mean Doppler velocity and vertically resolved temperature are the most influential datastreams for ML thermodynamic cloud phase predictions. The ML models’ generalization capacity is further evaluated by applying them at another Arctic ARM site in Norway using data taken during the ARM Cold-Air Outbreaks in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment (COMBLE) field campaign. Finally, we evaluate the ML models’ response to simulated instrument outages and signal degradation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Changes in high-latitude surface energy balance driven by snowpack and vegetation dynamics under warmer climate

With rapid climate warming, expected changes in snowpack and vegetation will alter the seasonal surface albedo of high-latitude ecosystems. The extent to which these albedo changes may affect surface energy balances and thus soil temperatures is uncertain, but represents a potentially important component of ecosystem feedbacks to climate change. Here, we apply a well-tested process-rich ecosystem model, ecosys , to examine changes in seasonal surface albedo and soil temperature driven by climate-induced snowpack and vegetation changes across Alaska under a warmer twenty-first century climate. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate change scenario, the modeled changes in surface albedo exhibited large seasonal and spatial variations. We found spring albedo decreases driven by increases in snow-free periods (>20 d) and an extended growing season length that resulted in greater gains in leaf area index (LAI) in most parts of Alaska. In contrast, we modeled increases in summer and winter albedo (despite modeled increases in LAI) across much of the boreal forest due to an increased proportion of aspen, which has a higher leaf albedo than the currently dominant black spruce. Modeled latent heat fluxes generally increase across the twenty-first century, particularly during the spring and summer. Overall, climate warming and changes in surface energy fluxes resulted in a 3.5 ± 0.50 °C increase in spatial- and annual-averaged top 10 cm surface soil temperatures across Alaskan ecosystems by the year 2100, with larger increases in tundra than boreal forest regions. We conclude that under warmer climates, seasonal variations in albedo and surface energy fluxes are particularly pronounced during the spring and summer, driven by changes in snowpack and vegetation dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Investigating Mountain Watershed Headwater‐To‐Groundwater Connections, Water Sources, and Storage Selection Behavior With Dynamic‐Flux Particle Tracking

Abstract Climate change will impact mountain watershed streamflow both directly—with changing precipitation amounts and variability—and indirectly—through temperature shifts altering snowpack, melt, and evapotranspiration. To understand how these complex processes will affect ecosystem functioning and water resources, we need tools to distinguish connections between water sources (rain/snowmelt), groundwater storage, and exit fluxes (streamflow/evapotranspiration), and to determine how these connections change seasonally and as climate shifts. Here, we develop novel watershed‐scale approaches to understand water source, storage, and exit flux connections using a dynamic‐flux particle tracking model (EcoSLIM) applied in California's Cosumnes Watershed, which connects the Sierra Nevada and Central Valley. This work develops new visualizations and applications to provide mechanistic understanding that underpins the interpretation of isotopic field data at watershed scales to distinguish sources, flow paths, residence times, and storage selection. In our simulations, streamflow comes primarily from snow‐derived water while evapotranspiration generally comes from rain. Most streamflow starts above 1,000 m while evapotranspiration is sourced relatively evenly across the watershed and is generally younger than streamflow. Modeled streamflow consists primarily of water sourced from precipitation in the previous 5 years but before the current water year, while ET consists primarily of water from precipitation in the current water year. ET, and to a lesser extent streamflow, are both younger than water in groundwater storage. However, snowmelt‐derived streamflow preferentially discharges older water from snow‐derived storage. Dynamic‐flux particle tracking and new approaches presented here enable novel model‐tracer comparisons in large‐scale watersheds to better understand watershed behavior in a changing climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Warming and snow loss increase reliance on old groundwater in a Colorado River headwater

Atmospheric warming is reducing snowpack, with uncertain effects on mountainous streamflow, a crucial water resource. Despite limited historical observations of groundwater–streamflow interactions above 2,500 m, new measurements in the Upper Colorado River headwaters indicate declining groundwater storage that is dated decades to millennia old. Here we use integrated hydrologic modelling spanning water years 2015–2021 to determine whether the loss of old-age groundwater buffers streamflow during low-snow years and whether that loss is exacerbated with warming. Results show that old-groundwater contributions to streams remain relatively steady through time, unlike the more variable contributions from young groundwater. Numerical experiments of increased surface air temperatures (+2.5 °C and +4 °C) increase rain–snow fractions and evapotranspiration and decrease runoff ratio by 2–3% per degree Celsius increase. As streamflow declines with warming, the age of groundwater supporting it gets older, in part owing to intermediate-aged (1–3 year) groundwater declining twice as fast. Simulations show that water table depths at higher elevations (>3,700 m) decline disproportionately and fail to recover even during wet years. These findings suggest altered groundwater–streamflow interactions with warming and snow loss, with implications for water resources.

Siirila-Woodburn, Erica R. [Lawrence Berkeley Nati↗

DOE OSTI2025

Classifying thermodynamic cloud phase using machine learning models

Vertically resolved thermodynamic cloud-phase classifications are essential for studies of atmospheric cloud and precipitation processes. The Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Thermodynamic Cloud Phase (THERMOCLDPHASE) value-added product (VAP) uses a multi-sensor approach to classify the thermodynamic cloud phase by combining lidar backscatter and depolarization, radar reflectivity, Doppler velocity, spectral width, microwave-radiometer-derived liquid water path, and radiosonde temperature measurements. The measured pixels are classified as ice, snow, mixed phase, liquid (cloud water), drizzle, rain, and liq_driz (liquid+drizzle). We use this product as the ground truth to train three machine learning (ML) models to predict the thermodynamic cloud phase from multi-sensor remote sensing measurements taken at the ARM North Slope of Alaska (NSA) observatory: a random forest (RF), a multi-layer perceptron (MLP), and a convolutional neural network (CNN) with a U-Net architecture. Evaluations against the outputs of the THERMOCLDPHASE VAP with 1 year of data show that the CNN outperforms the other two models, achieving the highest test accuracy, F1 score, and mean intersection over union (IOU). Analysis of ML confidence scores shows that ice, rain, and snow have higher confidence scores, followed by liquid, while mixed, drizzle, and liq_driz have lower scores. Feature importance analysis reveals that the mean Doppler velocity and vertically resolved temperature are the most influential data streams for ML thermodynamic cloud-phase predictions. Lidar measurements exhibit lower feature importance due to rapid signal attenuation caused by the frequent presence of persistent low-level clouds at the NSA site. The ML models' generalization capacity is further evaluated by applying them at another Arctic ARM site in Norway using data taken during the ARM Cold-Air Outbreaks in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment (COMBLE) field campaign. The models demonstrated similar performance to that observed at the NSA site. Finally, we evaluate the ML models' response to simulated instrument outages and signal degradation and show that a CNN U-Net model trained with input channel dropouts performs better when input fields are missing.

ARM Aerial Facility↗

DOE OSTI2025

Improved Representations of Longwave Surface Emissivity to Reduce Surface and Atmospheric Heating Biases in Earth System Models

Abstract Many Earth system models (ESMs) approximate surface emissivity as a broadband constant. This approximation reduces the computational burden, yet omits the spectral structure of emissivity and atmospheric absorption. Neglecting spectral variation in surface emission introduces biases in longwave (LW) atmospheric fluxes and heating. Biases are strongest over surfaces with strongly varying emissivity and minimal atmospheric opacity. We examine these biases over water, ice, and snow surfaces. We partition spectral emissivity into the 16 spectral bands utilized by a single‐column atmospheric radiative transfer model (RRTMG_LW) commonly used in ESMs. We quantify flux and heating biases introduced by broadband assumptions relative to the spectrally resolved case for standard atmospheric profiles over each surface type. Current assumptions tend to overestimate upwelling surface fluxes; for example, the greybody assumption overestimates flux by 1.6 W/m 2 (0.52%) at the bottom of a mid‐latitude winter atmosphere over ice, and by 2.33 (1.0%) at the top of atmosphere. The blackbody assumption tends to artificially cool Earth's surface, stabilizing the lower troposphere. Interestingly, the optimal broadband emissivity can deviate from the Planck‐weighted mean by up to 3% depending on surface type and atmospheric profile. We investigate bias sensitivity to surface temperature, cloud water path, and atmospheric water vapor. Bias is most sensitive to water vapor content, and least sensitive to cloud water path. Lastly, we show that a modified greybody method with updated broadband values can reduce total surface flux bias up to 1.69 , comparable to a five‐band approach and at a fraction of the computational cost.

Manzo, L. [Department of Earth System Science Univ↗

DOE OSTI2024

A numerical study of process complexity in permafrost dominated regions

Numerical modeling of permafrost dynamics requires adequate representation of atmospheric and surface processes, a reasonable parameter estimation strategy, and site-specific model development. The three main research objectives of the study are: (i) to propose a novel methodology that determines the required level of surface process complexity of permafrost models by conducting parameter sensitivity and calibration, (ii) to design and compare three numerical models of increasing surface process complexity, and (iii) to calibrate and validate the numerical models at the Yakou catchment on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau as an exemplary study site. The calibration was carried out by coupling the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (numerical model) and PEST (calibration tool). Simulation results showed that (i) A simple numerical model that considers only subsurface processes can simulate active layer development with the same accuracy as other more complex models that include surface processes. (ii) Peat and mineral soil layer permeability, Van Genuchten alpha, and porosity are highly sensitive. (iii) Liquid precipitation aids in increasing the rate of permafrost degradation. (iv) Deposition of snow insulated the subsurface during the thaw initiation period. We have developed and released an integrated code that couples the numerical software ATS to the calibration software PEST. The numerical model can be further used to determine the impacts of climate change on permafrost degradation.

Calibration↗

DOE OSTI2025

Sensitivity of Simulated Polar Climate to Improved Partitioning of Spectral Solar Irradiance Between Visible and Near‐Infrared Bands

The solar radiative processes that contribute to Earth's surface and atmospheric energy budgets are strongly dependent on wavelength. For example, snow and water vapor become more absorptive as incident radiation shifts from visible (VIS) to near-infrared (NIR) wavelengths. Some earth system models (ESMs) aggregate solar radiation into just two bands (VIS and NIR) partitioned at 0.7 μm for transmission between the atmospheric and surface components. In the widely used radiative transfer model RRTMG_SW this partition is near the center of the overlap spectral band spanning 0.625–0.778 μm, whose flux is often approximated as being evenly divided between the VIS and NIR surface bands. Using a hyperspectral radiative transfer model, we show that the fractional downwelling surface flux within the overlap band is usually distributed about 55.5%:44.5% VIS:NIR. This improved approximation shifts as much as 4.27 W m −2 from the NIR to the VIS band, leading to an instantaneous decrease in surface absorption of up to 0.91 W m −2 over snow-covered surfaces. Century-long fully coupled ESM simulations show surface absorption over snow decreases by over 1.6 W m −2 . The coupled response in sea ice regions amplifies the initial forcing ten-fold, and increases seasonal sea ice area by up to 4.9%. These results highlight the importance of accurately representing the spectral distribution of solar radiation in the cryosphere.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗