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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Using probability distribution function as a scaling approach to incorporate soil heterogeneity into biogeochemical models for greenhouse gas predictions (Final Technical Report)

The project investigated biogeochemical processes at terrestrial-aquatic interfaces (TAIs), focusing on soil microsite heterogeneity and its impact on greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes. Using laboratory experiments, modeling, and data integration, researchers explored redox-driven microbial processes under fluctuating hydrological conditions. Key advancements included modifying the DAMM-GHG model to incorporateelectron acceptor availability and enhancing the AquaMEND model for improved microbial metabolism representation. Results highlighted microsite redox variability as a key driver of GHG fluxes, informing Earth system models. The project fostered interdisciplinary collaborations, student training, and the development of novel modeling frameworks to improve Earth'senergy budget.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Comprehensive Greenhouse Gas Assessment of Biomass-Based Carbon Dioxide Removal and Storage

Biomass-based Carbon Removal and Storage (BiCRS) is a suite of technological pathways that provide a relatively affordable and high-potential way to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and simultaneously re-purpose residual biomass. BiCRS technologies are individually optimized to different biomass feedstocks, temperatures and oxygen, with the primary goal of capturing a high percentage of biomass-derived carbon dioxide and storing it in permanent below-ground storage (i.e. geologic storage), and a secondary goal of producing renewable energy. The current standard for BiCRS life cycle assessments does not account for greenhouse gas (carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide) fluxes from surface soil amendment of BiCRS byproducts (e.g. char, ash) and their alternate fates. This is partly due to a paucity of empirical data due to the novelty of BiCRS conversion technologies, the range in feedstocks, and the heterogeneity of soils to which they might be amended. To fill this gap in in the life-cycle assessment and provide a realistic range of parameters for a soil amendment component of the BiCRS life cycle assessment, we conducted an incubation experiment to measure soil carbon changes, microbial respiration, methane fluxes, and nitrous oxide fluxes from two different soils amended with char- and ash- byproducts from biomass after gasification to hydrogen, fast pyrolysis to bio-oil, and torrefaction. Our results suggest that nitrous oxide and methane emission or consumption from BiCRS char amendments to soil are context dependent. Nitrous oxide emissions from amendments are higher in soils with higher pH, whereas some char amendments to low pH soil can reduce N 2 O emissions relative to control. In contrast, methane is emitted from BiCRS char amended to low pH soil, but consumed or neutral relative to control when amended to high pH soil. We present carbon and nitrogen mass balance throughout the experiment to help understand short-term durability of BiCRS chars and their counterfactuals, and preliminary suggestions for revisions to the broader BiCRS Measurement, Reporting, and Verification framework.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Development of Laboratory Testbeds Simulating Real-World Greenhouse Gas Emissions [Slides]

In this presentation, I discussed the development of laboratory test beds that simulate field greenhouse gas emissions. Field experiments are used to test new landscape management practices that could reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, field experiments are very expensive and time consuming. Laboratory experiments are generally more cost efficient and timesaving. There are methods that can be used to make these laboratory tests more closely replicate natural systems for the improvement of agricultural lands used in biofuel and food production. The goal of this project is to develop a laboratory testbed that will mimic field greenhouse gas emissions. To achieve this goal, we used soil cores taken from agricultural and marginal lands, then attached fiberglass wicks to improve the drainage system in the core to simulate a more natural hydraulic system. The combination of using native soils and fiberglass wicks should demonstrate similar greenhouse gas emissions between the lab and the field. Our preliminary results suggest that the carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide flux from the agricultural land site were comparable to the greenhouse soil cores equipped with the drainage wicks. The data suggests that laboratory testbeds can be used to mimic field greenhouse gas emissions if parameters, such as soil water content are in a set range.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Antecedent conditions determine the biogeochemical response of coastal soils to seawater exposure

Coastal landscapes are increasingly exposed to seawater due to sea level rise and extreme weather events. The biogeochemical responses of these vulnerable ecosystems are poorly understood, limiting our ability to predict how their role in local and global biogeochemical cycles will shift under future conditions. Here we evaluate how antecedent conditions influence the biogeochemical response of soil to seawater inundation events based on a 42-day laboratory incubation experiment with soils collected from a natural salinity gradient across a coastal floodplain. We quantified influences of seawater inundation on intact soil cores through high-frequency carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ) gas fluxes measurements as well as ultrahigh resolution characterization of organic matter chemistry and metabolites. Mean CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes were higher after inundation compared to control cores for soils that had low in situ salinity. Soils with low in situ salinity also exhibited significant shifts in organic matter profiles after inundation, with surficial soils (0-7.5 cm) becoming more enriched in phenolic compounds, compared to deeper soils (7.5-15 cm). The number of biochemical transformations inferred from mass spectrometry increased significantly after inundation for soils with low in situ salinity, and a trend of decreasing thermodynamic favorability with increasing salinity was observed, suggesting an increase in microbial activity following inundation. Our results suggest that seawater inundation of low-salinity terrestrial environments can lead to increased microbial activity, preferential depletion of more thermodynamically favorable compounds, and increased soil carbon release. Finally, we conclude that the biogeochemical impacts of future seawater exposure will be modulated by antecedent conditions associated with landscape position within coastal watersheds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Climate forcing controls on carbon terrestrial fluxes during shale weathering

Climate influences near-surface biogeochemical processes and thereby determines the partitioning of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in shale, and yet the controls on carbon (C) weathering fluxes remain poorly constrained. Using a dataset that characterizes biogeochemical responses to climate forcing in shale regolith, we implement a numerical model that describes the effects of water infiltration events, gas exchange, and temperature fluctuations on soil respiration and mineral weathering at a seasonal timescale. Our modeling approach allows us to quantitatively disentangle the controls of transient climate forcing and biogeochemical mechanisms on C partitioning. We find that ~3% of soil CO 2 (1.02 mol C/m 2 /y) is exported to the subsurface during large infiltration events. Here, net atmospheric CO 2 drawdown primarily occurs during spring snowmelt, governs the aqueous C exports (61%), and exceeds the CO 2 flux generated by pyrite and petrogenic organic matter oxidation (~0.2 mol C/m 2 /y). We show that shale CO 2 consumption results from the temporal coupling between soil microbial respiration and carbonate weathering. This coupling is driven by the impacts of hydrologic fluctuations on fresh organic matter availability and CO 2 transport to the weathering front. Diffusion-limited transport of gases under transient hydrological conditions exerts an important control on CO 2 (g) egress patterns and thus must be considered when inferring soil CO 2 drawdown from the gas phase composition. Our findings emphasize the importance of seasonal climate forcing in shaping the net contribution of shale weathering to terrestrial C fluxes and suggest that warmer conditions could reduce the potential for shale weathering to act as a CO 2 sink.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

High methane concentrations in tidal salt marsh soils: Where does the methane go?

Abstract Tidal salt marshes produce and emit CH 4 . Therefore, it is critical to understand the biogeochemical controls that regulate CH 4 spatial and temporal dynamics in wetlands. The prevailing paradigm assumes that acetoclastic methanogenesis is the dominant pathway for CH 4 production, and higher salinity concentrations inhibit CH 4 production in salt marshes. Recent evidence shows that CH 4 is produced within salt marshes via methylotrophic methanogenesis, a process not inhibited by sulfate reduction. To further explore this conundrum, we performed measurements of soil–atmosphere CH 4 and CO 2 fluxes coupled with depth profiles of soil CH 4 and CO 2 pore water gas concentrations, stable and radioisotopes, pore water chemistry, and microbial community composition to assess CH 4 production and fate within a temperate tidal salt marsh. We found unexpectedly high CH 4 concentrations up to 145,000 μmol mol −1 positively correlated with S 2− (salinity range: 6.6–14.5 ppt). Despite large CH 4 production within the soil, soil–atmosphere CH 4 fluxes were low but with higher emissions and extreme variability during plant senescence (84.3 ± 684.4 nmol m −2 s −1 ). CH 4 and CO 2 within the soil pore water were produced from young carbon, with most Δ 14 C‐CH 4 and Δ 14 C‐CO 2 values at or above modern. We found evidence that CH 4 within soils was produced by methylotrophic and hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis. Several pathways exist after CH 4 is produced, including diffusion into the atmosphere, CH 4 oxidation, and lateral export to adjacent tidal creeks; the latter being the most likely dominant flux. Our findings demonstrate that CH 4 production and fluxes are biogeochemically heterogeneous, with multiple processes and pathways that can co‐occur and vary in importance over the year. This study highlights the potential for high CH 4 production, the need to understand the underlying biogeochemical controls, and the challenges of evaluating CH 4 budgets and blue carbon in salt marshes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Methane flux from transplanted soil monoliths depends on moisture, but not origin

Soils both produce and consume methane (CH 4 ), a potent greenhouse gas that contributes to climate change. In coastal forests, upland soils are shifting from being CH 4 sinks to sources as sea levels rise, increasingly flooding soils with little prior inundation history. Ecosystem CH 4 budgets are highly uncertain due in part to the difficulty in separating fluxes measured at the soil surface into individual production and consumption processes which are likely to have different responses to future environmental conditions. Here, we measured growing season CH 4 fluxes from soil monoliths transplanted four years prior along an inundation and salinity gradient to determine how changes in abiotic conditions control CH 4 flux rates. To parse net fluxes measured at the soil surface into their component gross rates, we paired field measurements with a stable isotope pool dilution incubation of surface soils. Throughout the growing season, net soil surface CH 4 flux was positively correlated with soil moisture (p < 0.01), with lowland-located soils tending towards CH 4 sources (mean 0.349 ± 1.11 mg CH 4 -C m -2 hr -1 , error is standard deviation) and upland-located soils tending towards CH 4 sinks (-0.003 ± 0.003 mg CH 4 -C m -2 hr -1 ). Transplanted soils’ fluxes were statistically identical to their native neighbors once microtopography-driven differences in soil moisture were controlled for. The pool dilution experiment revealed that production and consumption rates were similar in upland and lowland surface soils (2.82 ± 3.29 µmol CH 4 g -1 dry soil d -1 production, 3.47 ± 2.03 µmol CH 4 g -1 dry soil d -1 consumption), indicating the majority of production likely occurs at depth in lowland soils. Both gross and net fluxes from transplanted soils showed no effect of soil origin after four years, suggesting low resistance of CH 4 cycling to global change drivers. Our results indicate the strength of the coastal forest CH 4 sink is likely to decrease in proportion to sea-level rise.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Development of Laboratory Testbeds Simulating Real-World Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Climate change leads to drastic variations in the environment that can threaten food security. To protect the security and prosperity of the environment, new agricultural practices that mitigate greenhouse gas emissions need to be developed. Agriculture plays a large role in the emissions of greenhouse gases, thus a need for new practices. At present, testing landscape management practices for carbon sequestration and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions are expensive because such tests often require intricate field experiments. Laboratory tests on landscape management practices often fail to simulate and accurately represent the natural systems researchers intend to study. There are methods that can be used to make these laboratory tests more closely replicate natural systems for the improvement of agricultural lands used in biofuel and food production. The goal of this project is to develop a laboratory testbed replicating field conditions that will mimic field greenhouse gas emissions. To achieve this goal, we used soil cores taken from agricultural and marginal lands, then attached fiberglass wicks to improve the drainage system in the soil core to simulate a more natural hydraulic system. The soil cores with the wicks were used to compared to greenhouse gas emissions observed in the field. Our preliminary results suggest that the soil carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide flux from the agricultural land site were comparable to the soil cores equipped with the drainage wicks. The data suggests that laboratory testbeds can be used to mimic field greenhouse gas emissions if parameters, such as soil water content were in a set range. The laboratory testbed produces similar greenhouse gas emissions to the agricultural site when the soil water content was between 15-25%.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Soil CO2 and CH4 Chamber Fluxes in Tussock Tundra, Council Road Mile Marker 71, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, 2016-2019

In August-September 2016, June-August 2017, June-August 2018, and June 2019, co-located measurements were made of surface CH4 and CO2 flux, soil temperature, moisture, and thaw depth. Measurements were made at 35 chamber locations at the Council Mile Marker 71 Site (CN_MM71) on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska. Chamber locations include upland moist acidic tussock tundra, thermo-erosional slopes, and periodically inundated lowland water channels. The dataset includes three *.csv data files with measurements using transparent and opaque chambers (CO2 and CH4 fluxes in light and dark) plus one *.pdf user guide.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hydrological control of chemical weathering and rock-carbon fluxes: East River, Colorado

This data package is used in the manuscript entitled “Hydrological control of chemical weathering and rock-carbon fluxes”. The field study was conducted in a lower montane hillslope of the East River watershed, underlain by Mancos Shale, within the lower 140 m section of a transect that extends nearly 1 km to its local peak. The data in this package, in CSV file format, were collected from Fall 2016 to fall 2021, including depth-resolved dynamic water table depths, subsurface water fluxes, solid phase (soil to bedrock) chemical compositions, geochemical properties of porewater and pore-gas, including radio carbon concentrations. The detailed methods of field studies, laboratory chemical analyses, and calculations are described in the Methods section and in the dataset file: Wan_et_al_Methods.pdf. The dataset additionally includes a file-level metadata (flmd.csv) file that lists each file contained in the dataset with associated metadata; and a data dictionary (dd.csv) file that contains column/row headers used throughout the files along with a definition, units, and data type.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Soil C stock and CO2 production data for Soong et al. 2021: Effects of five years of soil warming at Blodgett Forest, CA.

Subsoils below 20 cm are an important reservoir in the global carbon cycle, but little is known about their vulnerability under climate change. We measured subsoil carbon in warmed vs control plots of a conifer forest after 4.5 years of whole-soil warming (4°C). We also measured soil CO2 efflux at the surface and soil CO2 concentrations along the soil profile. Over the 4.5 years we observed that warming resulted in a loss of subsoil carbon stocks (−33 ± 11%), primarily from unprotected particulate organic matter. Warming also stimulated a sustained 30 ± 4% increase in soil CO2 efflux due to increased CO2 production through the whole-soil profile. The observed in situ decline in subsoil carbon stocks with warming is now definitive evidence of a positive soil carbon-climate feedback, which could not be concluded based on increases in CO2 effluxes alone. This dataset comprises (1) 13C and C recovery in 2014, 2016, and 2018 1m soil cores sampled in 10cm increments. (2) Monthly surface CO2 fluxes from 2014 to 2018. (3) Monthly gas well sample [CO2] and production data. And (4) density fraction data for three depths of cores recovered in 2017.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Patch-level chamber-based CH4 and CO2 flux measurements in freshwater and salt marshes of coastal Louisiana

This dataset contains chamber-based carbon dioxide and methane flux measurements from ecohydrological patches in two coastal wetlands in Louisiana (within the footprint of AmeriFlux sites US-LA2 and US-LA3). Measurements span four patches, two per wetland. At the freshwater marsh (US-LA2), patches were dominated by Sagittaria lancifolia or co-dominated by Sagittaria lancifolia and Typha latifolia. At the salt marsh site (US-LA3), patches were dominated by Spartina alterniflora or Juncus roemerianus. Flux measurements included (i) wetland surface-level measurements encompassing the entire soil-water-vegetation column and (ii) soil-water surface chamber measurements that excluded emergent vegetation. At US-LA3, open-water pools were common and were also measured as a patch type. With this data we aimed to assess differences in gas flux pathways within ecohydrological patches across different wetland types. Files can be read in any program or code typical of processing .csv file types. "PatchChambers_LA2LA3.csv" covers flux data from patch level chambers which includes bulk CO2/CH4 flux encompassing water, soil, and vegetation within each chamber. "Water_Soil_SurfaceChamber_LA2LA3.csv" has CO2/CH4 flux data from chambers measuring only the water-soil surface without the effects of vegetation. Metadata can be found in the similarly named files for each data sheet ("xxxx_md.csv").

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evolutionary and functional relationships between plant and microbial C 1 metabolism in terrestrial ecosystems

One-carbon (C 1 ) metabolism, centered on the universal methyl donor S-adenosyl methionine (SAM), plays critical roles in biosynthesis, redox regulation, and stress responses across plants and microbes. A recently proposed photosynthetic C 1 pathway links SAM methyl groups directly to RuBisCO-mediated CO 2 assimilation and integrates with nitrogen and sulfur metabolism. Light-dependent SAM synthesis may regulate the methylation of biopolymers and specialized metabolites and help mitigate photorespiratory stress under elevated temperature and drought. Phylogenetic analysis of two core enzymes suggests evolutionary continuity from methylotrophic microbes to land plants, supporting microbial origins via endosymbiotic gene transfer. Beyond intracellular roles, C 1 metabolism drives biosphere–atmosphere exchange via gases such as methane, methanol, formic acid, and formaldehyde, and numerous specialized volatiles synthesized through SAM methylation. S-methylmethionine, a mobile C 1 metabolite, may mediate phloem transport of reduced sulfur, nitrogen, and methyl groups, linking above- and belowground C 1 cycling in plants. Advances in real-time gas sensing now allow the high-frequency quantification of C 1 fluxes from leaves, stems, and soils, highlighting C 1 metabolism as a critical and underrecognized component of terrestrial carbon and nutrient cycling. Given its microbial ancestry and the production of diverse volatile biosignatures, C 1 metabolism may also offer unique insights into life's origins and biosignature detection on exoplanets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

High-throughput physiochemical and biogeochemical characterization for coastal soils and waters

Coastal environments span large biogeochemical gradients and provide critical ecosystem services worldwide, thereby having a disproportionately larger influence on global biogeochemical cycles and greenhouse gas fluxes than their geographical extent suggests. Despite this, cohesive quantitative tools to understand and describe these environments, including scalable, standardized field and laboratory methodologies are lacking. In this work, we advanced the streamlining and standardizing of quantitative approaches to measure and understand coastal physiochemical properties and biogeochemical processes across systems and scales. Outcomes of this work includes workflows for multiple complementary and in-line analyses, from basic physiochemical datasets to targeted molecular approaches and proof of concept through manipulation and analysis of coastal soils and waters with varying salinity, minerology, and biogeochemistry.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Observations of surface energy fluxes and meteorology in the seasonally snow-covered high-elevation East River watershed during SPLASH, 2021–2023

Abstract. From autumn 2021 through summer 2023, scientists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and partners conducted the Study of Precipitation, the Lower Atmosphere, and Surface for Hydrometeorology (SPLASH) campaign in the East River watershed of Colorado. One objective of SPLASH was to observe the transfer of energy between the atmosphere and the surface, which was done at several locations. Two remote sites were chosen that did not have access to power utilities. These were along the valley floor near the East River in the vicinity of the unincorporated town of Gothic, Colorado. Energy balance measurements were made at these locations using autonomous, single-level flux towers referred to as atmospheric surface flux stations (ASFSs). The ASFSs were deployed on 28 September 2021 at the Kettle Ponds Annex site and on 12 October 2021 at the Avery Picnic site and operated until 19 July and 21 June 2023, respectively. Measurements included basic meteorology; upward and downward longwave and shortwave radiative fluxes and subsurface conductive flux, each at 1 min resolution; 3-D winds from a sonic anemometer and H2O/CO2 from an open-path gas analyzer, both at 20 Hz from which sensible, latent heat, and CO2 fluxes were derived; and profiles of soil properties in the upper 0.5 m (both sites) and temperature profiles through the snow (at Avery Picnic), each reported between 10 min and 6 h. The system uptime was 97 % (Kettle Ponds) and 90 % (Avery Picnic), and collectively 1184 d of data was obtained between the stations. The purpose of this article is to document the ASFS deployment at SPLASH, to document the data acquisition and post-processing of measurements, and to serve as a guide for interested users of the data sets, which are archived at Zenodo (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10313363, Cox et al., 2023b; https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10327409, Cox et al., 2023c; https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10313894, Cox et al., 2023d; https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10307825, Cox et al., 2023e; https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10310520, Cox et al., 2023f) with the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license.

Cox, Christopher J. (ORCID:0000000322037173)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data from: “Bald Cypress (Taxodium distichum) Knees Are Methane Sources Controlled by Geomorphology, Climate, and Hydrologic Extremes”

This dataset is associated with the manuscript “Bald Cypress (Taxodium distichum) Knees Are Methane Sources Controlled by Geomorphology, Climate, and Hydrologic Extremes”. Bald cypress “knees” (aboveground woody roots) have been shown to contribute to wetland methane (CH4) efflux, with large variation within and between studies. To explain this variation, we investigated spatial (i.e., across knee surface, within sites, between sites) and temporal dynamics of CH4 fluxes from knees. Methane fluxes were collected from September 2022 to August 2024 at three locations in western Kentucky, USA, within the Mississippi Alluvial Valley: a main channel (semi-permanently flooded), side channel (seasonally flooded), and reservoir edge (artificially flooded). Knee CH4 fluxes (“Ross_et_al_Knee_Flux_Data.csv”) were measured from multiple heights on knees (20, 40, and 60 cm) of various sizes (knee straight height ranged from 24 to 93 cm) using a LiCOR LI-7810 CH4/CO2/H2O Trace Gas Analyzer. The dataset also includes environmental variables collected with each knee measurement, including water level adjusted for knee-to-knee elevational differences, subsurface and air temperature, and humidity. Soil CH4 fluxes (“Ross_et_al_Soil_Flux_Data.csv”) were also collected adjacent to knees (starting in April 2023) when water levels didn’t overtop soil collars, using a LiCOR Smart Chamber and calculated in SoilFluxPro software. The soil flux dataset includes associated variables collected by the Smart Chamber. Three separate files (“*_Water_Level.csv”) are included for water level and subsurface temperature data collected at each site using HOBO U20L barometric pressure loggers. Each file type (knee flux, soil flux, water level) has an associated data dictionary (“*_dd.csv”). For specifics on methodology used and calculations, see the associated manuscript. The R script includes code used for figures and analyses reported in the manuscript.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The climate change mitigation potential of annual grasslands under future climates

Abstract Composted manure and green waste amendments have been shown to increase net carbon (C) sequestration in rangeland soils and have been proposed as a means to help lower atmospheric CO 2 concentrations. However, the effect of climate change on soil organic C (SOC) stocks and greenhouse gas emissions in rangelands is not well understood, and the viability of climate change mitigation strategies under future conditions is even less certain. We used a process‐based biogeochemical model (DayCent) at a daily time step to explore the long‐term effects of potential future climate changes on C and greenhouse gas dynamics in annual grassland ecosystems. We then used the model to explore how the same ecosystems might respond to climate change following compost amendments to soils and determined the long‐term viability of net SOC sequestration under changing climates. We simulated net primary productivity (NPP), SOC, and greenhouse gas fluxes across seven California annual grasslands with and without compost amendments. We drove the DayCent simulations with field data and with site‐specific daily climate data from two Earth system models (CanESM2 and HadGEM‐ES) and two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) through 2100. NPP and SOC stocks in unamended and amended ecosystems were surprisingly insensitive to projected climate changes. A one‐time amendment of compost to rangeland acted as a slow‐release organic fertilizer and increased NPP by up to 390–814 kg C ha −1 year −1 across sites. The amendment effect on NPP was not sensitive to Earth system model or emissions scenario and endured through the end of the century. Net SOC sequestration amounted to 1.96 ± 0.02 Mg C ha −1 relative to unamended soils at the maximum amendment effect. Averaged across sites and scenarios, SOC sequestration peaked 22 ± 1 years after amendment and declined but remained positive throughout the century. Though compost stimulated nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions, the cumulative net emissions (in CO 2 equivalents) due to compost were far less than the amount of SOC sequestered. Compost amendments resulted in a net climate benefit of 69.6 ± 0.5 Tg CO 2 e 20 ± 1 years after amendment if applied to similar ecosystems across the state, amounting to 39% of California's rangeland. These results suggest that the biogeochemical benefits of a single amendment of compost to rangelands in California are insensitive to climate change and could contribute to decadal‐scale climate change mitigation goals alongside emissions reductions.

Mayer, Allegra↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data from: Coupled machine learning-ecosystem ensemble models substantially improve predictions of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) fluxes from US croplands

Nitrous oxide (N₂O) is a potent and persistent greenhouse gas, with rising atmospheric concentrations driven in part by inefficient use of synthetic nitrogen (N) fertilizers in agriculture. Predicting soil N₂O emissions is challenging due to high spatial and temporal variability arising from complex soil biogeochemical processes. Process-based ecosystem models and standalone machine learning (ML) approaches without extensive site-specific calibration often miss high emission episodes. Here, we show how an Ensemble Modeling System (EMS) based on outputs from an ensemble of ecosystem models coupled to an ensemble of ML models can improve predictions and understanding of N2O fluxes from US cropland. Trained and validated on approximately 12,000 N2O chamber measurements at 17 U.S. Midwest sites (six crops, 35 management practices), the EMS accurately predicted daily fluxes of N2O at both training (R² = 0.84, RMSE = 16.4 g N ha⁻¹ d⁻¹) and held-out testing sites (R² = 0.84, RMSE = 6.2 g N ha⁻¹ d⁻¹). Analyses identified six dominant N₂O drivers: soil organic carbon (SOC), NH₄⁺, NO₃⁻, water-filled pore space (WFPS), soil temperature, and biomass production. Wet, warm soils produced large N₂O peaks only with sufficient SOC and mineral N; in low-SOC soils, fluxes remained low. Incorporating these drivers into process-based models might significantly improve their predictive capacity. The EMS demonstrates a strong potential to predict N₂O fluxes at unseen sites, enabling more reliable regional inventories, improved gap-filling where measurements are sparse, and enhanced understanding of mechanisms to advance targeted mitigation strategies in food, feed, and bioenergy crops.

agricultural sciences↗