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NASA NTRS2005

A Forecast of Reduced Solar Activity and Its Implications for NASA

The "Solar Dynamo" method of solar activity forecasting is reviewed. Known generically as a 'precursor" method, insofar as it uses observations which precede solar activity generation, this method now uses the Solar Dynamo Amplitude (SODA) Index to estimate future long-term solar activity. The peak amplitude of the next solar cycle (#24), is estimated at roughly 124 in terms of smoothed F10.7 Radio Flux and 74 in terms of the older, more traditional smoothed international or Zurich Sunspot number (Ri or Rz). These values are significantly smaller than the amplitudes of recent solar cycles. Levels of activity stay large for about four years near the peak in smoothed activity, which is estimated to occur near the 2012 timeflame. Confidence is added to the prediction of low activity by numerous examinations of the Sun s weakened polar field. Direct measurements are obtained by the Mount Wilson Solar Observatory and the Wilcox Solar Observatory. Further support is obtained by examining the Sun s polar faculae (bright features), the shape of coronal soft X-ray "holes," and the shape of the "source surface" - a calculated coronal feature which maps the large scale structure of the Sun s field. These features do not show the characteristics of well-formed polar coronal holes associated with typical solar minima. They show stunted polar field levels, which are thought to result in stunted levels of solar activity during solar cycle #24. The reduced levels of solar activity would have concomitant effects upon the space environment in which satellites orbit. In particular, the largest influences would affect orbit determination of satellites in LEO (Low Earth Orbit), based upon the altered thermospheric and exospheric densities. A decrease in solar activity would result in smaller satellite decay rates, as well as fewer large solar events that can destroy satellite electronic functions. Other effects of reduced solar activity upon the space environment include enhanced galactic cosmic rays and more space debris at low altitudes (from the decay of old satellite parts, etc.). The reasons are well known: namely, solar activity serves to sweep the inner heliosphere of galactic cosmic rays, and lower exospheric densities result in decreased drag on LEO debris, allowing longer lifetimes.

Schatten, Kenneth↗
NASA NTRS2007

Solar Cycle #24 and the Solar Dynamo

We focus on two solar aspects related to flight dynamics. These are the solar dynamo and long-term solar activity predictions. The nature of the solar dynamo is central to solar activity predictions, and these predictions are important for orbital planning of satellites in low earth orbit (LEO). The reason is that the solar ultraviolet (UV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectral irradiances inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth, forming the thermosphere and exosphere through which these satellites orbit. Concerning the dynamo, we discuss some recent novel approaches towards its understanding. For solar predictions we concentrate on a solar precursor method, in which the Sun s polar field plays a major role in forecasting the next cycle s activity based upon the Babcock- Leighton dynamo. With a current low value for the Sun s polar field, this method predicts that solar cycle #24 will be one of the lowest in recent times, with smoothed F10.7 radio flux values peaking near 130+ 30 (2 4, in the 2013 timeframe. One may have to consider solar activity as far back as the early 20th century to find a cycle of comparable magnitude. Concomitant effects of low solar activity upon satellites in LEO will need to be considered, such as enhancements in orbital debris. Support for our prediction of a low solar cycle #24 is borne out by the lack of new cycle sunspots at least through the first half of 2007. Usually at the present epoch in the solar cycle (-7+ years after the last solar maximum), for a normal size following cycle, new cycle sunspots would be seen. The lack of their appearance at this time is only consistent with a low cycle #24. Polar field observations of a weak magnitude are consistent with unusual structures seen in the Sun s corona. Polar coronal holes are the hallmarks of the Sun s open field structures. At present, it appears that the polar coronal holes are relatively weak, and there have been many equatorial coronal holes. This appears consistent with a weakening polar field, but coronal hole data must be scrutinized carefully as observing techniques have changed. We also discuss new solar dynamo ideas, and the SODA (Solar Dynamo Amplitude) index, which provides the user with the ability to track the Sun s hidden, dynamo magnetic fields throughout the various stages of the Sun s cycle. Our solar dynamo ideas are a modernization and rejuvenation of the Babcock-Leighton original idea of a shallow solar dynamo, using modem observations that appear to support their shallow dynamo viewpoint. We are in awe of being able to see an object the size of the Sun undergoing as dramatic a change as our model provides in a few short years. The Sun, however, has undergone changes as rapid as this before! The weather on the Sun is at least as fickle as the weather on the Earth.

Pesnell, W. Dean↗
NASA NTRS2007

Solar Cycle #24 and the Solar Dynamo

We focus on two solar aspects related to flight dynamics. These are the solar dynamo and long-term solar activity predictions. The nature of the solar dynamo is central to solar activity predictions, and these predictions are important for orbital planning of satellites in low earth orbit (LEO). The reason is that the solar ultraviolet (UV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectral irradiances inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth, forming the thermosphere and exosphere through which these satellites orbit. Concerning the dynamo, we discuss some recent novel approaches towards its understanding. For solar predictions we concentrate on a solar precursor method, in which the Sun's polar field plays a major role in forecasting the next cycle s activity based upon the Babcock-Leighton dynamo. With a current low value for the Sun s polar field, this method predicts that solar cycle #24 will be one of the lowest in recent times, with smoothed F10.7 radio flux values peaking near 130 plus or minus 30 (2 sigma), in the 2013 timeframe. One may have to consider solar activity as far back as the early 20th century to find a cycle of comparable magnitude. Concomitant effects of low solar activity upon satellites in LEO will need to be considered, such as enhancements in orbital debris. Support for our prediction of a low solar cycle #24 is borne out by the lack of new cycle sunspots at least through the first half of 2007. Usually at the present epoch in the solar cycle (approx. 7+ years after the last solar maximum), for a normal size following cycle, new cycle sunspots would be seen. The lack of their appearance at this time is only consistent with a low cycle #24. Polar field observations of a weak magnitude are consistent with unusual structures seen in the Sun s corona. Polar coronal holes are the hallmarks of the Sun's open field structures. At present, it appears that the polar coronal holes are relatively weak, and there have been many equatorial coronal holes. This appears consistent with a weakening polar field, but coronal hole data must be scrutinized carefully as observing techniques have changed. We also discuss new solar dynamo ideas, and the SODA (SOlar Dynamo Amplitude) index, which provides the user with the ability to track the Sun's hidden, dynamo magnetic fields throughout the various stages of the Sun's cycle. Our solar dynamo ideas are a modernization and rejuvenation of the Babcock-Leighton original idea of a shallow solar dynamo, using modern observations that appear to support their shallow dynamo viewpoint. We are in awe of being able to see an object the size of the Sun undergoing as dramatic a change as our model provides in a few short years. The Sun, however, has undergone changes as rapid as this before! The weather on the Sun is at least as fickle as the weather on the Earth.

Schatten, Kenneth↗
NASA NTRS1977

A comparison of solar wind streams and coronal structure near solar minimum

Solar wind data from the MIT detectors on the IMP 7 and 8 satellites and the SOLRAD 11B satellite for the solar-minimum period September-December, 1976, were compared with X-ray images of the solar corona taken by rocket-borne telescopes on September 16 and November 17, 1976. There was no compelling evidence that a coronal hole was the source of any high speed stream. Thus it is possible that either coronal holes were not the sources of all recurrent high-speed solar wind streams during the declining phase of the solar cycle, as might be inferred from the Skylab period, or there was a change in the appearance of some magnetic field regions near the time of solar minimum.

Nolte, J. T.↗
NASA NTRS2010

The Peculiar Solar Minimum 23/24 Revealed by the Microwave Butterfly Diagram

The diminished polar magnetic field strength during the minimum between cycles 23 and 24 is also reflected in the thermal radio emission originating from the polar chromosphere. During solar minima, the polar corona has extended coronal holes containing intense unipolar flux. In microwave images, the coronal holes appear bright, with a brightness enhancement of 500 to 2000 K with respect to the quiet Sun. The brightness enhancement corresponds to the upper chromosphere, where the plasma temperature is approx.10000 K. We constructed a microwave butterfly diagram using the synoptic images obtained by the Nobeyama radioheliograph (NoRH) showing the evolution of the polar and low latitude brightness temperature. While the polar brightness reveals the chromospheric conditions, the low latitude brightness is attributed to active regions in the corona. When we compared the microwave butterfly diagram with the magnetic butterfly diagram, we found a good correlation between the microwave brightness enhancement and the polar field strength. The microwave butterfly diagram covers part of solar cycle 22, whole of cycle 23, and part of cycle 24, thus enabling comparison between the cycle 23/24 and cycle 22/23 minima. The microwave brightness during the cycle 23/24 minimum was found to be lower than that during the cycle 22/23 minimum by approx.250 K. The reduced brightness temperature is consistent with the reduced polar field strength during the cycle 23/24 minimum seen in the magnetic butterfly diagram. We suggest that the microwave brightness at the solar poles is a good indicator of the speed of the solar wind sampled by Ulysses at high latitudes..

Gopalswamy, Natchimuthuk↗
NASA NTRS2008

On the Relationship Between Solar Wind Speed, Geomagnetic Activity, and the Solar Cycle Using Annual Values

The aa index can be decomposed into two separate components: the leading sporadic component due to solar activity as measured by sunspot number and the residual or recurrent component due to interplanetary disturbances, such as coronal holes. For the interval 1964-2006, a highly statistically important correlation (r = 0.749) is found between annual averages of the aa index and the solar wind speed (especially between the residual component of aa and the solar wind speed, r = 0.865). Because cyclic averages of aa (and the residual component) have trended upward during cycles 11-23, cyclic averages of solar wind speed are inferred to have also trended upward.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Coronal Mass Ejections and Their Heliospheric Consequences

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been recognized as the most energetic phenomenon in the heliosphere, deriving their energy from the stressed magnetic fields on the Sun. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) mission has accumulated a wealth of information on CMEs with unprecedented extent, clarity, and uniformity. The CME data base has been useful in confirming results from past missions and obtaining a number of new results on the initiation, propagation, and heliospheric consequences of CMEs. This paper highlights some of the recent results on the morphological, physical, and kinematic properties of CMEs observed during solar cycle 23. White-light signatures of CMEs and their utility in inferring coronal magnetic fields near the Sun will be discussed. Presence of coronal holes near eruption regions have been shown to significantly modify the trajectories of CMEs. New results on the interaction of CMEs with large-scale structures such as coronal holes and other CMEs will be presented. Finally, the CME consequences in the heliosphere such as interplanetary shocks, type II radio bursts, energetic particles, geomagnetic storms, and cosmic ray modulation will be discussed

Gopalswamy, Nat↗
NASA NTRS2005

The Formation of CIRs at Stream-Stream Interfaces and Resultant Geomagnetic Activity

Corotating interaction regions (CIRs) are regions of compressed plasma formed at the leading edges of corotating high-speed solar wind streams originating in coronal holes as they interact with the preceding slow solar wind. Although particularly prominent features of the solar wind during the declining and minimum phases of the 11-year solar cycle, they may also be present at times of higher solar activity. We describe how CIRs are formed, and their geomagnetic effects, which principally result from brief southward interplanetary magnetic field excursions associated with Alfven waves. Seasonal and long-term variations in these effects are briefly discussed.

Richardson, I. G.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Relativistic magnetospheric electrons: Lower ionospheric conductivity and long-term atmospheric variability

Long term observations of relativistic electrons in the earth's outer magnetosphere show a strong solar cycle dependence with a prominent intensity maximum during the approach to solar minimum. This population therefore closely corresponds to the presence of high speed solar wind streams emanating from solar coronal holes. Using a numerical code, the precipitating electron energy deposition in the earth's upper and middle atmosphere were calculated. Observed events (typically persisting several days) would have maximum effect in the 40 to 60 km altitude range with peak energy depositions greater than 110 keV/cu cm-s. It is suggested that this electron population could play an important long term role in modulating lower D region ionization and middle atmospheric ozone chemistry. Methods are described of observing middle atmospheric and lower ionospheric effects of the electrons including balloon, riometer, and space-based ozone sensor systems. A particularly promising approach may involve the monitoring of global Schumann resonance modes which are sensitive to global changes in the properties of the earth-ionosphere cavity. Present work indicates that Schumann resonance properties are moderately correlated with the flux of precipitating relativistic electrons thus offering the possibility of continuously monitoring this aspect of magnetosphere-atmosphere coupling.

Baker, D. N.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Current Sheets in the Corona and the Complexity of Slow Wind

The origin of the slow solar wind has long been one of the most important problems in solar/heliospheric physics. Two observational constraints make this problem especially challenging. First, the slow wind has the composition of the closed-field corona, unlike the fast wind that originates on open field lines. Second, the slow wind has substantial angular extent, of order 30 degrees, which is much larger than the widths observed for streamer stalks or the widths expected theoretically for a dynamic heliospheric current sheet. We propose that the slow wind originates from an intricate network of narrow (possibly singular) open-field corridors that emanate from the polar coronal hole regions. Using topological arguments, we show that these corridors must be ubiquitous in the solar corona. The total solar eclipse in August 2008, near the lowest point of cycle 23 affords an ideal opportunity to test this theory by using the ultra-high resolution Predictive Science's (PSI) eclipse model for the corona and wind. Analysis of the PSI eclipse model demonstrates that the extent and scales of the open-field corridors can account for both the angular width of the slow wind and its closed-field composition. We discuss the implications of our slow wind theory for the structure of the corona and heliosphere at solar minimum and describe further observational and theoretical tests.

Antiochos, Spiro↗
NASA NTRS1977

A study of the background corona near solar minimum

Equatorial and polar K and F coronal components during the declining phase of the solar cycle are studied through use of the white light coronagraph data obtained by Skylab. At this phase of the solar cycle, streams and holes dominate the equatorial corona (approximately 50 and 30% of the time, respectively) between 2.5 and 5.5 solar radii; however, two episodes are noted when equatorial background density of the corona could be distinguished. The derived background density is less than 15% below values predicted by the models of Newkirk (1967) and Saito (1970). The brightness of the F-corona is also discussed.

Saito, K.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Exploration of Solar Wind Acceleration Region Using Interplanetary Scintillation of Water Vapor Maser Source and Quasars

Single-station observations of interplanetary scintillation (IPS) at three microwave frequencies; 2 GHz, 8 GHz and 22 GHz have been carried out between 1989 and 1998 using a large (34 m farad) radio telescope at the Kashima Space Research Center of the Communications Research Laboratory. The aim of these observations is to explore the near-sun solar wind, which is the key region for the study of the solar wind acceleration mechanism. Strong quasars; 3C279 and 3C273B were used for Kashima IPS observations at 2 GHz and 8 GHz, and a water vapor maser source, IRC20431 was used for the IPS observations at 22 GHz. Solar wind velocities derived from Kashima IPS data suggest that the solar wind acceleration takes place at radial distances between 10 and 30 solar radii (R(sub s)) from the sun. Properties of the turbulence spectrum (e.g. anisotropy, spectral index, inner scale) inferred from Kashima data are found to change systematically in the solar wind acceleration region. While the solar wind in the maximum phase appears to be dominated by the slow wind, fast and rarefied winds associated with coronal holes are found to develop significantly at high latitudes as the solar activity declines. Nevertheless, Kashima data suggests that the location of the acceleration region is stable throughout the solar cycle.

Tokumaru, Munetoshi↗
NASA NTRS1989

The solar wind - Advances in our knowledge through two solar cycles

As the Pioneer and Voyager spacecraft have moved outward they have gradually unfolded a view of distant regions of the heliosphere. Information on the solar wind velocity, density and temperature as a function of distance out to more than 40 AU has been gathered. Meanwhile the description of the solar wind has evolved. Long-standing questions on the sources of the wind causing geomagnetic activity were clarified by the discovery of coronal holes and coronal mass ejections. The propagation of the resultant solar wind disturbances through the heliosphere has been studied using both observations and models. Plasma physical processes have been studied. This review focuses on the development of the concepts that have been used to describe the solar wind in the three dimensional heliosphere over the last two solar cycles. Collisionless shocks, transient disturbances in space, disturbance propagation and the distant solar wind are discussed.

Feynman, Joan↗
NASA NTRS1985

Cosmic rays 10Be biennal data and their relationship to aurorae and sunspots

The galactic cosmic ray (C.R.) variations which should give information on three dimensional aspects of the heliospheric magnetic fields and on the solar wind, which modulate their influx into the Solar System were studied. In order to decode the information from the C.R. series it is necessary to know the mechanisms through which the modulation is produced. It it clear that a balance of effects with sources at different heliospheric latitudes results in the modulated C.R. intensity. It is found that the modulation of 10Be in polar ice may be due to at least two main contributions: (1) negative and in phase with the Solar flare activity modulating the cosmic ray flux in Forbush-type decreases, and (2) positive in phase with the appearance of large wind streams situated at both polar coronal holes. It is found that the high heliolatitude activity is related to a stable periodicity of 11.1y whereas the low heliolatitude activity contributes to the wondering of the solar cycles.

Attolini, M. R.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Exploration of Solar Wind Acceleration Region Using Interplanetary Scintillation of Water Vapor Maser Source and Quasars

Single-station observations of interplanetary scintillation UPS) at three microwave frequencies 2, 8, and 22GHz, were carried out between 1989 and 1998 using a large (34-micro farad) radio telescope at the Kashima Space Research Center of the Communications Research Laboratory. The aim of these observations was to explore the near-sun solar wind, which is the key region for the study of the solar wind acceleration mechanism. Strong quasars, 3C279 and 3C273B, were used for the Kashima IPS observations at 2 and 8GHz, and a water-vapor maser source, IRC20431, was used for the IPS observations at 22GHz. Solar wind speeds derived from Kashima IPS data suggest that the solar wind acceleration takes place at radial distances between 10 and 30 solar radii (Rs) from the sun. The properties of the turbulence spectrum (e.g. anisotropy, spectral index, inner scale) inferred from the Kashima data were found to change systematically in the solar wind acceleration region. While the solar wind in the maximum phase appears to be dominated by the slow wind, fast and rarefied winds associated with the coronal holes were found to develop significantly at high latitudes as the solar activity declined. Nevertheless, the Kashima data suggests that the location of the acceleration region is stable throughout the solar cycle.

Tokumaru, Munetoshi↗
NASA NTRS1983

Solar cycle evolution of the solar wind in three dimensions

Measurements of the solar wind speed both in and out of the ecliptic are presented for 1971-82. The speed estimates, which were made with the interplanetary scintillation system at UC San Diego, have been compared to in situ for large, slowly evolving structures, and thus such structures can be studied up to 60 degrees north and south heliographic latitude. Annual average wind speeds are presented versus latitude for an entire solar cycle. Fast wind streams from the poles persisted through declining and low solar activity, but were closed off during four years of high activity. This evolution follows that of the polar coronal holes, as displayed by comparing averaged speed and coronal density over latitude and longitude. The most recent data (1982) show the reestablishment of large tilted polar holes and associated fast streams. Coronal magnetic field data show that the neutral sheet is confined to low latitudes at solar minimum and extends to high latitudes at solar maximum; thus the slow solar wind comes from the same latitude range as that of the neutral sheet.

Rickett, B. J.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Near-Earth Solar Wind Flows and Related Geomagnetic Activity During more than Four Solar Cycles (1963-2011)

In past studies, we classified the near-Earth solar wind into three basic flow types based on inspection of solar wind plasma and magnetic field parameters in the OMNI database and additional data (e.g., geomagnetic indices, energetic particle, and cosmic ray observations). These flow types are: (1) High-speed streams associated with coronal holes at the Sun, (2) Slow, interstream solar wind, and (3) Transient flows originating with coronal mass ejections at the Sun, including interplanetary coronal mass ejections and the associated upstream shocks and post-shock regions. The solar wind classification in these previous studies commenced with observations in 1972. In the present study, as well as updating this classification to the end of 2011, we have extended the classification back to 1963, the beginning of near-Earth solar wind observations, thereby encompassing the complete solar cycles 20 to 23 and the ascending phase of cycle 24. We discuss the cycle-to-cycle variations in near-Earth solar wind structures and l1e related geomagnetic activity over more than four solar cycles, updating some of the results of our earlier studies.

Richardson, Ian G.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Global Network of Slow Solar Wind

The streamer belt region surrounding the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) is generally treated as the primary or sole source of the slow solar wind. Synoptic maps of solar wind speed predicted by the Wang-Sheeley-Arge model during selected periods of solar cycle 23, however, show many areas of slow wind displaced from the streamer belt. These areas commonly have the form of an arc that is connected to the streamer belt at both ends. The arcs mark the boundaries between fields emanating from different coronal holes of the same polarity and thus trace the paths of belts of pseudostreamers, i.e., unipolar streamers that form over double arcades and lack current sheets. The arc pattern is consistent with the predicted topological mapping of the narrow open corridor or singular separator line that must connect the holes and, thus, consistent with the separatrix-web model of the slow solar wind. Near solar maximum, pseudostreamer belts stray far from the HCS-associated streamer belt and, together with it, form a global-wide web of slow wind. Recognition of pseudostreamer belts as prominent sources of slow wind provides a new template for understanding solar wind stream structure, especially near solar maximum.

solar wind↗