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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Greenhouse-gas forced changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and related worldwide sea-level change

Abstract The effect of anthropogenic climate change in the ocean is challenging to project because atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) respond differently to forcing. This study focuses on changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), ocean heat content ( $$\Delta$$ Δ OHC), and the spatial pattern of ocean dynamic sea level ( $$\Delta \zeta$$ Δ ζ ). We analyse experiments following the FAFMIP protocol, in which AOGCMs are forced at the ocean surface with standardised heat, freshwater and momentum flux perturbations, typical of those produced by doubling $$\hbox {CO}_{{2}}$$ CO 2 . Using two new heat-flux-forced experiments, we find that the AMOC weakening is mainly caused by and linearly related to the North Atlantic heat flux perturbation, and further weakened by a positive coupled heat flux feedback. The quantitative relationships are model-dependent, but few models show significant AMOC change due to freshwater or momentum forcing, or to heat flux forcing outside the North Atlantic. AMOC decline causes warming at the South Atlantic-Southern Ocean interface. It does not strongly affect the global-mean vertical distribution of $$\Delta$$ Δ OHC, which is dominated by the Southern Ocean. AMOC decline strongly affects $$\Delta \zeta$$ Δ ζ in the North Atlantic, with smaller effects in the Southern Ocean and North Pacific. The ensemble-mean $$\Delta \zeta$$ Δ ζ and $$\Delta$$ Δ OHC patterns are mostly attributable to the heat added by the flux perturbation, with smaller effects from ocean heat and salinity redistribution. The ensemble spread, on the other hand, is largely due to redistribution, with pronounced disagreement among the AOGCMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

The HydroBio Dataset: a new data resource for evaluating existing and potential hydropower capacity and freshwater biodiversity in the conterminous United States

Hydropower is a critical source of affordable and reliable electricity and energy system stability services in the United States. Opportunities to expand US hydropower production include retrofitting existing non-powered dams to produce power, retrofitting existing hydropower dams to improve efficiency or increase capacity, or constructing new hydropower infrastructure on currently unregulated river reaches. We created the HydroBio Dataset, which summarizes existing and potential hydropower capacity and freshwater biodiversity at the sub-basin scale in the conterminous US to contextualize existing and potential grid contributions with the freshwater ecosystems in which dams are situated. We demonstrate a use-case of this dataset by rescaling and comparing potential non-powered dam nominal capacity to rarity-threat-weighted freshwater species richness for sub-basins where both types of data exist. On average, normalized freshwater biodiversity exceeded normalized potential non-powered dam nominal capacity in these sub-basins. Potential non-powered dam nominal capacity was concentrated in sub-basins in the Upper Mississippi and Ohio hydrologic regions while freshwater biodiversity was concentrated in the South Atlantic-Gulf, Ohio, and Tennessee hydrologic regions. Additionally, non-powered dams and existing hydropower dams are located in sub-basins with similar indices of freshwater biodiversity. The HydroBio Dataset adds an additional ecological dimension of context to our understanding of current and potential future US hydropower capabilities and is a valuable decision support tool for stakeholders tasked with balancing gains in services to the US power grid with the public and environmental benefits of freshwater ecosystems.

Biodiversity↗
DOE OSTI2026

Reservoir Drought Resilience Under Future Warming Scenarios: Regional Disparities Across Heavily Regulated US Basins

Droughts across the U.S. have imposed substantial challenges to the management of water resources. Reservoir drought, one type of hydrological drought, is characterized by abnormally low reservoir storage levels, reflecting combined impacts of natural water shortages and water management practices. We investigate how reservoir drought signatures, particularly onset, severity, duration, recovery and frequency, may shift under rising temperatures, and how these shifts vary by reservoir typology and degree of regulation. By coupling atmosphere-land-river models with reservoir operations at ~12-km resolution, we simulated reservoir storage and characterized reservoir droughts across five heavily regulated U.S. basins. Our findings reveal significant regional and functional disparities in reservoir drought resilience under the scenario of rising temperatures. Reservoirs in the Texas-Gulf region are projected to become more resilient, while systems in the Upper Colorado and South Atlantic-Gulf regions face increased risk due to prolonged drought durations and slower recovery. With respect to primary function, reservoirs used for irrigation and hydropower, particularly those with smaller storage capacity and lower degrees of regulation, are most susceptible to future drought stress. These results are valuable in understanding water availability in highly regulated environments, and the influence of hydrometeorological conditions on storage dynamics. Overall, this study provides the first of its kind benchmark for reservoir droughts at a continental scale to support evolving multi-sectoral drought mitigation efforts. Future research is needed to link reservoir drought conditions to actual supply shortages across competing water uses, while leveraging existing adaptive management strategies and coordinated reservoir operations.

reservoir↗
DOE OSTI2024

Optimizing DOE Opportunities to Research Land–Atmosphere Interactions in the U.S. Southeast (Workshop Report)

The southeastern United States (Southeast), with its complex and varied environments, is an area of tremendous economic, ecological, and societal importance to the country. The region is characterized by heterogeneous landscapes (i.e., geology and soil type) and a long history of human land use coupled with a warm temperature regime and high precipitation. As a result, soil erosion and deposition are pronounced, vegetation recovery is rapid, and human modification is extensive across the region. To better understand land–atmosphere interactions in this important and complex region, research communities supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Biological and Environmental Research (BER) program identified the Southeast as a priority region of interest. In fall 2024, the third Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Mobile Facility (AMF3), one of three mobile monitoring facilities designed to collect atmospheric and climate data from undersampled regions around the world, will begin operations in northwestern Alabama’s Bankhead National Forest (BNF). The AMF3-BNF 5-year deployment, from 2024–2029, will monitor the effects of feedbacks among aerosols, clouds, and precipitation on plant physiology and canopy-scale fluxes. It will also focus on scale aggregation to resolve the role of local forcing on larger-scale processes. To enable broader AMF3 involvement by the science community, the BER Environmental System Science (ESS) program organized the Southeast Land– Atmosphere Research Opportunities (SELARO) workshop in August 2023. The purpose was to identify gaps in scientific understanding of terrestrial processes in the Southeast (defined as states bounded by the Gulf of Mexico to the south, the Atlantic Ocean to east, the Mississippi River to the west, and extending through Tennessee and North Carolina to the north) and explore opportunities to use the AMF3-BNF deployment to coordinate and leverage research efforts across the region. Many parts of the Southeast have experienced repeated anthropogenic forcings. Farming, hunting, burning, and settlement of the region by Indigenous Peoples first shaped the distribution of plant communities, which in turn influenced European colonization patterns. Timber harvesting was common during the expansion of European settlements, and production forestry continues today. Agricultural production was extensive and then waned through the 20th century, creating a period of afforestation following agricultural abandonment. Today, many formerly agricultural landscapes are undergoing rapid urbanization and suburbanization. Overlying these patterns of anthropogenic land use are frequent disturbances from hurricanes, tornadoes, wildfires, drought, flooding, ice storms, and the occasional blizzard. An additional characteristic of the Southeast is its overall landscape complexity. Unlike the western United States, where broad expanses may share similar characteristics, Southeast topography, drainage patterns, vegetation, and development patterns vary widely across relatively small spatial scales (<1 km). This is due to the region’s underlying geology and soil development, species biodiversity patterns, and land ownership and use coupled with strong forces of erosion, weathering, and rapid plant growth in the warm, wet climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The CLoud–Aerosol–Radiation Interaction and Forcing: Year 2017 (CLARIFY-2017) measurement campaign

The representations of clouds, aerosols, and cloud–aerosol–radiation impacts remain some of the largest uncertainties in climate change, limiting our ability to accurately reconstruct past climate and predict future climate. The south-east Atlantic is a region where high atmospheric aerosol loadings and semi-permanent stratocumulus clouds are co-located, providing an optimum region for studying the full range of aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions and their perturbations of the Earth's radiation budget. While satellite measurements have provided some useful insights into aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions over the region, these observations do not have the spatial and temporal resolution, nor the required level of precision to allow for a process-level assessment. Detailed measurements from high spatial and temporal resolution airborne atmospheric measurements in the region are very sparse, limiting their use in assessing the performance of aerosol modelling in numerical weather prediction and climate models. CLARIFY-2017 was a major consortium programme consisting of five principal UK universities with project partners from the UK Met Office and European- and USA-based universities and research centres involved in the complementary ORACLES, LASIC, and AEROCLO-sA projects. The aims of CLARIFY-2017 were fourfold: (1) to improve the representation and reduce uncertainty in model estimates of the direct, semi-direct, and indirect radiative effect of absorbing biomass burning aerosols; (2) to improve our knowledge and representation of the processes determining stratocumulus cloud microphysical and radiative properties and their transition to cumulus regimes; (3) to challenge, validate, and improve satellite retrievals of cloud and aerosol properties and their radiative impacts; (4) to improve the impacts of aerosols in weather and climate numerical models. This paper describes the modelling and measurement strategies central to the CLARIFY-2017 deployment of the FAAM BAe146 instrumented aircraft campaign, summarizes the flight objectives and flight patterns, and highlights some key results from our initial analyses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating seasonal and regional distribution of snowfall in regional climate model simulations in the Arctic

In this study, we investigate how the regional climate model HIRHAM5 reproduces the spatial and temporal distribution of Arctic snowfall when compared to CloudSat satellite observations during the examined period of 2007–2010. For this purpose, both approaches, i.e., the assessments of the surface snowfall rate (observation-to-model) and the radar reflectivity factor profiles (model-to-observation), are carried out considering spatial and temporal sampling differences. The HIRHAM5 model, which is constrained in its synoptic representation by nudging to ERA-Interim, represents the snowfall in the Arctic region well in comparison to CloudSat products. The spatial distribution of the snowfall patterns is similar in both identifying the southeastern coast of Greenland and the North Atlantic corridor as regions gaining more than twice as much snowfall as the Arctic average, defined here for latitudes between 66 and 81°N. Excellent agreement (difference less than 1%) in the Arctic-averaged annual snowfall rate between HIRHAM5 and CloudSat is found, whereas ERA-Interim reanalysis shows an underestimation of 45% and significant deficits in the representation of the snowfall rate distribution. From the spatial analysis, it can be seen that the largest differences in the mean annual snowfall rates are an overestimation near the coastlines of Greenland and other regions with large orographic variations as well as an underestimation in the northern North Atlantic Ocean. To a large extent, the differences can be explained by clutter contamination, blind zone or higher resolution of CloudSat measurements, but clearly HIRHAM5 overestimates the orographic-driven precipitation. The underestimation of HIRHAM5 within the North Atlantic corridor south of Svalbard is likely connected to a poor description of the marine cold air outbreaks which could be identified by separating snowfall into different circulation weather type regimes. By simulating the radar reflectivity factor profiles from HIRHAM5 utilizing the Passive and Active Microwave TRAnsfer (PAMTRA) forward-modeling operator, the contribution of individual hydrometeor types can be assessed. Looking at a latitude band at 72–73°N, snow can be identified as the hydrometeor type dominating radar reflectivity factor values across all seasons. The largest differences between the observed and simulated reflectivity factor values are related to the contribution of cloud ice particles, which is underestimated in the model, most likely due to the small sizes of the particles. The model-to-observation approach offers a promising diagnostic when improving cloud schemes, as illustrated by comparison of different schemes available for HIRHAM5.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Energy Snapshot - Suriname

This is a snapshot of the energy landscape of Suriname, a country on the northeastern Atlantic coast of South America. It is bordered by the Atlantic Ocean to the north, French Guiana to the east, Guyana to the west and Brazil to the south.

44 EE - Strategic Programs, Energy Transition Init↗
DOE OSTI2021

Regional-scale, sector-specific evaluation of global CO2 inversion models using aircraft data from the ACT-America project

We use vertical profiles of airborne measurements of CO2 from frontal cases during the summer 2016 Atmospheric Carbon and Transport – America (ACT-America) campaign to evaluate the skill of a set of ten global CO2 inversion models participating in the Orbiting Carbon Observatory – 2 (OCO-2) Model Intercomparison Project (MIP). Model errors and biases (model minus observation) were categorized by region (Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, and South), frontal sector (warm or cold), and transport model (predominantly Tracer Model 5 (TM5) and Goddard Earth Observing System – Chemistry (GEOS-Chem)). Overall, the inversions reproduce the general structures of the observed vertical profiles and the enhanced / depleted low-level CO2 in warm / cold sectors, but tend to underestimate the magnitude of the sector difference in each region. In the Midwest and South warm sectors, inversion biases were about 1 ppm above 1500 m AGL, though model spread (quantified by interquartile range) was often even smaller; below 1500 m AGL, model biases were negative and about -2 ppm near the surface. For the Midwest and South cold sectors, models had +2-3 ppm biases below 1500 m AGL, but with comparable model spread. Uniquely, in the Mid-Atlantic there was a consistent difference between TM5 and GEOS-Chem mole fractions for both sectors up to 3000 m AGL (TM5 lower by 2 ppm), on the order of the observation-relative biases. In the MidAtlantic TM5 inversions had negative biases in warm sectors, while GEOS-Chem inversions had positive biases in cold sectors. Possible reasons for the regional variability are discussed.

Gaudet, Brian J.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modulations of Atmospheric River Climatology by the Stratospheric Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation

Abstract This study reveals the significant Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO) influences on the seasonal atmospheric river (AR) climatology around the globe. The North Pacific (NP) AR climatology in the boreal winter to early fall seasons in a QBO easterly (QBOE) phase is systematically shifted poleward compared with those in a QBO westerly (QBOW) phase, and such difference peaks in the local late spring season. We also find the similar poleward shift for the AR climatology over the South Pacific (SP) in the austral winter seasons in the QBOE phase. A significant equatorward shift and an overall enhancement of the AR climatology over the SP are observed in the QBOE phase during local spring and summer seasons, respectively. The QBO impacts on the AR climatology over the Atlantic Ocean are less organized. Strong QBO impacts exist in almost all seasons for the North Atlantic AR but only in the austral spring season for the South Atlantic AR. These QBO modulations of the AR climatology over the ocean basins also change the season‐mean AR frequencies around coastal regions, suggesting significant QBO impacts on the local land‐falling AR events. The QBO modulations of the seasonal background mean states and the MJO‐teleconnections are two potential mechanisms mostly over the north hemisphere. The QBOE modulation of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO)‐teleconnection over the northern hemisphere is asymmetric between the MJO convection over the Indian Ocean and that over the Pacific Ocean, which is the key to explain the QBO influences on the AR activity on the seasonal timescale.

Huang, Kai [U.S. National Science Foundation Natio↗
DOE OSTI2022

Illuminating otoliths: New insights for life history of Balistes triggerfishes

Our understanding of fish life-history strategies is informed by key biological processes, such as growth, survival/mortality, recruitment and sexual maturation, used to characterize fish stocks (populations). Characterizing the life-history traits of fish populations requires the application of accurate age estimation for managed species. Grey triggerfish Balistes capriscus and queen triggerfish Balistes vetula are important reef-associated species for commercial and recreational fisheries in the Atlantic Ocean. Both species exhibit a unique reproductive strategy for large-bodied fisheries-targeted reef fishes in that they are nesting benthic spawners and invest substantial energy in defence and care of their benthic nests and fertilized eggs. Until recently, our understanding of the life-history strategies of triggerfishes assumed the main method used to obtain age estimates, increments counted from thin sections of the first dorsal spine, provided an accurate characterization of population age-based parameters. However, results from bomb radiocarbon validation studies on the two Balistes species demonstrated that spines do not provide accurate ages, but sagittal otoliths do. The main goal of the current study was to provide an updated understanding for triggerfish life-history strategies by using otolith-based age estimates to characterize population age structure and growth for grey triggerfish and queen triggerfish from waters of the south-eastern U.S. Atlantic. The current study is the first to report on sex-specific age and growth information for grey triggerfish using the Δ 14 C-validated otolith-based age estimation method and the results indicate that the previous characterization of Balistes species as exhibiting moderately rapid growth and as relatively short-lived, based on spine-derived age estimates, are flawed. Otolith-based ages indicated that grey triggerfish and queen triggerfish are moderately slow-growing and long-lived species, attaining maximum ages of 21 and 40 years, respectively. Management efforts for triggerfishes should evaluate these new insights and incorporate the results of otolith-based age estimation into future population monitoring efforts.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Atmospheric Carbon and Transport – America (ACT-America) Data Sets: Description, Management, and Delivery

The ACT-America project is a NASA Earth Venture Suborbital-2 mission designed to study the transport and fluxes of greenhouse gases. The open and freely available ACT-America data sets provide airborne in situ measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide, methane, trace gases, aerosols, clouds, and meteorological properties, airborne remote sensing measurements of aerosol backscatter, atmospheric boundary layer height and columnar content of atmospheric carbon dioxide, tower-based measurements, and modeled atmospheric mole fractions and regional carbon fluxes of greenhouse gases over the Central and Eastern United States. In this study, we conducted 121 research flights during five campaigns in four seasons during 2016–2019 over three regions of the US (Mid-Atlantic, Midwest and South) using two NASA research aircraft (B-200 and C-130). We performed three flight patterns (fair weather, frontal crossings, and OCO-2 underflights) and collected more than 1,140 h of airborne measurements via level-leg flights in the atmospheric boundary layer, lower, and upper free troposphere and vertical profiles spanning these altitudes. We also merged various airborne in situ measurements onto a common standard sampling interval, which brings coherence to the data, creates geolocated data products, and makes it much easier for the users to perform holistic analysis of the ACT-America data products. Here, we report on detailed information of data sets collected, the workflow for data sets including storage and processing of the quality controlled and quality assured harmonized observations, and their archival and formatting for users. Finally, we provide some important information on the dissemination of data products including metadata and highlights of applications of ACT-America data sets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

The DOE E3SM version 2.1: overview and assessment of the impacts of parameterized ocean submesoscales

The U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 2.1 builds on E3SMv2 with several changes, with the most notable being the addition of the Fox-Kemper et al. (2011) mixed-layer eddy parameterization. This parameterization captures the effect of finite-amplitude, mixed-layer eddies as an overturning streamfunction and has the primary function of restratification. Herein, we outline the changes to the mean climate state of E3SM that were introduced by the addition of this parameterization. Overall, the presence of the submesoscale parameterization improves the fidelity of the v2.1 simulation by reducing the ocean surface biases in the North Atlantic present in v2, as illustrated by changes in the climatological sea surface temperature and salinity and the Arctic sea-ice extent. Other impacts include a slight shoaling of the mixed-layer depths in the North Atlantic and a small improvement in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). We note that the expected shoaling due to the parameterization is regionally dependent in our coupled configuration. In addition, we investigate why the parameterization and its impacts on mixed-layer depth have little impact on the simulated AMOC: despite increased dense-water formation in the Norwegian Sea, only a small fraction of the water formed makes its way south into the North Atlantic basin. Version 2.1 also exhibits small improvements in the atmospheric climatology, with smaller biases in many notable quantities and modes of variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Atmospheric Transport of North African Dust-Bearing Supermicron Freshwater Diatoms to South America: Implications for Iron Transport to the Equatorial North Atlantic Ocean

The equatorial North Atlantic Ocean (NAO) is a nutrient-limited ecosystem that relies on the deposition of long-range transported iron (Fe)-containing aerosols to stimulate primary productivity. Using microscopy, we characterized supermicron and supercoarse mode African aerosols transported to the western NAO in boreal winter/spring. In this work, we detected three particle types including African dust, primary biological aerosol particles, and freshwater diatoms (FDs). FDs contained 4% Fe by weight due to surficial dust inclusions that may be susceptible to chemical processing and dissolution. FDs were typically larger than dust particles and comprised 38% of particles between 10 and 18 μm in diameter. The low density, high surface-area-to-volume ratio, and large aspect ratios of FD particles suggest a mechanism by which they can be carried great distances aloft. These same properties likely increase the residence time of FDs in surface waters thereby increasing the time for Fe dissolution and their potential impact on marine biogeochemical cycles.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

An ecological niche model to predict the geographic distribution of Haemagogus janthinomys, Dyar, 1921 a yellow fever and Mayaro virus vector, in South America

Yellow fever virus (YFV) has a long history of impacting human health in South America. Mayaro virus (MAYV) is an emerging arbovirus of public health concern in the Neotropics and its full impact is yet unknown. Both YFV and MAYV are primarily maintained via a sylvatic transmission cycle but can be opportunistically transmitted to humans by the bites of infected forest dwelling Haemagogus janthinomys Dyar, 1921. To better understand the potential risk of YFV and MAYV transmission to humans, a more detailed understanding of this vector species’ distribution is critical. This study compiled a comprehensive database of 177 unique Hg . janthinomys collection sites retrieved from the published literature, digitized museum specimens and publicly accessible mosquito surveillance data. Covariate analysis was performed to optimize a selection of environmental (topographic and bioclimatic) variables associated with predicting habitat suitability, and species distributions modelled across South America using a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) approach. Our results indicate that suitable habitat for Hg . janthinomys can be found across forested regions of South America including the Atlantic forests and interior Amazon.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Molecular phylogenetic reassessment of eastern Atlantic Callinectes (Brachyura, Portunidae)

Abstract Several species from the genusCallinectesare economically important, yet the number of species and their geographic distributions remain unclear. Recently, one of the American species,Callinectes larvatus, was synonymized with one of the African species,C. marginatus, makingC. marginatusthe only species of the genus regarded to be amphi-Atlantic in distribution. However, there was no formal taxonomic study to support this taxonomic change, which was in contradiction to earlier studies that had provided morphological characters to support the taxonomic separation of the eastern Atlantic species from those of western Atlantic distribution.Callinectes maracaiboensishas also been questionably resurrected. Here we present a molecular based analysis for all species ofCallinectes, using the two common mitochondrial genes 16S and 12S. Our molecular data support the presence of three eastern Atlantic, three eastern Pacific, and nine western Atlantic species. Historically, it appears that the separation of Africa and South America with the opening of the Atlantic basin gave rise to sister species distributed on opposite sides of the Atlantic Ocean. In a second isolation event, the emergence of the Panamanian isthmus resulted in pairs of geminate species distributed in eastern Pacific and western Atlantic waters.

Marine & Freshwater Biology↗
DOE OSTI2020

Subseasonal Variability of Elevated Dust Concentrations Over South Florida

Dust mass concentrations have been measured daily at Miami, Florida, in the summer months, and biweekly throughout the remaining months, since 1974. The 43-year record of dust mass concentrations indicate large daily, seasonal, and interannual variations, with most of the dust arriving within 5–8 episodes each summer. On average, dust arrives to Miami, Florida, 10 days after emission from North Africa, with measured concentrations depending on characteristics of the lower free-tropospheric winds due to the vast travel distance. Daily dust mass concentrations from July and August, the months that contribute the most to the annual mean, are used to characterize the synoptic conditions most favorable for dust transport. Two key regions are linked with the highest daily dust mass concentrations above Miami: (i) easterly winds, averaged over 850–500 mb, over the Tropical West Atlantic [15–25°N, 45–80°W], and (ii) southerly winds, similarly averaged, over the Florida Peninsula [20–30°N,75–80°W]. Winds within these two regions are enhanced when the North Atlantic subtropical high is displaced south and zonally elongated, relocating the western edge over Florida. A dust-transport-efficiency index, based on the maximum potential for dust to arrive above Miami with limited loss to deposition or mixing, identifies high-dust loading cases on the subseasonal scale. Monthly dust-transport-efficiency values agree well with the monthly dust trends over the 43-year time span. While seasonal dust loadings have been decreasing over Florida in the past decade, the transport efficiency has been increasing, possibly due to trends in the North Atlantic subtropical high.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Role of Atmospheric Noise in Decadal SST Variability

Abstract A substantial role for atmospheric noise in simulations of decadal internal variability of SST is demonstrated by a comparison of a multicentury climate model control and a corresponding interactive ensemble (IE) simulation. The IE is designed to reduce atmospheric noise in the heat flux, wind stress, and freshwater flux at the air–sea interface. This comparison suggests that nearly all SST variability on decadal time scales is forced by internal atmospheric variability. The results are examined to determine the relative roles of atmospheric surface heat flux noise and ocean dynamics in the decadal volume-averaged heat budget of the upper ocean. The regional heat budgets in two regions, the South Pacific and the midlatitude North Atlantic, show the net atmospheric surface heat flux to be approximately in equilibrium with the ocean dynamics forcing. The IE and control results are used in the equilibrium heat budget approximation to infer the atmospheric heat flux response to SST, as well as the time series of the control atmospheric noise surface heat flux and ocean dynamics forcings for several regions. The South Pacific region SST is found to be primarily forced by the atmospheric noise surface heat flux and the North Atlantic region SST is forced by the ocean dynamics. Similar strengths for the atmospheric heat flux noise and ocean dynamics forcing, with an interdecadal atmospheric heat flux noise time scale and a centennial ocean dynamics time scale, are found for an Atlantic multidecadal variability region SST.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2022

Trends in Global Tropical Cyclone Activity: 1990–2021

Abstract This study investigates global tropical cyclone (TC) activity trends from 1990 to 2021, a period marked by largely consistent observational platforms. Several global TC metrics have decreased during this period, with significant decreases in hurricane numbers and Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). Most of this decrease has been driven by significant downward trends in the western North Pacific. Globally, short‐lived named storms, 24‐hr intensification events of ≥50 kt day −1 , and TC‐related damage have increased significantly. The increase in short‐lived named storms is likely due to technological improvements, while rapidly intensifying TC increases may be fueled by higher potential intensity. Damage increases are largely due to increased coastal assets. The significant decrease in hurricane numbers and global ACE are likely due to the trend toward a more La Niña‐like base state from 1990 to 2021, favoring North Atlantic TC activity and suppressing North and South Pacific TC activity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗