Antarctic stratospheric warmings during 1963 revealed by Tiros 7, 15-micron data Final report
Tiros 7 observations of Antarctic stratospheric warming in 1963
Belmont, A. D.↗
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Analysis of data from spacecraft (stratospheric warmings)
Investigations involved a search through existing literature and data to obtain case histories for the six or more stratospheric warmings that occurred in April - May 1969, June - July 1969, August 1969, December 1969 - January 1970, December 1970 - January 1971, and January 1973 - February 1973. For each of these warmings the following steps have been taken in preparation for analysis: (1) defining the nature of the problem; (2) literature search of stratwarmings and solar-terrestrial phenomens; and (3) file of data sources, especially stratospheric temperatures (radiances) and geophysical indices.
Source record↗
Numerical simulation of sudden stratospheric warmings
The paper presents a mechanistic, quasi-geostrophic, semi-spectral model with a self-consistent calculation of the mean zonal flow fields used to numerically simulate sudden stratospheric warmings generated by a single zonal harmonic (m) planetary wave. The development of a warming depends on the strength of the westerly winds in the lower stratosphere, and the growth rate of a m=2 warming is accelerated during the westerly zonal wind phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation. An m=1 warming is characterized by oscillation of wave amplitude and mean flow from resonantly trapped, westward, propagating planetary waves moving in and out of phase with the tropospherically forced stationary planetary wave. An m=2 critical level develops in the equatorial region and advances poleward, and its warming is characterized by a sudden intensification after an initially slow growth in contrast to slowly developing m=1 warmings.
Schoeberl, M. R.↗
Energetics of a sudden stratospheric warming simulated with a three-dimensional, spectral, quasi-geostrophic model
The energetics of a three dimensional, quasi-geostrophic simulation of a sudden stratospheric warming which developed spontaneously during an annual cycle simulation are described. Daily values of the stratospheric temperatures, zonal winds, heating rates, energies, and energy conversions are discussed and compared with those for observed warmings. It is shown that, like observed warmings, the simulated warming was preceded by an increased vertical flux of eddy kinetic energy from the troposphere and the polar heating resulted because of the strong convergence of the horizontal, eddy heat flux which was only partially balanced by adiabatic and diabatic cooling. There is a significant similarity between the energetics of the simulated and observed warmings. In addition, the warming was spontaneous and the model did not develop a major warming in each winter of the simulation. These facts suggest that this model may be useful for studying not only the warming process but also the conditions that favor its development.
Haggard, K. V.↗
Antarctic stratospheric warmings during 1963 revealed by 15-mu Tiros VII data.
Tiros 7 15-micron radiation data for Southern Hemisphere stratospheric warmings /winter 1963/
Belmont, A. D.↗
Stratospheric warming observed by Nimbus 4
Nimbus 4 satellite selective chopper radiometer data on IR radiation emitted by carbon dioxide, considering stratospheric warming
Barnett, J. J.↗
A comparison of SAGE I data during the stratospheric warming of February-March, 1979
The fine scale vertical structure of SAGE I ozone and aerosol data during a stratospheric warming is investigated using meteorological and SBUV ozone data. By stratifying the ozone and aerosol data for a limited time period, a comparison of the structure of profiles becomes possible under different meteorological conditions. For example, the cold air region shows more laminated structures than the other regions. In addition, vertical motions calculated at the same locations as the SAGE profiles show that they are consistent with variances found in the ozone and aerosol data.
Nagatani, R. M.↗
Transport of atmospheric tracers by planetary waves during a winter stratospheric warming event - A three-dimensional model simulation
In a simple three-dimensional primitive equation model, a wave number 1 major stratospheric warming is simulated. With the aid of two idealized tracers it is shown that the transport during a major warming event is characterized by a small, well-organized tongue of subtropical air flowing around the displaced winter vortex into the polar cap and by a wide area with strong quasi-horizontal mixing (surf zone). The description of these dynamical processes requires a full three-dimensional space resolution.
Kouker, W.↗
Behavior of zonal mean aerosol extinction ratio and its relationship with zonal mean temperature during the winter 1978-1979 stratospheric warming
The behavior of the zonal mean aerosol extinction ratio in the lower stratosphere near 75 deg N and its relationship with the zonal mean temperature during the January-February 1979 stratospheric sudden warming have been investigated based on the satellite sensor SAM II (Stratospheric Aerosol Measurement) and auxiliary meteorological measurements. The results indicate that distinct changes in the zonal mean aerosol extinction ratio occurred during this stratospheric sudden warming. It is also found that horizontal eddy transport due to planetary waves may have played a significant role in determining the distribution of the zonal mean aerosol extinction ratio.
Wang, P.-H.↗
Simulations of stratospheric warmings in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres
Simulations of stratospheric final warmings made with two primitive-equation models of the stratosphere and mesosphere are presented. The principal difference between the models is the choice of vertical coordinate; pressure is used in one, and potential temperature in the other. The Southern Hemisphere final warming of 1987 and the Northern Hemisphere final warming of 1985 are simulated. The general characteristics of the simulations are examined by comparing simulated planetary wave events with observations. The formation of baroclinic zones in the simulations is investigated. The zones had vertical temperature gradients of up to 10 K/km.
Manney, Gloria L.↗
Sudden stratospheric warmings forced by mountains
A global, quasigeostrophic model of planetary wave interaction with the mean zonal flow has been used to simulate sudden stratospheric warmings forced by mean tropospheric zonal winds interacting with orography. Planetary waves m = 1 and 2 are simultaneously computed and interact with each other only through the mean zonal flow. An increase in the jet stream maximum from 36 to 48 m/sec is sufficient to initiate repeated major warmings with an approximate 80 day cycle. These results are in agreement with the observed anticorrelation of the annual variation of the winter monthly averaged jet stream strength and polar night jet strength.
Schoeberl, M. R.↗
The Stratospheric Warming of 2018 in Context of the Earth System
The major stratospheric sudden warming in February 2018 occurred in unison with changes throughout the troposphere in the northern hemisphere. Changes in large-scale dynamics and regional weather patterns are described in this study, along with features in major features of the Earth system, such as sea ice. The focus is on analyses using the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) analyses, weather prediction, and seasonal forecasts. Specific topics to discuss include: - The morphology of the sudden warming, including planetary waves in the troposphere and stratosphere.- Relationships with weather over North America. - Warming over the Arctic and anomalous sea-ice distributions. - Predictability on the one-to-four week timescales. The predictions will be based on routine products generated using the GEOS systems, as well as targeted experiments that focus on the roles of different mechanisms (such as ice-atmosphere interactions).
planetary waves↗
Satellite Reentry Predictions During Sudden Stratospheric Warmings
Prediction of uncontrolled satellite reentry time and trajectory are essential to avoid damages to human being and properties over land. Reentry time and trajectory are largely controlled by aerodynamic drag and mass neutral density below 200 km. In this paper, using a numerical model of the whole atmosphere, WACCM‐X, and a Precision Orbital Determination software, we demonstrate the major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in January 2009, during the deep solar minimum of 2009, may cause 0.2–0.3 day of variation in reentry time. The SSW can alter the mass density and composition mixing ratio in the lower thermosphere below 200 km through changed wave forcing and general circulation in the lower thermosphere. This is comparable to the effect of a 2‐SFU (Solar Flux Unit) solar radiance variation on the neutral density. 0.1 day of reentry time uncertainty corresponds to a global shift in impact location, that is, thousands of kilometers distance. For comparison, a major SSW during solar maximum contributes little to reentry time variation, which is predominantly controlled by the solar and geomagnetic forcing. We suggest a few proxies such as O/N 2 in the lower thermosphere or mean meridional wind to account for the lower atmosphere impacts in an operational model. This needs to be investigated in rigorous future work.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
GOLD Synoptic Observations of Quasi-6-Day Wave Modulations of Post-Sunset Equatorial Ionization Anomaly During the September 2019 Antarctic Sudden Stratospheric Warming
Using observations from the Global-scale Observations of the Limb and Disk (GOLD) mission, we investigate post-sunset ionospheric responses to the September 2019 Antarctic sudden stratospheric warming –first ever from a synoptic perspective. Observations reveal a prevalent quasi-6-day periodicity in the equatorial ionization anomaly region over South America and the Atlantic, coincident with enhanced quasi-6-day wave (Q6DW) activity in the mesosphere (Liu et al., 2021, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JA028909). The atmosphere-ionosphere coupling via large-scale waves is rarely studied over the ocean due to the lack of observations. More importantly, further analyses suggest that multiple pathways are involved in transmitting the quasi-6-day periodicity from the middle atmosphere into the post-sunset F-region ionosphere, including modulation of F-region field aligned winds and pre-reversal enhancements by the tides and or Q6DW. A remarkable depletion in electron density, attributable to the overall change in thermosphere composition driven by the dissipative tides and or Q6DWs, is also seen during the period of enhanced Q6DW activity.
atmosphere-ionosphere coupling↗
Stratospheric warmings diagnosed using the transformed Eulerian-mean equations and the effect of the mean state on wave propagation
Terms for the transformed Eulerian equations are calculated in order to characterize the phenomenom of sudden stratospheric warming. The transformed diagnostics are applied to data for warmings during Dec. and Jan. 1976-1977, as well as cross sections for the directions of the Eiliassen-Palm (EP) fluxes and residual mean meridional circulations. The convergence of the EP flux was determined to provide a strong approximation to the total effect of waves in forcing the zonal mean flow. The EP fluxes change from an upward and equatorward direction to an upward and poleward direction during the warmings, and indications are reported that the effect is due to a feedback on wave propagation of an evolving mean flow. Ray paths in the meridional plane are computed for different mean wind fields to determine the direction of wave propagation according to linear theory based on the WKB approximation.
Oneill, A.↗
An investigation of resonant waves in a numerical model of an observed sudden stratospheric warming
A global quasi-linear time-dependent model that is able to represent the interaction of a single planetary Rossby wave with the zonal flow is used to investigate several questions concerning the role of resonance in the major stratospheric warming of February 1979. Special attention is given to the examination of the degree of dependence of the warming development on the phase speed of the wave and the initial mean flow. The results indicate that the preconditioning occurred early in the month, just after the minor sudden warming around February 5-7, and that a fairly broad range of eastward traveling phase speeds was capable of generating a warming. The model sensitivity tests indicate that the warming simulation has a weak dependence on the frequency of wave forcing and on the day used for initializing the basic state.
Smith, Anne K.↗
Global variations of zonal mean ozone during stratospheric warming events
Eight years of Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) ozone data are examined to study zonal mean variations associated with stratospheric planetary wave (warming) events. These fluctuations are found to be nearly global in extent, with relatively large variations in the tropics, and coherent signatures reaching up to 50 deg in the opposite (summer) hemisphere. These ozone variations are a manifestation of the global circulation cells associated with stratospheric warming events; the ozone responds dynamically in the lower stratosphere to transport, and photochemically in the upper stratosphere to the circulation-induced temperature changes. The observed ozone variations in the tropics are of particular interest because transport is dominated by zonal-mean vertical motions (eddy flux divergences and mean meridional transports are negligible), and hence, substantial simplifications to the governing equations occur. The response of the atmosphere to these impulsive circulation changes provides a situation for robust estimates of the ozone-temperature sensitivity in the upper stratosphere.
Randel, William J.↗
Ozone during sudden stratospheric warming: A three-dimensional simulation
Sudden warmings which are currently observed in the winter stratosphere are believed to be due to the upward propagation of planetary waves originating in the troposphere. Major warmings are characterized by local increases of the temperature in a deep layer beyond the stratopause, with values of the order of 50 K at 10 mbar appearing over a short period of time and leading to significant changes in the rate constant of several chemical reactions. During such events, the dynamical fields in the stratosphere are completely altered, so that dramatic changes in the transport of trace constituents are expected. Preliminary results of a 3-D model simulation of the ozone behavior during winter in connection with the appearance of stratospheric warmings are reported. The middle stratosphere (12 mbar or approximately 32 km) where the chemical lifetime of odd oxygen is quite long, and consequently, transport plays a major role is emphasized.
Rose, K.↗