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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Streaming Large-Scale Microscopy Data to a Supercomputing Facility

Data management is a critical component of modern experimental workflows. As data generation rates increase, transferring data from acquisition servers to processing servers via conventional file-based methods is becoming increasingly impractical. The 4D Camera at the National Center for Electron Microscopy generates data at a nominal rate of 480 Gbit s -1 (87,000 frames s -1 ⁠), producing a 700 GB dataset in 15 s. To address the challenges associated with storing and processing such quantities of data, we developed a streaming workflow that utilizes a high-speed network to connect the 4D Camera’s data acquisition system to supercomputing nodes at the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center, bypassing intermediate file storage entirely. In this work, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our streaming pipeline in a production setting through an hour-long experiment that generated over 10 TB of raw data, yielding high-quality datasets suitable for advanced analyses. Additionally, we compare the efficacy of this streaming workflow against the conventional file-transfer workflow by conducting a postmortem analysis on historical data from experiments performed by real users. Our findings show that the streaming workflow significantly improves data turnaround time, enables real-time decision-making, and minimizes the potential for human error by eliminating manual user interactions.

4D-STEM↗
DOE OSTI2025

Effects of Dark Matter Self-interactions on Sagittarius and its Stream

This work explores how assumptions regarding the particle-physics nature of dark matter can alter the evolution of the Sagittarius (Sgr) dwarf spheroidal galaxy and its expansive stellar stream. We run a large suite of N-body simulations to model the infall of a spherically symmetric Sgr-like dwarf, exploring how the presence of dark matter self-interactions impacts its evolution. For a scattering cross section of σ/m χ = 30 cm 2 g −1 (at orbital velocity scales), these interactions result in significantly less stellar mass and little to no dark matter bound to the progenitor at the present day. To isolate the cause of this mass loss, we introduce a novel technique for controlling which pairs of dark matter simulation particles can interact. This enables us to identify ram-pressure evaporation—the scattering of satellite and host dark matter particles—as the primary source of the enhanced mass loss. The rapid disintegration of the Sgr progenitor when self-interactions are allowed alters some key properties of the resulting stellar stream, most dramatically suppressing the presence of a “spur” on the apocenter of the trailing stream arm that correlates with the mass of the satellite at last pericenter. We demonstrate how the effects on the Sgr system scale with the particular choice of self-interaction cross section, which affects the degree of ram-pressure evaporation. These findings generalize beyond the Sgr system, underscoring that dwarf stellar streams and dwarf galaxies with close passages may serve as sensitive probes for dark matter self-interactions.

Milky Way dark matter halo↗
DOE OSTI2026

Robust Measurement of Stellar Streams around the Milky Way: Correcting Spatially Variable Observational Selection Effects in Optical Imaging Surveys

Observations of density variations in stellar streams are a promising probe of low-mass dark matter substructure in the Milky Way. However, survey systematics such as variations in seeing and sky brightness can also induce artificial fluctuations in the observed densities of known stellar streams. These variations arise because survey conditions affect both object detection and star–galaxy misclassification rates. To mitigate these effects, we use Balrog synthetic source injections in the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Y3 data to calculate detection rate variations and classification rates as functions of survey properties. We show that these rates are nearly separable with respect to survey properties and can be estimated with sufficient statistics from the synthetic catalogs. Applying these corrections reduces the standard deviation of relative detection rates across the DES footprint by a factor of 5, and our corrections significantly change the inferred linear density of the Phoenix stream when including faint objects. Additionally, for artificial streams with DES-like survey properties we are able to recover density power spectra with reduced bias. We also find that uncorrected power-spectrum results for Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST)-like data can be around 5 times more biased, highlighting the need for such corrections in future ground-based surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Reconstructing the Stripping History of the Sagittarius Stream with Neural Networks

The Sagittarius (Sgr) Stream is produced by the ongoing disruption of the Sgr dwarf spheroidal (dSph) galaxy and is thought to contain multiple wraps that were stripped during different pericentric passages. In this study, we introduce a neural-network–based method trained on N-body simulations to infer the stripping time of Sgr Stream stars directly from their phase-space coordinates. We combine spectroscopic data from SEGUE, APOGEE DR17, and LAMOST DR7 low-resolution spectroscopic (LRS) survey with Gaia EDR3 astrometry and distance estimates from the latest StarHorse catalog to identify high-quality Sgr Stream members. Applying our method to these stars, we measure a clear metallicity gradient with stripping time, well described by a linear relation with slope ∼0.3 dex Gyr −1 . We further predict the stripping times of globular clusters previously suggested to originate from the Sgr dSph. M 54, Terzan 7, Terzan 8, and Arp 2 exhibit stripping times consistent with being currently bound to the Sgr remnant. Pal 12, Whiting 1, and NGC 2419 are inferred to have been stripped 0.9 ± 0.1, 1.1 ± 0.2, and 2.1 ± 0.2 Gyr ago, respectively. For NGC 4147 and NGC 5634, whose membership in the Sgr system remains uncertain, our analysis suggests stripping times of 1.1 ± 0.4 and 1.1 ± 0.1 Gyr, respectively, if they are ultimately confirmed as genuine Sgr members. These results demonstrate that data-driven models of dynamical stripping histories offer a promising approach for reconstructing the formation and chemical evolution of the Sgr Stream.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Growth of organized flow coherent motions within a single-stream shear layer: 4D-PTV measurements

Abstract This study investigates the evolution of a single-stream shear layer (SSSL) originating from a wall boundary layer past a backward-facing step. Utilizing a time-resolved 3D-Particle Tracking Velocimetry (4D-PTV) technique, we track the trajectories of fluorescent particles to gain insight into the flow characteristics of the SSSL. A compact water tunnel facility ( $$\textrm{Re}_\tau =1\,240$$ Re τ = 1 240 ) is fabricated to obtain an SSSL with a perpendicular slow entrainment stream past the separation edge. A hybrid interpolation approach that combines ensemble binning and Gaussian weighting is implemented to derive minimally filtered mean and instantaneous lower- and higher-order flow field parameters. Spanwise-dominant coherent motion accompanied by finer flow scales is observed to grow due to flow entrainment through “nibbling” actions of small-scale vortices, “engulfing” by large-scale vortices, and vortex pairing events. Furthermore, the non-zero-speed stream edge grows relatively faster than the zero-speed stream edge, showing a strong asymmetry in mixing composition across a mixing layer. The SSSL reaches self-similarity at a streamwise distance of $$\approx 55\,\theta _{0}$$ ≈ 55 θ 0 , where $$\theta _0$$ θ 0 is the initial momentum thickness from the separation edge, i.e., considerably shorter than reported in previous studies. A literature comparison of growth rate parameters raises intriguing questions regarding a potential inclusive growth scaling unifying the free shear layers. A turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) budget analysis reveals a negative production region immediately downstream of the separation edge attributed to a large positive streamwise gradient of streamwise velocity. In the self-similar region, the phase-averaged flow mapping demonstrates a larger concentration of turbulence production rate around the outer edges of spanwise vortices, specifically at the intersection of braids and vortices. Furthermore, a spatial separation exists in the regions of peak production and dissipation rates within the vortex core region favoring dissipation. The braids exhibit a larger concentration of turbulence diffusion rates, indicating their function as a conduit for exchanging turbulence between neighboring coherent motions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hydrologic connectivity and dynamics of solute transport in a mountain stream: Insights from a long-term tracer test and multiscale transport modeling informed by machine learning

The movement of solutes in a watershed is a complex process with multiple interactions and feedbacks across spatial and temporal scales. Modeling the dynamics of solute transport along diverse hydrologic pathways within watersheds – from hillslopes to stream channels and in and out of the hyporheic zones – is challenging but critically important, as these processes integrate and contribute to the biogeochemical functioning of the river corridor up to the river network scale. Here we use results from a long-term network-scale tracer test at the H.J. Andrews experimental forest in western Cascade Mountains, Oregon, USA to inform a multiscale framework for transport in stream corridors. The framework uses a Lagrangian-based subgrid model to represent the effects of hyporheic exchange flow and advective transport at stream network scales. The spatially and temporally resolved stream discharge needed for the transport model is imputed across the river system by an entity-aware long short-term memory network. Modeled concentrations show good agreements with the observations and exhibit power scaling laws indicative of a very wide range of timescales over which hyporheic exchange flow occurs. Our results demonstrate a data-informed modeling framework that links dynamical processes occurring at small scales to a network context to help understand how changes at reach scale cascade into network-scale effects, providing a useful tool for sustainable river basin management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

The effect on soot and its gas precursors of doping ethylene with 2,2,4,6,6-pentamethyl-heptane in the nitrogen-fuel stream of a laminar non-premixed Planar Mixing Layer Flame (PMLF)

Synthetic Aviation Turbine Fuels (SATFs) are promising for reducing soot emissions from the aviation sector and diversifying Jet Fuel (JF) sources. Accurately predicting the combustion and emissions behavior of SATFs (and other JFs) necessitates robust experimental databases to elucidate the chemistry of long-chain iso-paraffins, which can compose up to two-thirds of SATF blends and whose behavior is considered to be well-represented by that of iso-dodecane isomers. Here, this study characterizes two laminar non-premixed Planar Mixing Layer Flames (PMLFs) with mild soot loads fueled by nitrogen-diluted ethylene, pure and doped with 2,2,4,6,6-pentamethyl-heptane, respectively. The two PMLFs have the same stoichiometric mixture fraction and total hydrocarbon mole fraction in the fuel stream (X F,F =X C2H4,F +X C12H26,F = 0.260), resulting in nearly the same maximum temperature (T max ≈1800 K) and simple identification of the effects of doping. Importantly, any horizontal PMLF cross-section has a self-similar structure that can be modeled as an equivalent One-Dimensional Counterflow Flame (1D-CF) with vanishingly small strain rate (a). The cross-section at a Height Above the Burner (HAB) of 50 mm is characterized in terms of C 0 -C 18 gas species using capillary sampling followed by GC-MS analyses. Laser-Induced Emission Spectroscopy (LIES) quantifies the soot volume fraction (ƒ v ) profiles at HAB=25 and 50 mm where Elastic Laser Light Scattering (E-LLS) is performed to determine the a of the equivalent 1D-CFs and the profile of the E-LLS equivalent diameter ( d 6,3 ) of soot. The substitution of 1500 ppm of ethylene with 2,2,4,6,6-pentamethyl-heptane causes an increase of ≈1.5 in the concentrations of several polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and fv. Concurrently, the measured d 6,3 doubles in the oxidizer stream, yet remains the same in the fuel stream, at HAB=50 mm. Instead, at HAB= 25 mm, the iso-dodecane doping does not affect the d 6,3 profile in either stream. The experimental results partially validate the chemical reactions and soot formation kinetic model developed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and provide directions to further improve its predictions.

Iso-dodecane (2,2,4,6,6-Pentamethyl-Heptane)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Groundwater flowpath characteristics drive variability in per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) loading across a stream-wetland system

Groundwater dependent ecosystems in areas with industrial and military land use are at risk of direct exposure to a wide range of contaminants, including PFAS chemicals. Glaciated terrain often has mixed high and low permeability sediments coupled with groundwater flow-through lake features. These hydrogeologic attributes create highly complex ‘source to seep’ dynamics that make spatiotemporal contaminant transport patterns difficult to predict. We investigated one such system in detail using a suite of heat-tracing and chemical methods. Numerous (n=57) preferential groundwater discharge zones (vertical flux rates ranging 0.2 to 3.2 m/d) were identified across the upper Quashnet River stream-wetland system in Mashpee, MA, USA, adjacent to an Air Force Base with several known PFAS source areas. Surface-water and groundwater samples were collected and analyzed (n=145) for precursors and terminal PFAS compounds between March and September 2022. Samples were collected at identified seeps along the Quashnet River (n=59), from wells upgradient from the stream-wetland system (n= 44), from contributing flow-through kettle lakes (n=8), and at multiple locations along the Quashnet River (n=34). Samples from seeps and wells had measured PFAS concentrations ranging from non-detect to approximate 3,500 ng/L (mean= 1,650 ng/L), and a range of deuterium excess values (3.2 to 15.9 per mil) indicative of varying degrees of groundwater-lake interaction prior to emergence at the discharge zones. Groundwater-lake interaction along flowpaths that sourced the sampled seeps was farther supported by significant correlations (p < 0.01) between deuterium excess and %PFAS precursors, and between %PFAS precursors and multiple terminal PFAS compounds (e.g., PFPeS, PFBS, PFHxS). However, some sampled seeps contributing groundwater to the stream-wetland system had much higher total PFAS concentrations (>1000 ng/L) than the upgradient kettle lakes, despite showing lake (evaporative) isotopic signatures, indicating the potential for groundwater flowpath convergence at wetland discharge zones and the influence of lakebed PFAS precursor reactions. PFAS compounds and water isotopic composition at sampled multilevel groundwater wells, rivers, lakes, and seeps suggest that a complex mixture of source groundwater and flowpath characteristics are responsible for diverse observed PFAS mixtures at preferential discharge zones across the stream-wetland system. Further, total PFAS loading patterns to the Quashnet River via groundwater discharge remained remarkably similar from winter to summer to fall conditions, despite a regional dry period in late summer 2022 with the upper river channel completely drying. This work addresses gaps in the existing PFAS literature by demonstrating the importance of subsurface fate and transport on PFAS compound concentrations in controlling contaminant mass loading in preferential groundwater discharge zones and presents a transferrable field toolkit for efficient characterization of spatially preferential PFAS transport dynamics.

Contaminant transport↗
DOE OSTI2025

Catalytic Oxygen Reduction for Deep O 2 Removal from CO 2 Streams

Streams of CO 2 from various capture processes may contain several impurities of which O 2 is often overlooked as a problematic impurity. Because of its reactivity, the National Energy Technology Laboratory has recommended a stringent limit, less than 10 ppm, for the O 2 level in treated CO 2 products for safe transport, storage, and utilization. Here, in this study, a variety of catalytic oxygen reduction approaches using commercial automotive exhaust emission catalysts are evaluated for O 2 removal from CO 2 streams using different reducing agents, including H 2 , CO, CH 3 OH, and CH 4 . When the amount of reductant added into the feed is carefully controlled, H 2 , CO, or CH 3 OH can effectively remove O 2 from 1.5% to below 10 ppm with a single-reactor design (>99.93% removal efficiency), while simultaneously meeting the impurity limits for other species. With CH 4 as a reductant, it is challenging to simultaneously meet the the O 2 and CO specifications in a single-reactor design because CH 4 also reacts with CO 2 to produce high levels of CO in the stream (at several hundred ppm). A dual-reactor design is developed to enable the use of CH 4 , a readily available and low-cost reductant, for the purification of CO 2 streams to meet the specifications for O 2 and other impurities.

CO2 purification↗
DOE OSTI2024

Biogeochemical and community ecology responses to the wetting of non-perennial streams

Transitions between dry and wet hydrologic states are the defining characteristic of non-perennial rivers and streams, which constitute the majority of the global river network. Although past work has focused on stream drying characteristics, there has been less focus on how hydrology, ecology and biogeochemistry respond and interact during stream wetting. Wetting mechanisms are highly variable and can range from dramatic floods and debris flows to gradual saturation by upwelling groundwater. This variation in wetting affects ecological and biogeochemical functions, including nutrient processing, sediment transport and the assembly of biotic communities. Here, in this work, we synthesize evidence describing the hydrological mechanisms underpinning different types of wetting regimes, the associated biogeochemical and organismal responses, and the potential scientific and management implications for downstream ecosystems. This combined multidisciplinary understanding of wetting dynamics in non-perennial streams will be key to predicting and managing for the effects of climate change on non-perennial ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bioconversion of self-neutralized chemically depolymerized lignin streams into polyhydroxyalkanoates

Lignin is a chemically complex, diverse, and abundant plant polymer mainly composed of aromatic monomers. These aromatic monomers make lignin a potential source of aromatics and a viable substitute for petrochemically-derived aromatics. However, the structural recalcitrance of lignin requires harsh reagents from the chemical process and expensive catalysts for effective depolymerization. This chemical process often results in poor yields of chemical intermediate mixtures of varying bioavailability and/or toxicity. Furthermore, the cost of additional reagents required to separate or detoxify these intermediates makes processing lignin impractical. We report progress towards the use of such chemically depolymerized lignin streams by employing bacterial strains to produce polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHA). PHAs are a group of biodegradable microbial polyesters that have potential as a replacement for petroleum-based plastics. In this study we utilized two distinct lignin streams obtained after chemical depolymerization of lignin under alkaline and acidic pH in the presence of catalysts. We mixed the alkali-treated depolymerized stream with the acid-treated depolymerized stream to create a solution of neutral-pH chemically depolymerized lignin (CDL). We found moderate to substantial growth of both native and non-native PHA producers on the mixture of CDL as well as its aliphatic and aromatic components. PHA was detected by Sudan Black B staining in C. necator H16, P. putida KT2440, and E. coli LSBJ STQKAB grown on mixed CDL as the sole carbon source. For C. necator H16 and E. coli LSBJ STQKAB we found that PHA content was greater when grown on mixed CDL when compared to their preferred carbon source by GC-FID quantification. Our study provided progress towards a cost-competitive, sustainable, and industrially relevant use for lignin.

Winkler, Gordon L. W. [Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Physics Imposed on a Streaming Operator by Spherical Transport Problems

The streaming operator, which generates a displacement of a particle on a straight line at a constant speed in transport theory, is derived algebraically from a spherical coordinate formulation of Newton’s second law. This derivation leads to an operator that has more partial derivatives than a Cartesian coordinate formulation of the operator. The additional partial derivatives, which are with respect to the normalized velocity variables of a particle, take into account the intrinsic curvature of a ball. Moreover, these partial derivatives mitigate ray effects, which arise when a finite number of normalized velocities (also called directions or discrete ordinates) are used to simulate a continuous S 2 sphere of directions, by rotating the polar axis of the S 2 sphere into the radial direction of the coordinate system. As a consequence of this rotation, the number of actual discrete ordinates is greatly amplified to an enormous number of effective discrete ordinates by a multiplier that is equal to the number of patches that partitions a spherical surface. In addition to the derivation of the streaming operator, we provide in closed form a solution to the system of characteristic equations that is equivalent to the streaming operator. Furthermore, the solution to the system of characteristic equations enables the construction of an integral operator that is the inverse to the streaming operator. Examples in which ray effects are immensely mitigated by spherical coordinates are presented.

integral operator↗
DOE OSTI2025

Auriga Streams – I: disrupting satellites surrounding Milky Way-mass haloes at multiple resolutions

In a hierarchically formed Universe, galaxies accrete smaller systems that tidally disrupt as they evolve in the host’s potential. We present a complete catalogue of disrupting galaxies accreted onto Milky Way-mass haloes from the Auriga suite of cosmological magnetohydrodynamic zoom-in simulations. We classify accretion events as intact satellites, stellar streams, or phase-mixed systems based on automated criteria calibrated to a visually classified sample, and match accretions to their counterparts in haloes re-simulated at higher resolution. Most satellites at the present day have lost substantial amounts of stellar mass – 67 per cent have $f_\text{bound} < 0.97$ (our threshold of lost stellar mass to no longer be considered intact), while 53 per cent satisfy a more stringent $f_\text{bound} < 0.8$. Streams typically outnumber intact systems, contribute a smaller fraction of overall accreted stars, and are substantial contributors at intermediate distances from the host centre ($\sim$0.1 to $\sim 0.7R_\text{200m}$, or $\sim$35 to $\sim$250 kpc for the Milky Way). We also identify accretion events that disrupt to form streams around massive intact satellites instead of the main host. Streams are more likely than intact or phase-mixed systems to have experienced pre-processing, suggesting this mechanism is important for setting disruption rates around Milky Way-mass haloes. All of these results are preserved across different simulation resolutions, though we do find some hints that satellites disrupt more readily at lower resolution. The Auriga haloes suggest that disrupting satellites surrounding Milky Way-mass galaxies are the norm and that a wealth of tidal features waits to be uncovered in upcoming surveys.

galaxies: haloes↗
DOE OSTI2025

Stream bed topography in 2016 at the Lower Montane site in the East River Watershed, Colorado

This dataset contains stream bed topography data from the Lower Montane site in the East River Watershed, Colorado. It is intended to support hydro-biogeochemical analyses for the Watershed Function Scientific Focus Area (SFA). The stream bed was surveyed using a RTK-GPS (Real-Time Kinematic Global Positioning System) and a total station at hundreds of locations during two field campaigns, conducted in October 2015 and October 2016. The two surveys were merged into a single product under the assumption of minimal changes in stream bed topography between the years. A LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) derived ground surface elevation product from 2015 (see reference below) was used to interpolate the stream bed topography and estimate water depth at the time of the LiDAR survey. The dataset includes three GeoTIFF products, two *.csv data files, and three *.csv metadata files. Feel free to contact the author with any questions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Streams, Shells, and Substructures in the Accretion-Built Stellar Halo of NGC 300

We present deep optical observations of the stellar halo of NGC 300, an LMC-mass galaxy, acquired with the DEEP sub-component of the DECam Local Volume Exploration survey (DELVE) using the 4 m Blanco Telescope. Our resolved star analysis reveals a large, low surface brightness stellar stream ($M_{V}\sim-8.5$; [Fe/H] $= -1.4\pm0.15$) extending more than 40 kpc north from the galaxy's center. We also find other halo structures, including potentially an additional stream wrap to the south, which may be associated with the main stream. The morphology and derived low metallicities of the streams and shells discovered surrounding NGC 300 are highly suggestive of a past accretion event. Assuming a single progenitor, the accreted system is approximately Fornax-like in luminosity, with an inferred mass ratio to NGC 300 of approximately $1:15$. We also present the discovery of a metal-poor globular cluster ($R_{\rm{proj}}=23.3$~kpc; $M_{V}=-8.99\pm0.16$; [Fe/H] $\approx-1.6\pm0.6$) in the halo of NGC 300, the furthest identified globular cluster associated with NGC 300. The stellar structures around NGC 300 represent the richest features observed in a Magellanic Cloud analog to date, strongly supporting the idea that accretion and subsequent disruption is an important mechanism in the assembly of dwarf galaxy stellar halos.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Characterization of Coal Refuse Sites in West Virginia: Stream Loss, Volume Estimation, and Land Cover Analysis for Restoration Feasibility

Coal refuse disposal across Appalachia has resulted in widespread environmental degradation, including stream burial, landscape destabilization, and long-term hydrologic impacts. This study provides a GIS-based spatial characterization of 623 coal refuse sites in West Virginia, evaluating their potential for ecological and economic restoration. Stream loss was quantified through digitization of historic topographic maps, revealing over 194,500 meters of historically present streams lost, with 105,000 meters directly buried beneath refuse piles. Volume estimation using empirical Bayesian kriging and modern LiDAR surfaces indicated approximately 1.96 billion cubic meters of deposited refuse. Land cover analysis based on NAIP-derived classification showed that 48% of the total site area was forested, while 15% remained barren. These results highlight not only the environmental footprint of legacy refuse deposits but also their potential for restoration through stream daylighting and beneficial reuse. Emerging opportunities, including rare earth element recovery and mitigation banking, may offer economic incentives to facilitate reclamation. This work establishes a spatial framework to prioritize refuse sites for restoration, balancing ecological uplift with feasible material management strategies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Forecasting Dark Matter Subhalo Constraints from Stellar Streams using Implicit Likelihood Inference

The evidence for dark matter (DM) remains compelling, although attempts to understand its particle nature remain inconclusive. One promising method to study DM is detecting DM subhalos through their gravitational interactions with stellar streams. In this study, we apply Neural Posterior Estimation (NPE) to constrain subhalo interaction parameters, including mass, scale radius, velocity, and encounter geometry, from stellar stream kinematics. We generate particle spray simulations based on the Lagrange Cloud stripping technique, focusing on the ATLAS-Aliqa Uma stream as a test case. We train multiple NPE models across multiple observational scenarios, quantifying how kinematic completeness affects inference and forecasting constraints from upcoming surveys including LSST, 4MOST, and 10-year Gaia data. Our results demonstrate that NPE can produce accurate and well-calibrated posteriors. In the idealized case with full 6D coordinates, we achieve subhalo mass uncertainties of 15-20% for a $10^7 \, \mathrm{M_\odot}$ subhalo, with 5D coordinates (excluding radial velocities) achieving similar performance. Under realistic observational conditions, mass uncertainties range from 50% (present-day) to 20-40% (future scenarios), with comparable performance between the photometric-only LSST sample and a smaller sample that includes Gaia proper motions and 4MOST radial velocities. Most notably, we find that velocity bimodality emerges when phase space is poorly sampled, whether due to missing kinematic information or limited stellar tracers. Combining large photometric samples with targeted spectroscopic follow-up can effectively resolves this degeneracy. These results demonstrate the power of implicit likelihood inference for optimizing stellar stream observational strategies and forecasting DM subhalo constraints from upcoming surveys.

Nguyen, Tri [Northwestern U. (main); SkAI, Chicago↗
DOE OSTI2024

Low flow characteristics for regulated and unregulated streams in North Carolina and prediction using climate signals

In this work, low flow statistics of regulated and unregulated streams in the state of North Carolina were updated with streamflow data through 2019. About 22% of the streams considered show a significant downward trend, but considerable low-frequency variability confounding trends. The relationship between regional index time series of groundwater-depth low flow and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) was examined to determine whether low-frequency climate modes can account for the long-term pattern in low flows. Consequently, a significant correlation was found between AMO and groundwater-depth low flow, such that positive AMO is associated with lower groundwater-depth low flow and vice versa, particularly for the Piedmont region. Predictive equations for annual low flows at the ecoregion level shows that springtime average streamflow and AMO were selected as the primary predictors of low flow for coastal and Piedmont regions, whereas springtime average streamflow and the November–December–January average Oceanic Niño Index were used as the primary predictors for the mountain region. The relative root mean square error (RMSE) of the disaggregated predictions to US Geologic Survey gauge locations was <23% at 79% of the stations, between 24% and 43% at 10% of the stations, and greater than 44% at 1% of the stations. The remaining 10% of stations showed large RMSEs. This latter percentage is characterized by smaller drainage basins and intermittent flows, suggesting the prediction models are not applicable to drainage basins smaller than roughly 20 square km and intermittent streams.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗