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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Probing Sensitivity of Discharge Characteristics to Model Selection using Uncertainty Quantification in an aprotic Li-Oxygen Battery

Currently, there are several models in the literature, such as kinetic models, microstructural models, and mass transport models that describe a Li-air battery's discharge behavior. Many of these models are calibrated and tested at low current densities and cannot be easily transferred to high current densities. Even at low current densities, there is no quantitative method for a researcher to choose a reaction kinetic model such as classical Butler-Volmer and its derivatives, and modified Marcus-Hush-Chidsey, a resistance model for lithium peroxide such as electron transport via tunneling or linear resistivity, a surface coverage model (lithium peroxide growth) such as partial coverage or full coverage, and mass transport model (discussed in Ref. [1]). Also, it is time-consuming to test different models at high current density (1C) due to a lack of well-tested models and well-calibrated model parameters. For this presentation, we will develop an analytical model, which acts as a surrogate model for a sophisticated finite element model to predict discharge time and discharge voltage. Next, we use an uncertainty quantifying technique called reduced-order stochastic optimization [2, 3] to determine the uncertainty in model parameters for rate kinetics, lithium peroxide resistivity, and parasitic resistance. Finally, a finite element simulation is performed to determine the error introduced by the surrogate model and its influence on the uncertainty in the model parameters.

M Mehta↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Probabilistic Modeling of a Three-Stage Human Landing System Architecture

Unmitigated uncertainties are known to have previously led to failed development programs; in order to combat these uncertainties, risks and their impacts must be understood and handled to ensure program success. In this paper, a probabilistic methodology to handle uncertainties is demonstrated on a three-element Human Landing System (HLS) concept, which allows tracking of current best estimates of the vehicle’s performance and assessment of its robustness against uncertainties. This methodology has two key parts: first, the creation of a dynamic architecture model of a three-element HLS concept; and second, its use with surrogate modeling and range estimating techniques to capture and propagate uncertainties. The DYnamic Rocket EQuation Tool (DYREQT), a space systems synthesis and sizing framework used by NASA, was used as to model the HLS architecture. For the probabilistic analysis, uncertainties of interest within the HLS concept were enumerated and represented as parameters within the DYREQT model as inputs for vehicle stages or mission profile events. Range estimating — a probabilistic method that combines Monte Carlo sampling, focus on critical parameters, and heuristics to assess risk and opportunities — is then adapted with operational parameters as well as vehicle parameters in the DYREQT model to capture mission uncertainty alongside vehicle uncertainty. To perform the range estimation portion of this methodology, the DYREQT model was sampled using a Design of Experiments (DoE) to efficiently explore the architecture design space with respect to the set of uncertainty parameters. Then, the results were used to create surrogate models, multivariate regressions that can visualize hypercube trends in the design space, of the architecture with respect to the uncertainty parameters. Using a correlation matrix constructed for the uncertainty parameters, previously independent samples were transformed to perform a Correlated Monte Carlo on the surrogate models. This probabilistic methodology was proved to provide insight into the underlying uncertainties of the three-element HLS architecture.

Stephanie Y Zhu↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Probabilistic Modeling of a Three-Stage Human Landing System Architecture

Unmitigated uncertainties are known to have previously led to failed development programs; in order to combat these uncertainties, risks and their impacts must be understood and handled to ensure program success. In this paper, a probabilistic methodology to handle uncertainties is demonstrated on a three-element Human Landing System (HLS) concept, which allows tracking of current best estimates of the vehicle’s performance and assessment of its robustness against uncertainties. This methodology has two key parts: first, the creation of a dynamic architecture model of a three-element HLS concept; and second, its use with surrogate modeling and range estimating techniques to capture and propagate uncertainties. The DYnamic Rocket EQuation Tool (DYREQT), a space systems synthesis and sizing framework used by NASA, was used as to model the HLS architecture. For the probabilistic analysis, uncertainties of interest within the HLS concept were enumerated and represented as parameters within the DYREQT model as inputs for vehicle stages or mission profile events. Range estimating — a probabilistic method that combines Monte Carlo sampling, focus on critical parameters, and heuristics to assess risk and opportunities — is then adapted with operational parameters as well as vehicle parameters in the DYREQT model to capture mission uncertainty alongside vehicle uncertainty. To perform the range estimation portion of this methodology, the DYREQT model was sampled using a Design of Experiments (DoE) to efficiently explore the architecture design space with respect to the set of uncertainty parameters. Then, the results were used to create surrogate models, multivariate regressions that can visualize hypercube trends in the design space, of the architecture with respect to the uncertainty parameters. Using a correlation matrix constructed for the uncertainty parameters, previously independent samples were transformed to perform a Correlated Monte Carlo on the surrogate models. This probabilistic methodology was proved to provide insight into the underlying uncertainties of the three-element HLS architecture.

Stephanie Y. Zhu↗
NASA NTRS2019

Improving Accuracy of Structural Dynamic Modification with Augmented Residual Vectors

It is often important to perform sensitivity analysis to determine how a structural model will be impacted by design changes. Often, the structural analysts will manually make changes to the finite element model (FEM) to determine the effects. But when dealing with a large FEM with millions of degrees of freedom these manual changes can be cumbersome and calculation of the effects can computationally expensive. Therefore, it is desirable to determine the effects of model changes through approximation methods. One common technique is to determine the analytical sensitivity of the FEM model with respect to the given change. These analytical sensitivities are valid when small changes are made to the structural model, but invalid if large changes need to be assessed. Another approach is to use Structural Dynamic Modification (SDM) to create a surrogate model to analyze model changes. SDM is a widely-used sensitivity method and is used in applications of model updating, uncertainty quantification, and model design studies. SMD is valid for moderate (10-20 percent) changes in the structural model, but model approximations are often needed for large parameter changes (greater than 20 percent). Structural Dynamic Modification can be improved by using residual vectors to augment the surrogate model formulation from SDM. Adding the residual modes increases the fidelity of the surrogate model while keeping the computational cost low. This paper discusses the application and limitations of the augmented residual modes method to two structures: the Integrated Spacecraft and Payload Element (ISPE) of the Space Launch System (SLS) and the full SLS as it is configured during its Integrated Modal Test (IMT).

Stewart, Eric C.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Thermal Protection System Mass Estimating Relationships for Blunt-Body, Earth Entry Spacecraft

System analysis and design of any entry system must balance the level fidelity for each discipline against the project timeline. One way to inject high fidelity analysis earlier in the design effort is to develop surrogate models for the high-fidelity disciplines. Surrogate models for the Thermal Protection System (TPS) are formulated as Mass Estimating Relationships (MERs). The TPS MERs are presented that predict the amount of TPS necessary for safe Earth entry for blunt-body spacecraft using simple correlations that closely match estimates from NASA's high-fidelity ablation modeling tool, the Fully Implicit Ablation and Thermal Analysis Program (FIAT). These MERs provide a first order estimate for rapid feasibility studies. There are 840 different trajectories considered in this study, and each TPS MER has a peak heating limit. MERs for the vehicle forebody include the ablators Phenolic Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA) and Carbon Phenolic atop Advanced Carbon-Carbon. For the aftbody, the materials are Silicone Impregnated Reusable Ceramic Ablator (SIRCA), Acusil II, SLA-561V, and LI-900. The MERs are accurate to within 14% (at one standard deviation) of FIAT prediction, and the most any MER under predicts FIAT TPS thickness is 18.7%. This work focuses on the development of these MERs, the resulting equations, model limitations, and model accuracy.

mass estimating relationship (MER)↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Probabilistic Modeling of a Three-Stage Human Landing System Architecture

Space Policy Directive-1 has led to NASA partnerships with commercial entities on procurement which includes the development of the Human Landing System (HLS) [1]. With the goal of delivering human crew to the lunar surface by 2024, system uncertainties become an important obstacle to the maturation of multiple new, driving technologies and mission concepts of the HLS program. As unmitigated uncertainties have previously led to failed development programs, these risks and their impacts must be understood and handled to ensure program success [2]. Sources of uncertainty include novel engine designs and configurations, increased reliance on cryogenic fluid management(CFM), and refueling technologies—which propagate as high-level performance metrics such as overall propellant mass and engine performance. Also, the occurrence of operational uncertainties—e.g. launch conditions or need to abort during the mission—can cause cascading effects on the rest of the mission that are difficult to definitively quantify, and are outside the scope of control. These concrete examples and other occurrences can be categorized as either epistemic or aleatory uncertainties.Epistemic uncertainty arises due to a lack of knowledge and can be alleviated with design and program maturation. Aleatory uncertainty is due to the inherent randomness of the system and cannot be directly reduced, unlike epistemic uncertainty. Robust design and probabilistic methods can compensate for aleatory effects. A taxonomy of uncertainty is referred to for this work [3]. In this paper, a probabilistic methodology to handle uncertainties has been demonstrated on a three-element HLS concept [1, 4], which allows tracking of current best estimates of the concept and assessment of concept design robustness against uncertainties. A sample case has been completed for this abstract, and an expansion on the methodology will be included in the final paper. This methodology has two key parts: first, the creation of a dynamic architecture model of a three-element HLS concept; and second, its use with surrogate modeling and range estimating techniques to capture and propagate uncertainties. This abstract will cover the basics of the approach used, and further details and justifications will be in the final paper.The mission profile associated with this three-element concept (Fig 1) was modeled as a set of mission events that facilitated mass changes, idles, or spacecraft maneuvers. The mission profile scope starts with each element’s NRHO orbit insertion and aggregation and ends at post-sortie rendezvous with Orion. More detail on the mission profile will be in the final paper. The DYnamic Rocket EQuation Tool (DYREQT), a space systems synthesis and sizing framework used by NASA, was used as the physics framework to model the HLS architecture for applying the probabilistic methodology [5, 6]. Specifically, a parametric representation of the lander, ascent, and transfer elements and the mission profile of each element was established, with vehicle and mission parameters available as inputs to allow for a dynamic model. Each vehicle stage was modeled with high-level performance metrics, using Isp and propellant mass fraction (PMF) to remain parametric. For the probabilistic analysis, uncertainties of interest within the HLS concept were enumerated and represented as parameters within the DYREQT model as inputs for vehicle stages or mission profile events. These parameters were frozen at their nominal values for the purposes of baselining architecture performance and sizing the vehicle appropriately based on reference documentation [1]. Range estimating—a probabilistic method that combines Monte Carlo sampling, focus on critical parameters, and heuristics to assess risk and opportunities—is traditionally used with Mass Equipment Lists (MELs), but has been adapted with operational parameters as well as vehicle parameters in theDYREQT model to capture mission uncertainty alongside vehicle uncertainty [7, 3]. This method was selected due to its application and insight on a system from a bottom-up perspective, independence from historical rules of thumb, and ability to generate sensitivities based on design decisions and uncertainties. As a sample case for the abstract, the boiloff rates of the vehicle elements and the loiter times during the mission (simulating launch time variations and changing window of opportunities) were used with range estimating to provide preliminary results. To perform the range estimation portion of this methodology (depicted in Fig. 3, further details in final paper), the DYREQT model was sampled using a Design of Experiments (DoE) to efficiently explore the architecture design space with respect to the sample set of uncertainty parameters; 5,000 cases via Latin Hypercube Sampling were computed on the DYREQT architecture model. Then, the results were used to create surrogate models, multivariate regressions that can visualize hypercube trends in the design space, of the architecture with respect to the uncertainty parameters. Range estimating was applied to the surrogates instead of the actual models, which saves computational expense due to the bulk of cases needed for the Monte Carlo simulation as part of range estimating. Uncertainty parameters were sampled independently from triangular distributions using the DoE ranges as ‘min’ and ‘max’, and the nominal value as ‘most likely’. Based engineering intuition, some uncertainty parameters are correlated—e.g. if the main propellant has a high boil-off rate, the oxidizer should follow suit as both are related to CFM technology.While a Monte Carlo simulation samples all inputs as independent, the results would show model correlations; thus, it is efficient to sample the inputs as correlated. Using a correlation matrix constructed for the uncertainty parameters, previously independent samples were transformed to perform a Correlated Monte Carlo. A table for the DoE ranges and probability distribution parameters is shown in Table 1, and more details on Correlated Monte Carlo Simulations will be discussed in the final paper. The model’s resulting DoE showed that multivariate polynomial equations fit via least squares method captured its behavior accurately for the sample case. For the Correlated Monte Carlo Simulation, a positive correlation between fuel and oxidizer boiloff rates was used as a demonstration. 10,000 cases were computed with the surrogates and the launched masses for each vehicle element was collated. The results can be displayed in a probability density function (PDF), showing the impact of the uncertainty parameters chosen. Integrating the PDFs will yield a cumulative distribution function (CDF) that shows the cumulative probability of a given value on the x-axis. For the sample case, the elements’ launch mass margin was calculated and represented in as CDFs, as a demonstrated representation of figures of merit for the HLS concept. For the lander and ascent elements, the NRHO mass insertion limit is 16t; the transfer element has a limit of 30t [1]. It can be seen with Figure 2 that this probabilistic methodology can provide insight into mass margin with respect to the uncertainties being modeled. Currently, the results show that the lander (descent) vehicle element has the most restrictive design space; it is the only element to show a 10% probability of negative margin. Further analysis on the Monte Carlo results will show sensitivities for driving constraints and parameters for architecture feasibility, which can lead to establishing potential mission rules.The combination of range estimating with a parametric architecture model for HLS demonstrated the capability of this probabilistic methodology in a sample case. As the HLS development progresses, this methodology has the potential for keeping current best estimates of architecture performance for awarded concepts due to the flexibility in DYREQT’s modeling framework and its parametric nature. Concept maturation and increased epistemic knowledge can be injected into the model probabilistic modeling, and thus continue to track probability of mission success.

Stephanie Y Zhu↗
NASA NTRS2017

Improvement of Automated POST Case Success Rate Using Support Vector Machines

During early conceptual design of complex systems, concept down selection can have a large impact upon program life-cycle cost. Therefore, any concepts selected during early design will inherently commit program costs and affect the overall probability of program success. For this reason it is important to consider as large a design space as possible in order to better inform the down selection process. For conceptual design of launch vehicles, trajectory analysis and optimization often presents the largest obstacle to evaluating large trade spaces. This is due to the sensitivity of the trajectory discipline to changes in all other aspects of the vehicle design. Small deltas in the performance of other subsystems can result in relatively large fluctuations in the ascent trajectory because the solution space is non-linear and multi-modal [1]. In order to help capture large design spaces for new launch vehicles, the authors have performed previous work seeking to automate the execution of the industry standard tool, Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories (POST). This work initially focused on implementation of analyst heuristics to enable closure of cases in an automated fashion, with the goal of applying the concepts of design of experiments (DOE) and surrogate modeling to enable near instantaneous throughput of vehicle cases [2]. Additional work was then completed to improve the DOE process by utilizing a graph theory based approach to connect similar design points [3]. The conclusion of the previous work illustrated the utility of the graph theory approach for completing a DOE through POST. However, this approach was still dependent upon the use of random repetitions to generate seed points for the graph. As noted in [3], only 8% of these random repetitions resulted in converged trajectories. This ultimately affects the ability of the random reps method to confidently approach the global optima for a given vehicle case in a reasonable amount of time. With only an 8% pass rate, tens or hundreds of thousands of reps may be needed to be confident that the best repetition is at least close to the global optima. However, typical design study time constraints require that fewer repetitions be attempted, sometimes resulting in seed points that have only a handful of successful completions. If a small number of successful repetitions are used to generate a seed point, the graph method may inherit some inaccuracies as it chains DOE cases from the non-global-optimal seed points. This creates inherent noise in the graph data, which can limit the accuracy of the resulting surrogate models. For this reason, the goal of this work is to improve the seed point generation method and ultimately the accuracy of the resulting POST surrogate model. The work focuses on increasing the case pass rate for seed point generation.

Zwack, Matthew R.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Probabilistic Prognosis of Non-Planar Fatigue Crack Growth

Quantifying the uncertainty in model parameters for the purpose of damage prognosis can be accomplished utilizing Bayesian inference and damage diagnosis data from sources such as non-destructive evaluation or structural health monitoring. The number of samples required to solve the Bayesian inverse problem through common sampling techniques (e.g., Markov chain Monte Carlo) renders high-fidelity finite element-based damage growth models unusable due to prohibitive computation times. However, these types of models are often the only option when attempting to model complex damage growth in real-world structures. Here, a recently developed high-fidelity crack growth model is used which, when compared to finite element-based modeling, has demonstrated reductions in computation times of three orders of magnitude through the use of surrogate models and machine learning. The model is flexible in that only the expensive computation of the crack driving forces is replaced by the surrogate models, leaving the remaining parameters accessible for uncertainty quantification. A probabilistic prognosis framework incorporating this model is developed and demonstrated for non-planar crack growth in a modified, edge-notched, aluminum tensile specimen. Predictions of remaining useful life are made over time for five updates of the damage diagnosis data, and prognostic metrics are utilized to evaluate the performance of the prognostic framework. Challenges specific to the probabilistic prognosis of non-planar fatigue crack growth are highlighted and discussed in the context of the experimental results.

Leser, Patrick E.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Probabilistic Calibration of Expensive Models using Efficiently Trained Surrogates

Calibration of computational models in the presence of uncertainty is often cast as a Bayesian inference problem and solved via sampling methods, e.g., Markov chain Monte Carlo. When the computational model is expensive, this task becomes intractable due to the large number of samples required to accurately estimate the posterior distribution of the calibration parameters. A popular solution to this problem is to use machine learning to develop a faster-to-evaluate, lower-fidelity substitute for the original model to serve as a surrogate while solving the inference problem. Although considered an offline cost, generating training data to construct this surrogate model can still be an expensive task in practice. An active learning algorithm is presented that focuses training on improving surrogate accuracy specifically in and around the bulk of the posterior distribution, as this is where the model is exercised during calibration. Candidate samples are drawn from families of distributions related to an approximation of the posterior. The sample maximizing predictive variance is then selected for evaluation by the original computational model, yielding a label for the training point. Iterating this approach increases efficiency relative to space filling designs (e.g., Latin hypercube sampling) by avoiding low probability points. Practical considerations are discussed, including the benefits of using a sequential Monte Carlo sampling approach, convergence heuristics, and the importance of both exploration and exploitation given that the true posterior is unknown a priori.

uncertainty quantification↗
NASA NTRS2016

Augmenting Parametric Optimal Ascent Trajectory Modeling with Graph Theory

It has been well documented that decisions made in the early stages of Conceptual and Pre-Conceptual design commit up to 80% of total Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) while engineers know the least about the product they are designing [1]. Once within Preliminary and Detailed design however, making changes to the design becomes far more difficult to enact in both cost and schedule. Primarily this has been due to a lack of detailed data usually uncovered later during the Preliminary and Detailed design phases. In our current budget-constrained environment, making decisions within Conceptual and Pre-Conceptual design which minimize LCC while meeting requirements is paramount to a program's success. Within the arena of launch vehicle design, optimizing the ascent trajectory is critical for minimizing the costs present within such concerns as propellant, aerodynamic, aeroheating, and acceleration loads while meeting requirements such as payload delivered to a desired orbit. In order to optimize the vehicle design its constraints and requirements must be known, however as the design cycle proceeds it is all but inevitable that the conditions will change. Upon that change, the previously optimized trajectory may no longer be optimal, or meet design requirements. The current paradigm for adjusting to these updates is generating point solutions for every change in the design's requirements [2]. This can be a tedious, time-consuming task as changes in virtually any piece of a launch vehicle's design can have a disproportionately large effect on the ascent trajectory, as the solution space of the trajectory optimization problem is both non-linear and multimodal [3]. In addition, an industry standard tool, Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories (POST), requires an expert analyst to produce simulated trajectories that are feasible and optimal [4]. In a previous publication the authors presented a method for combatting these challenges [5]. In order to bring more detailed information into Conceptual and Pre-Conceptual design, knowledge of the effects originating from changes to the vehicle must be calculated. In order to do this, a model capable of quantitatively describing any vehicle within the entire design space under consideration must be constructed. This model must be based upon analysis of acceptable fidelity, which in this work comes from POST. Design space interrogation can be achieved with surrogate modeling, a parametric, polynomial equation representing a tool. A surrogate model must be informed by data from the tool with enough points to represent the solution space for the chosen number of variables with an acceptable level of error. Therefore, Design Of Experiments (DOE) is used to select points within the design space to maximize information gained on the design space while minimizing number of data points required. To represent a design space with a non-trivial number of variable parameters the number of points required still represent an amount of work which would take an inordinate amount of time via the current paradigm of manual analysis, and so an automated method was developed. The best practices of expert trajectory analysts working within NASA Marshall's Advanced Concepts Office (ACO) were implemented within a tool called multiPOST. These practices include how to use the output data from a previous run of POST to inform the next, determining whether a trajectory solution is feasible from a real-world perspective, and how to handle program execution errors. The tool was then augmented with multiprocessing capability to enable analysis on multiple trajectories simultaneously, allowing throughput to scale with available computational resources. In this update to the previous work the authors discuss issues with the method and solutions.

Patrick D Dees↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Stochastic Reconstruction of Thermal Protection Material Properties from Arc-Jet Experiments

Material response models are used to assess reliability using variances in the bond-line temperature predictions based on uncertainties in trajectory, aerothermal environment, and material properties. A key deficiency in the current approach is that input uncertainties are too often subjective, empirical, or ad-hoc, and are not rigorously linked to the arc-jet test data used to develop the TPS material model. While materials such as PICA are well understood, future missions may require more novel materials such as HEEET where unknown uncertainties have real consequences on the ability to assess reliability. A quantifiable estimate of reliability requires an iterative methodology where the parameters driving the variance in bond-line temperature (for example) are systematically identified. A test campaign to collect data or develop new models can then be identified to reduce those input uncertainties. A Bayesian inference loop defines these connections mathematically, i.e., prior knowledge about uncertainty is updated based on observation. While these concepts are well known (and often applied intuitively in a non-rigorous approach), only recent advances in reduced-order modelling have made them computationally viable methods for engineering. By replacing deterministic inverse methods with stochastic approaches, the hope is new materials proposed for future missions can more rapidly be developed with a greater understanding of the TPS material reliability. Two additional steps for the analysis of arc jet test data are discussed. The first is ability to construct a reduced-order model using material response simulations (Icarus/US3D) of the arc-jet test articles, and the second is the inclusion of this surrogate model in the Bayesian inversion process. Both capabilities will be demonstrated using prior PICA arc-jet test data. The quality of a surrogate model will be investigated and the variances on the calibrated material properties will be compared to our current understanding of the PICA material model.

Material response↗
NASA NTRS2023

Prediction of Stiffness and Fatigue Lives of Polymer Matrix Composite Laminates Using Artificial Neural Networks

Machine learning (ML) models are increasingly being used in many engineering fields due to the advancements in ML algorithms and availability of high-speed computing power. One of the most popular ML class of models is artificial neural networks (ANN). ML is increasingly being used in the design and analysis of composite materials and structures, specifically in the constitutive modeling of composite materials with the focus on greatly accelerating multiscale analyses of composite materials and structures through development of surrogate models. Towards that end, both Python and MATLAB-based neural nets have been developed to predict initial stiffness and fatigue life of an eight-ply symmetric polymer matrix composite laminate. Two types of neural networks, a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), have been developed for both platforms. Results show that the both neural net types can provide an excellent estimate of initial stiffness as well as fatigue life of eight-ply symmetric polymer matrix composite laminate. RNNs are better able to capture the shape of the fatigue curve of a laminate. This tool can be very useful for system level studies to obtain an estimate of desired properties and life of PMC composite laminates. The associated surrogate models could also be used in composite multiscale analyses to replace the actual physics-based calculations at lower scales and thereby significantly increase the computational efficiency of such analyses and thus make multiscale analyses a viable industrial tool for large scale structural problems.

Composite↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Stiffness and Fatigue Life Estimator for Polymer Composite Laminates Using Machine Learning

Machine learning (ML) models are increasingly being used in many engineering fields due to the advancements in ML algorithms and availability of high-speed computing power. One of the most popular ML class of models is artificial neural networks (ANN). ML is increasingly being used in the design and analysis of composite materials and structures, specifically in the constitutive modeling of composite materials with the focus on greatly accelerating multiscale analyses of composite materials and structures through development of surrogate models. Towards that end, Python-based neural nets have been developed to predict initial stiffness and fatigue life of an eight-ply symmetric polymer matrix composite laminate. Two types of neural networks, a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), have been established. Results show that both neural net type algorithms can provide an excellent estimate of initial laminate stiffness as well as fatigue life of eight-ply symmetric polymer matrix composite laminates (PMCs). RNNs are better able to capture the shape of the fatigue curve of a laminate. The resulting tool and GUI can be very useful for system level studies to obtain an estimate of desired properties and life of PMC composite laminates. Further, the associated surrogate models can also be used in composite multiscale analyses to replace the actual physics-based calculations at lower scales and thereby significantly increase the computational efficiency of such analyses and thus make micromechanics-based multiscale analyses a viable industrial tool for large scale structural problems.

multiscale analysis↗
NASA NTRS2023

Stiffness and Fatigue Life Estimator for Polymer Composite Laminates Using Machine Learning

Machine learning (ML) models are increasingly being used in many engineering fields due to the advancements in ML algorithms and availability of high-speed computing power. One of the most popular ML class of models is artificial neural networks (ANN). ML is increasingly being used in the design and analysis of composite materials and structures, specifically in the constitutive modeling of composite materials with the focus on greatly accelerating multiscale analyses of composite materials and structures through development of surrogate models. Towards that end, Python-based neural nets have been developed to predict initial stiffness and fatigue life of an eight-ply symmetric polymer matrix composite laminate. Two types of neural networks, a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), have been established. Results show that both neural net type algorithms can provide an excellent estimate of initial laminate stiffness as well as fatigue life of eight-ply symmetric polymer matrix composite laminates (PMCs). RNNs are better able to capture the shape of the fatigue curve of a laminate. The resulting tool and GUI can be very useful for system level studies to obtain an estimate of desired properties and life of PMC composite laminates. Further, the associated surrogate models can also be used in composite multiscale analyses to replace the actual physics-based calculations at lower scales and thereby significantly increase the computational efficiency of such analyses and thus make micromechanics-based multiscale analyses a viable industrial tool for large scale structural problems.

multiscale analysis↗
NASA NTRS2020

Application of Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics for Physics-Informed Learning

Advances in machine learning and deep neural networks has enabled complex engineering tasks like image recognition, anomaly detection, regression, and multi-objective optimization, to name but a few. The complexity of the algorithm architecture, e.g., the number of hidden layers in a deep neural network, typically grows with the complexity of the problems they are required to solve, leaving little room for interpreting (or explaining) the path that results in a specific solution. This drawback is particularly relevant for autonomous aerospace and aviation systems, where certifications require a complete understanding of the algorithm behavior in all possible scenarios. Including physics knowledge in such data-driven tools may improve the interpretability of the algorithms, thus enhancing model validation against events with low probability but relevant for system certification. Such events include, for example, spacecraft or aircraft sub-system failures, for which data may not be available in the training phase. This paper investigates a recent physics-informed learning algorithm for identification of system dynamics, and shows how the governing equations of a system can be extracted from data using sparse regression. The learned relationships can be utilized as a surrogate model which, unlike typical data-driven surrogate models, relies on the learned underlying dynamics of the system rather than large number of fitting parameters. The work shows that the algorithm can reconstruct the differential equations underlying the observed dynamics using a single trajectory when no uncertainty is involved. However, the training set size must increase when dealing with stochastic systems, e.g., nonlinear dynamics with random initial conditions.

Corbetta, Matteo↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Study of Trailing Edge Mini Flaps Interactions on a Wind Tunnel Scale Aspect Ratio 13.5 Common Research Model

This paper presents a computation study of an aspect ratio 13.5 wind tunnel scale Common Research Model (CRM) with trailing edge mini-flaps. A vortex-lattice model of the CRM is developed with transonic small disturbance and integral boundary-layer corrections coupled with NASTRAN equivalent beam model for the rapid CRM aeroelastic simulation. The simulations are performed with individual trailing edge mini-flap deflected and a series of groups of two adjacent trailing edge mini-flaps deflected at the same time. A surrogate model is developed to estimate the aerodynamic interactions between the flaps. To validate the surrogate model, static aeroelastic simulations are performed using FUN3D CFD solver.

Interaction↗
NASA NTRS2002

Three Dimensional CFD Analysis of the GTX Combustor

The annular combustor geometry of a combined-cycle engine has been analyzed with three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics. Both subsonic combustion and supersonic combustion flowfields have been simulated. The subsonic combustion analysis was executed in conjunction with a direct-connect test rig. Two cold-flow and one hot-flow results are presented. The simulations compare favorably with the test data for the two cold flow calculations; the hot-flow data was not yet available. The hot-flow simulation indicates that the conventional ejector-ramjet cycle would not provide adequate mixing at the conditions tested. The supersonic combustion ramjet flowfield was simulated with frozen chemistry model. A five-parameter test matrix was specified, according to statistical design-of-experiments theory. Twenty-seven separate simulations were used to assemble surrogate models for combustor mixing efficiency and total pressure recovery. ScramJet injector design parameters (injector angle, location, and fuel split) as well as mission variables (total fuel massflow and freestream Mach number) were included in the analysis. A promising injector design has been identified that provides good mixing characteristics with low total pressure losses. The surrogate models can be used to develop performance maps of different injector designs. Several complex three-way variable interactions appear within the dataset that are not adequately resolved with the current statistical analysis.

Steffen, C. J., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Three Dimensional CFD Analysis of the GTX Combustor

The annular combustor geometry of a combined-cycle engine has been analyzed with three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics. Both subsonic combustion and supersonic combustion flowfields have been simulated. The subsonic combustion analysis was executed in conjunction with a direct-connect test rig. Two cold-flow and one hot-flow results are presented. The simulations compare favorably with the test data for the two cold flow calculations; the hot-flow data was not yet available. The hot-flow simulation Indicates that the conventional ejector-ramjet cycle would not provide adequate mixing at the conditions tested. The supersonic combustion ramjet flowfield was simulated with frozen chemistry model. A five-parameter test matrix was specified, according to statistical design-of-experiments theory. Twenty-seven separate simulations were used to assemble surrogate models for combustor mixing efficiency and total pressure recovery. Scramjet injector design parameters (injector angle, location, and fuel split) as well as mission variables (total fuel mass flow and freestream Mach number) were included in the analysis. A promising injector design has been identified that provides good mixing characteristics with low total pressure losses. The surrogate models can be used to develop performance maps of different injector designs. Several complex three-way variable interactions appear within the dataset that are not adequately resolved with the current statistical analysis.

Steffen, C. J., Jr.↗