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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Dynamic energy system modeling using hybrid physics-based and machine learning encoder–decoder models

Three model configurations are presented for multi-step time series predictions of the heat absorbed by the water and steam in a thermal power plant. The models predict over horizons of 2, 4, and 6 steps into the future, where each step is a 5-minute increment. The evaluated models are a pure machine learning model, a novel hybrid machine learning and physics-based model, and the hybrid model with an incomplete dataset. The hybrid model deconstructs the machine learning into individual boiler heat absorption units: economizer, water wall, superheater, and reheater. Each configuration uses a gated recurrent unit (GRU) or a GRU-based encoder–decoder as the deep learning architecture. Mean squared error is used to evaluate the models compared to target values. The encoder–decoder architecture is over 11% more accurate than the GRU only models. The hybrid model with the incomplete dataset highlights the importance of the manipulated variables to the system. The hybrid model, compared to the pure machine learning model, is over 10% more accurate on average over 20 iterations of each model. Automatic differentiation is applied to the hybrid model to perform a local sensitivity analysis to identify the most impactful of the 72 manipulated variables on the heat absorbed in the boiler. The models and sensitivity analyses are used in a discussion about optimizing the thermal power plant.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Deep Learning Explicit Differentiable Predictive Control Laws for Buildings

We present a differentiable predictive control (DPC) methodology for learning constrained control laws for unknown nonlinear systems. DPC poses an approximate solution to multiparametric programming problems emerging from explicit nonlinear model predictive control (MPC). Contrary to approximate MPC, DPC does not require supervision by an expert controller. Instead, a system dynamics model is learned from a small dataset of recorded observations of the perturbed system's dynamics and the control law is optimized offline by interaction with the learned system model. The DPC method is based on two sequential steps, i) system identification using a constrained neural state-space model, and ii) optimization of an explicit control law parametrized by another neural network in closed-loop simulation with the identified neural state-space model. The combination of a differentiable closed-loop system and penalty methods for constraint handling of system outputs and inputs allows us to optimize the control law's parameters directly by backpropagating economic MPC loss through the learned system model. By incorporating domain knowledge and leveraging established techniques from optimal control, our method leverages deep neural networks as nonlinear function approximators for system identification and control while avoiding concomitant costs of intractably large datasets, and computationally expensive over-parametrized models. The scalability, data efficiency, and constrained optimal control capability of the proposed DPC method are demonstrated in simulation using a multi-zone building emulator.

Drgona, Jan↗
DOE OSTI2022

COVID-19 Impact on Prison Population and Flow Dynamics

The goal of this project was to develop a unique, high-level, concept model that will (1) help examine the consequences COVID-19 has had on prison population and flow dynamics in Illinois and (2) explore (to the extent possible) how that will unfold in the short- and mid-term future. Argonne has unique expertise in dynamic systems modeling and highly specialized simulation capabilities, which will be helpful in developing such a model. The ultimate objective of this CRADA is to develop with the Illinois Public Sentencing Policy Advisory Council (SPAC) the capability to identify and understand factors and interactions associated with prison population and flow dynamics in Illinois. This understanding will then potentially lead to improvements in the allocation of various resources and services. This approach would also be useful to all other states.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimated attribution of the RFS program on soybean biodiesel in the U.S. using the bioenergy scenario model

Biofuels are supported by various governmental policies in the U.S. and globally as an alternative transportation fuel for environmental, geopolitical, and economic reasons. Much debate surrounds the effectiveness of these policies as well as the overall net environmental effect of increased biofuels use. In the U.S., recent studies have shown that the Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) Program, overall, may not have been the leading driver of the ethanol industry from 2005 to 2020, contrary to common perception. Similar scrutiny has not been applied to biodiesel. Here, this study uses the Bioenergy Scenario Model, a well-vetted system dynamics model, to retrospectively apportion historical biodiesel production between the RFS Program and other potentially influential drivers, such as the economics of biodiesel vs. diesel, the Biodiesel Tax Credit (BTC), California's Low Carbon Fuel Standard, and other factors. From 2002 to 2020 about 36% of biodiesel production can be attributed to the RFS Program, 35% to the BTC, and the rest to other factors. Thus, the overall effect of the RFS Program appears much larger on biodiesel than on corn ethanol. The finding that the same policy may have very disparate effects on different biofuels helps inform the design of future policies on biofuels.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Tracing and Forecasting Metabolic Indices of Cancer Patients Using Patient-Specific Deep Learning Models

We develop a patient-specific dynamical system model from the time series data of the cancer patient’s metabolic panel taken during the period of cancer treatment and recovery. The model consists of a pair of stacked long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural networks and a fully connected neural network in each unit. It is intended to be used by physicians to trace back and look forward at the patient’s metabolic indices, to identify potential adverse events, and to make short-term predictions. When the model is used in making short-term predictions, the relative error in every index is less than 10% in the L ∞ norm and less than 6.3% in the L 1 norm in the validation process. Once a master model is built, the patient-specific model can be calibrated through transfer learning. As an example, we obtain patient-specific models for four more cancer patients through transfer learning, which all exhibit reduced training time and a comparable level of accuracy. This study demonstrates that this modeling approach is reliable and can deliver clinically acceptable physiological models for tracking and forecasting patients’ metabolic indices.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Deep decarbonization and U.S. biofuels production: a coordinated analysis with a detailed structural model and an integrated multisectoral model

Scenarios for deep decarbonization involve biomass for biofuels, biopower, and bioproducts, and they often include negative emissions via carbon capture and storage or utilization. However, critical questions remain about the feasibility of rapid growth to high levels of biomass utilization, given biomass and land availability as well as historical growth rates of the biofuel industry. We address these questions through a unique coordinated analysis and comparison of carbon pricing effects on biomass utilization growth in the United States using a multisectoral integrated assessment model, the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), and a biomass-to-biofuels system dynamics model, the Bioenergy Scenario Model (BSM). We harmonized and varied key factors—such as carbon prices, vehicle electrification, and arable land availability—in the two models. We varied the rate of biorefinery construction, the fungibility of feedstock types across conversion processes, and policy incentives in BSM. The rate of growth in biomass deployment under a carbon price in both models is within the range of current literature. However, the reallocation of land to biomass feedstocks would need to overcome bottlenecks to achieve growth consistent with deep decarbonization scenarios. Investments as a result of near-term policy incentives can develop technology and expand capacity—reducing costs, enabling flexibility in feedstock use, and improving stability—but if biomass demand is high, these investments might not overcome land reallocation bottlenecks. Biomass utilization for deep decarbonization relies on extraordinary growth in biomass availability and industrial capacity. In this paper, we quantify and describe the potential challenges of this rapid change.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modeling COVID-19 Impacts on Prison Population

The goal of this project was to develop a unique, high-level, concept model that will (1) help examine the consequences COVID-19 has had on prison population and flow dynamics in Illinois and (2) explore (to the extent possible) how that will unfold in the short- and mid-term future. Argonne has unique expertise in dynamic systems modeling and highly specialized simulation capabilities, which will be helpful in developing such a model. The ultimate objective of this CRADA is to develop with the Illinois Public Sentencing Policy Advisory Council (SPAC) the capability to identify and understand factors and interactions associated with prison population and flow dynamics in Illinois. This understanding will then potentially lead to improvements in the allocation of various resources and services. This approach would also be useful to other states.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Decarbonization Scenarios in the United States: Comparing Biofuels Growth in Two Models - GCAM and BSM

Scenarios for deep decarbonization rely on biomass for biofuels, biopower, and bioproducts, often including negative emissions via carbon capture and storage or utilization. Despite the prominence of biomass in many deep decarbonization pathways, critical questions remain about biomass allocation, effects of transportation electrification, the pace of growth, and implications for agriculture and land use. We address these questions through a unique comparison of carbon pricing effects on the growth of biomass utilization and its effects on land use in the United States by comparing results from a multisectoral integrated assessment model, the Global Change Analysis Model [GCAM], with results from a biomass-to-biofuels system dynamics model, the Biomass Scenario Model [BSM]. We contribute to model comparison efforts by analyzing the biomass deployment needed for a scenario consistent with a "Middle of the Road" Shared Socioeconomic Pathway [SSP2] and a representative concentration pathway of 2.6 W/m2. The GCAM scenarios solve for global equilibrium conditions that are consistent with this pathway, including demands for biomass across all economic sectors and representing bioenergy with carbon capture and storage as a technology option. The BSM scenarios assess those biomass and biofuel results for the United States and identify challenges associated with that pace and amount of expansion. In the scenario analysis, we harmonize key factors such as carbon price trajectory, domestic ethanol fuel demand, ethanol blending, and arable land availability, and vary them in both models. In GCAM, we vary the carbon price, transportation electrification, ethanol blending constraints, and arable land availability inputs and the value of the carbon in land; in BSM, in addition to directly inputting certain GCAM results, we vary the maximum rate of biorefinery construction, flexibility of feedstock types across conversion processes, and policy incentives such as tax credits and renewable identification number payments. The selected carbon price trajectory results in a rapid increase in biofuel production in the United States, reaching about 9.4 EJ/year in 2060 in the highest scenario analyzed in GCAM. Results differ between the two models in timing and ultimate quantity of biomass and biofuel production. GCAM biofuel quantities generally exceed BSM amounts because CCS is applied to biofuel pathways in GCAM, and because of differences in capacity expansion and related dynamics of land allocation, biomass production, and price dynamics. These dynamics include rapid biorefinery capacity expansion in high demand cases. To satisfy this biomass demand, GCAM rapidly equilibrates land allocation, but the BSM limits the rate at which this re-allocation can occur. A further contrast with the equilibrium approach in GCAM is that the BSM represents a delay between planting and harvesting woody biomass resources. As a result of these model contrasts, feedstock costs in BSM increase more than in GCAM, and the absence of CCS in the BSM also reduces the relative economic attractiveness of biofuels production. The bottlenecks, lags, and price increases also lead to potential for volatility in feedstock price and land allocation to biomass in the BSM. GCAM has more biomass production than BSM in all scenarios, partly because of the broader, economy-wide coverage of GCAM, in contrast to BSM's exclusive focus on biofuels. In both models, trends like those of biofuels production were observed for biomass production: minimal growth without a carbon price and policy incentives, and increases with a carbon price, particularly with carbon capture and storage, because the inputs assume that biopower and biofuels decrease greenhouse gas emissions. In high policy scenarios, biomass demand is high, and the consequent high biomass prices due to the land re-allocation bottleneck in the BSM limit biofuel production even if the biorefinery capacity is expanded. However, because biomass prices do not increase as much in the low policy scenario, growth is slower and the land-reallocation bottleneck no longer dominates, such that the effect of increased capacity can be seen. Across both the models, a change in assumptions from less to more land availability increases biofuel production in both GCAM and BSM, as the upward pressure on feedstock price and volatility are both reduced.

biofuels↗
DOE OSTI2021

U.S. lithium resources from geothermal and extraction feasibility

As the demand for electric vehicles (EVs) increases, demand for lithium (Li) is expected to grow over the coming decade. To satisfy the demand for rechargeable batteries, it is imperative to devise solutions for sufficient Li production. Additionally, even though commercial Li currently comes from conventional saline salar brine and spodumene ore extractions, efforts to retrieve Li from geothermal brines are increasing in popularity. In this paper, we evaluate the United States’ potential to supply Li from geothermal brines using Systems Dynamics modeling. The main goals are to assess (1) the viability of US Li supply from geothermal brines and (2) the potential supply chain impact of extracting Li from this source. Results show that Li supply from geothermal brines could (1) reach around 4% to 8% of total US Li supply and (2) be economically viable.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Smart Charging for Electric Ride-Hailing Vehicles using Renewables: A San Francisco Case Study

Charging large fleets of electric ride-hailing vehicles (ERVs) is a complex matter that could serve different objectives: lower carbon dioxide emissions, lower monetary expenditures, or maximize solar photovoltaics (PV) energy consumption. Currently, it is unclear how each of those objectives could impact the business and performance of a ride-hailing fleet. In order to fill this gap, this article employs a dynamic transportation model: a smart charging simulation that combines agent-based, discrete-event, and system dynamic modelling by comparing the above-mentioned objectives in separate scenarios. The results show that each scenario successfully manages to shift between 34% and 87% of all load to hours of the day when the objectives of those scenarios are met. Therefore, in comparison to the baseline, smart charging can save between 5% and 26% of monthly emissions and between 4% and 57% of monthly expenditures. The solar PV scenario, however, results in the highest savings, while ensuring profitable economics via net metering in the short- as well as long term. Finally, the sensitivity analysis points to important trade-offs between several fleet performance metrics. The article concludes by giving business and policy recommendations for maximising the economic, energy and environmental efficiency of large ERV fleets.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data-Centric Approach to Capture Non-Polynomial Nonlinear Dynamics

We propose an analytical construction of observable functions in the extended dynamic mode decomposition (EDMD) algorithm. EDMD is a numerical method for approximating the spectral properties of the Koopman operator. The choice of observable functions is fundamental for applying EDMD to nonlinear problems arising in systems and control. Existing methods either start from a set of dictionary functions and look for the subset that best fits the underlying nonlinear dynamics or rely on machine learning algorithms to “learn” observable functions. Conversely, in this paper, we start from the dynamical system model and lift it through the Lie derivatives, rendering it into a polynomial form. This proposed transformation into a polynomial form is exact and provides an adequate set of observable functions. The strength of the proposed approach is its applicability to a broader class of nonlinear dynamical systems, particularly those with nonpolynomial functions and compositions thereof. Moreover, it retains the physical interpretability of the underlying dynamical system and can be readily integrated into existing numerical libraries. We demonstrate the proposed approach with an application to electric power systems. The modeled system consists of a single generator connected to an infinite bus, where nonlinear terms include sine and cosine functions. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed procedure in off-attractor nonlinear dynamics for estimation and prediction; the observable functions obtained from the proposed construction outperform methods that use dictionary functions comprising monomials or radial basis functions.

extended dynamic mode decomposition↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data Assimilation for Robust UQ Within Agent-Based Simulation on HPC Systems

Agent-based simulation provides a powerful tool for in silico system modeling. However, these simulations do not provide built-in methods for uncertainty quantification (UQ). Within these types of models a typical approach to UQ is to run multiple realizations of the model then compute aggregate statistics. This approach is limited due to the compute time required for a solution. When faced with an emerging biothreat, public health decisions need to be made quickly and solutions for integrating near real-time data with analytic tools are needed. We propose an integrated Bayesian UQ framework for agent-based models based on sequential Monte Carlo sampling. Given streaming or static data about the evolution of an emerging pathogen this Bayesian framework provides a distribution over the parameters governing the spread of a disease through a population. These estimates of the spread of a disease may be provided to public health agencies seeking to abate the spread. By coupling agent-based simulations with Bayesian modeling in a data assimilation, our proposed framework provides a powerful tool for modeling dynamical systems in silico. We propose a method which reduces model error and provides a range of realistic possible outcomes. Moreover, our method addresses two primary limitations of ABMs: the lack of UQ and an inability to assimilate data. Our proposed framework combines the flexibility of an agent-based model with UQ provided by the Bayesian paradigm in a workflow which scales well to HPC systems. We provide algorithmic details and results on a simulated outbreak with both static and streaming data.

Spannaus, Adam [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000225213657)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Heat Integration Optimization and Dynamic Modeling Investigation for Advancing the Coal-Direct Chemical Looping Process

The purpose of the project is to address the optimization and startup operation of a modular coal direct chemical looping (CDCL) combustion system integrated with a steam cycle for power generation to reduce the risks involved in further scale-up of the technology. The modular reactor design of the CDCL process provides flexibility in the fabrication of the reactor and in its operating capacity (i.e. turndown ratio) at the cost of a more complex heat exchange network (HEN) design and integration. To address the technology gaps and advance the efficiency and economic feasibility of the CDCL technology, the project will perform a detailed and comprehensive analysis of the integration of a modular CDCL reactor system and a steam cycle system under both static and transient conditions via HEN process performance simulations and system dynamic modeling, respectively. The scope of work consists of 1) Experimental and computational studies of the CDCL combustor reactor 2) Comprehensive static (i.e. steady-state) system HEN design analysis in CDCL 550 MWe commercial unit for power generation and 3) Dynamic modeling of site specific design of 10MWe CDCL large pilot plant. The project team has successfully developed and validated a kinetic model for the oxidation of oxygen carriers in the combustor using the unreacted shrinking core model (UCSM). The model is capable of capturing the oxidation kinetics of fully or partially reduced oxygen carrier particles. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model is developed to simulate the hydrodynamics, heat transfer, and chemical reaction occurring in the CDCL combustor. The model is developed in MFIX and ANSYS Fluent. Key aspects of CDCL combustor operation, including heat transfer, oxygen carrier oxidation, and the transport of oxygen carrier particles, are simulated using this CFD model. The HEN for a commercial scale 550 MWe CDCL power plant is simulated and optimized using ASPEN Plus. Practical design considerations are incorporated based on industrial experiences. The performance and cost for the commercial CDCL plant is updated based on these analyses. A dynamic model for the 10 MWe CDCL pilot plant is developed in ProTRAX simulation software. The model is based on the pilot plant design developed in project DE-FE0027654 “10 MWe CDCL Large Pilot Plang – Pre-FEED Study” and the steam cycle data obtained from Dover Light & Power plant. The transient behaviors during pilot plant load variation are simulated using the dynamic model.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗