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DOE OSTI2016

Evaluating agricultural trade-offs in the age of sustainable development

Here, a vibrant, resilient and productive agricultural sector is fundamental to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. Bringing about such a transformation requires optimizing a range of agronomic, environmental and socioeconomic outcomes from agricultural systems – from crop yields, to biodiversity, to human nutrition. However, these outcomes are not independent of each other – they interact in both positive and negative ways, creating the potential for synergies and trade-offs. Consequently, transforming the agricultural sector for the age of sustainable development requires tracking these interactions, assessing if objectives are being achieved and allowing for adaptive management within the diverse agricultural systems that make up global agriculture. This paper reviews the field of agricultural trade-off analysis, which has emerged to better understand these interactions – from field to farm, region to continent. Taking a “cradle-to-grave” approach, we distill agricultural trade-off analysis into four steps: characterizing the decision setting and identifying the context-specific indicators needed to assess agricultural sustainability, selecting the methods for generating indicator values across different scales, deciding on the means of evaluating and communicating the trade-off options with stakeholders and decision-makers, and improving uptake of trade-off analysis outputs by decision-makers. Given the breadth of the Sustainable Development Goals and the importance of agriculture to many of them, we assess notions of human well-being beyond income or direct health concerns (e.g. related to gender, equality, nutrition), as well as diverse environmental indicators ranging from soil health to biodiversity to climate forcing. Looking forward, areas of future work include integrating the four steps into a single modeling platform and connecting tools across scales and disciplines to facilitate trade-off analysis. Likewise, enhancing the policy relevance of agricultural trade-off analysis requires improving scientist-stakeholder engagement in the research process. Only then can this field proactively address trade-off issues that are integral to sustainably intensifying local and global agriculture – a critical step toward successfully implementing the Sustainable Development Goals.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Strategic Trade Atlas 2014-2018. Country- and Commodity-Based Views

A Strategic Trade Atlas was developed to promote understanding of global trade flows of strategic goods, i.e., goods of militarily strategic value, including dual-use goods. This Atlas provides macroscopic graphical representations of global trade flows classified under Harmonized System (HS) codes associated by the World Customs Organization with strategic commodities. The profiles provide information rich representations of strategic commodity-related imports and exports classified under these HS codes, based on data originally reported to and made publicly available by the United Nations Statistical Division, then processed to reconcile trade asymmetries by the Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales. This and other high quality, statistically relevant data sources exist, but are largely untapped resources for strategic trade control purposes. Efforts to promote and facilitate use of trade data should enhance the effectiveness and efficiency of strategic trade control efforts.

strategic trade, world customs organization, trade↗

DOE OSTI2021

Strategic Trade Atlas 2015-2019: Country- and Commodity-Based Views

strategic trade, world customs organization, trade↗

DOE OSTI2015

Differences between nonprecipitating tropical and trade wind marine shallow cumuli

In this study, marine nonprecipitating cumulus topped boundary layers (CTBLs) observed in a tropical and in a trade wind region are contrasted based on their cloud macrophysical, dynamical, and radiative structures. Data from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) observational site previously operating at Manus Island, Papua New Guinea, and data collected during the deployment of ARM Mobile Facility at the island of Graciosa, in the Azores, were used in this study. The tropical marine CTBLs were deeper, had higher surface fluxes and boundary layer radiative cooling, but lower wind speeds compared to their trade wind counterparts. The radiative velocity scale was 50%-70% of the surface convective velocity scale at both locations, highlighting the prominent role played by radiation in maintaining turbulence in marine CTBLs. Despite greater thicknesses, the chord lengths of tropical cumuli were on average lower than those of trade wind cumuli, and as a result of lower cloud cover, the hourly averaged (cloudy and clear) liquid water paths of tropical cumuli were lower than the trade wind cumuli. At both locations ~70% of the cloudy profiles were updrafts, while the average amount of updrafts near cloud base stronger than 1 m s –1 was ~22% in tropical cumuli and ~12% in the trade wind cumuli. The mean in-cloud radar reflectivity within updrafts and mean updraft velocity was higher in tropical cumuli than the trade wind cumuli. Despite stronger vertical velocities and a higher number of strong updrafts, due to lower cloud fraction, the updraft mass flux was lower in the tropical cumuli compared to the trade wind cumuli. The observations suggest that the tropical and trade wind marine cumulus clouds differ significantly in their macrophysical and dynamical structures

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2013

The impact of trade costs on rare earth exports : a stochastic frontier estimation approach.

The study develops a novel stochastic frontier modeling approach to the gravity equation for rare earth element (REE) trade between China and its trading partners between 2001 and 2009. The novelty lies in differentiating between behind the border' trade costs by China and the implicit beyond the border costs' of China's trading partners. Results indicate that the significance level of the independent variables change dramatically over the time period. While geographical distance matters for trade flows in both periods, the effect of income on trade flows is significantly attenuated, possibly capturing the negative effects of financial crises in the developed world. Second, the total export losses due to behind the border' trade costs almost tripled over the time period. Finally, looking at implicit beyond the border' trade costs, results show China gaining in some markets, although it is likely that some countries are substituting away from Chinese REE exports.

Sanyal, Prabuddha↗

NASA NTRS1991

Space Transfer Vehicle Concepts and Requirements Study. Volume 2, Book 2: System and Program Requirements Trade Studies

During the 90-day study, support was provided to NASA in defining a point-of-departure space transfer vehicle (STV). The resulting STV concept was performance optimized with a two-stage LTV/LEV configuration. Appendix A reports on the effort during this period of the study. From the end of the 90-day study until the March Interim Review, effort was placed on optimizing the two-stage vehicle approach identified in the 90-day effort. After the March Interim Review, the effort was expanded to perform a full architectural trade study with the intent of developing a decision database to support STV system decisions in response to changing SEI infrastructure concepts. Several of the architecture trade studies were combined in a System Architecture Trade Study. In addition to this trade, system optimization/definition trades and analyses were completed and some special topics were addressed. Program- and system-level trade study and analyses methodologies and results are presented in this section. Trades and analyses covered in this section are: (1) a system architecture trade study; (2) evolution; (3) safety and abort considerations; (4) STV as a launch vehicle upper stage; and (5) optimum crew and cargo split.

Weber, Gary A.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Grayscale/resolution trade-off for text: Model predictions and psychophysical results for letter confusion and letter discrimination

In a series of papers presented in 1994, we examined the grayscale/resolution trade-off for natural images displayed on devices with discrete pixellation, such as AMLCD's. In the present paper we extend this study by examining the grayscale/resolution trade-off for text images on discrete-pixel displays. Halftoning in printing is an example of the grayscale/resolution trade-off. In printing, spatial resolution is sacrificed to produce grayscale. Another example of this trade-off is the inherent low-pass spatial filter of a CRT, caused by the point-spread function of the electron beam in the phosphor layer. On a CRT, sharp image edges are blurred by this inherent low-pass filtering, and the block noise created by spatial quantization is greatly reduced. A third example of this trade-off is text anti-aliasing, where grayscale is used to improve letter shape, size and location when rendered at a low spatial resolution. There are additional implications for display system design from the grayscale/resolution trade-off. For example, reduced grayscale can reduce system costs by requiring less complexity in the framestore, allowing the use of lower cost drivers, potentially increasing data transfer rates in the image subsystem, and simplifying the manufacturing processes that are used to construct the active matrix for AMLCD (active-matrix liquid-crystal display) or AMTFEL (active-matrix thin-film electroluminescent) devices. Therefore, the study of these trade-offs is important for display designers and manufacturing and systems engineers who wish to create the highest performance, lowest cost device possible. Our strategy for investigating this trade-off is to generate a set of simple test images, manipulate grayscale and resolution, predict discrimination performance using the ViDEOS(Sarnoff) Human Vision Model, conduct an empirical study of discrimination using psychophysical procedures, and verify the computational results using the psychophysical results.

Gille, Jennifer↗

DOE OSTI2022

The impact of agricultural trade approaches on global economic modeling

Future socioeconomic and climate scenarios have been explored using integrated assessment models (IAMs) to understand interactions between human development and global environmental change in the long run. However, differences in trade modeling approaches are an important source of uncertainty in the assessments, particularly for regional projections. Here, we explore the critical role of trade modeling in assessing the potential future of global agroeconomics and terrestrial carbon emissions with a well-established IAM, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). We update the crop trade modeling framework in GCAM from a Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek (HOV) structure with integrated world markets (IWM) to a newly developed logit-based Armington approach with segmented regional markets (SRM). The updates make it possible to study the sensitivity of model projections of future agroeconomics and terrestrial carbon emissions to assumptions of the state and magnitude of global market integration. Our results demonstrate that assuming full global market integration, represented by homogeneous product modeling, neglecting economic geography, and excluding margins and tariffs, could lead to lower cropland use (i.e., by 115 million hectares globally) and terrestrial carbon fluxes (i.e., by 25%) by the end of the century. However, the results are highly heterogeneous across regions with more pronounced regional trade responses driven by global market integration. Our study highlights the critical role of trade modeling around product differentiation, economic geography, and regional trade parameterization in global economic or integrated assessment modeling. The results also imply that further reconciliations in trade model approaches could improve the convergence of regional results among models in model intercomparison studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Land use for bioenergy: Synergies and trade-offs between sustainable development goals

Bioenergy aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and contribute to meeting global climate change mitigation targets. Nevertheless, several sustainability concerns are associated with bioenergy, especially related to the impacts of using land for dedicated energy crop production. Cultivating energy crops can result in synergies or trade-offs between GHG emission reductions and other sustainability effects depending on context-specific conditions. Using the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) framework, the main synergies and trade-offs associated with land use for dedicated energy crop production were identified. Furthermore, the context-specific conditions (i.e., biomass feedstock, previous land use, climate, soil type and agricultural management) which affect those synergies and trade-offs were also identified. The most recent literature was reviewed and a pairwise comparison between GHG emission reduction (SDG 13) and other SDGs was carried out. A total of 427 observations were classified as either synergy (170), trade-off (176), or no effect (81). Most synergies with environmentally-related SDGs, such as water quality and biodiversity conservation, were observed when perennial crops were produced on arable land, pasture or marginal land in the ‘cool temperate moist’ climate zone and ‘high activity clay’ soils. Most trade-offs were related to food security and water availability. Previous land use and feedstock type are more impactful in determining synergies and trade-offs than climatic zone and soil type. This study highlights the importance of considering context-specific conditions in evaluating synergies and trade-offs and their relevance for developing appropriate policies and practices to meet worldwide demand for bioenergy in a sustainable manner.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Optimal Transactive Energy Trading of Electric Vehicle Charging Stations With On-Site PV Generation in Constrained Power Distribution Networks

This paper presents a two-level transactive energy market framework, that enables energy trading among electric vehicle charging stations (EVCSs). At the lower level, the discharging capability of EVs and on-site PV generation are leveraged by individual EVCS for participating in the transactive trading with their peers. Once the lower-level trading is completed, EVCSs trade energy at the upper level through the power grid network managed by the distribution system operator (DSO). The upper-level market is cleared while satisfying the power distribution network constraints. A cooperative game-based model is proposed to model the energy trading among EVCSs. To this end, the asymmetric Nash bargaining method is applied to allocate the grand coalition's payoff to each EVCS at the upper-level market, while a weighted proportional allocation method is used to allocate individual EVCS's payoff to its respective EVs at the lower-level market. In this work, the upper-level market formulation is further decomposed into two subproblems representing an energy scheduling and trading subproblem which maximizes EVCS payoffs, and a bargaining subproblem which allocates EVCS payoffs. The effectiveness of the proposed framework for incentivizing transactive trades among EVs and EVCSs is validated in case studies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Tigers at a crossroads: Shedding light on the role of Bangladesh in the illegal trade of this iconic big cat

Abstract Unsustainable wildlife trade is a major threat to many species, but quantifying trade remains challenging, as seizure data provides an incomplete understanding. For this reason, integrating multiple types of information, including interviews with actors involved in trade, is crucial if we are to understand the problem better. Hence, in this study, we digitized Bangladesh Forest Department tiger seizure records to identify trade routes and interviewed 163 individuals involved in trafficking tigers through Bangladesh's air, sea and land ports, including poachers, smugglers, and traders. We identified six ports used to import tigers, 14 ports used for tiger export and three ports showing bi‐directional trade. Elite Bangladeshis were the most important consumer group, and tigers were sourced from populations in NE India, Myanmar and Bangladesh Sundarbans to supply domestic demand. Tiger products were exported to 14 countries, including seven G20 nations, with Bangladeshi expatriates as the consumer group in three countries (United Kingdom, Germany and Qatar). Rising economic development in Bangladesh over the last decade, combined with deep‐rooted cultural ties to tiger consumption, has led to a rise in domestic demand. Additionally, rapid growth in international transport links has increased smuggling and connected local traders with global markets, increasing the complexity of global trade. These findings suggest Bangladesh is poised to play a pivotal role in tiger conservation over the next decade, requiring strong national strategies to reduce trade opportunities, disrupt networks and weaken demand.

Uddin, Nasir↗

NASA NTRS1983

Advanced Platform Systems Technology study. Volume 2: Trade study and technology selection

Three primary tasks were identified which include task 1-trade studies, task 2-trade study comparison and technology selection, and task 3-technology definition. Task 1 general objectives were to identify candidate technology trade areas, determine which areas have the highest potential payoff, define specific trades within the high payoff areas, and perform the trade studies. In order to satisfy these objectives, a structured, organized approach was employed. Candidate technology areas and specific trades were screened using consistent selection criteria and considering possible interrelationships. A data base comprising both manned and unmanned space platform documentation was used as a source of system and subsystem requirements. When requirements were not stated in the data base documentation, assumptions were made and recorded where necessary to characterize a particular spacecraft system. The requirements and assumptions were used together with the selection criteria to establish technology advancement goals and select trade studies. While both manned and unmanned platform data were used, the study was focused on the concept of an early manned space station.

Source record↗

DOE OSTI2021

Drought legacies mediated by trait trade‐offs in soil microbiomes

Abstract Soil microbiomes play a key role in driving biogeochemical cycles of the Earth system. As drought frequency and intensity increase due to climate change, soil microbes and the processes they control will be impacted. Even after a drought ends, microbiomes and other systems take time to recover and may display a memory of previous climate conditions. Still, the mechanisms involved in these legacy effects remain unclear, making it difficult to predict climate and biogeochemical rates in the future. Here, we used a trait‐based microbiome model (DEMENTpy) to implement trade‐off‐mediated mechanisms that may lead to drought legacy effects on litter decomposition. Trade‐offs were assumed to follow the Y‐A‐S framework that defines three primary life‐history strategies of microorganisms: high growth Yield, resource Acquisition, and Stress tolerance. We represented cellular trade‐offs between osmolytes required for drought tolerance and investment in enzymes involved in litter decomposition. Simulations were run under varying levels of drought severity and dispersal. With high levels of dispersal, no legacy effects were predicted by DEMENTpy following drought. With limited dispersal, severe drought resulted in a persistent legacy of altered community‐level traits and reduced litter decomposition. Moderate drought resulted in a transient legacy that disappeared after two years, consistent with recent empirical observations in Southern California ecosystems. These results imply that greater movement along the trade‐off between enzyme investment and osmolyte production resulted in stronger legacy effects. More generally, factors that shift the position of a microbiome in YAS space may alter the legacy outcome following drought. Our trait‐based modeling study motivates additional empirical measurements to quantify YAS traits and trade‐offs that are needed to make accurate predictions of soil microbiome resilience and functioning. Also, our study illustrates an emerging approach for representing trait trade‐offs in microbiomes and vegetation that dictate ecosystem responses to drought and other environmental perturbations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2016

Reserves and Trade Jointly Determine Exposure to Food Supply Shocks

While a growing proportion of global food consumption is obtained through international trade, there is an ongoing debate on whether this increased reliance on trade benefits or hinders food security, and specifically, the ability of global food systems to absorb shocks due to local or regional losses of production. This paper introduces a model that simulates the short-term response to a food supply shock originating in a single country, which is partly absorbed through decreases in domestic reserves and consumption, and partly transmitted through the adjustment of trade flows. By applying the model to publicly-available data for the cereals commodity group over a 17 year period, we find that differential outcomes of supply shocks simulated through this time period are driven not only by the intensification of trade, but as importantly by changes in the distribution of reserves. Our analysis also identifies countries where trade dependency may accentuate the risk of food shortages from foreign production shocks; such risk could be reduced by increasing domestic reserves or importing food from a diversity of suppliers that possess their own reserves. This simulation-based model provides a framework to study the short-term, nonlinear and out-of-equilibrium response of trade networks to supply shocks, and could be applied to specific scenarios of environmental or economic perturbations.

supply↗

NASA NTRS2018

Identifying the Community Structure of the Food-Trade International Multi-Network

Achieving international food security requires improved understanding of how international trade networks connect countries around the world through the import-export flows of food commodities. The properties of international food trade networks are still poorly documented, especially from a multi-network perspective. In particular, nothing is known about the multi-network's community structure. Here we find that the individual crop-specific layers of the multi-network have densely connected trading groups, a consistent characteristic over the period 2001-2011. Further, the multi-network is characterized by low variability over this period but with substantial heterogeneity across layers in each year. In particular, the layers are mostly assortative: more-intensively connected countries tend to import from and export to countries that are themselves more connected. We also fit econometric models to identify social, economic and geographic factors explaining the probability that any two countries are co-present in the same community. Our estimates indicate that the probability of country pairs belonging to the same food trade community depends more on geopolitical and economic factors-such as geographical proximity and trade-agreement co-membership-than on country economic size and/or income. These community-structure findings of the multi-network are especially valuable for efforts to understand past and emerging dynamics in the global food system, especially those that examine potential 'shocks' to global food trade.

complex networks↗

DOE OSTI2024

Optimal environmental and economic performance trade-offs for fifth generation district heating and cooling network topologies with waste heat recovery

Network topology greatly influences both the economic and environmental performance of fifth generation district heating and cooling (5GDHC) systems. In this study the optimal trade-offs between the environmental and economic performance of 5GDHC network topologies for a five-building district with waste heat recovery were explored. A life cycle assessment method was used to calculate the total life cycle CO 2 emissions (LCCO2) associated with the installation and operation of various network topologies. Twelve months of empirical data from a data center cooling system were analyzed to assess its suitability for integration into a 5GDHC system. The most suitable method for utilizing this waste heat was selected based on the ambient loop warm pipe setpoint, waste heat temperature, and district energy system configuration. A multi-objective optimization algorithm was used to select the 5GDHC network topology that provided the optimal trade-off between LCCO2 and life cycle cost (LCC). A trade-off parameter was employed to weigh the importance of each objective in the selection process. The results showed waste heat from the data center was suitable for integration into the 5GDHC system due to its availability and consistent temperature profile. When return temperatures of 25 °C or higher were available from the liquid-cooled system, direct pre-heating of the ambient loop warm pipe was found to be the most effective waste heat integration method. The selection of the network topology that provided the optimal trade-off between LCCO2 and LCC (optimal trade-off topology) was highly dependent on factors such as fuel prices, CO 2 prices, electricity CO 2 emissions factors, availability of waste heat, embodied CO 2 emissions associated with network installation and network infrastructure costs. Optimal trade-off topologies produced substantial LCCO2 reductions relative to corresponding LCC increases. LCCO2 reduction to LCC increase ratios from 5.78 to 117.79 were identified with CO 2 offset costs ranging from 4.77 to 60.08 ($/tCO 2 e).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Bacterial population-level trade-offs between drought tolerance and resource acquisition traits impact decomposition

Microbes drive fundamental ecosystem processes, such as decomposition. Environmental stressors are known to affect microbes, their fitness, and the ecosystem functions that they perform; yet, understanding the causal mechanisms behind this influence has been difficult. We used leaf litter on soil surface as a model in situ system to assess changes in bacterial genomic traits and decomposition rates for 18 months with drought as a stressor. We hypothesized that genome-scale trade-offs due to investment in stress tolerance traits under drought reduce the capacity for bacterial populations to carry out decomposition, and that these population-level trade-offs scale up to impact emergent community traits, thereby reducing decomposition rates. We observed drought tolerance mechanisms that were heightened in bacterial populations under drought, identified as higher gene copy numbers in metagenome-assembled genomes. A subset of populations under drought had reduced carbohydrate-active enzyme genes that suggested—as a trade-off—a decline in decomposition capabilities. These trade-offs were driven by community succession and taxonomic shifts as distinct patterns appeared in populations. We show that trait–trade-offs in bacterial populations under drought could scale up to reduce overall decomposition capabilities and litter decay rates. Using a trait-based approach to assess the population ecology of soil bacteria, we demonstrate genome-level trade-offs in response to drought with consequences for decomposition rates.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2012

Development of a novel ArcCHECK{sup Trade-Mark-Sign} insert for routine quality assurance of VMAT delivery including dose calculation with inhomogeneities

Purpose: To design a versatile, nonhomogeneous insert for the dose verification phantom ArcCHECK{sup Trade-Mark-Sign} (Sun Nuclear Corp., FL) and to demonstrate its usefulness for the verification of dose distributions in inhomogeneous media. As an example, we demonstrate it can be used clinically for routine quality assurance of two volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT) systems for lung stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT): SmartArc{sup Registered-Sign} (Pinnacle{sup 3}, Philips Radiation Oncology Systems, Fitchburg, WI) and RapidArc{sup Registered-Sign} (Eclipse{sup Trade-Mark-Sign }, Varian Medical Systems, Palo Alto, CA). Methods: The cylindrical detector array ArcCHECK{sup Trade-Mark-Sign} has a retractable homogeneous acrylic insert. In this work, we designed and manufactured a customized heterogeneous insert with densities that simulate soft tissue, lung, bone, and air. The insert offers several possible heterogeneity configurations and multiple locations for point dose measurements. SmartArc{sup Registered-Sign} and RapidArc{sup Registered-Sign} plans for lung SBRT were generated and copied to ArcCHECK{sup Trade-Mark-Sign} for each inhomogeneity configuration. Dose delivery was done on a Varian 2100 ix linac. The evaluation of dose distributions was based on gamma analysis of the diode measurements and point doses measurements at different positions near the inhomogeneities. Results: The insert was successfully manufactured and tested with different measurements of VMAT plans. Dose distributions measured with the homogeneous insert showed gamma passing rates similar to our clinical results ({approx}99%) for both treatment-planning systems. Using nonhomogeneous inserts decreased the passing rates by up to 3.6% in the examples studied. Overall, SmartArc{sup Registered-Sign} plans showed better gamma passing rates for nonhomogeneous measurements. The discrepancy between calculated and measured point doses was increased up to 6.5% for the nonhomogeneous insert depending on the inhomogeneity configuration and measurement location. SmartArc{sup Registered-Sign} and RapidArc{sup Registered-Sign} plans had similar plan quality but RapidArc{sup Registered-Sign} plans had significantly higher monitor units (up to 70%). Conclusions: A versatile, nonhomogeneous insert was developed for ArcCHECK{sup Trade-Mark-Sign} for an easy and quick evaluation of dose calculations with nonhomogeneous media and for comparison of different treatment planning systems. The device was tested for SmartArc{sup Registered-Sign} and RapidArc{sup Registered-Sign} plans for lung SBRT, showing the uncertainties of dose calculations with inhomogeneities. The new insert combines the convenience of the ArcCHECK{sup Trade-Mark-Sign} and the possibility of assessing dose distributions in inhomogeneous media.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗