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Parallelization of the Coupled Earthquake Model

This Web-based tsunami simulation system allows users to remotely run a model on JPL s supercomputers for a given undersea earthquake. At the time of this reporting, predicting tsunamis on the Internet has never happened before. This new code directly couples the earthquake model and the ocean model on parallel computers and improves simulation speed. Seismometers can only detect information from earthquakes; they cannot detect whether or not a tsunami may occur as a result of the earthquake. When earthquake-tsunami models are coupled with the improved computational speed of modern, high-performance computers and constrained by remotely sensed data, they are able to provide early warnings for those coastal regions at risk. The software is capable of testing NASA s satellite observations of tsunamis. It has been successfully tested for several historical tsunamis, has passed all alpha and beta testing, and is well documented for users.

Block, Gary↗

Consequences of impacts of small asteroids and comets with Earth

The fragmentation of a small asteroid in the atmosphere greatly increases its cross sections for aerodynamic braking and energy dissipation. At a typical impact velocity of 22 km/s, the atmosphere absorbs more than half the kinetic energy of stony meteoroids with diameters, D(sub m), less than 220 m and iron meteoroids with D(sub m) less than 80 m. The corresponding diameter for comets with impact velocity 50 km/s is D(sub m) less than 1600 m. Most of the atmospheric energy dissipation occurs in a fraction of a scale height, so large meteors appear to 'explode' or 'flare' at the end of their visible paths. This dissipation of energy in the atmosphere protects the earth from direct impact damage (e.g., craters), but it produces a blast wave that can do considerable damage. The area of destruction around the impact point in which the over-pressure in the blast wave exceeds 4 lb/sq in = 2.8 x 10(exp 5) dynes/cu cm, which is enough to knock over trees and destroy buildings, increases rapidly from zero for chondritic meteoroids less than 56 m in diameter (15 megatons) to about 200 sq km for those 80 m in diameter (48 megatons); the probable diameter of the tunguska impactor of 1908 is about 80 m. Crater formation and earthquakes are not significant in land impacts by stony asteroids less than about 200 m in diameter because of the air protection. A tsunami is probably the most devastating type of damage for asteroids 200 m to 1 km in diameter. An impact by an asteroid this size anywhere in the Atlantic would devastate coastal areas on both sides of the ocean. An asteroid a few kilometers across would produce a tsunami that would reach the foothills of the Appalachian Mountains in the upper half of the East Coast of the United States. Most of Florida is protected from a tsunami by the gradual slope of the ocean off its coast, which causes most of the tsunami energy to be reflected back into the Atlantic. The atmosphere plume produced by asteroids with diameters exceeding about 120 m cannot be contained by the atmosphere, so this bubble of high-temperature gas forms a new layer on top of the atmosphere. The dust entrapped in this hot gas is likely to have optical depths exceeding tau = 10 for asteroids with diameters exceeding about 0.5 to 1 km. The optical flux from asteroids 60 m or more in diameter is enough to ignite pine forests. However, the blast wave from an impacting asteroid goes beyond the radius in which the fire starts. The blast wave tends to blow out the fire, so it is likely that the impact will char the forest, as at Tunguska, but the impact will not produce a sustained fire. Because comets dissipate their energy much higher in the atmosphere than asteroids, they illuminate a much larger region and their blast wave is weaker. So they are much more effective in producing large fires. This suggests that the KT impactor was a comet rather than an asteroid.

Hills, J. G.↗