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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Intrinsic Century-Scale Variability in Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures and Their Influence on Western US Hydroclimate

Hydroclimate variability of the southwest United States (SWUS) is influenced by the tropical Pacific Ocean, particularly through the teleconnection to El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is expected to be altered by climate change. Natural variability in this teleconnection has not been robustly quantified, complicating the detection of anthropogenic climate change. Here, we use a linear inverse model (LIM) to quantify natural variability in the ENSO-SWUS teleconnection. The LIM yields realistic teleconnection patterns with century-scale variability comparable to simulations from the Last Millennium Ensemble project and the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5 and 6. The variability quantified by the LIM illuminates two aspects of our understanding of ENSO and its impacts: the inherent statistics of the observable system can produce century-long periods with a wide range of correlations to SWUS hydroclimate, including nonsignificant correlations, and thus that detecting changes in ENSO-related hydroclimate variability is challenging in a changing climate.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Relative effect of anthropogenic warming and natural climate variability to changes in Compound drought and heatwaves

Compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) events can be influenced by large scale teleconnections and anthropogenic warming, leading to severe socio-economic impacts across various climate regions. Here, the relative influence of six different teleconnection patterns and anthropogenic global warming on the global CDHW occurrences is quantified systematically using the instrumental data period, 1982–2016. The results from the study suggest a substantial increase in the CDHW events (1–5 events per year) across various parts of the globe at the beginning of 21st century (2000–2016). A Bayesian approach is implemented to identify the most vulnerable climate regions based on the degree of susceptibility of heatwaves (DSHW) towards drought. As such, top ten most vulnerable regions are selected based on the DSHW magnitude, and a partial correlation analysis is performed to select the natural and anthropogenic drivers of CDHW in those regions, separately. A logistic regression model is then used to determine significant changes in the odds of CDHW due to changes in the selected drivers that suggest a significantly positive, and multiplicative effect of anthropogenic global warming in the top ten most vulnerable climate regions. Finally, the same logistic regression model, integrated with an analytical framework, is applied to determine the relative influence of anthropogenic global warming on the changes in odds of CDHW for the future, 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming limits. Finally, the results suggest that relative to the 2 °C global warming, constraining to the 1.5 °C global warming limit may conduce about 17-fold reduction in the odds of CDHW in the most vulnerable climate region, East Asia, 5–8-fold reduction in Western North America, Northern Australia, Central North America, Central Europe, South Asia, and the Mediterranean region, and 3–4-fold reduction in Northeastern Brazil, Eastern North America, and West Asia.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Performance evaluation of CMIP6 models on the Arctic-Siberian Plain teleconnection affecting the East Asian heat waves

The frequency and intensity of summer heat waves in East Asia have increased sharply in recent decades, significantly impacting public health and the economy. The Arctic-Siberian Plain (ASP) teleconnection pattern has been identified as a key driver, with ASP warming amplifying atmospheric circulation patterns conducive to extreme temperatures. This study evaluates the ability of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 6 models to simulate the ASP pattern across interannual variability (IAV) and intra-seasonal variability (ISV) timescales using the Common Basis Function method. The multi-model mean shows statistically significant pattern correlations with ERA5 reanalysis, with correlation coefficients of 0.90 and 0.99 for IAV and ISV, respectively. While the ASP pattern is generally well captured, models exhibit substantial inter-model diversity in the intensity and position of anticyclonic anomalies over the ASP and East Asia. Models with ASP pattern variability similar to reanalysis better reproduce extreme East Asian temperatures, whereas those over- or underestimating ASP variability exhibit lower skill. These performance differences are related to differences in simulating key variables associated with the development of the ASP pattern. Our findings highlight the role of the ASP pattern in modulating extreme heat events, as models with improved ASP simulations align more closely with observed temperature extremes. Refining ASP representations in models could enhance seasonal heat wave predictions, improving climate adaptation strategies.

Arctic-Siberian Plain (ASP)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Revisiting ENSO and IOD Contributions to Australian Precipitation

Tropical modes of variability, such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), exert a strong influence on the interannual variability of Australian precipitation. Nevertheless, commonly used indices of ENSO and IOD variability display significant co-variability that prevents a robust quantification of the independent contribution of each mode to precipitation anomalies. This co-variability issue is often addressed by statistically removing ENSO or IOD variability from the precipitation field before calculating teleconnection patterns. However, by performing a suite of coupled and uncoupled modeling experiments in which either ENSO or IOD variability is physically removed, we show that ENSO-only-driven precipitation patterns computed by statistically removing the IOD influence significantly underestimate the impact of ENSO on Australian precipitation variability. Here, inspired by this, we propose a conceptual model that allows one to effectively separate the contribution of each mode to Australian precipitation variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Phase-Locking of Tropical North Atlantic and the Contribution of ENSO

The Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) is characterized by significant interannual variability in sea surface temperature (SST), which is phase-locked to the boreal spring. In this study, the phase-locking of TNA is investigated by adopting a linear stochastic-dynamical model (SDM) using seasonally modulated TNA feedbacks together with the seasonal modulation of ENSO forcing. In the observations, the role of local TNA feedbacks and ENSO forcing in TNA phase-locking are equivalently important with both preferring the peak of TNA variability to appear in the boreal spring. Besides, the seasonal modulation of TNA feedbacks and ENSO forcing strength are both mainly controlled by thermodynamic processes. In most climate models, the contribution of ENSO on TNA phase-locking is weaker than that in observations. The strength of ENSO-related TNA phase-locking is highly correlated with the relationship between ENSO and TNA, which is mainly determined by the amplitude of ENSO and its teleconnection patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

How the Great Plains Dust Bowl drought spread heat extremes around the Northern Hemisphere

Abstract Extraordinary heat extremes occurred in the 1930s in areas of the Northern Hemisphere far from the record setting heat over the US associated with the Great Plains Dust Bowl drought. A climate model sensitivity experiment is used to identify a new mechanism involving a warm season circumglobal atmospheric teleconnection pattern that spread heat extremes over far-flung areas of the Northern Hemisphere arising from the intense heating over the desiccated Great Plains themselves. It has only been in the twenty-first century that human populations in these regions of the Northern Hemisphere have experienced heat extremes comparable to the 1930s. This demonstrates that humans influenced Northern Hemisphere temperature and heat extremes through disastrous and unprecedented regional land use practices over the Great Plains, and points to the possibility that future intense regional droughts could affect heat extremes on hemispheric scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The influence of natural variability on extreme monsoons in Pakistan

The monsoons in Pakistan have been exceptionally harsh in recent decades, resulting in extraordinary drought conditions and record flooding events. The changing characteristics of extreme events are widely attributed to climate change. However, given this region’s long history of floods and droughts, the role of natural climate variability cannot be rejected without a careful diagnosis. Here, we examine how oceanic and atmospheric variability has contributed to unusual precipitation distributions in West South Asia. Variations in sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific and northern Arabian Sea, and internal atmospheric variability related to the circumglobal teleconnection pattern and the subtropical westerly jet stream, explain more than 70% of monthly summer precipitation variability in the 21st century. Several of these forcings have co-occurred with record strength during episodes of extreme monsoons, which have exacerbated the overall effect. Climate change may have contributed to increased variability and the in-phase co-occurrences of the identified mechanisms, but further research is required to confirm any such connection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Impact of Dust-Cloud-Radiation-Precipitation Dynamical Feedback on Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Variability of the Asian Summer Monsoon in Global Variable-Resolution Simulations With MPAS-CAM5

In this study, we investigate the effects of increased dust emission from the Middle East deserts on subseasonal-to-seasonal (S₂S) variability of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM). Numerical experiments are performed using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) coupled with the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5) physics, with regional refinement at 30 km grid resolution over South Asia and the surrounding regions. Result shows that increased dust emission and transport from the Middle East/West Asia region induces a strong dust-cloud-radiation-precipitation-circulation feedback, resulting in a colder surface over the desert regions and the western Tibetan Plateau, but warmer and moister troposphere with enhanced cloudiness and precipitation over the Pakistan/Northwest India (PNWI) region. The latter changes are amplified by the dust aerosol induced Elevated Heat Pump (EHP) mechanism along the West Himalayas/Iranian Plateau foothill regions, most pronounced during May-June. During July-August, cloud radiation feedback further enhances the warming of the upper troposphere, and cooling of the land surface over the PNWI and adjacent regions over West Asia. The upper tropospheric heating and increased precipitation over PNWI spur a large-scale anomalous Rossby wavetrain and a northward displacement of the subtropical jetstream, manifesting in a contraction of the South Asian High and westward shift of the Western Pacific Subtropical High. As a result, the entire ASM precipitation-cloud system is displaced westward. Precipitation and cloudiness are intensified over northwest and western India and west Asia, but suppressed over southern and central East Asia. Analyses of the S₂S variability of the upper level vorticity balance suggests that heating by Middle East dust plays an important role in exciting, and anchoring a teleconnection pattern through interactions among dust-cloud radiation, precipitation heating over the PNWI, the development of an upper level Rossby wavetrain, and the northward shift of the boreal summer jetstream over Eurasia.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1985

Transient response to localized episodic heating in the tropics

It is generally recognized that equatorial disturbances in the lower stratosphere are excited by convective latent heat release associated with the Internal Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Recently, attention has also focused on tropical convection with regard to extratropical teleconnection patterns. Unlike equatorial waves which are trapped about the equator but propagate vertically, the latter extend well out of the tropics but are barotropic. They have been most widely discussed in connection with long-term climatological features. Both types of disturbances have been examined largely from the standpoint of steady monochromatic forcing, in the latter case zero frequency or time-mean heating. However, tropical convection as revealed by recent geostationary satellite imagery is anything but regular, surely not steady. Much of the heating variance is concentrated spatially within three localized convective centers: Indonesia, the Amazon, and the Congo. Convective activity within these regions undergoes an irregular evolution over the span of a couple of days. It involves a rather broad spectrum of spatial and temporal scales. The analysis of cloud brightness over the Eastern Atlantic and Africa suggests a characteristic time scale of 3-4 days and correlations scales in latitude and longitude of approximately 30 deg.

Salby, M. L.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Potential vorticity index

Based on the European Center For Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) First Global Atmospheric Research Program Global Experiment (FGGE) IIIb data set in the 1978 to 1979 winter, a potential vorticity (PV) index was defined as a measure of the zonally averaged, mid-latitude PV gradient on the 300 K isentropic surface in the Northern Hemisphere. The evolution of that index and its relation to teleconnection patterns of 500 mb geopotential height anomaly are studied. The results of the temporal and spatial variation of blocking and cyclogenesis in the 1978 to 1979 winter and its relation to global and local PV gradients were obtained. Complex empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analyses were performed, using the same FGGE data set for the 1978 to 1979 winter, for a representative high latitude band and mid latitude band geopotential height anomalies at 500 mb, phi sub h, phi sub m, and PV gradient at 300 K, delta(Q), at each longitude for the three month period. The focus of current research is the following: (1) to perform Fourier analyses for the first three EOF's of phi sub h, phi sub m, and delta(Q) at given latitude bands, and to find the dominant wavenumbers and frequencies which are responsible for these EOF's; (2) to compare the results from EOF and Fourier analyses which will be used to explore the relations of blocking and cyclogensis with local and global PV gradients; and (3) to study the time dependence of the local PV gradients and relate it to the PV index vacillation cycles observed in the PV index cycle.

Barcilon, Albert↗
NASA NTRS1994

Observed correlations between winter-mean tropospheric and stratospheric circulation anomalies

It is shown that interannual variability of the northern winter stratospheric flow in 1964-1993 was closely linked to large-scale circulation anomalies in the middle troposphere. Of the known tropospheric teleconnection patterns, the one having the strongest relation to the DJF (December-February) zonal-mean stratospheric flow was the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Singular value decomposition between the 500 and 50-hPa geopotential heights produced a 500-hPa structure containing elements of the NAO pattern, but including an anomaly in eastern Siberia. During this time period, the correlation of NAO-related modes to the polar lower stratosphere exceeded that of the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation.

Baldwin, Mark P.↗
NASA NTRS1999

The East Asian Jet Stream and Asian-Pacific Climate

In this study, the NASA GEOS and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses and GPCP rainfall data have been used to study the variability of the East Asian westerly jet stream and its impact on the Asian-Pacific climate, with a focus on interannual time scales. Results indicate that external forcings such as sea surface temperature (SST) and land surface processes also play an important role in the variability of the jet although this variability is strongly governed by internal dynamics. There is a close link between the jet and Asian-Pacific climate including the Asian winter monsoon and tropical convection. The atmospheric teleconnection pattern associated with the jet is different from the ENSO-related pattern. The influence of the jet on eastern Pacific and North American climate is also discussed.

Yang, Song↗
NASA NTRS2000

The East Asian Jet Stream and Asian-Pacific-American Climate

The upper-tropospheric westerly jet stream over subtropical East Asia and western Pacific, often referred to as East Asian Jet (EAJ), is an important atmospheric circulation system in the Asian-Pacific-American (APA) region during winter. It is characterized by variabilities on a wide range of time scales and exerts a strong impact on the weather and climate of the region. On the synoptic scale, the jet stream is closely linked to many phenomena such as cyclogenesis, frontogenesis, blocking, storm track activity, and the development of other atmospheric disturbances. On the seasonal time scale, the variation of the EAJ determines many characteristics of the seasonal transition of the atmospheric circulation especially over East Asia. The variabilities of the EAJ on these time scales have been relatively well documented. It has also been understood since decades ago that the interannual. variability of the EAJ is associated with many climate signals in the APA region. These signals include the persistent anomalies of the East Asian winter monsoon and the changes in diabatic heating and in the Hadley circulation. However, many questions remain for the year-to-year variabilities of the EAJ and their relation to the APA climate. For example, what is the relationship between the EAJ and El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)? Will the EAJ and ENSO play different roles in modulating the APA climate? How is the jet stream linked to the non-ENSO-related sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and to the Pacific/North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern?

Yang, Song↗
NASA NTRS1999

Wintertime East Asian Jet Stream and its Association with the Asian-Pacific-American Climate

The wintertime upper-tropospheric westerly jet stream over subtropical East Asia and western Pacific, often referred to as East Asian Jet (EAJ), is an important atmospheric circulation system in the Asian-Pacific-American (APA) region. It is characterized by variabilities on a wide range of time scales and exerts a strong impact on the weather and climate of the region. On the synoptic scale, the jet is closely linked to many phenomena such as cyclogenesis, frontogenesis, blocking, storm track activity, and the development of other atmospheric disturbances. On the seasonal time scale, the variation of the EAJ determines many characteristics of the seasonal transition of the atmospheric circulation over Asia. The variabilities of the jet on these time scales have been relatively well documented (e.g., Yeh et al. 1959, Palmen and Newton 1969; Zeng 1979). It has also been understood that the inter-annual variability of the EAJ is associated with many climate signals in the APA region. These signals include the persistent anomalies of the East Asian winter monsoon and the changes in diabatic heating and in the Hadley circulation (Bjerknes 1966; Chang and Lau 1980; Huang and Gambo 1982; Kang and Held 1986; Tao and Chen 1987; Lau et al. 1988; Yang and Webster 1990; Ding 1992; Webster and Yang 1992; Dong et al. 1999). However, many questions remain for the year-to-year variabilities of the jet and their relation to the APA climate. For example, what is the relationship between the EAJ and El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)? Will the jet and ENSO play different roles in modulating the APA climate? How is the jet linked to North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) and the Pacific/North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern? In this study, we address several issues related to the wintertime EAJ with a focus on interannual time scales. We will examine the association between the jet core and ENSO, which has always been overshadowed by the relationship between ENSO and the upper-tropospheric winds over northern extratropics of the central Pacific. We will investigate the linkage of the jet to variabilities of the Asian winter monsoon, tropical convection, and upper tropospheric wave patterns. We will also explore the relationship between the jet core and extratropical S ST with an aim at providing helpful information for improving our understanding of the connection of the EAJ to surface boundary conditions. The analysis is expected to provide information that is helpful for improving regional climate predictions.

Yang, Song↗
NASA NTRS2000

Interannual Atmospheric Oscillations and Their Gravitational Effects

Past studies have examined the effects of the interannual atmospheric oscillations (IAO), or often called teleconnection patterns, on the Earth's rotation, such as El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the quasi-biennial oscillation, and to a lesser extent the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The present study focuses on IAO's effects on the gravitational field and geocenter; the purpose is to be able to identify and isolate the contributions of each prominent IAO in relation to the total contribution of the atmosphere, in terms of their magnitudes, their geographical patterns, and their interannual time history. We use the 40-year NCEP reanalysis of the monthly, global atmospheric surface pressure field as our basic data set. The method we apply to isolate the IAOs is the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) decomposition which is widely used in meteorological investigations. We do the EOF analysis first on IAOs' seasonal signals (by "collapsing" the 40-year series into 12 mean-months for each grid point) and obtain estimates for their respective contributions. Then we remove these seasonal signals from the data to focus on the (broad-band) interannual EOFs. We examine ENSO, NAO, North Pacific Oscillation, and other less prominent IAOs that can be identified from our data set, and compute their respective contributions to the variation of global gravitational field and geocenter motion. Finally, we compare the results with the available observational data, and discuss the implications w.r.t. the upcoming space missions such as GRACE.

Chao, Benjamin F.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) Model: Application for Understanding Preciptation Processes

The global hydrological cycle is central to climate system interactions and the key to understanding their behavior. Rainfall and its associated precipitation processes are a key link in the hydrologic cycle. Fresh water provided by tropical rainfall and its variability can exert a large impact upon the structure of the upper ocean layer. In addition, approximately two-thirds of the global rain falls in the Tropics, while the associated latent heat release accounts for about three-fourths of the total heat energy for the Earth's atmosphere. Precipitation from convective cloud systems comprises a large portion of tropical heating and rainfall. Furthermore, the vertical distribution of convective latent-heat releases modulates large-scale tropical circulations (e.g., the 30-60-day intraseasonal oscillation), which, in turn, impacts midlatitude weather through teleconnection patterns such as those associated with El Nino. Shifts in these global circulations can result in prolonged periods of droughts and floods, thereby exerting a tremendous impact upon the biosphere and human habitation. And yet, monthly rainfall over the tropical oceans is still not known within a factor of two over large (5 degrees latitude by 5 degrees longitude) areas. Hence, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), a joint U.S./Japan space project, can provide a more accurate measurement of rainfall as well as estimate the four-dimensional structure of diabatic heating over the global tropics. The distributions of rainfall and inferred heating can be used to advance our understanding of the global energy and water cycle. In addition, this information can be used for global circulation and climate models for testing and improving their parameterizations.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗
NASA NTRS2001

Recurrent Interannual Climate Modes and Teleconnection Linking North America Warm Season Precipitation Anomalies to Asia Summer Monsoon Variability

In this paper, we present results showing that summertime precipitation anomalies over North America and East Asia may be linked via pan-Pacific teleconnection patterns, which are components of two dominant recurring global climate modes. The first mode (Mode-1) features an inverse relationship between rainfall anomaly over the US Midwest/central to the eastern/southeastern regions, coupled to a mid-tropospheric high-low pressure system over the northwest and southeast of the US, which regulates low level moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico to the Midwest. The regional circulation pattern appears to be a part of a global climate mode spanning Eurasia, the North Pacific, North America, and the Atlantic. This mode is associated with coherent fluctuations of jetstream variability over East Asia, and Eurasia, SST in the North Pacific and the North Atlantic. While Mode-1 is moderately correlated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), it appears to be distinct from it, with strong influences from mid-latitude or possibly from higher latitude processes. Results show that Mode-1 not only has an outstanding contribution to the great flood of 1993, it has large contribution to the US precipitation anomalies in other years. Also noted is an apparent increase in influence of Mode-1 on US summertime precipitation in the last two decades since 1977.

Lau, K. M.↗
NASA NTRS2004

ENSO Bred Vectors in Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Models

The breeding method has been implemented in the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) Coupled General Circulation Model (CGCM) with the goal of improving operational seasonal to interannual climate predictions through ensemble forecasting and data assimilation. The coupled instability as cap'tured by the breeding method is the first attempt to isolate the evolving ENSO instability and its corresponding global atmospheric response in a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM. Our results show that the growth rate of the coupled bred vectors (BV) peaks at about 3 months before a background ENSO event. The dominant growing BV modes are reminiscent of the background ENSO anomalies and show a strong tropical response with wind/SST/thermocline interrelated in a manner similar to the background ENSO mode. They exhibit larger amplitudes in the eastern tropical Pacific, reflecting the natural dynamical sensitivity associated with the presence of the shallow thermocline. Moreover, the extratropical perturbations associated with these coupled BV modes reveal the variations related to the atmospheric teleconnection patterns associated with background ENSO variability, e.g. over the North Pacific and North America. A similar experiment was carried out with the NCEP/CFS03 CGCM. Comparisons between bred vectors from the NSIPP CGCM and NCEP/CFS03 CGCM demonstrate the robustness of the results. Our results strongly suggest that the breeding method can serve as a natural filter to identify the slowly varying, coupled instabilities in a coupled GCM, which can be used to construct ensemble perturbations for ensemble forecasts and to estimate the coupled background error covariance for coupled data assimilation.

Yang, S. C.↗