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DOE OSTI2025

The XPS of pyridine: A combined theoretical and experimental analysis

A detailed analysis of the N(1s) and C(1s) X-Ray Photoelectron Spectroscopy (XPS) is made, where the measured XPS is compared with theoretical Sudden Approximation (SA) intensities and theoretical XPS Binding Energies (BEs). There is remarkably good agreement between the theoretical predictions and the measured XPS; in particular, the different full width at half maximum values for the C(1s) and N(1s) BEs are explained in terms of unresolved C(1s) BEs for the different C atoms in pyridine. Here, this work demonstrates that the combination of theory and XPS measurements can extract analysis of the XPS relevant to the molecular electronic structure. The theory used is based on fully relativistic self-consistent field solutions of the Dirac–Coulomb Hamiltonian, and the SA is used to determine relative XPS intensities.

Binding Energies (BEs)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Theoretical tools for neutrino scattering: interplay between lattice QCD, EFTs, nuclear physics, phenomenology, and neutrino event generators

Maximizing the discovery potential of increasingly precise neutrino experiments will require an improved theoretical understanding of neutrino-nucleus cross sections over a wide range of energies. Low-energy interactions are needed to reconstruct the energies of astrophysical neutrinos from supernovae bursts and search for new physics using increasingly precise measurement of coherent elastic neutrino scattering. Higher-energy interactions involve a variety of reaction mechanisms including quasi-elastic scattering, resonance production, and deep inelastic scattering that must all be included to reliably predict cross sections for energies relevant to DUNE and other accelerator neutrino experiments. Refined nuclear interaction models in these energy regimes will also be valuable for other applications, such as measurements of reactor, solar, and atmospheric neutrinos. This manuscript discusses the theoretical status, challenges, required resources, and path forward for achieving precise predictions of neutrino-nucleus scattering and emphasizes the need for a coordinated theoretical effort involved lattice QCD, nuclear effective theories, phenomenological models of the transition region, and event generators.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Plumbene: a comprehensive review of theoretical and experimental advances

Plumbene, a two-dimensional (2D) material consisting of a single layer of lead (Pb) atoms in a honeycomb lattice, stands as a pioneering addition to the elemental 2D material family. Here, this comprehensive review encapsulates the theoretical predictions and experimental advancements that underscore its potential. With properties shaped by significant spin-orbit coupling and structural buckling, plumbene offers a playground for phenomena like the quantum spin Hall effect, superconductivity, and topological phase transitions. Despite promising theoretical insights, experimental realization has encountered challenges, primarily due to high reactivity of Pb and the need for precise fabrication conditions. This paper critically examines the electronic, thermal, mechanical, and topological attributes of plumbene, alongside synthesis methods, functionalization techniques, and substrate effects. It further proposes directions for addressing synthesis challenges and integrating plumbene into advanced technologies, particularly in electronic, spintronic, and quantum computing applications. This review aims to bridge the gap between theoretical potential and experimental progress, fostering a deeper understanding of this intriguing material.

2D materials↗

DOE OSTI2022

Microstructural pattern formation during liquid metal dealloying: Phase-field simulations and theoretical analyses

In recent years, liquid metal dealloying has emerged as a promising material processing method to generate micro- and nanoscale bicontinuous or porous structures. Most previous studies focused on the experimental characterization of the dealloying process and on the properties of the dealloyed materials, leaving the theoretical study incomplete to fully understand the fundamental mechanisms of the liquid metal dealloying process. In this paper, we use theoretical models and phase-field simulations to clarify the kinetics and pattern formation during liquid metal dealloying. Our investigation starts from a theoretical analysis of the 1D dissolution of a binary precursor alloy, which reveals that the 1D dissolution process involves two regimes. In the first regime, due to the low solubility of one of the elements in the melt, it accumulates at the solid-liquid interface, which reduces the dissolution kinetics. In the second regime, the interface kinetics reaches a stationary regime where both elements of the precursor alloy dissolve into the melt. Previous works revealed that in the early dealloying stage, the dealloying front is destabilized by an interfacial spinodal decomposition, which triggers the formation of interconnected ligaments. Here we extend this line of work by proposing a linear stability analysis able to predict the initial length scale of the ligaments formed in the initial stage of the dealloying. Combining this analysis with the 1D dissolution model proposed here enables us to better understand the initial conditions (composition of the precursor alloy and the melt) leading to a planar dissolution without interface destabilization. Finally, we report a strong influence of solid-state diffusion on dealloying. Although the solid-state diffusivity is four to five orders of magnitude smaller than in the liquid phase, it is found to affect both dissolution kinetics and ligament morphologies.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

EXPERIMENTAL VALIDATION OF THEORETICAL BURST STRENGTH SOLUTION FOR DEFECT-FREE THICK-WALLED PIPES

The burst pressure of line pipes is an important strength property required in pipeline design and integrity management. Historically, the Barlow formula in conjunction with the ultimate tensile stress (UTS) of pipeline steels were utilized to estimate the burst strength of line pipes. However, the Barlow formula did not consider the plastic flow effect for ductile steels and is applicable only to thin-walled pipes. In 2006, the present author proposed a new multiaxial plastic yield theory and obtained a theoretical Zhu-Leis solution of burst strength for defect-free thin-walled pipes in term of UTS and strain hardening exponent n of pipeline steels. The Zhu-Leis solution has been validated by various burst test data for thin-walled pipelines for a wide range of steel grades from Grade B to X120. Recently, the present author extended the Zhu-Leis theory of plasticity to thick-walled pipes and obtained the Zhu-Leis solution of burst pressure for thick-walled pipes. The proposed burst pressure solution is applicable to both thin and thick-walled pipes. To experimentally validate the proposed theoretical burst pressure solution, this paper obtains a set of burst test data for three thick-walled pipes in Grade B carbon steel with a nominal diameter of 2.375 inches and three nominal wall thicknesses, resulting in D/t = 15.4, 10.9, 6.9. Through comparisons, these burst data validate the theoretical burst pressure solution for thick-walled pipes. Moreover, two additional burst test datasets collected from literature for thin and thick-walled pipes further validate the proposed burst pressure solution for both thin and thick-walled pipes.

Zhu, Xiankui↗

DOE OSTI2026

The nucleardatapy toolkit for simple access to experimental nuclear data, astrophysical observations, and theoretical predictions

Systematic comparisons across theoretical predictions for the properties of dense matter, nuclear physics data, and astrophysical observations (also called meta-analyses) are performed. Existing predictions for symmetric nuclear and neutron matter properties are considered, and they are shown in this paper as an illustration of the present knowledge. Asymmetric matter is constructed assuming the isospin asymmetry quadratic approximation. It is employed to predict the pressure at twice saturation energy-density based only on nuclear-physics constraints, and we find it compatible with the one from the gravitational-wave community. To make our meta-analysis transparent, updated in the future, and to publicly share our results, the Python toolkit nucleardatapy is described and released here. Hence, this paper accompanies nucleardatapy, which simplifies access to nuclear-physics data, including theoretical calculations, experimental measurements, and astrophysical observations. This Python toolkit is designed to easily provide data for: (i) predictions for uniform matter (from microscopic or phenomenological approaches); (ii) correlation among nuclear properties induced by experimental and theoretical constraints; (iii) measurements for finite nuclei (nuclear chart, charge radii, neutron skins or nuclear incompressibilities, etc.) and hypernuclei (single particle energies); and (iv) astrophysical observations. This toolkit provides data in a unified format for easy comparison and provides new meta-analysis tools. It will be continuously developed, and we expect contributions from the community in our endeavor.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Thermal chains and entrainment in cumulus updrafts, Part 1: Theoretical description

Recent studies have shown that cumulus updrafts often consist of a succession of discrete rising thermals with spherical vortex-like circulations. Herein, a theory is developed for why this “thermal chain” structure occurs. Theoretical expressions are obtained for a passive tracer, buoyancy, and vertical velocity in axisymmetric moist updrafts. Analysis of these expressions suggests that the thermal chain structure arises from enhanced lateral mixing associated with intrusions of dry environmental air below an updraft’s vertical velocity maximum. This dry air entrainment reduces buoyancy locally. Consequently, the updraft flow above levels of locally reduced buoyancy separates from below, leading to a breakdown of the updraft into successive discrete thermals. The range of conditions in which thermal chains exist is also analyzed from the theoretical expressions. A transition in updraft structure from isolated rising thermal, to thermal chain, to starting plume occurs with increases in updraft width, environmental relative humidity, and/or convective available potential energy. Corresponding expressions for the bulk fractional entrainment rate ε are also obtained. These expressions indicate rather complicated entrainment behavior of ascending updrafts, with local enhancement of ε up to a factor of ~2 associated with the aforementioned environmental air intrusions, consistent with recent large eddy simulation (LES) studies. These locally large entrainment rates contribute significantly to overall updraft dilution in thermal chain-like updrafts, while other regions within the updraft can remain relatively undilute. Part 2 of this study compares results from the theoretical expressions to idealized numerical simulations and LES.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Experimental and theoretical insights into the effects of pH on catalysis of bond-cleavage by the lignin peroxidase isozyme H8 from Phanerochaete chrysosporium

Abstract Background Lignin peroxidases catalyze a variety of reactions, resulting in cleavage of both β-O-4′ ether bonds and C–C bonds in lignin, both of which are essential for depolymerizing lignin into fragments amendable to biological or chemical upgrading to valuable products. Studies of the specificity of lignin peroxidases to catalyze these various reactions and the role reaction conditions such as pH play have been limited by the lack of assays that allow quantification of specific bond-breaking events. The subsequent theoretical understanding of the underlying mechanisms by which pH modulates the activity of lignin peroxidases remains nascent. Here, we report on combined experimental and theoretical studies of the effect of pH on the enzyme-catalyzed cleavage of β-O-4′ ether bonds and of C–C bonds by a lignin peroxidase isozyme H8 from Phanerochaete chrysosporium and an acid stabilized variant of the same enzyme. Results Using a nanostructure initiator mass spectrometry assay that provides quantification of bond breaking in a phenolic model lignin dimer we found that catalysis of degradation of the dimer to products by an acid-stabilized variant of lignin peroxidase isozyme H8 increased from 38.4% at pH 5 to 92.5% at pH 2.6. At pH 2.6, the observed product distribution resulted from 65.5% β-O-4′ ether bond cleavage, 27.0% C α -C 1 carbon bond cleavage, and 3.6% C α -oxidation as by-product. Using ab initio molecular dynamic simulations and climbing-image Nudge Elastic Band based transition state searches, we suggest the effect of lower pH is via protonation of aliphatic hydroxyl groups under which extremely acidic conditions resulted in lower energetic barriers for bond-cleavages, particularly β-O-4′ bonds. Conclusion These coupled experimental results and theoretical explanations suggest pH is a key driving force for selective and efficient lignin peroxidase isozyme H8 catalyzed depolymerization of the phenolic lignin dimer and further suggest that engineering of lignin peroxidase isozyme H8 and other enzymes involved in lignin depolymerization should include targeting stability at low pH.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Theoretical tools for neutrino scattering: interplay between lattice QCD, EFTs, nuclear physics, phenomenology, and neutrino event generators

Maximizing the discovery potential of increasingly precise neutrino experiments will require an improved theoretical understanding of neutrino-nucleus cross sections over a wide range of energies. Low-energy interactions are needed to reconstruct the energies of astrophysical neutrinos from supernovae bursts and search for new physics using increasingly precise measurement of coherent elastic neutrino scattering. Higher-energy interactions involve a variety of reaction mechanisms including quasi-elastic scattering, resonance production, and deep inelastic scattering that must all be included to reliably predict cross sections for energies relevant to DUNE and other accelerator neutrino experiments. This white paper discusses the theoretical status, challenges, required resources, and path forward for achieving precise predictions of neutrino-nucleus scattering and emphasizes the need for a coordinated theoretical effort involved lattice QCD, nuclear effective theories, phenomenological models of the transition region, and event generators.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Light Water Sustainability Program: Optimizing Information Automation Using a New Method Based on System-Theoretic Process Analysis

This report describes the interim progress for research supporting the design and optimization of information automation systems for nuclear power plants. Much of the domestic nuclear fleet is currently focused on modernizing technologies and processes, including transitioning toward digitalization in the control room and elsewhere throughout the plant, along with a greater use of automation, artificial intelligence, robotics, and other emerging technologies. While there are significant opportunities to apply these technologies toward greater plant safety, efficiency, and overall cost-effectiveness, optimizing their design and avoiding potential safety and performance risks depends on ensuring that human-performance-related organizational and technical design issues are identified and addressed. This report describes modeling tools and techniques, based on sociotechnical system theory, to support these design goals and their application in the current research effort. The report is intended for senior nuclear energy stakeholders, including regulators, corporate management, and senior plant management. We have developed and employed a method to design an optimized information automation ecosystem (IAE) based on the systems-theoretic constructs underlying sociotechnical systems theory in general and the Systems-Theoretic Accident Modeling and Processes (STAMP) approach in particular. We argue that an IAE can be modeled as an interactive information control system whose behavior can be understood in terms of dynamic control and feedback relationships amongst the system’s technical and organizational components. Up to this point, we have employed a Causal Analysis based on STAMP (CAST) technique to examine a performance- and safety-related incident at an industry partner’s plant that involved the unintentional activation of an emergency diesel generator. This analysis provided insight into the behavior of the plant’s current information control structure within the context of a specific, significant event. Our ongoing analysis is focused on identifying near-term process improvements and longer-term design requirements for an optimized IAE system. The latter analyses will employ a second STAMP-derived technique, System-Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA). STPA is a useful modeling tool for generating and analyzing actual or potential information control structures. Finally, we have begun modeling plantwide organizational relationships and processes. Organizational system modeling will supplement our CAST and STPA findings and provide a basis for mapping out a plantwide information control architecture. CAST analysis findings indicate an important underlying contributor to the incident under investigation, and a significant risk to information automation system performance, was perceived schedule pressure, which exposed weaknesses in interdepartmental coordination between and within responsible plant organizations and challenged the resilience of established plant processes, until a human caused the initiating event. These findings are discussed in terms of their risk to overall system performance and their implications for information automation system resilience and brittleness. We present two preliminary information automation models. The proactive issue resolution model is a test case of an information automation concept with significant near-term potential for application and subsequent reduction in significant plant events. The IAE model is a more general representation of a broader, plantwide information automation system. From our results, we have generated a set of preliminary system-level requirements and safety constraints. These requirements will be further developed over the remainder of our project in collaboration with nuclear industry subject matter experts and specialists in the technical systems under consideration. Additionally, we will continue to pursue the system analyses initiated in the first part of our effort, with a particular emphasis on STPA as the main tool to identify weak or weakening control structures that affect the resilience of organizations and programs. Our intent is to broaden the scope of the analysis from an individual use case to a related set of use cases (e.g., maintenance tasks, compliance tasks) with similar human-system performance challenges. This will enable more generalized findings to refine the Proactive Issue Resolution and IAE models, as well as their system-level requirements and safety constraints. We will use organizational system modeling analyses to supplement STPA findings and model development. We conclude the report with a set of summary recommendations and an initial draft list of system-level requirements and safety constraints for optimized information automation systems.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Optimizing Information Automation Using a New Method Based on System-Theoretic Process Analysis: Tool Development and Method Evaluation

This report is an update to a prior report that describes progress and findings for a program of research supporting the design and optimization of information automation systems for nuclear power plants. Much of the domestic nuclear fleet is currently focused on modernizing technologies and processes, including transitioning toward digitalization in the control room and throughout the plant, along with a greater interest in the use of automation, artificial intelligence, robotics, and other emerging technologies. While there are significant opportunities to apply these technologies toward greater plant safety, efficiency, and overall cost-effectiveness, optimizing their design and avoiding potential safety and performance risks depends on ensuring that human performance-related organizational and technical design issues are identified and addressed early in the design process. This report describes modeling tools and techniques, based on sociotechnical systems theory, to support these design goals and their application in the current research effort. The report is primarily intended for senior nuclear energy stakeholders, including regulators, corporate management, and senior plant management. We have developed and employed a method to design an optimized information automation ecosystem (IAE) based on the systems-theoretic constructs underlying sociotechnical systems theory in general and the Systems-Theoretic Accident Modeling and Processes (STAMP) approach in particular. We argue that an IAE can be modeled as an interactive information control system whose behavior can be understood in terms of dynamic control, feedback, and communication relationships amongst the system’s technical and organizational components. We have employed two STAMP-based tools in this effort. The first is Causal Analysis based on STAMP (CAST), an accident and incident analysis technique that was used to examine a performance- and safety-related incident at an industry partner’s plant involving the unintentional activation of an emergency diesel generator. This analysis provided insight into the behavior of the plant’s current information control structure within the context of a specific, significant event. The second tool is Systems Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) which is a proactive risk analysis tool used to examine existing and potential, planned sociotechnical systems. STPA was used to identify risk factors in the current design of a generic nuclear power plant (NPP) preventive maintenance system. Our analyses focused on identifying near-term system improvements and longer-term design requirements for an optimized IAE system. CAST analysis findings indicate an important underlying contributor to the incident under investigation, and a significant risk to information automation system performance, was perceived time and schedule pressure, which exposed weaknesses in interdepartmental coordination between and within responsible plant organizations and challenged the resilience of established plant processes, until a human caused the eventual event. These findings are discussed in terms of their risk to overall system performance and their implications for information automation system resilience and brittleness. STPA findings exposed several areas of concern in the design of current preventive maintenance systems. We also present two preliminary information automation models. The proactive issue resolution (PIR) model is a test case of an information automation concept with significant near-term potential for application and subsequent reduction in significant plant events. The IAE model is a more general representation of a broader, plantwide information automation system and represents an end-state vision for our work. From our results, we have generated an initial set of preliminary system-level requirements and safety constraints for these models. We have also focused on early development of easy to learn, easy to use “transportable” tools for sociotechnical systems analysis. We intend these to be used by NPP personnel as a means of gaining reliable and relatively quick insight into (1) sociotechnical systems factors impacting incidents and accidents, (2) potential sociotechnical risk factors in existing or planned system designs, and (3) potential weaknesses in a system’s safety and/or information control structure. We conclude the report with a set of summary recommendations, a discussion of planned and potential follow-on research and development, and a draft list of system-level requirements and safety constraints for optimized information automation systems.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Palladium at high pressure and high temperature: A combined experimental and theoretical study

Palladium is one of the most important technological materials, yet its phase diagram remains poorly understood. At ambient conditions, its solid phase is face-centered cubic (fcc). However, another solid phase of Pd, body-centered cubic (bcc), was very recently predicted in two independent theoretical studies to occur at high pressures and temperatures. In this work, we report an experimental study on the room-temperature equation of state (EOS) of Pd to a pressure of 80 GPa, as well as a theoretical study on the phase diagram of Pd including both fcc-Pd and bcc-Pd. Our theoretical approach consists in ab initio quantum molecular dynamics (QMD) simulations based on the Z methodology which combines both direct Z method for the simulation of melting curves and inverse Z method for the calculation of solid–solid phase transition boundaries. We obtain the melting curves of both fcc-Pd and bcc-Pd and an equation for the fcc–bcc solid– solid phase transition boundary as well as the thermal EOS of Pd which is in agreement with experimental data and QMD simulations. We uncover the presence of another solid phase of Pd on its phase diagram, namely, random hexagonal close-packed (rhcp), and estimate the location of the rhcp-bcc solid–solid phase transition boundary and the rhcp–fcc–bcc triple point. We also discuss the topological similarity of the phase diagrams of palladium and silver, the neighbor of Pd in the periodic table. We argue that Pd is a reliable standard for shock-compression studies and present the analytic model of its principal Hugoniot in a wide pressure range.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Neural Scaling Laws of Deep ReLU and Deep Operator Network: A Theoretical Study

Neural scaling laws play a pivotal role in the performance of deep neural networks and have been observed in a wide range of tasks. However, a complete theoretical framework for understanding these scaling laws remains underdeveloped. In this paper, we explore the neural scaling laws for deep operator networks, which involve learning mappings between function spaces, with a focus on the Chen and Chen style architecture. These approaches, which include the popular Deep Operator Network (DeepONet), approximate the output functions using a linear combination of learnable basis functions and coefficients that depend on the input functions. We establish a theoretical framework to quantify the neural scaling laws by analyzing its approximation and generalization errors. We articulate the relationship between the approximation and generalization errors of deep operator networks and key factors such as network model size and training data size. Moreover, we address cases where input functions exhibit low-dimensional structures, allowing us to derive tighter error bounds. These results also hold for deep ReLU networks and other similar structures. Our results offer a partial explanation of the neural scaling laws in operator learning and provide a theoretical foundation for their applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Optimizing Power Generation of a Bottom-Raised Oscillating Surge Wave Energy Converter Using a Theoretical Model: Preprint

Preliminary sizing of an oscillating surge wave energy converter (OSWEC) is an iterative process that relies on knowledge of the relevant hydrodynamic coefficients for a given geometry. Often, the complex definition of the device geometry requires coefficients to be obtained through experiments or numerical boundary element solvers such as WAMIT. These techniques demand significant user and computational effort, therefore inhibiting the fine scale parametrization of object dimensions. In this study, a theoretical model, originally presented in Michele et al. (2016), is developed and demonstrated to efficiently optimize the power production for an OSWEC device (subjected to certain environmental conditions) with variations in device widths, heights, and distances from the seabed. Assuming negligible device thickness, the OSWEC motions are modelled as a bottom-raised two-dimensional flap in regular waves using potential flow theory formulated in elliptical coordinates. The solutions to this diffraction-radiation problem are obtained using Mathieu functions with appropriate boundary conditions. The resulting potentials are then used to derive frequency-dependent expressions for the added mass and radiation damping coefficients, along with wave excitation magnitude in surge, pitch, and coupled surge-pitch motions. Good agreement in hydrodynamic coefficient curves is shown between the theoretical model and the numerical results obtained from the boundary element-based program WAMIT. The theoretical model is then employed to maximize the time-averaged output power while maintaining or reducing the hinge reaction force, with variations in device dimensions, wave frequency and amplitude.

ACE↗

DOE OSTI2020

$|\Delta \mathcal{B}| =2$: A State of the Field, and Looking Forward--A brief status report of theoretical and experimental physics opportunities

The origin of the matter-antimatter asymmetry apparently obligates the laws of physics to include some mechanism of baryon number ($\mathcal{B}$) violation. Searches for interactions violating $\mathcal{B}$ and baryon-minus-lepton number $\mathcal{(B-L)}$ represent a rich and underutilized opportunity. These are complementary to the existing, broad program of searches for $\mathcal{L}$-violating modes such as neutrinoless double $\beta$-decay which could provide deeper understandings of the plausibility of leptogenesis, or $\mathcal{B}$-violating, $\mathcal{(B-L)}$-conserving processes such as proton decay. In particular, a low-scale, post-sphaleron violation mechanism of $\mathcal{(B-L)}$ could provide a \textit{testable} form of baryogenesis. Though theoretically compelling, searches for such $\mathcal{(B-L)}$-violating processes like $\Delta\mathcal{B}=2$ dinucleon decay and $n\rightarrow\bar{n}$ remain relatively underexplored experimentally compared to other rare processes. By taking advantage of upcoming facilities such as the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment and the European Spallation Source, this gap can be addressed with new intranuclear and free searches for neutron transformations with very high sensitivity, perhaps greater than three orders of magnitude higher than previous experimental searches. This proceedings reports on recent theoretical and experimental advances and sensitivities of next-generation searches for neutron transformations were detailed as part of the Amherst Center for Fundamental Interactions Workshop, "Theoretical Innovations for Future Experiments Regarding Baryon Number Violation," directly coordinated with the Rare Processes and Precision Measurements Frontier.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Optimizing Power Generation of a Bottomraised Oscillating Surge Wave Energy Converter Using a Theoretical Model

ACE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Language-Theoretic Data Analysis to Support ICS Protocol Baselining

Critical infrastructure stakeholders need to baseline their systems to understand expected protocol communications. Baseline behaviors may vary based on operational context. Expected operations during a maintenance window, for example, may be different from normal operations. Furthermore, constructing system baselines for Industrial Control Systems (ICS) is difficult and time-consuming. ICS processes generate artifacts expressed across heterogeneous data sources such as network traffic and device logs. This paper explores the hypothesis that such ICS artifacts form a language in the language-theoretic sense. From a theoretical perspective, the variety of implementations of ICS protocols and constrained environment of OT networks provide a rich application domain for language-theoretic approaches. We present several use cases related to the practical construction of system baselines: grammars for data fusion, language dialects for device fingerprinting, and security automata for system baselining

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Hypothesis tests on Rayleigh wave radiation pattern shapes: a theoretical assessment of idealized source screening

SUMMARY Shallow seismic sources excite Rayleigh wave ground motion with azimuthally dependent radiation patterns. We place binary hypothesis tests on theoretical models of such radiation patterns to screen cylindrically symmetric sources (like explosions) from non-symmetric sources (like non-vertical dip-slip or non-VDS faults). These models for data include sources with several unknown parameters, contaminated by Gaussian noise and embedded in a layered half-space. The generalized maximum likelihood ratio tests that we derive from these data models produce screening statistics and decision rules that depend on measured, noisy ground motion at discrete sensor locations. We explicitly quantify how the screening power of these statistics increase with the size of any dip-slip and strike-slip components of the source, relative to noise (faulting signal strength) and how they vary with network geometry. As applications of our theory, we apply these tests to (1) find optimal sensor locations that maximize the probability of screening non-circular radiation patterns and (2) invert for the largest non-VDS faulting signal that could be mistakenly attributed to an explosion with damage, at a particular attribution probability. Finally, we quantify how certain errors that are sourced by opening cracks increase screening rate errors. While such theoretical solutions are ideal and require future validation, they remain important in underground explosion monitoring scenarios because they provide fundamental physical limits on the discrimination power of tests that screen explosive from non-VDS faulting sources.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗