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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2020

On the Formalization of Development and Assessment Process for Digital Twins in the Nearly Autonomous Management and Control System

In recent years, the autonomous control system has been encouraged in advanced reactors for restoring economic viability, simplifying the operation and maintenance, and enabling remote-site power generations [1]. Since the reactor is expected to be operated for a long period of time with a limited number of individuals onsite, it is recommended that the autonomous control system should have access to very realistic models of the state of processes in the whole lifecycle, together with these process behaviors in interaction with their environment in the real world. As a result, digital twin (DT) technology is suggested in autonomous control systems. DT is defined as a digital representation of a physical object or system, which contains a record for the histories of loads, operation and maintenance status, predictions for the near-term transient of important state variables, and decision-making process [2]. Since machine learning (ML) can recognize patterns within a complex system in real-time applications, it has been used to build DTs in the autonomous control systems for advanced reactors. Meanwhile, due to the rareness of operation data in accident scenarios, the development and assessment of DTs is expected to be mainly driven by simulations. Although the capability and feasibility of ML-based DTs are recognized in improving the safety and efficiency of reactor control, a major concern from the regulatory commission and the nuclear industry is whether the information from a DT is developed and assessed in accordance with expectation and requirements by the target decision. Such concerns not only affect the acceptance criteria for DTs, but also values that can be extracted from DTs and autonomous control system during operations. Inspired by the success of formal methods in improving the reliability and robustness of computer programming and software development, it is suggested that the development and assessment process (DAP) for both separate DTs and integral control system should be formalized in a transparent, consistent, and improvable manner. In this study, a digital-twin development and assessment process (DT-DAP) is proposed by adapting the evaluation model development and assessment process (EMDAP) [3] to requirements by the autonomous control system, ML algorithms, and DT technology. To demonstrate the framework, a baseline nearly autonomous management and control (NAMAC) system with ML-based DTs for diagnosis and prognosis is developed and assessed based on the framework. It is found that with selected testing methods and techniques, the DT-DAP can help identify errors in DTs and NAMAC which would otherwise be left unverified. Meanwhile, it is found that the DT-DAP can improve the DTs and NAMAC by continuously learning and iterating through different elements.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Technical Bases for Consequence Analyses Using MACCS (MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System)

The use of MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS) in regulatory applications requires that input parameters used in MACCS models have a defensible and transparent technical basis. The existing technical basis for MACCS parameters was identified and updates were developed based on current data and information. The transparent way these updates are documented provides a technical basis for updating MACCS parameters with consistent application among the MACCS user community.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Coalition for Community-Supported Affordable Geothermal Energy Systems (C2SAGES)

The C2SAGES project evaluated the feasibility of a community geothermal system for the planned Windy Ridge affordable housing development in Hinesburg, Vermont. Led by GTI Energy with Vermont Gas Systems, LN Consulting, NREL, and Frontier Energy, the work assessed technical design, energy performance, costs, business models, community engagement, maintenance, workforce development, and permitting. The proposed system was designed to serve 100% of the development’s heating, cooling, and domestic hot water loads. Compared with a baseline using air-source heat pumps and natural gas water heating, the geothermal system was estimated to reduce HVAC and domestic hot water energy use by about 45% to 48%, lower operating and maintenance costs, and reduce 30-year life-cycle costs by 37% for Phase 1 and 10% for Phase 2. Technical testing and modeling indicated that the Windy Ridge site is suitable for a community-scale geothermal system. The project also developed borehole field layouts, piping concepts, pump house designs, controls, maintenance plans, and supporting engineering drawings. The business model analysis found that first cost, ownership structure, and customer affordability remain major deployment challenges. Utility-led maintenance and operation were viewed favorably, but traditional utility cost-recovery models may require subsidy or revised financing structures to be practical for affordable housing. Community engagement highlighted the need for clear public education, transparent financing, reliable long-term maintenance, trained technicians, and the potential to pair geothermal systems with weatherization. Overall, the report concludes that community geothermal is technically feasible and offers meaningful energy, emissions, and life-cycle cost benefits, but broader deployment will depend on workable financing models and workforce readiness.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

New framework for benchmarking decadal predictions leveraging the PCMDI Metric Package with interactive visualization

Reliable climate predictions across multiple timescales are increasingly critical as climate-related risks continue to rise. With the growing number and diversity of climate prediction systems, systematic intercomparison has become essential. Here, we present a comprehensive evaluation framework based on the PCMDI Metric Package to assess the performance of multiple decadal climate prediction systems. Unlike uninitialized simulations, initialized predictions exhibit bias and predictive skill that evolve with forecast lead time. To address this, we introduce (1) model-by-lead-time portrait plots, which efficiently summarize metrics of global temperature, precipitation, and Arctic/Antarctic sea-ice extent, and (2) an HTML-based interactive visualization platform that provides detailed regional and seasonal diagnostics of model bias, skill scores, and ensemble spread for each model and lead time. Comparisons with uninitialized simulations further quantify the relative impacts of initialization and external forcing on prediction skill. The proposed framework provides a scalable and transparent approach for multi-model climate prediction assessments and can be readily extended to a wide range of operational and research forecasting systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

XSub: Explanation-Driven Adversarial Attack against Blackbox Classifiers via Feature Substitution

Despite its significant benefits in enhancing the transparency and trustworthiness of artificial intelligence (AI) systems, explainable AI (XAI) can unintentionally provide adversaries with insights into blackbox models, increasing their vulnerability to various attacks. In this paper, we develop a novel explanation-driven adversarial attack against blackbox classifiers based on feature substitution, called XSub. The key idea of XSub is to strategically replace important features (identified via XAI) in the original sample with corresponding important features of a different label, thereby increasing the likelihood of the model misclassifying the perturbed sample. XSub only requires a minimal number of queries and can be easily extended to launch backdoor attacks in case the attacker has access to the model's training data. Our evaluation shows that XSub is not only effective and stealthy but also low-cost, showcasing its feasibility across a wide range of AI applications.

adversarial attack↗

NASA NTRS1970

Investigation of an Optimum Detection Scheme for a Star-Field Mapping System

An investigation was made to determine the optimum detection scheme for a star-field mapping system that uses coded detection resulting from starlight shining through specially arranged multiple slits of a reticle. The computer solution of equations derived from a theoretical model showed that the greatest probability of detection for a given star and background intensity occurred with the use of a single transparent slit. However, use of multiple slits improved the system's ability to reject the detection of undesirable lower intensity stars, but only by decreasing the probability of detection for lower intensity stars to be mapped. Also, it was found that the coding arrangement affected the root-mean-square star-position error and that detection is possible with error in the system's detected spin rate, though at a reduced probability.

Aldridge, M. D.↗

DOE OSTI2026

MSD CoP Webinar: Modeling the Operations of Reservoir Systems with LLMs and Inverse Reinforcement Learning

Context: This panel featured three presentations centered on the common theme of applying LLMs and inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) to capture the complex human-environment interactions that are central to the operation of reservoir systems. Dr. Wyatt Arnold will kick off the webinar with a talk on how analyzing LLM chain-of-thought reasoning reveals sophisticated quantitative justification and risk awareness, showing promise as a bridge between quantitative models and value-driven water management decisions. Next, Dr. Matteo Giuliani will build on this with a discussion demonstrating that AI- and IRL-driven approaches can infer the trade-offs between flood control and water supply using historical observations. Finally, Dr. Rohan Singh Wilkho will close the webinar with a talk establishing IRL as a generalizable diagnostic tool for decoding decision-making in managed hydrologic and human-infrastructure systems. Across the three presentations, the application of LLMs and IRL opens new possibilities for the development of adaptive, transparent, and human-aware models supporting water management in an increasingly uncertain future. Presenters: Wyatt Arnold (Politecnico di Milano); Matteo Giuliani (Politecnico di Milano); Rohan Singh Wilkho (Cornell University) Moderator: Patrick M. Reed (MSD CoP Facilitation Team); Stefano Galelli (MSD CoP AI Working Group Co-Chair); David Gold (MSD CoP AI Working Group Co-Chair) This webinar was held on: June 23rd, 2026 from 12-1 PM EST.

Arnold, Wyatt [Politecnico di Milano]↗

NASA NTRS1986

Thermal-capillary analysis of Czochralski and liquid encapsulated Czochralski crystal growth

Results are presented from finite element analysis of the Czochralski (CZ) and Liquid Encapsulated Czochralski (LEC) crystal growth processes based on a thermal-capillary model which governs the heat transfer in the system simultaneously with setting the shapes of the melt/solid interface, the melt and encapsulant menisci, and the radius of a steadily growing crystal. Calculations are performed for the small-scale growth of silicon (CZ) and gallium arsenide (LEC). The effects of melt volume and crucible position relative to the heater on the radius of the crystal and the shape of the melt/solid interface are predicted for the CZ system, and the importance of including an accurate representation of the melt meniscus for modeling the process is demonstrated. The additional effect of an encapsulant layer on heat transfer is treated for the LEC method for the cases of totally transparent and opaque encapsulant. The responses of these LEC prototype systems are examined for changes in pull rate and encapsulant volume.

Derby, J. J.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Generative AI for Power Grid Operations

Generative artificial intelligence (AI) has captured into the mainstream, demonstrating capabilities that once belonged solely to the realm of human cognition. From defeating world champions in complex games to generating human-quality text and images, Generative AI has proven its potential to revolutionize countless industries. The electric power grid is no exception. Generative AI's ability to process vast amounts of data rapidly, assist decision support and identify patterns could significantly enhance power grid operations. For example, Generative AI could improve state estimation where measurements are not available or integrate renewable energy sources more efficiently with probabilistic forecasting. The key contributions of this whitepaper are outlined below: (1) Comprehensive overview of Generative AI's applications in power grid operations: It highlights the opportunities in areas such as forecasting, state estimation, and demonstrating the potential for enhancing efficiency, reliability, and resilience. (2) Expanding Generative AI's impact through synergies with emerging technologies: The paper introduce NREL developed eGridGPT and explores how AI orchestration, multi-agent systems, and Digital Twins can collaborate to optimize grid operations, addressing the complexities of a decarbonized and electrified future. (3) In-depth analysis of challenges in implementing Generative AI: This includes considerations like data availability and quality, model validation, certification, and ethical concerns, ensuring responsible AI deployment. (4) Emphasizing human-AI collaboration: The whitepaper underscores the importance of trustworthy, transparency, and explainability in AI systems to promote seamless interaction between human operators and AI, ultimately improving decision-making. (5) Exploring future research and development: It identifies critical areas for further advancement to fully realize Generative AI's potential in power grid operations. This whitepaper serves as a valuable resource for researchers, practitioners, and policymakers looking to harness Generative AI for a more reliable, stable, and cost-effective power grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Real-Space Constrained Density Functional Theory Investigation of Site-Specific, Interfacial Charge Recombination Dynamics Across the Au Nanoparticle/TiO 2 Heterojunction

Au nanoparticle (NP)/TiO 2 heterojunction is a representative system to study interfacial charge transfer in photocatalysis and photovoltaics, where suppressing recombination from TiO 2 to Au can enhance hot carrier extraction. We apply real-space constrained density functional theory (CDFT) with Marcus theory to quantify charge recombination time scales across Au/TiO 2 . This approach enables direct control and visualization of charge-separated states, aligning with site-specific probes like time-resolved X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (trXPS). We find that the charge-separated state features a bipolaron, with recombination dominated by TiO 2 LUMO to Au HOMO transitions, primarily at interfacial Au sites. Marcus rate predictions are benchmarked with surface hopping methods, quantifying differences in time scales and computational efficiency. Lastly, we examine how the Au cluster size affects the free energy change (ΔG) and reorganization energy (λ), explaining trends in closed-shell systems and highlighting challenges for open-shell extrapolations. Overall, CDFT + Marcus theory provides efficient, mechanistically transparent interfacial charge transfer modeling, and we clearly defined its applicability and limitation.

Glenna, Drew M. [Univ. of Idaho, Idaho Falls, ID (↗

DOE OSTI2024

Planning for Equitable Solar Deployment with Electric Cooperatives

The goal of the study was to understand how electric cooperatives can design equitable solar photovoltaic (PV) projects consistent with the goals of their organizations. To understand the possibilities for equitable solar deployment, the project team carefully defined cross-subsidy by delving into the multi-level structure of electric cooperatives. Understanding that utilities and analysts apply different cost-categorization perspectives was key to developing a transparent analytic model that traces the economic value flows of new solar PV projects across the tiers of a cooperative system.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

NeuroSymbolic Approaches as a Vector for Assured Artificial Intelligence

The deployment of artificial intelligence systems in critical applications requires higher levels of assurance for safety, security, and interpretability. While neurosymbolic (NESY) approaches combining neural networks with symbolic reasoning offer potential advantages for assured AI, existing differentiable neurosymbolic frameworks face significant limitations including computational overhead and performance constraints. This report investigates the ISED (InferSampleEstimateDescend) framework as an alternative approach that enables neurosymbolic learning without requiring endtoend differentiability. We evaluate ISED’s utility for geointelligence applications by comparing neurosymbolic models against standard neural networks on aircraft classification tasks using the RarePlanes and MTARSI imagery datasets. Our results demonstrate that while ISEDbased models achieve slightly lower accuracy (89.7% vs 92.1% on RarePlanes; 91.1% vs 92.5% on MTARSI), they provide critical explainability capabilities that enable tracing incorrect predictions back to specific attribute misclassifications. We also present an automated pipeline that generates both attributeclass mappings and neurosymbolic model architectures from natural language descriptions, significantly reducing the manual effort required for NESY model deployment. These findings suggest that ISED offers a promising direction for developing assured AI systems where interpretability and reasoning transparency are prioritized alongside performance.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1987

The use of molten salts as physical models for the study of solidification in metals and semiconductors

It is presently noted that molten salts possess attributes rendering them attractive as physical models of cast metals in solidification studies. Molten alkali halides have an approximately correct Prandtl number for this modeling of metallic melts, and are transparent to visible light. Attention is given to solidification in the LiCl-KCl system, in order to determine whether such phenomena as solute rejection can be observed and characterized through the application of laser schlieren imaging.

Koziol, Jurek K.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Development of an expert planning system for OSSA

This paper presents concepts related to preliminary work for the development of an expert planning system for NASA's Office for Space Science and Applications (OSSA). The expert system will function as a planner's decision aid in preparing mission plans encompassing sets of proposed OSSA space science initiatives. These plans in turn will be checked against budgetary and technical constraints and tested for constraint violations. Appropriate advice will be generated by the system for making modifications to the plans to bring them in line with the constraints. The OSSA Planning Expert System (OPES) has been designed to function as an integral part of the OSSA mission planning process. It will be able to suggest a best plan, be able to accept and check a user-suggested strawman plan, and should provide a quick response to user request and actions. OPES will be written in the C programming language and have a transparent user interface running under Windows 386 on a Compaq 386/20 machine. The system's sorted knowledge and inference procedures will model the expertise of human planners familiar with the OSSA planning domain. Given mission priorities and budget guidelines, the system first sets the launch dates for each mission. It will check to make sure that planetary launch windows and precursor mission relationships are not violated. Additional levels of constraints will then be considered, checking such things as the availability of a suitable launch vehicle, total mission launch mass required vs. the identified launch mass capability, and the total power required by the payload at its destination vs. the actual power available. System output will be in the form of Gantt charts, spreadsheet hardcopy, and other presentation quality materials detailing the resulting OSSA mission plan.

Groundwater, B.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Updates to a Preliminary Probabilistic Performance Assessment Model for Radiological and Chemical Contamination at the West Valley Site, New York - 20420

The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) is the owner of the Western New York Nuclear Service Center (WNYNSC), a 1,351-ha site located approximately 48 km south of Buffalo, New York. In 1962, Nuclear Fuel Services, Inc. (NFS) entered into agreements with the Atomic Energy Commission and New York State to construct the first commercial reprocessing plant of nuclear fuel in the United States at the WNYNSC. NFS built and operated the spent fuel reprocessing plant and waste disposal facilities, processing 640 Mg (640 metric tons) of spent nuclear fuel from 1966 to 1972 under an Atomic Energy Commission license. Nuclear fuel reprocessing operations halted in 1972 and never restarted, leaving behind radioactive and chemical wastes. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) was required to complete certain waste management activities under the West Valley Demonstration Project (WVDP) Act of 1980 including decommissioning of WVDP facilities. As collaborating agencies, NYSERDA and the DOE are tasked with making decisions about decommissioning and risk reduction for the West Valley Site. Neptune and Company, Inc. (Neptune) was contracted to develop a probabilistic performance assessment (PPA) model to assist the agencies in their decision making process for decommissioning the WVDP and WNYNSC. One important tool that is needed in order to inform the decision-making process is a science-based model of the West Valley Site that evaluates potential future consequences for human health and the environment. This forms the core of the spatial domain of the West Valley PPA Model. The PPA Model, developed using the GoldSim system modeling software, is a tool intended to provide support for decision making that evaluates uncertainty, in a manner that is transparent, defensible, and robust. The PPA Model includes contaminant transport and health effects components, and is organized around geographically-grouped contaminated facilities. These include the waste disposal areas licensed by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the State of New York, a waste tank farm for storage of high level radioactive waste resulting from reprocessing operations, and several areas contaminated with radioactive and chemical constituents. The PPA Model evaluates contaminant transport from these sources to points of exposure across the site and into receiving surface waters and sediments. Hypothetical people and wildlife could be exposed to contamination at these locations, and the effects of these exposures are evaluated. Contaminant transport processes to be evaluated in the PPA Model include groundwater and surface water transport, contaminant translocation by plants and animals, diffusion, and erosion. The evaluation of exposures to people in this preliminary model is limited to a resident farmer scenario, and ecological assessment is performed at the level of a screening analysis. The results of these preliminary evaluations inform future model developments. PPA Model results are subjected to sensitivity analysis in order to determine those pathways and parameters that are most significant in influencing the results. This information allows analysts and decision makers to focus on those aspects of Site behavior and processes. With this information, the decision makers can drive informed, defensible decisions regarding decommissioning of the Site. This paper includes an update of the information presented at WM2019 [1]. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Spacecraft Window Design from a Thermal Perspective

This paper gives a rudimentary introduction to spacecraft window design from a thermal engineering perspective. Windows have always been integral parts of all of NASA’s flown, crewed spacecraft missions and will continue to be included on future crewed vehicles. They are part of the primary structure and require high structural reliability. Often neglected by non-thermal engineers, there are important thermal impacts to including windows on a spacecraft design. Thermal radiation from the sun, planetary bodies, or other vehicles can enter the vehicle and heat the interior. Windows can also be heat leaks to space during cold operations. Windows may also serve as part of the vehicle Thermal Protection System for entry vehicles. Like all other parts of the spacecraft, windows must be included in thermal models to predict temperatures; the transparency of pane materials and the addition of coatings increase modeling complexity. Testing of windows is also more complex than typical spacecraft structure due to the uniqueness of each pane (depending on material), transmittance, and the challenge of physically measuring window material temperature during testing.

Cheyn L Worn↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Spacecraft Window Design From A Thermal Perspective

Thermal↗

DOE OSTI2026

Advancing Asset Management in Water Infrastructure Systems

Aging water system infrastructure, including drinking water, wastewater, and stormwater, poses a growing challenge for utilities and municipalities. These water systems have well documented challenges with respect to their age, condition, and level of service. ASCE annual report cards consistently rate these infrastructure systems in the United States as underfunded, overcapacity, or past service life (ASCE 2025 Report Card). For example, Chini and Stillwell (2017) estimated that the mean water loss in drinking water systems, i.e., non-revenue water, is approximately 16% across the United States. These concerns are not just relegated to the United States, with Courtenay, British Columbia, identifying 17% of their water main pipes as in a ‘poor’ condition state, defined as a category condition 5 out of 5 (City of Courtenay, 2024). These cases illustrate the challenges utilities are facing to manage extensive networks of infrastructure to deliver a consistent and high level of service. For buried infrastructure such as water systems, studies suggest that preventative interventions can lead to lower maintenance costs and fewer service disruptions (Mazumder et al, 2018; Li et al, 2014). The demonstrated need and benefit of appropriately applied asset management is juxtaposed against the relatively sparse literature that evaluates water systems within an asset management construct. Since 2020, just 37 papers specifically reference asset management in the Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management. Of those, only a few specifically look to develop strategies for improved asset management. Therefore, we highlight four key research areas that represent opportunities for advancement of asset management research for water systems. First, advances in condition assessment and forecasting are needed to better estimate asset deterioration using diverse datasets. Second, machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) hold promise for predictive maintenance and investment prioritization, though questions of generalizability and model transparency remain. Third, applying a value of information framework can guide utilities in making cost-effective sensor deployment and data collection decisions, to direct monitoring strategies towards data-informed asset management decisions. Finally, integrated infrastructure management is critical, requiring coordinated planning with other infrastructure systems and stakeholder engagement to reduce costs and enhance service delivery.

Chini, Christopher M.↗