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Development, refinement, and testing of a short term solar flare prediction algorithm

Progress toward performance of the tasks and accomplishing the goals set forth in the two year Research Grant included primarily analysis of digital data sets and determination of methodology associated with the analysis of the very large, unique, and complex collection of digital solar magnetic field data. The treatment of each magnetogram as a unique set of data requiring special treatment was found to be necessary. It is determined that a person familiar with the data, the analysis system, and logical, coherent outcome of the analysis must conduct each analysis, and interact with the analysis program(s) significantly sometimes many iterations for successful calibration and analysis of the data set. With this interaction, the data sets yield valuable, coherent analyses. During this period, it was also decided that only data sets taken inside heliographic longitudes (Central Meridian Distance) East and West 30 degrees (within 30 degrees of the Central Meridian of the Sun). If the total data set is then found to be numerically inadequate for the final analysis, 30 - 45 degrees Central Meridian Distance data will then be analyzed. The Optical Data storage system (MSFC observatory) was found appropriate for use both in intermediate storage of the data (preliminary to analysis), and for storage of the analyzed data sets for later parametric extraction.

Smith, Jesse B., Jr.↗

Improving the Fidelity of Capability & Resource Weighting in A Probalistic Risk Assessment Model for Spaceflight

INTRODUCTION NASA’s Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces (IMPACT) tool uses Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to provide an evidence-based, data-driven estimate of how medical system capabilities affect mission outcomes. IMPACT maps condition incidence to available resources thereby facilitating the calculation of outcome metrics that allow the estimation of mission medical risk. Conditions can be nominally categorized as either treated or untreated depending on the availability of necessary diagnostic and therapeutic capabilities. This categorization enables IMPACT to estimate the effect of various medical system configurations on mission outcomes such as crew mortality, disability, crew member down-time, return to duty/recovery, and need for evacuation. IMPACT currently employs an equal weighting, “partial credit” approach to define treatment in which each of the capabilities associated with a given condition contributes an equal amount to management of the condition. This feature enables IMPACT to report values in between “fully untreated” and “fully treated” based on the proportion of capabilities available within the model. However, as is normal in medical/clinical practice, not all individual capabilities contribute equally to medical care. For example, the ability to provide intramuscular epinephrine during an anaphylactic episode contributes more likelihood of overall management success than does the administration of oral diphenhydramine. We hypothesize that weighting the relative contribution of each capability to each specific condition will improve outcome prediction and therefore will better provide mission planners with more nuanced and accurate options when designing space medical systems. METHODS Using a five-point Fibonacci scaling sequence (1, 2, 3, 5, 8) subject matter experts from NASA’s Exploration Medical Capabilities (ExMC) element assigned relative contribution weighting values to each identified capability within IMPACT. Since the relative importance of each capability varies depending on the specific condition, the resulting “partial” weighting was completed for more than 1,600 individual weighting assignments for 666 capabilities across 121 conditions. Each assignment required three-physician concurrence based on the overall importance of the capability to the diagnosis and management of the condition being considered and the difficulty with which it could be improvised by the crew. Once complete, 100,000 IMPACT simulations were run for a 6-month Lunar mission with a 30-day surface stay to evaluate the effect of this modification of the model. RESULTS Partial weighting significantly decreased predicted task time loss (TTL), evacuation, and loss of crew life without causing significant changes to the recommended medical system design. CONCLUSIONS The paucity of real-world referent data to support long-duration space missions of this type limits the ability to judge one predictive analytics method as superior to another. However, since the proposed method significantly reduces and optimizes outcome risks—without changing the medical system design—incorporating a partial weighting methodology is likely to provide a more accurate and operationally-relevant representation of medical risk without compromising IMPACTs ability to inform overarching medical system requirements.

Steller JG↗

Prognostic significance of electrical alternans versus signal averaged electrocardiography in predicting the outcome of electrophysiological testing and arrhythmia-free survival

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the accuracy of signal averaged electrocardiography (SAECG) and measurement of microvolt level T wave alternans as predictors of susceptibility to ventricular arrhythmias. DESIGN: Analysis of new data from a previously published prospective investigation. SETTING: Electrophysiology laboratory of a major referral hospital. PATIENTS AND INTERVENTIONS: 43 patients, not on class I or class III antiarrhythmic drug treatment, undergoing invasive electrophysiological testing had SAECG and T wave alternans measurements. The SAECG was considered positive in the presence of one (SAECG-I) or two (SAECG-II) of three standard criteria. T wave alternans was considered positive if the alternans ratio exceeded 3.0. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Inducibility of sustained ventricular tachycardia or fibrillation during electrophysiological testing, and 20 month arrhythmia-free survival. RESULTS: The accuracy of T wave alternans in predicting the outcome of electrophysiological testing was 84% (p < 0.0001). Neither SAECG-I (accuracy 60%; p < 0.29) nor SAECG-II (accuracy 71%; p < 0.10) was a statistically significant predictor of electrophysiological testing. SAECG, T wave alternans, electrophysiological testing, and follow up data were available in 36 patients while not on class I or III antiarrhythmic agents. The accuracy of T wave alternans in predicting the outcome of arrhythmia-free survival was 86% (p < 0.030). Neither SAECG-I (accuracy 65%; p < 0.21) nor SAECG-II (accuracy 71%; p < 0.48) was a statistically significant predictor of arrhythmia-free survival. CONCLUSIONS: T wave alternans was a highly significant predictor of the outcome of electrophysiological testing and arrhythmia-free survival, while SAECG was not a statistically significant predictor. Although these results need to be confirmed in prospective clinical studies, they suggest that T wave alternans may serve as a non-invasive probe for screening high risk populations for malignant ventricular arrhythmias.

Non-NASA Center↗

Harnessing Artificial Intelligence for Medical Diagnosis and Treatment During Space Exploration Missions

BACKGROUND The medical capabilities necessary for long-duration exploration missions (LDEMs) will differ tremendously from those currently available to crew medical officers (CMOs) on the International Space Station (ISS). Ground support will be more challenging due to distance-related communication delays and data transmission, and resource utilization must be optimized given limited ability for resupply. Clinical decision support systems (CDSSs) can help mitigate these limitations. The recent launch of generative artificial intelligence (AI) tools based upon large language models (LLM) support the creation of a smart assistant for onboard triage, diagnosis, and guided treatment of medical conditions during these missions. The Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces (IMPACT) tool can help predict which clinical problems and outcomes are likely to occur for a design reference mission (DRM) and assist Medical Operations and systems engineering teams in creating a medical system that may optimally mitigate the predicted risks. The purpose of this study was to identify AI tools currently available or in development for the assistive diagnosis and care of medical conditions predicted for an extended duration Lunar mission. METHODS The 119 medical conditions currently built into the IMPACT suite were categorized into systems, and these diagnoses were used as keywords for our literature search. Using PubMed and Google Scholar, we performed a literature survey of AI tools applicable to these conditions. Article inclusion criteria included publication between the years 2017-2023, as the sentinel paper discussing the “selective attention” driving ChatGPT and other generative transformer models was published in June 2017. Where applicable, we reviewed only the top 1000 research articles (based on relevance) for each of the keywords/phrases. AI tools whose training sets were exclusive to a pediatric patient population were excluded. We also excluded any medical diagnostic tools (such as CT, MRI, mass spectrometry) or procedures (such as endoscopy, surgery) that are unlikely to be available during LDEMs due to mass and volume constraints, CMO knowledge, skills, and abilities, and/or inherent procedural risks. RESULTS Our survey highlighted several AI-driven tools for the triage, diagnosis, and management of those medical conditions highlighted by IMPACT. Selected publications for each medical condition were then screened for inclusion within ten systems-based categories including: general diagnostic tools (25), tools to diagnose and manage respiratory (40), dermatologic (34), neurologic (28), auditory and vestibular (30), ophthalmic (34), musculoskeletal (104), infection-associated (92), and gynecologic (19) conditions, as well as tools that could be deployed in the setting of trauma and emergency (34). CONCLUSIONS Numerous AI-driven tools were highlighted within this literature survey, ranging from chatbot assistants that triage knee pain to vision transformer models for diagnosis of ophthalmic conditions using ocular surface images captured with a mobile phone. Remaining challenges include optimizing connectivity and integration of existing and developing systems into the vehicles or habitats. Notably, findings from this survey could help guide the initial design of an all-encompassing, onboard medical AI assistant for use during future LDEMs.

R A Lacinski↗

Updates to the MSFC Meteoroid Stream Model

The Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) Meteoroid Stream Model simulates particle ejection and subsequent evolution from comets in order to provide meteor shower forecasts to spacecraft operators for hazard mitigation and planning purposes. The model, previously detailed, has recently been updated; the changes include the implementation of the RADAU integrator, an improved planetary treatment, and the inclusion of general relativistic effects in the force function. The results of these updates are investigated with respect to various meteoroid streams and the outcome presented.

Moser, D. E.↗

Outcome of patients with hypertrophic obstructive cardiomyopathy after percutaneous transluminal septal myocardial ablation and septal myectomy surgery

OBJECTIVES: This study was conducted to evaluate follow-up results in patients with hypertrophic obstructive cardiomyopathy (HOCM) who underwent either percutaneous transluminal septal myocardial ablation (PTSMA) or septal myectomy. BACKGROUND: Controversy exists with regard to these two forms of treatment for patients with HOCM. METHODS: Of 51 patients with HOCM treated, 25 were treated by PTSMA and 26 patients via myectomy. Two-dimensional echocardiograms were performed before both procedures, immediately afterwards and at a three-month follow-up. The New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class was obtained before the procedures and at follow-up. RESULTS: Interventricular septal thickness was significantly reduced at follow-up in both groups (2.3 +/- 0.4 cm vs. 1.9 +/- 0.4 cm for septal ablation and 2.4 +/- 0.6 cm vs. 1.7 +/- 0.2 cm for myectomy, both p < 0.001). Estimated by continuous-wave Doppler, the resting pressure gradient (PG) across the left ventricular outflow tract (LVOT) significantly decreased immediately after the procedures in both groups (64 +/- 39 mm Hg vs. 28 +/- 29 mm Hg for PTSMA, 62 +/- 43 mm Hg vs. 7 +/- 7 mm Hg for myectomy, both p < 0.0001). At three-month follow-up, the resting PG remained lower in the PTSMA and myectomy groups (24 +/- 19 mm Hg and 11 +/- 6 mm Hg, respectively, vs. those before procedures, both p < 0.0001). The NYHA functional class was also significantly improved in both groups (3.5 +/- 0.5 vs. 1.9 +/- 0.7 for PTSMA, 3.3 +/- 0.5 vs. 1.5 +/- 0.7 for myectomy, both p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Both myectomy and PTSMA reduce LVOT obstruction and significantly improve NYHA functional class in patients with HOCM. However, there are benefits and drawbacks for each therapeutic method that must be counterbalanced when deciding on treatment for LVOT obstruction.

Non-NASA Center↗

Risk of Adverse Health Outcomes & Decrements in Performance due to Inflight Medical Conditions: ExMC Pharmacy Research Plan

The Exploration Medical Capabilities (ExMC) Element of NASA's Human Research Program is charged with identifying medical capabilities that can address the challenges of prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of disease and injuries that could occur during exploration missions beyond Earth's orbit. Faced with the obstacle of access to in-flight medical care, and limitations of vehicle space, time, and communications; it is necessary to prioritize what medical consumables are manifested for the flight, and which medical conditions are addressed. Studies of astronaut health establish the incidence of common and high risk medical conditions that require medical intervention during long-duration exploration missions. In 2000, the Institute of Medicine (IOM) convened a committee of experts, Committee on Creating a Vision for Space Medicine during Travel beyond Earth Orbit, to examine the issues surrounding astronaut health and safety for long duration space missions. Two themes run throughout the committee's final report: (1) that not enough is known about the risks to human health during long-duration missions beyond Earth's orbit or about what can effectively mitigate those risks to enable humans to travel and work safely in the environment of deep space and (2) that everything reasonable should be done to gain the necessary information before humans are sent on missions of space exploration (IOM, 2001). Although several spaceflight focused pharmaceutical research studies have been conducted, few have provided sufficient data regarding medication usage or potency changes during spaceflight. The Du pharmaceutical stability study assessed medications flown on space shuttles to and from the International Space Station (ISS) from 2006 until 2008; of which some medications were still viable beyond their expiration dates (Du et al, 2011). However, as with many spaceflight studies, the small 'n' associated with this study limits the ability to draw strong conclusions from it. Dr. Wotring and others have recently published articles containing information regarding medication usage, indications, and efficacy gleaned from spaceflight records (Wotring et al, 2015, 2016; Barger et al, 2014; Basner and Dinges, 2014). Although some conclusions can be drawn from these studies, the inability to fully quantify medication usage, indications, side effects, and effectiveness, limits insight as to which medications should be prioritized for further research.

Antonsen, Erik↗

Using Concurrent Cardiovascular Information to Augment Survival Time Data from Orthostatic Tilt Tests

Orthostatic Intolerance (OI) is the propensity to develop symptoms of fainting during upright standing. OI is associated with changes in heart rate, blood pressure and other measures of cardiac function. Problem: NASA astronauts have shown increased susceptibility to OI on return from space missions. Current methods for counteracting OI in astronauts include fluid loading and the use of compression garments. Multivariate trajectory spread is greater as OI increases. Pairwise comparisons at the same time within subjects allows incorporation of pass/fail outcomes. Path length, convex hull area, and covariance matrix determinant do well as statistics to summarize this spread Missing data problems Time series analysis need many more time points per OTT session treatment of trend? how incorporate survival information?

Feiveson, Alan H.↗

Assessment of Model Outcomes Between the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) and the Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT)

The Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) is a computational model that provides human health and medical risk predictions for crewed spaceflight missions. MEDPRAT utilizes discrete event modeling and dynamic probabilistic simulation to predict critical mission outcomes (total medical events, crew health index, quality time lost, loss of crew life, removal to definitive care), condition occurrences, and resource consumption. Input parameters for MEDPRAT include crew attributes (e.g., sex), types of mission activities (e.g., whether and where crew members perform an extravehicular activity (EVA)), available resources, treatment information, and probability distributions for medical conditions. As an evolution of the Integrated Medical Model (IMM), MEDPRAT provides enhanced capabilities and higher fidelity, and incorporates more appropriate assumptions for long-duration spaceflight. IMM is the currently accepted standard for quantifying spaceflight mission medical risk in NASA operations that uses a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach. MEDPRAT builds on the same logical foundation as IMM but implements the model architecture through highly optimized Monte Carlo sampling methods. An analysis is performed comparing the outputs from IMM with those from MEDPRAT V1.0 and V2.0 for the same reference missions in order to quantify similarities and differences in the model outcomes. The juxtaposition between IMM and MEDPRAT V1.0 and 2.0 shown in this report demonstrates that these two models generate very similar results; where differences in outcomes are shown, these are in accordance with the underlying assumptions and differences in the model architectures. This validation effort further establishes the credibility and reliability of the MEDPRAT software.

Matthew T Prelich↗

Prioritizing Medical Resources for Exploration Missions

Long duration missions beyond low Earth orbit introduce new constraints to the medical system. Factors such as the inability to evacuate to Earth in a timely manner, communication delay, limitations in available medical equipment, and the clinical background of the crew will all have an impact on the assessment and treatment of medical conditions. The Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) Element of NASAs Human Research Program seeks to improve the way the element derives its mitigation strategies for the risk of "Unacceptable Health and Mission Outcomes Due to Limitation of In‐flight Medical Capabilities."

Shah, R. V.↗

Recovery from vestibular ototoxicity

OBJECTIVE: Determine whether subjects with documented vestibular ototoxicity recover vestibular function and, if so, investigate the recovery dynamics. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective and retrospective reviews and repeated measures. SETTING: Clinical research and technology center. SUBJECTS: Twenty-eight subjects who received vestibulotoxic medications were followed for at least 12 months after initial treatment. CONTROLS: Our subject sample was compared with a published database of normal individuals. INTERVENTIONS: All 28 subjects received systemically administered medications known to be ototoxic. The subjects' treating physicians controlled medication, dosage, and administration schedules. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Tests of horizontal canal vestibulo-ocular function were performed. Subjects' auditory and vestibular symptoms were recorded. RESULTS: Eleven subjects (39%) showed changes in horizontal canal vestibulo-ocular gain constant (GC) and/or time constant (TC) consistent with vestibular ototoxicity. When tested 1 year after ototoxic drug administration, eight of the nine subjects who experienced ototoxic decrease in GC showed a recovery of GC to normal limits. Only one of the eight subjects who experienced ototoxic decrease in TC showed recovery of TC to within normal limits. Ototoxicity onset and recovery were independent of baseline vestibular function, and ototoxicity onset did not correlate with cumulative dose of ototoxic medication. There was no relationship between subjective symptoms and ototoxicity onset. CONCLUSIONS: Recovery of GC after vestibular ototoxicity is more commonly observed than recovery of TC. Because ototoxic changes developed and continued in an unpredictable time and manner in relation to ototoxic drug administration, we propose that once ototoxic changes in vestibulo-ocular reflex are detected, ototoxic medications should be discontinued as soon as possible.

NASA Discipline Neuroscience↗

The Integrated Medical Model - Optimizing In-flight Space Medical Systems to Reduce Crew Health Risk and Mission Impacts

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a decision support tool used by medical system planners and designers as they prepare for exploration planning activities of the Constellation program (CxP). IMM provides an evidence-based approach to help optimize the allocation of in-flight medical resources for a specified level of risk within spacecraft operational constraints. Eighty medical conditions and associated resources are represented in IMM. Nine conditions are due to Space Adaptation Syndrome. The IMM helps answer fundamental medical mission planning questions such as What medical conditions can be expected? What type and quantity of medical resources are most likely to be used?", and "What is the probability of crew death or evacuation due to medical events?" For a specified mission and crew profile, the IMM effectively characterizes the sequence of events that could potentially occur should a medical condition happen. The mathematical relationships among mission and crew attributes, medical conditions and incidence data, in-flight medical resources, potential clinical and crew health end states are established to generate end state probabilities. A Monte Carlo computational method is used to determine the probable outcomes and requires up to 25,000 mission trials to reach convergence. For each mission trial, the pharmaceuticals and supplies required to diagnose and treat prevalent medical conditions are tracked and decremented. The uncertainty of patient response to treatment is bounded via a best-case, worst-case, untreated case algorithm. A Crew Health Index (CHI) metric, developed to account for functional impairment due to a medical condition, provides a quantified measure of risk and enables risk comparisons across mission scenarios. The use of historical in-flight medical data, terrestrial surrogate data as appropriate, and space medicine subject matter expertise has enabled the development of a probabilistic, stochastic decision support tool capable of optimizing in-flight medical systems based on crew and mission parameters. This presentation will illustrate how to apply quantitative risk assessment methods to optimize the mass and volume of space-based medical systems for a space flight mission given the level of crew health and mission risk.

Kerstman, Eric↗

Microgravity Game Changers: Recent Accomplishments of Microgravity Assisted Materials Experiments on the ISS

This paper discusses important new materials, devices and technology produced in low-Earth orbit (LEO) that have been developed with funding from NASA’s In Space Production Applications (InSPA) Portfolio. In coordination with the International Space Station (ISS) National Laboratory, InSPA supports innovative small businesses and other research & development organizations to develop microgravity-assisted applications that make significant impacts in a wide variety of industries on Earth. These technology development efforts are using the microgravity of orbital space to overcome gravity-induced defects on Earth to create high-value products for terrestrial markets in the areas of semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and communications. Through 24/7/365 operation on ISS for 25 years, coupled with commercial space transportation and services to, in, and from orbit, the microgravity environment has enabled pioneering science and significant commercial applications, including novel medical advances. World-leading researchers, innovators, and space payload developers provide compelling evidence through demonstrations on the ISS that materials processing in microgravity improves outcomes for a wide range of materials and products at all levels of the organization of matter, from quantum entities such as Bose-Einstein condensates, to crystals, alloys, composites, thin films, and photonics, to stem cells, medical diagnoses, medical treatments, and medical devices for humans. As of 2026, numerous examples proved by demonstration on ISS show the potential of these technologies in various fields. In this paper, a summary of four important experiments is presented.

microgravity medical devices↗

Effects of 2.0-g 1.75-g and 1.5-g Hypergravity on Pregnancy Outcome in Rats (Rattus norvegicus)

In 1995, ten pregnant female rats were launched on the Space Shuttle (STS-70) on Gestational day(G) 11 of their 22-day pregnancy as part of the NASA/NIH.Rodent (R)2 Experiment. Following landing on G20, fetuses were harvested from half of the dams, while the remaining five dams underwent birth. Spaceflight did not interrupt pregnancy, alter litter sizes, or affect body weights or gender ratios of the fetuses or neonates. In the present study we used the NASA/NIH.R2 experimental paradigm to analyze the effects of hypergravity on pregnancy outcome. On G10, time-bred Sprague-Dawley rat dams were assigned to either G20 or Birth conditions, then further assigned to Hypergravity (HG) 2.0-g, HG 1.75-g, HG 1.5-g, Rotational Control (RC, 1.03), or Stationary Control (SC, 1.0-g) treatments. Dams were exposed to continuous centrifugation from G11 through G20, with brief daily stops for animal health checks and maintenance. For both the G20 and Birth dams, comparable litter sizes and litter gender ratios were observed across gravity conditions. However, centrifugation-exposed (HG and RC) fetuses and neonates showed significantly lower body masses (p less than 0.05) relative to SC offspring. HG 2.0-g offspring weighed significantly less than those in all other gravity conditions (p less than 0.05). The observed reductions in offspring body mass at 1.5-g and 1.75-g, can be attributed to the rotational component of centrifugation, rather than to increased gravitational load, whereas 2.0-g hypergravity exposure further exacerbated the gravity centrifugation effect on offspring body mass. Pregnant dams exposed to centrifugation weighed significantly less than SC dams (p less than 0.05), suggesting that centrifugation effects on maternal body mass may contribute to reduced size of the developing offspring. These findings are consistent with previous reports of non-pregnant adult animals suggesting that, whereas spaceflight has virtually no effect on body mass, centrifugation is associated with changes in body weight regulation.

Mills, Nicole A.↗

A vestibular phenotype for Waardenburg syndrome?

OBJECTIVE: To investigate vestibular abnormalities in subjects with Waardenburg syndrome. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective record review. SETTING: Tertiary referral neurotology clinic. SUBJECTS: Twenty-two adult white subjects with clinical diagnosis of Waardenburg syndrome (10 type I and 12 type II). INTERVENTIONS: Evaluation for Waardenburg phenotype, history of vestibular and auditory symptoms, tests of vestibular and auditory function. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Results of phenotyping, results of vestibular and auditory symptom review (history), results of vestibular and auditory function testing. RESULTS: Seventeen subjects were women, and 5 were men. Their ages ranged from 21 to 58 years (mean, 38 years). Sixteen of the 22 subjects sought treatment for vertigo, dizziness, or imbalance. For subjects with vestibular symptoms, the results of vestibuloocular tests (calorics, vestibular autorotation, and/or pseudorandom rotation) were abnormal in 77%, and the results of vestibulospinal function tests (computerized dynamic posturography, EquiTest) were abnormal in 57%, but there were no specific patterns of abnormality. Six had objective sensorineural hearing loss. Thirteen had an elevated summating/action potential (>0.40) on electrocochleography. All subjects except those with severe hearing loss (n = 3) had normal auditory brainstem response results. CONCLUSION: Patients with Waardenburg syndrome may experience primarily vestibular symptoms without hearing loss. Electrocochleography and vestibular function tests appear to be the most sensitive measures of otologic abnormalities in such patients.

NASA Discipline Neuroscience↗

Self-Guided Multimedia Stress Management and Resilience Training for Flight Controllers

Stress and anxiety-related problems are among the most common and costly behavioral health problems in society, and for those working in operational environments (i.e. astronauts, flight controllers, military) this can seriously impact crew performance, safety, and wellbeing. Technology-based interventions are effective for treating behavioral health problems, and can significantly improve the delivery of evidence-based health care. This study is evaluating the effectiveness, usefulness, and usability of a self-guided multimedia stress management and resilience training program in a randomized controlled trial (RCT) with a sample of flight controllers at Johnson Space Center. The intervention, SMART-OP (Stress Management and Resilience Training for Optimal Performance), is a six-session, cognitive behavioral-based computer program that uses self-guided, interactive activities to teach skills that can help individuals build resilience and manage stress. In a prior RCT with a sample of stressed but otherwise healthy individuals, SMART-OP reduced perceived stress and increased perceived control over stress in comparison to an Attention Control (AC) group. SMART-OP was rated as "highly useful" and "excellent" in usability and acceptability. Based on α-amylase data, individuals in SMART-OP recovered quicker and more completely from a social stress test as compared to the AC group [1]. In the current study, flight controllers are randomized either to receive SMART-OP training, or to a 6-week waitlist control period (WLC) before beginning SMART-OP. Eligible participants include JSC flight controllers and instructors without any medical or psychiatric disorder, but who are stressed based on self-report. Flight controllers provide a valid analog sample to astronauts in that they work in an operational setting, use similar terminology to astronauts, are mission-focused, and work under the same broader work culture. The study began in December 2014, and to date 79 flight controllers and instructors have expressed interest in the study, 49 of those were cleared for participation, we have screened 44 for eligibility, and 23 have met inclusion criteria. Recruitment is ongoing and the study will continue until December 2016. Outcome measures include perceived stress, perceived control over stress, resilience, mood, personality, emotion regulation, sleep, health behaviors, and psychophysiological data such as 24-hour heart rate, alpha amylase, and urinary and salivary cortisol. We are also collecting user feedback such as usability, working alliance, usefulness, and treatment credibility.

Rose, R. D.↗

Expanding Ketamine Application for Treatment of Acute Suicidality in Long-Duration Spaceflight

Introduction. The transition to exploration missions places a heightened risk on behavioral health in spaceflight. Although serious psychiatric emergencies during spaceflight have been rare, longer duration missions increase the possibility of emergence in latent mental health disorders due to genetic predisposition, increased autonomy, isolation, helplessness, loss of family member, or catastrophic events. Complicated grief and bereavement have the highest rate of suicidal ideation. Recently, ketamine has been used as an emergent intervention for acute suicidality, promoting its stability, ease of administration, favorable safety profile, and outcomes for reduction of suicidal intent. The goal of this study was to review current literature and collate the understanding of ketamine as a safe, effective pharmacological adjunct for acute suicidality in spaceflight. Methods. This literature review was conducted to collate data on ketamine use for acute suicidality and inform on stability, limitations and utilization of ketamine within extreme environments. Results. 122 publications were reviewed for relevance including 23 randomized-control trials for ketamine use in behavioral emergencies. Discussion. Ketamine is a diverse pharmaceutical with multiple advantageous indications, including acute suicidality, pain, and sedation. Terrestrial use of ketamine suggests a rapidly efficacious medication for reduction in acute suicidality. As behavioral stressors expand related to extended missions, contingencies for behavioral emergencies become increasingly important. Although this review is not intended to re-develop current International Space Station (ISS) protocols, it is the first to discuss the benefits of ketamine in spaceflight as a potential safe, effective multifaceted tool for future exploration missions and treatment for acute suicidal ideation.

Ketamine, Suicidality, Spaceflight↗

A Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk Model

Asteroid threat assessment requires the quantification of both the impact likelihood and resulting consequence across the range of possible events. This paper presents a probabilistic asteroid impact risk (PAIR) assessment model developed for this purpose. The model incorporates published impact frequency rates with state-of-the-art consequence assessment tools, applied within a Monte Carlo framework that generates sets of impact scenarios from uncertain parameter distributions. Explicit treatment of atmospheric entry is included to produce energy deposition rates that account for the effects of thermal ablation and object fragmentation. These energy deposition rates are used to model the resulting ground damage, and affected populations are computed for the sampled impact locations. The results for each scenario are aggregated into a distribution of potential outcomes that reflect the range of uncertain impact parameters, population densities, and strike probabilities. As an illustration of the utility of the PAIR model, the results are used to address the question of what minimum size asteroid constitutes a threat to the population. To answer this question, complete distributions of results are combined with a hypothetical risk tolerance posture to provide the minimum size, given sets of initial assumptions. Model outputs demonstrate how such questions can be answered and provide a means for interpreting the effect that input assumptions and uncertainty can have on final risk-based decisions. Model results can be used to prioritize investments to gain knowledge in critical areas or, conversely, to identify areas where additional data has little effect on the metrics of interest.

Asteroid↗