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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

Machine learning to predict final fire size at the time of ignition

Fires in boreal forests of Alaska are changing, threatening human health and ecosystems. Given expected increases in fire activity with climate warming, insight into the controls on fire size from the time of ignition is necessary. Such insight may be increasingly useful for fire management, especially in cases where many ignitions occur in a short time period. Here we investigated the controls and predictability of final fire size at the time of ignition. Using decision trees, we show that ignitions can be classified as leading to small, medium or large fires with 50.4 ± 5.2% accuracy. This was accomplished using two variables: vapour pressure deficit and the fraction of spruce cover near the ignition point. The model predicted that 40% of ignitions would lead to large fires, and those ultimately accounted for 75% of the total burned area. Other machine learning classification algorithms, including random forests and multi-layer perceptrons, were tested but did not outperform the simpler decision tree model. Applying the model to areas with intensive human management resulted in overprediction of large fires, as expected. This type of simple classification system could offer insight into optimal resource allocation, helping to maintain a historical fire regime and protect Alaskan ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Sensitivity of Pyrocumulus Convection to Tree Mortality During the 2020 Creek Fire in California

Abstract This study investigated the sensitivity of pyrocumulonimbus (PyroCb) induced by the California Creek fire of 2020 to the amount and type of surface fuels, within the WRF‐SFIRE modeling system. Satellite data were used to derive fire arrival times to constrain fire progression, and to augment the fuel characterization with better estimates of combustible vegetation accounting for tree mortality. Machine learning was employed to classify standing dead vegetation from aerial imagery, which was then added as a custom fuel class along with the standard Anderson fuel categories. Simulations using this new fuel class produced a larger and more vigorous PyroCb than the control run, however, still under‐predicted the cloud top. Additional augmentation of fuel mass to represent the accumulation of dead vegetation on the forest floor further improved the simulations, demonstrating the efficacy of representing both dead standing and fallen vegetation to produce more realistic PyroCb and smoke simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Sensor Reduction for Diversion Detection in a Realistic Heat Pipe Microreactor Using Supervised Machine Learning

Microreactors are designed as a smaller, cheaper, and safer alternative to traditional nuclear power plants. Their non-traditional characteristics and prospect of mass production and deployment will likely require new approaches to nuclear safeguards. The primary proliferation concern with microreactors is the diversion of fuel material. Such diversion may produce measurable defects in key physical attributes like neutron flux, which may in turn be detectable using machine learning models. Preliminary work has demonstrated this ability for modeled nominal and diversion scenarios using large quantities of energy integrated neutron flux data. In practice, the number of available sensors for such measurements will be limited and energy integrated flux information will not be available. This work explores the ability of tree-based gradient boosted ensemble models to classify a given microreactor core is nominal or diversion, and determine the number of fuel pins diverted in the case of diversion with reduced numbers of sensors and more realistic detector responses. Classification accuracy of greater than 98% and regression errors as low as 5% of the total number of fuel pins were achieved with as few as 15 sensors, compared to 99% and 4.1% with a maximum of 240 sensors.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Understanding Fission Gas Bubble Distribution and Zirconium Redistribution in Neutron-irradiated U-Zr Metallic Fuel Using Machine Learning

U-10wt.% Zr (U-10Zr) based metallic fuel is the leading candidate for next-generation sodium cooled fast reactor in United States. Currently, Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has been the leading national laboratory for research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) on metallic fuel. Advanced post-irradiation characterization will help to understand fuel microstructure and property change during irradiation, benefiting fuel qualification for commercial application. Characterization capabilities ranging from sub-nanometer to micrometer, such as scanning electron microscopy (SEM), focused ion beam (FIB) sampling, transmission electron microscopy (TEM) characterization, and local thermal conductivity microscopy (TCM), have been utilized recently on irradiated U-10Zr fuel samples to gain a better understanding of nuclear fuel microstructure and property evolution inside a reactor. The FIB/SEM coupled with energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS) can capture the essential information to achieve better understanding of fuel behaviors. Inside a nuclear reactor, the phase and microstructure of U-10Zr is constantly changing under neutron bombardment. For example, the gaseous fission product atoms have a limited solubility inside fuel matrix and tend to precipitate out in bubble form, which not only contribute to fuel thermal conductivity degradation but also provide a shortcut for movement of fission products, i.e. lanthanides. The resultant deposition of lanthanides at the cladding inner surface will potentially trigger a chemical reaction/interaction between nuclear fuel and cladding at reactor operational conditions, threatening fuel integrity and safety. FIB/SEM coupled with EDS can provide the fission bubble information as well as probe into phase separation or Zr redistribution, which is fundamental to predict the fuel performance. With high velocity image data generating method, such as FIB/SEM, an automatic way to extract the microstructural information quantitively can better serve the needs from post irradiation characterization. A trained machine learning model, named Decision Tree, is employed to generate a bubble classifier and to categorize bubbles into three categories: isolated bubble, connected without lanthanides, and connected with lanthanides bubbles[3]. This work presents a showcase of this approach on six regions of a fuel cross-section along the radial temperature gradient. We obtained distributions of bubble categories and porosity rates along the six regions. Moreover, a secondary phase U-Zr2 was determined and found on regions 5 and 6. The secondary phase fraction was increasing from 15.61% in region 5 to 34.79% in region 6 based on this approach . This quantitative data offers insights into the lanthanide migration and potentially thermal conductivity degradation. This information from machine learning will be fed into fuel design code for better prediction of fuel performance.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Integrating Predictions for Improving Defect Classification Accuracy in NDT-based Assessment of Concrete - 20229

There is an increasing need to create predictive models for defect classification in concrete using the output of non-destructive testing (NDT) techniques. Recent advancement of machine-learning algorithms has offered several techniques for developing classification models for different types of data sets. However, the performance of these algorithms is very uncertain, mainly when applied to small and noisy datasets. For example, when human access is limited (e.g., nuclear facility), robot-based NDT is preferred. But compared to manual tests with humans present on site, the data sets are small, and more noise can exist. Therefore, it is imperative to develop new approaches to ensure a consistently high classification accuracy for inadequate data sets. This study explores the classification performance on NDT dataset using classifiers from different machine-learning algorithms, namely k-Nearest Neighbor (kNN), Decision Tree, Naive Bayes, Logistic Regression, and Support Vector Machine (SVM). The authors further integrated the predictions from these classifiers using proposed methods. The integration strategy combines the output of the classifiers based on two different measures, accuracy, and performance (ACC and PERF), using equations such as sum, average, and square-root-of-sums-of-squares (SRSS). Our results reveal varying classification accuracies across individual classifiers with different misclassifications across the test data set. The integration strategy provided significant improvement in the classification accuracy compared to the individual classifiers. Furthermore, the results indicate minimal variation across the integration methods as compared to the variation across the individual classifiers. To conclude, prediction integration offers a unique approach for combining the output of multiple classifiers to create redundancies with the potential of achieving high classification performance and improved reliability in predictive models for defect detection in concrete. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Metabolomics Assay to Diagnose Citrus Huanglongbing Disease and to Aid in Assessment of Treatments to Prevent or Cure Infection

Citrus greening disease, or Huanglongbing (HLB), has devastated citrus crops globally in recent years. The causal bacterium, ‘ Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus’, presents a sampling issue for qPCR diagnostics and results in a high false negative rate. In this work, we compared six metabolomics assays to identify HLB-infected citrus trees from leaf tissue extracted from 30 control and 30 HLB-infected trees. A liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry-based assay was most accurate. A final partial least squares-discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) model was trained and validated on 690 leaf samples with corresponding qPCR measures from three citrus varieties (Rio Red grapefruit, Hamlin sweet orange, and Valencia sweet orange) from orchards in Florida and Texas. Trees were naturally infected with HLB transmitted by the insect vector Diaphorina citri. In a randomized validation set, the assay was 99.9% accurate to classify diseased from nondiseased samples. This model was applied to samples from trees receiving plant defense-inducer compounds or biological treatments to prevent or cure HLB infection. From two trials, HLB-related metabolite abundances and PLS-DA scores were tracked longitudinally and compared with those of control trees. We demonstrate how our assay can assess tree health and the efficacy of HLB treatments and conclude that no trialed treatment was efficacious.

Plant Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2023

A bacterial sensor taxonomy across earth ecosystems for machine learning applications

Microbial communities have evolved to colonize all ecosystems of the planet, from the deep sea to the human gut. Microbes survive by sensing, responding, and adapting to immediate environmental cues. This process is driven by signal transduction proteins such as histidine kinases, which use their sensing domains to bind or otherwise detect environmental cues and “transduce” signals to adjust internal processes. We hypothesized that an ecosystem’s unique stimuli leave a sensor “fingerprint,” able to identify and shed insight on ecosystem conditions. To test this, we collected 20,712 publicly available metagenomes from Host-associated, Environmental, and Engineered ecosystems across the globe. We extracted and clustered the collection’s nearly 18M unique sensory domains into 113,712 similar groupings with MMseqs2. We built gradient-boosted decision tree machine learning models and found we could classify the ecosystem type (accuracy: 87%) and predict the levels of different physical parameters (R2 score: 83%) using the sensor cluster abundance as features. Feature importance enables identification of the most predictive sensors to differentiate between ecosystems which can lead to mechanistic interpretations if the sensor domains are well annotated. To demonstrate this, a machine learning model was trained to predict patient’s disease state and used to identify domains related to oxygen sensing present in a healthy gut but missing in patients with abnormal conditions. Moreover, since 98.7% of identified sensor domains are uncharacterized, importance ranking can be used to prioritize sensors to determine what ecosystem function they may be sensing. Furthermore, these new predictive sensors can function as targets for novel sensor engineering with applications in biotechnology, ecosystem maintenance, and medicine.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Use of vision and sound to classify feller-buncher operational state

Productivity measures in logging involve simultaneous recognition and classification of event occurrence and timing, and the volume of stems being handled. In full-tree felling systems these measurements are difficult to implement in an autonomous manner because of the unfavorable working environment and the abundance of confounding extraneous events. This paper proposed a vision method that used a lowcost camera to recognize feller-buncher operational events including tree cutting and piling. It used a fine K-nearest neighbors (fKNN) algorithm as the final classifier based on both audio and video features derived from short video segments as inputs. The classifier’s calibration accuracy exceeds 94%. The trained model was tested on videos recorded under various conditions. The overall accurate rates for short segments were greater than 89%. Comparisons were made between the human- and algorithm derived event detection rates, events’ durations, and inter-event timing using continuously recorded videos taken during feller operation. Video results between the fKNN model and manual observation were similar. Statistical comparison using the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test to evaluate measured parameters’ distributions (manual versus automated event duration and inter-event timing) did not show significant differences with the lowest P-value among all Kolmogorov–Smirnov tests equal to 0.12. Here the result indicated the feasibility and potential of using the method for the automatic time study of drive-to-tree feller bunchers.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Results of the Photometric LSST Astronomical Time-series Classification Challenge (PLAsTiCC)

Abstract Next-generation surveys like the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) on the Vera C. Rubin Observatory (Rubin) will generate orders of magnitude more discoveries of transients and variable stars than previous surveys. To prepare for this data deluge, we developed the Photometric LSST Astronomical Time-series Classification Challenge (PLAsTiCC), a competition that aimed to catalyze the development of robust classifiers under LSST-like conditions of a nonrepresentative training set for a large photometric test set of imbalanced classes. Over 1000 teams participated in PLAsTiCC, which was hosted in the Kaggle data science competition platform between 2018 September 28 and 2018 December 17, ultimately identifying three winners in 2019 February. Participants produced classifiers employing a diverse set of machine-learning techniques including hybrid combinations and ensemble averages of a range of approaches, among them boosted decision trees, neural networks, and multilayer perceptrons. The strong performance of the top three classifiers on Type Ia supernovae and kilonovae represent a major improvement over the current state of the art within astronomy. This paper summarizes the most promising methods and evaluates their results in detail, highlighting future directions both for classifier development and simulation needs for a next-generation PLAsTiCC data set.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Photosynthetic parameters and nutrient content of trees at the Panama crane sites.

This data package contains leaf chemistry and photosynthetic traits data from trees within the NGEE Tropics Parque Natural Metropolitano (PA-PNM) and Bosque Protector San Lorenzo (PA-SLZ) sites in Panama. Photosynthetic parameters including maximum photosynthesis, Vcmax, Jmax, and TPU, were calculated from A/Ci curves. Foliar nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations and leaf mass per unit leaf area of the leaves also were determined. The plants that were sampled were classified as to species, family, order, clade, and growth form (tree, liana, perennial herb, or other). Wood density of the tree and the source of that data also are included. Included in this data package is a zip file with a single Excel data file and CSV copies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Predicting Storm Outages Through New Representations of Weather and Vegetation

This paper presents new developments in an outage prediction model (OPM) for an electric distribution network in the Northeastern United States and assesses their significance to the OPM performance. The OPM uses regression tree models fed by numerical weather prediction outputs, spatially distributed information on soil, vegetation, electric utility assets, and historical power outage data to forecast the number and spatial distribution of outages across the power distribution grid. New modules introduced hereby consist in 1) a storm classifier based on weather variables; 2) a multimodel optimization of regression tree output; and 3) a post-processing routine for more accurately describing tree-leaf conditions. Model implementations are tested through leave-one-storm-out cross-validations performed on 120 storms of varying intensity and characteristics. The results demonstrate that the median absolute percentage error of the new OPM version decreased from 130% to 59% for outage predictions at the service territory level, and the OPM skills for operational forecasts are consistent with the skills based on historical storm analyses.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Segmentation and Classification of Fission as Pores in Reactor Irradiated Annular U–10Zr Metallic Fuel Using Machine Learning Models

Metallic fuels, particularly U—10Zr, are promising candidates for next-generation sodium-cooled fast reactors. Irradiation of nuclear fuels in reactors can lead to the formation of solid and gas fission product which subsequently forms microstructural pores, deteriorating fuel performance. Due to the massive amount of pores and complex phases formed, a quantitative description of fission gas pores is not yet available, preventing the development of microstructure-informed fuel performance modeling for fuel qualification. This paper applied a pre-trained deep learning model to ~10,260 high magnification scanning electron microscopy images. This method increased the accuracy of fission gas pore segmentation and allows statistical features to be extracted which cannot be achieved manually. A pre-trained decision tree model worked on the segemenation results and further classified the pores into different categories to produce a correlation between the pores, movement of lanthanides, and temperature gradient during irradiation. Finally, this paper emphasizes the potentials of machine learning models to accelerate fuel research, development, and qualification for advanced reactors.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2019

CT-based machine learning model to predict the Fuhrman nuclear grade of clear cell renal cell carcinoma

Purpose: To predict the Fuhrman grade of clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC) with a machine learning classifier based on single- or three-phase computed tomography (CT) images. Materials and methods: Patients with pathologically proven ccRCC from February 1, 2009 to September 31, 2018 who were not treated were retrospectively collected for machine learning-based analysis. The texture features were extracted and ranked from precontrast phase (PCP), corticomedullary phase (CMP), nephrographic phase (NP) and three-phase CT images, and open-source gradient boosting from the decision tree library of CatBoost was used to establish a machine learning classifier to differentiate low- from high-grade ccRCC. The performances of machine learning classifiers based on features from single- and three-phase CT images were compared with each other. Results: A total of 231 patients with 232 pathologically proven ccRCC lesions were retrospectively collected. 35, 36, 41, and 22 Features were extracted and ranked from PCP, CMP, NP, and three-phase CT images, respectively. The machine learning model based on three-phase CT images [area under the ROC curve (AUC) = 0.87] achieved the best diagnostic performance for differentiating low- from high-grade ccRCC, followed by single-phase NP (AUC = 0.84), CMP (AUC = 0.80), and PCP images (AUC = 0.82). Conclusion: Machine learning classifiers can be promising noninvasive techniques to differentiate low- and high-Fuhrman nuclear grade ccRCC, and classifiers based on three-phase CT images are superior to those based on features from each single phase.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Using a Neural Network Classifier to Select Galaxies with the Most Accurate Photometric Redshifts

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will produce several billion photometric redshifts (photo-z's), enabling cosmological analyses to select a subset of galaxies with the most accurate photo-z. For this work, we perform initial redshift fits on Subaru Strategic Program galaxies with deep grizy photometry using Trees for Photo-Z (TPZ) before applying a custom neural network classifier (NNC) tuned to select galaxies with (z phot – z spec )/(1 + z spec ) < 0.10. We consider four cases of training and test sets ranging from an idealized case to using data augmentation to increase the representation of dim galaxies in the training set. Selections made using the NNC yield significant further improvements in outlier fraction and photo-z scatter (σ z ) over those made with typical photo-z uncertainties. As an example, when selecting the best third of the galaxy sample, the NNC achieves a 35% improvement in outlier rate and a 23% improvement in σ z compared to using uncertainties from TPZ. For cosmology and galaxy evolution studies, this method can be tuned to retain a particular sample size or to achieve a desired photo-z accuracy; our results show that it is possible to retain more than a third of an LSST-like galaxy sample while reducing σ z by a factor of 2 compared to the full sample, with one-fifth as many photo-z outliers. For surveys like LSST that are not limited by shot noise, this method enables a larger number of tomographic redshift bins and hence a significant increase in the total signal to noise of galaxy angular power spectra.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Outage Cause Classification of Power Distribution Systems with Machine Learning and Real-World Data

Power distribution systems are geographically dispersed by nature. It may be affected by various factors, such as vegetation, weather, animal and human behaviors. Present response procedures to an outage event massively rely on expert experience and thus tend to be time-consuming. Automatic outage event detection and classification will help to reduce the responding and restoration time. However, this issue is less addressed with existing research done in this area. In this applied research, a set of waveform pre-processing techniques are first proposed to prepare the waveform data for being used as inputs to the classification algorithm. Further, a machine learning-based algorithm is proposed to classify the outage events according to their root causes, e.g. tree contact, animal contact, lightning, etc. Available data include three phase current & voltage waveforms and contextual information during the distribution system outages. The proposed machine learning algorithm takes the current and voltage waveforms as direct inputs in search of features that humans are unable to capture. Real data provided by a distribution company in the East Tennessee region is used to test the proposed pre-processing techniques and the classification algorithm.

Sun, Haoyuan↗
DOE OSTI2021

Failure prediction and estimation of failure parameters

Machine-learning methods and apparatus are disclosed to determine frictional state or other parameters in an earthquake zone or other failing medium, using acoustic emission, seismic waves, or other detectable indicators of microscopic processes. Predictions of future failures are demonstrated in different regimes. A classifier is trained using time series of acoustic emission data along with historic data of frictional state or failure events. In disclosed examples, random forests and gradient boost trees are used, and grid-search or EGO procedures are used for hyperparameter tuning. Once trained, the classifier can be applied to testing or live data in order to assess a frictional state, assess seismic hazard, or make predictions regarding a future failure event. The technology has been developed in a double direct shear apparatus, but can be widely applied to seismic faults, other terrestrial failures, or failures in man-made structures. Variations are disclosed.

Johnson, Paul Allan↗
DOE OSTI2020

TreeSAPP: the Tree-based Sensitive and Accurate Phylogenetic Profiler

Microbial communities drive matter and energy transformations integral to global biogeochemical cycles, yet many taxonomic groups facilitating these processes remain poorly represented in biological sequence databases. Due to this missing information, taxonomic assignment of sequences from environmental genomes remains inaccurate. We present the Tree-based Sensitive and Accurate Phylogenetic Profiler (TreeSAPP) software for functionally and taxonomically classifying genes, reactions and pathways from genomes of cultivated and uncultivated microorganisms using reference packages representing coding sequences mediating multiple globally relevant biogeochemical cycles. TreeSAPP uses linear regression of evolutionary distance on taxonomic rank to improve classifications, assigning both closely related and divergent query sequences at the appropriate taxonomic rank. TreeSAPP is able to provide quantitative functional and taxonomic classifications for both assembled and unassembled sequences and files supporting interactive tree of life visualizations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learning Correlation of Electron Micrographs and ToF-SIMS for the Analysis of Organic Biomarkers in Mudstone

The spatial distribution of organics in geological samples can be used to determine when and how these organics were incorporated into the host rock. Mass spectrometry (MS) imaging can rapidly collect a large amount of data, but ions produced are mixed without discrimination, resulting in complex mass spectra that can be difficult to interpret. Here, we apply unsupervised and supervised machine learning (ML) to help interpret spectra from time-of-flight-secondary ion mass spectrometry (ToF-SIMS) of an organic-carbon-rich mudstone of the Middle Jurassic of England (UK). It was previously shown that the presence of sterane molecular biomarkers in this sample can be detected via ToF-SIMS (Pasterski, M. J. et al., Astrobiology 2023, 23, 936). We use unsupervised ML on scanning electron microscopy–electron dispersive spectroscopy (SEM-EDS) measurements to define compositional categories based on differences in elemental abundances. We then test the ability of four ML algorithms─k-nearest neighbors (KNN), recursive partitioning and regressive trees (RPART), eXtreme gradient boost (XGBoost), and random forest (RF)─to classify the ToF-SIM spectra using (1) the categories assigned via SEM-EDS, (2) organic and inorganic labels assigned via SEM-EDS, and (3) the presence or absence of detectable steranes in ToF-SIMS spectra. In terms of predictive accuracy and balanced accuracy, KNN was the best performing model and RPART the worst. The feature importance, or the specific features of the ToF-SIM spectra used by the models to make classifications, cannot be determined for KNN, preventing posthoc model interpretation. Nevertheless, the feature importance extracted from the other models was useful for interpreting spectra. In conclusion, we determined that some of the organic ions used to classify biomarker containing spectra may be fragment ions derived from kerogen which is abundant in this mudstone sample.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗