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At least 55 records · Page 3

Thermal Tides During the 2001 Martian Global-Scale Dust Storm

The 2001 (Mars Year 25) global dust storm radically altered the dynamics of the Martian atmosphere. Using observations from the Thermal Emission Spectrometer onboard the Mars Global Surveyor spacecraft and Mars WRF general circulation model simulations, we examine the changes to thermal tides and planetary waves caused by the storm. We find that the extratropical diurnal migrating tide is dramatically enhanced during the storm, particularly in the southern hemisphere, reaching amplitudes of more than 20 K. The tropical diurnal migrating tide is weakened to almost undetectable levels. The diurnal Kelvin waves are also significantly weakened, particularly during the period of global expansion at Ls=200deg-210deg. In contrast, the westward propagating diurnal wavenumber 2 tide strengthens to 4-8 K at altitudes above 30km. The wavenumber 1 stationary wave reaches amplitudes of 10-12 K at 50deg-70degN, far larger than is typically seen during this time of year. The phase of this stationary wave and the enhancement of the diurnal wavenumber 2 tide appear to be responses to the high-altitude westward propagating equatorial wavenumber 1 structure in dust mixing ratio observed during the storm in previous works. This work provides a global picture of dust storm wave dynamics that reveals the coupling between the tropics and high-latitude wave responses. We conclude that the zonal distribution of thermotidal forcing from atmospheric aerosol concentration is as important to understanding the atmospheric wave response as the total global mean aerosol optical depth.

Thermal tides↗

Responses of Precipitation and Hydrologic Processes to Tropical SST

The goal of the research is to identify the mechanisms in the response of tropical precipitation and atmospheric hydrologic cycle to sea surface temperature (SST) variability at seasonal-to-interannual time scales, and to utilize the knowledge for better understanding of climate feedback processes relevant to global change. As a first step to achieve the goal, we characterize the inter-relationship among convective/stratiform rain, ice/water clouds water vapor, and SST using TRMM satellite data and a cloud-resolving model. We examined the daily hydrologic variables [column water vapor (PW), cloud liquid water (CW), rainfall rates (RR)] as a function of SST using high-resolution data (0.25 x 0.25, daily) derived from TRMM satellite measurements. Comparing the winter of 97/98 (El Nino condition) against the winter of 99/00 (La Nina condition), area-mean values of all four hydrologic variables in cloudy areas within the tropical Pacific are higher in the El Nino winter than in the La Nina winter. This is consistent with previous observational analyses and SST warming experiments (idealized or ENSO-like) that showed the interaction between hydrologic cyclic and radiation at the seasonal to interannual time scales leads to intensified tropical circulation and hydrologic cycle. However, there is evidence that the enhanced hydrologic cycle over the warm pool is accompanied by an expansion of radiatively -driven subsidence in response to a stronger SST gradient between warm pool and surrounding cold pool. The expanding subsidence effectively reduces cloud amounts over the warm pool. Our analysis of daily variability further indicates a more vigorous water cycle characterized by higher PW, CW, and RR in response to overall warming. This is expected from the Clausius Clapeyron relation as a thermodynamic response to warming. However cloudy areas decrease in response to overall warming. This may be due to factors that are fundamentally different. One possibility is that in a warmer climate, there may be alteration in the microphysical processes in clouds, e.g., increased coalescence of cloud size droplets and increased entrainment of dry air from above due to the invigorated convective motions in response to overall warming. As a result, cloud amounts are less. Another interpretation is that, in colder air masses, more ice particles will be produced and, because of their lower densities, are less likely to precipitate, hence the higher cloud amount. This suggests that, when averaged over a sufficiently large area covering both the rising and sinking branches of the tropical circulation, there maybe an increase in the precipitation efficiency in stratiform clouds, in conjunction with increased subsidence in an enhanced water cycle. This is supported by the residence time at different rainrates.

Sui, C.-H.↗

Secondary Forests from Agricultural Abandonment in Amazonia 2000-2009

Ongoing negotiations to include reducing emissions from tropical deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) in a post-Kyoto climate agreement highlight the critical role of satellite data for accurate and transparent accounting of forest cover changes. In addition to deforestation and degradation, knowledge of secondary forest dynamics is essential for full carbon accounting under REDD+. Land abandonment to secondary forests also frames one of the key tradeoffs for agricultural production in tropical forest countries-whether to incentivize secondary forest growth (for carbon sequestration and biodiversity conservation) or low-carbon expansion of agriculture or biofuels production in areas of secondary forests. We examined patterns of land abandonment to secondary forest across the arc of deforestation in Brazil and Bolivia using time series of annual Landsat and MODIS data from 2000-2009. Rates of land abandonment to secondary forest during 2002-2006 were less than 5% of deforestation rates in these years. Small areas of new secondary forest were scattered across the entire arc of deforestation, rather than concentrated in any specific region of the basin. Taken together, our analysis of the satellite data record emphasizes the difficulties of addressing the pool of new secondary forests in the context of REDD+ in Amazonia. Due to the small total area of secondary forests, land sparing through agricultural intensification will be an important element of efforts to reduce deforestation rates under REDD+ while improving agricultural productivity in Amazonia.

Morton, Douglas↗

Investigating the Potential Range Expansion of the Vector Mosquito Aedes Aegypti in Mexico with NASA Earth Science Remote Sensing Results

Dengue (Breakbone) fever is caused by one of four viruses carried by mosquitoes in tropical and subtropical areas. Cases have increased dramatically in the past few decades; there are currently approximately 100 million infections annually around the globe. Our project will integrate environmental observations, including weather, land use, vegetation type, amount and greenness, soil moisture, and mosquito populations with investigations of the human dynamics of the system via household surveys.

Estes, Sue M.↗

Future Projection of Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Troughs and Implications for Tropical Cyclone Activity

Summertime tropical upper-tropospheric troughs (TUTTs) provide a unified framework to better understand how extratropical and tropical forcings jointly modulate basin-scale tropical cyclone (TC) activity. In this study, we examine future changes in TUTTs and their implications for TC activity. Multimodel ensemble-mean projections from 45 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models suggest a contraction of the Pacific TUTT and an expansion of the Atlantic TUTT as the climate warms. Consistently, future changes in environment-based TC indices indicate that the large-scale conditions will become more favorable for TC genesis and intensification over the central North Pacific but less favorable over the tropical North Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. Utilizing a TC-permitting large-ensemble dataset [i.e., the Database for Policy Decision-Making for Future Climate Change (d4PDF)] that adequately captures the observed interannual TUTT–TC relationships, we further confirm the impacts of projected TUTT changes on the TC activity in a warmer climate. In contrast, the TUTT–TC relationship is poorly represented in most CMIP6 High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) models; such deficiencies call for caution when assessing future TC risk based on explicitly tracked TCs in these models. Additionally, CMIP6 projections show large intermodel spread in TUTT changes, implying uncertainty in projected TC activity, especially over the central-to-eastern Pacific and the North Atlantic. This intermodel spread is associated with interhemispheric sea surface temperature warming asymmetry, which leads to a meridional shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the simultaneous weakening or strengthening of TUTTs in the North Pacific and North Atlantic. The potential contributions of anthropogenic aerosol forcing and oceanic circulation to this interhemispheric warming asymmetry are briefly examined.

Climate Change↗

A bioenergy-focused versus a reforestation-focused mitigation pathway yields disparate carbon storage and climate responses

Limiting global warming to 2 °C requires urgent action on land-based mitigation. This study evaluates the biogeochemical and biogeophysical implications of two alternative land-based mitigation scenarios that aim to achieve the same radiative forcing. One scenario is primarily driven by bioenergy expansion (SSP226Lu-BIOCROP), while the other involves re/afforestation (SSP126Lu-REFOREST). We find that overall, SSP126Lu-REFOREST is a more efficient strategy for removing CO2 from the atmosphere by 2100, resulting in a net carbon sink of 242 ~ 483 PgC with smaller uncertainties compared to SSP226Lu-BIOCROP, which exhibits a wider range of -78 ~ 621 PgC. However, SSP126Lu-REFOREST leads to a relatively warmer planetary climate than SSP226Lu-BIOCROP, and this relative warming can be intensified in certain re/afforested regions where local climates are not favorable for tree growth. Despite the cooling effect on a global scale, SSP226Lu-BIOCROP reshuffles regional warming hotspots, amplifying summer temperatures in vulnerable tropical regions such as Central Africa and Southeast Asia. Our findings highlight the need for strategic land use planning to identify suitable regions for re/afforestation and bioenergy expansion, thereby improving the likelihood of achieving the intended climate mitigation outcomes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Principal modes of intraseasonal variations in atmospheric angular momentum and tropical convection

Five-day National Meteorological Center wind and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data are used here to study the seasonal, intraseasonal variation of angular momentum and its relationship with tropical convection. It is found that the zonally averaged u component and the zonally averaged OLR show pronounced periodicities around 30-60 days. The globally averaged zonal wind at 250 mbar exhibits strong seasonal variation in connection with the expansion and contraction of the easterly and westerly belt. At upper levels this is manifested as the poleward and equatorward migration of the subtropical jet streams. Results show that the 30- to 60-day oscillation in 250 mbar zonal mean wind and OLR can be represented by three basic meridional structures: tropical modes, tropical-subtropical modes, and extratropical modes.

Lau, K.-M.↗

Recent Biomass Burning in the Tropics and Related Changes in Tropospheric Ozone

Biomass burning is an important source of chemical precursors of tropospheric ozone. In the tropics, biomass burning produces ozone enhancements over broad regions of Indonesia, Africa, and South America including Brazil. Fires are intentionally set in these regions during the dry season each year to clear cropland and to clear land for human/industrial expansion. In Indonesia enhanced burning occurs during dry El Nino conditions such as in 1997 and 2006. These burning activities cause enhancement in atmospheric particulates and trace gases which are harmful to human health. Measurements from the Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) from October 2004-November 2008 are used to evaluate the effects of biomass burning on tropical tropospheric ozone. These measurements show sizeable decreases approx.15-20% in ozone in Brazil during 2008 compared to 2007 which we attribute to the reduction in biomass burning. Three broad biomass burning regions in the tropics (South America including Brazil, western Africa, and Indonesia) were analyzed in the context of OMI/MLS measurements and the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) chemical transport model developed at Goddard Space Flight Center. The results indicate that the impact of biomass burning on ozone is significant within and near the burning regions with increases of approx.10-25% in tropospheric column ozone relative to average background concentrations. The model suggests that about half of the increases in ozone from these burning events come from altitudes below 3 km. Globally the model indicates increases of approx.4-5% in ozone, approx.7-9% in NO, (NO+NO2), and approx.30-40% in CO.

Ziemke↗

NASA's spacecraft data system

The NASA Small Explorer Data System (SEDS), a space flight data system developed to support the Small Explorer (SMEX) project, is addressed. The system was flown on the Solar Anomalous Magnetospheric Particle Explorer (SAMPEX) SMEX mission, and with reconfiguration for different requirements will fly on the X-ray Timing Explorer (XTE) and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). SEDS is also foreseen for the Hubble repair mission. Its name was changed to Spacecraft Data System (SDS) in view of expansions. Objectives, SDS hardware, and software are described. Each SDS box contains two computers, data storage memory, uplink (command) reception circuitry, downlink (telemetry) encoding circuitry, Instrument Telemetry Controller (ITC), and spacecraft timing circuitry. The SDS communicates with other subsystems over the MIL-STD-1773 data bus. The SDS software uses a real time Operating System (OS) and the C language. The OS layer, communications and scheduling layer, application task layer, and diagnostic software, are described. Decisions on the use of advanced technologies, such as ASIC's (Application Specific Integrated Circuits) and fiber optics, led to technical improvements, such as lower power and weight, without increasing the risk associated with the data system. The result was a successful SAMPEX development, integration and test, and mission using SEDS, and the upgrading of that system to SDS for TRMM and XTE.

Cudmore, Alan↗

Climate and the Global Famine of 1876-78

From 1875 to 1878, concurrent multiyear droughts in Asia, Brazil, and Africa, referred to as the Great Drought, caused widespread crop failures, catalyzing the so-called Global Famine, which had fatalities exceeding 50 million people and long-lasting societal consequences. Observations, paleoclimate reconstructions, and climate model simulations are used 1) to demonstrate the severity and characterize the evolution of drought across different regions, and 2) to investigate the underlying mechanisms driving its multiyear persistence. Severe or record-setting droughts occurred on continents in both hemispheres and in multiple seasons, with the "Monsoon Asia" region being the hardest hit, experiencing the single most intense and the second most expansive drought in the last 800 years. The extreme severity, duration, and extent of this global event is associated with an extraordinary combination of preceding cool tropical Pacific conditions (1870-76), a record-breaking El Nino (1877-78), a record strong Indian Ocean dipole (1877), and record warm North Atlantic Ocean (1878) conditions. Composites of historical analogs and two sets of ensemble simulations - one forced with global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and another forced with tropical Pacific SST - were used to distinguish the role of the extreme conditions in different ocean basins. While the drought in most regions was largely driven by the tropical Pacific SST conditions, an extreme positive phase of the Indian Ocean dipole and warm North Atlantic SSTs, both likely aided by the strong El Nino in 1877-78, intensified and prolonged droughts in Australia and Brazil, respectively, and extended the impact to northern and southeastern Africa. Climatic conditions that caused the Great Drought and Global Famine arose from natural variability, and their recurrence, with hydrological impacts intensified by global warming, could again potentially undermine global food security.

multi-year drought↗

Loggers and Forest Fragmentation: Behavioral Models of Road Building in the Amazon Basin

Although a large literature now exists on the drivers of tropical deforestation, less is known about its spatial manifestation. This is a critical shortcoming in our knowledge base since the spatial pattern of land-cover change and forest fragmentation, in particular, strongly affect biodiversity. The purpose of this article is to consider emergent patterns of road networks, the initial proximate cause of fragmentation in tropical forest frontiers. Specifically, we address the road-building processes of loggers who are very active in the Amazon landscape. To this end, we develop an explanation of road expansions, using a positive approach combining a theoretical model of economic behavior with geographic information systems (GIs) software in order to mimic the spatial decisions of road builders. We simulate two types of road extensions commonly found in the Amazon basin in a region: showing the fishbone pattern of fragmentation. Although our simulation results are only partially successful, they call attention to the role of multiple agents in the landscape, the importance of legal and institutional constraints on economic behavior, and the power of GIs as a research tool.

Arima, Eugenio Y.↗

Forced Patterns of Sea Level Rise in the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble From 1920 to 2100

To provide context for observed sea level rise, the forced response (FR) in dynamic sea level (DSL) during the 20th and 21st centuries is examined in the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (LE). After accounting for simulation drift, which in the LE is sizable, the DSL FR is found to be complex, both in space and time. Its evolving character is suggested to arise from both the diversity and transient evolution of climate forcing agents and the slow adjustment timescales of the intermediate and deep oceans. Nonetheless, various intervals of spatially coherent change simulated for the recent past and near future are identified, and their characteristics and associated driving mechanisms are identified and discussed. The mid- to late-20th century DSL FR is characterized by an hemispherically asymmetric pattern of change, with depressed rates of rise in the northern oceans. There is also a dipole of change in the Southern Ocean caused by changes in near-surface zonal winds. Through the late 20th and early 21st centuries, a different pattern of rise emerges with elevated rates in the tropics and depressed rates at high latitudes. Zonal and interbasin variations characterize both intervals and involve the pattern and depth of anomalous ocean heat content storage and spatial contrasts in the expansion coefficient tied mainly to base state temperature, with greater rates of rise in warm regions per unit warming. Finally, the relative roles of surface flux and ocean convergence anomalies are examined.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Limits to forests-based mitigation in integrated assessment modelling: global potentials and impacts under constraining factors

Forests-based measures such as afforestation/reforestation (A/R) and reducing deforestation (RDF) are considered promising options to mitigate climate change, yet their mitigation potentials are limited by economic and biophysical factors that are largely uncertain. The range of mitigation potential estimates from integrated assessment models raises concerns about the capacity of land systems to provide realistic, cost-effective and permanent land-based mitigation. We use the Global Change Analysis Model to quantify the economic mitigation potential of forests-based measures by simulating a climate policy including a tax on greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture, forestry, and other land uses. In addition, we assess how constraining unused arable land (UAL) availability, forestland expansion rates, and global bioenergy demand may influence the forests-based mitigation potential by simulating scenarios with alternative combinations of constraints. Results show that the average forests-based mitigation potential in 2020–2050 increases from 738 MtCO 2 .yr -1 through a forestland increase of 86 Mha in the fully constrained scenario to 1394 MtCO 2 .yr -1 through a forestland increase of 146 Mha when all constraints are relaxed. Regional potentials in terms of A/R and RDF differ strongly between scenarios: unconstrained forest expansion rates mostly increase A/R potentials in northern regions (e.g., +120 MtCO 2 .yr -1 in North America); while unconstrained UAL conversion and low bioenergy demand mostly increase RDF potentials in tropical regions (e.g., +76 and +68 MtCO 2 .yr -1 in Southeast Asia, respectively). This study shows that forests-based mitigation is limited by many factors that constrain the rates of land use change across regions. These factors, often overlooked in modelling exercises, should be carefully addressed for understanding the role of forests in global climate mitigation and defining pledges towards the Paris Agreement.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Western Pacific Hydroclimate Linked to Global Climate Variability Over the Past Two Millennia

Interdecadal modes of tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere circulation have a strong influence on global temperature, yet the extent to which these phenomena influence global climate on multicentury timescales is still poorly known. Here we present a 2,000-year, multiproxy reconstruction of western Pacific hydroclimate from two speleothem records for southeastern Indonesia. The composite record shows pronounced shifts in monsoon rainfall that are antiphased with precipitation records for East Asia and the central-eastern equatorial Pacific. These meridional and zonal patterns are best explained by a poleward expansion of the Australasian Intertropical Convergence Zone and weakening of the Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) between B1000 and 1500 CE Conversely, an equatorward contraction of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and strengthened PWC occurred between B1500 and 1900 CE. Our findings, together with climate model simulations, highlight the likelihood that century-scale variations in tropical Pacific climate modes can significantly modulate radiatively forced shifts in global temperature.

Pacific Ocean↗

Global Response Patterns of Major Rainfed Crops to Adaptation by Maintaining Current Growing Periods and Irrigation

Increasing temperature trends are expected to impact yields of major field crops by affecting various plant processes, such as phenology, growth, and evapotranspiration. However, future projections typically do not consider the effects of agronomic adaptation in farming practices. We use an ensemble of seven Global Gridded Crop Models to quantify the impacts and adaptation potential of field crops under increasing temperature up to 6 K, accounting for model uncertainty. We find that without adaptation, the dominant effect of temperature increase is to shorten the growing period and to reduce grain yields and production. We then test the potential of two agronomic measures to combat warming-induced yield reduction: (i) use of cultivars with adjusted phenology to regain the reference growing period duration and (ii) conversion of rainfed systems to irrigated ones in order to alleviate the negative temperature effects that are mediated by crop evapotranspiration. We find that cultivar adaptation can fully compensate global production losses up to 2 K of temperature increase, with larger potentials in continental and temperate regions. Irrigation could also compensate production losses, but its potential is highest in arid regions, where irrigation expansion would be constrained by water scarcity. Moreover, we discuss that irrigation is not a true adaptation measure but rather an intensification strategy, as it equally increases production under any temperature level. In the tropics, even when introducing both adapted cultivars and irrigation, crop production declines already at moderate warming, making adaptation particularly challenging in these areas.

Minoli, Sara↗

Observational Quantification of Tropical High Cloud Changes and Feedbacks

Abstract The response of tropical high clouds to surface warming and their radiative feedbacks are uncertain. For example, it is uncertain whether their coverage will contract or expand in response to surface warming and whether such changes entail a stabilizing radiative feedback (iris feedback) or a neutral feedback. Global satellite observations with passive and active remote sensing capabilities over the last two decades can now be used to address such effects that were previously observationally limited. Using these observations, we show that the vertically averaged coverage exhibits no significant contraction or expansion. However, we find a reduction in coverage at the altitude where high clouds peak and are particularly radiatively‐relevant. This results in a negative longwave (LW) feedback and a positive shortwave (SW) feedback which cancel to yield a near‐zero high‐cloud amount feedback, providing observational evidence against an iris feedback. Next, we find that tropical high clouds have risen but have also warmed, leading to a positive, but small, high‐cloud altitude feedback dominated by the LW feedback. Finally, we find that high clouds have been thinning, leading to a near‐zero high‐cloud optical depth feedback from a cancellation between negative LW and positive SW feedbacks. Overall, high clouds lead the total tropical cloud feedback to be small due to the negative LW‐positive SW feedback cancellations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A taxogenomic view of the genus Torulaspora : an expansion from ten to twenty-two species

The yeast genus Torulaspora (subphylum Saccharomycotina, family Saccharomycetaceae) is mostly known from its type species, T. delbrueckii, a frequent colonizer of wine and sourdough bread fermentations. The genus currently contains 10 species that are typically found in various natural terrestrial environments in temperate and tropical climates. Here we employ taxogenomic analyses to investigate a large collection of Torulaspora strains obtained in multiple surveys we carried out in Asia, Australasia, North America, South America, and Europe, and to which we added several strains maintained in culture collections. Our analyses detected twelve novel species that are formally described here, thereby more than doubling the species diversity of Torulaspora. We also sketch a genotype-phenotype map for the genus and show how the complex relationship between key genes and the physiological traits they control both between and within species. This remarkable increase in the number of species in the genus Torulaspora highlights how limited the current inventory of fungal taxa is. It also shows how integrated taxogenomic approaches can foster the assessment of species circumscriptions in fungi.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Using transparent fish to observe barotrauma associated with downstream passage through hydropower turbines

During downstream passage of hydroelectric facilities, fish can be injured by rapid decompression; this is especially noted during hydroturbine passage. The rapid decrease in pressure can cause barotrauma as undissolved gas expands according to Boyle’s law. However, it is difficult to see barotrauma occurring within the body of the fish in real time. In order to determine if transparent fish could provide greater insight into barotrauma, five species of transparent tropical fish were exposed to rapid decompressions so internal injuries could be viewed noninvasively. Before and after photos were taken to review the injuries and high speed video allowed observations of barotrauma pathways in vivo. High speed video recordings show the expansion of the swim bladder and subsequent release of gas through the mouth and gills, and into the body cavity when the swim bladder ruptured. Post-decompression photographs show that many internal injuries were visible and included hemorrhaging and the presence of emphysema within the body cavity and tissues. These observations provide new opportunities to understand the pathways and effects of barotrauma.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗