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Dynamical Sensitivity in Response to a Wide Range of Abrupt CO 2 Forcings

An improved understanding of dynamical variability is important for projecting future changes in extratropical weather and the interaction between the extratropical troposphere and the tropics, stratosphere, cryosphere and ocean. Despite their simplicity, the abrupt 2x- and 4xCO 2 forcing simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phase 6 DECK experiments enable a mechanistic look into the forcing and feedback response characteristics of models that can be unambiguously attributed to an increase in carbon dioxide concentrations. Thus, while typically used to evaluate the climate sensitivity in models, with a primary focus on global surface temperature change, here we focus on several measures of extratropical variability, including projected changes in the storm tracks and in stratospheric polar vortex variability. Results are primarily based on simulations produced using low- and high-top versions of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Model (ModelE) but results are also presented from the larger CMIP6 multi-model ensemble. In addition to the 2x- and 4xCO 2 simulations, we also explore the linearity of the response of extratropical dynamical variability in ModelE to varying levels of CO 2 spanning the range 1/8-8xCO 2 . In particular, we show that the expansion of the jet streams varies nonlinearly with increasing CO 2 , especially in the Northern Hemisphere, and that this can be interpreted in terms of variations in ocean heat transport. The impact of composition feedbacks on changes in variability is also discussed.

dynamical variability↗
NASA NTRS1978

An infrared radiation routine for use in numerical atmospheric models

Previous methods for calculating radiative fluxes due to water vapor and CO2 absorption bands are extended to take into consideration the entire water vapor and CO2 bands, including e-type absorption in the window region and the overlapping of different absorptions. Cooling rate profiles in the water vapor bands for a tropical atmosphere were computed by a detailed line-by-line method and by a far-wing approximation method, and the error of both methods is less than 0.2 C/day. Cooling rate profiles in the 15 micron band including overlapping of CO2 absorption with water vapor were calculated by a method in which flux transmittance is computed by means of a linear expansion and the multiplication rule, and maximum errors of 0.3 C/day were found in comparison with the exact line-by-line method.

Chow, M.-D.↗
NASA NTRS2013

On the Role of SST Forcing in the 2011 and 2012 Extreme U.S. Heat and Drought: A Study in Contrasts

This study compares the extreme heat and drought that developed over the United States in 2011 and 2012 with a focus on the role of SST forcing. Experiments with the NASA GEOS-5 atmospheric general circulation model show that the winter/spring response over the U.S. to the Pacific SST is remarkably similar for the two years despite substantial differences in the tropical Pacific SST. As such, the pronounced winter and early spring temperature differences between the two years (warmth confined to the south in 2011 and covering much of the continent in 2012) primarily reflect differences in the contributions from the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, with both acting to cool the east and upper mid-west during 2011, while during 2012 the Indian Ocean reinforced the Pacific-driven continental-wide warming and the Atlantic played a less important role. During late spring and summer of 2011 the tropical Pacific SST force a continued warming and drying over the southern U.S., though considerably weaker than observed. Nevertheless, the observed anomalies fall within the models intra-ensemble spread. In contrast, the rapid development of intense heat and drying over the central U.S. during June and July of 2012 falls outside the models intra-ensemble spread. The response to the SST (a northward expansion of a modest summer warming linked to the Atlantic) gives little indication that 2012 would produce record-breaking precipitation deficits and heat in the central Great Plains. A diagnosis of the 2012 observed circulation anomalies shows that the most extreme heat and drought was tied to the development of a stationary Rossby wave and an associated anomalous upper tropospheric high maintained by weather transients.

SST Forcing↗
NASA NTRS1997

Human Migration and Agricultural Expansion: An Impending Threat to the Maya Biosphere Reserve

Evidence is presented of the current threats to the Maya Biosphere Reserve in northern Guatemala as derived through time-series Landsat Thematic Mapper observations and analysis. Estimates of deforestation rates and trends are examined for different management units within the reserve and buffer zones. The satellite imagery was used to quantify and monitor rates, patterns, and trends of forest clearing during a time period corresponding to new road construction and significant human migration into the newly accessible forest region. Satellite imagery is appropriate technology in a vast and remote tropical region where aerial photography and extensive field-based methods are not cost-effective and current, timely data is essential for establishing conservation priorities.

Sader, Steven↗
NASA NTRS1990

Inverse methods for assessing ship-of-opportunity networks and estimating circulation and winds from tropical expendable bathythermograph data

Inverse methods for estimating the surface ciculation of the equatorial Pacific by combining a linear reduced-gravity shallow-water model with the Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere ship-of-opportunity expendable bathythermograph (TOGA SOP XBT) observing program are examined. It is demonstrated that a simple linear model of the upper circulation of the equatorial Pacific can be successfully used as a weak constraint when smoothing the TOGA SOP XBT data. A circulation is sought as the weighted least squares fit to the dynamics and the data. The solution method is an expansion in representer functions, and the generalized inverse problem is thereby reduced from a functional problem to an algebraic problem for the coefficients of the representer. A specific inverse calculation using synthetic forcing and data is presented.

Bennett, Andrew F.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Reevaluating the Role of Saharan Air Layer in Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenesis and Evolution

The existence of the Saharan air layer (SAL), a layer of warm, dry, dusty air that frequently moves westward off of the Saharan desert of Africa and over the tropical Atlantic Ocean, has long been appreciated. As air moves over the desert, it is strongly heated from below, producing a very hot air mass at low levels. Because there is no moisture source over the Sahara, the rise in temperature causes a sharp drop in relative humidity, thus drying the air. In addition, the warm air produces a very strong jet of easterly flow in the middle troposphere called the African easterly jet that is thought to play a critical role in hurricane formation. In recent years, there has been an increased focus on the impact that the SAL has on the formation and evolution of hurricanes in the Atlantic. However, the nature of its impact remains unclear, with some researchers arguing that the SAL amplifies hurricane development and with others arguing that it inhibits it. The argument for positively influencing hurricane development is based upon the fact that the African easterly jet provides an energy source for the waves that eventually form hurricanes and that it leads to rising motion south of the jet that favors the development of deep thunderstorm clouds. The potential negative impacts of the SAL include 1) low-level vertical wind shear associated with the African easterly jet; 2) warm SAL air aloft, which increases thermodynamic stability and suppresses cloud development; and 3) dry air, which produces cold downdrafts in precipitating regions, thereby removing energy needed for storm development. As part of this recent focus on the SAL and hurricanes (which motivated a 2006 NASA field experiment), there has been little emphasis on the SAL s potential positive influences and almost complete emphasis on its possible negative influences, almost to the point of claims that the SAL is the major suppressing influence on hurricanes in the Atlantic. In this study, multiple NASA satellite data sets (TRMM, MODIS, CALIPSO, and AIRS/AMSU) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction global analyses are used to see if the proposed negative influences deserve all of the attention they have recently received. The results show that storms generally form on the southern side of the African jet, where favorable background rotation is high. The jet often helps to form the northern side of the storms and is typically stronger in storms that intensify than those that weaken, suggesting that jet-induced vertical wind shear is not a negative influence on developing storms. Warm SAL air is confined to regions north of the jet and generally does not impact the tropical cyclone precipitation south of the jet. A comparison of the environments of strongly strengthening storms and of weakening storms shows no differences in SAL structure, indicating that the SAL has little influence on whether storms weaken or intensify. The large-scale flow at upper levels above the SAL was found to be most important, with the environment of strengthening storms having very little vertical wind shear and also favoring more expansive outflow from the storm. The SAL is shown to occur in a large-scale environment that is already characteristically dry as a result of large-scale subsidence (sinking air motions). Strong surface heating and deep dry convective mixing enhance dryness at low levels, but moisten the air at midlevels. Therefore, mid-to-upper-level dryness is not a defining characteristic of the SAL, but is instead a signature of subsidence. As a result, we conclude that the SAL is not the major negative influence on hurricanes that recent studies have emphasized. It is just one of many possible influences and can be both positive and negative.

Braun, Scott A.↗
NASA NTRS2007

SERVIR: From Space to Village. A Regional Monitoring and Visualization System For Environmental Management Using Satellite Applications For Sustainable Development

NASA is committed to providing technological support and expertise to regional and national organizations for earth science monitoring and analysis. This commitment is exemplified by NASA's long-term relationship with Central America. The focus of these efforts has primarily been to measure the impact of human development on the environment and to provide data for the management of human settlement and expansion in the region. Now, NASA is planning to extend and expand this capability to other regions of the world including Africa and the Caribbean. NASA began using satellite imagery over twenty-five years ago to locate important Maya archeological sites in Mesoamerica and to quantify the affect of deforestation on those sites. Continuing that mission, NASA has partnered with the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), the World Bank, the Water Center for the Humid Tropics of Latin America and the Caribbean (CATHALAC) and the Central American Commission for Environment and Development (CCAD) to develop SERVIR (Sistema Regional de Visualizacion y Monitoreo), for the Mesoamerican Biological Corridor. SERVIR has become one of the most important aspects of NASA's geospatial efforts in Central America by establishing a common access portal for information that affects the lives, livelihood and future of everyone in the region. SERVIR, most commonly referred to as a regional visualization and monitoring system, is a scientific and technological platform that integrates satellite and other geospatial data sets to generate tools for improved decision-making capabilities. It has a collection of data and models that are easily accessible to earth science managers, first responders, NGO's (Non-Government Organizations) and a host of others. SERVIR is currently used to monitor and forecast ecological changes as well as provide information for decision support during severe events such as forest fires, red tides,and tropical storms. Additionally, SERVIR addresses the nine societal benefit areas of the Global Earth Observation System (GEOSS): disasters, ecosystems, biodiversity, weather, water, climate, health, agriculture and energy.

Sever, Tom↗
NASA NTRS2010

Effects of Irrigation on Global Climate During the 20th Century

Various studies have documented the effects of modern ]day irrigation on regional and global climate, but none, to date, have considered the time ]varying impact of steadily increasing irrigation rates on climate during the 20th century. We investigate the impacts of observed irrigation changes over this century with two ensemble simulations using an atmosphere general circulation model. Both ensembles are forced with transient climate forcings and observed sea surface temperatures from 1902 to 2000; one ensemble includes irrigation specified by a time ]varying data set of irrigation water withdrawals. Early in the century, irrigation is primarily localized over southern and eastern Asia, leading to significant cooling in boreal summer (June.August) over these regions. This cooling spreads and intensifies by century fs end, following the rapid expansion of irrigation over North America, Europe, and Asia. Irrigation also leads to boreal winter (December.February) warming over parts of North America and Asia in the latter part of the century, due to enhanced downward longwave fluxes from increased near ]surface humidity. Precipitation increases occur primarily downwind of the major irrigation areas, although precipitation in parts of India decreases due to a weaker summer monsoon. Irrigation begins to significantly reduce temperatures and temperature trends during boreal summer over the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes and tropics beginning around 1950; significant increases in precipitation occur in these same latitude bands. These trends reveal the varying importance of irrigation ]climate interactions and suggest that future climate studies should account for irrigation, especially in regions with unsustainable irrigation resources.

Puma, M. J.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Impacts of ENSO on the South American Summer Monsoon During 1997-1999

Using the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Reanalysis, and CPC Merged Analysis Product (CMAP) rainfall, we have compared and contrasted the anomalies of the South American Summer Monsoon (SASM) during two extreme years of 1997/98 (EI Nino) and 1998/99 (La Nina). The results are assessed against a "canonical" ENSO response (CER) pattern for the SASM obtained from empirical mode decomposition based on a previous period (1980-1995). Overall, the SASM anomalies compare well with CER, but with some important differences. Anomalies occurring in the warm phase of the 1997-98 El Nino are very significant and robust, while those occurring in 1998/99 La Nina, appear to be reversed from 1997/98, but are relatively weak and less well-defined. The most pronounced signal in DJF 1997/98 is the development of drought conditions in northern Brazil, excessive rainfall over northern Peru and Ecuador, and over Uruguay and southern Brazil. The tropical rainfall anomalies are associated with the eastward shift of the Walker circulation, which is represented by pronounced low-level anomalous westerlies over the equatorial eastern Pacific and easterlies over northern Brazil. The easterlies are deflected sharply southeastward by the steep topography of the Andes, enhancing the low-level jet (LLJ) along the eastern foothills of the Andes near 15-20 S. The LLJ penetrates deep into the extratropics, yielding rainfall anomalies further poleward compared to CER. During DJF 1997/98, the eastward expansion of the warm tropospheric temperature over the Nino-3 region causes anomalous geopotential height to develop in the upper troposphere above the Altiplano, leading to a strengthened Bolivian High. An upper-tropospheric jet anomaly maximum is found over the subtropical continent near 30 S, due to increasing meridional gradient of tropospheric temperature, as well as teleconnection patterns linking the South Pacific and the South Atlantic. Consistent with the CER, the South Pacific High is weakened, and the South Atlantic High is strengthened in DJF 1997/98. However, rather than appearing as a coherent large scale signal over the entire Atlantic as in CER, the South Atlantic High anomalies in DJF 1997/98 split into two separate high pressure centers; one located south of the Amazon basin, and another over the southeastern South Atlantic. The former is induced as a Rossby-wave response by ENSO-Induced sinking motion over nor-them and eastern Brazil, and the latter may be associated with extratropical teleconnection signals. Anomalous convection observed over equatorial western Africa may also have contributed to the different circulation response over the Atlantic in DFJ 1997/99 compared to the CER. Comparison of the evolution of the SASM anomalies in 1997-99 with their corresponding annual cycles, suggest that the anomalies are phase-locked to and represent either enhancement or reduction of the annual variations. Results suggest that, from a system perspective the SASM was strengthened during the 1997/98 El Nino and weakened, albeit to a lesser extent, during the 1998/99 La Nina.

Lau, K.-M.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Tracking the Rates and Mechanisms of Canopy Damage and Recovery Following Hurricane Maria Using Multitemporal Lidar Data

Hurricane Maria, a Category 4 storm, snapped and uprooted canopy trees, removed large branches, and defoliated vegetation across Puerto Rico. The magnitude of forest damages and the rates and mechanisms of forest recovery following Maria provide important benchmarks for understanding the ecology of extreme events. We used airborne Lidar data acquired before (2017) and after Maria (2018, 2020) to quantify landscape-scale changes in forest structure along a 439-ha elevational gradient (100–800 m) in the Luquillo Experimental Forest. Damages from Maria were widespread, with 73% of the study area losing ≥ 1 m in canopy height (mean = −7.1 m). Taller forests at lower elevations suffered more damage than shorter forests above 600 m. Yet only 13.5% of the study area had canopy heights ≤ 2 m in 2018, a typical threshold for forest gaps, highlighting the importance of damaged trees and advanced regeneration on post-storm forest structure. Heterogeneous patterns of regrowth and recruitment yielded shorter and more open forests by 2020. Nearly 45% of forests experienced initial height loss > 1 m (2017–2018) followed by rapid height gain > 1 m (2018–2020), whereas 21.6% of forests with initial height losses showed little or no height gain, and 17.8% of forests exhibited no height changes larger than ± 1 m in either period. Canopy layers < 10 m tall accounted for most increases in canopy height and fractional cover between 2018 and 2020, with gains split evenly between height growth and lateral crown expansion by surviving individuals. These findings benchmark rates of gap formation, crown expansion, and canopy closure following hurricane damage and highlight the diversity of ecosystem impacts from heterogeneous spatial patterns and vertical stratification of forest regrowth following a major disturbance event.

forest structure↗
NASA NTRS2021

Tracking the Rates and Mechanisms of Canopy Damage and Recovery Following Hurricane Maria Using Multitemporal Lidar Data

Hurricane Maria, a Category 4 storm, snapped and uprooted canopy trees, removed large branches, and defoliated vegetation across Puerto Rico. The magnitude of forest damages and the rates and mechanisms of forest recovery following Maria provide important benchmarks for understanding the ecology of extreme events. We used airborne Lidar data acquired before (2017) and after Maria (2018, 2020) to quantify landscape-scale changes in forest structure along a 439-ha elevational gradient (100–800 m) in the Luquillo Experimental Forest. Damages from Maria were widespread, with 73% of the study area losing ≥ 1 m in canopy height (mean = −7.1 m). Taller forests at lower elevations suffered more damage than shorter forests above 600 m. Yet only 13.5% of the study area had canopy heights ≤ 2 m in 2018, a typical threshold for forest gaps, highlighting the importance of damaged trees and advanced regeneration on post-storm forest structure. Heterogeneous patterns of regrowth and recruitment yielded shorter and more open forests by 2020. Nearly 45% of forests experienced initial height loss > 1 m (2017–2018) followed by rapid height gain > 1 m (2018–2020), whereas 21.6% of forests with initial height losses showed little or no height gain, and 17.8% of forests exhibited no height changes larger than ± 1 m in either period. Canopy layers < 10 m tall accounted for most increases in canopy height and fractional cover between 2018 and 2020, with gains split evenly between height growth and lateral crown expansion by surviving individuals. These findings benchmark rates of gap formation, crown expansion, and canopy closure following hurricane damage and highlight the diversity of ecosystem impacts from heterogeneous spatial patterns and vertical stratification of forest regrowth following a major disturbance event.

forest structure↗
NASA NTRS1998

Detecting a Terrestrial Biosphere Sink for Carbon Dioxide: Interannual Ecosystem Modeling for the Mid-1980s

There is considerable uncertainty as to whether interannual variability in climate and terrestrial ecosystem production is sufficient to explain observed variation in atmospheric carbon content over the past 20-30 years. In this paper, we investigated the response of net CO2 exchange in terrestrial ecosystems to interannual climate variability (1983 to 1988) using global satellite observations as drivers for the NASA-CASA (Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach) simulation model. This computer model of net ecosystem production (NEP) is calibrated for interannual simulations driven by monthly satellite vegetation index data (NDVI) from the NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) at 1 degree spatial resolution. Major results from NASA-CASA simulations suggest that from 1985 to 1988, the northern middle-latitude zone (between 30 and 60 degrees N) was the principal region driving progressive annual increases in global net primary production (NPP; i.e., the terrestrial biosphere sink for carbon). The average annual increase in NPP over this predominantly northern forest zone was on the order of +0.4 Pg (10 (exp 15) g) C per year. This increase resulted mainly from notable expansion of the growing season for plant carbon fixation toward the zonal latitude extremes, a pattern uniquely demonstrated in our regional visualization results. A net biosphere source flux of CO2 in 1983-1984, coinciding with an El Nino event, was followed by a major recovery of global NEP in 1985 which lasted through 1987 as a net carbon sink of between 0.4 and 2.6 Avg C per year. Analysis of model controls on NPP and soil heterotrophic CO2 fluxes (Rh) suggests that regional warming in northern forests can enhance ecosystem production significantly. In seasonally dry tropical zones, periodic drought and temperature drying effects may carry over with at least a two-year lag time to adversely impact ecosystem production. These yearly patterns in our model-predicted NEP are consistent in magnitude with the estimated exchange of CO2 by the terrestrial biosphere with the atmosphere, as determined by previous isotopic (delta (sup 13 C) convolution analysis. Ecosystem simulation results can help further target locations where net carbon sink fluxes have occurred in the past or may be verified in subsequent field studies.

Potter, Christopher S.↗
NASA NTRS2019

The Global Fire Atlas of Individual Fire Size, Duration, Speed and Direction

Natural and human-ignited fires affect all major biomes, altering ecosystem structure, biogeochemical cycles and atmospheric composition. Satellite observations provide global data on spatiotemporal patterns of biomass burning and evidence for the rapid changes in global fire activity in response to land management and climate. Satellite imagery also provides detailed information on the daily or sub-daily position of fires that can be used to understand the dynamics of individual fires. The Global Fire Atlas is a new global dataset that tracks the dynamics of individual fires to determine the timing and location of ignitions, fire size and duration, and daily expansion, fire line length, speed, and direction of spread. Here, we present the underlying methodology and Global Fire Atlas results for 2003–2016 derived from daily moderate-resolution (500 m) Collection 6 MCD64A1 burned-area data. The algorithm identified 13.3 million individual fires over the study period, and estimated fire perimeters were in good agreement with independent data for the continental United States. A small number of large fires dominated sparsely populated arid and boreal ecosystems, while burned area in agricultural and other human-dominated landscapes was driven by high ignition densities that resulted in numerous smaller fires. Long-duration fires in boreal regions and natural landscapes in the humid tropics suggest that fire season length exerts a strong control on fire size and total burned area in these areas. In arid ecosystems with low fuel densities, high fire spread rates resulted in large, short-duration fires that quickly consumed available fuels. Importantly, multiday fires contributed the majority of burned area in all biomass burning regions. A first analysis of the largest, longest and fastest fires that occurred around the world revealed coherent regional patterns of extreme fires driven by large-scale climate forcing. Global Fire Atlas data are publicly available through http://www.globalfiredata.org (last access: 9 August 2018) and https://doi.org/10.3334/ORNLDAAC/1642, and individual fire information and summary data products provide new information for benchmarking fire models within ecosystem and Earth system models, understanding vegetation–fire feedbacks, improving global emissions estimates, and characterizing the changing role of fire in the Earth system.

global fire atlas↗
NASA NTRS2005

Growing Typhoon Influence on East Asia

Numerical model studies have suggested that the ongoing global warming will likely affect tropical cyclone activity. But so far little observed evidence has been detected to support the projected future changes. Using satellite-supported best-track data from 1965 to 2003, we show for the first time that over the past four decades the two prevailing typhoon tracks in the western North Pacific (WNP) have shifted westward significantly; the typhoon activity over the South China Sea has considerably decreased; and East Asia has experienced increasing typhoon influence. Our trajectory model simulation indicates that the long-term shifts in the typhoon tracks result primarily from the changes in the mean translation velocity of typhoons or the large-scale steering flow, which is associated with the westward expansion and strengthening of the WNP subtropical high.

Wu, Liguang↗
NASA NTRS2004

High Spectral Resolution MODIS Algorithms for Ocean Chlorophyll in Case II Waters

The Case 2 chlorophyll a algorithm is based on a semi-analytical, bio-optical model of remote sensing reflectance, R(sub rs)(lambda), where R(sub rs)(lambda) is defined as the water-leaving radiance, L(sub w)(lambda), divided by the downwelling irradiance just above the sea surface, E(sub d)(lambda,0(+)). The R(sub rs)(lambda) model (Section 3) has two free variables, the absorption coefficient due to phytoplankton at 675 nm, a(sub phi)(675), and the absorption coefficient due to colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) or gelbstoff at 400 nm, a(sub g)(400). The R(rs) model has several parameters that are fixed or can be specified based on the region and season of the MODIS scene. These control the spectral shapes of the optical constituents of the model. R(sub rs)(lambda(sub i)) values from the MODIS data processing system are placed into the model, the model is inverted, and a(sub phi)(675), a(sub g)(400) (MOD24), and chlorophyll a (MOD21, Chlor_a_3) are computed. Algorithm development is initially focused on tropical, subtropical, and summer temperate environments, and the model is parameterized in Section 4 for three different bio-optical domains: (1) high ratios of photoprotective pigments to chlorophyll and low self-shading, which for brevity, we designate as 'unpackaged'; (2) low ratios and high self-shading, which we designate as 'packaged'; and (3) a transitional or global-average type. These domains can be identified from space by comparing sea-surface temperature to nitrogen-depletion temperatures for each domain (Section 5). Algorithm errors of more than 45% are reduced to errors of less than 30% with this approach, with the greatest effect occurring at the eastern and polar boundaries of the basins. Section 6 provides an expansion of bio-optical domains into high-latitude waters. The 'fully packaged' pigment domain is introduced in this section along with a revised strategy for implementing these variable packaging domains. Chlor_a_3 values derived semi-analytically and Chlor_a_2 values derived empirically using the O Reilly et al. OC3M algorithm from MODIS Terra radiances are compared to field chlorophyll-a concentrations in Sections 7 and 8.

Carder, Kendall L.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Synergy Between Land Use and Climate Change Increases Future Fire Risk in Amazon Forests

Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest's future over the next century. Understory forest fires, which are common under the current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climate-driven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and land use changes may increase fire activity in these remote regions. Here, we used a fire model specifically parameterized for Amazon understory fires to examine the interactions between anthropogenic activities and climate under current and projected conditions. In a scenario of low mitigation efforts with substantial land use expansion and climate change – Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 – projected understory fires increase in frequency and duration, burning 4–28 times more forest in 2080–2100 than during 1990–2010. In contrast, active climate mitigation and land use contraction in RCP4.5 constrain the projected increase in fire activity to 0.9–5.4 times contemporary burned area. Importantly, if climate mitigation is not successful, land use contraction alone is very effective under low to moderate climate change, but does little to reduce fire activity under the most severe climate projections. These results underscore the potential for a fire-driven transformation of Amazon forests if recent regional policies for forest conservation are not paired with global efforts to mitigate climate change.

Le Page, Yannick↗
NASA NTRS2007

Tropical Cyclones Feed More Heavy Rain in a Warmer Climate

The possible linkage of tropical cyclones (TC) to global warming is a hotly debated scientific topic, with immense societal impacts. Most of the debate has been focused on the issue of uncertainty in the use of non-research quality data for long-term trend analyses, especially with regard to TC intensity provided by TC forecasting centers. On the other hand, it is well known that TCs are associated with heavy rain during the processes of genesis and intensification, and that there are growing evidences that rainfall characteristics (not total rainfall) are most likely to be affected by global warming. Yet, satellite rainfall data have not been exploited in any recent studies of linkage between tropical cyclones (TC) and global warming. This is mostly due to the large uncertainties associated with detection of long-term trend in satellite rainfall estimates over the ocean. This problem, as we demonstrate in this paper, can be alleviated by examining rainfall distribution, rather than rainfall total. This paper is the first to use research-quality, satellite-derived rainfall from TRMM and GPCP over the tropical oceans to estimate shift in rainfall distribution during the TC season, and its relationships with TCs, and sea surface temperature (SST) in the two major ocean basins, the northern Atlantic and the northern Pacific for 1979-2005. From the rainfall distribution, we derive the TC contributions to rainfall in various extreme rainfall categories as a function to time. Our results show a definitive trend indicating that TCs are contributing increasingly to heavier rain events, i.e., intense TC's are more frequent in the last 27 years. The TC contribution to top 5% heavy rain has nearly doubled in the last two decades in the North Atlantic, and has increased by about 10% in the North Pacific. The different rate of increase in TC contribution to heavy rain may be related to the different rates of different rate of expansion of the warm pool (SST >2S0 C) area in the two oceans.

Lau, K.-M.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Managing Fire Risk During Drought: The Influence of Certification and El Nino on Fire-Driven Forest Conversion for Oil Palm in Southeast Asia

Indonesia and Malaysia have emerged as leading producers of palm oil in the past several decades, expanding production through the conversion of tropical forests to industrial plantations. Efforts to produce "sustainable" palm oil, including certification by the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO), include guidelines designed to reduce the environmental impact of palm oil production. Fire-driven deforestation is prohibited by law in both countries and a stipulation of RSPO certification, yet the degree of environmental compliance isunclear, especially during El Niño events when drought conditions increase fire risk. Here, we used time series of satellite data to estimate the spatial and temporal patterns of fire-driven deforestation on and around oil palm plantations. In Indonesia, fire-driven deforestation accounted for one-quarter of total forest losses on both certified and noncertified plantations. After the first plantations in Indonesia received RSPO certification in 2009,forest loss and fire-driven deforestation declined on certified plantations but did not stop altogether. Oil palm expansion in Malaysia rarely involved fire; only 5 % of forest loss on certified plantations had coincident activefire detections. Interannual variability in fire detections was strongly influenced by El Nino and the timing of certification. Fire activity during the 2002, 2004, and 2006 El Nino events was similar among oil palm plantations in Indonesia that would later become certified, noncertified plantations, and surrounding areas. However, total fire activity was 75% and 66% lower on certified plantations than noncertified plantations during the 2009 and 2015 El Nino events, respectively. The decline in fire activity on certified plantations, including during drought periods, highlights the potential for RSPO certification to safeguard carbon stocks in peatlands and remaining forests in accordance with legislation banning fires. However, aligning certification standards with satellite monitoring capabilities will be critical to realize sustainable palm oil production and meet industry commitments to zero forestation.

Noojipady, Praveen↗