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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainties in Simulating Flooding During Hurricane Harvey Using 2D Shallow Water Equations

Abstract Flooding is one of the most impactful weather‐related natural hazards. Numerical models that solve the two dimensional (2D) shallow water equations (SWE) represent the first‐principles approach to simulate all types of spatial flooding, such as pluvial, fluvial, and coastal flooding, and their compound dynamics. High spatial resolution (e.g., () m) is needed in 2D SWE simulations to capture flood dynamics accurately, resulting in formidable computational challenges. Thus, relatively coarser spatial resolutions are used for large‐scale simulations of flooding, which introduce uncertainties in the results. It is unclear how the uncertainty associated with the model resolution compares to the uncertainties in precipitation data sets and assumptions regarding boundary conditions when channelized flows interact with other water bodies. In this study, we compare these three sources of uncertainties in 2D SWE simulations for the 2017 Houston flooding event. Our results show that precipitation uncertainty and mesh resolution have more significant impacts on the simulated streamflow and inundation dynamics than the choice of the downstream boundary condition at the watershed outlet. We point out the viability to confine the uncertainty of coarsening mesh resolution by using the variable resolution mesh (VRM) which refines critical topographic features with far fewer grid cells. Specifically, in simulations with VRM, the simulated inundation depths over the refined region are comparable to that use the finest uniform mesh. This study contributes to understanding the challenges and pathways for applying 2D SWE models to improve the realism of flood simulations over large scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Global Methane Observation System to Reduce Uncertainty for Anthropogenic and Natural Sources and Sinks for Detecting and Attributing Climate Feedbacks

Atmospheric methane (CH4) concentrations are accelerating global warming as net emissions increase. Observing systems that quantify sources remain too sparse and fragmented to detect trends—especially in remote regions where climate‐driven natural emissions may be rising. We provide a framework for quantifying uncertainty reductions through the implementation of a global ecosystem‐methane observing system designed to: (i) substantially lower uncertainty in sectoral and regional emissions, (ii) separate co‐occurring anthropogenic and natural fluxes, and (iii) trend detection at regional scales to verify mitigation progress and provide early warning of natural feedbacks. Using bottom‐up inventories and process‐model ensembles for 2014–2023, we show that anthropogenic emissions remain uncertain by ∼32% globally, while natural sources—tropical and boreal‐arctic wetlands, fires, and inland waters—carry far larger uncertainties (+ 70%) and trend uncertainties reaching ∼200%. Additional observations must match spatial emission structure to increase observability of emissions: high‐resolution satellite constellations for point sources combined with expanded flux networks and wetland mapping for diffuse sources, and denser ground‐based atmospheric column measurements to restore observability in under‐sampled tropics and high latitudes. Notional analyses indicate that targeted additions of flux towers and ∼20 in situ atmospheric column concentration instruments per key tropical region could reduce continental‐scale uncertainties at modest cost. Conceptual illustration of a Global Ecosystem Methane Observing System (GEM‐OS) integrating satellites, aircraft, atmospheric networks, and ecosystem measurements to quantify methane emissions from anthropogenic and natural sources. The multi‐scale observing framework improves source attribution, reduces uncertainty in regional methane budgets, and enables early detection of climate‐driven feedbacks from wetlands, fires, permafrost, agriculture, and fossil‐fuel emissions.

Ciais, P↗
DOE OSTI2025

Characterizing How Meteorological Forcing Selection and Parameter Uncertainty Influence Community Land Model Version 5 Hydrological Applications in the United States

Despite the increasing use of large-scale Land Surface Models (LSMs) in predicting hydrological responses in extreme conditions, there's a critical gap in understanding the uncertainties in these predictions. This study addresses this gap through a detailed diagnostic evaluation of the uncertainties arising from meteorological forcing selection and model parametrization in hydrological simulations of the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5). CLM5 is configured at a spatial scale of about 12-km to simulate runoff processes for 464 headwater watersheds, selected from the Catchment Attributes for Large-Sample Studies (CAMELS) dataset to be representative of physiographic and climatic gradients across the conterminous United States. For each watershed, CLM5 is driven by five commonly used gridded forcing datasets in combination with a large ensemble (> 1200) of key CLM5 hydrologic parameters. Our results suggest that uncertainty in CLM5 runoff simulations resulting from both forcing and parametric sources is markedly higher in arid regions, e.g., Great Plains and Midwest regions. Uncertainty in low flow is dominated by parametric uncertainty, while the selection of meteorological forcing contributes more dominantly to high flow and seasonal flows during fall and spring. Our analysis also demonstrates that the selection of forcing datasets and the metrics used to calibrate CLM5 significantly impact the model’s predictive accuracy in extreme event severity for both floods and droughts. Overall, the results from this study highlight the need to understand and account for forcing and parametric uncertainties in CLM5 simulations, particularly for hazard and risk assessments addressing hydrologic extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Statistical Uncertainty of Inhalation Dose Coefficients: Impact of Particle Deposition in ICRP 66 Human Respiratory Tract Model

Inhaled radioactive materials can pose a long-term health concern, as the material can be incorporated into the body’s metabolic pathways and remain in organs and tissues for extended durations. During the retention period, the radioactive material may localize in a source organ and irradiate adjacent target organs and tissues. Distribution of these materials changes over time, requiring biokinetic modeling to evaluate their movement through various tissues and organs. The evolving distribution depends on multiple inputs characterizing the inhaled material, such as particle size and size distribution, particle density, aspect ratio, specific radionuclide, the chemical form, and solubility. In addition, biological parameters such as breathing rate, breathing type (nasal or nasal/oral), respiratory system morphometry, tidal volume, functional residual capacity, and anatomical dead space all influence material transport. These aerosol properties and physiological characteristics of the respiratory tract jointly define a range of initial conditions that influence the time-dependent distribution of radioactive material. To evaluate both uncertainty in the initial conditions of inhalation exposure and the final output (committed effective dose) from biokinetic models, a Python-based software tool, Radiological Exposure Dose Calculator (REDCAL), was developed to propagate uncertainty within the human respiratory tract model. Focusing on deposition fraction uncertainty, the primary objective was to characterize the initial activity distribution across respiratory regions as a function of anticipated particle sizes and distributions. The impact of the deposition fraction uncertainty was propagated to committed effective dose coefficients for selected radionuclides in a companion publication. For each particle size, a lognormal distribution, characterized by its geometric mean as defined within ICRP Publication 66, serves as the basis for introducing uncertainty into the physical processes governing deposition in various lung regions. Finally, this study addresses the deposition process and examines how uncertainty in deposition mechanisms affects activity distribution in the airways, ultimately presenting the expected range and standard deviation of deposited activity as a function of particle size.

International Commission on Radiological Protectio↗
DOE OSTI2025

Challenges in quantifying unparameterized spatial uncertainties in deep geologic repositories for nuclear waste

Spatially heterogeneous uncertainties are prevalent in geophysical modeling applications, such as probabilistic post-closure performance assessment (PA) of deep geologic repositories for nuclear waste. Such uncertainties are often highly influential to model outputs, so it is desirable to identify the most important mechanisms by which they influence model predictions. However, these uncertainties are often unparameterized in the sense that there is no set of parameters that can be specified to yield a particular realization of the uncertainty. Additionally, the uncertainty is not intrinsically endowed with a parameterization that captures a realization’s mechanistic influence on model outputs. Therefore, in this work we present a novel methodology to develop and assess a set of proxy variables that aim to represent this influence. We show how they can be computed, downselected, and incorporated into the construction of statistical surrogate models mapping model inputs to outputs. We present our methodology in the context of a motivating application problem in deep geologic repository PA and discuss the challenges in capturing the effects of these spatial heterogeneities in uncertainty analyses.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

Initial Uncertainty Analysis of Carbon Tetrachloride Contamination and Remediation in the Ringold A and Lower Mud Units at the Central Plateau

The long-term effectiveness of groundwater cleanup at the Hanford Site Central Plateau depends on predictive models that can capture key uncertainties in contaminant fate and transport. Carbon tetrachloride (CCl 4 ), a persistent and toxic compound, presents particular challenges due to variability in degradation rates, uncertainty in initial plume distribution, and subsurface heterogeneity. These uncertainties directly influence plume persistence, migration pathways, and remedy performance, and thus must be systematically evaluated to support long-term remediation planning. To address these gaps, a large-scale Monte Carlo analysis was conducted using the Plateau to River (P2R) model framework. The modeling approach parameterized three primary uncertainty factors: (1) degradation rate, (2) initial plume distribution, and (3) hydraulic conductivity. Degradation was represented as a first-order process, with half-lives ranging from 70 to 700 years. Initial plume distributions were created using a geostatistical simulation method (sgsim), which generates many equally plausible versions of how contaminants might be distributed underground. From this, 100 different scenarios were mapped onto the P2R grid. Variability in hydraulic conductivity was represented in a similar way, with 100 scenarios each for the Ringold Lower Mud and Ringold A units (layers 6 and 7), based on fitted exponential variograms and conditioned to well data. In total, more than 1000 realizations were simulated to assess plume behavior under uncertainty. Results demonstrate that degradation kinetics exert the strongest control over plume persistence: Shorter half-lives produced rapid mass reduction, while longer half-lives yielded persistent plumes with limited attenuation. A nonlinear response was observed, with steep mass reductions at half-lives greater than 200 years and near-linear declines beyond this threshold, reflecting interactions between degradation and pumping. The initial plume distribution strongly influenced early transport patterns, with broader sources generating larger plume footprints, although pump-and-treat operations constrained plume migration to managed areas. By comparison, hydraulic conductivity variability in the Ringold units had only a secondary influence, modifying spreading behavior without altering the dominant migration pathways governed by source configuration and hydraulic controls. Overall, the analysis highlights that uncertainty in degradation rate and initial plume configuration are the primary drivers of variability in plume predictions, while conductivity heterogeneity plays a limited role. These findings underscore the need for improved site-specific data on degradation processes and source characterization to enhance the reliability of long-term performance assessments and to better inform remedial decision-making at the Central Plateau.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact of Thermonuclear Reaction Rate Uncertainties on the Identification of Presolar Grains from Classical Novae

Approximately 30%–40% of classical novae generate dust between 20 and 100 days following the eruption. However, there has yet to be a definitive identification of presolar stardust grains originating from classical novae. While multiple studies have suggested a nova origin for specific grains, aligning simultaneously all measured isotopic ratios of a specific grain with those predicted from simulations remains challenging. Using Monte Carlo simulations, this work investigates how uncertainties in thermonuclear reaction rates influence the isotopic ratios predicted in simulations of classical novae, specifically impacting the identification of presolar grains. In particular, we address two questions: (i) What is the impact of uncertainties in reaction rates on the range of isotopic ratios predicted by classical nova simulations? (ii) Which reaction rate uncertainties most significantly influence the predicted abundance ratios in presolar grains? Our results show that current reaction rate uncertainties affect the isotopic ratios of 12 C/ 13 C, 14 N/ 15 N, 16 O/ 17 O, 16 O/ 18 O, 24 Mg/ 25 Mg, 24 Mg/ 26 Mg, 26 Al/ 27 Al, and 28 Si/ 29 Si by less than 20% in either carbon–oxygen or oxygen–neon (ONe) novae, especially when considering the mixing of matter throughout the entire envelope. However, the isotopic ratios of 28 Si/ 30 Si, 32 S/ 33 S, and 32 S/ 34 S in ONe novae are exceptions: their variability greatly exceeds a factor of 2 due to the uncertainties in the reaction rates of 30 P(p,γ) 31 S, 33 S(p,γ) 34 Cl, and 34 S(p,γ) 35 Cl, respectively. These results highlight the significant influence of specific reaction rates on the predicted abundance ratios and underscore the necessity for accurate nuclear measurements to reduce these uncertainties.

Classical novae↗
DOE OSTI2025

Elemental and Isotopic Yields from T Coronae Borealis: Predictions and Uncertainties

T Coronae Borealis (T CrB) is a symbiotic recurrent nova system expected to undergo its next outburst within the next 2 yr. Recent hydrodynamic simulations have predicted the nucleosynthetic yields for both carbon–oxygen (CO) and oxygen–neon (ONe) white-dwarf models, but without accounting for thermonuclear reaction rate uncertainties. We perform detailed Monte Carlo postprocessing nucleosynthesis calculations based on updated thermonuclear reaction rates and uncertainties from the 2025 evaluation. We quantify the resulting abundance uncertainties and identify the key nuclear reactions that dominate them. Our results show that both the CO and ONe nova models robustly produce characteristic CNO isotopes. More pronounced abundance differences emerge for elements with A ≥ 20. Sulfur is the most robust observational discriminator between the CO and ONe nova models, with a model-to-model difference of a factor of ≈30 and minimal sensitivity to reaction rate uncertainties. Neon, silicon, and phosphorus exhibit even larger abundance differences (factors of ≈150–250), providing strong diagnostic potential. While their predicted yields are subject to larger uncertainties, these remain smaller than the model-to-model differences, allowing these elements to serve as useful, though less precise, tracers of white-dwarf composition. Chlorine, argon, and potassium also differ between models, but the 1σ-abundance ranges for the CO and ONe models overlap, reducing their present usefulness as composition tracers. We find that only nine nuclear reactions dominate the abundance uncertainties of the most diagnostically important isotopes, and their influence is largely independent of the underlying white-dwarf composition. These results provide guidance for future experimental efforts and for interpreting ejecta compositions in the next eruption of T CrB.

Chemical Abundances↗
DOE OSTI2025

On the Need to Align Intent and Implementation in Uncertainty Quantification for Machine Learning

Quantifying uncertainties for machine learning (ML) models is a foundational challenge in modern data analysis. This challenge is compounded by at least two key aspects of the field: (a) inconsistent terminology surrounding uncertainty and estimation across disciplines, and (b) the varying technical requirements for establishing trustworthy uncertainties in diverse problem contexts. In this position paper, we aim to clarify the depth of these challenges by identifying these inconsistencies and articulating how different contexts impose distinct epistemic demands. We examine the current landscape of estimation targets (e.g., prediction, inference, simulation-based inference), uncertainty constructs (e.g., frequentist, Bayesian, fiducial), and the approaches used to map between them. Drawing on the literature, we highlight and explain examples of problematic mappings. To help address these issues, we advocate for standards that promote alignment between the \textit{intent} and \textit{implementation} of uncertainty quantification (UQ) approaches. We discuss several axes of trustworthiness that are necessary (if not sufficient) for reliable UQ in ML models, and show how these axes can inform the design and evaluation of uncertainty-aware ML systems. Our practical recommendations focus on scientific ML, offering illustrative cases and use scenarios, particularly in the context of simulation-based inference (SBI).

Trivedi, Shubhendu [MIT] (ORCID:0000000312374301)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Neural correspondence to spectrum of environmental uncertainty in multiple-cue probability judgment system with time delay

Despite state-of-the-art technologies like artificial intelligence, human judgment is critically essential in cooperative systems, such as the multi-agent system (MAS), which collect information among agents based on multiple-cue judgment. Human agents can prevent impaired situational awareness of automated agents by confirming situations under environmental uncertainty. System error caused by uncertainty can result in an unreliable system environment, and this environment affects the human agent, resulting in non-optimal decision-making in MAS. Thus, it is necessary to know how human behavior is changed to capture system reliability under uncertainty. Another issue affecting MAS is time delay, which can delay agent information transfer, resulting in low performance and instability. However, it is difficult to find studies on the influence of time delay on human agents. This study is about understanding the human decision-making process under a specific system reliability environment by uncertainty with time delay. We used concepts of expected and unexpected uncertainty to implement reliability of the system usage environment with three types of time delay conditions: no time delay, regular time delay, and irregular time delay conditions. We used electroencephalogram (EEG) for human cognitive neural mechanisms in multiple-cue judgment systems to understand human decision-making. In the reliability of system usage environment, the unreliable system environment significantly creates less memory load by less utilization of system rules for decision-making. In terms of time delay, delayed information delivery does not significantly affect memory load for decision-making.

cognitive process↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty improvement of 22 Na based radioactive tracer dilution for determining total mass of pyroprocessing molten salt systems by 154 Eu removal

To determine the total salt mass of the molten salt systems for pyroprocessing spent nuclear fuels, a 22 Na based radioactive tracer dilution was studied in Idaho National Laboratory in recent years. This 22 Na based RTD technique was deemed feasible, but due to the gamma energy peak of 22 Na coinciding with one of the energy peaks of 154 Eu radioisotope in the molten salt, the uncertainty of the 22 Na radioactivity in the 22 Na-spiked salt samples was quite high. To improve the uncertainty of the 22 Na based RTD technique, we proposed to chemically remove the 154 Eu of the salt samples by DGA resin for gamma spectroscopy. The effectiveness of removing 154 Eu on uncertainty improvement was evaluated. Furthermore, it was found that (1) the 154 Eu fission product effect on the uncertainty and detection limit can be effectively eliminated by chemically removing the 154 Eu during the salt sample preparation and (2) the uncertainty of 22 Na radioactivity in the salt samples for electrorefining was significantly improved from 13% to 2%, showing the potential of practical engineering application of 22 Na based RTD as a safeguards technique for molten salt systems for pyroprocessing spent nuclear fuels.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Catalytic resonance theory for parametric uncertainty of programmable catalysis

Microkinetic models are useful tools for screening catalytic materials; however, errors in their input parameters can lead to significant uncertainty in model predictions of catalyst performance. Here, in this work, we investigate the impact of linear scaling and Brønsted-Evans-Polanyi relation parametric uncertainty on microkinetic predictions of programmable-catalyst performance. Two case studies are considered: a generic A-to-B prototype reaction and the oxygen evolution reaction (OER). The results show that error-unaware models can accurately predict trends and, for the prototype reaction, values of optimal waveform parameters. The specific model parameters driving output uncertainty are identified via variance-based global sensitivity analysis. However, predictions of dynamic rate enhancement can decrease when uncertainty is propagated into the models. In both cases, we identify operating conditions where the programmable catalyst achieves a rate enhancement of at least one order of magnitude despite parametric uncertainty in the model, supporting programmable catalysis as a viable strategy for exceeding the Sabatier limit.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian prior construction for uncertainty quantification in first-principles statistical mechanics

First-principles statistical mechanics enables the prediction of thermodynamic and kinetic properties of materials, but is computationally expensive. Many approaches require surrogate models to calculate energies within Monte Carlo or molecular dynamics simulations. Inexpensive surrogates such as cluster expansions enable otherwise intractable calculations by interpolating data from higher accuracy methods, such as Density Functional Theory (DFT). Surrogate models introduce uncertainty into downstream calculations, in addition to any uncertainty inherent to DFT calculations. Bayesian frameworks address this by quantifying uncertainty and incorporating expert knowledge through priors. However, constructing effective priors remains challenging. This work introduces and describes practical strategies for building Bayesian cluster expansions, focusing on basis truncation, hyperparameter selection, and ground state replication. We analyze multiple basis truncation schemes, compare cross-validation to the evidence-approximation for hyperparameter optimization, and provide methods to find and enforce ground-state-preserving models through priors. Additionally, we compare the uncertainties between different approximations to DFT (LDA, PBE, SCAN) against the uncertainty introduced with the use of cluster expansion surrogate models. These approaches are demonstrated on the BCC Li x Mg 1-x and Li x Al 1-x alloys, which are both of interest for solid-state Li batteries. Our results provide guidelines for constructing and utilizing Bayesian cluster expansions, thereby improving the transparency of materials modeling. Furthermore, the approaches and insights developed in this work can be transferred to a wide range of cluster expansion surrogate models, including the atomic cluster expansion and related machine-learned interatomic potential architectures.

Alloy theory↗
DOE OSTI2026

Uncertainty guided online ensemble for non-stationary data streams in fusion science

Machine Learning (ML) is poised to play a pivotal role in the development and operation of next-generation fusion devices. Fusion data shows non-stationary behavior with distribution drifts, resulted by both experimental evolution and machine wear-and-tear. ML models assume stationary distribution and fail to maintain performance when encountered with such non-stationary data streams. Online learning techniques have been leveraged in other domains, however it has been largely unexplored for fusion applications. In this paper, we investigate online learning for continuous adaptation to drifting data streams in the prediction of Toroidal Field (TF) coils deflection at the DIII-D fusion facility. We further address the short-term performance degradation inherent to standard online learning, which arises because ground truth is unavailable at prediction time. To mitigate this issue, we propose an uncertainty-guided online ensemble framework. The method leverages the Deep Gaussian Process Approximation (DGPA) for calibrated uncertainty estimation and uses these uncertainty measures to guide a meta-algorithm that aggregates predictions from learners trained over different historical horizons. Our results show that online learning reduces prediction error by 80% compared to a static model. The online ensemble and the proposed uncertainty-guided ensemble further reduce error by approximately 6%, and 10% respectively, relative to standard single-model online learning, while also providing calibrated uncertainty estimates to support operational decision-making.

AI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian Optimized Deep Ensemble for Uncertainty Quantification of Deep Neural Networks: a System Safety Case Study on Sodium Fast Reactor Thermal Stratification Modeling

Deep neural networks (DNNs) are increasingly important to scientific computing and engineering system simulations. Accurate uncertainty quantification (UQ) for DNNs is critical in safety-sensitive engineering domains. Traditional Deep Ensemble (DE) methods, while easy to implement, frequently suffer from poorly calibrated uncertainty estimates and limited predictive accuracy due to reliance on fixed architectures with varied weight initializations. To address these issues, we introduce a workflow that combines Bayesian Optimization (BO) and DE. The workflow is modular, scalable, and integrates parallel BO initialized with Sobol sequences to individually optimize the hyperparameters of each ensemble member. This method enhances ensemble diversity, improves predictive accuracy, and provides reliable uncertainty estimates. We evaluate the proposed BODE approach in a sodium fast reactor thermal stratification modeling case study, where we used a densely connected convolutional neural network to predict turbulent viscosity during the reactor transient with consideration of data noise. We benchmark its performance against several optimization approaches, including baseline deep ensemble, evolutionary algorithm-optimized ensemble, ensemble formed via random search combined with greedy selection, and a BO ensemble using random initialization. Here, our results demonstrate superior performance of the developed BODE approach. In noise-free scenarios, BODE notably reduces incorrect aleatoric uncertainty and significantly enhances predictive accuracy. Under conditions of 5% and 10% Gaussian noise, BODE adaptively quantifies uncertainty proportional to data noise, achieving up to an 80% reduction in root mean square error compared to baseline methods and producing well-calibrated prediction intervals.

Bayesian optimization↗
DOE OSTI2025

GenAI4UQ: A software for forward and inverse uncertainty quantification using conditional generative AI

We introduce GenAI4UQ, a software package for forward and inverse uncertainty quantification in model calibration, parameter estimation, and ensemble forecasting. GenAI4UQ leverages a generative AI-based conditional modeling framework to address limitations of traditional inverse modeling techniques, such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. By replacing computationally intensive iterative processes with a direct, learned mapping, GenAI4UQ enables efficient calibration of input parameters and generation of predictions directly from observations. The software supports rapid ensemble forecasting with robust uncertainty quantification while maintaining computational and storage efficiency. Built-in auto-tuning of hyperparameters simplifies model training, ensuring accessibility for users with varying expertise. Its versatile conditional generative framework is applicable across diverse scientific domains. While GenAI4UQ offers significant advantages in flexibility and efficiency, users should interpret its uncertainty estimates with caution in data-sparse scenarios, as the model may overestimate uncertainty—an effect common to all surrogate-based approaches including MCMC with surrogate models. Despite this, GenAI4UQ transforms inverse modeling by providing a fast, reliable, and user-friendly solution. It empowers researchers and practitioners to quickly estimate parameter distributions and generate model predictions for new observations, facilitating efficient decision-making and advancing the state of uncertainty quantification in computational modeling.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Demonstration of TOFFEE: A Response Uncertainty Quantification Tool

A key characteristic in neutron transport is nuclear data. Cross-section uncertainty is not used in MCNP6.3 to propagate response uncertainty without external analysis. Here, the TOol For Fast Error Estimation (TOFFEE) is a Python-based code developed to automate the propagation of cross-section uncertainty for MCNP evaluations. TOFFEE implements the sandwich rule to calculate the uncertainty from cross sections with sensitivity coefficients from MCNP6.3 and ENDF/B covariance data. In this paper, TOFFEE has been tested with benchmark experiments, and it has been compared to the uncertainty quantification capabilities of Sampler and TSUNAMI, within SCALE, to verify the application’s capabilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Navigating Uncertainty: Challenges in Visualizing Ensemble Data and Surrogate Models for Decision Systems

Uncertainty visualization plays a critical role in transforming ensemble simulation data into actionable insights by effectively communicating various dimensions of uncertainty within a system. The emergence of artificial intelligence-driven surrogate models trained on multirun ensemble data offers a transformative opportunity to replace computationally intensive simulations with fast estimates, enabling users to explore data spaces with unprecedented depth and interactivity. However, integrating ensemble data and surrogate models into decision-making workflows and tools introduces novel challenges for uncertainty visualization. These include reconciling and clearly communicating the unique uncertainties associated with ensembles and their surrogate model estimates, and leveraging these approximations to inform actionable decisions. This work explores these challenges in the context of high-dimensional data visualization, bridging discrete datasets with their continuous representations and addressing the complexities of systems that support iterative navigation between input and output spaces. We evaluate the role of uncertainty visualization in fostering intuitive, actionable interactions and identify critical hurdles in advancing this frontier of computational simulation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗