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Results for “Uncertainty Preservation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Breakdown of superdiffusion in perturbed quantum integrable spin chains and ladders

Superdiffusive transport with dynamical exponent z=3/2 has been firmly established at finite temperature for a class of integrable systems with a non-Abelian global symmetry G. On the inclusion of integrability-breaking perturbations, diffusive transport with z=2 is generically expected to hold in the limit of late time. Recent studies of the classical Haldane-Ishimori-Skylanin model have found that perturbations that preserve the global symmetry lead to a much slower time scale for the onset of diffusion, albeit with uncertainty over the exact scaling exponent. That is, for perturbations of strength λ, the characteristic timescale for diffusion goes as t*∼λ−α for some α. Using large-scale matrix product state simulations, we investigate this behavior for perturbations to the canonical quantum model showing superdiffusion: the S=1/2 quantum Heisenberg chain. We consider a ladder configuration and look at various perturbations that either break or preserve the SU(2) symmetry, leading to scaling exponents consistent with those observed in one classical study [McCarthy , Phys. Rev. B 110, L180301 (2024)2469-995010.1103/PhysRevB.110.L180301]: α=2 for symmetry-breaking terms and α=6 for symmetry-preserving terms. We also consider perturbations from another integrable point of the ladder model with G=SU(4) and find consistent results. Finally, we consider a generalization to an SU(3) ladder and find that the α=6 scaling appears to be universal across superdiffusive systems when the perturbations preserve the non-Abelian symmetry G.

Wang, Kevin↗
NASA NTRS1993

An optimal GPS data processing technique for precise positioning

A mathematical formula to optimally combine dual-frequency GPS pseudorange and carrier phase (integrated Doppler) data streams into a single data stream is derived in closed form. The data combination reduces the data volume and computing time in the filtering process for parameter estimation by a factor of 4 while preserving the full data strength for precise positioning. The resulting single data stream is that of carrier phase measurements with both data noise and bias uncertainty strictly defined. With this mathematical formula the single stream of optimally combined GPS measurements can be efficiently formed by simple numerical calculations. Carrier phase ambiguity resolution, when feasible, is strengthened due to the preserved full data strength with the optimally combined data and the resulting longer wavelength for the ambiguity to be resolved.

Wu, Sien-Chong↗
DOE OSTI2025

Optimal Control of Differentially Private EV Charging: A Scalable Learning Approach Under Uncertainty

Internet of Things (IoT)-enabled electric vehicles (IoEVs) enable intelligent charging coordination that accounts for grid congestion. However, increased data exchange raises privacy concerns, as charging patterns can reveal sensitive driver behavior to grid operators. Here, we propose a differentially private (DP) EV charging framework that enables coordinated control while protecting driver data with theoretical privacy guarantees. Nevertheless, integrating DP inevitably introduces uncertainty into the control strategy for EVs, which can lead to infeasible solutions. To tackle this challenge, we develop a feasible and scalable control algorithm based on constrained reinforcement learning (CRL) and convex hulls. While our framework is designed to handle the uncertainty introduced by DP, it is general and also applicable to other sources of uncertainty in EV charging, such as the stochastic nature of driver behavior and renewable variability. This ensures feasible and privacy-preserving coordination of EV charging at scale. Our method constructs convex hulls within the action space to guarantee feasibility under stochastic constraints and incorporates constraint reduction techniques to improve scalability. Case studies based on IEEE benchmark systems demonstrate that the proposed approach effectively balances feasibility under uncertainty, scalability, and privacy in large-scale EV charging control.

Engineering - Power transmission and distribution↗
NASA NTRS2015

New Insights into Amino Acid Preservation in the Early Oceans Using Modern Analytical Techniques

Protein- and non-protein-amino acids likely occupied the oceans at the time of the origin and evolution of life. Primordial soup-, hydrothermal vent-, and meteoritic-processes likely contributed to this early chemical inventory. Prebiotic synthesis and carbonaceous meteorite studies suggest that non-protein amino acids were likely more abundant than their protein-counterparts. Amino acid preservation before abiotic and biotic destruction is key to biomarker availability in paleoenvironments and remains an important uncertainty. To constrain primitive amino acid lifetimes, a 1992 archived seawater/beach sand mixture was spiked with D,L-alanine, D,L-valine (Val), alpha-aminoisobutyric acid (alpha-AIB), D,L-isovaline (Iva), and glycine (Gly). Analysis by high performance liquid chromatography with fluorescence detection (HPLC-FD) showed that only D-Val and non-protein amino acids were abundant after 2250 days. The mixture was re-analyzed in 2012 using HPLC-FD and a triple quadrupole mass spectrometer (QqQ-MS). The analytical results 20 years after the inception of the experiment were strikingly similar to those after 2250 days. To confirm that viable microorganisms were still present, the mixture was re-spiked with Gly in 2012. Aliquots were collected immediately after spiking, and at 5- and 9-month intervals thereafter. Final HPLC-FD/QqQ-MS analyses were performed in 2014. The 2014 analyses revealed that only alpha-AIB, D,L-Iva, and D-Val remained abundant. The disappearance of Gly indicated that microorganisms still lived in the mixture and were capable of consuming protein amino acids. These findings demonstrate that non-protein amino acids are minimally impacted by biological degradation and thus have very long lifetimes under these conditions. Primitive non-protein amino acids from terrestrial synthesis, or meteorite in-fall, likely experienced great-er preservation than protein amino acids in paleo-oceanic environments. Such robust molecules may have reached a steady state concentration dependent on ocean circulation through hydrothermal systems and synthetic input processes. We are presently trying to estimate this concentration.

Parker, Eric T.↗
DOE OSTI2021

The gallium isotopic composition of the Moon

Here, in this study, we present new Ga isotope data from a suite of 28 mare basalts and lunar highland rocks. The δ 71 Ga values of these samples range from -0.10 to +0.66‰ (where δ 71 Ga is the relative difference between the 71 Ga/ 69 Ga ratio of a sample and the Ga-IPGP standard), which is an order of magnitude more heterogeneous than δ 71 Ga values in terrestrial magmatic rocks. The cause of this isotopic heterogeneity must be established to estimate the bulk δ 71 Ga value of the Moon. In general, low-Ti basalts and ferroan anorthosite suite (FAS) rocks have δ 71 Ga values that are lower than high-Ti basalts and KREEP-rich rocks. The observation that rocks derived from later forming LMO cumulates have higher δ 71 Ga values suggests that Ga isotopes are fractionated by processes that operate within the chemically evolving LMO, rather than localized degassing or volatile redistribution. Correlations between indices of plagioclase removal from the LMO (e.g. Eu/Eu*) with Ga isotope ratios suggest that a Δ 71 Ga plagioclase-melt of -0.3‰, (where Δ 71 Ga plagioclase-melt is the isotopic fractionation associated with crystallization of plagioclase from a melt), could drive the observed isotopic fractionation in high-Ti mare basalts and KREEP-rich rocks. This would be consistent with the observation that FAS rocks have δ 71 Ga values that are lower than mare basalts. However, the addition of KREEP-like material into the mare basalt source regions would not contribute enough Ga to perturb the isotopic composition outside of analytical uncertainty. Thus, basalts derived from early formed LMO cumulates such as those from Apollo 15, would preserve light Ga isotopic compositions despite containing modest amounts of urKREEP. We estimate that the δ 71 Ga value of the LMO was ~0.14‰ prior to the onset of plagioclase crystallization and extraction. Whether this δ 71 Ga value is representative of the initial BSM cannot be ascertained from the current dataset. It remains plausible that the Moon accreted with a heavier Ga isotopic composition than the Earth. Alternatively, the Moon and Earth could have accreted with similar isotopic compositions (BSE = 0.00 ± 0.06‰, Kato et al., 2017) and volatile loss drove the LMO to higher δ 71 Ga values prior to formation of the lunar crust.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Generalized Copula-Polynomial Chaos Expansion for Probabilistic Power Flow Considering Nonlinear Correlations of PV Injections

This paper develops a generalized Copula-polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) framework for power system probabilistic power flow that can handle both linear and nonlinear correlations of uncertain power injections, such as wind and PVs. A data-driven Copula statistical model is used to capture the correlations of uncertain power injections. This allows us to resort to the Rosenblatt transformation to transform correlated variables into independent ones while preserving the dependence structure. This paves the way of leveraging the PCE for surrogate modeling and uncertainty quantification of power flow results, i.e., achieving the probabilistic distributions of power flows. Simulations carried out on the IEEE 57-bus system show that the proposed framework can get much more accurate results than other alternatives with different linear and nonlinear power injection correlations.

copula↗
NASA NTRS2023

Vertiport Dynamic Density

Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) is envisioned to be another spoke in a region’s transportation system, supplementing ground-based travel with air-based travel. Eventually, air taxis will be pervasive, convenient, and affordable. As demand and operations tempo increase, congestion may arise. Several characteristics of AAM reduce the applicability of techniques used in today’s National Airspace System (NAS) to manage congestion. AAM will include both scheduled and non-scheduled, on-demand operations, challenging strategic deconfliction algorithms. Flights will be fairly short, traversing an urban area, not hundreds or thousands of miles, with corresponding low energy reserves, prohibiting excessive delays. Flight operators will need flexibility in operations, scheduling a flight only minutes before departure, or diverting to an alternate vertiport if it becomes advantageous, further adding to trajectory uncertainty that would challenge strategic deconfliction. Finally, operators will desire privacy to protect sensitive information or preserve competitive advantage, limiting early access to intent information. In this paper, we present an approach for managing congestion at vertiports by providing insight into the traffic situation to support operationally-advantageous and safe land or divert decisions. We propose a metric designed with usefulness and usability in AAM operations in mind. The metric uses the sociology concept of dynamic density (DD) that takes into consideration not only number of flights, but also the interaction of those flights with the vertiport’s limited resources, namely the landing pads and the parking spots. DD supports a Pilot in Command (PIC) with decisions about whether to proceed, expedite, delay, or divert; and supports air traffic control (ATC) and vertiport operators in airspace management and vertiport usage. We demonstrate the metric on a notional vertiport scenario. We also show that DD provides better insight into congestion and resulting flight delays than an aircraft count metric used in traditional air traffic management.

Lilly Spirkovska↗
DOE OSTI2024

Local primordial non-Gaussianity from the large-scale clustering of photometric DESI luminous red galaxies

ABSTRACT We use angular clustering of luminous red galaxies from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) imaging surveys to constrain the local primordial non-Gaussianity parameter fNL. Our sample comprises over 12 million targets, covering 14 000 deg2 of the sky, with redshifts in the range 0.2 < z < 1.35. We identify Galactic extinction, survey depth, and astronomical seeing as the primary sources of systematic error, and employ linear regression and artificial neural networks to alleviate non-cosmological excess clustering on large scales. Our methods are tested against simulations with and without fNL and systematics, showing superior performance of the neural network treatment. The neural network with a set of nine imaging property maps passes our systematic null test criteria, and is chosen as the fiducial treatment. Assuming the universality relation, we find $f_{\rm NL} = 34^{+24(+50)}_{-44(-73)}$ at 68 per cent (95 per cent) confidence. We apply a series of robustness tests (e.g. cuts on imaging, declination, or scales used) that show consistency in the obtained constraints. We study how the regression method biases the measured angular power spectrum and degrades the fNL constraining power. The use of the nine maps more than doubles the uncertainty compared to using only the three primary maps in the regression. Our results thus motivate the development of more efficient methods that avoid overcorrection, protect large-scale clustering information, and preserve constraining power. Additionally, our results encourage further studies of fNL with DESI spectroscopic samples, where the inclusion of 3D clustering modes should help separate imaging systematics and lessen the degradation in the fNL uncertainty.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multifidelity uncertainty quantification with models based on dissimilar parameters

Multifidelity uncertainty quantification (MF UQ) sampling approaches have been shown to significantly reduce the variance of statistical estimators while preserving the bias of the highest-fidelity model, provided that the low-fidelity models are well correlated. However, maintaining a high level of correlation can be challenging, especially when models depend on different input uncertain parameters, which drastically reduces the correlation. Existing MF UQ approaches do not adequately address this issue. In this work, we propose a new sampling strategy that exploits a shared space to improve the correlation among models with dissimilar parameterization. We achieve this by transforming the original coordinates onto an auxiliary manifold using the adaptive basis (AB) method (Tipireddy and Ghanem, 2014). The AB method has two main benefits: (1) it provides an effective tool to identify the low-dimensional manifold on which each model can be represented, and (2) it enables easy transformation of polynomial chaos representations from high- to low-dimensional spaces. This latter feature is used to identify a shared manifold among models without requiring additional evaluations. Here we present two algorithmic flavors of the new estimator to cover different analysis scenarios, including those with legacy and non-legacy high-fidelity (HF) data. We provide numerical results for analytical examples, a direct field acoustic test, and a finite element model of a nuclear fuel assembly. For all examples, we compare the proposed strategy against both single-fidelity and MF estimators based on the original model parameterization.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Experiments for SINBAD: Evaluation of Oak Ridge Health Physics Research Reactor Operation Data for CAAS Benchmark Creation [Slides]

This report was a real information preservation and dissemination work with a lot of legacy content that was found and used. There was an abundance of uncertainty, discrepancy, and contradictory information. Yet, a detailed, functional SCALE model was built, and the benchmark created is useful for shielding and CAAs validation work. Sulfur fluence C/E ratios are large (2 to 5), so different benchmark metrics were studied. Neutron fluence, element 57 dose, and other dosimetry responses at 3 meters C/E ratios are below 1.5 for bare and steel configurations. Additional promising metrics as dose per unit fluence and steel shield attenuation were computed.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty Quantification for Multiphase Computational Fluid Dynamics Closure Relations with a Physics-Informed Bayesian Approach

Multiphase Computational Fluid Dynamics (MCFD) based on the two-fluid model is considered a promising tool to model complex two-phase flow systems. MCFD simulation can predict local flow features without resolving interfacial information. As a result, the MCFD solver relies on closure relations to describe the interaction between the two phases. Those empirical or semi-mechanistic closure relations constitute a major source of uncertainty for MCFD predictions. In this paper, we leverage a physics-informed uncertainty quantification (UQ) approach to inversely quantify the closure relations’ model form uncertainty in a physically consistent manner. This proposed approach considers the model form uncertainty terms as stochastic fields that are additive to the closure relation outputs. Combining dimensionality reduction and Gaussian processes, the posterior distribution of the stochastic fields can be effectively quantified within the Bayesian framework with the support of experimental measurements. As this UQ approach is fully integrated into the MCFD solving process, the physical constraints of the system can be naturally preserved in the UQ results. Here, in a case study of adiabatic bubbly flow, we demonstrate that this UQ approach can quantify the model form uncertainty of the MCFD interfacial force closure relations, thus effectively improving the simulation results with relatively sparse data support.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1975

A Practical Statistical Model for Telecommunications Performance Uncertainty

A statistical method, the probability distribution method, is presented which will give the probability of link performance values. The advantages of a design control procedure are preserved and optimum use of the system capabilities is permitted by improving the accuracy and completeness of the system model.

Yuen, J. H.↗
NASA NTRS1989

On the control of elastic vehicles - Model simplification and stability robustness

Quantitative criteria are presented for model simplification, or order reduction, such that the reduced order model may be used to synthesize and evaluate a control law, and the stability and stability robustness obtained using the reduced-order model will be preserved when controlling the full-order system. The error introduced due to model simplification is treated as modeling uncertainty, and some of the results from multivariable robustness theory are brought to bear on the model simplification problem. A numerical procedure developed previously is shown to lead to results that meet the necessary criteria. The procedure is applied to reduce the model of a flexible aircraft. Also, the importance of the control law itself, in meeting the modeling criteria, is underscored. An example is included that demonstrates that an apparently robust control law actually amplifies modest modeling errors in the critical frequency region, and leads to undesirable results. The cause of this problem is identified to be associated with the canceling of lightly-damped transmission zeroes in the plant.

Schmidt, David K.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Multivariable frequency weighted model order reduction for control synthesis

Quantitative criteria are presented for model simplification, or order reduction, such that the reduced order model may be used to synthesize and evaluate a control law, and the stability robustness obtained using the reduced order model will be preserved when controlling the full-order system. The error introduced due to model simplification is treated as modeling uncertainty, and some of the results from multivariate robustness theory are brought to bear on the model simplification problem. A numerical procedure developed previously is shown to lead to results that meet the necessary criteria. The procedure is applied to reduce the model of a flexible aircraft. Also, the importance of the control law itself, in meeting the modeling criteria, is underscored. An example is included that demonstrates that an apparently robust control law actually amplifies modest modeling errors in the critical frequency region, and leads to undesirable results. The cause of this problem is associated with the canceling of lightly damped transmission zeroes in the plant. An attempt is made to expand on some of the earlier results and to further clarify the theoretical basis behind the proposed methodology.

Schmidt, David K.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Adaptive Uncertainty Quantification for Stochastic Hyperbolic Conservation Laws

Here, we propose a predictor-corrector adaptive method for the study of hyperbolic partial differential equations (PDEs) under uncertainty. Constructed around the framework of stochastic finite volume (SFV) methods, our approach circumvents sampling schemes or simulation ensembles while also preserving fundamental properties, in particular hyperbolicity of the resulting systems and conservation of the discrete solutions. Furthermore, we augment the existing SFV theory with a priori convergence results for statistical quantities, in particular push-forward densities, which we demonstrate through numerical experiments. By linking refinement indicators to regions of the physical and stochastic spaces, we drive anisotropic refinements of the discretizations, introducing new degrees of freedom where deemed profitable. To illustrate our proposed method, we consider a series of numerical examples for nonlinear hyperbolic PDEs based on Burgers’ and Euler’s equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Toward Quantity-of-Interest Preserving Lossy Compression for Scientific Data

Today's scientific simulations and instruments are producing a large amount of data, leading to difficulties in storing, transmitting, and analyzing these data. While error-controlled lossy compressors are effective in significantly reducing data volumes and efficiently developing databases for multiple scientific applications, they mainly support error controls on raw data, which leaves a significant gap between the data and user's downstream analysis. This may cause unqualified uncertainties in the outcomes of the analysis, a.k.a quantities of interest (QoIs), which are the major concerns of users in adopting lossy compression in practice. In this paper, we propose rigorous mathematical theories to preserve four families of QoIs that are widely used in scientific analysis during lossy compression along with practical implementations. Specifically, we first develop the error control theory for univariate QoIs which are essential for computing physical properties such as kinetic energy, followed by multivariate QoIs that are more commonly used in real-world applications. The proposed method is integrated into a state-of-the-art compression framework in a modular fashion, which could easily adapt to new QoIs and new compression algorithms. Experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that the proposed method provides faithful error control on important QoIs including kinetic energy, regional average, and isosurface without trials and errors, while offering compression ratios that are up to 4x of the compression ratios provided by state-of-the-art compressors.

Jiao, Pu↗