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Results for “Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2019

Improving Accuracy of Structural Dynamic Modification with Augmented Residual Vectors

It is often important to perform sensitivity analysis to determine how a structural model will be impacted by design changes. Often, the structural analysts will manually make changes to the finite element model (FEM) to determine the effects. But when dealing with a large FEM with millions of degrees of freedom these manual changes can be cumbersome and calculation of the effects can computationally expensive. Therefore, it is desirable to determine the effects of model changes through approximation methods. One common technique is to determine the analytical sensitivity of the FEM model with respect to the given change. These analytical sensitivities are valid when small changes are made to the structural model, but invalid if large changes need to be assessed. Another approach is to use Structural Dynamic Modification (SDM) to create a surrogate model to analyze model changes. SDM is a widely-used sensitivity method and is used in applications of model updating, uncertainty quantification, and model design studies. SMD is valid for moderate (10-20 percent) changes in the structural model, but model approximations are often needed for large parameter changes (greater than 20 percent). Structural Dynamic Modification can be improved by using residual vectors to augment the surrogate model formulation from SDM. Adding the residual modes increases the fidelity of the surrogate model while keeping the computational cost low. This paper discusses the application and limitations of the augmented residual modes method to two structures: the Integrated Spacecraft and Payload Element (ISPE) of the Space Launch System (SLS) and the full SLS as it is configured during its Integrated Modal Test (IMT).

Stewart, Eric C.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Real Options Analysis for Valuation of Climate Adaptation Pathways With Application to Transit Infrastructure

Climate change and sea level rise (SLR) are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of coastal flood events, posing risks to coastal communities and infrastructure. While regional climate adaptation investments can provide substantive flood protection, existing plans often neglect uncertainty in future climate conditions and adaptation performance, consequently neglecting the option value of flexibly implementing proposed projects. Addressing this gap, we develop and employ a generalizable real options analysis (ROA) valuation framework that considers how uncertainty in adaptation project costs, SLR, flood severity, and flood losses inform the full range of adaptation performance outcomes. We further propose and apply a novel, computationally efficient flood loss sampling algorithm to estimate the consequences of randomly arriving coastal flood events. We apply this ROA framework to assess the option value of flexibly timing adaptation investments over time, investigating an adaptation pathway proposed by the City of Boston from the perspective of the regional transit system manager. Our results suggest that flexible implementation can provide significant option value in the near-to mid-term(>30 years), with highest option values under low-probability, high consequence scenarios. Our results also suggest adaptation pathway performance in the latter half of the 21stcenturyis most sensitive to uncertainty in sea level rise, flood loss estimates, and flood frequency, underscoring the importance of uncertainty quantification in the long-term valuation of adaptation investments.

Michael V. Martello↗
NASA NTRS1995

Probabilistic material strength degradation model for Inconel 718 components subjected to high temperature, high-cycle and low-cycle mechanical fatigue, creep and thermal fatigue effects

This report presents the results of both the fifth and sixth year effort of a research program conducted for NASA-LeRC by The University of Texas at San Antonio (UTSA). The research included on-going development of methodology for a probabilistic material strength degradation model. The probabilistic model, in the form of a postulated randomized multifactor equation, provides for quantification of uncertainty in the lifetime material strength of aerospace propulsion system components subjected to a number of diverse random effects. This model is embodied in the computer program entitled PROMISS, which can include up to eighteen different effects. Presently, the model includes five effects that typically reduce lifetime strength: high temperature, high-cycle mechanical fatigue, low-cycle mechanical fatigue, creep and thermal fatigue. Statistical analysis was conducted on experimental Inconel 718 data obtained from the open literature. This analysis provided regression parameters for use as the model's empirical material constants, thus calibrating the model specifically for Inconel 718. Model calibration was carried out for five variables, namely, high temperature, high-cycle and low-cycle mechanical fatigue, creep and thermal fatigue. Methodology to estimate standard deviations of these material constants for input into the probabilistic material strength model was developed. Using an updated version of PROMISS, entitled PROMISS93, a sensitivity study for the combined effects of high-cycle mechanical fatigue, creep and thermal fatigue was performed. Then using the current version of PROMISS, entitled PROMISS94, a second sensitivity study including the effect of low-cycle mechanical fatigue, as well as, the three previous effects was performed. Results, in the form of cumulative distribution functions, illustrated the sensitivity of lifetime strength to any current value of an effect. In addition, verification studies comparing a combination of high-cycle mechanical fatigue and high temperature effects by model to the combination by experiment were conducted. Thus, for Inconel 718, the basic model assumption of independence between effects was evaluated. Results from this limited verification study strongly supported this assumption.

Bast, Callie C.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Reliability Quantification of the Flexure: A Critical Stirling Convertor Component

Uncertainties in the manufacturing, fabrication process, material behavior, loads, and boundary conditions results in the variation of the stresses and strains induced in the flexures and its fatigue life. Past experience and the test data at material coupon levels revealed a significant amount of scatter of the fatigue life. Owing to these facts, the design of the flexure, using conventional approaches based on safety factor or traditional reliability based on similar equipment considerations does not provide a direct measure of reliability. Additionally, it may not be feasible to run actual long term fatigue tests due to cost and time constraints. Therefore it is difficult to ascertain material fatigue strength limit. The objective of the paper is to present a methodology and quantified results of numerical simulation for the reliability of flexures used in the Stirling convertor for their structural performance. The proposed approach is based on application of finite element analysis method in combination with the random fatigue limit model, which includes uncertainties in material fatigue life. Additionally, sensitivity of fatigue life reliability to the design variables is quantified and its use to develop guidelines to improve design, manufacturing, quality control and inspection design process is described.

Shah, Ashwin R.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA's Unsteady Pressure-Sensitive Paint Research and Operational Capability Developments

In the last three years, several advancements have been made to produce a new state-of-the-art capability in the field of Aerosciences. NASA’s Aerosciences Evaluations and Test Capabilities (AETC) Portfolio Office has funded a multi-year project to produce the unsteady Pressure-Sensitive Paint (uPSP) technology as an operational capability in key ground test facilities at NASA. The research and development has primarily been conducted at NASA Ames Research Center’s (ARC) Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel (UPWT) 11-by 11-ft Transonic Wind Tunnel (TWT). The NASA ARC UPWT is one of the ground test facilities under NASA AETC’s Portfolio Office. AETC’s goals are to provide the tools to deliver the technology innovations and breakthroughs necessary to address increasingly complex research and development challenges. AETC’s integrated approach will consider the complimentary high-end compute capabilities necessary to advance analysis in conjunction with ground experimental capabilities. The uPSP Capability Challenge Project is a demonstration of several different technologies: 1) the unsteady Pressure-Sensitive Paint (uPSP) technology, and 2) Project: Red Rover, establishing a secure, reliable, fast connection between experimental and computation facilities, leveraging NASA’s computational resources within the High-End Compute Capability (HECC) Project for processing, storing, and sharing data efficiently. This project demonstrates the technical diversity and technical inclusion need to advance the field of Aerosciences. The approach to combine subject matter experts in experimental methods, optical methods, production wind tunnel testing, network engineering, high-end computing, signal processing, grid generation, and visualization while establishing the required infrastructure for subject matter experts to have access to the data while the wind tunnel test is being conducted. The most recent advancements for the uPSP technology have focused on three key areas: development of data products, robust processing pipeline, operational efficiencies and uncertainty quantification.

buffet↗
NASA NTRS1999

A Quantitative Study of Oxygen as a Metabolic Regulator

An acute reduction in oxygen (O2) delivery to a tissue is generally associated with a decrease in phosphocreatine, increases in ADP, NADH/NAD, and inorganic phosphate, increased rates of glycolysis and lactate production, and reduced rates of pyruvate and fatty acid oxidation. However, given the complexity of the human bioenergetic system and its components, it is difficult to determine quantitatively how cellular metabolic processes interact to maintain ATP homeostasis during stress (e.g., hypoxia, ischemia, and exercise). Of special interest is the determination of mechanisms relating tissue oxygenation to observed metabolic responses at the tissue, organ, and whole body levels and the quantification of how changes in tissue O2 availability affect the pathways of ATP synthesis and the metabolites that control these pathways. In this study, we extend a previously developed mathematical model of human bioenergetics to provide a physicochemical framework that permits quantitative understanding of O2 as a metabolic regulator. Specifically, the enhancement permits studying the effects of variations in tissue oxygenation and in parameters controlling the rate of cellular respiration on glycolysis, lactate production, and pyruvate oxidation. The whole body is described as a bioenergetic system consisting of metabolically distinct tissue/organ subsystems that exchange materials with the blood. In order to study the dynamic response of each subsystem to stimuli, we solve the ordinary differential equations describing the temporal evolution of metabolite levels, given the initial concentrations. The solver used in the present study is the packaged code LSODE, as implemented in the NASA Lewis kinetics and sensitivity analysis code, LSENS. A major advantage of LSENS is the efficient procedures supporting systematic sensitivity analysis, which provides the basic methods for studying parameter sensitivities (i.e., changes in model behavior due to parameter variation). Sensitivity analysis establishes relationships between model predictions and problem parameters (i.e., initial concentrations, rate coefficients, etc). It helps determine the effects of uncertainties or changes in these input parameters on the predictions, which ultimately are compared with experimental observations in order to validate the model. Sensitivity analysis can identify parameters that must be determined accurately because of their large effect on the model predictions and parameters that need not be known with great precision because they have little or no effect on the solution. This capability may prove to be important in optimizing the design of experiments, thereby reducing the use of animals. This approach can be applied to study the metabolic effects of reduced oxygen delivery to cardiac muscle due to local myocardial ischemia and the effects of acute hypoxia on brain metabolism. Other important applications of sensitivity analysis include identification of quantitatively relevant pathways and biochemical species within an overall mechanism, when examining the effects of a genetic anomaly or pathological state on energetic system components and whole system behavior.

Radhakrishnan, Krishnan↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Reconstruction of Thermal Protection System Aeroheating using a Green’s Function Approach

Inverse heat transfer (IHT) techniques are often used to reconstruct the surface heating conditions on spacecraft thermal protection systems (TPS) during atmospheric entry. Current IHT techniques for entry spacecraft applications, however, demand substantial computational resources, and are impractical for analyses such as uncertainty quantification and real-time health monitoring. In this paper, a Green’s function sensor fusion approach is used to reconstruct the TPS surface aeroheating conditions on experimental spaceflight and ground test systems from collocated temperature and heat flux sensors embedded in the TPS. The algorithm leverages Green’s functions to model the heat conduction within the spacecraft TPS and stabilizes the recovery of the surface heating condition using the direct heat flux sensor measurement. The algorithm is validated using arc-jet ground test data and applied to the reconstruction of the Mars 2020 backshell heating during Martian atmospheric entry. The performance of the algorithm is benchmarked against a current state-of-the-art IHT framework, FIAT_Opt. The Green’s function-based reconstruction algorithm recovers the net hot-wall heat flux absorbed by the TPS and the incident heat flux from the atmospheric entry environment in close agreement with FIAT_Opt. Notably, computation of the surface heating condition is completed in three orders of magnitude less time with the Green’s function sensor fusion approach using a consumer-grade PC, versus with FIAT_Opt running on a high performance computer cluster. The efficiency of the algorithm is leveraged to compute the uncertainty contributions of input parameters to the total uncertainty in reconstructed Mars 2020 backshell heating for the full atmospheric entry heat pulse. The sensitivity analysis uncovers that, at different times throughout the entry heat pulse, uncertainties in the TPS specific heat, thermal conductivity, and emissivity are all dominant drivers of the reconstruction uncertainty. These results demonstrate Green’s functions and sensor-fusion techniques as promising IHT approaches to reconstruct atmospheric entry environments from TPS-embedded measurements, and highlight how these techniques may give access to post-flight analyses previously hindered by the prohibitive cost of current methods.

Kenneth McAfee↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Reconstruction of Thermal Protection System Aeroheating using a Green’s Function Approach

Inverse heat transfer (IHT) techniques are often used to reconstruct the surface heating conditions on spacecraft thermal protection systems (TPS) during atmospheric entry. Current IHT techniques for entry spacecraft applications, however, demand substantial computational resources, and are impractical for analyses such as uncertainty quantification and real-time health monitoring. In this paper, a Green’s function sensor fusion approach is used to reconstruct the TPS surface aeroheating conditions on experimental spaceflight and ground test systems from collocated temperature and heat flux sensors embedded in the TPS. The algorithm leverages Green’s functions to model the heat conduction within the spacecraft TPS and stabilizes the recovery of the surface heating condition using the direct heat flux sensor measurement. The algorithm is validated using arc-jet ground test data and applied to the reconstruction of the Mars 2020 backshell heating during Martian atmospheric entry. The performance of the algorithm is benchmarked against a current state-of-the-art IHT framework, FIAT_Opt. The Green’s function-based reconstruction algorithm recovers the net hot-wall heat flux absorbed by the TPS and the incident heat flux from the atmospheric entry environment in close agreement with FIAT_Opt. Notably, computation of the surface heating condition is completed in three orders of magnitude less time with the Green’s function sensor fusion approach using a consumer-grade PC, versus with FIAT_Opt running on a high performance computer cluster. The efficiency of the algorithm is leveraged to compute the uncertainty contributions of input parameters to the total uncertainty in reconstructed Mars 2020 backshell heating for the full atmospheric entry heat pulse. The sensitivity analysis uncovers that, at different times throughout the entry heat pulse, uncertainties in the TPS specific heat, thermal conductivity, and emissivity are all dominant drivers of the reconstruction uncertainty. These results demonstrate Green’s functions and sensor-fusion techniques as promising IHT approaches to reconstruct atmospheric entry environments from TPS-embedded measurements, and highlight how these techniques may give access to post-flight analyses previously hindered by the prohibitive cost of current methods.

Kenneth McAfee↗
NASA NTRS2008

Advanced Stirling Convertor Heater Head Durability and Reliability Quantification

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has identified the high efficiency Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG) as a candidate power source for long duration Science missions, such as lunar applications, Mars rovers, and deep space missions, that require reliable design lifetimes of up to 17 years. Resistance to creep deformation of the MarM-247 heater head (HH), a structurally critical component of the ASRG Advanced Stirling Convertor (ASC), under high temperatures (up to 850 C) is a key design driver for durability. Inherent uncertainties in the creep behavior of the thin-walled HH and the variations in the wall thickness, control temperature, and working gas pressure need to be accounted for in the life and reliability prediction. Due to the availability of very limited test data, assuring life and reliability of the HH is a challenging task. The NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) has adopted an integrated approach combining available uniaxial MarM-247 material behavior testing, HH benchmark testing and advanced analysis in order to demonstrate the integrity, life and reliability of the HH under expected mission conditions. The proposed paper describes analytical aspects of the deterministic and probabilistic approaches and results. The deterministic approach involves development of the creep constitutive model for the MarM-247 (akin to the Oak Ridge National Laboratory master curve model used previously for Inconel 718 (Special Metals Corporation)) and nonlinear finite element analysis to predict the mean life. The probabilistic approach includes evaluation of the effect of design variable uncertainties in material creep behavior, geometry and operating conditions on life and reliability for the expected life. The sensitivity of the uncertainties in the design variables on the HH reliability is also quantified, and guidelines to improve reliability are discussed.

Krause, David L.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

SWIPE: Spectral Water Inversion Processor and Emulator

Degradation of Earth’s inland water resources due to anthropogenic perturbations and climate anomalies at both local and global scales continues to place human health at substantial risk. There is now a growing necessity to develop pragmatic approaches that allow timely and effective extrapolation of local processes, to spatially resolved global products, and to promote operational and sustainable resource policy management. This presentation will be discussing the progress made developing SWIPE: Spectral Water Inversion Processor and Emulator. SWIPE is a platform for advanced modeling of coastal and inland aquatic habitats. The goal is create a comprehensive and cohesive system to leverage recent advancements in computation and machine learning to develop a synthetic training ground for sensitivity studies and algorithm development. The four principal facets of SWIPE include: 1. Advanced two-layer coated sphere bio-optical modeling and GPU radiative transfer modeling, 2. Big Data involving massive synthetic spectral libraries of optical properties of various global aquatic particles, surface reflectance, and top-of-atmosphere reflectance, all at hyperspectral resolution leveraging high-end computing systems at NASA Ames Research Center, 3. Deep Learning for algorithm development for water quality inversion of concentrations of common biogeophysical variables as well as optics, full uncertainty characterization by water type, and forward emulation, and lastly, 4. Image Processing for application of developed retrieval algorithms for both hyperspectral and multispectral sensors with experimental corrections for global adjacency, noise, sunglint, and benthic reflectance. This presentation will demonstrate the Equivalent Algal Populations (EAP) two-layer coated sphere scattering model which has been used develop spectral libraries of hyperspectral inherent optical properties of roughly 80 species of phytoplankton, covering 15 different classes and nine taxonomic functional types. The EAP model was also used to derive spectral properties of 10 different non-algal particle functional types. Examples of how the SMART-G (Speed-up Monte-carlo Advanced Radiative Transfer using GPU) radiative transfer code is used to model optically complex aquatic signals will be presented and discussed in the context of creating a massive synthetic database which can leverage the full power of next generation machine learning techniques and high end computing for water quality inversion. We will discuss our active investigation in things like appropriate model architectures, dimensionality reduction techniques such as PCA and autoencoders, uncertainty quantification and abstaining, and which variables actually benefit most from hyperspectral information versus multispectral resolution. We are also curious about questions relating to cost/benefit analysis in terms of computation resources, neural network complexity, and data volumes. Answers to these questions will hopefully elaborate on cost efficiency for potential future sensor design considerations.

SWIPE↗