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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3

Estimating the economic value of hydropeaking externalities in regulated rivers

Hydropower is a flexible form of electricity generation providing both baseload and balancing power to accommodate intermittent renewables in the energy mix. However, hydropower also generates various externalities. This study investigates individuals' preferences for policies aiming to reduce short-term regulations (i.e., hydropeaking in regulated rivers) while accounting for associated externalities with a discrete choice experiment. This is the first valuation study focusing on hydropeaking that considers both negative and positive externalities. The results imply that most individuals prefer stronger restrictions on short-term regulations to mitigate local environmental impacts. Individuals especially value improvements in recreational use, fish stocks, and the ecological state. On the other hand, potential increases in CO 2 emissions are linked with a clear disutility. The estimated benefits obtained from an improved state of the river environment due to such restrictions exceed the disutility caused by increased CO 2 emissions. Furthermore, the results also reveal unobserved preference heterogeneity among individuals, which should be accounted for in the willingness-to-pay (WTP) estimation using a model specification with correlated utility coefficients. Overall, the findings can inform policy-makers and environmental managers on the economic value of hydropeaking externalities and further guide the sustainable management of rivers regulated for hydropower generation.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Universal method for the optimization of HDC coating uniformity on non-planar, non-stationary substrates for inertial confinement fusion targets

The thickness uniformity of chemical vapor deposited (CVD) diamond coatings on non-planar, non-stationary substrates depends on both the intrinsic instantaneous coating thickness distribution (ICTD) of the coating conditions used and, if applicable, on the frequency of substrate reorientation. While important for many CVD diamond applications, the relative impact of the ICTD and substrate reorientation on the coating thickness uniformity has not been studied. In this work, we systematically investigate the effect of these factors for microwave-plasma chemical vapor deposition (MPCVD) of diamond (referred to as high density carbon (HDC) in the inertial confinement fusion (ICF) community) coatings on spherical, rolling substrates. This coating technique is used to fabricate capsules for ICF experiments, which require extreme coating uniformity with <0.3 % thickness variation (so-called Mode 1 or M1) to ensure symmetric compression of imploding targets. To extract the otherwise unobservable reorientation timescale (Δt), Monte Carlo simulations were performed using experimental ICTD data as input. This combined approach confirms scaling relationships between the substrate reorientation timescale as well as coating thickness and coating uniformity, as expected from a 3D random walk. Simulations confirm that M1 is Rayleigh-distributed and scales as (Δt) 1/2 , consistent with the randomization of two angles that determine orientation of a sphere. We also demonstrate that, under the conditions studied, Δt is the dominant factor in determining thickness uniformity while the intrinsic ICTD has minimal impact. Finally, experiments show that Δt can be affected by total batch size under constant agitation conditions due to space constraints that limit the capsule reorientation kinetics. In conclusion, this study highlights the utility of a combined experiment-simulation approach as a general methodology for understanding and improving coating uniformity on non-planar, non-stationary substrates.

Capsule↗

Identification of hot water end-use process of electric water heaters from energy measurements

This paper presents an algorithm for the identification of parameters for a stochastic hot water end-use process that drives a homogeneous population of thermostatically controlled electric water heaters (EWH). Usually, only metered interval consumption data (kWh) is collected and the hot water end-use process is unobservable to utility and aggregators. However, the availability of EWHs for demand response (DR) is closely coupled with the hot water end-use process. In this context, the hot water end-use process is modeled as a two-state Markov chain (Use / No use), which causes the thermostatic ON-OFF switching process to behave as a Markov renewal process (MRP). A set of first passage-time problems is developed to obtain the moments of the transition probability densities of the MRP. These problems are addressed by establishing a system of coupled partial differential equations characterizing the temperature evolution of the EWH population. A key quantity in the methodology for estimating the parameters is the total time an EWH is ON within a period of interest. It is referred to as the total busy time. Total busy time in this approach is a random variable for which analytical expressions of the moments are developed as a function of the metered window length. The latter expressions become the basis of a hot water demand model identification algorithm which is validated using agent-based simulations of EWHs.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Multi-agent voltage control in distribution systems using GAN-DRL-based approach

Active distribution grids can experience voltage fluctuations and violations due to the high penetration of variable distributed energy resources (DERs). These problems might occur because of the uncertain and variable generation natures of these resources, especially solar photovoltaic resources, during panel shadowing scenarios. Volt-VAR control (VVC) is an efficient method that controls the reactive power set-points of the inverters to regulate the voltage of distribution grids. Although several VVC approaches have been proposed recently, the performance of these approaches degrades significantly if behind-the-meter solar generation data are unobservable/missing. Therefore, it is necessary to impute missing/unobservable PV data accurately to be utilized in VVC approaches. Further, this paper proposes a model-free, data-driven, centrally trained, and decentrally executed multi-agent deep reinforcement learning-based VVC architecture to regulate the voltage of distribution networks. A generative adversarial network (GAN) is incorporated to impute the unobservable PV data accurately, which improves the performance of the proposed control architecture. The proposed multi-agent-soft-actor–critic algorithm (MASAC)-based VVC technique utilizes the actual PV dataset as well as the imputed dataset from the GAN framework to learn the optimal coordinated control policy for controlling the optimal reactive power set-points of PV inverters. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is analyzed on a modified IEEE 34-bus test case with added PV inverters. The results are compared and analyzed with a base case model with no VVC and VVC with a local droop control approach, genetic algorithm optimization, and a centralized soft actor–critic-based approach. Moreover, the performance of the proposed approach is compared with that of a multi-agent VVC framework without using the PV generation data and load information as the system state. The results illustrate that the proposed method with more state input improves the voltage profile and reduces the power loss of the network across various loading and PV generation scenarios.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Physics-Informed Gaussian Process Regression for States Estimation and Forecasting in Power Grids

Real-time state estimation and forecasting are critical for the efficient operation of power grids. In this paper, a physics-informed Gaussian process regression (PhI-GPR) method is presented and used for forecasting and estimating the phase angle, angular speed, and wind mechanical power of a three-generator power grid system using sparse measurements. In standard data-driven Gaussian process regression (GPR), parameterized models for the prior statistics are fit by maximizing the marginal likelihood of observed data. In the PhI-GPR method, we propose to compute the prior statistics offline by solving stochastic differential equations (SDEs) governing the power grid dynamics. The short-term forecast of a power grid system dominated by wind generation is complicated by the stochastic nature of the wind and the resulting uncertainty in wind mechanical power. Here, we assume that the power grid dynamics are governed by swing equations, with the wind mechanical power fluctuating randomly in time. We solve these equations for the mean and covariances of the power grid states using the Monte Carlo simulation method. We demonstrate that the proposed PhI-GPR method can accurately forecast and estimate observed and unobserved states. For the considered problem, PhI-GPR has computational advantages over the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) method: In PhI-GPR, ensembles are computed offline and independently of the data acquisition process, whereas for EnFK, ensembles are computed online with data acquisition, rendering real-time forecast more challenging. We also demonstrate that the PhI-GPR forecast is more accurate than the EnKF forecast when the random mechanical wind power is non-Markovian. In contrast, the two methods produce similar forecasts for the Markovian mechanical wind power. For observed states, we show that PhI-GPR provides a forecast comparable to the standard data-driven GPR; both forecasts are significantly more accurate than the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) forecast. We also show that the ARIMA forecast is more sensitive to observation frequency and measurement errors than the PhI-GPR forecast.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Unsupervised probabilistic models for sequential Electronic Health Records

We develop an unsupervised probabilistic model for heterogeneous Electronic Health Record (EHR) data. Utilizing a mixture model formulation, our approach directly models sequences of arbitrary length, such as medications and laboratory results. This allows for subgrouping and incorporation of the dynamics underlying heterogeneous data types. The model consists of a layered set of latent variables that encode underlying structure in the data. These variables represent subject subgroups at the top layer, and unobserved states for sequences in the second layer. We train this model on episodic data from subjects receiving medical care in the Kaiser Permanente Northern California integrated healthcare delivery system. The resulting properties of the trained model generate novel insight from these complex and multifaceted data. In addition, we show how the model can be used to analyze sequences that contribute to assessment of mortality likelihood.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Potential Benefits in Remapping the Special Flood Hazard Area: Evidence from the U.S. Housing Market

A typical U.S. homebuyer's understanding of whether a property faces flood risk is based on whether the property is located inside the National Flood Insurance Program's (NFIP) Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA). The SFHA boundary, however, may bias homebuyers’ perceptions of flood risk relative to unobserved true risk because the SFHA is an incomplete, and sometimes inaccurate, representation of flood hazards. Using a national dataset of property transactions, flood hazard data from the First Street Foundation, state-level measures of flood disclosure laws, and a spatially restricted triple-difference design, we distinguish capitalization effects of policy-driven (SFHA) versus quasi-objective (First Street) indicators of flood hazard. We identify these effects by assessing thousands of local spatial interactions between property SFHA designations, measures of quasi-objective flood hazard, and being in a state that mandates flood history disclosures. Being inside the SFHA generates a risk discount, but the signal is muted relative to underlying hazard exposure. Further, the SFHA signal can result in inefficient discounts for properties erroneously mapped in the SFHA. Disclosure requirements about flood history accentuate price effects for hazardous properties and result in more adequate risk internalization. In the absence of disclosures, however, we find either no or a weak risk signal for houses outside the SFHA that face flood hazard. Our results highlight potential benefits of updating SFHA boundaries to include all houses that may experience flooding, and argue in favor of requiring flood-related disclosures from sellers to improve the market's ability to internalize flood risk.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A semiparametric latent factor model for large scale temporal data with heteroscedasticity

Large scale temporal data have flourished in a vast array of applications, and their sophisticated structures, especially the heteroscedasticity among subjects with inter- and intra-temporal dependence, have fueled a great demand for new statistical models. In this paper, with covariate information, we consider a flexible model for large scale temporal data with subject-specific heteroscedasticity. Formally, the model employs latent semiparametric factors to simultaneously account for the subject-specific heteroscedasticity and the contemporaneous and/or serial correlations. The subject-specific heteroscedasticity is modeled as the product of the unobserved factor process and subject’s covariate effect, which is further characterized via additive models. For estimation, we propose a two-step procedure. First, the latent factor process and nonparametric loading are recovered through projection-based methods, and following, we estimate the regression components by approaches motivated from the generalized least squares. By scrupulously examining the non-asymptotic rates for recovering the factor process and its loading, we show the consistency and efficiency of estimated regression coefficients in the absence of prior knowledge of latent factor process and subject’s covariate effect. Here, the statistical guarantees remain valid even for finite time points that makes our method particularly appealing when the subjects significantly outnumber the observation time points. Using comprehensive simulations, we demonstrate the finite sample performance of our method, which corroborates the theoretical findings. Finally, we apply our method to a data set of air quality and energy consumption collected at 129 monitoring sites in the United States in 2015.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Phase transformations and thermal expansion coefficients of unirradiated U-X wt.% Zr (X = 6, 10, 20, 30) measured via neutron diffraction

This work characterizes the crystallographic evolution of unirradiated U-X wt.% Zr (X = 6, 10, 20, 30) while cooling from equilibration, single phase γ-U-Zr, at 900 °C to ambient temperature using time-of-flight neutron diffraction. The β-U phase was unobserved during cooling at 1 °C/min in all alloys. All alloys followed the phase transformation pathway of γ-U-Zr→γ-U-Zr+α-U→α-U +δ-UZr2 with an observed miscibility gap in γ-U-Zr. The α-U and δ-UZr2 transformation took place simultaneously in the U-30 wt.% Zr sample. These findings strengthen the need to re-approach the U-Zr phase diagram in entirety. Bulk volumetric CTEs agree well with published data, strengthening the quantification of lattice-specific CTEs reported in this study. A compositionally dependent discontinuity in thermal expansion, increasing in magnitude with decreasing U content, occurs during the γ-U-Zr→α-U+δ-UZr2 transformation. The γ-U-Zr lattice parameter was measured to have a compositional dependency.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Aperture size distribution, length, and preferential location of bed-parallel veins in shale

Bed-parallel, calcite-filled veins (BPVs) are common in shale formations, and although they have been widely described in other studies, little is known about their population aperture size distribution. To address this knowledge gap, we analyzed BPV sizes in outcrops and cores from the Vaca Muerta Formation, Neuquén Basin, Argentina; in two cores from the Marcellus Formation, Appalachian Basin, northeast Pennsylvania; and in one core from the Wolfcamp Shale, Delaware Basin, West Texas. Nine out of ten aperture size populations follow a negative exponential distribution, with one following a weak power law. Bed-parallel vein size distribution and intensity vary among formations and within the same shale. We define three groups of distributions: (1) Vaca Muerta outcrops, with the highest BPV intensity and the largest BPVs (cumulative frequency of 4.9 BPVs per meter [BPVs/m] for apertures 0.265 mm to 8.7 cm); (2) Vaca Muerta cores with a similar BPV intensity overall but with no apertures wider than 1.2 cm; and (3) Vaca Muerta, Wolfcamp, and Marcellus cores with the fewest BPVs (cumulative frequency up to 0.63 BPVs/m) and very few wider than 1 cm. Aperture and length in two outcrop data sets are weakly positively correlated and follow power laws with exponents of 0.44 and 0.49. Mechanical interfaces at boundaries between different lithologies exert a strong control on BPV location, with 65–75% of observed interfaces having BPVs along them. Only 25–30% of the BPVs occur at observed material interfaces, however, and unless subtle, unobserved mechanical layering is present, other factors must also control location. BPV intensity and organic richness (TOC) from Vaca Muerta well logs are correlated in some instances but not in others, indicating TOC is not always a good proxy for BPV location or intensity. Furthermore, these findings provide useful information for modeling of hydraulic fracture treatments where BPVs may influence development of the stimulated fracture network, for example by limiting height growth.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Ride-hailing and taxi versus walking: Long term forecasts and implications from large-scale behavioral data

Introduction: Although ride-hailing and taxi trips can potentially reduce single-occupant vehicle trips and auto ownership, they can also replace pedestrian trips. Because physical activity is associated with improved health outcomes, the extent to which ride-hailing and taxi travel captures walking's mode share is of interest to policymakers. Methods: Based on large-scale behavioral data from the 2017 U.S. National Household Travel Survey, this paper reports on the development of a full Bayesian logistic regression model for determining the mode split between (1) ride-hailing and taxi and (2) walk while accounting for unobserved heterogeneity. The results from the stand-alone model inform two longer-term travel forecasting scenarios: a) higher risk of walk trips converting to ride-hailing and taxi, specifically in the future with high prevalence of automated vehicles, b) higher probability of such trips remaining as walking. Results: The results revealed that some of the important characteristics that increase the likelihood of a traveler using the ride-hailing and taxi mode versus walking include having a longer trip, using a smartphone to access the internet, having an interest in technologies, having a medical condition, and living in a metropolitan area with rail access. Further, the results from the first scenario suggest that an overall increase of up to 2.9% in the ride-hailing and taxi mode share may be expected. The second scenario shows that between 68% and 76% of ride-hailing and taxi trips could be diverted to walking if supportive pedestrian infrastructure were provided in the case study locations. The planning process can be adapted to consider not only congestion, crash, and emissions impacts of such shifts but also the effects of a loss of physical activity. Conclusions: The study findings show how the ride-hailing and taxi mode competes with walking. Further, the findings enable planners to update their regional travel forecasting models; policy makers can thus encourage active travel by prioritizing pedestrian infrastructure investments that may divert ride-hailing and taxi trips to walking. However, equity should be a key consideration to ensure that addressing the competition between these two modal choices does not hinder the provision of pedestrian facilities in communities that depend on walking.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Nuclear Data Sheets for A=48

Experimental nuclear structure data from various reactions and decays are compiled and evaluated for all known nuclides with mass number A=48 (S, Cl, Ar, K, Ca, Sc, Ti, V, Cr, Mn, Fe, Co, Ni). For each nuclide, detailed evaluated nuclear structure information is presented for each individual reaction and decay, and the best values combining all available data are recommended for spectroscopic properties, such as level energies, half-lives, γ-ray energies and intensities, decay radiations. No excited states have been identified in 48 S, 48 Cl, 48 Co and 48 Ni, among which the first three even have no measured ground-state half-lives and decay modes. For 48 Fe, a level scheme with a sequence of excited states was established for the first time from a recent one-neutron removal measurement by 2021Ya33. Data for excited states in 48 Ar, 48 K and 48 Mn remain limited; no decay scheme has been measured for 48 Ar and 48 K yet, while the decay scheme for 48 Ni is incomplete due to unobserved levels. 48 Ti is the most studied nuclide through various reactions and decays, followed by 48 V, 40 Ca, 48 Sc, and 48 Cr, among which no decay event to 48 Sc has been observed and the decay schemes for 48 V and 48 Cr are considered as incomplete. Furthermore, this work supersedes the previous full evaluations of A=48: 2006Bu08, 1993Bu04, 1985Al14, 1978Be01.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Field-scale dynamics of planting dates in the US Corn Belt from 2000 to 2020

Crop planting dates are a dynamic feature of agricultural systems that respond to short- and long-term climate signals, crop and cultivar selection, and technology changes. Planting date records are essential for yield gap analyses, accurate crop modeling, and tracking farmer adaptations to weather and climate change. Although planting dates have high variation at local scales due to heterogeneity in farm resources and decision-making, available long-term data on planting dates is largely restricted to aggregated regional statistics or, at best, satellite-derived datasets with limited spatiotemporal extent and at resolutions unable to distinguish individual fields (> 250 m). Here, we generated retrospective annual field-scale (30 m) planting date maps for both maize and soybeans spanning 2000-2020 across a 12 state region in the United States Corn Belt based on Landsat satellite data and a large ground sample of over 28,000 maize and soybean fields. Using training data from 2015-2020 for model selection, we found that planting date predictions improved with harmonic regression of Landsat data and additional annual weather covariates. The preferred random forests model approximately doubled performance compared to a null model based on state median planting dates, capturing 47% of field-level variation for maize (mean absolute error, MAE = 7.4 days) and 44% for soybeans (MAE = 7.5 days) against held-out ground truth test data for 2008-2014. We also evaluated the full 2000-2020 dataset with state agricultural statistics, finding strong agreement with median planting dates for maize (R 2 = 0.76, MAE = 4.4 days) and slightly lower agreement for soybeans (R 2 = 0.65, MAE = 5.4 days) when aggregated to the state level. We then used this new dataset to analyze environmental determinants of planting dates at a finer-scale than previously possible, controlling for unobserved variation at the sub-state district level. We found that during 2000-2020, each standard deviation increase in rainfall delayed planting by ~ 2.5 days, and fields with higher soil productivity ratings tended to be planted earlier. We did not find meaningful trends over the last two decades in planting dates for maize or soybeans, in contrast to trends towards earlier planting dates late last century and predicted for this period in climate adaptation studies. We hypothesize increases in early season rainfall may have inhibited these shifts towards earlier planting. Remotely sensed planting dates will be a useful tool for yield gap analyses, crop simulation modeling, and ongoing assessment of climate adaptation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Predicting battery capacity from impedance at varying temperature and state of charge using machine learning

Prediction of battery health from electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) data can enable rapid measurement of battery state in real-world applications without using additional sensors or time-consuming performance measurements. However, deconvoluting the effect of capacity, state of charge, and temperature on EIS response is complicated analytically. Here, various machine-learning models, such as linear, Gaussian process, random forest, and artificial neural network regression, are utilized to predict capacity from EIS using hundreds of capacity, direct current (DC) resistance, and EIS measurements recorded under varying conditions of health, temperature, and state of charge (SOC). Several feature extraction and selection methods from traditional electrochemical analysis and statistical modeling are explored using machine-learning pipelines. EIS data from just two frequencies can accurately predict capacity, and interrogation shows that the optimal set of frequencies is not usually intuitive. Best results are achieved with an ensemble model, which predicts battery capacity with a mean absolute error of 1.9% on data from unobserved cells.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Control of Catalyst Isomers Using an N -Phenyl-Substituted RN(CH 2 CH 2 P i Pr 2 ) 2 Pincer Ligand in CO 2 Hydrogenation and Formic Acid Dehydrogenation

A novel pincer ligand, i Pr PN Ph P [PhN- (CH 2 CH 2 P i Pr 2 ) 2 ], which is an analogue of the versatile MACHO ligand, iPr PN H P [HN(CH 2 CH 2 P i Pr 2 ) 2 ], was synthesized and characterized. The ligand was coordinated to ruthenium, and a series of hydride-containing complexes were isolated and characterized by NMR and IR spectroscopies, as well as X-ray diffraction. Comparisons to previously published analogues ligated by iPr PN H P and iPr PN Me P [CH 3 N(CH 2 CH 2 P i Pr 2 ) 2 ] illustrate that there are large changes in the coordination chemistry that occur when the nitrogen substituent of the pincer ligand is altered. For example, ruthenium hydrides supported by the iPr PN Ph P ligand always form the syn isomer (where syn/anti refer to the relative orientation of the group on nitrogen and the hydride ligand on ruthenium), whereas complexes supported by iPr PN H P form the anti isomer and complexes supported by iPr PN Me P form a mixture of syn and anti isomers. We evaluated the impact of the nitrogen substituent of the pincer ligand in catalysis by comparing a series of iPr PN R P (R = H, Me, Ph)-ligated ruthenium hydride complexes as catalysts for formic acid dehydrogenation and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) hydrogenation to formate. The iPr PN Ph P-ligated species is the most active for formic acid dehydrogenation, and mechanistic studies suggest that this is likely because there are kinetic advantages for catalysts that operate via the syn isomer. In CO 2 hydrogenation, the iPr PN Ph P-ligated species is again the most active under our optimal conditions, and we report some of the highest turnover frequencies for homogeneous catalysts. Experimental and theoretical insights into the turnover-limiting step of catalysis provide a basis for the observed trends in catalytic activity. Additionally, the stability of our complexes enabled us to detect a previously unobserved autocatalytic effect involving the base that is added to drive the reaction. Overall, by modifying the nitrogen substituent on the MACHO ligand, we have developed highly active catalysts for formic acid dehydrogenation and CO 2 hydrogenation and also provided a framework for future catalyst development.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Synthesis and Characterization of Layered Actinide (U, Np, Pu) Oxide and Hydroxide Phases

Systematic structural comparisons across the early actinides remain limited by the scarcity of well-defined transuranic layered oxide and oxyhydroxide phases. Here, we report the synthesis and single-crystal characterization of new layered actinide compounds spanning U, Np, and Pu obtained under mild hydrothermal conditions in concentrated alkali hydroxide media. These include hydrated oxides α-Cs 2 U 2 O 7 •0.5H 2 O and Rb 2 An 2 O 7 •0.5H 2 O (An = Np, Pu), oxy-hydroxides Rb 6 [(AnO 2 ) 6 O 8 (OH) 2 ]•xH 2 O x = 0, 0.5 (An = U, Np) and Rb 4 [(UO 2 ) 5 O 6 (OH) 2 ]•2H 2 O, as well as nitrate-intercalated compounds Cs 6 [(AnO 2 ) 3 O 4 (OH) 2 ](NO 3 ) 2 (An = Np, Pu). Single-crystal X-ray diffraction studies reveal extended two-dimensional architectures constructed from edge- and vertex-sharing actinyl polyhedra, with systematic evolution in equatorial coordination, hydration, and anionic sheet topology across the U–Np–Pu series. Incorporation of nitrate anions within the interlayer region of Cs 6 [(AnO 2 ) 3 O 4 (OH) 2 ](NO 3 ) 2 establishes a previously unobserved structural motif in layered transuranic oxyhydroxides, demonstrating an additional pathway for anion-mediated framework stabilization. Correlation of crystallographic metrics with single-crystal Raman spectroscopy provides new vibrational benchmarks linking differences in An═O yl bond lengths to the equatorial coordination and the interstitial cations. These findings expand the structural hierarchy of layered actinide materials and address clarifying periodic trends governing topology, bonding, and vibrational signatures in high-valent 5ƒ oxide systems.

actinides↗

Atomic-Level Features for Kinetic Monte Carlo Models of Complex Chemistry from Molecular Dynamics Simulations

The high computational cost of evaluating atomic interactions recently motivated the development of computationally inexpensive kinetic models, which can be parametrized from MD simulations of complex chemistry of thousands of species or other processes and accelerate the prediction of the chemical evolution by up to four order of magnitude. Such models go beyond the commonly employed potential energy surface fitting methods in that they are aimed purely at describing kinetic effects. So far, such kinetic models utilize molecular descriptions of reactions and have been constrained to only reproduce molecules previously observed in MD simulations. Therefore, these descriptions fail to predict the reactivity of unobserved molecules, for example in the case of large molecules or solids. In this work, we propose a new approach for the extraction of reaction mechanisms and reaction rates from MD simulations, namely the use of atomic-level features. Using the complex chemical network of hydrocarbon pyrolysis as example, it is demonstrated that kinetic models built using atomic features are able to explore chemical reaction pathways never observed in the MD simulations used to parametrize them, a critical feature to describe rare events. Atomic-level features are shown to construct reaction mechanisms and estimate reaction rates of unknown molecular species from elementary atomic events. Through comparisons of the model ability to extrapolate to longer simulation timescales and different chemical compositions than the ones used for parameterization, it is demonstrated that kinetic models employing atomic features retain the same level of accuracy and transferability as the use of features based on molecular species, while being more compact and parametrized with less data. We also find that atomic features can better describe the formation of large molecules enabling the simultaneous description of small molecules and condensed phases.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗