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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Use of Sobol’ Variance-Based Global Sensitivity Analysis and Multidimensional Legendre Polynomial Fitting for Reduced Order Modeling

Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) has developed a novel reduced order modeling approach. Prioritization of inputs is accomplished using Sobo' indices obtained through a more efficient variance-based global sensitivity analysis. To determine the Sobo' functions, simulated input values are aligned to collocation points to permit the use of Gauss-Lobatto integration, thereby reducing the number of simulation trials needed by more than an order of magnitude compared to standard Monte Carlo approaches. Furthermore, by leveraging the orthogonality of Legendre polynomials in conjunction with those same simulations at the collocation nodes, an efficient fitting method is developed to represent the Sobo' functions from which a reduced order model (ROM) is constructed. The developed method is both more efficient computationally, and the resulting ROM is more accurate. The efficacy of this technique is demonstrated on a nonlinear polynomial test function as well as the nonlinear Ishigami and Sobo' g functions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2013

Assessment of Interfraction Patient Setup for Head-and-Neck Cancer Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy Using Multiple Computed Tomography-Based Image Guidance

Purpose: Various image guidance systems are commonly used in conjunction with intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) in head-and-neck cancer irradiation. The purpose of this study was to assess interfraction patient setup variations for 3 computed tomography (CT)-based on-board image guided radiation therapy (IGRT) modalities. Methods and Materials: A total of 3302 CT scans for 117 patients, including 53 patients receiving megavoltage cone-beam CT (MVCBCT), 29 receiving kilovoltage cone-beam CT (KVCBCT), and 35 receiving megavoltage fan-beam CT (MVFBCT), were retrospectively analyzed. The daily variations in the mediolateral (ML), craniocaudal (CC), and anteroposterior (AP) dimensions were measured. The clinical target volume-to-planned target volume (CTV-to-PTV) margins were calculated using 2.5Σ + 0.7 σ, where Σ and σ were systematic and random positioning errors, respectively. Various patient characteristics for the MVCBCT group, including weight, weight loss, tumor location, and initial body mass index, were analyzed to determine their possible correlation with daily patient setup. Results: The average interfraction displacements (± standard deviation) in the ML, CC, and AP directions were 0.5 ± 1.5, −0.3 ± 2.0, and 0.3 ± 1.7 mm (KVCBCT); 0.2 ± 1.9, −0.2 ± 2.4, and 0.0 ± 1.7 mm (MVFBCT); and 0.0 ± 1.8, 0.5 ± 1.7, and 0.8 ± 3.0 mm (MVCBCT). The day-to-day random errors for KVCBCT, MVFBCT, and MVCBCT were 1.4-1.6, 1.7, and 2.0-2.1 mm. The interobserver variations were 0.8, 1.1, and 0.7 mm (MVCBCT); 0.5, 0.4, and 0.8 mm (MVFBCT); and 0.5, 0.4, and 0.6 mm (KVCBCT) in the ML, CC, and AP directions, respectively. The maximal calculated uniform CTV-to-PTV margins were 5.6, 6.9, and 8.9 mm for KVCBCT, MVFBCT, and MVCBCT, respectively. For the evaluated patient characteristics, the calculated margins for different patient parameters appeared to differ; analysis of variance (ANOVA) and/or t test analysis found no statistically significant setup difference in any direction. Conclusions: Daily random setup errors and CTV-to-PTV margins for treatment of head-and-neck cancer were affected by imaging quality. Our data indicated that larger margins were associated with MVFBCT and MVCBCT, compared with smaller margins for KVCBCT. IGRT modalities with better image quality are encouraged in clinical practice.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Experimental Analysis of the Effects of Simulator Complexity on Human Performance

Human Reliability Analysis predicts accidents caused by human errors and is an important factor in Probabilistic Safety Assessment that comprehensively evaluates the safety of nuclear power plants. This study compares and analyzes the human performance of nuclear power plant operators according to the simulator complexity as part of the HRA data collection support method development project conducted by Idaho National Laboratory. This experiment was conducted by setting two types of simulators and scenarios as independent variables. The data collected by conducting the experiments in two different simulators were analyzed using an analysis of variance test and a correlation analysis, and four human performance charts were derived.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Human Performance Analysis Depending on Operator Expertise (Student vs. Operator) and Simulator Complexity (Rancor Microworld vs. Compact Nuclear Simulator)

Human reliability analysis (HRA) evaluates human errors and provides human error probabilities (HEPs) for application in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), which is a comprehensive safety assessment method for nuclear power plants (NPPs). Generally, HRA methods estimate HEPs based on human reliability data collected from actual historical measurement, simulator experiments, or expert judgement. Most recent HRA data collection studies focus on collecting data via full-scope main control room (MCR) simulators with actual licensed reactor operators. Contrary to this, Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has adopted a different approach, which attempts to collect HRA data based on experiment using simplified simulators and student participants by following the Simplified Human Error Experimental Program (SHEEP). This approach has a couple of advantages compared to full-scope data collection. Representatively, it has relatively low entry point for collecting HRA data, and secures large sample sizes with reasonable cost and labor. In the previous studies, we developed the SHEEP framework, then verified whether the data collected through the framework could support a representative full-scope data collection study, i.e., the Human Reliability Data Extraction (HuREX) study. Also, we analyzed human performance measurements depending on participant type (i.e., student vs. operator). In this paper, we analyze human performance data collected from an experiment comparing operator expertise and simulator complexity when using the more simplified simulator developed by INL, i.e., Rancor Microworld and the less simplified simulator, i.e., Compact Nuclear Simulator (CNS) developed by Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI). Analysis of variance (ANOVA) tests and correlation analysis are used for analyzing the experimental data.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2014

WE-E-18A-10: Comparison of Patient Dose and Vessel Visibility Between Antiscatter Grid Removal and Lower Angiographic Radiation Dose Settings for Pediatric Imaging: A Preclinical Investigation

Purpose: To define an alternative to antiscatter grid (ASG) removal in angiographic systems which achieves similar patient dose reduction as ASG removal without degrading image quality during pediatric imaging. Methods: This study was approved by the local institution animal care and use committee (IACUC). Six different digital subtraction angiography settings were evaluated that altered the mAs, (100, 70, 50, 35, 25, 17.5% of reference mAs) with and without ASG. Three pigs of 5, 15, and 20 kg (9, 15, and 17 cm abdominal thickness; smaller than a newborn, average 3 yr old, and average 10 year old human abdomen respectively) were imaged using the six dose settings with and without ASG. Image quality was defined as the order of vessel branch that is visible relative to the injected vessel. Five interventional radiologists evaluated all images. Image quality and patient dose were statistically compared using analysis of variance and receiver operating curve (ROC) analysis to define the preferred dose level and use of ASG for a minimum visibility of 2nd or 3rd order branches of vessel visibility. Results: ASG grid removal reduces dose by 26% with reduced image quality. Only with the ASG present can 3rd order branches be visualized; 100% mAs is required for 9 cm pig while 70% mAs is adequate for the larger pigs. 2nd order branches can be visualized with ASG at 17.5% mAs for all three pig sizes. Without the ASG, 50%, 35% and 35% mAs is required for smallest to largest pig. Conclusion: Removing ASG reduces patient dose and image quality. Image quality can be improved with the ASG present while further reducing patient dose if an optimized radiographic technique is used. Rami Nachabe is an employee of Philips Health Care; Keith Strauss is a paid consultant of Philips Health Care.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

SU-F-J-180: A Reference Data Set for Testing Two Dimension Registration Algorithms

Purpose: To create and characterize a reference data set for testing image registration algorithms that transform portal image (PI) to digitally reconstructed radiograph (DRR). Methods: Anterior-posterior (AP) and Lateral (LAT) projection and DRR image pairs from nine cases representing four different anatomical sites (head and neck, thoracic, abdominal, and pelvis) were selected for this study. Five experts will perform manual registration by placing landmarks points (LMPs) on the DRR and finding their corresponding points on the PI using computer assisted manual point selection tool (CAMPST), a custom-made MATLAB software tool developed in house. The landmark selection process will be repeated on both the PI and the DRR in order to characterize inter- and -intra observer variations associated with the point selection process. Inter and an intra observer variation in LMPs was done using Bland-Altman (B&A) analysis and one-way analysis of variance. We set our limit such that the absolute value of the mean difference between the readings should not exceed 3mm. Later on in this project we will test different two dimension (2D) image registration algorithms and quantify the uncertainty associated with their registration. Results: Using one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) there was no variations within the readers. When Bland-Altman analysis was used the variation within the readers was acceptable. The variation was higher in the PI compared to the DRR.ConclusionThe variation seen for the PI is because although the PI has a much better spatial resolution the poor resolution on the DRR makes it difficult to locate the actual corresponding anatomical feature on the PI. We hope this becomes more evident when all the readers complete the point selection. The reason for quantifying inter- and -intra observer variation tells us to what degree of accuracy a manual registration can be done. Research supported by William Beaumont Hospital Research Start Up Fund.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

On approaches to analyze the sensitivity of simulated hydrologic fluxes to model parameters in the community land model

Here, effective sensitivity analysis approaches are needed to identify important parameters or factors and their uncertainties in complex Earth system models composed of multi-phase multi-component phenomena and multiple biogeophysical-biogeochemical processes. In this study, the impacts of 10 hydrologic parameters in the Community Land Model on simulations of runoff and latent heat flux are evaluated using data from a watershed. Different metrics, including residual statistics, the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient, and log mean square error, are used as alternative measures of the deviations between the simulated and field observed values. Four sensitivity analysis (SA) approaches, including analysis of variance based on the generalized linear model, generalized cross validation based on the multivariate adaptive regression splines model, standardized regression coefficients based on a linear regression model, and analysis of variance based on support vector machine, are investigated. Results suggest that these approaches show consistent measurement of the impacts of major hydrologic parameters on response variables, but with differences in the relative contributions, particularly for the secondary parameters. The convergence behaviors of the SA with respect to the number of sampling points are also examined with different combinations of input parameter sets and output response variables and their alternative metrics. This study helps identify the optimal SA approach, provides guidance for the calibration of the Community Land Model parameters to improve the model simulations of land surface fluxes, and approximates the magnitudes to be adjusted in the parameter values during parametric model optimization.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Design of low surface roughness-low residual stress-high optoelectronic merit a-IZO thin films for flexible OLEDs

The development of efficient and reliable large-area flexible optoelectronic devices demands low surface roughness-low residual stress-high optoelectronic merit transparent conducting oxide (TCO) thin films. Here, we correlate surface roughness-residual stress-optoelectronic properties of sputtered amorphous indium zinc oxide (a-IZO) thin films using a statistical design of experiment (DOE) approach and find a common growth space to achieve a smooth surface in a stress-free and high optoelectronic merit a-IZO thin film. The sputtering power, growth pressure, oxygen partial pressure, and RF/(RF+DC) are varied in a two-level system with a full factorial design, and results are used to deconvolve the complex growth space, identifying significant control growth parameters and their possible interactions. The surface roughness of a-IZO thin film varies over 0.19 nm to 3.97 nm, which is not in line with the general assumption of low surface roughness in a-IZO thin films. The initial regression model and analysis of variance reveal no single optimum growth sub-space to achieve low surface roughness (≤0.5 nm), low residual stress (−1 to 0 GPa), and industrially acceptable electrical conductivity (>1000 S/cm) for a-IZO thin films. The extrapolation of growth parameters in light of the current results and previous knowledge leads to a new sub-space, resulting in a low residual stress of −0.52±0.04 GPa, a low surface roughness of 0.55±0.03 nm, and moderate electrical conductivity of 1962±3.84 S/cm in a-IZO thin films. These results demonstrate the utility of the DOE approach to multi-parameter optimization, which provides an important tool for the development of flexible TCOs for the next-generation flexible organic light emitting diodes applications.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2015

A surface layer variance heat budget for ENSO

Abstract Characteristics of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), such as frequency, propagation, spatial extent, and amplitude, strongly depend on the climatological background state of the tropical Pacific. Multidecadal changes in the ocean mean state are hence likely to modulate ENSO properties. To better link background state variations with low‐frequency amplitude changes of ENSO, we develop a diagnostic framework that determines locally the contributions of different physical feedback terms on the ocean surface temperature variance. Our analysis shows that multidecadal changes of ENSO variance originate from the delicate balance between the background‐state‐dependent positive thermocline feedback and the atmospheric damping of sea surface temperatures anomalies. The role of higher‐order processes and atmospheric and oceanic nonlinearities is also discussed. The diagnostic tool developed here can be easily applied to other tropical ocean areas and climate phenomena.

Boucharel, Julien↗
DOE OSTI2013

Uncertainty quantification for evaluating impacts of caprock and reservoir properties on pressure buildup and ground surface displacement during geological CO2 sequestration

A series of numerical test cases reflecting broad and realistic ranges of geological formation properties was developed to systematically evaluate and compare the impacts of those properties on geomechanical responses to CO2 injection. A coupled hydro-geomechanical subsurface transport simulator, STOMP (Subsurface Transport over Multiple Phases), was adopted to simulate the CO2 migration process and geomechanical behaviors of the surrounding geological formations. A quasi-Monte Carlo sampling method was applied to efficiently sample a high-dimensional parameter space consisting of injection rate and 14 subsurface formation properties, including porosity, permeability, entry pressure, irreducible gas and aqueous saturation, Young’s modulus, and Poisson’s ratio for both reservoir and caprock. Generalized cross-validation and analysis of variance methods were used to quantitatively measure the significance of the 15 input parameters. Reservoir porosity, permeability, and injection rate were found to be among the most significant factors affecting the geomechanical responses to the CO2 injection. We used a quadrature generalized linear model to build a reduced-order model that can estimate the geomechanical response instantly instead of running computationally expensive numerical simulations.

CO2 geological sequestration↗
DOE OSTI2026

Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 2000–2300 and beyond: model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using MPAS-Albany Land Ice

We present a description of the Antarctic Ice Sheet model configuration submitted to the ISMIP6-Antarctica-2300 experiment using the MPAS-Albany Land Ice model, along with three new sets of simulations: (1) a set of extended simulations to 2500 for three forced experiments and to 2775 for the control experiment; (2) a sensitivity analysis of our model configuration to parameters controlling basal sliding and sub-shelf melt, and to model structural choices including the choice of the energy and stress balances; and (3) a 72-member ensemble run on graphics processing units (GPUs) and analysis of variance to determine the primary sources of uncertainty in our ice-sheet model projections. Our extended simulations predict rapid retreat beginning after 2300 for SSP1-2.6 forcing and after 2500 for present-day (control) forcing, primarily in the Amundsen Sea Embayment. We find that varying the sub-shelf melt parameter between the 5th to 95th percentile values for a mean-Antarctic calibration target results in an up to ∼ ± 40 % change in sea-level contribution relative to our baseline simulations that used the median value. Using a linear basal sliding law reduces sea-level contribution by 51 %–73 % relative to our baseline nonlinear sliding law with an exponent of 1/5. When using basal sliding law exponents of 1/3 and 1/10, the overall difference from our baseline simulations at 2300 is on the order of 10 %. The Amundsen Sea Embayment region displays a strongly non-linear dependence of mass loss on the sliding law exponent, with no discernible relationship between the sliding law exponent and the mass loss by 2300, while the sectors feeding the Ross and Filchner-Ronne ice shelves exhibit more mass loss with a more-plastic sliding law. Our model fidelity sensitivity experiments reveal a 9 %–31 % increase in sea-level contribution when using a depth-integrated stress balance approximation relative to our three-dimensional solver, while using a fixed-in-time temperature field increases sea-level contribution by 14 %–88 % relative to two thermomechanically coupled configurations. Our 72-member ensemble and analysis of variance show that the uncertainty in long-term projections is dominated by the choice of Earth system model forcing and the presence or absence of hydrofracture forcing, rather than uncertainty in sliding and sub-shelf melt parameters.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

An adaptive ANOVA-based PCKF for high-dimensional nonlinear inverse modeling

The probabilistic collocation-based Kalman filter (PCKF) is a recently developed approach for solving inverse problems. It resembles the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) in every aspect—except that it represents and propagates model uncertainty by polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) instead of an ensemble of model realizations. Previous studies have shown PCKF is a more efficient alternative to EnKF for many data assimilation problems. However, the accuracy and efficiency of PCKF depends on an appropriate truncation of the PCE series. Having more polynomial chaos basis functions in the expansion helps to capture uncertainty more accurately but increases computational cost. Selection of basis functions is particularly important for high-dimensional stochastic problems because the number of polynomial chaos basis functions required to represent model uncertainty grows dramatically as the number of input parameters (random dimensions) increases. In classic PCKF algorithms, the PCE basis functions are pre-set based on users' experience. Also, for sequential data assimilation problems, the basis functions kept in PCE expression remain unchanged in different Kalman filter loops, which could limit the accuracy and computational efficiency of classic PCKF algorithms. To address this issue, we present a new algorithm that adaptively selects PCE basis functions for different problems and automatically adjusts the number of basis functions in different Kalman filter loops. The algorithm is based on adaptive functional ANOVA (analysis of variance) decomposition, which approximates a high-dimensional function with the summation of a set of low-dimensional functions. Thus, instead of expanding the original model into PCE, we implement the PCE expansion on these low-dimensional functions, which is much less costly. We also propose a new adaptive criterion for ANOVA that is more suited for solving inverse problems. The new algorithm was tested with different examples and demonstrated great effectiveness in comparison with non-adaptive PCKF and EnKF algorithms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2014

Parameters’ Covariance in Neutron Time of Flight Analysis – Explicit Formulae

We present here a method that estimates the parameters’ variance in a parametric model for neutron time of flight (NToF). The analytical formulae for parameter variances, obtained independently of calculation of parameter values from measured data, express the variances in terms of the choice, settings, and placement of the detector and the oscilloscope. Consequently, the method can serve as a tool in planning a measurement setup.

fusion↗
DOE OSTI2016

Variance components in confocal scanning laser tomography measurements of neuro‐retinal rim area and the effect of repeated measurements on the power to detect loss over time

Abstract Purpose To estimate the variation in measurements of neuro‐retinal rim area (NRA) determined by confocal scanning laser tomography and consequences for clinical follow‐up. Methods Altogether, 24 healthy subjects were randomized on –320 μ m, Moorfields and Standard NRA plane strategies. Additionally, NRA was measured in 32 glaucoma subjects. Variance components for subjects, visits and measurements were estimated with analysis of variance. Sample sizes required to detect a 6.0 × 10 −2 mm 2 NRA change were estimated assuming a significance level of 0.05 and a power of 0.8. Consequences for independent group, and paired comparison design, respectively, were analysed. Further, precision in estimates within subjects over time was investigated. Results The variation of NRA among subjects was considerably larger than the variation among visits and measurements. For glaucoma subjects, the variation among visits and measurements were of the same order but larger than in healthy subjects. It was found that independent group comparisons require inconveniently large sample sizes. Within‐subject paired comparisons over time require sample sizes of below 15 subjects. The estimated variations for glaucoma subjects imply that 54 months of follow‐up is required for detection of change from baseline. Conclusions The variance for subjects is substantial in relation to those for visits and measurements. Cross‐sectional independent group comparisons of levels of NRA are unsuitable, due to considerable subject variation. Levels of NRA differences within subjects between visits can be estimated with acceptable precision. Neuro‐retinal rim area (NRA) measurement can be used for long‐term follow‐up of glaucoma progression.

Sandberg Melin, Camilla↗
DOE OSTI2024

Elliptically-Contoured Tensor-variate Distributions with Application to Image Learning

Statistical analysis of tensor-valued data has largely used the tensor-variate normal (TVN) distribution that may be inadequate for data arising from distributions with heavier or lighter tails. We study a general family of elliptically contoured (EC) TV distributions and derive its characterizations, moments, marginal, and conditional distributions. We describe procedures for maximum likelihood estimation from data that are (1) uncorrelated draws from an EC distribution, (2) from a scale mixture of the TVN distribution, and (3) from an underlying but unknown EC distribution, for which we extend Tyler’s robust estimator. A detailed simulation study highlights the benefits of choosing an EC distribution over the TVN for heavier-tailed data. We develop TV classification rules using discriminant analysis and EC errors and show that they better predict cats and dogs from images in the Animal Faces-HQ dataset than the TVN-based rules. A novel tensor-on-tensor regression and TV analysis of variance (TANOVA) framework under EC errors is also demonstrated to better characterize gender, age, and ethnic origin than the usual TVN-based TANOVA in the celebrated labeled faces of the wild dataset.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Unbalanced Nested Random Effects Estimation of Variance Components

To investigate the contributing factors of variance in the measurement of an iodine 127 (127I) sample, we implement a nested random effects analysis of variance (ANOVA). Historically, the reported uncertainty on a measurement of 127I has been obtained by methods of forward uncertainty propagation because there is typically only one replicate of a given sample for which to estimate the uncertainty. When samples are processed there are several types of quality control (QC) standards analyzed along-side the unknown samples with two to five replicates for each. Assuming the variance observed in these replicate QC standards is representative of that of the unknown samples, we use these data in a nested random effects ANOVA to estimate the total uncertainty of a measurement. We demonstrate this approach with two sets of measurements from Idaho National Laboratory and compare the results with the forward uncertainty propagation approach. Variance component estimates for the coarsest level of the nesting structure were most imprecise because replicates were most limited at these levels. We find that the results largely agree between forward propagation and ANOVA, and the greatest contributors of variance are due to instrument variation and chemical processing, with human processing being among the smallest contributors. This analysis provides reassurance that the reported uncertainties using forward propagation are reasonable and the process is well controlled. We propose a future designed experiment to increase replicates at the coarsest level of the hierarchy to improve estimates of these variance components.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗