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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Multilevel Monte Carlo Predictions of First Passage Times in Three-Dimensional Discrete Fracture Networks: A Graph-Based Approach

In this paper, we present a method combining multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) and a graph-based primary subnetwork identification algorithm to provide estimates of the mean and variance of the distribution of first passage times in fracture media at significantly lower computational cost than standard Monte Carlo (MC) methods. Simulations of solute transport are performed using a discrete fracture network (DFN), and instead of using various grid resolutions for levels in the MLMC, which is standard practice in MLMC, we identify a hierarchy of subnetworks in the DFN based on the shortest topological paths through the network using a graph-based method. While the mean of these ensembles is of critical importance, the variance is also essential in fractured media where uncertainty is an overarching theme, and understanding variability across an ensemble is a requirement for safety assessments. The method provides good estimates of the mean and variance at two orders of magnitude lower computational cost than MC.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Statistical moments of VIIRS night-time lights

Annual VIIRS global night-time lights traditionally report mean radiance levels after filtering to remove moonlit and cloudy data followed by outlier removal. The mean is the first statistical moment, but there are three other statistical moments (variance, skew and kurtosis) that are currently not produced globally. In this study, we generated VIIRS day/night band multiyear and annual statistical moments for a widely dispersed set of test areas. The moments were calculated from 15 arc second nightly temporal profiles spanning 2012-2020, filtered to exclude cloudy and sunlit data, with radiance adjustments to reduce view angle and lunar illuminance effects. The moment data were examined in two ways: (1) Geospatial grids-which reveal zonation and temporal changes present in urban areas and (2) Scattergrams of moment pairs. The variance versus mean scattergram exhibits several distinct data clusters used to define five zones: core lighting, dark-erratics, mid-erratics, bright-erratics and bright and seteady. The results indicate that the information content of VIIRS night-time lights can be augmented if all four statistical moments are calculated.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Future of the MUSiC Experiment Data

The Measurements of Uranium Subcritical and Critical (MUSiC) experiment was a highly enriched uranium (HEU) experiment performed at the National Criticality Experiments Research Center (NCERC) executed between December 2020 and April 2021. The experiment intended to measure criticality and reactor kinetics parameters in a bare HEU system. The experiment concurrently measured radiation signatures from the system while utilizing different neutron source types. This was an attempt to benchmark both detectors and analysis techniques against one another for identical measurements. The experiment consisted of the Rocky Flats HEU hemi-shells constructed into ten configurations spanning between deeply subcritical (about 14 kgs) to supercritical (about 60 kgs). Two of the ten configurations were supercritical and the other eight were subcritical. The two supercritical configurations, often referred to as the critical configurations, were documented into an International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) benchmark evaluation and submitted to the technical review group (TRG). The subcritical configurations of the MUSiC experiment were examined using three different detection systems. The systems include: the NoMAD He-3 neutron detector which consists of 15 He-3 tubes surrounded by a polyethylene matrix, a liquid scintillator system called the Rossi-α Measurement Rapid Organic Discriminating Detector (RAM-RODD), and a trans-stilbene organic scintillator array (OSCAR) provided by the University of Michigan. The NoMAD and RAM-RODD data are planned to be evaluated in two separate ICSBEP evaluations utilizing neutron noise methods such as Feynman Variance-to-Mean, Rossi-α and the pulsed neutron source method. Each of the subcritical configurations were examined using three different source types including: a Cf-252 source in the center, with only the intrinsic neutron source in the HEU, and with an external D-T neutron generator.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Accurate Simulation of Both Sensitivity and Variability for Amazonian Photosynthesis: Is It Too Much to Ask?

Abstract Estimates of Amazon rainforest gross primary productivity (GPP) differ by a factor of 2 across a suite of three statistical and 18 process models. This wide spread contributes uncertainty to predictions of future climate. We compare the mean and variance of GPP from these models to that of GPP at six eddy covariance (EC) towers. Only one model's mean GPP across all sites falls within a 99% confidence interval for EC GPP, and only one model matches EC variance. The strength of model response to climate drivers is related to model ability to match the seasonal pattern of the EC GPP. Models with stronger seasonal swings in GPP have stronger responses to rain, light, and temperature than does EC GPP. The model to data comparison illustrates a trade‐off inherent to deterministic models between accurate simulation of a mean (average) and accurate responsiveness to drivers. The trade‐off exists because all deterministic models simplify processes and lack at least some consequential driver or interaction. If a model's sensitivities to included drivers and their interactions are accurate, then deterministically predicted outcomes have less variability than is realistic. If a GPP model has stronger responses to climate drivers than found in data, model predictions may match the observed variance and seasonal pattern but are likely to overpredict GPP response to climate change. High or realistic variability of model estimates relative to reference data indicate that the model is hypersensitive to one or more drivers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Analysis of the MUSIC 3 He Multiplicity Data

A measurement campaign called the Measurement of Uranium Subcritical and Critical (MUSiC) was performed on a range of configurations of highly-enriched uranium (HEU) from December 2020 through April of 2021. While part of the focus was to measure reactor kinetics parameters on delayed supercritical systems, an additional focus was performing neutron noise measurements on subcritical configurations from deeply subcritical to nearly delayed critical. Multiple detector systems were used to perform these measurements, such as a 3 He multiplicity detector called the Neutron Multiplicity Array Detector (NoMAD) and a liquid scintillator system called the Rossi-α Measurement Rapid Organic Discriminating Detector (RAM-RODD). Also included were a scintillator system from the University of Michigan and a set of small 3He tubes that have previously been used to measure Rossi-α values on near-critical systems. The focus of this paper will be a comparison of prospective analysis methods for the NoMAD measurements. Previous subcritical measurements at the National Criticality Experiments Research Center (NCERC) submitted to the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) used the Hage-Cifarelli formalism of the Feynman Variance-to-Mean method. This relies on the time correlations of neutron detections to infer the spontaneous fission rate and neutron multiplication of a system through binning the time tagged detections and analyzing resulting histograms of the numbers of counts. However, there are other neutron noise methods that rely on similar processes, such as the Hansen-Dowdy formalism which uses a slightly different methodology to extract multiplication from the neutron multiplicity counting moments. Comparisons can be made between these experimental results and those obtained through simulations to validate or identify deficiencies in analysis, detection methods, or the underlying nuclear data. Different time gating strategies and their effects on count rate uncertainties are also investigated.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Online Control of Process Variance Using Feedback

For many stochastic control problem formulations, design objectives typically include constraining the covariance of the outputs of the system. Recent engineering challenges have demonstrated an interest in controlling system output covariances to a setpoint. However, open-loop control of system output covariance can be exceptionally challenging when the system has significant plant uncertainties. This paper explores closed-loop control of the system’s output covariance using a windowed variance function. The stochastic nature of the windowed variance feedback means that root locus and other classical control design techniques cannot be immediately used. Expected value analysis is used to generate transfer functions for the average response of such systems, and the results are used to design controllers. Stochastic simulations are presented to verify the analytical results and make other observations concerning closed-loop variance control.

Bieniek, Mitchell↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of Two-Dimensional to One-Dimensional Site Response for Idaho National Laboratory

We perform two-dimensional (2D) site response analyses accounting for spatial variability of soil properties and subsurface geometry of the Eastern Snake River Plane (ESRP), and quantify their effects on ground surface motion relative to one-dimensional (1D) site response analyses at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). We first present the development of random field idealizations of the repeated basalt lava flows, heterogeneously inter-layered with sediments, from seismic velocity data collected over four decades in the ESRP. Using realizations of the stochastic fields mapped on 2D deterministic finite element models, we perform 2D viscoelastic and equivalent-linear wave propagation simulations, and quantify the mean and variance of site response aggravation factors, defined as the response spectral ratio of 2D to 1D analyses on the ground surface. Results are shown to be insensitive to the constitutive material behavior considered here, for strains induced by rock outcrop peak ground acceleration (PGA) as high as 0.7g: viscoelastic and equivalent-linear analyses predict peak mean 2D/1D aggravation factor 1.05 at period T=0.075 sec (i.e. the 2D response spectrum is 5% higher than the corresponding 1D at that period, on average), which corresponds to the wavelength of the horizontal correlation length of the random field (50m). For periods longer than the fundamental period of the site (here, T 1 =0.3125 sec), the propagating wavelengths are too long to be affected by the 1D site response and the aggravation factor becomes equal to 1. The standard deviation of the natural logarithms of the 2D/1D aggravation factors is ~0.15 for periods shorter than the fundamental period of the site, and decays thereafter at a steady rate.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Optimization under uncertainty of a hybrid waste tire and natural gas feedstock flexible polygeneration system using a decomposition algorithm

Market uncertainties motivate the development of flexible polygeneration systems that are able to adjust operating conditions to favor production of the most profitable product portfolio. However, this operational flexibility comes at the cost of higher capital expenditure. A scenario-based two-stage stochastic nonconvex Mixed-Integer Nonlinear Programming (MINLP) approach lends itself naturally to optimizing these trade-offs. This work studies the optimal design and operation under uncertainty of a hybrid feedstock flexible polygeneration system producing electricity, methanol, dimethyl ether, olefins or liquefied (synthetic) natural gas. A recently developed C++ based software framework (named GOSSIP) is used for modeling the optimization problem as well as its efficient solution using the Nonconvex Generalized Benders Decomposition (NGBD) algorithm. Two different cases are studied: The first uses estimates of the means and variances of the uncertain parameters from historical data, whereas the second assesses the impact of increased uncertain parameter volatility. The value of implementing flexible designs characterized by the value of the stochastic solution (VSS) is in the range of 260–405 M$ for a scale of approximately 893 MW of thermal input. Increased price volatility around the same mean results in higher expected net present value and VSS as operational flexibility allows for asymmetric exploitation of price peaks.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

An evaluation of multi-fidelity methods for quantifying uncertainty in projections of ice-sheet mass change

Abstract. This study investigated the computational benefits of using multi-fidelity statistical estimation (MFSE) algorithms to quantify uncertainty in the mass change of Humboldt Glacier, Greenland, between 2007 and 2100 using a single climate change scenario. The goal of this study was to determine whether MFSE can use multiple models of varying cost and accuracy to reduce the computational cost of estimating the mean and variance of the projected mass change of a glacier. The problem size and complexity were chosen to reflect the challenges posed by future continental-scale studies while still facilitating a computationally feasible investigation of MFSE methods. When quantifying uncertainty introduced by a high-dimensional parameterization of the basal friction field, MFSE was able to reduce the mean-squared error in the estimates of the statistics by well over an order of magnitude when compared to a single-fidelity approach that only used the highest-fidelity model. This significant reduction in computational cost was achieved despite the low-fidelity models used being incapable of capturing the local features of the ice-flow fields predicted by the high-fidelity model. The MFSE algorithms were able to effectively leverage the high correlation between each model's predictions of mass change, which all responded similarly to perturbations in the model inputs. Consequently, our results suggest that MFSE could be highly useful for reducing the cost of computing continental-scale probabilistic projections of sea-level rise due to ice-sheet mass change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Droplet Growth or Evaporation Does Not Buffer the Variability in Supersaturation in Clean Clouds

Abstract Water vapor supersaturation in clouds is a random variable that drives activation and growth of cloud droplets. The Pi Convection–Cloud Chamber generates a turbulent cloud with a microphysical steady state that can be varied from clean to polluted by adjusting the aerosol injection rate. The supersaturation distribution and its moments, e.g., mean and variance, are investigated for varying cloud microphysical conditions. High-speed and collocated Eulerian measurements of temperature and water vapor concentration are combined to obtain the temporally resolved supersaturation distribution. This allows quantification of the contributions of variances and covariances between water vapor and temperature. Results are consistent with expectations for a convection chamber, with strong correlation between water vapor and temperature; departures from ideal behavior can be explained as resulting from dry regions on the warm boundary, analogous to entrainment. The saturation ratio distribution is measured under conditions that show monotonic increase of liquid water content and decrease of mean droplet diameter with increasing aerosol injection rate. The change in liquid water content is proportional to the change in water vapor concentration between no-cloud and cloudy conditions. Variability in the supersaturation remains even after cloud droplets are formed, and no significant buffering is observed. Results are interpreted in terms of a cloud microphysical Damköhler number (Da), under conditions corresponding to , i.e., the slow-microphysics regime. This implies that clouds with very clean regions, such that is satisfied, will experience supersaturation fluctuations without them being buffered by cloud droplet growth. Significance Statement The saturation ratio (humidity) in clouds controls the growth rate and formation of cloud droplets. When air in a turbulent cloud mixes, the humidity varies in space and time throughout the cloud. This is important because it means cloud droplets experience different growth histories, thereby resulting in broader size distributions. It is often assumed that growth and evaporation of cloud droplets buffers out some of the humidity variations. Measuring these variations has been difficult, especially in the field. The purpose of this study is to measure the saturation ratio distribution in clouds with a range of conditions. We measure the in-cloud saturation ratio using a convection cloud chamber with clean to polluted cloud properties. We found in clouds with low concentrations of droplets that the variations in the saturation ratio are not suppressed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Subgrid-scale horizontal and vertical variation of cloud water in stratocumulus clouds: a case study based on LES and comparisons with in situ observations

Abstract. Stratocumulus clouds in the marine boundary layer cover a large fraction of ocean surface and play an important role in the radiative energy balance of the Earth system. Simulating these clouds in Earth system models (ESMs) has proven to be extremely challenging, in part because cloud microphysical processes such as the autoconversion of cloud water into precipitation occur at scales much smaller than typical ESM grid sizes. An accurate autoconversion parameterization needs to account for not only the local microphysical process (e.g., the dependence on cloud water content qc and cloud droplet number concentration Nc) but also the subgrid-scale variability of the cloud properties that determine the process rate. Accounting for subgrid-scale variability is often achieved by the introduction of a so-called enhancement factor E. Previous studies of E for autoconversion have focused more on its dependence on cloud regime and ESM grid size, but they have largely overlooked the vertical dependence of E within the cloud. In this study, we use a large-eddy simulation (LES) model, initialized and constrained with in situ and surface-based measurements from a recent airborne field campaign, to characterize the vertical dependence of the horizontal variation of qc in stratocumulus clouds and the implications for E. Similar to our recent observational study (Zhang et al., 2021), we found that the inverse relative variance of qc, an index of horizontal homogeneity, generally increases from cloud base upward through the lower two-thirds of the cloud and then decreases in the uppermost one-third of the cloud. As a result, E decreases from cloud base upward and then increases towards the cloud top. We apply a decomposition analysis to the LES cloud water field to understand the relative roles of the mean and variances of qc in determining the vertical dependence of E. Our analysis reveals that the vertical dependence of the horizontal qc variability and enhancement factor E is a combined result of condensational growth throughout the lower portion of the cloud and entrainment mixing at cloud top. The findings of this study indicate that a vertically dependent E should be used in ESM autoconversion parameterizations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantification of Physical and Numerical Mixing in a Coastal Ocean Model Using Salinity Variance Budgets

Numerical mixing, the spurious mixing primarily generated by the discretization of advection, is often significant in estuarine and coastal models due to sharp, energetic fronts. In this study, we compare on- and offline estimates of numerical mixing in a submesoscale-resolving realistic simulation of the ocean state over the Texas-Louisiana continental shelf. While offline estimates of numerical mixing differ from online estimates, offline methods may be the only analysis available. This study offers insight into the differences between the on- and offline methods. We use two methods to estimate numerical mixing offline, based on salinity squared $s^2$ and volume-mean salinity variance $s^{\prime^2}$. Numerical mixing estimated from the $s^{\prime^2}$ budget is generally within 60\% of the magnitude for the online method but captures the temporal variability well. However, the $s^2$ budget compares poorly due to larger truncation errors associated with the tendency and advection terms, which can be reduced by increasing the model output frequency. We also investigate the effects of horizontal resolution on numerical mixing using a two-way nested grid. The volume-integrated numerical mixing constitutes 57\% of the bulk physical mixing -- the mixing prescribed by the turbulence closure scheme -- in the coarse model and may exceed the physical mixing by half an order of magnitude. We find that numerical mixing is reduced by 35\% on average in the nested model, less than expected based on scaling of the numerical mixing for an upwind advection scheme, likely due to new dynamical processes that emerge in the nested simulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Net-proton number fluctuations in the presence of the QCD critical point

Event-by-event fluctuations of the net-proton number studied in heavy-ion collisions provide an important means in the search for the conjectured critical end point (CP) in the QCD phase diagram. We propose a phenomenological model in which the fluctuations of the chiral critical mode couple to protons and anti-protons. This allows us to study the behavior of the net-proton number fluctuations in the presence of the CP. Calculating the net-proton number cumulants, Cn with n=1,2,3,4, along the phenomenological freeze-out line we show that the ratio of variance and mean C2/C1, as well as kurtosis C4/C2 resemble qualitative properties observed in data in heavy-ion collisions as a function of beam energy obtained by the STAR Collaboration at RHIC. In particular, the non-monotonic structure of the kurtosis and smooth change of the C2/C1 ratio with beam energy could be due to the CP located near the freeze-out line. The skewness, however, exhibits properties that are in contrast to the criticality expected due to the CP. The dependence of our results on the model parameters and the proximity of the chemical freeze-out to the critical point are also discussed.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Neural Network-Based Electric Vehicle Range Prediction for Smart Charging Optimization

Range prediction is a standard feature in most modern road vehicles, allowing drivers to make informed decisions about when to refuel. Most vehicles make range predictions through data- or model-driven means, monitoring the average fuel consumption rate or using a tuned vehicle model to predict fuel consumption. The uncertainty of future driving conditions makes the range prediction problem challenging, particularly for less pervasive battery electric vehicles (BEV). Most contemporary machine learning-based methods attempt to forecast the battery SOC discharge profile to predict vehicle range. In this work, we propose a novel approach using two recurrent neural networks (RNNs) to predict the remaining range of BEVs and the minimum charge required to safely complete a trip. Each RNN has two outputs that can be used for statistical analysis to account for uncertainties; the first loss function leads to mean and variance estimation (MVE), while the second results in bounded interval estimation (BIE). These outputs of the proposed RNNs are then used to predict the probability of a vehicle completing a given trip without charging, or if charging is needed, the remaining range and minimum charging required to finish the trip with high probability. Training data was generated using a low-order physics model to estimate vehicle energy consumption from historical drive cycle data collected from medium-duty last-mile delivery vehicles. Here, the proposed method demonstrated high accuracy in the presence of day-to-day route variability, with the root-mean-square error (RMSE) below 6% for both RNN models.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Determination of Chemical Freeze-Out Parameters from Net-Kaon Fluctuations at RHIC

We calculate the mean-over-variance ratio of the net-kaon fluctuations in the Hadron Resonance Gas (HRG) Model for the five highest energies of the RHIC Beam Energy Scan (BES) for different particle data lists. We compare these results with the latest experimental data from the STAR collaboration in order to extract sets of chemical freeze-out parameters for each list. We focused on the PDG2012 and PDG2016+ particle lists, which differ largely in the number of resonant states. Furthermore, our analysis determines the effect of the amount of resonances included in the HRG on the freeze-out conditions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Distributionally robust facility location problem under decision-dependent stochastic demand

While the traditional facility location problem considers exogenous demand, in some applications, locations of facilities could affect the willingness of customers to use certain types of services, e.g., carsharing, and therefore they also affect realizations of random demand. Moreover, a decision maker may not know the exact distribution of such endogenous demand and how it is affected by location choices. In this paper, we consider a distributionally robust facility location problem, in which we interpret the moments of stochastic demand as functions of facility-location decisions. We reformulate a two-stage decision-dependent distributionally robust optimization model as a monolithic formulation, and then derive exact mixed-integer linear programming reformulation as well as valid inequalities when the means and variances of demand are piecewise linear functions of location solutions. We conduct extensive computational studies, in which we compare our model with a decision-dependent deterministic model, as well as stochastic programming and distributionally robust models without the decision-dependent assumption. Here, the results show superior performance of our approach with remarkable improvement in profit and quality of service under various settings, in addition to computational speed-ups given by formulation enhancements. These results draw attention to the need of considering the impact of location decisions on customer demand within this strategic-level planning problem.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Mesh objective stochastic simulations of quasibrittle fracture

Continuum finite element (FE) modeling of damage and failure of quasibrittle structures suffers from the spurious mesh sensitivity due to strain localization. Here this issue has been addressed for deterministic analysis through the development of localization limiters. Here this study proposes a mechanism-based model to mitigate the mesh sensitivity in stochastic FE simulations of quasibrittle fracture. The interest is placed on the analysis of large-size structures, where the mesh size is conveniently chosen to be larger than the width of the fracture process zone as well as the correlation length of the random fields of constitutive properties. The present model is formulated within the framework of continuum damage mechanics. Two localization parameters are introduced to describe the evolution of the damage pattern of each finite element. These parameters are used to guide the energy regularization of the constitutive law, as well as to formulate the mesh-dependent probability distributions of constitutive properties. Depending on the prevailing damage pattern, different energy regularization schemes and mesh dependence of the probability distribution functions are used in the constitutive law. The model is applied to simulate the stochastic failure behavior of quasibrittle structures of different geometries featuring different failure processes including damage initiation, localization, and propagation. It is shown that using fixed probability distribution functions of constitutive properties could lead to strong mesh dependence of the prediction of the mean and variance of the structural load capacity. The probability distribution functions of constitutive properties must be linked to the damage pattern, which may evolve during the failure process. Such a mechanism-based modeling of the probability distributions of constitutive properties is essential for mitigating the spurious mesh sensitivity in stochastic FE analysis of quasibrittle fracture.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Chemical freeze-out parameters of net-kaons in heavy-ion collisions

In this work, we study chemical freeze-out parameters for heavy-ion collisions by performing two different thermal analyses. We analyze results from thermal fits for particle yields, as well as, net-charge fluctuations in order to characterize the chemical freeze-out. The Hadron Resonance Gas (HRG) model is employed for both methods. By separating the light hadrons from the strange hadrons in thermal fits, we study the proposed flavor hierarchy. For the net-charge fluctuations, we calculate the mean-over-variance ratio of the net-kaon fluctuations in the HRG model at the five highest energies of the RHIC Beam Energy Scan (BES) for different particle data lists. We compare these results with recent experimental data from the STAR collaboration in order to extract sets of chemical freeze-out parameters for each list. We focused on particle lists which differ largely in the number of resonant states. By doing so, our analysis determines the effect of the amount of resonances included in the HRG model on the freeze-out conditions. Our findings have potential impact on various other models in the field of relativistic heavy ion collisions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗