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Explaining and predicting human behavior and social dynamics in simulated virtual worlds: reproducibility, generalizability, and robustness of causal discovery methods
Ground Truth program was designed to evaluate social science modeling approaches using simulation test beds with ground truth intentionally and systematically embedded to understand and model complex Human Domain systems and their dynamics Lazer et al. (Science 369:1060–1062, 2020). Our multidisciplinary team of data scientists, statisticians, experts in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and visual analytics had a unique role on the program to investigate accuracy, reproducibility, generalizability, and robustness of the state-of-the-art (SOTA) causal structure learning approaches applied to fully observed and sampled simulated data across virtual worlds. In addition, we analyzed the feasibility of using machine learning models to predict future social behavior with and without causal knowledge explicitly embedded. In this paper, we first present our causal modeling approach to discover the causal structure of four virtual worlds produced by the simulation teams—Urban Life, Financial Governance, Disaster and Geopolitical Conflict. Our approach adapts the state-of-the-art causal discovery (including ensemble models), machine learning, data analytics, and visualization techniques to allow a human-machine team to reverse-engineer the true causal relations from sampled and fully observed data. We next present our reproducibility analysis of two research methods team’s performance using a range of causal discovery models applied to both sampled and fully observed data, and analyze their effectiveness and limitations. We further investigate the generalizability and robustness to sampling of the SOTA causal discovery approaches on additional simulated datasets with known ground truth. Our results reveal the limitations of existing causal modeling approaches when applied to large-scale, noisy, high-dimensional data with unobserved variables and unknown relationships between them. We show that the SOTA causal models explored in our experiments are not designed to take advantage from vasts amounts of data and have difficulty recovering ground truth when latent confounders are present; they do not generalize well across simulation scenarios and are not robust to sampling; they are vulnerable to data and modeling assumptions, and therefore, the results are hard to reproduce. Finally, when we outline lessons learned and provide recommendations to improve models for causal discovery and prediction of human social behavior from observational data, we highlight the importance of learning data to knowledge representations or transformations to improve causal discovery and describe the benefit of causal feature selection for predictive and prescriptive modeling.
Bioinformatics Investigations of Universal Stress Proteins from Mercury-Methylating Desulfovibrionaceae
The presence of methylmercury in aquatic environments and marine food sources is of global concern. The chemical reaction for the addition of a methyl group to inorganic mercury occurs in diverse bacterial taxonomic groups including the Gram-negative, sulfate-reducing Desulfovibrionaceae family that inhabit extreme aquatic environments. The availability of whole-genome sequence datasets for members of the Desulfovibrionaceae presents opportunities to understand the microbial mechanisms that contribute to methylmercury production in extreme aquatic environments. We have applied bioinformatics resources and developed visual analytics resources to categorize a collection of 719 putative universal stress protein (USP) sequences predicted from 93 genomes of Desulfovibrionaceae. We have focused our bioinformatics investigations on protein sequence analytics by developing interactive visualizations to categorize Desulfovibrionaceae universal stress proteins by protein domain composition and functionally important amino acids. We identified 651 Desulfovibrionaceae universal stress protein sequences, of which 488 sequences had only one USP domain and 163 had two USP domains. The 488 single USP domain sequences were further categorized into 340 sequences with ATP-binding motif and 148 sequences without ATP-binding motif. The 163 double USP domain sequences were categorized into (1) both USP domains with ATP-binding motif (3 sequences); (2) both USP domains without ATP-binding motif (138 sequences); and (3) one USP domain with ATP-binding motif (21 sequences). We developed visual analytics resources to facilitate the investigation of these categories of datasets in the presence or absence of the mercury-methylating gene pair (hgcAB). Future research could utilize these functional categories to investigate the participation of universal stress proteins in the bacterial cellular uptake of inorganic mercury and methylmercury production, especially in anaerobic aquatic environments.
Visualization and Analytics of Distribution Systems with Deep Penetration of Distributed Energy Resources (VADER)
In its current state, the distribution system is incapable of handling small to moderate amounts of photovoltaic (PV) penetration. This is because it was initially designed for handling passive loads which, at the level of a substation, have low variability and are forecastable with high accuracy. It has been an open loop system with little monitoring and control. With the addition of PV energy sources, the overall scenario will change dramatically due to (1) two way power flow on network; and (2) high aggregate variability. Additionally, changes on the consumption side lead to a number of smart loads, Electric Vehicles (EVs), and Demand Response. These fundamental changes in the characteristics of the generation and consumption of power will lead to a number of practical engineering problems which must be overcome to allow increased penetration of Distributed PV. Solving the unique engineering challenges which arise at moderate levels of PV penetration requires closed loop integration of data from (1) PV sources; (2) customer load data from smart meters; (3) EV charging data; and (4) local and line mounted precision instruments. These data are not traditionally used by utilities in operations since they are ”non-SCADA” and the current grid does not require such levels of control. To integrate this data and provide real time intelligence from these non-SCADA data, we created the Visualization and Analytics of Distribution Systems with Deep Penetration of Distributed Energy Resources (VADER) platform. VADER is a collection of analytics enabled by integration of massive and heterogeneous data streams for granular real-time monitoring, visualization and control of Distributed Energy Resources (DER) in distribution networks. VADER analytics enable utilities to have greater visibility into distributed energy resources. We built several batch- and stream-analytics in VADER which help operators better understand the impact of distributed energy resources on the grid.
Visual Understanding of COVID-19 Knowledge Graph for Predictive Analysis
This study aims to effectively analyze and visualize the concept to concept network derived from the COVID-19 Open Research Dataset (CORD-19) dataset, where we have more than 48,000 concepts with more than 300,000 relationships between concepts. In analyzing networks, we focus on finding relationship patterns between the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) concepts and other concepts. Given the node and edge datasets, we construct directional graphs and calculate all pair shortest paths based on multiple edge weight schemes. However, statistical metrics are not sufficient to identify specific relationships represented in the network. Therefore, we also propose a visual analytics approach to effectively understand the knowledge graph. Our highly interactive visual analytics allows users to effectively analyze the evolving graphs and (COVID-19) concept nodes and other nodes related to the COVID-19 nodes. We envision that this study will pave the path to develop strategies to provide more accurate and scalable predictive analysis on knowledge graphs related to CORD19 and other biomedical knowledge graphs.
Utah FORGE: Well 16A(78)-32 Perforation Images and Raw Data
This archive contains raw data of visual and acoustic mapping of perforations in Utah FORGE well 16A(78)-32 acquired during the August 2024 circulation program. The dataset includes downhole images captured by EV, a downhole visual analytics company, providing visual records of each perforation. Images are organized in two folders: one set with perforation visualization overlays and one without. An included Excel spreadsheet provides the organized raw data.
Method and system for information retrieval and aggregation from inferred user reasoning
The visual analytic system enables information retrieval within large text collections. Typically, users have to directly and explicitly query information to retrieve it. With this system and process, the reasoning of the user is inferred from the user interaction they perform in a visual analytic tool, and the appropriate information to query, process, and visualize is systematically determined.
Visual HPC Workflows for the Analysis of System Dynamics Models
Visual analytics supported by high performance computing (HPC) accelerates and enhances the discovery, exploration, and analysis of causal patterns in complex system dynamics (SD) models. We present a suite of visualization-assisted ensemble-based techniques for hypothesis generation and testing, and for sensitivity analysis. By employing HPC to provide parallel, on-demand simulation of SD models, one can “steer” an ensemble of simulated scenarios in real time as one first formulates and then informally tests those hypotheses: this provides rapid feedback for analysts to refine their understanding of the causal relationships emergent from a model. Such understandings can be followed and augmented by rigorous application of statistical methods, namely global variance-based sensitivity analysis, Monte-Carlo filtering, adaptive regional sensitivity analysis, and self-organized maps: here timely computation relies on HPC, while effective presentation emphasizes high-dimensional multivariate data visualization. Immersive visualization in virtual 3D environments provides an excellent adjunct to the traditional 2D graphics typically used for SD models, as it generates an embodied understanding of model behavior and facilitates an active, collaborative critique of model structure and output. Finally, we summarize prospects for HPC-enabled visual analytics applied to SD modeling.
SNNVis: Visualizing Graph Embedding of Evolutionary Optimization for Spiking Neural Networks
While Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs) show a lot of promise, it is difficult to optimize them because applying traditional gradient-based optimization techniques is difficult. Even though evolutionary algorithms (EAs) have been shown to promise to optimize SNNs, understanding the relationship between evolving the characteristics of SNNs and their performance to improve the optimization algorithm is challenging because of the complex characteristics and huge population size. We propose visual analytics with novel graph embedding for evolutionary SNNs to address the challenges. While existing graph embedding techniques have limitations in preserving the specific features of the nodes and edges, our approach maintains them. Also, we develop visual analytics for understanding the relationship between the network performance and the features of nodes and edges and exploring and analyzing the evolving SNNs to build insights into improving the EA.
Visualization and Decision Making Design Under Uncertainty
This report documents the program and the outcomes of Dagstuhl Seminar 22331 "Visualization and Decision Making Design Under Uncertainty". The seminar brought together 33 researchers and practitioners from different domains concerned with visualization and decision making under uncertainty including visualization, visual analytics, human-computer interaction, artificial intelligence, climate research, geography and geology. The programme was organized in two parts: In the first part which lasted two days, participants gave short talks where they discussed current practices and the uncertainty visualization challenges they encountered in their own research. At the end of day two, participants brainstormed collectively around the main uncertainty visualization research challenges across domains and applications. In the second part, participants voted for the following three main challenges they wished to discuss for the remainder of the seminar (one and a half days): applications, human-centered uncertainty visualization, a design process for uncertainty visualization. Thus three break-out groups were formed to discuss these challenges. Abstracts for the individual talks and the break-out group activities are included in this report.
L-VISP: LSTM Visualization for Interpretable Symptom Prediction in Patient Cohorts
Symptom modelling in head and neck cancer is challenged by the complexity of heterogeneous patient data, leading to an interest in deep learning approaches. Although Long Short-Term Memory Networks (LSTMs) have shown great results in patient risk prediction, their low interpretability requires data modellers to collaborate with clinical experts to validate the results. We present L-VISP, a human–machine solution that uses visual analytics for LSTM modelling in clinical research. L-VISP uses custom visual encodings to make multiple LSTM variants interpretable, supporting a full range of analysis, from understanding model operations and evaluating performance to interpreting results in a clinical context. We evaluate L-VISP with data modellers and a clinical oncologist and present the takeaways from this multidisciplinary collaboration.
CMed: Crowd Analytics for Medical Imaging Data
In this work, we present a visual analytics framework, CMed, for exploring medical image data annotations acquired from crowdsourcing. CMed can be used to visualize, classify, and filter crowdsourced clinical data based on a number of different metrics such as detection rate, logged events, and clustering of the annotations. CMed provides several interactive linked visualization components to analyze the crowd annotation results for a particular video and the associated workers. Additionally, all results of an individual worker can be inspected using multiple linked views in our CMed framework. We allow a crowdsourcing application analyst to observe patterns and gather insights into the crowdsourced medical data, helping him/her design future crowdsourcing applications for optimal output from the workers. We demonstrate the efficacy of our framework with two medical crowdsourcing studies: polyp detection in virtual colonoscopy videos and lung nodule detection in CT thin-slab maximum intensity projection videos. We also provide experts' feedback to show the effectiveness of our framework. Lastly, we share the lessons we learned from our framework with suggestions for integrating our framework into a clinical workflow.
Expanding Access to Science Participation: A FAIR Framework for Petascale Data Visualization and Analytics
The massive data generated by scientists daily serve as both a major catalyst for new discoveries and innovations, as well as a significant roadblock that restricts access to the data. Here, our paper introduces a new approach to removing Big Data barriers and democratizing access to petascale data for the broader scientific community. Our novel data fabric abstraction layer allows user-friendly querying of scientific information while hiding the complexities of dealing with file systems or cloud services. We enable FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable) access to datasets such as NASA’s petascale climate datasets. Our paper presents an approach to managing, visualizing, and analyzing petabytes of data within a browser on equipment ranging from the top NASA supercomputer to commodity hardware like a laptop. Our novel data fabric abstraction utilizes state-of-the art progressive compression algorithms and machine-learning insights to power scalable visualization dashboards for petascale data. The result provides users with the ability to identify extreme events or trends dynamically, expanding access to scientific data and further enabling discoveries. We validate our approach by improving the ability of climate scientists to visually explore their data via three fully interactive dashboards. We further validate our approach by deploying the dashboards and simplified training materials in the classroom at a minority-serving institution. These dashboards, released in simplified form to the general public, contribute significantly to a broader push to democratize the access and use of climate data.
Vulnerable to misinformation? Verifi!
We present Verifi2, a visual analytic system to support the investigation of misinformation on social media. On the one hand, social media platforms empower individuals and organizations by democratizing the sharing of information. On the other hand, even well-informed and experienced social media users are vulnerable to misinformation. To address the issue, various models and studies have emerged from multiple disciplines to detect and understand the effects of misinformation. However, there is still a lack of intuitive and accessible tools that help social media users distinguish misinformation from verified news. In this paper, we present Verifi2, a visual analytic system that uses state-of-the-art computational methods to highlight salient features from text, social network, and images. By exploring news on a source level through multiple coordinated views in Verifi2, users can interact with the complex dimensions that characterize misinformation and contrast how real and suspicious news outlets differ on these dimensions. To evaluate Verifi2, we conduct interviews with experts in digital media, journalism, education, psychology, and computing who study misinformation. Our interviews show promising potential for Verifi2 to serve as an educational tool on misinformation. Furthermore, our interview results highlight the complexity of the problem of combating misinformation and call for more work from the visualization community.
Data Analytics and Visualization of Energy Systems for Critical Infrastructure Insights
Modernization of energy systems including transportation facilities provides opportunities for increased efficiency, expansion of commerce and meeting industry and federal goals. A significant increase in electrical demand is projected to meet these needs, which concentrates at facilities such as airports. For example, Xcel Energy working with two airports in their service area recently published information projecting an up to fivefold increase in electricity demand in the next 25 years [1]. Concurrently, the US Government Accountability Office (GAO) recently surveyed 30 commercial service airports identifying more than 300 outages of more than 5 minutes between 2015 and 2022 [2]. Power, reliability, and resilience planning becomes more important to safely maintain operations and the flow of commerce with fewer energy carriers providing necessary energy to safely move passengers and goods. NREL proposes to develop methodologies to allow owners, utilities, and federal agencies to dynamically analyze, forecast, and manage energy loads at airports, focused upon maintaining the flow of commerce in an efficient, sustainable, and resilient way. To address these energy challenges, a suite of technologies and methodologies can be leveraged to validate concepts, inform design, de-risk solutions and optimize energy management during deployment. These technologies include digitalization of energy systems, microgrid methodologies, and related energy technologies for building and vehicle loads. [1] Electrifying Airport Ecosystems - https://www.enterprisemobility.com/content/dam/enterpriseholdings/marketing/innovation-in-mobility/vehicle-innovation/airport-electrification-study-full-report-2024.pdf [2] Airport Infrastructure: Selected Airport's Efforts to Enhance Electrical Resilience https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-23-105203.
Data Visualization and Analytics for Optimal Process Parameter Selection in Turning
The objective of this project is to research physics-guided machine learning methods to recommend optimal tools and machining process parameters for turning applications using the MSC test database. For a given turning application, the MSC metalworking specialist needs to make decisions on tools and the associated process parameters for the MSC customer. For a given material, there are many alternatives for tools and a wide range of process parameters to consider. MSC has built a database of tools and parameters for different applications from the historical turning tests completed at various customer sites. The research project aims to use machine learning methods to predict optimal tools and process parameters for the MSC metalworking specialists using the MSC test database. This enables continuous learning of optimal tool and process parameters for different applications as new information is collected from testing. Through MSC, this information can be shared with machining shops across the US leading to improved productivity and efficiency.
HPC System Data Pipeline to Enable Meaningful Insights through Analytic-Driven Visualizations.
Abstract not provided.
VTK-m: ECP Data Management Data Analytics and Visualization Overview.
Abstract not provided.