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Radiative forcing perturbation due to observed increases in tropospheric ozone at Hohenpeissenberg

The effect on surface temperature due to changes in atmospheric O3 depends highly on the latitude where the change occurs. Previous sensitivity calculations indicate that ozone changes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere are more effective in causing surface temperature change (Wang et al., 1980). Long term ground-based observations show that tropospheric ozone, especially at the tropopause region, has been increasing at middle and high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere (NATO, 1988; Quadrennial Ozone Symposium, 1992). These increases will enhance the greenhouse effect and increase the radiative forcing to the troposphere-surface system, which is opposite to the negative radiative forcing calculated from the observed stratospheric ozone depletion recently reported in WMO (1992). We used more than two thousands regularly measured ozonesondes providing reliable vertical O3 distribution at Hohenpeissenberg (47N; 11E) for the 1967-1990 to study the instantaneous solar and longwave radiative forcing the two decades 1971-1990 and compare the forcing with those caused by increasing CO2, CH4, N2O, and CFCs. Calculations are also made to compare the O3 radiative forcing between stratospheric depletion and tropospheric increase. Results indicate that the O3 changes will induce a positive radiative forcing dominated by tropospheric O3 increase and the magnitude of the forcing is comparable to that due to CO2 increases during the two decades. The significant implications of the tropospheric O3 increase to the global climate are discussed.

Wang, Wei-Chyung↗

Ground-based intercomparisons of SBUV/2 flight instruments the world standard Dobson spectrophotometer 83 and overpass observations from Nimbus-7 TOMS and NOAA-11 SBUV/2

Total ozone data obtained during summers at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii, with Dobson Spectrophotometer 83 are routinely compared with overpass total ozone data from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) and the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) spectrometer launched aboard the Nimbus 7 satellite in 1978. Results from the TOMS/Dobson instrument comparisons through 1990 have been presented by McPeters and Komhyr (1991). Dobson spectrophotometer 83 was established as the standard instrument for the U.S.A. Dobson instrument station network in 1962. In 1980, the instrument was designated by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) as the Standard Dobson Spectrophotometer for the World. Long-term ozone measurement precision of the instrument has been maintained at plus or minus 0.5 percent (Komhyr et al., 1989). On an absolute scale, the ozone measurement accuracy of the instrument is estimated to plus or minus 3 percent. In early April, 1990, comparison of total ozone and vertical distribution (Umkehr) observations were made for the first time with Dobson spectrophotometer 8.3. The work was conducted at the NOAA Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory (CMDL) in Boulder, Colorado, and at the research and instrument manufacturing facility of the Ball Aerospace System Division located about 2 km east of Boulder. (The SBUV-2 S/N-2 instrument, built by Ball Aerospace Systems Division, is scheduled for launch aboard the NOAA-13 satellite). We present results of the comparisons which include ozone vertical distribution data obtained with a balloon-borne electrochemical concentration cell (ECC) ozonesonde (Komhyr, 1969).

Heath, D. F.↗

Pollution Monitoring: An Engineering Challenge

One purpose in presenting this material is to bring to the attention of engineers background material which they would not normally encounter in the course of routine development work. An excellent and timely reference is as follows: Seminar on Methods of Detection, Measurement and Monitoring of Pollutants in the Marine Environment. The international seminar was organized by FAO with the support of UNESCO, IAEA, SCOR and WMO, and was held in Rome, Italy, 4-10 December 1970. The final report, the title of which was given, is a very thoroughgoing document and certainly a must reference for anyone seriously considering the development of sensors for pollution measurement. Perhaps it would be appropriate to present some exact quotations selected from the referenced document. The quotations follow: 1) "The pressures to develop sensitive and reliable methods come about when those responsible for the management of our environment need an objective evaluation of existing or potential perils." 2) "Nearly all of the Panels concerned with the contaminants identified specific examples of man's waste products which may be leaking to the environment in substantial quantities and for which as yet there are no analytical techniques available ". 3) "Very few analyses for organochlorine pesticides appear to have been carried out on sea water and the panel considered that the present methodology was not capable of detecting, on a routine basis, the quantities of these compounds in open sea waters." and 4) "This corresponds essentially to the ratio of useful data produced to the labour expended, since instrumentation costs in the long run become negligible."

Snodgrass, J. M.↗

On the Dome Effect of Flux Radiometers to Radiative Forcing

Since the introduction of thermopile, pyranometers (solar, e.g., 0.3-3.0 micrometers) and pyrgeometers (terrestrial, e.g., 4-50 micrometers) have become instruments commonly used for measuring the broadband hemispherical irradiances at the surface in a long-term, monitoring mode for decades. These commercially available radiometers have been manufactured in several countries such as from the United States, Asia, and Europe, and are generally reliable and economical. These worldwide distributions of surface measurements become even more important in the era of Earth remote sensing in studying climate forcing. However, recent studies from field campaigns have pointed out that erroneous factors (e.g., temperature gradients between the filter dome and detector, emissivity of the thermopile) are responsible for the unacceptable level of uncertainty (e.g., 10-20 W m (exp -2)). Using a newly developed instrument of Quantum Well Infrared Photodetector (QWIP), we have characterized the brightness temperature fields of pyranometers and pyrgeometers under various sky conditions. The QWIP is based on the superlattice (GaAs/AlGaAs) technology and has a noise equivalent temperature (NE delta T) less than 0.1 K. The quality of pyranometer and pyrgeometer measurements can be improved largely by applying proper knowledge of the thermal parameters affecting the operation of the thermopile systems. For example, we show a method to determine the "dome factor" (the longwave emission divided by the longwave transmission of a pyrgeometer dome) from field measurements. The results show, and are verified independently by the QWIP, that our dome factors of 0.59 and 0.90 are much smaller than the value of 4.0 assumed by the WMO (World Meteorological Organization). Data correction procedure and algorithm will be presented and discussed.

Tsay, S.-C.↗

On the Dome Effect of Flux Radiometers to Radiative Forcing

Since the introduction of thermopile, pyranometers (solar, e.g., 0.3-3.0 microns) and pyrgeometers (terrestrial, e.g., 4-50 microns) have become instruments commonly used for measuring the broadband hemispherical irradiances at the surface in a long-term, monitoring mode for decades. These commercially available radiometers have been manufactured in several countries such as from the United States, Asia, and Europe, and are generally reliable and economical. These worldwide distributions of surface measurements become even more important in the era of Earth remote sensing in studying climate forcing. However, recent studies from field campaigns have pointed out that erroneous factors (e.g., temperature gradients between the filter dome and detector, emissivity of the thermopile) are responsible for the unacceptable level of uncertainty (e.g., 10-20 W/square Meter). Using a newly developed instrument of Quantum Well Infrared Photodetector (QWIP), we have characterized the brightness temperature fields of pyranometers and pyrgeometers under various sky conditions. The QWIP is based on the superlattice (GaAs/AlGaAs) technology and has a noise equivalent temperature (NE delta T) less than 0.1 K. The quality of pyranometer and pyrgeometer measurements can be improved largely by applying proper knowledge of the thermal parameters affecting the operation of the thermopile systems. For example, we show a method to determine the "dome factor" (the longwave emission divided by the longwave transmission of a pyrgeometer dome) from field measurements. The results show, and are verified independently by the QWIP, that our dome factors of 0.59 and 0.90 are much smaller than the value of 4.0 assumed by the WMO. Data correction procedure and algorithm will be presented and discussed.

Tsay, S.-C.↗

Comparison of Sunphotometric Measurements During the Fall 1997 ARM Intensive Observation Period

In the Fall of 1997 the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program held an intensive observation period (IOP) to study atmospheric aerosols using in situ and remote sensing techniques at its Southern Great Plains (SGP) site near Lamont, Oklahoma. As part of this experiment five automated, tracking sunphotometers were present to measure total column aerosol optical depth over the three-week period. which included many clear days or parts of days that were clear. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO 1993) has recommended a comparison of tracking sunphotometers to assess the ability of different instruments to arrive at similar aerosol optical depths. It was further recommended that the comparison be staged at a clean mountain site. In fact, this comparison has not occurred, but the comparison that we describe in this paper is representative of what contemporary instruments may accomplish in an environment more typical of sites where aerosols measurements will be required. The measurements were made over the period 15 September to 5 October 1997. The aerosol loading varied from extremely clean to moderately turbid conditions. In the next section the instruments will be described along with a brief explanation of the calibration techniques. The third section contains the results compared graphically on moderately turbid and fairly clean days and in a table representing the whole period. The paper ends with a section of discussion and a summary of the results.

Michalsky, J. J.↗

Tropospheric Total Ozone in the Region of the Equatorial south Atlantic Ocean

As a consequence of the SHADOZ effort it is possible to examine Tropospheric Total Ozone TTO, over Ascension Island (8S,14W) and compare results with similar ozone soundings for the period July 1990 through October 1992. Because of the nearly 20-year long cooperation between NASA and INPE it is possible to also compare the Ascension Island results with the long-term ozone data set available from Natal, Brazil (6S,35W). The Natal site meets requirements of the SHADOZ program. The tropopause is determined objectively using the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) criteria and the radiosonde's temperature and altitude parameters. Once tropopause heights are determined TTO can be calculated. Time-series profiles illustrate changes in TTO over the period of record.

Schmidlin, Francis J.↗

Integrated Global Observation Strategy - Ozone and Atmospheric Chemistry Project

The "Long Term Continuity of Stratospheric Ozone Measurements and Atmospheric Chemistry" project was one of six established by the Committee on Earth Observing Satellites (CEOS) in response to the Integrated Global Observing Strategy (IGOS) initiative. IGOS links satellite and ground based systems for global environmental observations. The strategy of this project is to develop a consensus of user requirements including the scientific (SPARC, IGAC, WCRP) and the applications community (WMO, UNEP) and to develop a long-term international plan for ozone and atmospheric chemistry measurements. The major components of the observing system include operational and research (meeting certain criteria) satellite platforms planned by the space faring nations which are integrated with a well supported and sustained ground, aircraft, and balloon measurements program for directed observations as well satellite validation. Highly integrated and continuous measurements of ozone, validation, and reanalysis efforts are essential to meet the international scientific and applications goals. In order to understand ozone trends, climate change, and air quality, it is essential to conduct long term measurements of certain other atmospheric species. These species include key source, radical, and reservoir constituents.

Hilsenrath, Ernest↗

Ground Based, Millimeter Wave Measurement of Ozone in the Middle Atmosphere

There is a need for highly reliable measurements of stratospheric ozone. Policy makers worldwide concerned with public health rely oil a clear consensus from the scientific community as a basis for ozone-related environmental policy that has a significant impact oil national economies. Tile latest Such consensus was presented in WMO, and used in a 1999 meeting of the parties considering amendments to the Montreal Protocol oil Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer. Tile scientific community, in turn, needs highly precise and accurate measurements of ozone levels, and small time derivatives of these levels, both in continued - development of its understanding of the physical and chemical processes involved and as clear evidence that these processes are occurring as stated. Over most of the world, changes in ozone levels are small. For example, over the heavily populated northern midlatitudes, the linearized rate of ozone decline is between 0.2% per year and 0.7% per year, depending on altitude. These values are small enough to make measurement requirements technically challenging. Data quality may suffer from imperfections in individual instruments. In one instance, early results from a satellite-borne ozone sensor were later found to be invalid because of calibration drift. Even in the absence of drift, tile absolute calibration of a new sensor may differ slightly from that of its predecessor in service. Most ozone remote sensing instruments operate at ultraviolet or infrared wavelengths where scattering from dust and aerosols must be taken into account; results from these systems may be or are affected following a major volcanic eruption, such as tile one at Mt. Pinatubo in 1991. Given these difficulties, a consensus of measurements from several independent systems is required to insure a reliable understanding of stratospheric ozone levels. Because of the above-described need for highly precise and accurate ozone measurements using several independent techniques, there was interest in developing several techniques which were known but not highly developed in the 1980's into systems capable of being used in ail operational manner to make measurements with the level of quality needed to-detect small trends in ozone levels. A ground-based microwave instrument capable of remotely sensing stratospheric ozone had been designed by tile Principal Investigator of the present project. This instrument was built at tile Millitech Corporation in South Deerfield, Massachusetts before tile present work began. (Funding for design and construction of the instrument came from sources other than the present grant.) Tile instrument measured the spectrum of one of the many emission lines produced by purely rotational transitions of ozone, one at a frequency of 110.8 GHz. The altitude distribution of ozone can. in principle, be retrieved from the details of the pressure-broadened spectrum of the ozone transition. However, the level of contamination of the spectral measurement by instrumentally induced artifacts must be very low in order to retrieve a ozone profile of useful quality from it. The Millitech instrument demonstrated spectral purity at ail adequate level, and there were promising ideas for instrumental improvements and for further development of the technique. The initial objectives of the present project, then, were to develop techniques for calibrating the Millitech instrument, to minimize artifacts in tile spectra it produces, to optimally retrieve ozone profiles from tile spectra, to test tile quality of the microwave profiles by comparing them with profiles obtained using several other, independent techniques over both short and periods of time, and to perform research using the ozone data gathered with the instrument.

Parrish, Alan↗

The Continuation of Cloud Statistics for NASA Climate Change Studies

The weather systems, cyclones, and anticyclones, along with air trajectories and cloud forms, are compared to past studies of the Arctic to assess compatibility of the four month study of the Arctic Cloud Experiment flights of the First ISCCP Regional Experiment (FIRE/ACE) with past climatologies. The frequency and movement of cyclones (lows) and anticyclones (highs) followed the general eastward and northeastward directions indicated by past studies. Most cyclones (lows) came from eastern Siberia and the Bering Sea to the south and moved north across the Bering Straight or Alaska into the Arctic Ocean. They generally weakened in central pressure as they moved poleward. Anticyclones (highs) were most common in the eastern Beaufort Sea near Canada in June and July as predicted from previous studies. However, many cyclones and anticyclones moved in westward directions which is rare in other latitudes. Erratic changes in shape and intensity on a daily basis also were observed. The National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) analysis generally reflected the Surface Heat Budget in the Arctic (SHEBA) Ship World Meteorological Organization (WMO) observations which it used. However, NCEP temperatures were biased warm by 1.0 to 1.5 C in April and early May. In July when the surface temperature were at the freezing/thawing point, the NCEP analysis changed to a cold bias of -1.0 C. Dew points had smaller biases except for July where they were biased cold by -1.4 C. Wind speeds had a -2 m/s low bias for the six windiest days. Surface barometric pressures had consistently low biases from -1.2 to -2.8 hPa in all four months. Air parcel historical trajectories were mainly from the south or from local anticyclonic gyres in the Beaufort Sea. Most air came to the SHEBA Ship from the north Pacific Ocean or from Alaska and Canada and occasionally from eastern Siberia. Very few trajectories traced back across the pole to Europe and Central Asia. Cloud cover was high, as expected, from 69-86% of the time. Satellite data also indicate frequent stratus, altostratus, and cirrus clouds (occurring 61% of the time) above the expected boundary layer fog and Arctic stratus clouds.

Wylie, Donald P.↗

Comparison of Flow-Dependent and Static Error Correlation Models in the DAO Ozone Data Assimilation System

In a data assimilation system the forecast error covariance matrix governs the way in which the data information is spread throughout the model grid. Implementation of a correct method of assigning covariances is expected to have an impact on the analysis results. The simplest models assume that correlations are constant in time and isotropic or nearly isotropic. In such models the analysis depends on the dynamics only through assumed error standard deviations. In applications to atmospheric tracer data assimilation this may lead to inaccuracies, especially in regions with strong wind shears or high gradient of potential vorticity, as well as in areas where no data are available. In order to overcome this problem we have developed a flow-dependent covariance model that is based on short term evolution of error correlations. The presentation compares performance of a static and a flow-dependent model applied to a global three- dimensional ozone data assimilation system developed at NASA s Data Assimilation Office. We will present some results of validation against WMO balloon-borne sondes and the Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement (POAM) III instrument. Experiments show that allowing forecast error correlations to evolve with the flow results in positive impact on assimilated ozone within the regions where data were not assimilated, particularly at high latitudes in both hemispheres and in the troposphere. We will also discuss statistical characteristics of both models; in particular we will argue that including evolution of error correlations leads to stronger internal consistency of a data assimilation ,

Wargan, K.↗

The Effect of Transport and Circulation Differences on Stratospheric Ozone Recovery in Two 35-year Three-dimensional Simulations

The NASA Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) has completed two 35-year simulations with WMO future baseline boundary conditions that simulate increasing N2O and CH4 emissions and decreasing organic chlorine and bromine emissions. Simulations were done with the GMI offline chemistry and transport model using 1) 1 year of winds from the Finite-Volume General Circulation Model (FV-GCM), repeated for the 35 years, and 2) 1 year of winds from the Finite-Volume Data Assimilation System (FV-DAS), repeated for 35-years. The simulations have full stratospheric chemistry. To understand differences in simulated ozone recoveries, basic transport and circulation differences between these models are evaluated. The distribution of mean age of stratospheric air in the FV-GCM run agrees well with observations in the lower stratosphere but the FV-DAS ages are generally too low. This implies circulation and mixing differences that will affect the distributions of other trace species such as CH4, NO, and the organic halogens, all of which are responding to changing boundary conditions and are involved in ozone loss. Realism of model transport is evaluated, with particular attention given to regions and seasons where ozone recovery is expected. Preliminary results indicate increasing ozone trends in the lowermost stratosphere in summer and in the Antarctic and Arctic lower stratosphere in winter and spring.

Bhartia, P. K.↗

Impact of Flow-Dependent Error Correlations and Tropospheric Chemistry on Assimilated Ozone

The presentation compares different versions of a global three-dimensional ozone data assimilation system developed at NASA's Data Assimilation Office. The Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet/2 (SBUV/2) total and partial ozone column retrievals are the sole data assimilated in all of the experiments presented. We study the impact of changing the forecast error covariance model from a version assuming static correlations with a one that captures a short-term Lagrangian evolution of those correlations. This is further combined with a study of the impact of neglecting the tropospheric ozone production, loss and dry deposition rates, which are obtained from the Harvard GEOS-CHEM model. We compare statistical characteristics of the assimilated data and the results of validation against independent observations, obtained from WMO balloon-borne sondes and the Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement (POAM) III instrument. Experiments show that allowing forecast error correlations to evolve with the flow results in positive impact on assimilated ozone within the regions where data were not assimilated, particularly at high latitudes in both hemispheres. On the other hand, the main sensitivity to tropospheric chemistry is in the Tropics and sub-Tropics. The best agreement between the assimilated ozone and the in-situ sonde data is in the experiment using both flow-dependent error covariances and tropospheric chemistry.

Wargan, K.↗

Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) Meteorological and Oceanographic Data Sets for 1985 and 1986

The Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) Program is a component of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)/International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU) World Climate Research Program (WCRP). One of the objectives of TOGA, which began in 1985, is to determine the limits of predictability of monthly mean sea surface temperature variations in tropical regions. The TOGA program created a raison d'etre for an explosive growth of the tropical ocean observing system and a substantial improvement in numerical simulations from atmospheric and oceanic general circulation models. Institutions located throughout the world are involved in the TOGA-distributed active data archive system. The diverse TOGA data sets for 1985 and 1986, including results from general circulation models, are included on a CD-ROM. Variables on the CD-ROM are barometric pressure, surface air temperature, dewpoint temperature Cartesian components of surface wind, surface sensible and latent heat fluxes,Cartesian components of surface wind stress and of an index of surface wind stress, sea level, sea surface temperature, and depth profiles of temperature and current in the upper ocean. Some data sets are global in extent, some are regional and cover portions of an ocean basin. Data on the CD-ROM can be extracted with an Apple Macintosh or an IBM PC.

Halpern, D.↗

Impact of Urban Surfaces on Precipitation Processes

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established in 1988 by two United Nations organizations, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) to assess the "risk of human-induced climate change". Such reports are used by decision-makers around the world to assess how our climate is changing. Its reports are widely respected and cited and have been highly influential in forming national and international responses to climate change. The Fourth Assessment report includes a section on the effects of surface processes on climate. This sub-chapter provides an overview of recent developments related to the impact of cities on rainfall. It highlights the possible mechanisms that buildings, urban heat islands, urban aerosols or pollution, and other human factors in cities that can affect rainfall.

Shepherd, J. M.↗

The Joint Aerosol-Monsoon Experiment: A New Challenge to Monsoon Climate Research

Aerosol and monsoon related droughts and floods are two of the most serious environmental hazards confronting more than 60% of the population of the world living in the Asian monsoon countries. In recent years, thanks to improved satellite and in-situ observations, and better models, great strides have been made in aerosol, and monsoon research respectively. There is now a growing body of evidence suggesting that interaction of aerosol forcing with water cycle dynamics in monsoon regions may substantially alter the redistribution of energy at the earth surface and in the atmosphere, and therefore significantly impact monsoon rainfall variability and long term trends. In this talk, I will describe issues related to societal needs, scientific background, and challenges in studies of aerosol-water cycle interaction in Asian monsoon regions. As a first step towards addressing these issues, the authors call for an integrated observation and modeling research approach aimed at the interactions between aerosol chemistry and radiative effects and monsoon dynamics of the coupled ocean-atmosphere-land system. A Joint Aerosol-Monsoon Experiment (JAMEX) is proposed for 2007-2011, with an enhanced observation period during 2008-09, encompassing diverse arrays of observations from surface, aircraft, unmanned aerial vehicles, and satellites of physical and chemical properties of aerosols, long range aerosol transport as well as meteorological and oceanographic parameters in the Indo-Pacific Asian monsoon region. JAMEX will leverage on coordination among many ongoing and planned national programs on aerosols and monsoon research in China, India, Japan, Nepal, Italy, US, as well as international research programs of the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

Lau, William K. M.↗

Spatio-Temporal Variability of Atmospheric CO2 as Observed from In-Situ Measurements over North America during NASA Field Campaigns (2004-2008)

Regional-scale measurements were made over the eastern United States (Intercontinental Chemical Transport Experiment - North America (INTEX-NA), summer 2004); Mexico (Megacity Initiative: Local and Global Research Observations (MILAGRO), March 2006); the eastern North Pacific and Alaska (INTEX-B May 2006); and the Canadian Arctic (Arctic Research of the Composition of the Troposphere from Aircraft and Satellites (ARCTAS), spring and summer 2008). For these field campaigns, instrumentation for the in situ measurement of CO2 was integrated on the NASA DC-8 research aircraft providing high-resolution (1 second) data traceable to the WMO CO2 mole fraction scale. These observations provide unique and definitive data sets via their intermediate-scale coverage and frequent vertical profiles (0.1 - 12 km) for examining the variability CO2 exhibits above the Earth s surface. A bottom-up anthropogenic CO2 emissions inventory (1deg 1deg) and processing methodology has also been developed for North America in support of these airborne science missions. In this presentation, the spatio-temporal distributions of CO2 and CO column values derived from the campaign measurements will be examined in conjunction with the emissions inventory and transport histories to aid in the interpretation of the CO2 observations.

Choi, Yonghoon↗

Using Transport Diagnostics to Understand Chemistry Climate Model Ozone Simulations

We demonstrate how observations of N2O and mean age in the tropical and midlatitude lower stratosphere (LS) can be used to identify realistic transport in models. The results are applied to 15 Chemistry Climate Models (CCMs) participating in the 2010 WMO assessment. Comparison of the observed and simulated N2O/mean age relationship identifies models with fast or slow circulations and reveals details of model ascent and tropical isolation. The use of this process-oriented N2O/mean age diagnostic identifies models with compensating transport deficiencies that produce fortuitous agreement with mean age. We compare the diagnosed model transport behavior with a model's ability to produce realistic LS O3 profiles in the tropics and midlatitudes. Models with the greatest tropical transport problems show the poorest agreement with observations. Models with the most realistic LS transport agree more closely with LS observations and each other. We incorporate the results of the chemistry evaluations in the SPARC CCMVal Report (2010) to explain the range of CCM predictions for the return-to-1980 dates for global (60 S-60 N) and Antarctic column ozone. Later (earlier) Antarctic return dates are generally correlated to higher (lower) vortex Cl(sub y) levels in the LS, and vortex Cl(sub y) is generally correlated with the model's circulation although model Cl(sub y) chemistry or Cl(sub y) conservation can have a significant effect. In both regions, models that have good LS transport produce a smaller range of predictions for the return-to-1980 ozone values. This study suggests that the current range of predicted return dates is unnecessarily large due to identifiable model transport deficiencies.

Strahan, S. E.↗