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Effects of Cloud-Microphysics on Tropical Atmospheric Hydrologic Processes in the GEOS GCM

The sensitivity of tropical atmospheric hydrologic processes to cloud-microphysics is investigated using the NASA GEOS GCM. Results show that a faster autoconversion - rate produces more warm rain and less clouds at all levels. Fewer clouds enhances longwave cooling and reduces shortwave heating in the upper troposphere, while more warm rain produces increased condensation heating in the lower troposphere. This vertical heating differential destablizes the tropical atmosphere, producing a positive feedback resulting in more rain over the tropics. The feedback is maintained via a two-cell secondary circulation. The lower cell is capped by horizontal divergence and maximum cloud detrainment near the melting/freezing, with rising motion in the warm rain region connected to descending motion in the cold rain region. The upper cell is found above the freezing/melting level, with longwave-induced subsidence in the warm rain and dry regions, coupled to forced ascent in the deep convection region. The tropical large scale circulation is found to be very sensitive to the radiative-dynamic effects induced by changes in autoconversion rate. Reduced cloud-radiation processes feedback due to a faster autoconversion rate results in intermittent but more energetic eastward propagating Madden and Julian Oscillations (MJO). Conversely,-a slower autconversion rate, with increased cloud radiation produces MJO's with more realistic westward propagating transients, resembling a supercloud cluster structure. Results suggests that warm rain and associated low and mid level clouds, i.e., cumulus congestus, may play a critical role in regulating the time-intervals of deep convections and hence the fundamental time scales of the MJO.

Lau, K. M.↗

Stratospheric Sulfuric Acid and Black Carbon Aerosol Measured During POLARIS and its Role in Ozone Chemistry

Stratospheric aerosol can affect the environment in three ways. Sulfuric acid aerosol have been shown to act as sites for the reduction of reactive nitrogen and chlorine and as condensation sites to form Polar Stratospheric Clouds, under very cold conditions, which facilitate ozone depletion. Recently, modeling studies have suggested a link between BCA (Black Carbon Aerosol) and ozone chemistry. These studies suggest that HNO3, NO2, and O3 may be reduced heterogeneously on BCA particles. The ozone reaction converts ozone to oxygen molecules, while HNO3 and NO2 react to form NOx. Finally, a buildup of BCA could reduce the single-scatter albedo of aerosol below a value of 0.98, a critical value that has been postulated to change the effect of stratospheric aerosol from cooling to warming. Correlations between measured BCA amounts and aircraft usage have been reported. Attempts to link BCA to ozone chemistry and other stratospheric processes have been hindered by questions concerning the amount of BCA that exists in the stratosphere, the magnitude of reaction probabilities, and the scarcity of BCA measurements. The Ames Wire Impactors (AWI) participated in POLARIS as part of the complement of experiments on the NASA ER-2. One of our main objectives was to determine the amount of aerosol surface area, particularly BCA, available for reaction with stratospheric constituents and assess if possible, the importance of these reactions. The AWI collects aerosol and BCA particles on thin Palladium wires that are exposed to the ambient air in a controlled manner. The samples are returned to the laboratory for subsequent analysis. The product of the AWI analysis is the size, surface area, and volume distributions, morphology and elemental composition of aerosol and BCA. This paper presents results from our experiments during POLARIS and puts these measurements in the context of POLARIS and other missions in which we have participated. It describes modifications to the AWI data analysis procedures in which the collection of BCA is modeled as a fractal aggregate. The new analysis results in an increase in BCA surface area of approximately 24 and an increase in mass of 7-10 from the previous method. For the current study, BCA surface area is used in computer models that attempt to predict measured NOx/NOy ratios and O3 depletion rates. Inclusion of the HNO3 reaction with BCA in one model tends to improve the agreement of calculated to measured NOx/NOy ratio. However, it was found that these trends are viable only if the reactions are catalytic.

Strawa, Anthony W.↗

Global Warming and 21st Century Drying

Global warming is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of droughts in the twenty-first century, but the relative contributions from changes in moisture supply (precipitation) versus evaporative demand (potential evapotranspiration; PET) have not been comprehensively assessed. Using output from a suite of general circulation model (GCM) simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, projected twentyfirst century drying and wetting trends are investigated using two offline indices of surface moisture balance: the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). PDSI and SPEI projections using precipitation and Penman- Monteith based PET changes from the GCMs generally agree, showing robust cross-model drying in western North America, Central America, the Mediterranean, southern Africa, and the Amazon and robust wetting occurring in the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes and east Africa (PDSI only). The SPEI is more sensitive to PET changes than the PDSI, especially in arid regions such as the Sahara and Middle East. Regional drying and wetting patterns largely mirror the spatially heterogeneous response of precipitation in the models, although drying in the PDSI and SPEI calculations extends beyond the regions of reduced precipitation. This expansion of drying areas is attributed to globally widespread increases in PET, caused by increases in surface net radiation and the vapor pressure deficit. Increased PET not only intensifies drying in areas where precipitation is already reduced, it also drives areas into drought that would otherwise experience little drying or even wetting from precipitation trends alone. This PET amplification effect is largest in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, and is especially pronounced in western North America, Europe, and southeast China. Compared to PDSI projections using precipitation changes only, the projections incorporating both precipitation and PET changes increase the percentage of global land area projected to experience at least moderate drying (PDSI standard deviation of < or = -1) by the end of the twenty-first century from 12 to 30 %. PET induced moderate drying is even more severe in the SPEI projections (SPEI standard deviation of > or = -1; 11 to 44 %), although this is likely less meaningful because much of the PET induced drying in the SPEI occurs in the aforementioned arid regions. Integrated accounting of both the supply and demand sides of the surface moisture balance is therefore critical for characterizing the full range of projected drought risks tied to increasing greenhouse gases and associated warming of the climate system.

moisture↗

Motivation in vigilance - Effects of self-evaluation and experimenter-controlled feedback.

Vigilance experiments have been performed to study the relative efficiency of feedback operations in enhancing vigilance performance. Two feedback operations were compared - i.e., experimenter-controlled feedback in the form of knowledge of results (KR) regarding response times to signal detections, and subject-controlled feedback in the form of self-evaluation (SE) of response times to signal detections. The subjects responded to the aperiodic offset of a visual signal during a 1-hr vigil. Both feedback operations were found to enhance performance efficiency: subjects in the KR and SE conditions had faster response times than controls receiving no evaluative feedback. Moreover, the data of the KR and SE groups did not differ significantly from each other. The results are discussed in terms of the hypothesis that self-evaluation is a critical factor underlying the incentive value of KR in vigilance tasks.

Warm, J. S.↗

Chemical reactivity of hydrogen, nitrogen, and oxygen atoms at temperatures below 100 k

The synthesis of unusual compounds by techniques employing cryogenic cooling to retard their very extreme reactivity was investigated. Examples of such species that were studied are diimide (N2H2), cyclobutadiene (C4H4), cyclopropanone (C3H4O), oxirene (C2H2O), and many others. Special purpose cryogenically cooled inlet arrangements were designed such that the analyses incurred no warm-up of the cold, and frequently explosively unstable, compounds. Controlled energy electron impact techniques were used to measure critical potentials and to develop the molecular energetics and thermodynamics of these molecules and to gain some insight into their kinetic characteristics as well. Three and four carbon strained ring molecules were studied. Several reactions of oxygen and hydrogen atoms with simple molecules of H, N, C, and O in hard quench configurations were studied. And the quench stabilization of BH3 was explored as a model system in cryochemistry.

Mcgee, H. A., Jr.↗

Looking for systematic error in scale from terrestrial reference frames derived from DORIS data

The long-term stability of the scale of Terrestrial Reference Frames is directly linked with station height determination and is critical for several scientific studies, such as global mean sea level rise or ocean circulation with consequences on global warming studies. In recent International Terrestrial Reference Frame solutions, the DORIS technique was not sonsidered able to provide any useful information on scale. We have analyzed three different DORIS time series of coordinates performed independently using different software packages.

Terrestrial Reference Frame (TRF)↗

Tracking the Martian CO2 Polar Ice Caps in Infrared Images

Researchers at NASA s Jet Propulsion Laboratory have developed a method for automatically tracking the polar caps on Mars as they advance and recede each year (see figure). The seasonal Mars polar caps are composed mainly of CO2 ice and are therefore cold enough to stand out clearly in infrared data collected by the Thermal Emission Imaging System (THEMIS) onboard the Mars Odyssey spacecraft. The Bimodal Image Temperature (BIT) histogram analysis algorithm analyzes raw, uncalibrated data to identify images that contain both "cold" ("polar cap") and "warm" ("not polar cap") pixels. The algorithm dynamically identifies the temperature that separates these two regions. This flexibility is critical, because in the absence of any calibration, the threshold temperature can vary significantly from image to image. Using the identified threshold, the algorithm classifies each pixel in the image as "polar cap" or "not polar cap," then identifies the image row that contains the spatial transition from "polar cap" to "not polar cap." While this method is useful for analyzing data that has already been returned by THEMIS, it has even more significance with respect to data that has not yet been collected. Instead of seeking the polar cap only in specific, targeted images, the simplicity and efficiency of this method makes it feasible for direct, onboard use. That is, THEMIS could continuously monitor its observations for any detections of the polar-cap edge, producing detections over a wide range of spatial and temporal conditions. This effort can greatly contribute to our understanding of long-term climatic change on Mars.

Wagstaff, Kiri L.↗

Global Methane Assessment: Benefits and Costs of Mitigating Methane Emissions

The assessment highlights the critical role that cutting methane emissions, including from the fossil fuel industry, plays in slowing the rate of global warming. Cutting human-caused methane by 45% this decade would keep warming beneath a threshold agreed by world leaders. There are multiple benefits to acting including: the rapid reduction of warming, which can help prevent dangerous climate tipping points; improved air quality that can save hundreds of thousands of lives; improve food security by preventing crop losses; and create jobs through mitigation efforts while increasing productivity through reduced heat stress.

Methane↗

Planetary waves-mean flow interaction in the middle atmosphere: Lidar observations and modelisation

Lidar observations of the temperature from 30 to 80 km have been made at the Observatory of Haute-Provence on an operational basis since 1981. Data obtained during the four last winters indicate the quasi-systematic presence of traveling Rossby waves with periods ranging from 5 to 20 days and a vacillation of the zonal mean circulation leading to a succession of upper stratospheric warmings and associated mesospheric coolings spaced by 25 to 50 days. A semi-spectral model of the wave one-mean flow interaction has been used to interpret these results. When a stationary wave forcing is imposed at the lower boundary of the model, a vacillation of the zonal flow is obtained as soon as the amplitude of this wave reaches a critical value of about 140 m. When an 18-day westward traveling wave is imposed in supplement to this forcing, the date of occurrence of the upper stratospheric warmings is imposed by the coincidence of the phases of the two waves that enhanced the forcing.

Hauchecorne, A.↗

A model El Nino-Southern Oscillation

A coupled atmosphere-ocean model is developed and used to study the ENSO (El Nino/Southern Oscillation) phenomenon. With no anomalous external forcing, the coupled model reproduces certain key features of the observed phenomenon, including the recurrence of warm events at irregular intervals with a preference for three to four years. It is shown that the mean sea surface temperature, wind and ocean current fields determine the characteristic spatial structure of ENSO anomalies. The tendency for phase-locking of anomalies is explained in terms of a variation in coupling strength associated with the annual cycle in the mean fields. Sensitivity studies reveal that both the amplitude and the time scale of the oscillation are sensitive to several parameters that affect the strength of the atmosphere-ocean coupling. Stronger coupling implies larger oscillations with a longer timescale. A critical element of the model oscillation is the variability in the equatorial heat content of the upper ocean. Equatorial heat content increases prior to warm events and decreases sharply during the events. A theory for this variability and the associated transitions between non-El Nino and El Nino states is presented. Implications of the model results for the prediction of El Nino events are discussed.

Zebiak, Stephen E.↗

Intensified Warming and Aridity Accelerate Terminal Lake Desiccation in the Great Basin of the Western United States

Terminal lakes in the Great Basin (GB) of the western US host critical wildlife habitat and food for migrating birds and can be associated with serious human health and economic consequences when they desiccate. Water levels have declined dramatically in the last 100+ years due to diversion of inflows, drought and climate change. Satellite-derived environmental science data records (ESDRs) from the MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) (snow cover, evapotranspiration (ET) and land surface temperature (LST)), enable a unique approach to evaluate the effects of aridification on terminal lakes and to study their individual vulnerabilities. Surface and air temperatures in the GB are rising dramatically, with a sharp rise in the rate of increase observed beginning around 2011, while the number of days of snow cover is declining especially in the western mountainous part of the GB as exemplified in Mono Basin, California. Rising temperatures coincide with fewer days of snow cover, a decrease of inflow to the lakes and greater evaporation of water from the lakes. MODIS ESDRs show strong and statistically significant increasing surface temperature (LST) in the GB, a reduction in the number of days of snow cover, and mixed results in ET. ET declined slightly in the more arid parts of the GB due to greater moisture restrictions to evaporation from extended drought, while ET increased in the more-vegetated, wetter, mountainous northeastern parts as temperatures have risen. Severe and costly ecological, human health and economic consequences are expected if the lakes continue to decline as predicted.

land surface temperature↗

Improving our Understanding of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones through Knowledge of the Saharan Air Layer: Hope or Hype?

The existence of the Saharan air layer (SAL), a layer of warm, dry, dusty air that frequently moves westward off of the Saharan desert of Africa and over the tropical Atlantic Ocean, has long been appreciated. As air moves over the desert, it is strongly heated from below, producing a very hot air mass at low levels. Because there is no moisture source over the Sahara, the rise in temperature causes a sharp drop in relative humidity, thus drying the air. In addition, the warm air produces a very strong jet of easterly flow in the middle troposphere called the African easterly jet that is thought to play a critical role in hurricane formation. In recent years, there has been an increased focus on the impact that the SAL has on the formation and evolution of hurricanes in the Atlantic. However, the nature of its impact remains unclear, with some researchers arguing that the SAL amplifies hurricane development and with others arguing that it inhibits it. The argument for positively influencing hurricane development is based upon the fact that the African easterly jet produces the waves that eventually form hurricanes and that it leads to rising motion south of the jet that favors the development of deep thunderstorm clouds. The potential negative impacts of the SAL include 1) low-level vertical wind shear associated with the African easterly jet; 2) warm SAL air aloft, which increases thermodynamic stability and suppresses cloud development; and 3) dry air, which produces cold downdrafts in precipitating regions, thereby removing energy needed for storm development. As part of this recent focus on the SAL and hurricanes (which motivated a 2006 NASA field experiment), there has been little emphasis on the SAL s potential positive influences and almost complete emphasis on its possible negative influences, almost to the point of claims that the SAL is the major suppressing influence on hurricanes in the Atlantic. Multiple NASA satellite data sets (TRMM, MODIS, and AIRS/AMSU) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction global analyses are used to characterize the SAL s properties and evolution in relation to developing hurricanes. The results show that storms generally form on the southern side of the jet, where favorable background rotation is high. The jet often helps to form the northern side of the storms and rarely moves over their inner cores, so jet-induced vertical wind shear does not appear to be a negative influence on developing storms. Warm SAL air is confined to regions north of the jet and generally does not impact the tropical cyclone precipitation south of the jet. Of the three proposed negative influences, dry air appears to be the key influence; however, the presence of dry SAL air is not a good indicator of whether a storm will weaken since many examples of intensifying storms surrounded by such dry air can be found. In addition, a global view of relative humidity shows moisture distributions in other ocean basins that are almost identical to the Atlantic. The dry zones correspond to regions of descending air on the eastern and equatorward sides of semi-permanent oceanic high pressure systems. Thus, the dry air over the Atlantic appears to be primarily a product of the large-scale flow, but with enhanced drying at low levels associated with the Sahara. As a result, we conclude that the SAL is not a major negative influence on hurricanes. It is just one of many possible influences and can be both positive and negative.

Braun, Scott A.↗

Reevaluating the Role of Saharan Air Layer in Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenesis and Evolution

The existence of the Saharan air layer (SAL), a layer of warm, dry, dusty air that frequently moves westward off of the Saharan desert of Africa and over the tropical Atlantic Ocean, has long been appreciated. As air moves over the desert, it is strongly heated from below, producing a very hot air mass at low levels. Because there is no moisture source over the Sahara, the rise in temperature causes a sharp drop in relative humidity, thus drying the air. In addition, the warm air produces a very strong jet of easterly flow in the middle troposphere called the African easterly jet that is thought to play a critical role in hurricane formation. In recent years, there has been an increased focus on the impact that the SAL has on the formation and evolution of hurricanes in the Atlantic. However, the nature of its impact remains unclear, with some researchers arguing that the SAL amplifies hurricane development and with others arguing that it inhibits it. The argument for positively influencing hurricane development is based upon the fact that the African easterly jet provides an energy source for the waves that eventually form hurricanes and that it leads to rising motion south of the jet that favors the development of deep thunderstorm clouds. The potential negative impacts of the SAL include 1) low-level vertical wind shear associated with the African easterly jet; 2) warm SAL air aloft, which increases thermodynamic stability and suppresses cloud development; and 3) dry air, which produces cold downdrafts in precipitating regions, thereby removing energy needed for storm development. As part of this recent focus on the SAL and hurricanes (which motivated a 2006 NASA field experiment), there has been little emphasis on the SAL s potential positive influences and almost complete emphasis on its possible negative influences, almost to the point of claims that the SAL is the major suppressing influence on hurricanes in the Atlantic. In this study, multiple NASA satellite data sets (TRMM, MODIS, CALIPSO, and AIRS/AMSU) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction global analyses are used to see if the proposed negative influences deserve all of the attention they have recently received. The results show that storms generally form on the southern side of the African jet, where favorable background rotation is high. The jet often helps to form the northern side of the storms and is typically stronger in storms that intensify than those that weaken, suggesting that jet-induced vertical wind shear is not a negative influence on developing storms. Warm SAL air is confined to regions north of the jet and generally does not impact the tropical cyclone precipitation south of the jet. A comparison of the environments of strongly strengthening storms and of weakening storms shows no differences in SAL structure, indicating that the SAL has little influence on whether storms weaken or intensify. The large-scale flow at upper levels above the SAL was found to be most important, with the environment of strengthening storms having very little vertical wind shear and also favoring more expansive outflow from the storm. The SAL is shown to occur in a large-scale environment that is already characteristically dry as a result of large-scale subsidence (sinking air motions). Strong surface heating and deep dry convective mixing enhance dryness at low levels, but moisten the air at midlevels. Therefore, mid-to-upper-level dryness is not a defining characteristic of the SAL, but is instead a signature of subsidence. As a result, we conclude that the SAL is not the major negative influence on hurricanes that recent studies have emphasized. It is just one of many possible influences and can be both positive and negative.

Braun, Scott A.↗

Modelling the Future Hydroclimatology of the Lower Fraser River and its Impacts on the Spawning Migration Survival of Sockeye Salmon

Short episodic high temperature events can be lethal for migrating adult Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.). We downscaled temperatures for the Fraser River, British Columbia to evaluate the impact of climate warming on the frequency of exceeding thermal thresholds associated with salmon migratory success. Alarmingly, a modest 1.0 C increase in average summer water temperature over 100 years (1981-2000 to 2081-2100) tripled the number of days per year exceeding critical salmonid thermal thresholds (i.e. 19.0 C). Refined thresholds for two populations (Gates Creek and Weaver Creek) of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) were defined using physiological constraint models based on aerobic scope. While extreme temperatures leading to complete aerobic collapse remained unlikely under our warming scenario, both populations were increasingly forced to migrate upriver at reduced levels of aerobic performance (e.g. in 80% of future simulations, => 90% of salmon encountered temperatures exceeding population specific thermal optima for maximum aerobic scope; T(sub opt)) = 16.3 C for Gates Creek and T(sub sopt)=14.5 C for Weaver Creek). Assuming recent changes to river entry timing persist, we also predicted dramatic increases in the probability of freshwater mortality for Weaver Creek salmon due to reductions in aerobic, and general physiological, performance (e.g. in 42% of future simulations =>50% of Weaver Creek fish exceeded temperature thresholds associated with 0 - 60% of maximum aerobic scope). Potential for adaptation via directional selection on run-timing was more evident for the Weaver Creek population. Early entry Weaver Creek fish experienced 25% (range: 15 - 31%) more suboptimal temperatures than late entrants, compared with an 8% difference (range: 0 - 17%) between early and late Gates Creek fish. Our results emphasize the need to consider daily temperature variability in association with population-specific differences in behaviour and physiological constraints when forecasting impacts of climate change on migratory survival of aquatic species.

Hague, M. J.↗

The Carbonates in ALH 84001 Record the Evolution of the Martian Atmosphere Through Multiple Formation Events

Current Martian conditions restrict the presence of liquid water due to low temperatures (approx 210K), a thin atmosphere (approx 7mb), and intense UV radiation. However, past conditions on Mars may have been different with the possibility that the ancient Martian climate was warm and wet with a dense CO2 atmosphere. The cycling of carbon on Mars through atmospheric CO2 and carbonate minerals is critical for deciphering its climate history. In particular stable isotopes contained in carbonates can provide information of their origin and formation environment as well as possibly hinting at the composition of global reservoirs such as atmospheric CO2. Martian meteorite ALH 84001 contains widely studied carbonate rosettes that have been dated to approx. 3.9 Ga and have been used to interpret climatic conditions present at that time. However, there is mount-ing evidence for multiple episodes of carbonate formation in ALH 84001 with potentially distinct isotopic compositions. This study seeks to tease out these different carbonate assemblages using stepped phosphoric acid dissolution and analysis of carbon and triple oxygen stable isotopes. In addition, we report SIMS analyses of the delta O-18 several petrographically unusual carbonate phases in the meteorite.

Shaheen, R.↗

Aerosols Delay the Emergence of Greenhouse Gas Forcing on 21st Century South Asian Monsoon Precipitation By Several Decades

Anthropogenic aerosols (AERs) affect several aspects of the climate system across the world through radiative forcing and microphysical effects. These influences are particularly strong across South Asia, where AER concentrations are highest and further projected to increase in coming decades. Using large ensemble experiments from Earth system model, we examine how AERs shape the evolution of seasonal precipitation over South Asia inlate 20th century and 21st century climate in the presence of rising greenhouse gases (GHGs) concentrations. We find that AERs strongly reduce monsoon precipitation, moderately reduce post-monsoon precipitation, and negligibly influence pre-monsoon precipitation. Consequently, AERs delay the emergence of GHG-forced increases in precipitation by ~5 decades in the monsoon season and ~1 decade in the post-monsoon season. However, GHGs are projected to outpace the influence of AERs by mid 21st century, causing a steep intensification of monsoon and post-monsoon precipitation. We further show that local AERs have the strongest influence on precipitation in the monsoon and post monsoon seasons in the near-future (2020-2049). However, the contribution from remote AERs changes is also important in shaping the monsoon precipitation changes over northwestern South Asia. Further, the influence of local AERs monsoon precipitation remains stationary throughout the 21st century, indicating the insensitivity of relationship between local AOD and precipitation to the projected warming. A better understanding of aerosol-climate interactions and associated precipitation responses in is pertinent for policymakers to address the critical aspect of regional consequences over South Asia induced by externally forced climate change.

Aerosols↗

Small Valleys Networks on Mars: The Glacial Meltwater Channel Networks of Devon Island, Nunavut Territory, Arctic Canada, as Possible Analogs

Small valley networks are perhaps the clearest evidence for episodes of sustained fluid erosion by water on Mars. While small valley formation has occurred even in Amazonian times, notably on the flanks of some volcanoes, most small valley networks on Mars are associated with the heavily cratered Noachian terrains and are thought to be as old as these terrains. We discuss here the recent identification of glacial meltwater channel networks on Devon Island, Nunavut Territory, Arctic Canada, as possible analogs for many small valley networks seen on Mars. A meltwater channel network interpretation for the martian networks may help solve critical problems plaguing more classical interpretations of their origin such as surface runoff following precipitation or groundwater release, including the need for warm climatic conditions. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Lee, Pascal↗

Variation in Nest Temperatures of the American Alligator Found on the Kennedy Space Center Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge

Information on nest temperatures of the American Alligator (Alligator mississippiensis) constructed in the wild is limited. Nesting temperatures during a critical thermal sensitive period determine the sex of alligators and are therefore critical in establishing the sex biases in recruitment efforts of alligators within a given community. Nest components, varying environmental conditions, and global warming could have a significant impact on nest temperatures, thus affecting future generations of a given population. One hundred and seventy four programmable thermistors were inserted into fifty eight nests from 2010 through 2015 nesting cycles. Three thermistors were placed inside each nest cavity (one on top of the eggs, one in the middle of the eggs, and one at the bottom of the clutch of the eggs) to collect temperature profiles in the incubation chamber and throughout the entire incubation period. One thermistor was also placed near or above these nests to obtain an ambient air temperature profile. Once retrieved, data from these thermistors were downloaded to examine temperature profiles throughout the incubation period as well as during the period of sexual determination. These data would help establish survival rates related to nest temperature and predict sex ratio of recruited neonates at the Kennedy Space Center. Over three million temperatures have been recorded since 2010 for the alligator thermistor study giving us insight to the recruitment efforts found here. Precipitation was the largest influence on nesting temperatures outside of daily photoperiod, with immediate changes of up to eight degrees Celsius.

Alligator↗