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Relationship Between the Expansion Speed and Radial Speed of CMEs Confirmed Using Quadrature Observations from SOHO and STEREO

It is difficult to measure the true speed of Earth-directed CMEs from a coronagraph along the Sun-Earth line because of the occulting disk. However, the expansion speed (the speed with which the CME appears to spread in the sky plane) can be measured by such coronagraph. In order to convert the expansion speed to radial speed (which is important for space weather applications) one can use empirical relationship between the two that assumes an average width for all CMEs. If we have the width information from quadrature observations, we can confirm the relationship between expansion and radial speeds derived by Gopalswamy et al. (2009, CEAB, 33, 115,2009). The STEREO spacecraft were in quadrature with SOHO (STEREO-A ahead of Earth by 87 and STEREO-B 94 behind Earth) on 2011 February 15, when a fast Earth-directed CME occurred. The CME was observed as a halo by the Large-Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) on board SOHO. The sky-plane speed was measured by SOHO/LASCO as the expansion speed, while the radial speed was measured by STEREO-A and STEREO-B. In addition, STEREO-A and STEREO-B images measured the width of the CME, which is unknown from Earth view. From the SOHO and STEREO measurements, we confirm the relationship between the expansion speed (Vexp ) and radial speed (Vrad ) derived previously from geometrical considerations (Gopalswamy et al. 2009): Vrad = 1/2 (1 + cot w) Vexp, where w is the half width of the CME. STEREO-B images of the CME, we found that CME had a full width of 75 degrees, so w = 37.5 degrees. This gives the relation as Vrad = 1.15 Vexp. From LASCO observations, we measured Vexp = 897 km/s, so we get the radial speed as 1033 km/s. Direct measurement of radial speed from STEREO gives 945 km/s (STEREO-A) and 1057 km/s (STEREO-B). These numbers are different only by 2.3% and 8.5% (for STEREO-A and STEREO-B, respectively) from the computed value.

Gopalswamy, Nat↗

V and V Efforts of Auroral Precipitation Models: Preliminary Results

Auroral precipitation models have been valuable both in terms of space weather applications and space science research. Yet very limited testing has been performed regarding model performance. A variety of auroral models are available, including empirical models that are parameterized by geomagnetic indices or upstream solar wind conditions, now casting models that are based on satellite observations, or those derived from physics-based, coupled global models. In this presentation, we will show our preliminary results regarding V&V efforts of some of the models.

Zheng, Yihua↗

Automatic Determination of the Conic Coronal Mass Ejection Model Parameters

Characterization of the three-dimensional structure of solar transients using incomplete plane of sky data is a difficult problem whose solutions have potential for societal benefit in terms of space weather applications. In this paper transients are characterized in three dimensions by means of conic coronal mass ejection (CME) approximation. A novel method for the automatic determination of cone model parameters from observed halo CMEs is introduced. The method uses both standard image processing techniques to extract the CME mass from white-light coronagraph images and a novel inversion routine providing the final cone parameters. A bootstrap technique is used to provide model parameter distributions. When combined with heliospheric modeling, the cone model parameter distributions will provide direct means for ensemble predictions of transient propagation in the heliosphere. An initial validation of the automatic method is carried by comparison to manually determined cone model parameters. It is shown using 14 halo CME events that there is reasonable agreement, especially between the heliocentric locations of the cones derived with the two methods. It is argued that both the heliocentric locations and the opening half-angles of the automatically determined cones may be more realistic than those obtained from the manual analysis

Pulkkinen, A.↗

Recent Advances in Improvement of Forecast Skill and Understanding Climate Processes Using AIRS Version-5 Products

AIRS/AMSU is the state of the art infrared and microwave atmospheric sounding system flying aboard EOS Aqua. These observations, covering the period September 2002 until the present, have been analyzed using the AIRS Science Team Version-5 retrieval algorithm. AIRS is a high spectral resolution infrared grating spectrometer with spect,ral coverage from 650 per centimeter extending to 2660 per centimeter, with low noise and a spectral resolving power of 2400. A brief overview of the AIRS Version-5 retrieval procedure will be presented, including the AIRS channels used in different steps in the retrieval process. Many researchers have used these products to make significant advances in both climate and weather applications. Recent significant results of these experiments will be presented, including results showing that 1) assimilation of AIRS Quality Controlled temperature profiles into a General Circulation Model (GCM) significantly improves the ability to predict storm tracks of intense precipitation events; and 2) anomaly time-series of Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) computed using AIRS sounding products closely match those determined from the CERES instrument, and furthermore explain that the phenomenon that global and especially tropical mean OLR have been decreasing since September 2002 is a result of El Nino/La Nina oscillations during this period.

Susskind, Joel↗

Transition to Operations Plans for GPM Datasets

Founded in 2002 at the National Space Science Technology Center at Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, AL. Focused on transitioning unique NASA and NOAA observations and research capabilities to the operational weather community to improve short-term weather forecasts on a regional and local scale. NASA directed funding; NOAA funding from Proving Grounds (PG). Demonstrate capabilities experimental products to weather applications and societal benefit to prepare forecasters for the use of data from next generation of operational satellites. Objective of this poster is to highlight SPoRT's research to operations (R2O) paradigm and provide examples of work done by the team with legacy instruments relevant to GPM in order to promote collaborations with groups developing GPM products.

Zavodsky, Bradley↗

Use of NASA Near Real-Time and Archived Satellite Data to Support Disaster Assessment

NASA's Short‐term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center partners with the NWS to provide near realtime data in support of a variety of weather applications, including disasters. SPoRT supports NASA's Applied Sciences Program: Disasters focus area by developing techniques that will aid the disaster monitoring, response, and assessment communities. SPoRT has explored a variety of techniques for utilizing archived and near real‐time NASA satellite data. An increasing number of end‐users - such as the NWS Damage Assessment Toolkit (DAT) - access geospatial data via a Web Mapping Service (WMS). SPoRT has begun developing open‐standard Geographic Information Systems (GIS) data sets via WMS to respond to end‐user needs.

McGrath, Kevin M.↗

New Global Electron Density Observations from GPS-RO in the D- and E-Region Ionosphere

A novel retrieval technique is developed for electron density (N(sub e)) in the D- and E-region (80-120 km) using the high-quality 50-Hz GPS radio occultation (GPS-RO) phase measurements. The new algorithm assumes a slow, linear variation in the F-region background when the GPS-RO passes through the D- and E-region, and extracts the N(sub e) profiles at 80-130 km from the phase advance signal caused by N(sub e). Unlike the conventional Abel function, the new approach produces a sharp N(sub e) weighting function in the lower ionosphere, and the N(sub e) retrievals are in good agreement with the IRI (International Reference Ionosphere) model in terms of monthly maps, zonal means and diurnal variations. The daytime GPS-RO N(sub e) profiles can be well characterized by the alpha-Chapman function of three parameters (N(sub mE), h(sub mE) and H), showing that the bottom of E-region is deepening and sharpening towards the summer pole. At high latitudes the monthly GPS-RO N(sub e) maps at 80-120 km reveal clear enhancement in the auroral zones, more prominent at night, as a result of energetic electron precipitation (EEP) from the outer radiation belt. The D-/E-region auroral N(sub e) is strongly correlated with K(sub p) on a daily basis. The new N(sub e) data allow further comprehensive analyses of the sporadic E (E(sub s)) phenomena in connection with the background N(sub e) in the E-region. The layered (2-10 km) and fluctuated (less than 2 km) E(sub s) components, namely N(sub e_Layer) than N(sub e_Pert), are extracted with respect to the background N( sub e_Region) on a profile-by-profile basis. The N(sub e_Layer) component has a strong but highly-refined peak at approximately 105 km, with an amplitude smaller than N(sub e_Region) approximately by an order of magnitude. The N(sub e_Pert) component, which was studied extensively in the past, is approximately 2 orders of magnitude weaker than N(sub e_Layer). Both N(sub e_Layer) and N(sub e_Pert) are subject to significant diurnal and semidiurnal variations, showing downward progression with local time in amplitude. The 11-year solar cycle dominates the N(sub e) interannual variations, showing larger N(sub e_Region) and N(sub e_Layer) but smaller N(sub e_Pert) amplitudes in the solar maximum years. Enhanced Ne profiles are often observed in the polar winter, showing good correlation with solar proton events (SPEs) and geomagnetic activity. The new methodology offers great potential for retrieving low N(sub e) in the D-region, where radio propagation and communication blackouts can occur due to enhanced ionization. For space weather applications it is recommended for GPSRO operations to raise the top of high-rate data acquisition to approximately 140 km in the future.

GSP-R↗

Gaining the most utility from our geospace observational system: Network analysis of total electron content as a means to understand space weather to the point of prediction

We present the first network analysis of interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) clock angle dependent, high-latitude, hemispheric-specific total electron content (TEC) data. We examine network parameters to describe spatio-temporal correlations in the TEC data for January 2016. We find that significant network structure exists distinguishing the dayside and nightside ionosphere, and specific features in the high-latitudes (cusp/ionospheric footpoints of magnetospheric boundary layers, polar cap, and auroral zone), and that these features vary with IMF clock angle. In this brief summary paper, we provide proof of concept results and identify important areas of future research, providing a basis for the discussion of network analysis and machine learning approaches for space weather applications.

Malik, Nishant↗

Single Field-of-View Sounding Atmospheric Products

The Single Field-of-view Sounder Atmospheric Products (SiFSAP) answer the need for a novel high spatial resolution atmospheric data product for major hyper-spectral infrared (IR) sounder missions. SiFSAP include a complete set of atmospheric vertical profiles, cloud, and surface properties, which are physically retrieved from top-of-atmosphere (TOA) spectral radiances under all-sky conditions via a rigorously defined radiative transfer relationship. By using a state-of-art fast radiative transfer model and a carefully designed optimal estimation based physical retrieval scheme, the SiFSAP algorithm ensures both an ultra-fast data processing speed needed for operational weather applications and the radiometric consistency desired by long-term climate studies. SiFSAP supplement existing operational products by providing data at the native resolution of the sounder instruments, the direct and accurate retrieval of cloud scattering properties, and the establishment of ‘radiance closure.’

Wan Wu↗

Single Field-of-View Sounding Atmospheric Products

The Single Field-of-view Sounder Atmospheric Products (SiFSAP) answer the need for a novel high spatial resolution atmospheric data product for major hyper-spectral infrared (IR) sounder missions. SiFSAP include a complete set of atmospheric vertical profiles, cloud, and surface properties, which are physically retrieved from top-of-atmosphere (TOA) spectral radiances under all-sky conditions via a rigorously defined radiative transfer relationship. By using a state-of-art fast radiative transfer model and a carefully designed optimal estimation based physical retrieval scheme, the SiFSAP algorithm ensures both an ultra-fast data processing speed needed for operational weather applications and the radiometric consistency desired by long-term climate studies. SiFSAP supplement existing operational products by providing data at the native spatial resolution of the sounder instruments, the direct and accurate retrieval of cloud scattering properties, and the establishment of ‘radiance closure.’

single-field-of-view, retrieval, hyperspectral sou↗

The Electron Heat Fluxes Associated with Electron Precipitation in the Region of Diffuse Aurora

Electron heat flux that comes from the magnetosphere to the upper ionospheric altitudes controls the value of electron temperature in the core plasma, and, as a result, the total electron density content that is required for different kinds of space weather applications. Knowing the thermal electron heat flux at the upper ionospheric boundaries is the Achilles' heel of all ionospheric models. Such a thermal heat flux setting is especially difficult to justify in the region of the diffuse aurora that is connected to a large energy reservoir of electrons with energies of a few kiloelectron volts, the Earth's plasma sheet, where magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling processes are strongly interconnected. We use the simulated heat flux provided by SuperThermal Electron Transport (STET) code to estimate electron temperatures at the upper ionospheric altitudes and compare these results with corresponding observations from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program satellite during Saint Patrick's Days 2013 and 2015 Geomagnetic Storms.

George V. Khazanov↗

Current and Future Applications of Multispectral (RGB) Satellite Imagery for Weather Analysis and Forecasting Applications

Current and future satellite sensors provide remotely sensed quantities from a variety of wavelengths ranging from the visible to the passive microwave, from both geostationary and low ]Earth orbits. The NASA Short ]term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has a long history of providing multispectral imagery from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard NASA fs Terra and Aqua satellites in support of NWS forecast office activities. Products from MODIS have recently been extended to include a broader suite of multispectral imagery similar to those developed by EUMETSAT, based upon the spectral channels available from the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) aboard METEOSAT ]9. This broader suite includes products that discriminate between air mass types associated with synoptic ]scale features, assists in the identification of dust, and improves upon paired channel difference detection of fog and low cloud events. Future instruments will continue the availability of these products and also expand upon current capabilities. The Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) on GOES ]R will improve the spectral, spatial, and temporal resolution of our current geostationary capabilities, and the recent launch of the Suomi National Polar ]Orbiting Partnership (S ]NPP) carries instruments such as the Visible Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), the Cross ]track Infrared Sounder (CrIS), and the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS), which have unrivaled spectral and spatial resolution, as precursors to the JPSS era (i.e., the next generation of polar orbiting satellites. New applications from VIIRS extend multispectral composites available from MODIS and SEVIRI while adding new capabilities through incorporation of additional CrIS channels or information from the Near Constant Contrast or gDay ]Night Band h, which provides moonlit reflectance from clouds and detection of fires or city lights. This presentation will present a review of SPoRT, CIRA, and NRL collaborations regarding multispectral satellite imagery and recent applications within the operational forecasting environment

Molthan, Andrew L.↗

Projected Applications of a "Weather in a Box" Computing System at the NASA Short-Term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT)'s new "Weather in a Box" resources will provide weather research and forecast modeling capabilities for real-time application. Model output will provide additional forecast guidance and research into the impacts of new NASA satellite data sets and software capabilities. By combining several research tools and satellite products, SPoRT can generate model guidance that is strongly influenced by unique NASA contributions.

Jedlovec, Gary J.↗

Recent Applications of Space Weather Research to NASA Space Missions

Marshall Space Flight Center s Space Environments Team is committed to applying the latest research in space weather to NASA programs. We analyze data from an extensive set of space weather satellites in order to define the space environments for some of NASA s highest profile programs. Our goal is to ensure that spacecraft are designed to be successful in all environments encountered during their missions. We also collaborate with universities, industry, and other federal agencies to provide analysis of anomalies and operational impacts to current missions. This presentation is a summary of some of our most recent applications of space weather data, including the definition of the space environments for the initial phases of the Space Launch System (SLS), acquisition of International Space Station (ISS) frame potential variations during geomagnetic storms, and Nascap-2K charging analyses.

Willis, Emily M.↗

Recent Applications of Space Weather Research to NASA Space Missions

Marshall Space Flight Center s Space Environments Team is committed to applying the latest research in space weather to NASA programs. We analyze data from an extensive set of space weather satellites in order to define the space environments for some of NASA s highest profile programs. Our goal is to ensure that spacecraft are designed to be successful in all environments encountered during their missions. We also collaborate with universities, industry, and other federal agencies to provide analysis of anomalies and operational impacts to current missions. This presentation is a summary of some of our most recent applications of space weather data, including the definition of the space environments for the initial phases of the Space Launch System (SLS), acquisition of International Space Station (ISS) frame potential variations during geomagnetic storms, and Nascap-2K charging analyses.

Willis, Emily M.↗

NASA GSFC Space Weather Center - Innovative Space Weather Dissemination: Web-Interfaces, Mobile Applications, and More

The NASA GSFC Space Weather Center (http://swc.gsfc.nasa.gov) is committed to providing forecasts, alerts, research, and educational support to address NASA's space weather needs - in addition to the needs of the general space weather community. We provide a host of services including spacecraft anomaly resolution, historical impact analysis, real-time monitoring and forecasting, custom space weather alerts and products, weekly summaries and reports, and most recently - video casts. There are many challenges in providing accurate descriptions of past, present, and expected space weather events - and the Space Weather Center at NASA GSFC employs several innovative solutions to provide access to a comprehensive collection of both observational data, as well as space weather model/simulation data. We'll describe the challenges we've faced with managing hundreds of data streams, running models in real-time, data storage, and data dissemination. We'll also highlight several systems and tools that are utilized by the Space Weather Center in our daily operations, all of which are available to the general community as well. These systems and services include a web-based application called the Integrated Space Weather Analysis System (iSWA http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov), two mobile space weather applications for both IOS and Android devices, an external API for web-service style access to data, google earth compatible data products, and a downloadable client-based visualization tool.

Maddox, Marlo↗

Developing Dual Polarization Applications For 45th Weather Squadron's (45 WS) New Weather Radar: A Cooperative Project With The National Space Science and Technology Center (NSSTC)

A new weather radar is being acquired for use in support of America s space program at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, NASA Kennedy Space Center, and Patrick AFB on the east coast of central Florida. This new radar includes dual polarization capability, which has not been available to 45 WS previously. The 45 WS has teamed with NSSTC with funding from NASA Marshall Spaceflight Flight Center to improve their use of this new dual polarization capability when it is implemented operationally. The project goals include developing a temperature profile adaptive scan strategy, developing training materials, and developing forecast techniques and tools using dual polarization products. The temperature profile adaptive scan strategy will provide the scan angles that provide the optimal compromise between volume scan rate, vertical resolution, phenomena detection, data quality, and reduced cone-of-silence for the 45 WS mission. The mission requirements include outstanding detection of low level boundaries for thunderstorm prediction, excellent vertical resolution in the atmosphere electrification layer between 0 C and -20 C for lightning forecasting and Lightning Launch Commit Criteria evaluation, good detection of anvil clouds for Lightning Launch Commit Criteria evaluation, reduced cone-of-silence, fast volume scans, and many samples per pulse for good data quality. The training materials will emphasize the appropriate applications most important to the 45 WS mission. These include forecasting the onset and cessation of lightning, forecasting convective winds, and hopefully the inference of electrical fields in clouds. The training materials will focus on annotated radar imagery based on products available to the 45 WS. Other examples will include time sequenced radar products without annotation to simulate radar operations. This will reinforce the forecast concepts and also allow testing of the forecasters. The new dual polarization techniques and tools will focus on the appropriate applications for the 45 WS mission. These include forecasting the onset of lightning, the cessation of lightning, convective winds, and hopefully the inference of electrical fields in clouds. This presentation will report on the results achieved so far in the project.

Roeder, W.P.↗