Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Weather forecast uncertainty”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2007

Comparison of Different Global Information Sources Used in Surface Radiative Flux Calculation: Radiative Properties of the Surface

Direct estimates of surface radiative fluxes that resolve regional and weather-scale variabilty over the whole globe with reasonable accuracy have only become possible with the advent of extensive global, mostly satellite, datasets within the past couple of decades. The accuracy of these fluxes, estimated to be about 10-15 W per square meter is largely limited by the accuracy of the input datasets. The leading uncertainties in the surface fluxes are no longer predominantly induced by clouds but are now as much associated with uncertainties in the surface and near-surface atmospheric properties. This study presents a fuller, more quantitative evaluation of the uncertainties for the surface albedo and emissivity and surface skin temperatures by comparing the main available global datasets from the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer product, the NASA Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Surface Radiation Budget project, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP), the Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, NOAA/NASA Pathfinder Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer project, NOAA Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature Analysis and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Image project. The datasets are, in practice, treated as an ensemble of realizations of the actual climate such that their differences represent an estimate of the uncertainty in their measurements because we do not possess global truth datasets for these quantities. The results are globally representative and may be taken as a generalization of our previous ISCCP-based uncertainty estimates for the input datasets. Surface properties have the primary role in determining the surface upward shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) flux. From this study, the following conclusions are obtained. Although land surface albedos in the near near-infrared remain poorly constrained (highly uncertain), they do not cause too much error in total surface SW fluxes; the more subtle regional and seasonal variations associated with vegetation and snow are still on doubt. The uncertainty of the broadband black-sky SW albedo for land surface from this study is about 7%, which can easily induce 5-10 W per square meter uncertainty in (upwelling) surface SW flux estimates. Even though available surface (broadband) LW emissivity datasets differ significantly (3%-5% uncertainty), this disagreement is confined to wavelengths greater than 20 micrometers so that there is little practical effect (1-3 W per square meters) on the surface upwelling LW fluxes. The surface skin temperature is one of two leading factors that cause problems with surface LW fluxes. Even though the differences among the various datasets are generally only 2-4 K, this can easily cause 10-15 W per square meter uncertainty in calculated surface (upwelling) LW fluxes. Significant improvements could be obtained for surface LW flux calculations by improving the retrievals of (in order of decreasing importance): (1) surface skin temperature, (2) surface air and near-surface-layer temperature, (3) column precipitable water amount and (4) broadband emissivity. And for surface SW fluxes, improvements could be obtained (excluding improved cloud treatment) by improving the retrievals of (1) aerosols (from our sensitivity studies but not discussed in this work), and (2) surface (black-sky) albedo, of which, NIR part of the spectrum has much larger uncertainty.

Zhang, Yuanchong↗
NASA NTRS2015

Simulations of Cloud-Radiation Interaction Using Large-Scale Forcing Derived from the CINDY/DYNAMO Northern Sounding Array

The recently completed CINDY/DYNAMO field campaign observed two Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) events in the equatorial Indian Ocean from October to December 2011. Prior work has indicated that the moist static energy anomalies in these events grew and were sustained to a significant extent by radiative feedbacks. We present here a study of radiative fluxes and clouds in a set of cloud-resolving simulations of these MJO events. The simulations are driven by the large-scale forcing data set derived from the DYNAMO northern sounding array observations, and carried out in a doubly periodic domain using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Simulated cloud properties and radiative fluxes are compared to those derived from the S-PolKa radar and satellite observations. To accommodate the uncertainty in simulated cloud microphysics, a number of single-moment (1M) and double-moment (2M) microphysical schemes in the WRF model are tested. The 1M schemes tend to underestimate radiative flux anomalies in the active phases of the MJO events, while the 2M schemes perform better, but can overestimate radiative flux anomalies. All the tested microphysics schemes exhibit biases in the shapes of the histograms of radiative fluxes and radar reflectivity. Histograms of radiative fluxes and brightness temperature indicate that radiative biases are not evenly distributed; the most significant bias occurs in rainy areas with OLR less than 150 W/ cu sq in the 2M schemes. Analysis of simulated radar reflectivities indicates that this radiative flux uncertainty is closely related to the simulated stratiform cloud coverage. Single-moment schemes underestimate stratiform cloudiness by a factor of 2, whereas 2M schemes simulate much more stratiform cloud.

Indian Ocean↗
NASA NTRS2004

Cone Model for Halo CMEs: Application to Space Weather Forecasting

In this study, we present an innovative analytical method to determine the angular width and propagation orientation of halo Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs). The relation of CME actual speed with apparent speed and its components measured at different position angle has been investigated. The present work is based on the cone model proposed by Zhao et al. We have improved this model by: (1) eliminating the ambiguity via a new analytical approach, (2) using direct measurements of projection onto the plane of the sky (POS), and (3) determining the actual radial speeds from projection speeds at different position angles to clarify the uncertainty of projection speeds in previous empirical models. Our analytical approach allows us to use coronagraph data to determine accurately the geometrical features of POS projections, such as major axis, minor axis, and the displacement of the center of its projection, and to determine the angular width and orientation of a given halo CME. Our approach allows for the first time the determination of the actual CME speed, width, and source location by using coronagraph data quantitatively and consistently. The method greatly enhances the accuracy of the derived geometrical and kinematical properties of halo CMEs, and can be used to optimize Space Weather forecasts. The applied model predications are in good agreement with observations.

Xie, Hong↗
NASA NTRS2015

Improving High-Resolution Weather Forecasts using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with an Updated Kain-Fritsch Scheme

Efforts to improve the prediction accuracy of high resolution (1-10 km) surface precipitation distribution and variability are of vital importance to local aspects of air pollution, wet deposition, and regional climate. However, precipitation biases and errors can occur at these spatial scales due to uncertainties in initial meteorological conditions and/or grid-scale cloud microphysics schemes. In particular, it is still unclear to what extent a subgrid-scale convection scheme could be modified to bring in scale-awareness for improving high-resolution short-term precipitation forecasts in the WRF model. To address these issues, we introduced scale-aware parameterized cloud dynamics for high-resolution forecasts by making several changes to the Kain-Fritsch (KF) convective parameterization scheme in the WRF model. These changes include subgrid-scale cloud-radiation interactions, a dynamic adjustment timescale, impacts of cloud updraft mass fluxes on grid-scale vertical velocity, and lifting condensation level-based entrainment methodology that includes scale dependency. A series of 48-hour retrospective forecasts using a combination of three treatments of convection (KF, updated KF, and the use of no cumulus parameterization), two cloud microphysics schemes and two types of initial condition datasets were performed over the U.S. southern Great Plains on 9- and 3-km grid spacings during the summers of 2002 and 2010. Results indicate that (1) the source of initial conditions play a key role in high-resolution precipitation forecasting, and (2) our updated KF scheme greatly alleviates the excessive precipitation at 9-km grid spacing and improves results at 3-km grid spacing as well. Overall, we found that the updated KF scheme incorporated into a high-resolution model does provide better forecasts for precipitation location and intensity.

convective parameterization↗
NASA NTRS2011

The NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Mission - Algorithm and Cal/Val Activities and Synergies with SMOS and Other L-Band Missions

NASA's Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission, planned for launch in late 2014, has as its key measurement objective the frequent, global mapping of near-surface soil moisture and its freeze-thaw state. SMAP soil moisture and freeze/thaw measurements at 10 km and 3 km resolutions respectively, would enable significantly improved estimates of water, energy and carbon transfers between the land and atmosphere. Soil moisture control of these fluxes is a key factor in the performance of atmospheric models used for weather forecasts and climate projections Soil moisture measurements are also of great importance in assessing floods and for monitoring drought. In addition, observations of soil moisture and freeze/thaw timing over the boreal latitudes can help reduce uncertainties in quantifying the global carbon balance. The SMAP measurement concept utilizes an L-band radar and radiometer sharing a rotating 6-meter mesh reflector antenna. The SMAP radiometer and radar flight hardware and ground processing designs are incorporating approaches to identify and mitigate potential terrestrial radio frequency interference (RFI). The radar and radiometer instruments are planned to operate in a 680 km polar orbit, viewing the surface at a constant 40-degree incidence angle with a 1000-km swath width, providing 3-day global coverage. Data from the instruments would yield global maps of soil moisture and freeze/thaw state to be provided at 10 km and 3 km resolutions respectively, every two to three days. Plans are to provide also a radiometer-only soil moisture product at 40-km spatial resolution. This product and the underlying brightness temperatures have characteristics similar to those provided by the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission. As a result, there are unique opportunities for common data product development and continuity between the two missions. SMAP also has commonalities with other satellite missions having L-band radiometer and/or radar sensors applicable to soil moisture measurement, such as Aquarius, SAO COM, and ALOS-2. The algorithms and data products for SMAP are being developed in the SMAP Science Data System (SDS) Testbed. The algorithms are developed and evaluated in the SDS Testbed using simulated SMAP observations as well as observational data from current airborne and spaceborne L-band sensors including SMOS. The SMAP project is developing a Calibration and Validation (Cal/Val) Plan that is designed to support algorithm development (pre-launch) and data product validation (post-launch). A key component of the Cal/Val Plan is the identification, characterization, and instrumentation of sites that can be used to calibrate and validate the sensor data (Level I) and derived geophysical products (Level 2 and higher). In this presentation we report on the development status of the SMAP data product algorithms, and the planning and implementation of the SMAP Cal/Val program. Several components of the SMAP algorithm development and Cal/Val plans have commonality with those of SMOS, and for this reason there are shared activities and resources that can be utilized between the missions, including in situ networks, ancillary data sets, and long-term monitoring sites.

Njoku, Eni↗
NASA NTRS2014

The Experimental Regional Ensemble Forecast System (ExREF): Its Use in NWS Forecast Operations and Preliminary Verification

The Experimental Regional Ensemble Forecast (ExREF) system is a tool for the development and testing of new Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) methodologies. ExREF is run in near‐realtime by the Global Systems Division (GSD) of the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) and its products are made available through a website, an ftp site, and via the Unidata Local Data Manager (LDM). The ExREF domain covers most of North America and has 9‐km horizontal grid spacing. The ensemble has eight members, all employing WRF‐ARW. The ensemble uses a variety of initial conditions from LAPS and the Global Forecasting System (GFS) and multiple boundary conditions from the GFS ensemble. Additionally, a diversity of physical parameterizations is used to increase ensemble spread and to account for the uncertainty in forecasting extreme precipitation events. ExREF has been a component of the Hydrometeorology Testbed (HMT) NWP suite in the 2012‐2013 and 2013‐2014 winters. A smaller domain covering just the West Coast was created to minimize band‐width consumption for the NWS. This smaller domain has and is being distributed to the National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Office and California Nevada River Forecast Center in Sacramento, California, where it is ingested into the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS I and II) to provide guidance on the forecasting of extreme precipitation events. This paper will review the cooperative effort employed by NOAA ESRL, NASA SPoRT (Short‐term Prediction Research and Transition Center), and the NWS to facilitate the ingest and display of ExREF data utilizing the AWIPS I and II D2D and GFE (Graphical Software Editor) software. Within GFE is a very useful verification software package called BoiVer that allows the NWS to utilize the River Forecast Center's 4 km gridded QPE to compare with all operational NWP models 6‐hr QPF along with the ExREF mean 6‐hr QPF so the forecasters can build confidence in the use of the ExREF in preparing their rainfall forecasts. Preliminary results will be presented.

Reynolds, David↗
NASA NTRS2002

Large Forecast Centers Using TRMM Real-Time Data

As a part of NASA's Earth System Enterprise, The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) seeks to understand the mechanisms through which changes in tropical rainfall influence global circulation. Over the past 3 years, TRMM has contributed significantly towards reducing uncertainty in satellite estimates of rainfall in the Tropics, where almost 67% of the Earth's rain falls. TRMM has provided knowledge related to the climatology, seasonality, and variation of tropical rainfall; the mesoscale structure of rain-producing systems, and the physics of precipitation. As with many NASA missions, however, TRMM has provided surprising new knowledge and insight in scientific areas ranging from hurricane diagnosis/prediction to weather forecasting. Examples of current and future plans for use of TRMM data by operational weather centers will be discussed.

Shepherd, James Marshall↗
NASA NTRS2003

Definition of International GPM GV Research Program

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission will consist of a constellation of rain-measuring satellites, the main member of which (the core satellite) will serve as the measurement reference to the other members of the constellation. The core satellite is being developed jointly by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the newly-named Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA -- previously NASDA) along with its government partner, the Communications Research Laboratory (CRL). The GPM mission was proposed as a follow-up mission to the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) by both NASA and NASDA based on the unparalleled scientific success of TRMM, and has recently been joined by the European Space Agency (ESA) via its formulation of the European GPM mission (i.e., EGPM). GPM is an ambitious mission designed to produce accurate and frequent global observations of precipitation (both rain and snow) made possible by replacing the TRMM satellite with the new core satellite carrying an advanced radar-radiometer system, and serving as the centerpiece for the constellation of some eight (8) additional satellites being provided through international cooperation. The core satellite is to be flown up to high latitudes (inclined some 65-70 degrees), and will carry a Ku/Ka-band, nadir-scanning, dual-frequency precipitation radar (DPR) that is being developed by JAXA and CRL, along with a large aperture, extended frequency-range, conically-scanning passive microwave radiometer being developed by NASA and its industrial partners. Each constellation satellite will also carry some type of multi-channel passive microwave radiometer (as well as a multi-beam Ka-band radar in the case of EGPM) whose rain estimates will be calibrated and referenced to those made by the core satellite, producing for the first time fully-global, continuous, and bias-free precipitation datasets. GPM data will be delivered in near-realtime, taking a major step toward the operational use of precipitation information for model initialization and data assimilation in a number of application areas such as hazardous weather forecasting, flood warning, fresh water resource assessment, and crop growth prediction. In addition, GPM data will complement the now-existing global temperature record, allowing for improved assessments of climate change, particularly those processes in which the global water cycle both forces and responds to climatic drifts in global temperature conditions. A foremost element of this international constellation mission is a parallel international ground validation (GV) network. This GV network is needed to determine uncertainties in the rain retrievals, critical for application of the retrieval information in weather and hydrometeorological modeling and climate diagnostics, as well as assurances that the satellite retrievals of surface rainfall are consistent with those actually measured at the surface. The key aspects of this network is that it must be worldwide and created through the GPM partnership process. Therefore the network will consist of a confederation of government agencies, academic organizations, private institutions, and individual scientists from a collection of nations who have initiated the process by gathering in Abingdon to develop the fundamentals of the international GPM GV research programme. Therefore in keeping with our responsibilities as the front-runners of the programme, the main objectives of this workshop are: (1) to present and share opinions on interests, perspectives, and concerns about GPM GV research; (2) to examine the conceptual and/or planned GPM GV site templates from NASA, NASDA, ESA, and other partners; (3) to define the main scientific objectives of the international GPM GV research programme; (4) to formulate a preliminary set of international GPM GV science and measurement requirements; and (5) to convene a Steering Committee to aid the organization of the GPM GV program, to document its science implementation plans, and to aid planning for follow-up GPM GV meetings.

Smith, Eric A.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Observing Ice in Clouds from Space

There are many satellite observations of cloud top properties and the liquid and rain content of clouds, however, we do not yet quantitatively understand the processes that control the water budget of the upper troposphere where ice is the predominant phase, and how these processes are linked to precipitation processes and the radiative energy budget. The ice in clouds in the upper troposphere either melts into rain or is detrained, and persists, as cirrus clouds affecting the hydrological and energy cycle, respectively. Fully modeling the Earth's climate and improving weather and climate forecasts requires accurate satellite measurements of various cloud properties at the temporal and spatial scales of cloud processes. These properties include cloud horizontal and vertical structure, cloud water content and some measure of particle sizes and shapes. The uncertainty in knowledge of these ice characteristics is reflected in the large discrepancies in model simulations of the upper tropospheric water budget. Model simulations are sensitive to the partition of ice between precipitation and outflow processes, i.e., to the parameterization of ice clouds and ice processes. One barrier to achieving accurate global ice cloud properties is the lack of adequate observations at millimeter and submillimeter wavelengths (183-874 GHz). Recent advances in instrumentation have allowed for the development and implementation of an airborne submillimeter-wave radiometer. The brightness temperatures at these frequencies are especially sensitive to cirrus ice particle sizes (because they are comparable to the wavelength). This allows for more accurate ice water path estimates when multiple channels are used to probe into the cloud layers. Further, submillimeter wavelengths offer simplicity in the retrieval algorithms because they do not probe into the liquid and near surface portions of clouds, thus requiring only one term of the radiative transfer equation (ice scattering) to relate brightness temperatures to ice. The next step is a satellite mission designed to acquire global Earth radiance measurements in the submillimeter-wave region, thus bridging the measurement gap between microwave sounders and shorter-wavelength infrared and visible sensors. This presentation provides scientific justification and an approach to measuring ice water path and particle size from a satellite platform that spans a range encompassing both the hydrologically active and radiatively active components of cloud systems.

Ackerman, S.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Three CA-Related Covariance Issues and Their Solutions

This presentation addresses three issues that arise in the use of DoD-produced satellite state estimate covariances in the conjunction assessment process: the realism of the provided covariances, how to address correlated error between two satellites' covariance matrices, and how to proceed when a furnished covariance is non-positive-definite. To address the first, DoD has implemented a set of two "consider parameters" with which to alter/expand the covariance to account for atmospheric density forecast error and satellite frontal area uncertainty, the two largest sources of unmodeled position prediction error for LEO orbits; these values are governed by a satellite's orbital parameters and ballistic coefficient histories, as well as the current and predicted space weather situation. This approach substantially improves the realism of the covariance by accounting for expected prediction errors that are not part of the fit process that generates the covariance. The second issue of covariance correlation is a complicated one, but the main shared error source—global atmospheric density error that is common to both satellites can be characterized and, through sensitivity vectors, quantified at the conjunction's time of closest approach and removed from the joint covariance, which is used in the CA probability of collision (Pc) calculation. Finally, while according to the orbit determination theory a non-positive-definite (NPD) covariance is not possible, numerical truncation and covariance interpolation can conspire to produce NPD results, which render the covariance unusable for certain CA risk assessment calculations, such as Monte Carlo Pc determination. Three similar techniques are profiled and the simplest of them recommended as a reasonable remediation technique when NPD covariances are encountered by CA practitioners.

Dynamic Consider Parameter↗
NASA NTRS2013

Evaluation of Model Microphysics Within Precipitation Bands of Extratropical Cyclones

Recent studies evaluating the bulk microphysical schemes (BMPs) within cloud resolving models (CRMs) have indicated large uncertainties and errors in the amount and size distributions of snow and cloud ice aloft. The snow prediction is sensitive to the snow densities, habits, and degree of riming within the BMPs. Improving these BMPs is a crucial step toward improving both weather forecasting and climate predictions. Several microphysical schemes in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model down to 1.33‐km grid spacing are evaluated using aircraft, radar, and ground in situ data from the Global Precipitation Mission Coldseason Precipitation Experiment (GCPEx) experiment, as well as a few years (15 winter storms) of surface measurements of riming, crystal habit, snow density, and radar measurements at Stony Brook, NY (SBNY on north shore of Long Island) during the 2009-2012 winter seasons. Surface microphysical measurements at SBNY were taken every 15 to 30 minutes using a stereo microscope and camera, and snow depth and snow density were also recorded. During these storms, a vertically-pointing Ku-band radar was used to observe the vertical evolution of reflectivity and Doppler vertical velocities. A Particle Size and Velocity (PARSIVEL) disdrometer was also used to measure the surface size distribution and fall speeds of snow at SBNY. For the 15 cases at SBNY, the WSM6, Morrison (MORR), Thompson (THOM2), and Stony Brook (SBU-YLIN) BMPs were validated. A non-spherical snow assumption (THOM2 and SBU-YLIN) simulated a more realistic distribution of reflectivity than spherical snow assumptions in the WSM6 and MORR schemes. The MORR, WSM6, and SBU-YLIN schemes are comparable to the observed velocity distribution in light and moderate riming periods. The THOM2 is ~0.25 meters per second too slow with its velocity distribution in these periods. In heavier riming, the vertical Doppler velocities in the WSM6, THOM2, and MORR schemes were ~0.25 meters per second too slow, while the SBU-YLIN was 0.25 to 0.5 meters per second too fast. Overall, the BMPs simulate a size distribution close to the observed for D < 4 mm in the dendritic, plates, and mixed habit periods. The model BMPs underestimate the size distribution when large aggregates were observed. For D > 6 mm in the dendrites, side planes, and mixed habit periods, the BMPs are likely not simulating enough aggregation to create a larger size distribution, although the MORR (double moment) scheme seemed to perform best. These SBNY results will be compared with some results from GCPEx for a warm frontal snow band observed at 18 February 2012.

Colle, Brian A.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Evaluation of Model Microphysics within Precipitation Bands of Extratropical Cyclones

Recent studies evaluating the bulk microphysical schemes (BMPs) within cloud resolving models (CRMs) have indicated large uncertainties and errors in the amount and size distributions of snow and cloud ice aloft. The snow prediction is sensitive to the snow densities, habits, and degree of riming within the BMPs. Improving these BMPs is a crucial step toward improving both weather forecasting and climate predictions. Several microphysical schemes in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model down to 1.33‐km grid spacing are evaluated using aircraft, radar, and ground in situ data from the Global Precipitation Mission Coldseason Precipitation Experiment (GCPEx) experiment, as well as a few years (15 winter storms) of surface measurements of riming, crystal habit, snow density, and radar measurements at Stony Brook, NY (SBNY on north shore of Long Island) during the 2009-2012 winter seasons. Surface microphysical measurements at SBNY were taken every 15 to 30 minutes using a stereo microscope and camera, and snow depth and snow density were also recorded. During these storms, a vertically-pointing Ku-band radar was used to observe the vertical evolution of reflectivity and Doppler vertical velocities. A Particle Size and Velocity (PARSIVEL) disdrometer was also used to measure the surface size distribution and fall speeds of snow at SBNY. For the 15 cases at SBNY, the WSM6, Morrison (MORR), Thompson (THOM2), and Stony Brook (SBU-YLIN) BMPs were validated. A non-spherical snow assumption (THOM2 and SBU-YLIN) simulated a more realistic distribution of reflectivity than spherical snow assumptions in the WSM6 and MORR schemes. The MORR, WSM6, and SBU-YLIN schemes are comparable to the observed velocity distribution in light and moderate riming periods. The THOM2 is approx 0.25 m/s too slow with its velocity distribution in these periods. In heavier riming, the vertical Doppler velocities in the WSM6, THOM2, and MORR schemes were approx 0.25 m/s too slow, while the SBU-YLIN was 0.25 to 0.5 m/s too fast. Overall, the BMPs simulate a size distribution close to the observed for D < 4 mm in the dendritic, plates, and mixed habit periods. The model BMPs underestimate the size distribution when large aggregates were observed. For D > 6 mm in the dendrites, side planes, and mixed habit periods, the BMPs are likely not simulating enough aggregation to create a larger size distribution, although the MORR (double moment) scheme seemed to perform best. These SBNY results will be compared with some results from GCPEx for a warm frontal snow band observed at 18 February 2012.

Colle, Brian A.↗
NASA NTRS2018

MISR-GOES 3D Winds: Implications for Future LEO-GEO and LEO-LEO Winds

Global wind observations are fundamental for studying weather and climate dynamics and for operational forecasting. Most wind measurements come from atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) by tracking the displacement of cloud or water vapor features. These AMVs generally rely on thermal infrared (IR) techniques for their height assignments, which are subject to large uncertainties in the presence of weak or reversed vertical temperature gradients near the planetary boundary layer (PBL)and tropopause folds. Stereo imaging can overcome the height assignment problem using geometric parallax for feature height determination. In this study we develop a stereo 3D-Wind algorithm to simultaneously retrieve AMV and height from geostationary (GEO) and low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite imagery and apply it to collocated Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)and Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) imagery. The new algorithm improves AMV and height relative to products from GOES or MISR alone, with an estimated accuracy of <0.5 m/s in AMV and <200 m in height with 2.2 km sampling. The algorithm can be generalized to other LEO-GEO or LEO-LEO combinations for greater spatiotemporal coverage. The technique demonstrated with MISR and GOES has important implications for future high-quality AMV observations, for which a low-cost constellation of CubeSats can play a vital role.

MISR↗
NASA NTRS2006

Using global aerosol models and satellite data for air quality studies: Challenges and data needs

Aerosol particles, also known as PM2.5 (particle diameter less than 2.5 pm) and PM10 (particle diameter less than 10 pm), are one of the key atmospheric components that determines air quality. Yet, air quality forecasts for PM are still in their infancy and remain a challenging task. It is difficult to simply relate PM levels to local meteorological conditions, and large uncertainties exist in regional air quality model emission inventories and initial and boundary conditions. Especially challenging are periods when a significant amount of aerosol comes from outside the regional modeling domain through long-range transport. In the past few years, NASA has launched several satellites with global aerosol measurement capabilities, providing large-scale chemical weather pictures. NASA has also supported development of global models which simulate atmospheric transport and transformation processes of important atmospheric gas and aerosol species. I will present the current modeling and satellite capabilities for PM2.5 studies, the possibilities and challenges in using satellite data for PM2.5 forecasts, and the needs of future remote sensing data for improving air quality monitoring and modeling.

Chin, Mian↗
NASA NTRS2009

Examining the Impacts of High-Resolution Land Surface Initialization on Model Predictions of Convection in the Southeastern U.S.

One of the most challenging weather forecast problems in the southeastern U.S. is daily summertime pulse convection. During the summer, atmospheric flow and forcing are generally weak in this region; thus, convection typically initiates in response to local forcing along sea/lake breezes, and other discontinuities often related to horizontal gradients in surface heating rates. Numerical simulations of pulse convection usually have low skill, even in local predictions at high resolution, due to the inherent chaotic nature of these precipitation systems. Forecast errors can arise from assumptions within physics parameterizations, model resolution limitations, as well as uncertainties in both the initial state of the atmosphere and land surface variables such as soil moisture and temperature. For this study, it is hypothesized that high-resolution, consistent representations of surface properties such as soil moisture and temperature, ground fluxes, and vegetation are necessary to better simulate the interactions between the land surface and atmosphere, and ultimately improve predictions of local circulations and summertime pulse convection. The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPORT) Center has been conducting studies to examine the impacts of high-resolution land surface initialization data generated by offline simulations of the NASA Land Informatiot~ System (LIS) on subsequent numerical forecasts using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (Case et al. 2008, to appear in the Journal of Hydrometeorology). Case et al. presents improvements to simulated sea breezes and surface verification statistics over Florida by initializing WRF with land surface variables from an offline LIS spin-up run, conducted on the exact WRF domain and resolution. The current project extends the previous work over Florida, focusing on selected case studies of typical pulse convection over the southeastern U.S., with an emphasis on improving local short-term WRF simulations over the Mobile, AL and Miami, FL NWS county warning areas. Future efforts may involve examining the impacts of assimilating remotely-sensed soil moisture data, and/or introducing weekly greenness vegetation fraction composites (as opposed to monthly climatologies) into ol'fline NASA LIS runs. Based on positive impacts, the offline LIS runs could be transitioned into an operational mode, providing land surface initialization data to NWS forecast offices in real time.

Case, Jonathan L.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Quantifying the benefits of improved satellite remote-sensing observations for inverse modeling of NOx and NMVOC emissions

This study aims to demonstrate the benefits of using novel high spatiotemporal retrieval products from newer satellites for top-down emission estimates of nitrogen oxides (NO x ) and non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) for the summer of 2019 over the contiguous United States. Recent satellite retrievals have not only advanced spatiotemporal resolution but also greatly reduced error and uncertainty due to reduced noise in the retrievals compared to spaceborne sensors launched in the past. We applied inverse modeling techniques using tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) and formaldehyde (H-CHO) column retrieval products from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) in conjunction with the Weather Research Forecast and Community Multiscale Air Quality Modeling system (WRF-CMAQ). In order to provide a better representation of background chemical composition and avoid misalignment of emission adjustment, we applied monthly scaling factors for ozone (O 3 ) and CO boundary concentrations in addition to the inclusion of lightning and aviation emissions. Satellite-constrained NO x and NMVOCs posterior emissions showed a mitigated discrepancy between observed and modeled columns. The improvement in the model performance was greater when using TROPOMI, primarily benefiting from reduced errors/biases of the satellite retrievals that enabled us to explore corresponding changes in O 3 concentrations and production sensitivity regimes using the ratio of H-CHO and NO 2 .

remote sensing↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

GMAO OSSE Framework in Support of PBL Mission Science

The planetary boundary layer is the bottom layer of the troposphere where most of human activities take place. Atmospheric pollutants are capped by the temperature inversion layer in PBL. The thickness of PBL, ranging from tens of meter to several kilometer, affects pollutant dispersion and air quality. The thickness of PBL typically shows a strong diurnal cycle but it is difficult to model and predict its change because complicated dynamic and thermodynamic processes involved with air-surface exchange of temperature and moisture, convective mixing, surface friction, topography, advection and radiation heating and cooling influence the PBL height. Various parameterization schemes for PBL were developed but the underlying processes of PBL are neither clearly understood nor represented in NWP models and adding large uncertainty into weather and climate predictions. There are no systematic global observations to provide information on thermodynamic structure of PBL and efforts to explore new spaceborne instruments and measurement techniques are growing. This study aims to develop a PBL OSSE framework leveraging existing GMAO’s OSSE system that utilizes GEOS data assimilation and global forecast model (1) to evaluate existing and potential new observation types for the PBL structure analysis and prediction and (2) to test sensitivity of PBL parameterization schemes to PBL forecasts.

Min-Jeong Kim↗
NASA NTRS2022

Quantifying Errors in 3D CME Parameters Derived from Synthetic Data Using White-Light Reconstruction Techniques

Current efforts in space weather forecasting of CMEs have been focused on predicting their arrival time and magnetic structure. To make these predictions, methods have been developed to derive the true CME speed, size, position, and mass, among others. Difficulties in determining the input parameters for CME forecasting models arise from the lack of direct measurements of the coronal magnetic fields and uncertainties in estimating the CME 3D geometric and kinematic parameters after eruption. White-light coronagraph images are usually employed by a variety of CME reconstruction techniques that assume more or less complex geometries. This is the first study from our International Space Science Institute (ISSI) team “Understanding Our Capabilities in Observing and Modeling Coronal Mass Ejections”, in which we explore how subjectivity affects the 3D CME parameters that are obtained from the Graduated Cylindrical Shell (GCS) reconstruction technique, which is widely used in CME research. To be able to quantify such uncertainties, the “true” values that are being fitted should be known, which are impossible to derive from observational data. We have designed two different synthetic scenarios where the “true” geometric parameters are known in order to quantify such uncertainties for the first time. We explore this by using two sets of synthetic data: 1) Using the ray-tracing option from the GCS model software itself, and 2) Using 3D magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation data from the Magnetohydrodynamic Algorithm outside a Sphere code. Our experiment includes different viewing configurations using single and multiple viewpoints. CME reconstructions using a single viewpoint had the largest errors and error ranges overall for both synthetic GCS and simulated MHD white-light data. As the number of viewpoints increased from one to two, the errors decreased by approximately 4° in latitude, 22° in longitude, 14° in tilt, and 10° in half-angle. Our results quantitatively show the critical need for at least two viewpoints to be able to reduce the uncertainty in deriving CME parameters. We did not find a significant decrease in errors when going from two to three viewpoints for our specific hypothetical three spacecraft scenario using synthetic GCS white-light data. As we expected, considering all configurations and numbers of viewpoints, the mean absolute errors in the measured CME parameters are generally significantly higher in the case of the simulated MHD white-light data compared to those from the synthetic white-light images generated by the GCS model. We found the following CME parameter error bars as a starting point for quantifying the minimum error in CME parameters from white-light reconstructions: Δθ (latitude)=6° +2° -3° , Δϕ (longitude)=11° +18° -6° , Δγ (tilt)=25° +8° -7° , Δx (half-angle)=10° +12° -6° , Δh (height)=0.6 +1.2 -0.4 R ⨀ , and Δκ (ratio)=0.1 +0.03 -0.02 .

Coronal mass ejections↗