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This white paper addresses DOE AI4ESP focus areas #1 and #3. We propose to leverage advances in machine learning and artificial intelligence to create a new unsupervised cloud classification framework that will produce new datasets and cloud process understanding to reduce biases in Earth system models.
Storage-discharge relationships and dynamic changes in storage connectivity remain key unknowns in understanding and predicting watershed behavior. In this study, we use Global Positioning System measurements of load-induced Earth surface displacement as a proxy for total water storage change in four climatologically diverse mountain watersheds in the western United States. Comparing total water storage estimates with stream-connected storage derived from hydrograph analysis, we find that each of the investigated watersheds exhibits a characteristic seasonal pattern of connection and disconnection between total and stream-connected storage. We investigate how the degree and timing of watershed-scale connectivity is related to the timing of precipitation and seasonal changes in dominant hydrologic processes. Our results show that elastic deformation of the Earth due to water loading is a powerful new tool for elucidating dynamic storage connectivity and watershed discharge response across scales in space and time.
Focal Area(s): The white paper focuses on areas 2 and 3. The proposed deep learning modeling approach can provide forecasting capabilities and mechanism-based understanding of terrestrial and aquatic hydro- biogeochemical processes at watershed and river basin scales. Knowledge gleaned here can also provide insights for Earth System Models.
Full-spectrum (350-2500 nm) canopy spectral reflectance measured in July 2015, 2016 and 2017 along the NGEE-Arctic tram located on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO), Barrow, Alaska. Measurements were made using a SVC HR1024i spectroradiometer mounted on a manually operated instrument cart. Spectra were collected at 137 stop points at 0.5 m intervals along the tram transect, with each measurement calibrated to variable illumination conditions using a Spectralon white plate. Data were collected in July, 2015-2016, and in June, July and September in 2017. Processed spectral data are presented in .csv and .xlsx files for each year and the complete SVC instrument output (.sig) are also included in .zip files. The data package includes some photographs showing the tram transect and spectroradiometer setup and a written protocol with details of equipment used and methods.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).
On-going efforts and the growing movement to transition from our current energy systems towards low-carbon and renewable sources have uncovered a range of challenges and concerns communities may face under this transition. An understanding of the current relationships and dynamics within communities can offer critical insights that stakeholders, as well as decision and policy makers can use to better support and affect the outcome of these transitions. To support this need, the National Energy Technology Laboratory has been developing a data-driven framework to aid in the characterization of fossil energy communities across the U.S. and offer insights to comprehensively address energy transaction concerns by different stakeholder groups and various stages associated with a low-carbon energy system. This presentation will offer details on our current work to integrate multiple environmental, social, and economic data variables, as well as key trends and insights that are being used to characterize these communities at a local and regional scale. These insights will be used to evaluate with alternative opportunities, including, but not limited to, hydrogen, rare earth elements and critical minerals, and energy storage, that could be aid in the transition for these communities from conventional energy resources.
This white paper addresses two of three focal areas identified in the white paper call: 1) Biogeochemical data acquisition and assimilation enabled by machine learning and 3) Insight gleaned from complex data using AI. We focus on AI application to complex biogeochemistry (BGC) data (e.g. laboratory experimental data, field manipulation data, literature data), which is an untapped source of information for improving Earth System Predictability (ESP).
This white paper addresses two of three focal areas identified in the white paper call: 1) Biogeochemical data acquisition and assimilation enabled by machine learning and 3) Insight gleaned from complex data using AI. We focus on AI application to complex biogeochemistry (BGC) data (e.g. laboratory experimental data, field manipulation data, literature data), which is an untapped source of information for improving Earth System Predictability (ESP).
Coupled fire-atmosphere models are increasingly being used to study low-intensity fires, such as those that are used in prescribed fire applications. Thus, the need arises to evaluate these models for their ability to accurately represent fire spread in marginal burning conditions. In this study, wind and fuel data collected during the Prescribed Fire Combustion and Atmospheric Dynamics Research Experiments (RxCADRE) fire campaign were used to generate initial and boundary conditions for coupled fire-atmosphere simulations. We present a novel method to obtain fuels representation at the model grid scale using a combination of imagery, machine learning, and field sampling. Several methods to generate wind input conditions for the model from eight different anemometer measurements are explored. We find a strong sensitivity of fire outcomes to wind inputs. This result highlights the critical need to include variable wind fields as inputs in modeling marginal fire conditions. This work highlights the complexities of comparing physics-based model results against observations, which are more acute in marginal burning conditions, where stronger sensitivities to local variability in wind and fuels drive fire outcomes.
ABSTRACT Purple sulfur bacteria (PSB) are capable of anoxygenic photosynthesis via oxidizing reduced sulfur compounds and are considered key drivers of the sulfur cycle in a range of anoxic environments. In this study, we show that Allochromatium vinosum (a PSB species) is capable of autotrophic growth using pyrite as the electron and sulfur source. Comparative growth profile, substrate characterization, and transcriptomic sequencing data provided valuable insight into the molecular mechanisms underlying the bacterial utilization of pyrite and autotrophic growth. Specifically, the pyrite-supported cell cultures (“py”’) demonstrated robust but much slower growth rates and distinct patterns from their sodium sulfide-amended positive controls. Up to ~200-fold upregulation of genes encoding various c - and b -type cytochromes was observed in “py,” pointing to the high relevance of these molecules in scavenging and relaying electrons from pyrite to cytoplasmic metabolisms. Conversely, extensive downregulation of genes related to LH and RC complex components indicates that the electron source may have direct control over the bacterial cells’ photosynthetic activity. In terms of sulfur metabolism, genes encoding periplasmic or membrane-bound proteins (e.g., FccAB and SoxYZ) were largely upregulated, whereas those encoding cytoplasmic proteins (e.g., Dsr and Apr groups) are extensively suppressed. Other notable differentially expressed genes are related to flagella/fimbriae/pilin(+), metal efflux(+), ferrienterochelin(−), and [NiFe] hydrogenases(+). Characterization of the biologically reacted pyrite indicates the presence of polymeric sulfur. These results have, for the first time, put the interplay of PSB and transition metal sulfide chemistry under the spotlight, with the potential to advance multiple fields, including metal and sulfur biogeochemistry, bacterial extracellular electron transfer, and artificial photosynthesis. IMPORTANCE Microbial utilization of solid-phase substrates constitutes a critical area of focus in environmental microbiology, offering valuable insights into microbial metabolic processes and adaptability. Recent advancements in this field have profoundly deepened our knowledge of microbial physiology pertinent to these scenarios and spurred innovations in biosynthesis and energy production. Furthermore, research into interactions between microbes and solid-phase substrates has directly linked microbial activities to the surrounding mineralogical environments, thereby enhancing our understanding of the relevant biogeochemical cycles. Our study represents a significant step forward in this field by demonstrating, for the first time, the autotrophic growth of purple sulfur bacteria using insoluble pyrite (FeS2) as both the electron and sulfur source. The presented comparative growth profiles, substrate characterizations, and transcriptomic sequencing data shed light on the relationships between electron donor types, photosynthetic reaction center activities, and potential extracellular electron transfer in these organisms capable of anoxygenic photosynthesis. Furthermore, the findings of our study may provide new insights into early-Earth biogeochemical evolutions, offering valuable constraints for understanding the environmental conditions and microbial processes that shaped our planet’s history.
This white paper addresses Focus Area II. We advocate developing a hybrid modeling system to improve the understanding of decadal- and longer-scale predictability of high impact water cycle components. This hybrid model combines a partial differential equation (PDE)-based dynamic core with AI/ML based emulators to represent many of the computationally expensive processes in Earth’s climate models. The hybrid modeling system has the potential to exploit emerging graphics processing unit (GPU)-accelerated architectures and allows for the generation of large ensemble (~1000’s) simulations to better characterize the model uncertainty and understand predictability.
This white paper outlines potential approaches to supporting special values in the ZFP numerical compressor without breaking backwards compatibility. Other than infinities and NaNs, special values are often used to indicate the absence of data, where no value is defined, for example by designating finite but extreme “fill values” as special. Such fill values are commonly used in earth system science, among other applications, but if left as is during compression lead to artifacts and loss of precision in nearby true values. Multiple candidate solutions that would allow ZFP to recognize special values are here proposed. Until such support is available, we also sketch available workarounds.
Focal Area: This white paper responds to Focal area III by exploring data fusion, learning and explainable AI methods in characterizing hydrological extremes and interconnections. It also addresses Focal area II by using probabilistic AI and ensemble ML for predicting extremes and compound extremes. Science Challenge: A key question associated with the integrated water (or hydrological) cycle grand challenge in the Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division (EESSD) strategic plan, is how the frequency and intensity of hydrological events will change. Prediction of the tail behavior (extremes) of the hydrological cycle is especially challenging, because of their stochasticity and low probability. These extreme events and their compound impacts have significant societal and economic consequences. It is anticipated for the next-generation Earth System models (ESMs), that model predictability of the water cycle will improve with increased resolution (e.g., regionally refined E3SM), advanced software and computational architectures, and improved model physics based on the data from ARM measurements and high-fidelity models. However, the challenges for predictability of low-probability high-impact extreme events will unlikely be alleviated with conventional modeling and data-driven approaches, as ESMs are calibrated largely for capturing the high-frequency mean climate states. Recent AI and ML applications have shown great potential in quantifying well-defined climate extremes (e.g., supervised learning of tropical cyclones/atmospheric rivers by ClimateNet1) but few efforts are dedicated to compound events, extreme drivers and uncertainty estimation. We envision the opportunity to develop and apply ML and interpretable AI methods extended on the existing efforts, specifically, for: (1) identification of compound extremes, (2) diagnosing drivers of extremes, (3) bias correction in extreme predictions and (4) probabilistic modeling of extremes.
Measurements of full-spectrum (i.e. 350-2500 nm) canopy spectral reflectance of Arctic plant species within the BEO, Barrow, Alaska. Spectra were collected using Spectra Vista Corporation (SVC) HR-2014i and Spectral Evolution (SE) PSR+ instruments mounted on a tripod or monopod together with a Spectralon white plate to calibrate each measurement under variable illumination conditions. Data were collected in Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska during the 2014 to 2016 period. Data package includes processed spectra (*.csv) files and original instrument output and processing files (*.zip).The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a 10-year research effort (2012-2022) to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).
This white paper responds to Focal Area 1. The associated portfolio of research activities is well-suited to DOE’s asset mix of HPC platforms, climate expertise, climate simulation codes, and AI expertise, which creates an opportunity to use manifold-finding probabilistic AI methods to create more powerful data assimilation techniques that increase the fidelity and forecasting skill of Earth System Prediction.
We report the first unambiguous detection and mass measurement of an isolated stellar-mass black hole (BH). We used the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) to carry out precise astrometry of the source star of the long-duration (t E ≃ 270 days), high-magnification microlensing event MOA-2011-BLG-191/OGLE-2011-BLG-0462 (hereafter designated as MOA-11-191/OGLE-11-462), in the direction of the Galactic bulge. HST imaging, conducted at eight epochs over an interval of 6 yr, reveals a clear relativistic astrometric deflection of the background star's apparent position. Ground-based photometry of MOA-11-191/OGLE-11-462 shows a parallactic signature of the effect of Earth's motion on the microlensing light curve. Combining the HST astrometry with the ground-based light curve and the derived parallax, we obtain a lens mass of 7.1 ± 1.3 M ⊙ and a distance of 1.58 ± 0.18 kpc. We show that the lens emits no detectable light, which, along with having a mass higher than is possible for a white dwarf or neutron star, confirms its BH nature. Our analysis also provides an absolute proper motion for the BH. The proper motion is offset from the mean motion of Galactic disk stars at similar distances by an amount corresponding to a transverse space velocity of ~45 km s -1 , suggesting that the BH received a "natal kick" from its supernova explosion. Previous mass determinations for stellar-mass BHs have come from radial velocity measurements of Galactic X-ray binaries and from gravitational radiation emitted by merging BHs in binary systems in external galaxies. Our mass measurement is the first for an isolated stellar-mass BH using any technique.
This is a self-contained reference document that derives the equations necessary to build a combined inertial navigation system and error-state Kalman filter. Coordinate transform, linear time invariant system, inertial sensing, and error-state Kalman filtering theory is built up from first principles. This theory is then leveraged to derive the system equations for two combined inertial navigation system and error-state Kalman filters: (1) a 15-state system modeling white-noise-integrating accelerometer and gyroscope biases, and (2) a 39-state system modeling static and first-order Gauss-Markov accelerometer and gyroscope biases, scale factor errors, and cross-axis sensitivity errors.
Measurements of full-range (350–2500 nm) canopy spectral reflectance of Arctic plant species, plots, and transects at the Next Generation Ecosystem Experiment Arctic (NGEE Arctic) Teller Mile Marker (MM27) and Kougarok Fire Complex (KFC) sites, Seward Peninsula, Alaska. Spectra were collected in July 2022 using a handheld SVC HR-2014i spectroradiometer. All spectra were collected as calibrated surface radiance and converted to surface reflectance using 99.99% reflective Spectralon white reference standard. This data package includes unprocessed instrument output of the spectra signals (.sig) and, for some canopy measurements, photographs of the target taken by the SVC instrument camera or handheld digital camera (.jpg), GPS locations and file metadata (.csv).The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a 15-year research effort (2012-2027) to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).
The primary goals of this project are exploring hidden geothermal resources in the U.S.A. and designing profitable enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). Many processes and parameters control geothermal exploration and energy production from geothermal fields. Diverse datasets (e.g., geology, geochemistry, geophysics, satellite, airborne geophysics) are available to help characterize subsurface geothermal conditions. Sparse and multi-scale characteristics of these datasets prohibit properly leveraging these datasets for geothermal exploration and profitable EGS design. Recent advancements in machine learning (ML) promise to resolve these issues. The tremendous challenges and risks of geothermal exploration and production bring the demand for novel ML methods and tools that can (1) analyze large field datasets, (2) assimilate model simulations (large inputs and outputs), (3) process sparse datasets, (4) perform transfer learning (between sites with different exploratory levels), (5) extract hidden geothermal signatures in the field and simulation data, (6) label geothermal resources and processes, (7) identify high-value data acquisition targets, and (8) guide geothermal exploration and production by selecting optimal exploration, production, and drilling strategies. To address these necessities, ML-based geothermal resources exploration and enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) design tools have been developed. The exploration tool is called GeoThermalCloud and EGS design tool is called GeoDT-ML. GeoThermalCloud (https://github.com/SmartTensors/GeoThermalCloud.jl) utilizes a LANL unsupervised ML platform called SmartTensors (https://tensors.lanl.gov/) to automate data analyses and interpretations by extracting hidden signatures to identify geothermal prospects. Also, it enables the identification of critical measurements needed to identify geothermal resource signatures. Alternatively, GeoDT-ML (https://github.com/SmartTensors/GeoThermalCloud.jl/tree/master/EGS) is an ML-based alternative to GeoDT (https://github.com/GeoDesignTool/GeoDT.git), a fast, simplified multi-physics solver to evaluate EGS project designs in uncertain geologic systems. GeoDT-ML leverages recent advances in deep learning and high-performance computing. It is a faster and simpler version of GeoDT. To make this project a success, we used capabilities of LANL, PNNL, Google, Stanford, and Julia Computing. We analyzed eight datasets of the U.S.A. using GeothermalCloud and demonstrated potential highly prospective geothermal resources and identified key factors defining highly prospective sites. The first data set includes 44 locations in southwest New Mexico and 18 geological, hydrogeological, geophysical, geothermal, geochemical attributes. We defined low- and medium-temperature hydrothermal systems and discovered a new highly prospective site. The second data set analyzed 18 shallow water chemistry attributes at 14,342 locations in the Great Basin. It demarcated modestly, moderately, and highly prospective sites including key attributes for each type of prospectivity. The third data set analyzed Utah FORGE data including satellite (InSAR), geophysical (gravity, seismic), geochemical, and geothermal attributes. Here, we performed prospectivity analysis to identify future drilling locations using geological, geochemical, and geophysical attributes. Maps of temperature at depth and heat flow are constructed based on the available data. Prospectivity maps were generated, and drilling locations were proposed for future geothermal field exploration. The fourth data set analyzed 21 attributes at 120 locations in Tularosa Basin, New Mexico; data comes from past play fairway analyses in this region. ML analyses identified geothermal signatures associated with modestly, moderately, and highly hydrothermal systems. We also defined dominant attributes and spatial distribution of the geothermal signatures. The fifth, sixth, seventh, and eighth datasets include Tohatchi Springs, New Mexico, Hawaii, Brady site, Nevada, and EGS Collab, respectively. Moreover, we coupled GeothermalCloud and magnetotellurics data to pinpoint drilling locations for developing geothermal projects in the Tularosa Basin, New Mexico. GeothermalCloud found potential prospective locations for geothermal resources near White Sands Missile Range and McGregor Range at Fort Bliss. Magnetotellurics data determined the potential depth (~1800m) of geothermal prospects at McGregor Range based on apparent resistivity structures/layers in the subsurface. The McGregor Range consists of three resistivity layers and two resistivity structures. Magnetotellurics data also helps identify that the western portion of the McGregor Range has thick and low-resistivity earth materials. The low resistivity to the west is most likely for a fault system. Assuming temperature is consistent with a geothermal reservoir, the west-central part of the McGregor Range has the highest geothermal potential because of the increase in porosity and associated permeability attributed to the interpreted fault system. Also, we devised a coupling strategy between a process model and GeothermalCloud to characterize hydrogeological conditions and geothermal conditions, respectively. The process model characterizes hydrogeological and geothermal conditions on highly prospective geothermal sites provided by GeothermalCloud. We developed a physics-informed neural network (PINN) version of the Burns equation that can be easily coupled with GeothermalCloud. Furthermore, we performed an optimal design decision maximizing the economic value of an EGS power plant. This study optimized the range of well spacing between injection and production wells maximizing net present value in dollars (NPV). For this task, we used the GeoDT to simulate the Utah FORGE EGS development cycle from the initial well design to the end of production. Next, we accomplished another crucial task, which is predicting permeability of geothermal reservoirs. Predicting permeability of geothermal reservoirs is a non-trivial task because of huge computational runtime of simulation and lack of measurements. To avoid these limitations, we used easy-to-measure chemical concentrations in the subsurface as measurement data and convolutional neural network based ML model of a high-fidelity model. Next, we predicted permeability using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. We found that Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation predicts permeability with a high certainty if the prediction zone in the simulation area has chemical concentration data. Finally, we analyzed the DOE funded INGENIOUS and GeoDAWN projects data. For discovering hidden geothermal systems in the Great Basin, the INGENIOUS project accumulated old data, collected new data, and released them in 2022. The dataset includes a total of 24 geological, geophysical, and geochemical attributes. Data resolution and scale significantly vary prohibiting an appropriate usage. To avoid such limitations, we brought all data in the same resolution and scale by applying the inverse distance weighting interpolation technique for predicting data in unsampled locations. Subsequently, we analyzed LiDAR data of the GeoDAWN project. We received data in tiles format. The DOE’s overarching goal is to use ML on LiDAR data for finding favorable geological structures (e.g., step up faults in Brady, Nevada). To serve the purpose, we need to label favorable geologic structures that correspond to LiDAR data. We wrote an algorithm to label the LiDAR data with the favorable geologic structures.