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At least 55 records · Page 3

QUIC-fire: A fast-running simulation tool for prescribed fire planning

Coupled fire-atmospheric modeling tools are increasingly used to understand the complex and dynamic behavior of wildland fires. Multiple research tools linking combustion to fluid flow use Navier-Stokes numerical solutions coupled to a thermodynamic model to understand fire-atmospheric feedbacks, but these computational fluid dynamics approaches require high-performance computing resources. We present a new simulation tool called QUIC-Fire to rapidly solve these feedbacks by coupling the mature 3-D rapid wind solver QUIC-URB to a physics-based cellular automata fire spread model Fire-CA. QUIC-Fire uses 3-D fuels inputs similar to the CFD model FIRETEC, allowing this tool to simulate effects of fuel structure on local winds and fire behavior. Results comparing fire behavior metrics to the computational fluid dynamic model FIRETEC show strong agreement. As a result, QUIC-Fire is the first tool intended to provide an opportunity for prescribed fire planners to compare, evaluate and design burn plans, including complex ignition patterns and coupled fire atmospheric feedbacks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

High resolution numerical simulations of methane pool fires using adaptive mesh refinement

The ability to accurately predict the structure and dynamics of pool fires using computational simulations is of great interest in a wide variety of applications, including accidental and wildland fires. However, the presence of physical processes spanning a broad range of spatial and temporal scales poses a significant challenge for simulations of such fires, particularly at conditions near the transition between laminar and turbulent flow. Here, in this study, we examine the transition to turbulence in methane pool fires using high-resolution simulations with multi-step finite rate chemistry, where adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) is used to directly resolve small-scale flow phenomena. We perform three simulations of methane pool fires, each with increasing diameter, corresponding to increasing inlet Reynolds and Richardson numbers. As the diameter increases, the flow transitions from organized vortex roll-up via the puffing instability to much more chaotic mixing associated with finger formation along the shear layer and core collapse near the inlet. These effects combine to create additional mixing close to the inlet, thereby enhancing fuel consumption and causing more rapid acceleration of the fluid above the pool. We also make comparisons between the transition to turbulence and core collapse in the present pool fires and in inert helium plumes, which are often used as surrogates for the study of buoyant reacting flows.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Comparing gas composition from fast pyrolysis of live foliage measured in bench-scale and fire-scale experiments

Background: Fire models have used pyrolysis data from oxidising and non-oxidising environments for flaming combustion. In wildland fires pyrolysis, flaming and smouldering combustion typically occur in an oxidising environment (the atmosphere). Aims: Using compositional data analysis methods, determine if the composition of pyrolysis gases measured in non-oxidising and ambient (oxidising) atmospheric conditions were similar. Methods: Permanent gases and tars were measured in a fuel-rich (non-oxidising) environment in a flat flame burner (FFB). Permanent and light hydrocarbon gases were measured for the same fuels heated by a fire flame in ambient atmospheric conditions (oxidising environment). Log-ratio balances of the measured gases common to both environments (CO, CO 2 , CH 4 , H 2 , C 6 H 6 O (phenol), and other gases) were examined by principal components analysis (PCA), canonical discriminant analysis (CDA) and permutational multivariate analysis of variance (PERMANOVA). Key results: Mean composition changed between the non-oxidising and ambient atmosphere samples. PCA showed that flat flame burner (FFB) samples were tightly clustered and distinct from the ambient atmosphere samples. CDA found that the difference between environments was defined by the CO-CO 2 log-ratio balance. PERMANOVA and pairwise comparisons found FFB samples differed from the ambient atmosphere samples which did not differ from each other. Conclusion: Relative composition of these pyrolysis gases differed between the oxidising and non-oxidising environments. This comparison was one of the first comparisons made between bench-scale and field scale pyrolysis measurements using compositional data analysis. Implications: These results indicate the need for more fundamental research on the early time-dependent pyrolysis of vegetation in the presence of oxygen.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

TA-03-0016 Ion Beam Facility D&D: Sphere of Influence [Slides]

TA-03-0016 Ion Beam Facility: This structure is 70 years old and has been vacant since 1994 and was excessed in 1999. The Ion Beam Facility (IBF) was built in 1953 to support essential post-World War II scientific research and houses LANL's original vertical and tandem Van de Graaff accelerators. The vertical Van de Graaff accelerator was built under the direction of Joseph McKibben from 1948 to 1952 and was used for applied nuclear physics experiments. The Ion Beam facility is considered by NNSA as one of its highest risk process contaminated facilities within the complex. Ion Beam is a radiological facility adjacent to the LANL Occupational Medicine Facility on the south side of TA-3, the most populated technical area at LANL. It poses an undesirable fire risk, especially given its close location to a rugged wooded canyon and difficulties in fighting a wildland fire in such a location. Demolition of this structure will provide a constructable site for critical mission radiological laboratory spaces.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Heating effects on pyrogenic organic matter mass loss and temperature in a sand matrix in a lab setting from 2022

This dataset contains data associated with the preprint “A laboratory method for simulating the effects of subsequent fires on pyrogenic organic matter at different exposure depths in a sand matrix” (https://doi.org/10.1101/2024.07.30.605814), which has been accepted for publication in the International Journal of Wildland Fire. The dataset was generated to investigate the effects of subsequent fires on preexisting pyrogenic organic matter (PyOM) at different soil depths. Specifically, we designed a laboratory method to simulate soil heating from above, applying realistic heat flux profiles (High, Low, Control) derived from jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb.) log burns. Using a cone calorimeter, these profiles were applied to buried jack pine PyOM (produced at 350°C) in a sand matrix pyrocosm to examine PyOM mass loss at different depths (surface, 1 cm, 5 cm). Each treatment (e.g., High heat flux at 1 cm depth) was applied once to five replicates in a pyrocosm.The dataset includes mass loss fraction of PyOM and time-series temperature profiles (measured with type K thermocouples). Additionally, calibration datasets for high and low heat flux profiles are provided, including programmed heat flux profile data and three sets of calibration results. All datasets are in .csv format and were analyzed in R using code found at https://github.com/MengmengLuo/Reburning-pyrogenic-organic-matter-A-laboratory-method-for-dosing-dynamic-heat-fluxes-from-above. This dataset supports research on PyOM transformations during subsequent fires, and methodological advancements in simulating soil heating. It can be used to explore fire-induced PyOM alterations across different fire intensities and soil depths.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Deep-learning-based canopy height model generation from sub-meter resolution panchromatic satellite imagery

Canopy height models (CHMs) with sufficient resolution to distinguish individual trees are useful for a variety of applications. However, standard techniques to acquire such data, such as airborne lidar surveying, are often prohibitively expensive. Deep learning techniques for generating CHMs from high-resolution imagery are an attractive option to reduce costs. To date, success with these methods has been demonstrated using multichannel aerial photography and specialized satellite data products derived from multiple sensors, neither of which is commonly available at temporal resolutions finer than one year. Here we demonstrate a method to generate sub-meter resolution CHMs in three forests in California using a more abundant data source: sub-meter resolution, panchromatic satellite imagery from a single sensor. We show that phenology and species composition play important roles in model transferability; when trained using imagery from a single conifer forest in autumn, the model performs well on autumn imagery from a second conifer forest several hundred kilometers distant with no re-training. With modest additions to the training dataset, the same model generates minimally biased estimates of canopy height in both conifer and deciduous forests during multiple seasons. Because the model operates on satellite data with global coverage and a relatively short return interval, we propose its suitability to extrapolate tree-level canopy height data to remote regions and conduct high-temporal resolution monitoring of forest structure. We furthermore demonstrate the workflow’s applicability to fire modeling by conducting simulations in forests populated by trees measured using both this approach and airborne lidar surveying. We find minimal differences in fire behavior relative to a baseline case in which only statistical distributions of tree height and crown area are known. This result underscores the value of forest structural information derived from our workflow for improving the fidelity of wildland fire simulations, among other ecological applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Multi-Analysis Approach for Estimating Regional Health Impacts from the 2017 Northern California Wildfires

In the evening of October 8 and early hours of October 9, 2017, high winds in Northern California downed trees and power lines, igniting some of the most devastating wildfires the state had seen, and within hours unhealthy air quality impacted millions of people. We simulated these air quality conditions using fire detection information from the MODIS, VIIRS, and GOES-16 ABI satellite instruments, and applying a set of three WRF–CMAQ simulations, one data fusion, and three machine learning methods. We investigated using the 5-min available GOES-16 fire detection data to simulate timing of fire activity to allocate emissions hourly for the WRF-CMAQ air quality modeling system. Interestingly, this approach did not necessarily improve results compared to the baseline case, which used a default time profile. However, this approach was key to simulating the initial 12-hr explosive fire activity and smoke impacts. The WRF-CMAQ simulations compared well with observational data for the October 8-15 time period and tended to overestimate concentrations October 16-20. To improve these results, we applied three machine learning algorithms. We also had a unique opportunity to evaluate results with temporary monitors deployed specifically for wildfires, and performance was markedly different. For example, at the permanent monitoring locations, the WRF-CMAQ simulations had a Pearson correlation of 0.65, and the data fusion approach improved this (Pearson correlation = 0.95), while at the temporary monitor locations across the WRF-CMAQ, data fusion, and machine learning datasets, the best Pearson correlation was 0.5. The data fusion and machine learning results were biased low and WRF-CMAQ results were biased high. Finally, we applied the optimized PM2.5 exposure estimate in a short-term exposure-response function. Total estimated mortality attributable to PM2.5 exposure during the smoke episode was 83 (95% confidence interval: 0, 196) with 47% of these deaths attributable to wildland fire smoke.

O'Neill, Susan↗

Evolution of global snow drought characteristics from 1850 to 2100

Abstract Seasonal snow is an integral part of the global water supply and storage system. Snow droughts impact ecological, agricultural, and urban systems by altering the amount and timing of meltwater delivery. These droughts are characterized by a lack of on-the-ground snow (snow water equivalent, SWE) that can be caused by low total precipitation (dry drought) or low proportion of precipitation falling as snowfall (warm drought), often combined with an early melt. The standardized SWE index (SWEI) ranks the current status of SWE for a given location compared to a baseline condition and identifies the existence, but not the cause, of snow drought. In this work, we use estimates of SWE, temperature, and precipitation from nine coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6) models to quantify the frequency, severity, and type of snow droughts globally for historical and future scenarios. Compared to a historical baseline (1850–1900) total snow drought frequency more than doubles under socio-economic pathway (SSP)2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5; all of the increase in snow drought frequency comes from an increase in warm droughts. The probability distribution of future SWEI in major snowy basins around the world are likely to be centered on more negative values, which corresponds to more severe drought and, with only moderate changes in distribution spread, more frequent drought. CMIP6 simulations pinpoint snow drought as an emerging global threat to water resources and highlight the need to explore higher resolution future models that better capture complex mountain topography, wildland fires, and snow-forest interactions.

CMIP6↗

FuelsGen

This toolset generates heterogeneous spatial layouts, aimed at representing forest fuels applicable to wildland fire modeling. Methods are included for calibrating (fitting) this model to data extracted from plot survey information.

Gattiker, James↗

Los Alamos National Laboratory Floodplain Assessment for the West Road Maintenance Project

The National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), a semi-autonomous agency within the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), is proposing to take action at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) and do maintenance on West Road at locations along its entirety from the intersection with West Jemez Road/New Mexico State Road 501 (NM 501) to the intersection with Dulce Street through Los Alamos Canyon. The proposed West Road Maintenance Project is intended to improve vehicular and pedestrian safety on West Road by reducing traffic hazards associated with poor road conditions and unsafe roadside parking. Proposed road maintenance and improvement activities throughout the length of West Road include asphalt milling and resurfacing of approximately 2.06 miles (mi.) of the road. West Road crosses approximately 0.35 mi. (1,900 feet (ft.)) of the Los Alamos Canyon floodplain at the bottom of Los Alamos Canyon. Project activities within the floodplain include: 1) mill and resurface the roadway, 2) replace existing guardrails, 3) block access to the informal roadside parking along either side of West Road in Los Alamos Canyon, 4) install trail signage and perform trail maintenance, and 5) restore habitat and reduce wildland fire risk through invasive species removal.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Los Alamos National Laboratory Floodplain Assessment for the West Road Post and Cable Fencing Project

The National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), a semi-autonomous agency within the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), is proposing to take action at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) to install post and cable or in-kind barriers along West Road at selected locations near the Los Alamos County ice-skating rink in Los Alamos Canyon (Figure 1). The proposed project is intended to improve vehicular and pedestrian safety on West Road by reducing traffic hazards associated with unsafe roadside parking and reduce wildland fire hazards associated with vehicles driving and parking on vegetation. West Road crosses approximately 0.35 miles (mi.) (1,900 feet (ft.)) of the Los Alamos Canyon floodplain at the bottom of Los Alamos Canyon. Project activities within the floodplain include blocking access to the informal roadside parking along either side of West Road in Los Alamos Canyon.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Invasive Plant Species Management Plan for Los Alamos National Laboratory (Rev.3)

Native species are plants and animals that continually occupy a natural range without direct or indirect introduction and/or care by humans. They are adapted to the environmental conditions and processes of the ecosystem in which they reside. A species introduced into a novel ecosystem can either exploit that ecosystem and thrive or be unable to survive in that ecosystem (Hobbs et al. 2006). Alien or non-native species are species that are intentionally or accidentally introduced into a novel ecosystem and are capable of living and propagating within the physical parameters of that ecosystem. Invasive species is a species that is non-native (or alien) to the ecosystem under consideration and a noxious species are those whose introduction causes or is likely to cause economic or environmental harm. The term invasive species is applicable to plants and animals alike; however, this invasive species management plan currently focuses on invasive vegetation. Invasive plant species are usually capable of rapid colonization of disturbed ground, such as after a change in wildfire regime intensity and frequency (Reilly et al. 2020) or anthropogenic ground disturbance (Burke and Grime 1996; Hobbs and Huenneke 1992). Climate change facilitates the spread and establishment of many alien species and creates new opportunities for them to become invasive (Turbelin and Catford 2021). As climate change impacts increase in the coming decades, we may see in an increase in invasive species establishment. See a list of definitions of terms pertinent to this document in Appendix A: Definitions. Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) hosts populations of non-native and invasive species all typical of the northern New Mexico region (Martin 2004; NMDA 2020). By implementing an invasive species management plan, LANL will have readily accessible management strategies for invasive species that are found on-site. The benefits of managing invasive species include a decrease in wildland fire risks, an increase in soil productivity, an increase in (productive or beneficial) wildlife habitat, an increase in water quantity and quality, and the restoration of impacted areas (Burke and Grime 1996; Hobbs and Huenneke 1992; D’Antonio and Hobbie 2005; MacDougall et al. 2013; Reilly et al. 2020). The aforementioned benefits from invasive species management directly enable the LANL mission by ensuring compliance requirements are met and site-wide programs, such as the Vulnerability Assessment and Resilience Plan, are supported for a mutually beneficial outcome. An example for the LANL site specifically, controlling non-native annual plant species, for example, could reduce the costs associated with stabilizing soils during the stormwater pollution prevention compliance process. Roadway and utility right-of-way areas are another place where an integrated vegetation management strategy would promote low growing perennial plants in a way that is mutually beneficial to habitat and the institution through lowered maintenance costs. There is also an economic benefit to managing invasive species. In one nationwide study, invasive plants had an estimated impact cost of $190.45 billion (Fantel-Lepczyk et al. 2022). Investing in preventative measures and surveillance could help to offset future control and management costs of invasive species that have the potential to become established. The State of New Mexico has developed plant species lists and recommendations through the New Mexico Department of Agriculture’s Noxious Weeds Management Act, Article 7D (NM Statute § 76-7D-4 2021); however, effective invasive species management must rely on local knowledge of the site and region. Los Alamos County (LAC) has already compiled a target invasive plant species list and species-specific management objectives (Martin 2004). Therefore, the New Mexico Noxious Weed List and the LAC invasive plant species list, as well as management objectives from those documents, are integrated into LANL’s invasive plant species management plan.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impact of grassland fire dynamics on particulate emission factors

Understanding particulate emission factors in grassland fires is critical for improving air quality assessments and refining emissions inventories. This study explores the dynamic and heterogeneous nature of fire processes and their influence on particulate emissions. Traditional emission factor inventories often rely on static values, overlooking the spatially and temporally variable dynamics of fire behavior. Through field experiments conducted at Konza Prairie Biological Station measuring emissions with uncrewed aerial vehicles, and computational modeling using HIGRAD/FIRETEC, this research highlights the dependency of emission production on localized fire dynamics, including ignition patterns, fuel properties, and atmospheric conditions. The results demonstrate a need for fire dynamic considerations to accurately capture emissions variability.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Thermochemical Transformation of Calcium during Biomass Burning and the Effects on Postfire Aqueous Dissolution of Macronutrients

Calcium is commonly the most abundant element in fire residues and its speciation largely determines the geochemical properties of fire residues and their effects on postfire soil chemistry. To explore the effects of biomass composition and fire conditions on ash Ca speciation, this study characterizes the speciation of Ca in charcoal and ash samples that were derived from different plant compartments and thermal conditions, using Ca K-edge X-ray absorption near edge spectroscopy. Results showed that biomass contains abundant organic Ca complexes, which were mineralized into fairchildite and calcite after heating at 450 to 600 °C and then CaO, as temperature increased to 750 °C. Apatite could be an abundant Ca species in fire residues if the Ca/P molar ratio of the biomass is small (<2). The mineralization of organic Ca to the identified Ca minerals during burning was negligibly affected by the oxygen level. Calcium speciation in prescribed fire residues resembled that of biomass ash burned at 550 °C with similar Ca/P molar ratios. Batch experiments showed that macronutrients (Ca, Mg, K, and P) were differentially released, as a result of different solubility of minerals in ashes and reprecipitation of minerals. The aqueous solubility of Ca, Mg, and P decreased as pH increased from 5 to 9, while K showed no pH dependency and was almost completely soluble. Results from this study improve our understanding of the chemistry of fire residues and their geochemical behaviors, which can help evaluate the impact of fire on postfire soil properties and macronutrient cycling.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Speciation and Aqueous Dissolution of Macronutrients in Fire Ash: Variation across Ecosystems and the Effects on Nutrient Cycling

This study investigated the speciation and aqueous dissolution of macronutrients in fire ash from diverse ecosystems and speciation of ash and smoke from laboratory burning, exploring the variations and their causes. The speciation of phosphorus (P), calcium (Ca), and potassium (K) in fire ash from five globally distributed ecosystems was characterized by using X-ray absorption spectroscopy and sequential fractionation. Aqueous dissolution of the macronutrients was measured by batch experiments at acidic and alkaline pHs. The results showed that P existed mainly as Ca phosphates, Ca as double carbonates, calcite, and sulfates, and most K was associated with Ca carbonates. Mineralogy and the relative abundance of the species were primarily controlled by elemental stoichiometry and fire temperature. Differences in Ca and P speciation existed between ash and smoke from laboratory burning, possibly caused by the temperature difference and/or mass fractionation during burning. The rates, extents, and pH dependencies of macronutrient dissolution differed among macronutrients and depended on their speciation, with K being highly soluble and the P and Ca regulated by solution pH. The variability in ash macronutrient chemistry and ecosystemspecific fire ash loads resulted in varying loads and availability of individual macronutrient from fire among ecosystems. This study provides a mechanistic understanding of how fires transform the chemistry of macronutrients and affect macronutrient returns to soils across different ecosystems, which is essential for evaluating the disturbance to ecosystem nutrient cycling by fires.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Recurrent Convolutional Deep Neural Networks for Modeling Time-Resolved Wildfire Spread Behavior

The increasing incidence and severity of wildfires underscores the necessity of accurately predicting their behavior. While high-fidelity models derived from first principles offer physical accuracy, they are too computationally expensive for use in real-time fire response. Low-fidelity models sacrifice some physical accuracy and generalizability via the integration of empirical measurements, but enable real-time simulations for operational use in fire response. Machine learning techniques have demonstrated the ability to bridge these objectives by learning first-principles physics while achieving computational speedups. While deep learning approaches have demonstrated the ability to predict wildfire propagation over large time periods, time-resolved fire-spread predictions are needed for active fire management. Here, in this work, we evaluate the ability of deep learning approaches in accurately modeling the time-resolved dynamics of wildfires. We use an autoregressive process in which a convolutional recurrent deep learning model makes predictions that propagate a wildfire over 15 min increments. We apply the model to four simulated datasets of increasing complexity, containing both field fires with homogeneous fuel distribution as well as real-world topologies sampled from the California region of the United States. We show that even after 100 autoregressive predictions representing more than 24 h of simulated fire spread, the resulting models generate stable and realistic propagation dynamics, achieving a Jaccard score between 0.89 and 0.94 when predicting the resulting fire scar. The inference time of the deep learning models are examined and compared, and directions for future work are discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗