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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessing the Viability of Using GEOS-Forecast Product for Landslides Forecasting: A Step Toward Early Warning System

Landslides across the globe are mostly triggered by extreme rainfall events affecting infrastructure, transportation and livelihoods. The risks are rarely quantified due to lack of data, analytical skills and limited modeling techniques. Knowledge of local to global scale landslide risks provides communities and national agencies the ability to adapt disaster management practices to mitigate and recover from these hazards. In order to minimize the risks and improve characterization of community resilience to landslides, it is vital to have reliable information about the factors triggering landslides such as rainfall, well ahead in time. Forecasting potential landslide activity and impacts can be achieved through reliable precipitation forecast models. However, it is challenging because of the temporal and spatial variability of precipitation, an important factor in triggering landslides. Evaluation of the precipitation field, associated errors, and sampling uncertainties is integral for development of efficient and reliable landslide forecasting and early warning system. This study develops a methodology to assess the viability of using a precipitation field provided by a global model and its potential integration in the landslide forecasting system. The study focuses on the comparison between the IMERG (Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Mission) and GEOS (NASA Goddard Earth Observing System)-Forecast product over contiguous United States (CONUS). GEOS model assimilates new observations every 6 hours, at 00, 06, 12, and 18 UTC. The framework is tested on the GEOS-Forecast Model initialized at 00 UTC using daily IMERG early product as reference using both categorical and continuous statistics. The categorical statistics includes the probability of detection (POD), success ratio (SR), critical success index (CSI), and the hit bias. Continuous statistics such as correlation, normalized standard deviation, and root-mean-square error are also evaluated. Overall, GEOS-Forecast precipitation field over the analysis period (~1 year) show underestimation with respect to IMERG early for the daily accumulated rainfall. However, the probability distribution function and cumulative distribution function of both show similar patterns. In terms of correlations, POD, SR, CSI, hit bias, the performance varies with respect to the rainfall threshold used.

Sana Khan↗

NASA NTRS2005

Beamline Electrostatic Levitator (BESL) for in-situ High Energy K-Ray Diffraction Studies of Levitated Solids and Liquids at High Temperature

Determinations of the phase formation sequence, the crystal structures and the thermodynamic properties of materials at high temperatures are difficult because of contamination from the sample container and environment. Containerless processing techniques, such as electrostatic (ESL), electromagnetic (EML), aerodynamic, and acoustic levitation, are most suitable these studies. An adaptation of ESL for in-situ structural studies of a wide range of materials, including metals, semiconductors, insulators using high energy (125 keV) synchrotron x-rays is described here. This beamline ESL (BESL) allows the in-situ determination of the atomic structures of equilibrium solid and liquid phases, including undercooled liquids, as well as real-time studies of solid-solid and liquid-solid phase transformations. The use of image plate (MAR345) or GE-Angio detectors enables fast (30 ms - 1s) acquisition of complete diffraction patterns over a wide q-range (4 - 140/mm). The wide temperature range (300 - 2500 K), containerless processing under high vacuum (10(exp -7) - 10(exp -8) torr), and fast data acquisition, make BESL particularly suitable for phase diagram studies of high temperature materials. An additional, critically important, feature of BESL is the ability to also make simultaneous measurement of a host of thermo-physical properties, including the specific heat, enthalpy of transformation, solidus and liquidus temperatures, density, viscosity, and surface tension; all on the same sample and simultaneous with the structural measurements.

Gangopadhyay, A. K.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Development of an advanced spacecraft tandem mass spectrometer

The purpose of this research was to apply current advanced technology in electronics and materials to the development of a miniaturized Tandem Mass Spectrometer that would have the potential for future development into a package suitable for spacecraft use. The mass spectrometer to be used as a basis for the tandem instrument would be a magnetic sector instrument, of Nier-Johnson configuration, as used on the Viking Mars Lander mission. This instrument configuration would then be matched with a suitable second stage MS to provide the benefits of tandem MS operation for rapid identification of unknown organic compounds. This tandem instrument is configured with a newly designed GC system to aid in separation of complex mixtures prior to MS analysis. A number of important results were achieved in the course of this project. Among them were the development of a miniaturized GC subsystem, with a unique desorber-injector, fully temperature feedback controlled oven with powered cooling for rapid reset to ambient conditions, a unique combination inlet system to the MS that provides for both membrane sampling and direct capillary column sample transfer, a compact and ruggedized alignment configuration for the MS, an improved ion source design for increased sensitivity, and a simple, rugged tandem MS configuration that is particularly adaptable to spacecraft use because of its low power and low vacuum pumping requirements. The potential applications of this research include use in manned spacecraft like the space station as a real-time detection and warning device for the presence of potentially harmful trace contaminants of the spacecraft atmosphere, use as an analytical device for evaluating samples collected on the Moon or a planetary surface, or even use in connection with monitoring potentially hazardous conditions that may exist in terrestrial locations such as launch pads, environmental test chambers or other sensitive areas. Commercial development of the technology could lead to a new family of environmental test instruments that would be small and portable, yet would give quick analyses of complex samples.

Drew, Russell C.↗

NASA NTRS2020

A Systematic Review of Local to Regional Yield Forecasting Approaches and Frequently Used Data Resources

Forecasting crop yields, or providing an expectation of ex-ante harvest amounts, is highly relevant to the whole agricultural production chain. Farmers can adapt their management, traders or insurers their pricing schemes, suppliers their stocks, logistic companies their routes, national authorities their food balance sheets to guide import or export and, finally, international aid organizations can mobilize reliefs. Evidence has grown in the literature that such forecasts with a meaningful lead time are possible on various geographic scales and for a broad range of crops. Here, we present a systematic review of the methods applied in end-of-season yield forecasting and three frequently used data sources: weather data, satellite data and crop masks. Our literature database comprises 362 studies (2004–2019) which were evaluated regarding methods, crops, regions, data sources, lead time and performance. Moreover, we present 24 sources of real-time and predictive weather data, 21 sources of remote sensing data and 16 crop masks. Yield forecasting in our literature sample has been performed for 44 crops in 71 countries, also including many non-staple crops, but with an apparent bias in regions and crops. Forecasting performance depends on various factors, including crop, region, method, lead time to harvest and input diversity. Our systematic review supports a broader application of locally successful approaches at larger scales by providing a comprehensive, accessible compendium of necessary information for yield forecasting. We discuss improvement potentials with respect to methodological approaches and available data sources. We additionally suggest standardization procedures for future forecasting studies and encourage studying additional crops and geographic regions. Implications of forecasts for different target groups on different scales and the adaptation towards climate change are also discussed.

Seasonal crop yield forecasting↗

NASA NTRS1981

Modeling of photodegradation in solar cell modules of substrate and superstrate design made with ethylene-vinyl acetate as pottant material

The rates of hydrogen abstraction by peroxy radicals were proven to be too slow for significant oxidation of the alkane substrate to be important. The numerical procedure, independent of our particular data base was verified by reproducing concentration time profiles for a model reaction set describing the cesium flare system in the upper atmosphere. Simulation was identical to that given in the literature. Experimental verification of the data base is to be attempted by weatherometry studies in the coming year. Work on the new diagnostic techniques was completed. The adapted automated viscometer was demonstrated to be an efficient and reliable tool for routine measurements of viscosity (molecular weight) changes in solid samples after batch solutions have been made up. The laser photolysis GC method for monitoring extremely low levels of oxidation in polymers proved to be impractical because the yields of carbon monoxide were too low for quantification. Much progress was made with the computer model. The reaction matrix was completely revised, resulting in a new scheme of 31 reactions and time, lifetimes in excess of ten years. The results to date lead us to some tentative observations.

Somersall, A. C.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Mars 2020 Rover Adaptive Caching Assembly: Caching Martian Samples for Potential Earth Return

The Adaptive Caching Assembly, part of the Sampling and Caching System on the Mars 2020 Rover, consists of multiple stations that together process sample tubes containing collected Martian material, either rock cores or soil samples, and prepares hermetically-sealed sample tubes for caching on the surface of Mars. There are 7 active degrees-of-freedom, as well as a large number of passive mechanisms within the Adaptive Caching Assembly that must operate in extreme Mars conditions (i.e., temperature and pressure). Hardware cleanliness requirements significantly drove design, assembly, and test operations of the Adaptive Caching Assembly, and were found to adversely affect hardware in some cases such that late design changes and revised cleanliness operations had to be implemented. While Adaptive Caching Assembly hardware was designed to accommodate dust, testing in a representative environment is important to validate functionality is not compromised.

Silverman, Milo↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Risk-Based Methodology for the Determination of Hall Thruster Performance Specifications

This work adapts manufacturing and metrology industry standards to create a risk-based approach for the determination of electric propulsion performance specifications. The developed process is applied to 208 total thrust measurements acquired using three different NASA Hall Effect Rocket with Magnet Shielding (HERMeS) Technology Demonstration Unit (TDU) 12.5-kW Hall thrusters in three different test facilities in order to generate thrust specifications at the 300 V/6.25 kW, 400 V/8.33 kW, 500 V/10.42 kW, and 600 V/12.5 kW operating conditions. These thrust specifications are used to perform a set of sample acceptance tests to illustrate the importance of adding additional conservatism using a parameter known of the Test Accuracy Ratio in order to control the risk to the thruster producer and consumer from false rejection and acceptance of thruster units.

HERMeS↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Risk-based Methodology for the Determination of Hall Thruster Performance Specifications

HERMeS↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Uncertainty Quantification of CFD Model Assumptions Against Sonic Boom Noise Prediction of a Commercial Supersonic Transport

This paper presents the results of uncertainty modeling of sonic boom noise generation from commercial supersonic transport considering the Spalart-Allmaras (SA) turbulence modeling parameters as well as Mach number, angle of attack and altitude. Sample generation and analysis for this uncertainty model was performed by UQPCE, which is a software package developed at the NASA Langley Research Center. To build the uncertainty model, 42 cases of sonic boom noise calculation were performed. Computation of the ground noise can be briefly summarized in two steps. First, the near field pressure waveforms are sampled from CFD calculation using the NASA Langley’s FUN3D solver. Second, this information is passed to an atmospheric propagation code, sBOOM, which solves an augmented Burger’s equation and simulates how the near field waveforms will change while passing through the atmosphere. The ground signature is further processed to obtain the perceived loudness, PLdB. Having a high spatial resolution near the shockwave in the CFD calculation is critical in sonic boom noise prediction. Because the variation in the input parameters for the current uncertainty quantification (UQ) study is likely to lead to change in shock location, angle and strength, the grid adaptation for shock capturing is independently applied for each condition. The final mesh used in the CFD calculation consists of approximately 420 million cells. The pressure signatures are sampled at three, four and five body lengths away from the aircraft to make sure the three dimensional effects around the aircraft are resolved. The results of the UQ analysis shows that within the three aleatory variables, the angle of attack had the most impact against ground noise, followed by the altitude and the Mach number. Between the two SA model parameters, the Kármán constant (𝜅) was significantly more important than the turbulent Prandtl number (𝜎), but these two parameters were only marginally significant in the overall prediction variance in ground noise. The UQ procedure explained in this paper can be widely applied to other model parameters.

Uncertainty Quantification↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Uncertainty Quantification of CFD Model Assumptions Against Sonic Boom Noise Prediction of a Commercial Supersonic Transport

This paper presents the results of uncertainty modeling of sonic boom noise generation from commercial supersonic transport considering the Spalart-Allmaras (SA) turbulence modeling parameters as well as Mach number, angle of attack and altitude. Sample generation and analysis for this uncertainty model was performed by UQPCE, which is a software package developed at the NASA Langley Research Center. To build the uncertainty model, 42 cases of sonic boom noise calculation were performed. Computation of the ground noise can be briefly summarized in two steps. First, the near field pressure waveforms are sampled from CFD calculation using the NASA Langley’s FUN3D solver. Second, this information is passed to an atmospheric propagation code, sBOOM, which solves an augmented Burger’s equation and simulates how the near field waveforms will change while passing through the atmosphere. The ground signature is further processed to obtain the perceived loudness, PLdB. Having a high spatial resolution near the shock wave in the CFD calculation is critical in sonic boom noise prediction. Because the variation in the input parameters for the current uncertainty quantification (UQ) study is likely to lead to change in shock location, angle and strength, the grid adaptation for shock capturing is independently applied for each condition. The final mesh used in the CFD calculation consists of approximately 420 million cells. The pressure signatures are sampled at three, four and five body lengths away from the aircraft to make sure the three dimensional effects around the aircraft are resolved. The results of the UQ analysis shows that within the three aleatory variables, the angle of attack had the most impact against ground noise, followed by the altitude and the Mach number. Between the two SA model parameters, the Kármán constant (𝜅) was significantly more important than the turbulent Prandtl number (𝜎), but these two parameters were only marginally significant in the overall prediction variance in ground noise. The UQ procedure explained in this paper can be widely applied to other model parameters.

Uncertainty Quantifications↗

NASA NTRS1994

NASA Lewis Research Center lean-, rich-burn materials test burner rig

The lean-, rich-burn materials test burner rig at NASA LeRC is used to evaluate the high temperature environmental durability of aerospace materials. The rig burns jet fuel and pressurized air, and sample materials can be subjected to both lean-burn and rich-burn environments. As part of NASA's Enabling Propulsion Materials (EPM) program, an existing rig was adapted to simulate the rich-burn quick-quench lean-burn (RQL) combustor concept which is being considered for the HSCT (high speed civil transport) aircraft. RQL materials requirements exceed that of current superalloys, thus ceramic matrix composites (CMC's) emerged as the leading candidate materials. The performance of these materials in the quasi reducing environment of the rich-burn section of the RQL is of fundamental importance to materials development. This rig was developed to conduct such studies, and its operation and capabilities are described.

Stearns, C. A.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Ribbon Synaptic Plasticity in Gravity Sensors of Rats Flown on Neurolab

Previous spaceflight experiments (Space Life Sciences-1 and -2 (SLS-1 and SLS-2)) first demonstrated the extraordinary ability of gravity sensor hair cells to change the number, kind, and distribution of connections (synapses) they make to other cells while in weightlessness. The number of synapses in hair cells in one part of the inner ear (the utricle) was markedly elevated on flight day 13 (FD13) of SLS-2. Unanswered questions, however, were whether these increases in synapses occur rapidly and whether they remain stable in weightlessness. The answers have implications for long-duration human space travel. If gravity sensors can adapt quickly, crews may be able to move easily between different gravity levels, since the sensors will adapt rapidly to weightlessness on the spacecraft and then back to Earth's gravity when the mission ends. This ability to adapt is also important for recovery from balance disorders. To further our understanding of this adaptive potential (a property called neuronal synaptic plasticity), the present Neurolab research was undertaken. Our experiment examined whether: (a) increases in synapses would remain stable throughout the flight, (b) changes in the number of synapses were uniform across different portions of the gravity sensors (the utricle and saccule), and (c) synaptic changes were similar for the different types of hair cells (Type I and Type II). Utricular and saccular maculae (the gravity-sensing portions of the inner ear) were collected in flight from rats on FD2 and FD14. Samples were also collected from control rats on the ground. Tissues were prepared for ultrastructural study. Hair cells and their ribbon synapses were examined in a transmission electron microscope. Synapses were counted in all hair cells in 50 consecutive sections that crossed the striolar zone. Results indicate that utricular hair cell synapses initially increased significantly in number in both types of hair cells by FD2. Counts declined by FD14, but the mean number of synapses in utricular Type II cells remained significantly higher than in the ground control rats. For saccular samples, synaptic number in Type I and Type II cells declined on FD2, but returned to near-baseline values by FD14. These findings indicate that: (a) synaptic plasticity occurs rapidly in weightlessness, and (b) synaptic changes are not identical for the two types of hair cells or for the two maculae.

Ross, Muriel D.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Data Fusion and Mining Techniques to Map Water Use and Drought across Spatial and Temporal Scales

As the world’s water resources come under increasing tension due to dual stressors of climate change and population growth, accurate knowledge of water consumption through evapotranspiration (ET) over a range in spatial scales will be critical in developing adaptation strategies. Remote sensing methods for monitoring consumptive water use (e.g, ET) are becoming increasingly important, especially in areas of significant water and food insecurity. One method to estimate ET from satellite-based methods, the Atmosphere Land Exchange Inverse (ALEXI) model uses the change in mid-morning land surface temperature to estimate the partitioning of sensible and latent heat fluxes which are then used to estimate daily ET. This presentation will outline several recent enhancements to the ALEXI modeling system, with a focus on global ET and drought monitoring. Until recently, ALEXI has been limited to areas with high resolution temporal sampling of geostationary sensors. The use of geostationary sensors makes global mapping a complicated process, especially for real-time applications, as data from as many as five different sensors are required to be ingested and harmonized to create a global mosaic. However, our research team has developed a new and novel method of using twice-daily observations from polar-orbiting sensors such as MODIS and VIIRS to estimate the mid-morning rise in LST that is used to drive the energy balance estimations within ALEXI. This allows the method to be applied globally using a single sensor (in this case, initially MODIS with a planned transition to VIIRS) rather than a global compositing of all available geostationary data. Other advantages of this new method include the higher spatial resolution provided by MODIS and VIIRS and the increased sampling at high latitudes where oblique view angles limit the utility of geostationary sensors. This presentation will focus on global applications for mapping water use and drought using data mining and data fusion across spatial scales extending from 5-km to 30-m “field-scale” estimates.

Christopher Hain↗

NASA NTRS1995

On-line estimation of error covariance parameters for atmospheric data assimilation

A simple scheme is presented for on-line estimation of covariance parameters in statistical data assimilation systems. The scheme is based on a maximum-likelihood approach in which estimates are produced on the basis of a single batch of simultaneous observations. Simple-sample covariance estimation is reasonable as long as the number of available observations exceeds the number of tunable parameters by two or three orders of magnitude. Not much is known at present about model error associated with actual forecast systems. Our scheme can be used to estimate some important statistical model error parameters such as regionally averaged variances or characteristic correlation length scales. The advantage of the single-sample approach is that it does not rely on any assumptions about the temporal behavior of the covariance parameters: time-dependent parameter estimates can be continuously adjusted on the basis of current observations. This is of practical importance since it is likely to be the case that both model error and observation error strongly depend on the actual state of the atmosphere. The single-sample estimation scheme can be incorporated into any four-dimensional statistical data assimilation system that involves explicit calculation of forecast error covariances, including optimal interpolation (OI) and the simplified Kalman filter (SKF). The computational cost of the scheme is high but not prohibitive; on-line estimation of one or two covariance parameters in each analysis box of an operational bozed-OI system is currently feasible. A number of numerical experiments performed with an adaptive SKF and an adaptive version of OI, using a linear two-dimensional shallow-water model and artificially generated model error are described. The performance of the nonadaptive versions of these methods turns out to depend rather strongly on correct specification of model error parameters. These parameters are estimated under a variety of conditions, including uniformly distributed model error and time-dependent model error statistics.

Dee, Dick P.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Biocybernetic Control of Vigilance Task Parameters

The major focus of the present proposal was to examine psychophysiological variables that are related to hazardous states of awareness induced by monitoring automated systems. With the increased use of automation in today's work environment, people's roles in the work place are being redefined from that of active participant to one of passive monitor. Although the introduction of automated systems has a number of benefits, there are also a number of disadvantages regarding the worker performance. Byrne and Parasuraman (1996) have argued for the use of psychophysiological measures in both the development and the implementation of adaptive automation. While both performance based and model based adaptive automation have been studied, the use of psychophysiological measures, especially EEG, offers the advantage of real time evaluation of the state of the subject. Previous investigations of the closed-loop adaptive automation system in our laboratory, supported by NASA, have employed a compensatory tracking task which involved the use of a joystick to maintain the position of a cursor in the middle of a video screen. This research demonstrated that, in an adaptive automation, closed-loop environment, subjects perform a tracking task better under a negative, compared to a positive, feedback condition. While tracking is comparable to some aspects of flying an airplane, it does not simulate the environment found in the cockpit of modern commercial airplanes. Since a large part of the flying responsibilities in commercial airplanes is automated, the primary responsibility of pilots is to monitor the automation and to respond when the automation fails. Because failures are relatively rare, pilots often suffer from hazardous states of awareness induced by long term vigilance of the automated system. Consequently, the aim of the current study was to investigate the ability of the closed-loop, adaptive automation system in a vigilance paradigm. It is also important to note that tracking involves a continuous, though low level, motor response. Since it is not clear how such activity might affect performance of the adaptive automation system, it was thought to be important to evaluate how the system functioned when there was minimal motor output by the subjects. The current study used the closed-loop system, developed at NASA-Langley Research Center, to control the state of awareness of subjects while they performed a vigilance task. Several experiments were conducted to examine the use of EEG feedback to control a target dimension used in the task. Changes in a subject's arousal, as defined by specific EEG indexes, produced stimulus changes known to affect task performance. In addition, different electrode sites, compared to previous research, were sampled to determine the optimum configuration with regard to the following criteria: (1) task performance and (2) EEG index.

Freeman, Frederick G.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Engineering Risk Assessment of Space Thruster Challenge Problem

The Engineering Risk Assessment (ERA) team at NASA Ames Research Center utilizes dynamic models with linked physics-of-failure analyses to produce quantitative risk assessments of space exploration missions. This paper applies the ERA approach to the baseline and extended versions of the PSAM Space Thruster Challenge Problem, which investigates mission risk for a deep space ion propulsion system with time-varying thruster requirements and operations schedules. The dynamic mission is modeled using a combination of discrete and continuous-time reliability elements within the commercially available GoldSim software. Loss-of-mission (LOM) probability results are generated via Monte Carlo sampling performed by the integrated model. Model convergence studies are presented to illustrate the sensitivity of integrated LOM results to the number of Monte Carlo trials. A deterministic risk model was also built for the three baseline and extended missions using the Ames Reliability Tool (ART), and results are compared to the simulation results to evaluate the relative importance of mission dynamics. The ART model did a reasonable job of matching the simulation models for the baseline case, while a hybrid approach using offline dynamic models was required for the extended missions. This study highlighted that state-of-the-art techniques can adequately adapt to a range of dynamic problems.

Assessment↗

NASA NTRS2009

Developing Dual Polarization Applications For 45th Weather Squadron's (45 WS) New Weather Radar: A Cooperative Project With The National Space Science and Technology Center (NSSTC)

A new weather radar is being acquired for use in support of America s space program at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, NASA Kennedy Space Center, and Patrick AFB on the east coast of central Florida. This new radar includes dual polarization capability, which has not been available to 45 WS previously. The 45 WS has teamed with NSSTC with funding from NASA Marshall Spaceflight Flight Center to improve their use of this new dual polarization capability when it is implemented operationally. The project goals include developing a temperature profile adaptive scan strategy, developing training materials, and developing forecast techniques and tools using dual polarization products. The temperature profile adaptive scan strategy will provide the scan angles that provide the optimal compromise between volume scan rate, vertical resolution, phenomena detection, data quality, and reduced cone-of-silence for the 45 WS mission. The mission requirements include outstanding detection of low level boundaries for thunderstorm prediction, excellent vertical resolution in the atmosphere electrification layer between 0 C and -20 C for lightning forecasting and Lightning Launch Commit Criteria evaluation, good detection of anvil clouds for Lightning Launch Commit Criteria evaluation, reduced cone-of-silence, fast volume scans, and many samples per pulse for good data quality. The training materials will emphasize the appropriate applications most important to the 45 WS mission. These include forecasting the onset and cessation of lightning, forecasting convective winds, and hopefully the inference of electrical fields in clouds. The training materials will focus on annotated radar imagery based on products available to the 45 WS. Other examples will include time sequenced radar products without annotation to simulate radar operations. This will reinforce the forecast concepts and also allow testing of the forecasters. The new dual polarization techniques and tools will focus on the appropriate applications for the 45 WS mission. These include forecasting the onset of lightning, the cessation of lightning, convective winds, and hopefully the inference of electrical fields in clouds. This presentation will report on the results achieved so far in the project.

Roeder, W.P.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Real Options Analysis for Valuation of Climate Adaptation Pathways With Application to Transit Infrastructure

Climate change and sea level rise (SLR) are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of coastal flood events, posing risks to coastal communities and infrastructure. While regional climate adaptation investments can provide substantive flood protection, existing plans often neglect uncertainty in future climate conditions and adaptation performance, consequently neglecting the option value of flexibly implementing proposed projects. Addressing this gap, we develop and employ a generalizable real options analysis (ROA) valuation framework that considers how uncertainty in adaptation project costs, SLR, flood severity, and flood losses inform the full range of adaptation performance outcomes. We further propose and apply a novel, computationally efficient flood loss sampling algorithm to estimate the consequences of randomly arriving coastal flood events. We apply this ROA framework to assess the option value of flexibly timing adaptation investments over time, investigating an adaptation pathway proposed by the City of Boston from the perspective of the regional transit system manager. Our results suggest that flexible implementation can provide significant option value in the near-to mid-term(>30 years), with highest option values under low-probability, high consequence scenarios. Our results also suggest adaptation pathway performance in the latter half of the 21stcenturyis most sensitive to uncertainty in sea level rise, flood loss estimates, and flood frequency, underscoring the importance of uncertainty quantification in the long-term valuation of adaptation investments.

Michael V. Martello↗