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DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty-Guided Prediction Horizon of Phase-Resolved Ocean Wave Forecasting Under Data Sparsity: Experimental and Numerical Evaluation

Accurate short-term wave forecasting is critical for the safe and efficient operation of marine structures that rely on real-time, phase-resolved ocean wave information for control and monitoring purposes (e.g., digital twins). These systems often depend on environmental sensors (e.g., waverider buoys, wave-sensing LIDAR). Challenges arise when upstream sensor data are missing, sparse, or phase-shifted due to drift. This study investigates the performance of two machine learning models, time-series dense encoder (TiDE) and long short-term memory (LSTM), for forecasting phase-resolved ocean surface elevations under varying degrees of data degradation. We introduce the τ-trimming algorithm, which adapts the prediction horizon based on uncertainty thresholds derived from historical forecasts. Numerical wave tank (NWT) and wave basin experiments are used to benchmark model performance under short- and long-term data masking, spatially coarse sensor grids, and upstream phase shifts. Results show under a 50% probability of upstream data loss, the τ-trimmed TiDE model achieves a 46% reduction in error at the most upstream target, compared to 22% for LSTM. Furthermore, phase misalignment in upstream data introduces a near-linear increase in forecast error. Under moderate model settings, a ±3 s misalignment increases the mean absolute error by approximately 0.5 m, while the same error is accumulated at ±4 s using the more conservative approach. These findings inform the design of resilient, uncertainty-aware wave forecasting systems suited for realistic offshore sensing environments.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2016

Automated Dynamic Demand Response Implementation on a Micro-grid

In this paper, we describe a system for real-time automated Dynamic and Sustainable Demand Response with sparse data consumption prediction implemented on the University of Southern California campus microgrid. Supply side approaches to resolving energy supply-load imbalance do not work at high levels of renewable energy penetration. Dynamic Demand Response (D 2 R) is a widely used demand-side technique to dynamically adjust electricity consumption during peak load periods. Our D 2 R system consists of accurate machine learning based energy consumption forecasting models that work with sparse data coupled with fast and sustainable load curtailment optimization algorithms that provide the ability to dynamically adapt to changing supply-load imbalances in near real-time. Our Sustainable DR (SDR) algorithms attempt to distribute customer curtailment evenly across sub-intervals during a DR event and avoid expensive demand peaks during a few sub-intervals. It also ensures that each customer is penalized fairly in order to achieve the targeted curtailment. We develop near linear-time constant-factor approximation algorithms along with Polynomial Time Approximation Schemes (PTAS) for SDR curtailment that minimizes the curtailment error defined as the difference between the target and achieved curtailment values. Our SDR curtailment problem is formulated as an Integer Linear Program that optimally matches customers to curtailment strategies during a DR event while also explicitly accounting for customer strategy switching overhead as a constraint. We demonstrate the results of our D 2 R system using real data from experiments performed on the USC smartgrid and show that 1) our prediction algorithms can very accurately predict energy consumption even with noisy or missing data and 2) our curtailment algorithms deliver DR with extremely low curtailment errors in the 0.01-0.05 kWh range.

Kuppannagari, Sanmukh R.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Artificial Intelligence-Driven Management of Sustainable Energy Resources: Visibility, Operation, and Control

The rapid global transition toward sustainable energy resources (SERs) is reshaping how modern power systems are observed, optimized, and controlled. While SERs have significantly advanced decarbonization, their weather dependence, variability, and inverter-dominated characteristics challenge traditional, centralized, and deterministic grid operation. At the same time, the proliferation of high-resolution data from inverters, smart meters, and sensors offers unprecedented visibility into system dynamics. Yet, it also exceeds the analytical capability of conventional model-based approaches. Artificial intelligence (AI) provides a new foundation for addressing these challenges by bridging physical laws with data-driven learning, enabling accurate state awareness, adaptive operation, and coordinated control across distributed assets. This article examines how AI transforms the management of SER-rich power systems along three critical dimensions: 1) enhancing visibility by inferring behind-the-meter (BTM) activities, assessing SER flexibility, and reconstructing system states from sparse or noisy measurements; 2) improving operation through AI-enhanced SER service provision, volt/var control (VVC), and dynamic operating envelopes (DOE) for efficiency and security; and 3) advancing control by embedding learning-based intelligence into inverter coordination, voltage and frequency regulation, and long-term dispatch. Together, these developments reveal how AI can convert the variability of SERs from an operational challenge into a source of flexibility, resilience, and intelligence, paving the way toward sustainable, adaptive, and self-optimizing power systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Global field reconstruction from sparse sensors with Veronoi tessellation-assisted deep learning

Achieving accurate and robust global situational awareness of a complex time-evolving field from a limited number of sensors has been a longstanding challenge. This reconstruction problem is especially difficult when sensors are sparsely positioned in a seemingly random or unorganized manner, which is often encountered in a range of scientific and engineering problems. Moreover, these sensors can be in motion and can become online or offline over time. The key leverage in addressing this scientific issue is the wealth of data accumulated from the sensors. As a solution to this problem, we propose a data-driven spatial field recovery technique founded on a structured grid-based deep-learning approach for arbitrary positioned sensors of any numbers. It should be noted that the naïve use of machine learning becomes prohibitively expensive for global field reconstruction and is furthermore not adaptable to an arbitrary number of sensors. In the present work, we consider the use of Voronoi tessellation to obtain a structured-grid representation from sensor locations enabling the computationally tractable use of convolutional neural networks. One of the central features of the present method is its compatibility with deep-learning based super-resolution reconstruction techniques for structured sensor data that are established for image processing. The proposed reconstruction technique is demonstrated for unsteady wake flow, geophysical data, and three-dimensional turbulence. The current framework is able to handle an arbitrary number of moving sensors, and thereby overcomes a major limitation with existing reconstruction methods. The presented technique opens a new pathway towards the practical use of neural networks for real-time global field estimation.

Fukami, Kai↗

DOE OSTI2015

Petascale solvers for anisotropic PDEs in atmospheric modelling on GPU clusters

Memory bound applications such as solvers for large sparse systems of equations remain a challenge for GPUs. Fast solvers should be based on numerically efficient algorithms and implemented such that global memory access is minimised. To solve systems with trillions ( O ( 10 12 ) ) unknowns the code has to make efficient use of several million individual processor cores on large GPU clusters. We describe the multi-GPU implementation of two algorithmically optimal iterative solvers for anisotropic PDEs which are encountered in (semi-) implicit time stepping procedures in atmospheric modelling. In this application the condition number is large but independent of the grid resolution and both methods are asymptotically optimal, albeit with different absolute performance. In particular, an important constant in the discretisation is the CFL number; only the multigrid solver is robust to changes in this constant. We parallelise the solvers and adapt them to the specific features of GPU architectures, paying particular attention to efficient global memory access. We achieve a performance of up to 0.78 PFLOPs when solving an equation with 0.55 · 10 12 unknowns on 16384 GPUs; this corresponds to about 3% of the theoretical peak performance of the machine and we use more than 40% of the peak memory bandwidth with a Conjugate Gradient (CG) solver. Although the other solver, a geometric multigrid algorithm, has a slightly worse performance in terms of FLOPs per second, overall it is faster as it needs less iterations to converge; the multigrid algorithm can solve a linear PDE with half a trillion unknowns in about one second.

Computer Science↗

DOE OSTI2016

An Adaptive Mesh Algorithm: Mesh Structure and Generation

The purpose of Adaptive Mesh Refinement is to minimize spatial errors over the computational space not to minimize the number of computational elements. The additional result of the technique is that it may reduce the number of computational elements needed to retain a given level of spatial accuracy. Adaptive mesh refinement is a computational technique used to dynamically select, over a region of space, a set of computational elements designed to minimize spatial error in the computational model of a physical process. The fundamental idea is to increase the mesh resolution in regions where the physical variables are represented by a broad spectrum of modes in k-space, hence increasing the effective global spectral coverage of those physical variables. In addition, the selection of the spatially distributed elements is done dynamically by cyclically adjusting the mesh to follow the spectral evolution of the system. Over the years three types of AMR schemes have evolved; block, patch and locally refined AMR. In block and patch AMR logical blocks of various grid sizes are overlaid to span the physical space of interest, whereas in locally refined AMR no logical blocks are employed but locally nested mesh levels are used to span the physical space. The distinction between block and patch AMR is that in block AMR the original blocks refine and coarsen entirely in time, whereas in patch AMR the patches change location and zone size with time. The type of AMR described herein is a locally refi ned AMR. In the algorithm described, at any point in physical space only one zone exists at whatever level of mesh that is appropriate for that physical location. The dynamic creation of a locally refi ned computational mesh is made practical by a judicious selection of mesh rules. With these rules the mesh is evolved via a mesh potential designed to concentrate the nest mesh in regions where the physics is modally dense, and coarsen zones in regions where the physics is modally sparse.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗