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Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation for Dryland Farming Systems in Zimbabwe: A Stakeholder-Driven Integrated Multi-Model Assessment

Decision makers need accurate information to address climate variability and change and accelerate transformation to sustainability. A stakeholder-driven, science-based multi-model approach has been developed and used by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) to generate actionable information for adaptation planning processes. For a range of mid-century climate projections—likely to be hotter, drier, and more variable—contrasting future socio-economic scenarios (Representative Agricultural Pathways, RAPs) were co-developed with stakeholders to portray a sustainable development scenario and a rapid economic growth pathway. The unique characteristic of this application is the integration of a multi-modeling approach with stakeholder engagement to co-develop scenarios and adaptation strategies. Distribution of outcomes were simulated with climate, crop, livestock, and economic impact assessment models for smallholder crop livestock farmers in a typical dryland agro-ecological zone in Zimbabwe, characterized by low and erratic rainfall and nutrient depleted soils. Results showed that in Nkayi District, Western Zimbabwe, climate change would threaten most of the farms, and, in particular, those with large cattle herds due to feed shortages. Adaptation strategies that showed the most promise included diversification using legume production, soil fertility improvement, and investment in conducive market environments. The switch to more legumes in the farming systems reduced the vulnerability of the very poor as well as the more resourced farmers. Overall, the sustainable development scenario consistently addressed institutional failures and motivated productivity-enhancing, environmentally sound technologies and inclusive development approaches. This yielded more favorable outcomes than investment in quick economic wins from commercializing agriculture.

Climate change adaptation

Thermomechanical Modeling of Woven Materials With Particle-Based, Explicit-Fiber Simulations

Fiber-based materials are extensively used to protect spacecraft during entry. Insulative fibers, often in a fiber network or woven, provide rigidity, strength, and control of material anisotropy and density. Woven thermal protection materials, such as ADEPT (Adaptable, Deployable Entry and Placement Technology), 3D-MAT (3-Dimensional Multifunctional Ablative Thermal Protection), and 3MDCP (3D Woven Mid-Density Carbon Phenolic), enable missions with stronger and denser materials for entry profiles with high shear and heat flux. Vulnerabilities to woven thermal protection materials include manufacturing-induced material property variation, and impact from micrometeoroids. Simulating woven materials under these conditions require models that can resolve hierarchal structures, thermomechanical behavior, and failure. To address this, we simulate weave thermal conduction and mechanical deformation. We simulate the full weave with a coarse-grained yarn model is presented. The model combines a validated, high-resolution single 3MDCP yarn model and phenolic resin model. Instead of modeling every fiber, each yarn ply with order 10, instead of order 1000, fibers. The discrete element bonded particle model (DEM-BPM) of fibers captures the thermal and mechanical behavior within and between fibers. We study the proportion of heat transfer and stress via the contact network, fiber bonds, and overall weave geometry.

bonded particle

U.S. Department of Energy Competitiveness Improvement Project (CIP) 2025 Prototype Manufacture Awardee: XFlow Energy

Vertical-axis wind turbines offer a compelling path to low-cost, reliable distributed energy that can compete with utility prices for businesses, landowners, and municipalities in rural areas. They generate power by using a main rotor shaft perpendicular to the ground to pick up wind from different directions without a yaw mechanism. However, previous commercialization attempts struggled to account for the unsteady aerodynamics of this design, leading to low power production and/or premature structural failure. To address these challenges, Competitiveness Improvement Project recipient XFlow Energy is building on work completed during three previous CIP funding awards to develop a 30-kW vertical-axis wind turbine that achieves both low costs and high energy output.

17 WIND ENERGY

High throughput battery failure experimental platform

Addressing the need to increase the sample set to understand the causes of lithium battery thermal runaway, we conceived of an experimental platform with capability to increase the number of runaway experiments (currently 3-5 per week), while also collecting detailed electrochemical impedance spectroscopy measurements (EIS). Once expanded, the platform would enable data collection on 10s to 100s of cells that all experience runaway, thereby creating a statistical database necessary to identify early indication of risk. A primary containment unit to house cylindrical cells of variety NMC811 and of size 21700 (21 mm diameter by 70 mm length) was designed with features such as debris containment, preloaded cells in an exchangeable port, nitrogen ventilation, and exhaust containment. We performed the first overcharge abuse experiments of several 21700 cells, handpicked because of different initial EIS, and demonstrated that EIS changes dramatically during early stages of overcharge, but in a different manner than previous pouch cell experiments. The abuse experiments also revealed the discharge pattern and debris field created during runaway, as well as the cell temperature control and overheat, that must be considered in the primary containment apparatus. We designed and built a switching relay system to permit measurement of EIS without an active charging circuit, and created instrument control software for charging, EIS, and cell temperature control. The late-start funding was insufficient to fully construct the primary containment unit, but the foundational design and knowhow is available for any future work.

25 ENERGY STORAGE

Global Failure Modes in Composite Structures

Composite materials provide well-known advantages for space and aeronautical applications in terms of strength and rigidity to weight ratios and other mechanical properties. As a consequence, their use has experienced a constant increase in the past decades and it is anticipated that this trend will be maintained in the near future. At the same time, being these materials relatively new compared to metals, and having failure characteristics completely different from them, their damage growth and their failure mechanisms are not as well understood in a predictive sense. For example, while in metals fracture produces "clean" cracks with their well defined analytically stress fields at the crack tip, composite fracture is a more complex phenomenon. Instead of a crack, we confront a "damage zone" that may include fiber breakage, fiber microbuckling, fiber pullout, matrix cracking, delamination, debonding or any combination of all these different mechanisms. These phenomena are prevalent in any failure process through an aircraft structure, whether one addresses a global failure such as the ripping of a fuselage or wing section, or whether one is concerned with the failure initiation near a thickness change at stringers or other reinforcement. Thus the topic that has been under consideration has wide application in any real structure and is considered an essential contribution to the predictive failure analysis capability for aircraft containing composite components. The heterogeneity and the anisotropy of composites are not only advantageous but essential characteristics, yet these same features provide complex stress fields, especially in the presence of geometrical discontinuities such as notches, holes or cutouts or structural elements such as stiffeners, stringers, etc. To properly address the interaction between a damage/crack front and a hole with a stringer it is imperative that the stress and deformation fields of the former be (sufficiently well) characterized. The question of "scaling" is an essential concern in any structural materials investigation. For example, experiments in the past have shown that the "strength" of a composite depends on hole size. As a consequence the validity of traditional fracture mechanics concepts applied to composite materials failure must be questioned. The size of the fibers, the dimensions of the laminae, etc. together with the fact that, because of the layered anisotropy, the stress field is no longer two-dimensional, prevent the otherwise obviously confident use of "similarity concepts". Therefore, the question needs to be raised of whether in composites "size matters or not", i.e., whether the results obtained in a laboratory using small coupons are truly representative of the situation involving a full scale component.

Knauss, W. G.

Z Facility Sustainment Status (November FY 2024) [Slides]

FY24 sustainment project list has been revised resulting in sixteen projects. Total budget for the finalized project list is $9,570,968 (includes FY23 Carryover and FY24). Key factors for project selection included: risk mitigation to address operations highest failure risk subsystems, purchase of long lead parts to address life limited parts, and completion of multi phase sustainment projects initiated in prior year. Given the backlog of projects and limited FY24 funding, there are identified projects that are not included in the final project list that could reduce future Z facility failure risk. Should additional budget become available, these identified projects can be kicked off.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY

Redundancy relations and robust failure detection

All failure detection methods are based on the use of redundancy, that is on (possible dynamic) relations among the measured variables. Consequently the robustness of the failure detection process depends to a great degree on the reliability of the redundancy relations given the inevitable presence of model uncertainties. The problem of determining redundancy relations which are optimally robust in a sense which includes the major issues of importance in practical failure detection is addressed. A significant amount of intuition concerning the geometry of robust failure detection is provided.

Chow, E. Y.

Air/Oil Seals R and D at AlliedSignal

AlliedSignal aerospace company is committed to significantly improving the reliabilities of air/oil seals in their gas turbine engines. One motivation for this is that aircraft cabin air quality can be affected by the performance of mainshaft air/oil seals. In the recent past, coking related failure modes have been the focus of air/oil seal R&D at AlliedSignal. Many significant advances have been made to combat coke related failures, with some more work continuing in this area. This years R&D begins to address other commin failure modes. Among them, carbon seal "blistering" has been a chronic problem facing the sealing industry for many decades. AlliedSignal has launched an aggressive effort this year to solve this problem for our aerospace rated carbon seals in a short (one to two year) timeframe. Work also continues in developing more user-friendly tools and data for seal analysis & design. Innovations in seal cooling continue. Nominally non-contacting hydropad sealing concept is being developed for aerospace applications. Finally, proprietary work is in planning stages for development of a seal with the aggressive aim of zero oil leakage.

Ullah, M. Rifat

Interim Development of new Class B Code Case with Variable Design Lifetime and enhanced design rules to guard against cyclic structural failure mode

This report summarizes updates on the ongoing development of the new American Society of Mechanical Engineers Section III, Division 5, Class B rules to address the potential failure modes of Class B components. An initial design-by-analysis approach and supporting design rules are presented. The elastic-perfectly plastic (EPP) analysis approach has been adopted for primary stress limit and ratcheting check to prevent the component failure against the structural failure mode against primary load and strain accumulation due to cyclic loads. The creep-fatigue damage assessment uses explicitly defined elastic follow-up calculated from the stress concentration region of given component. Damage fraction calculation uses a novel coupled approach to capture the influence of the elastic follow-up and provide adequate conservatism for Class B components. The proposed Class B rules does not use the stress classification approach and uses the combined loads to assess component.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Read disturb errors in a CMOS static RAM chip

Results are reported from an extensive investigation into pattern-sensitive soft errors (read disturb errors) in the TCC244 CMOS static RAM chip. The TCC244, also known as the SA2838, is a radiation-hard single-event-upset-resistant 4 x 256 memory chip. This device is being used by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in the Galileo and Magellan spacecraft, which will have encounters with Jupiter and Venus, respectively. Two aspects of the part's design are shown to result in the occurrence of read disturb errors: the transparence of the signal path from the address pins to the array of cells, and the large resistance in the Vdd and Vss lines of the cells in the center of the array. Probe measurements taken during a read disturb failure illustrate how address skews and the data pattern in the chip combine to produce a bit flip. A capacitive charge pump formed by the individual cell capacitances and the resistance in the supply lines pumps down both the internal cell voltage and the local supply voltage until a bit flip occurs.

Wood, Steven H.

Risk Trade-Space Analysis for Safe Human Expeditions to Mars

We assessed the integrated safety, health, and performance risk to crews on long-duration missions, specifically to Mars. Using a systems approach rather than one focused on individual countermeasures, we examined the trade space around several such risks to identify high-potential risk mitigation strategies and characterize aspects of Mars mission architectures that could lower aggregated risk. Current Mars Design Reference missions would require durations well over two years and would increase crew exposure to radiation and microgravity well beyond ISS levels, likely resulting in significantly reduced performance beyond our current capability to mitigate that could jeopardize mission success. A “fast Mars transit” round-trip mission concept was studied using an innovative flight dynamics approach to quantify the minimum total mission energy required for a Mars transit with total mission duration less than 400 days. This approach holds promise for sending humans to Mars and returning them safely with acceptable, potentially mitigatable, exposure to microgravity and radiation using current or near-term technologies. The fast transit concept would also result in fewer time-driven vehicle failures and enable sustainable deployment of humans and infrastructure to Mars on a regular cadence, allowing steady exploration and colonization of Mars. Finally, we conclude that reliance on the Low Earth Orbit (LEO) mission operations paradigm – i.e., one of near-complete real-time dependence on experts at Mission Control to manage the combined state of the mission, vehicle, and crew – is high risk given the communication delays and limited resupply of any Mars mission, and this risk is not eliminated by the shorter missions durations of fast transit scenarios. Based on historical trends, it is highly likely that the crew will face a high-consequence problem of uncertain origin during Mars transit when ground support will be greatly reduced. While it may be possible to reduce anomaly rates through improved reliability analysis and testing, and to reduce anomaly impacts through added robustness, such mitigations address only known failure modes and known uncertainties. Therefore, a radical shift in the Human-Systems Integration Architecture (HSIA) that defines the operational paradigm, systems design, and human-systems interactions is required to improve the risk posture to an acceptable level regardless of mission duration.

Mars

Hydrogen Detection Strategies to Support H2@SCALE - The NREL Sensor Laboratory

Hydrogen represents a major pathway to decarbonize and stabilize the national and international energy industry and select manufacturing markets. To facilitate the development of hydrogen markets, the US Department of Energy initiated H2@Scale to bring together stakeholders to advance affordable hydrogen production, transport, storage, and utilization to increase revenue opportunities in multiple energy sectors. One major impediment to hydrogen implementation is cost. To expedite the use of hydrogen in energy and other markets, the United States announced in 2021 the Hydrogen Shot, which seeks to reduce the cost of clean hydrogen by 80% to $1 per 1 kilogram in 1 decade ("1 1 1"). As the cost of hydrogen drops, new applications will emerge that will require unique configurations of existing equipment and infrastructure, and eventually lead to advances in the generation and utilization of hydrogen. As the hydrogen economy expands, sensors and detection methods will need to adapt to changing infrastructure demands to address the primary targets of health & safety, emissions monitoring, and process control. The NREL Sensor Laboratory is playing a pivotal role in advancing the use of hydrogen sensors and detection methodologies in each of these categories to support DOE's mission for safe and efficient utilization in emerging markets. Health & safety monitors are required to ensure that operators and facilities can react to unintended hydrogen releases, either as GH2, LH2, or as a constituent of blends (e.g., natural gas or ammonia). Current detection methodologies focus on safety applications to detect near its lower flammable limit (4 vol %), and typically include point sensors in applications such as fixed or mobile detectors (e.g., personal gas monitors). Methodologies amenable for area detection include acoustic, emerging optical imaging methods, and flame detectors. Comparable detection strategies can be utilized for emissions monitoring and quantization, however few methods can simultaneously cover both low (emissions) and high (health & safety) levels. Deployment of emission level detectors will be required to 1) reduce product loss through small but potentially significant leaks from an environmental or cost perspective, 2) reduce downtime of high demand systems by early identification of eminent system failures (leaks through pump or compressor seals indicative of impending failure), and 3) address potential emission monitoring requirements that may be set by regulating bodies. The first two points should be adopted by industry to reduce the cost-of-goods-sold. The third main category for hydrogen detection relates to process control and may be advantageous for many existing applications. Two main applications are emerging. For example, the purity requirements for hydrogen that is dispensed from refueling systems for hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV) is rigorously regulated by the Standard SAE J2719, which prescribes maximum allowable levels of multiple impurities in the hydrogen fuel and must be verified by a regulatory body. Hydrogen contaminant detectors (HCD) integrated to the fueling station can assure this compliance. HCDs must be able operate in 100% H2 backgrounds and be able to distinguish between multiple contaminants at low ppm to low ppb levels. Secondly, as a strategy to decarbonize the natural gas grid, there are proposals to blend hydrogen with natural gas. This blending will affect transport applications (pipeline infrastructure), stationary combustion systems (turbines), and consumer and commercial appliances. In the short-term, hydrogen levels up to 20% are proposed. Variations in the hydrogen level can have dramatic impact on the combustion process and on the potential response of safety sensors. These mixtures may be regulated so that the concentration at a delivery point must be monitored with high precision. However, routine maintenance may introduce background gases such as ambient air (with water) or maintenance gases (introduced with welding processes or adhesive outgassing.) Therefore, the detection methodology must be robust enough to recover or respond to various contaminants. Several reviews can be found in literature addressing sensing and detection technologies, including their limitations and applications. However, for most applications, limitations can be alleviated by combining various detection techniques either through system integration or implementation of machine learning methods (artificial intelligence). In this presentation, we will discuss several applications, highlight their current approach for hydrogen detection, and suggest detection strategies to supplement their limitations.

ENERGY STORAGE,HYDROGEN

Uniform Mechanical Loading Can Test for Nonuniform Loading Durability

In this work, we present a method to evaluate the equivalency between any module mechanical loading conditions. The method is developed to address the specific failure mode of glass fracture and is based on Weibull analysis and weakest link theory. It considers the varying stress profile across the module to calculate the probability of glass fracture, which is used as the metric of equivalency. An idealized nonuniform loading scheme is employed to demonstrate the method and introduce the concept of the equivalent uniform load factor: a factor applied to the maximum pressure of the nonuniform load to obtain the equivalent uniform load value. It is demonstrated that this factor is less than unity for all nonuniform load cases considered, including snow and various characters of wind loading. These significant results suggest that uniform loading may be reliably, and practically, employed to evaluate photovoltaic module glass for nonuniform loading durability.

14 SOLAR ENERGY

Euro-Deterrent: Analysis of Proposals for a European Nuclear Arsenal (CNSIS Paper)

The idea of a “Euro-deterrent”—a nuclear arsenal under European control and mandated to protect multiple European countries—has been proposed many times as a means for European self-defense independent of United States security guarantees under the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). This paper examines not only the concept’s multiple guises, but the reasons for their failure. It will address the idea of a Franco-British umbrella, a French umbrella, a European “pool”, and the nuclear arsenal of a hypothetical “united Europe”. Reasons for rejection largely fall into three categories: sovereignty concerns, credibility gaps, and a desire to preserve existing norms and structures. This paper concludes that the Euro-deterrent will likely remain only hypothetical unless the US unequivocally signals its intent to withdraw its nuclear umbrella from Europe, thereby forcing European countries to build a new defense arrangement.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF

Study of certain tether safety issues. Continuation of investigation of electrodynamic stabilization and control of long orbiting tethers, volume 1

The behavior of long tethers (10-100 km) in space are addressed under two failure situations with potential safety impact: instantaneous jamming of the reel controlling the tether during deployment and cutting of the tether due to a meteor strike or other similar phenomena. Dual and multiple mass point models were used in the SAO SKYHOOK program to determine this behavior. The results of the program runs were verified analytically or by comparison with previously verified results. The study included the effects of tether damping and air drag where appropriate. Most runs were done with the tether system undamped since we believe this best represents the true behavior of the tether. Means for controlling undesirable behavior of the tether, such as viscous dampers in the subsatellite, were also studied.

Colombo, G.

Failure analysis of composite laminates including biaxial compression

This report describes a continued effort on the development and application of the tensor polynomial failure criterion for composite laminate analysis. In particular, emphasis is given to the design, construction and testing of a cross-beam laminate configuration to obtain "pure' biaxial compression failure. The purpose of this test case was to provide to permit "closure' of the cubic form of the failure surface in the 1-2 compression-compression quadrant. This resulted in a revised set of interaction strength parameters and the construction of a failure surface which can be used with confidence for strength predictions, assuming a plane stress state exists. Furthermore, the problem of complex conjugate roots which can occur in some failure regions is addressed and an "engineering' interpretation is provided. Results are presented illustrating this behavior and the methodology for overcoming this problem is discussed.

Tennyson, R. C.

Multiaxial and thermomechanical fatigue considerations in damage tolerant design

In considering damage tolerant design concepts for gas turbine hot section components, several challenging concerns arise: Complex multiaxial loading situations are encountered; Thermomechanical fatigue loading involving very wide temperature ranges is imposed on components; Some hot section materials are extremely anisotropic; and coatings and environmental interactions play an important role in crack propagation. The effects of multiaxiality and thermomechanical fatigue are considered from the standpoint of their impact on damage tolerant design concepts. Recently obtained research results as well as results from the open literature are examined and their implications for damage tolerant design are discussed. Three important needs required to advance analytical capabilities in support of damage tolerant design become readily apparent: (1) a theoretical basis to account for the effect of nonproportional loading (mechanical and mechanical/thermal); (2) the development of practical crack growth parameters that are applicable to thermomechanical fatigue situations; and (3) the development of crack growth models that address multiple crack failures.

Leese, G. E.

Experiments in structural dynamics and control using a grid

Future spacecraft are being conceived that are highly flexible and of extreme size. The two features of flexibility and size pose new problems in control system design. Since large scale structures are not testable in ground based facilities, the decision on component placement must be made prior to full-scale tests on the spacecraft. Control law research is directed at solving problems of inadequate modelling knowledge prior to operation required to achieve peak performance. Another crucial problem addressed is accommodating failures in systems with smart components that are physically distributed on highly flexible structures. Parameter adaptive control is a method of promise that provides on-orbit tuning of the control system to improve performance by upgrading the mathematical model of the spacecraft during operation. Two specific questions are answered in this work. They are: What limits does on-line parameter identification with realistic sensors and actuators place on the ultimate achievable performance of a system in the highly flexible environment? Also, how well must the mathematical model used in on-board analytic redundancy be known and what are the reasonable expectations for advanced redundancy management schemes in the highly flexible and distributed component environment?

Montgomery, R. C.