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Opportunities for agrivoltaic systems to achieve synergistic food-energy-environmental needs and address sustainability goals

Achieving decarbonization goals to address global climate change and increasing energy needs requires significant continued investments in solar energy. The expansion of utility-scale solar development across the globe has increased the pressure on land resources for energy generation and other land uses (e.g., agriculture, biodiversity conservation). To address this growing issue, greater emphasis has been placed on solar development strategies that maximize the benefits of solar energy generation and multiple ecosystem services, such as the development of agrivoltaics systems that co-locate solar energy production and various forms of conservation and agricultural land uses. The purpose of this paper is to systematically synthesize the potential ecosystem services of agrivoltaics and summarize how these development strategies could address several United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Our review will focus on four broad potential ecosystem services of agrivoltaics: (1) energy and economic benefits; (2) agricultural provisioning services of food production and animal husbandry; (3) biodiversity conservation; and (4) regulating ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration and water and soil conservation. In particular, we will highlight the state of the science, challenges, and knowledge gaps that represent opportunities for further study to better understand how solar energy deployment can facilitate sustainable development.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Chapter 4: "Waste"-to-Energy for Decarbonization - Transforming Nut Shells Into Carbon-Negative Electricity

This chapter presents a study demonstrating waste pistachio nut shells as a renewable feedstock for climate-friendly electricity generation via industrial gasification technology. The study includes biomass feedstock characterization (i.e., pistachio waste critical material attributes), process variability (i.e., bulk material handling), and overall operational reliability and conversion performance through extended testing. Additionally, techno-economic analysis (TEA) and life cycle assessment (LCA) were performed to assess the economic feasibility and environmental impact of the technology to transform agricultural waste to biopower. For processing pistachio waste material, among critical material attributes, fines content in the biomass (<1/4") had the largest potential to reduce the operating time of the gasifiers due to plugging. Pelletizing fines and co-feeding them with the mixed pistachio waste increased the average feed density, feed rate, and biochar production. Compared to pine wood chips, mixed pistachio waste yielded higher biochar quantity but slightly reduced quality. In general, a systematic Quality by Design methodology is the preferred approach for designing preprocessing and material conveyance systems, where a downstream technology (end user) for the produced intermediate is specified at the outset. TEA results show that the biochar production rate and selling price had an overwhelming impact on the modeled Minimum Electricity Selling Price (MESP), which ranged from 35.5 to 39.9 cents/kWh for the cases studied (16 h/day operational basis). Moreover, LCA results show that the valorization of pistachio shells for biopower generation is a "carbon negative" process that can help decarbonize the U.S. electricity grid. The specific carbon intensity was -0.29 to -0.71 kg CO2e/kWh, compared to 0.45 kg CO2e/kWh for the average U.S. electricity mix. Biochar production from pistachio waste as a potential means for carbon sequestration was a significant driver for the LCA. The highly stable biochar permanently sequesters a considerable fraction of biochar carbon in the ground, more than enough to offset the life cycle emissions, and can be a complementary climate change mitigation strategy.

bio-char↗

A review of trends and drivers of greenhouse gas emissions by sector from 1990 to 2018

Global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can be traced to five economic sectors: energy, industry, buildings, transport and AFOLU (agriculture, forestry and other land uses). In this topical review, we synthesize the literature to explain recent trends in global and regional emissions in each of these sectors. To contextualize our review, we present estimates of GHG emissions trends by sector from 1990 to 2018, describing the major sources of emissions growth, stability and decline across ten global regions. Overall, the literature and data emphasize that progress towards reducing GHG emissions has been limited. The prominent global pattern is a continuation of underlying drivers with few signs of emerging limits to demand, nor of a deep shift towards the delivery of low and zero carbon services across sectors. We observe a moderate decarbonization of energy systems in Europe and North America, driven by fuel switching and the increasing penetration of renewables. By contrast, in rapidly industrializing regions, fossil-based energy systems have continuously expanded, only very recently slowing down in their growth. Strong demand for materials, floor area, energy services and travel have driven emissions growth in the industry, buildings and transport sectors, particularly in Eastern Asia, Southern Asia and South-East Asia. An expansion of agriculture into carbon-dense tropical forest areas has driven recent increases in AFOLU emissions in Latin America, South-East Asia and Africa. Identifying, understanding, and tackling the most persistent and climate-damaging trends across sectors is a fundamental concern for research and policy as humanity treads deeper into the Anthropocene.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Economy-wide evaluation of CO 2 and air quality impacts of electrification in the United States

Adopting electric end-use technologies instead of fossil-fueled alternatives, known as electrification, is an important economy-wide decarbonization strategy that also reduces criteria pollutant emissions and improves air quality. In this study, we evaluate CO 2 and air quality co-benefits of electrification scenarios by linking a detailed energy systems model and a full-form photochemical air quality model in the United States. We find that electrification can substantially lower CO 2 and improve air quality and that decarbonization policy can amplify these trends, which yield immediate and localized benefits. In particular, transport electrification can improve ozone and fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ), though the magnitude of changes varies regionally. However, growing activity from non-energy-related PM 2.5 sources—such as fugitive dust and agricultural emissions—can offset electrification benefits, suggesting that additional measures beyond CO 2 policy and electrification are needed to meet air quality goals. We illustrate how commonly used marginal emissions approaches systematically underestimate reductions from electrification.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Renewable Energy and Efficiency Technologies in Scenarios of U.S. Decarbonization in Two Types of Models: Comparison of GCAM Modeling and Sector-Specific Modeling

Energy system projections from quantitative models inform actions ranging from short-term and local decisions, such as those about technology and infrastructure deployment, and global and long-term negotiations and targets. Computational limits require model designers to balance coverage and resolution (i.e., breadth versus depth). Some models, such as the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), represent all energy sources and uses with less resolution than models that focus on a single sector's energy use. GCAM balances global supply and demand of all energy carriers projecting prices using internal calculations for energy sources and costs of greenhouse gas mitigation while capturing interlinkages between the energy system, water, agriculture and land use, the economy, and the climate. This globally comprehensive model was used to frame the Long-Term Strategy of the United States: Pathways to Net-Zero Greenhouse Gas Emissions by 2050, which the White House released in 2021 and has been used to inform national and global economy-wide climate change mitigation discussions and strategy development for decades. Unlike GCAM, sectoral models focus on a portion of the energy sector and with greater detail and resolution. The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electricity-sector model, for example, projects electricity system capacity expansion and operation with high-fidelity representation of emerging technologies for deep decarbonization, such as variable renewable energy and energy storage, and integration of these technologies into the electric grid. The Transportation Energy and Mobility Pathway Options (TEMPO) transportation-sector model enables analysis of household choices, with a focus on adoption, charging, and use of electric vehicles. The Scout buildings-sector model supports detailed consideration of the policies and markets that can accelerate the adoption of electrification and energy conservation measures in buildings. Such sector-specific models are instrumental in informing technology research, sectoral planning strategies, and sector-specific aspects of greenhouse gas mitigation strategies in the United States. The integrated multisector and sector-specific modeling approaches represented by GCAM and these sectoral models are complementary. The integrated multisector approach calculates energy pricing and resource allocation within the model, which is important for consistency when future conditions substantially diverge from current conditions in transformative scenarios. The sector-specific approach facilitates representation of granular details across spatial, temporal, technological, and market dimensions that enable exploration of particular interactions and trade-offs. This report presents the results of recent work to explore the differences and trade-offs between these approaches by comparing GCAM with the sector-specific ReEDS, TEMPO, and Scout models. The report compares both model structures and results, and it addresses their potential relevance and applications.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

SAF Grand Challenge: October 2021 – September 2024 Progress Report Fact Sheet

An interagency team led by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT), and other federal agencies including the U.S. Department of Defense, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, and Commercial Aviation Alternative Fuels Initiative have made important progress on accelerating acceptance and growth of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) as a primary strategy in aviation decarbonization. The progress made by these federal agencies supports the interagency SAF Grand Challenge, including new funding opportunities and initiatives aligned with the SAF Grand Challenge Roadmap; providing expertise and technical assistance to industry; increasing interagency collaboration; and providing data, modeling, and analysis to decision makers.

Sustainable Aviation Fuel Aviation SAF↗

2020 JISEA Annual Report

The Joint Institute for Strategic Energy Analysis (JISEA) provides leading-edge, objective, high-impact research and analysis to guide transformative global energy investment and policy decisions. JISEA research and analysis provided decision-making support to industry, the financial sector, and government with a focus on the following strategic areas: energy systems transformation, circular economy for materials and global supply chains, clean energy for industry and agriculture. The 2020 JISEA Annual Report highlights technical reports, journal articles, and other publications produced by JISEA in 2019, along with key milestones, events, and other highlights.

analysis↗

Dynamic land use implications of rapidly expanding and evolving wind power deployment

Abstract The expansion of wind power poses distinct and varied geographic challenges to a sustainable energy transition. However, current knowledge of its land use impacts and synergies is limited by reliance on static characterizations that overlook the role of turbine technology and plant design in mediating interactions with the environment. Here, we investigate how wind technology development and innovation have shaped landscape interactions with social and ecological systems within the United States and contribute to evolving land area requirements. This work assesses trends in key land use facets of wind power using a holistic set of metrics to establish an evidence base that researchers, technology designers, land use managers, and policymakers can use in envisioning how future wind-intensive energy systems may be jointly optimized for clean energy, social, and environmental objectives. Since 2000, we find dynamic land occupancy patterns and regional trends that are driven by advancing technology and geographic factors. Though most historical U.S. wind deployment has been confined to the temperate grassland biome in the nation’s interior, regional expansion has implicated diverse land use and cover types. A large percentage of the typical wind plant footprint (∼96% to > 99%) is not directly impacted by permanent physical infrastructure, allowing for multiple uses in the spaces between turbines. Surprisingly, turbines are commonly close to built structures. Moreover, rangeland and cropland have supported 93.4% of deployment, highlighting potential synergies with agricultural lands. Despite broadly decreasing capacity densities, offsetting technology improvements have stabilized power densities. Land use intensity, defined as the ratio of direct land usage to lifetime power generation of wind facilities, has also trended downwards. Although continued deployment on disturbed lands, and in close proximity to existing wind facilities and other infrastructure, could minimize the extent of impacts, ambitious decarbonization trajectories may predispose particular biomes to cumulative effects and risks from regional wind power saturation. Increased land-use and sustainability feedback in technology and plant design will be critical to sustainable management of wind power.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Fleet-Level Energy and Emissions Analysis of the US Off-Road Sector with VISION: Off-Road

In the United States (US), the off-road sector (i.e., agriculture, construction, etc.) contributes to approximately 10% of the country’s transportation greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, similar to the aviation sector. The off-road sector is extremely diverse; as the EPA MOVES model classifies it into 11 sub-sectors, which include 85 different types of equipment. These equipment types have horsepower ranging from 1 to greater than 3000 and have very different utilization, which makes decarbonization a complex endeavor. To address this, Argonne’s on-road vehicle fleet model, VISION, has been expanded to the off-road sector. The GHG emission factors for several energy carriers (biofuels, electricity, and hydrogen) have been incorporated from Argonne’s GREET model for a sector-wide well-to-wheel (WTW) GHG emissions analysis of the present and future fleet. Several technology adoption and energy decarbonization scenarios were modeled to better understand the appropriate actions required to drive towards net-zero emissions of the off-road sector. Results show that WTW decarbonization up to 67% can be achieved from 2023 to 2050 in a business-as-usual scenario. But with aggressive sales increases of electric and hydrogen powertrains, WTW decarbonization up to 77% can be achieved, which can further increase to 85% if electricity production is aggressively decarbonized by 2035.

lifecycle↗

Solar Thermochemical Ammonia Production (STAP) (Final Report)

Ammonia (NH 3 ) is an energy-dense chemical and a vital component of fertilizer. In addition, it is a carbon-neutral liquid fuel and a potential candidate for thermochemical energy storage for high-temperature concentrating solar power (CSP). Currently, NH 3 synthesis occurs via the Haber-Bosch process, which requires high pressures (15-25 MPa) and medium to high temperatures (400-500 °C). N 2 and H 2 are essential feedstocks for this NH 3 production process. H 2 is generally derived from methane via steam reforming; N 2 is sourced from air, after oxygen removal via combustion of hydrocarbons. Both processes consume hydrocarbons, resulting in the release of CO 2 . In addition, hydrocarbon fuels are burned to produce the heat and mechanical energy required to perform the NH 3 reaction, further increasing CO 2 emissions. Overall, the production of ammonia via the Haber-Bosch (H-B) process is responsible for up to 1.4% of the world’s carbon emissions. The development of a renewable pathway to NH 3 synthesis, which utilizes concentrated solar irradiation as a process heat instead of fossil fuels and operates under low or ambient pressure, will result in a decrease (or elimination) of greenhouse gas emissions as well as avoid the cost, complexity, and safety issues inherent in high-pressure processes. Most current efforts to “green” ammonia production involve either electrolysis or simply replacing the energy source for H-B with renewable electricity, but otherwise leaving the process intact. The effort proposed here would create a new paradigm for the synthesis of NH 3 utilizing solar-thermal heat, water, and air as feedstocks, providing a truly green method of production. The overall objective of the STAP (Solar Thermal Ammonia Production) project was to develop a solar thermochemical looping technology to produce and store nitrogen (N 2 ) from air for the subsequent production of ammonia (NH 3 ) via an advanced two-stage process. The goal is a cost-effective and energy efficient technology for the renewable N 2 production and synthesis of NH 3 from H 2 (produced from H 2 O) and air using solar-thermal energy from concentrating sunlight, under pressures an order of magnitude lower than H-B NH 3 production. Our process involves two looping cycles, which do not require catalysts and can be recycled. Over the course of the STAP project, we (1) developed and deeply characterized oxide materials for N 2 separation; (2) developed a method for the synthesis of metal nitrides, producing a series of quaternary compounds that have been heretofore unreported; (3) modeled, designed, and fabricated bench-scale tube and on-sun reactors for the N 2 production step and demonstrated the ability to separate N 2 over multiple cycles in the tube reactor; (4) designed and fabricated a bench-scale Ammonia Synthesis Reactor (ASR) and demonstrated the proof of concept of NH 3 synthesis via a novel looping process using metal nitrides over multiple cycles; and (5) completed a systems- and technoeconomic analysis showing the feasibility of ammonia production on a larger scale via the STAP process. The development of renewable, low-cost NH 3 will be of great interest to the chemicals industry, particularly agricultural sectors. The CSP industry should be both an important customer and potential end-user of this technology, as it affords the capability of synthesizing a promising thermochemical storage material on-site. Since the NH 3 synthesis step also requires H 2 , there will exist a symbiotic relationship between this technology and solar-thermochemical water-splitting applications. Green ammonia synthesis will result in the decarbonization of a hydrocarbon-intensive industry, helping to meet the Administration goal of industrial decarbonization by 2050. The resulting decrease in CO 2 and related pollutants will improve health and well-being of society, particularly for those living in the vicinity of commercial production plants.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Valorization of lignin from aqueous-based lignocellulosic biorefineries

An additional 100 million tons/year of lignin coproduct will result when lignocellulosic biomass is processed in biorefineries to fiber, sugars, biofuels, and bioproducts. This will double the amount of lignin already generated from pulping and paper production. Unlike pulping that results in lignosulphonate (88% of total) or Kraft lignin (9%), aqueous-based biorefining leaves behind non-sulfonated lignin and aromatic molecules. Furthermore, this new type of lignin provides opportunities for large volume agricultural uses such as controlled-release carriers and soil amendments as well as feedstocks for new chemistries that lead to molecular building blocks for the chemical industry and to precursors for sustainable aviation biofuels.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Technology Strategy Assessment: Findings from Storage Innovations 2030 Bidirectional Hydrogen Storage

Hydrogen is the most common element in the universe, comprising nearly 75% of all normal matter, and it has been used by scientists for centuries, but it was not fully recognized as an element until 1766, when it was isolated by Henry Cavendish. Early work focused on the generation of hydrogen through the oxidation of metals in water, which released hydrogen gas. Hydrogen’s lighter-than-air and flammable properties were immediately used in engines, zeppelins, and as feedstock for a wide variety of chemical reactions. Several approaches were developed for the production of hydrogen with the most common being associated with the production and conversion of hydrocarbon-based fuels. Coal gasification, steam methane reforming, and other reformation processes provide the majority of current hydrogen production due to the relatively low cost of hydrogen produced through these processes. More than 95% of hydrogen production is used for industrial processes rather than energy storage. To facilitate affordable decarbonization of these industrial processes and to advance the use of hydrogen as a fuel in transportation, DOE launched the Hydrogen Shot as part of the Energy Earthshots Initiative. The goal of the Hydrogen Shot is to reduce the cost of clean hydrogen by 80% to $1/kg of clean hydrogen production within one decade (known as the “1 1 1” goal). This is distinct from the Long-Duration Storage Shot, which is the primary focus of this report; however, it is intrinsically linked to bidirectional hydrogen storage. Several important chemical synthesis processes are dependent upon hydrogen, and the production and use of hydrogen is generally driven by its connection to one of these markets. For example, ammonia is one of the most highly produced chemicals in the world and it depends chiefly on hydrogen. Ammonia is primarily used for agricultural fertilizer and is considered to be largely responsible for a doubling of agricultural production per unit of land over the last century. Another one of hydrogen’s primary uses is as a catalyst in petroleum refining during the desulfurization process. Beyond chemical production, hydrogen is used as a reductant in the production of steel and has been demonstrated as a substitute for metallurgical coal in the production of raw iron. It is even used in the hydrogenation reaction for food products to create more shelf-stable semi-solid fats. However, while hydrogen is produced on the order of 100 million metric tons/year globally to feed these industries, more than 95% of hydrogen is produced from hydrocarbons that emit CO2 during the process. Conversely, electrolysis is a process by which electricity is used to separate hydrogen and oxygen in water molecules, usually across a membrane. Hydrogen production via electrolysis lowers the carbon intensity of produced hydrogen when coupled with low-carbon electricity. Currently, global electrolysis capacity is on the order of 1 GW, which equates to about 500 metric tons/day of hydrogen production. To support large-scale industrial decarbonization, capacity will likely need to increase by two to three orders of magnitude. Electrolysis technology is broadly separated into groups that are defined by the electrolyte used, with further subdivision based on the operating characteristics. The majority of commercial electrolyzer systems are based around three main technology groups: liquid alkaline, proton exchange membrane, and solid oxide. Liquid Alkaline (LA) electrolysis is the oldest, most mature, least expensive, and most common commercial technology, with 400 plants in operation by 1902. Its hydrogen output is low relative to the size of the system due to a low current density. LA electrolysis utilizes a liquid potassium hydroxide solution as the electrolyte. Proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolysis (also known as polymer electrolyte membrane electrolysis), described in 1960, relies on an acid-impregnated polymer membrane as the electrolyte and typically offers three to six times higher hydrogen production per unit cell area than LA electrolysis. Solid oxide electrolysis, or high-temperature electrolysis, utilizes a ceramic cell as the electrolyte and operates on steam rather than liquid water, enabling electrical efficiencies of more than 90%, which is up from 60% with PEM. Two pre-commercial electrolyzer technologies to note are alkaline exchange membrane (AEM) and proton-conducting solid oxide electrolysis cell (SOEC). AEM potentially has the advantages of both LA and PEM technologies in that it is able to use low-cost materials like LA but with the ability to operate at higher output pressures with a smaller footprint like PEM. Proton-conducting SOEC is similar to commercial SOEC, which uses an oxide-conducting ceramic; however, it uses a proton-conducting ceramic that has the potential to operate at lower temperatures and has lower capital costs. Each of these technologies is experiencing a rapid improvement in performance and a reduction in installed cost, and each appears to be well suited to specific applications. Besides differences in the type of electrolyzer used, the main difference in the architecture of bidirectional hydrogen systems is how the hydrogen is stored. Currently, the most cost-effective way to store large amounts of hydrogen gas is underground, such as in large salt caverns that have been hollowed out. These salt caverns are geographically concentrated in small portions of the United States and are not generally near large metropolitan areas; however, other subsurface architectures are being investigated to expand this reach. A more widely deployable option is aboveground pressurized tanks. These systems are about 10 times as expensive because of the materials and safety margins required to hold hydrogen at high pressures. A third option is using materials-based storage, such as liquid organic hydrogen carriers. By reversibly attaching the produced hydrogen to other molecules, it can be stored at near atmospheric pressure and room temperature. This has the potential to reduce the material cost of storage but may result in a reduction in the efficiency of the process because there are both hydrogen uptake and release processes. While materials-based storage has not been used extensively for large-scale hydrogen storage in the past, there is currently significant activity regarding developing materials and processes for use in large-scale hydrogen storage applications. Electrolysis-produced hydrogen offers an unusual opportunity for energy storage applications. Unlike more conventional energy storage approaches, such as batteries, which operate entirely within electrical markets, hydrogen is a valuable product beyond the electric market and can be directed to the most lucrative use. Hydrogen also can be directly converted back to electricity using either a fuel cell or turbine, or it can be sold to other markets, such as chemical synthesis, steel production, or even export. In this way, excess electricity can be upgraded to the most valuable product. Finally, its use can be actively managed between multiple off-takers; for example, local hydrogen storage can provide a specific amount of stored electricity and any excess can be exported to ammonia production. This flexibility is amplified by the fact that hydrogen storage has fully decoupled power and energy components, which allows for affordable scaling options. Together, this allows a substantial amount of creativity to enable the economic utilization of variable power resources while supporting decarbonization of the industry.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Data-Driven Buy Clean: Decarbonization and Beyond

This report was compiled to provide recommendations on the availability of public background data from the U.S. Federal life cycle assessment (LCA) Data Commons to be conformant with the Association for Life Cycle Assessment (ACLCA) 2022 Product Category Rule (PCR) Open Standard to build technical tools that can assist industry in creating more comparable Type II Environmental Product Declarations (EPDs) for Federal Buy Clean and sustainability initiatives. The Federal LCA Commons is not only a public data source but also a consistently structured, self-referencing mega-repository for data developed by federal agency experts (in agency repositories) and by academia, nonprofit organizations, and industry (via the US Life Cycle Inventory Database). The Federal LCA Commons Technical Working Group is continuously improving the standardization of data documentation, formatting, and nomenclature to ensure lossless data loading and accurate data representation. This report and appendixes include the following: 1) An introduction to data-driven Buy Clean and decarbonization initiatives at the federal level; 2) The current status and associated challenges with LCA data and EPD standards and comparability; 3) Opportunities for the Federal LCA Commons to support conformance with the ACLCA 2022 PCR Open Standard and provide resources to implement the Federal Sustainability Plan, Buy Clean Program, and Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) sustainability goals and objectives. To date, the Federal LCA Commons is the result of coordinated work by National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), the Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), the U.S. Forest Service (USFS), the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), the Department of Defense (DoD) and the National Institute of Standards and Technologies (NIST). The Federal LCA Commons will continue to combine databases from the collaborating agencies while remaining a public resource. There are several initiatives among the collaborating agencies to expand the Federal LCA Commons and dedicated federal funding and resources could accelerate and strengthen these initiatives.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Modeling the Water Systems of the Western US to Support Climate‐Resilient Electricity System Planning

Abstract Electricity and water systems in the Western US (WUS) are closely connected, with hydropower comprising 20% of total annual WUS generation, and electricity related to water comprising about 7% of total WUS electricity use. Because of these interdependencies, the threat of climate change to WUS resources will likely have compounding electricity impacts on the Western Interconnect grid. This study describes a WUS‐wide water system model with a particular emphasis on estimating climate impacts on hydropower generation and water‐related electricity use, which can be linked with a grid expansion model to support climate‐resilient electricity planning. The water system model combines climatically‐driven physical hydrology and management of both water supply and demand allocation, and is applied to an ensemble of 15 climate scenarios out to 2050. Model results show decreasing streamflow in key basins of the WUS under most scenarios. Annual water‐related electricity use increases up to 4%, and by up to 6% during the summer months, driven by growing agricultural demands met increasingly through a shift toward energy‐intensive groundwater to replace declining surface water. Total annual hydropower generation changes by +5% to −20% by mid‐century but declines in most scenarios, with decreases in summer generation by up to nearly −30%. Water‐related electricity use increases tend to coincide with hydropower generation declines, annually and seasonally, demonstrating the importance of concurrently evaluating the climate signal on both water‐for‐energy and energy‐for‐water to inform planning for grid reliability and decarbonization goals.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Balancing renewable energy and river resources by moving from individual assessments of hydropower projects to energy system planning

As governments and non-state actors strive to minimize global warming, a primary strategy is the decarbonization of power systems which will require a massive increase in renewable electricity generation. Leading energy agencies forecast a doubling of global hydropower capacity as part of that necessary expansion of renewables. While hydropower provides generally low-carbon generation and can integrate variable renewables, such as wind and solar, into electrical grids, hydropower dams are one of the primary reasons that only one-third of the world’s major rivers remain free-flowing. This loss of free-flowing rivers has contributed to dramatic declines of migratory fish and sediment delivery to agriculturally productive deltas. Further, the reservoirs behind dams have displaced tens of millions of people. Thus, hydropower challenges the world’s efforts to meet climate targets while simultaneously achieving other Sustainable Development Goals. In this paper, we explore strategies to achieve the needed renewable energy expansion while sustaining the diverse social and environmental benefits of rivers. These strategies can be implemented at scales ranging from the individual project (environmental flows, fish passage and other site-level mitigation) to hydropower cascades to river basins and regional electrical power systems. While we review evidence that project-level management and mitigation can reduce environmental and social costs, we posit that the most effective scale for finding balanced solutions occurs at the scale of power systems. We further hypothesize that the pursuit of solutions at the system scale can also provide benefits for investors, developers and governments; evidence of benefits to these actors will be necessary for achieving broad uptake of the approaches described in this paper. We test this hypothesis through cases from Chile and Uganda that demonstrate the potential for system-scale power planning to allow countries to meet low-carbon energy targets with power systems that avoid damming high priority rivers (e.g., those that would cause conflicts with other social and environmental benefits) for a similar system cost as status quo approaches. We also show that, through reduction of risk and potential conflict, strategic planning of hydropower site selection can improve financial performance for investors and developers, with a case study from Colombia.

Opperman, Jeffrey J.↗

A novel approach for large-scale wind energy potential assessment

Increasing wind energy generation is central to grid decarbonization, yet methods to estimate wind energy potential are not standardized, leading to inconsistencies and even skewed results. This study aims to improve the fidelity of wind energy potential estimates through an approach that integrates geospatial analysis and machine learning (i.e., Gaussian process regression). We demonstrate this approach to assess the spatial distribution of wind energy capacity potential in the Contiguous United States (CONUS). We find that the capacity-based power density ranges from 1.70 MW/km2 (25th percentile) to 3.88 MW/km2 (75th percentile) for existing wind farms in the CONUS. The value is lower in agricultural areas (2.73 ± 0.02 MW/km2, mean ± 95 % confidence interval) and higher in other land cover types (3.30 ± 0.03 MW/km2). Notably, advancements in turbine manufacturing could reduce power density in areas with lower wind speeds by adopting low specific-power turbines, but improve power density in areas with higher wind speeds (>8.35 m/s at 120m above the ground), highlighting opportunities for repowering existing wind farms. Wind energy potential is shaped by wind resource quality and is regionally characterized by land cover and physical conditions, revealing significant capacity potential in the Great Plains and Upper Texas. The results indicate that areas previously identified as hot spots using existing approaches (e.g., the west of the Rocky Mountains) may have a limited capacity potential due to low wind resource quality. Improvements in methodology and capacity potential estimates in this study could serve as a new basis for future energy systems analysis and planning.

Dai, Tao↗

Biological Carbon Sequestration for Climate and Soil Health

The United States recently launched the Net Zero World Initiative on decarbonization. As temperatures and sea levels rise, strong action is needed to mitigate high atmospheric CO 2 levels. In response to this need, a joint workshop between the US Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) was convened to assess the challenges and opportunities within biological carbon (C) capture. The virtual workshop on Biological Carbon Sequestration for Climate and Soil Health focused on three aspects of biological C capture research: natural systems, engineered systems, and modeling. For this workshop, the scope of natural systems included unmanaged (e.g., grasslands, wetlands, natural forests) and managed (e.g., agricultural lands, commercial forests, forest biofuels) ecosystems. The engineered systems group covered topics in genetically modified plants and microbes, synthetic microbiomes, and altered plant–microbe interactions for enhancing C capture, storage, and utilization. The modeling group focused on computational tools and data collection to predict and assess the effectiveness of new biocarbon sequestration advances. Participant expertise included plant and microbial systems biology, synthetic biology, soil biogeochemistry, and techno-economic analysis. Together, participants outlined key scientific advances in support of biological C capture and storage. Among the major findings of the meeting were the need to better measure C flux within natural, agricultural, and fabricated ecosystems for experimentation; better understand the role of soil composition, plant roots, and the rhizosphere (i.e., the soil surrounding the plant root) in the underground storage of organic C; and design plant–microbe systems for maximal C storage.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Global biomass supply modeling for long-run management of the climate system

Bioenergy is projected to have a prominent, valuable, and maybe essential, role in climate management. However, there is significant variation in projected bioenergy deployment results, as well as concerns about the potential environmental and social implications of supplying biomass. Bioenergy deployment projections are market equilibrium solutions from integrated modeling, yet little is known about the underlying modeling of the supply of biomass as a feedstock for energy use in these modeling frameworks. We undertake a novel diagnostic analysis with ten global models to elucidate, compare, and assess how biomass is supplied within the models used to inform long-run climate management. With experiments that isolate and reveal biomass supply modeling behavior and characteristics (costs, emissions, land use, market effects), we learn about biomass supply tendencies and differences. The insights provide a new level of modeling transparency and understanding of estimated global biomass supplies that informs evaluation of the potential for bioenergy in managing the climate and interpretation of integrated modeling. For each model, we characterize the potential distributions of global biomass supply across regions and feedstock types for increasing levels of quantity supplied, as well as some of the potential societal externalities of supplying biomass. We also evaluate the biomass supply implications of managing these externalities. Finally, we interpret biomass market results from integrated modeling in terms of our new understanding of biomass supply. Overall, we find little consensus between models on where biomass could be cost-effectively produced and the implications. We also reveal model specific biomass supply narratives, with results providing new insights into integrated modeling bioenergy outcomes and differences. The analysis finds that many integrated models are considering and managing emissions and land use externalities of supplying biomass and estimating that environmental and societal trade-offs in the form of land emissions, land conversion, and higher agricultural prices are cost-effective, and to some degree a reality of using biomass, to address climate change.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗