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Validating Connected, Automated, and Electric Vehicle Models and Simulation - Research Performance Progress Report

The objective of this project is to test connected and automated vehicles with both electrified and internal combustion engine powertrains to support updates and validation of modeling and simulation tools. This includes the development of the components and network architecture to execute and collect empirical data for multiple scenarios and traffic interactions. Specific program objectives include: • Translate Lab algorithms into vehicle and infrastructure controls • Conduct physical testing at realistic scale • Evaluate system performance • Improve models using empirical data • Improve control algorithms from lessons learned • Identify system and algorithm assumptions which need refinement It is important to note that the objective of this project was not to demonstrate the efficacy of the selected algorithms to improve energy efficiency but rather to validate and improve modeling and simulation tools using empirical data. While it is a desirable outcome to concurrently demonstrate improved energy efficiency through use of these algorithms, and in most cases that was the outcome, the success of this project was not predicated on the performance of the algorithm towards improving energy efficiency across all scenarios and test matrices.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

The effect of dust bias on the census of neutral gas and metals in the high-redshift Universe due to SDSS-II quasar colour selection

ABSTRACT We present a systematic study of the impact of a dust bias on samples of damped Ly α absorbers (DLAs). This bias arises as an effect of the magnitude and colour criteria utilized in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) quasar target selection up until data release 7 (DR7). The bias has previously been quantified assuming only a contribution from the dust obscuration. In this work, we apply the full set of magnitude and colour criteria used up until SDSS-DR7 in order to quantify the full impact of dust biasing against dusty and metal-rich DLAs. We apply the quasar target selection algorithm on a modelled population of intrinsic colours, and by exploring the parameter space consisting of redshift, ($z_{\rm{\small QSO}}$and zabs), optical extinction, and H i column density, we demonstrate how the selection probability depends on these variables. We quantify the dust bias on the following properties derived for DLAs at z ≈ 3: the incidence rate, the mass density of neutral hydrogen and metals, and the average metallicity. We find that all quantities are significantly affected. When considering all uncertainties, the mass density of neutral hydrogen is underestimated by 10–50 per cent, and the mass density in metals is underestimated by 30–200 per cent. Lastly, we find that the bias depends on redshift. At redshift z = 2.2, the mass density of neutral hydrogen and metals might be underestimated by up to a factor of 2 and 5, respectively. Characterizing such a bias is crucial in order to accurately interpret and model the properties and metallicity evolution of absorption-selected galaxies.

Krogager, Jens-Kristian↗

Identifying Missing Quasars from the DESI Bright Galaxy Survey

The Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) cosmology survey includes a Bright Galaxy Survey (BGS), which will yield spectra for over 10 million bright galaxies (r < 20.2 AB mag). The resulting sample will be valuable for both cosmological and astrophysical studies. However, the star/galaxy separation criterion implemented in the nominal BGS target selection algorithm excludes quasar host galaxies in addition to bona fide stars. While this excluded population is comparatively rare (∼3–4 per square degrees), it may hold interesting clues regarding galaxy and quasar physics. Therefore, we present a target selection strategy that was implemented to recover these missing active galactic nuclei (AGN) from the BGS sample. The design of the selection criteria was both motivated and confirmed using spectroscopy. The resulting BGS-AGN sample is uniformly distributed over the entire DESI footprint. According to DESI survey validation data, the sample comprises 93% quasi-stellar objects (QSOs), 3% narrow-line AGN or blazars with a galaxy contamination rate of 2%, and a stellar contamination rate of 2%. Peaking around redshift z = 0.5, the BGS-AGN sample is intermediary between quasars from the rest of the BGS and those from the DESI QSO sample in terms of redshifts and AGN luminosities. The stacked spectrum is nearly identical to that of the DESI QSO targets, confirming that the sample is dominated by quasars. We highlight interesting small populations reaching z > 2, which are either faint quasars with nearby projected companions or very bright quasars with strong absorption features including the Lyα forest, metal absorbers, and/or broad absorption lines.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Reduced Switching Frequency Finite Control Set Model Predictive Control (FCS-MPC) for DFIG

An enhanced Finite Control Set Model Predictive Control (FCS-MPC) strategy with a two-step prediction horizon for a Doubly-Fed Induction Generator (DFIG) is the focus of this paper. The DFIG and RL filter's discrete-time model is used in the proposed control scheme for a two-step prediction horizon of rotor and filter currents for the converter's eight possible switching states. Afterward, the control algorithm selects the ideal switching state, which minimizes currents' objective function. The proposed control scheme does not require a modulation stage for internal controllers. We use Lagrange extrapolations to predict the dynamic changes in currents. The switching frequency reduction is achieved by integrating an optimization constraint in the algorithm's cost function. Furthermore, the Total Harmonic Distortion level of currents is kept below 5%, according to IEEE Std 519-14. Obtained results reveal that the switching frequency of the DFIG converters is considerably reduced without losing control; it is reduced by 13.89KHz for the Grid Side Converter (GSC) and by 1.78KHz for the Rotor Side Converter (RSC).

doubly-fed induction generator↗

Sequential Decision Making (SDM) for Mesh Refinement and Model Selection in Multiscale, Multi-Physics Applications

Intelligent automation and decision support are needed to enhance computational efficiency and robustness in multiscale and multi-physics problems, including materials science, manufacturing, and climate and weather modeling. Current scientific computing approaches for enabling decisions by scientists fail to explore the role of learning, reasoning, and probabilistic planning. Often these decisions are not performed in real-time during the computation but are made prior to the start of the computation, which must be interrupted in order to make changes to the prior choices. Such interruptions at different stages of the computation increase the total computing time and the need for a human expert to frequently monitor the results. State of art scientific computing methods consist of rule-based algorithms that cannot automatically adapt to a dynamically changing computing environment. The development of a Sequential Decision Making (SDM) framework will automate scientific computing by optimizing the policies for mesh refinement, time-stepping, model and algorithm selection, resource allocation, and pre and post-processing. Our agent SDM framework for scientific computing will consist of data-driven learning (Classifier), automated reasoning (contextual knowledge), and probabilistic planning (Reinforcement Learning). In this project, we focused on three problems to demonstrate our SDM framework on a set of ordinary and partial differential equations. Classification of Lorenz system regions using Feed-Forward Neural Networks examined learning in the SDM framework. On the other hand, reasoning and planning in the SDM framework were used in two problems: adaptive time-stepping for nonlinear ODEs using on-policy RL algorithms, and adaptive mesh refinement for 2-D PDEs using off-policy RL algorithms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Dakota A Multilevel Parallel Object-Oriented Framework for Design Optimization Parameter Estimation Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis: Version 6.12 Theory Manual

The Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. Dakota contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quantification with sampling, reliability, and stochastic expansion methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a theoretical manual for selected algorithms implemented within the Dakota software. It is not intended as a comprehensive theoretical treatment, since a number of existing texts cover general optimization theory, statistical analysis, and other introductory topics. Rather, this manual is intended to summarize a set of Dakota-related research publications in the areas of surrogate-based optimization, uncertainty quantification, and optimization under uncertainty that provide the foundation for many of Dakota's iterative analysis capabilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Dakota A Multilevel Parallel Object-Oriented Framework for Design Optimization Parameter Estimation Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis (V.6.14) (Theory Manual)

The Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. Dakota contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quantification with sampling, reliability, and stochastic expansion methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a theoretical manual for selected algorithms implemented within the Dakota software. It is not intended as a comprehensive theoretical treatment, since a number of existing texts cover general optimization theory, statistical analysis, and other introductory topics. Rather, this manual is intended to summarize a set of Dakota-related research publications in the areas of surrogate-based optimization, uncertainty quantification, and optimization under uncertainty that provide the foundation for many of Dakota's iterative analysis capabilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Dakota, A Multilevel Parallel Object-Oriented Framework for Design Optimization, Parameter Estimation, Uncertainty Quantification, and Sensitivity Analysis: Version 6.13 Theory Manual

The Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. Dakota contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quantification with sampling, reliability, and stochastic expansion methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a theoretical manual for selected algorithms implemented within the Dakota software. It is not intended as a comprehensive theoretical treatment, since a number of existing texts cover general optimization theory, statistical analysis, and other introductory topics. Rather, this manual is intended to summarize a set of Dakota-related research publications in the areas of surrogate-based optimization, uncertainty quantification, and optimization under uncertainty that provide the foundation for many of Dakota's iterative analysis capabilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Dakota, A Multilevel Parallel Object-Oriented Framework for Design Optimization, Parameter Estimation, Uncertainty Quantification, and Sensitivity Analysis: Theory Manual (V.6.15)

The Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. Dakota contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quantification with sampling, reliability, and stochastic expansion methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a theoretical manual for selected algorithms implemented within the Dakota software. It is not intended as a comprehensive theoretical treatment, since a number of existing texts cover general optimization theory, statistical analysis, and other introductory topics. Rather, this manual is intended to summarize a set of Dakota-related research publications in the areas of surrogate-based optimization, uncertainty quantification, and optimization under uncertainty that provide the foundation for many of Dakota's iterative analysis capabilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Dakota, A Multilevel Parallel Object-Oriented Framework for Design Optimization, Parameter Estimation, Uncertainty Quantification, and Sensitivity Analysis: Version 6.16 Theory Manual

The Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. Dakota contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quantification with sampling, reliability, and stochastic expansion methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a theoretical manual for selected algorithms implemented within the Dakota software. It is not intended as a comprehensive theoretical treatment, since a number of existing texts cover general optimization theory, statistical analysis, and other introductory topics. Rather, this manual is intended to summarize a set of Dakota-related research publications in the areas of surrogate-based optimization, uncertainty quantification, and optimization under uncertainty that provide the foundation for many of Dakota’s iterative analysis capabilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Autonomous System Subversion Tactics: Prototypes and Recommended Countermeasures

One of the fielding requirements for Advanced and Small Modular Reactors (AR/SMR) is the ability to support remote and autonomous operations. Autonomous Control Systems (ACS) are found on platforms such as Autonomous Space Vehicles, Cruise Missiles, and advanced driver-assistance systems. Each of these ACS implementations depends upon a set of decision support subsystems responsible for supporting Autonomous Mission Managers (names vary based upon field and author preferences). These Autonomous Mission Managers receive inputs from system sensors (e.g., LIDAR collection from an automobile travelling down a street; transients from a nuclear reactor), and perform a set of classifications (e.g., Red Traffic Light; Small Pedestrian at 10m; Load Rejection; Single Coolant Pump Trip), and then use these classifications in combination with recommendation algorithms to achieve platform goals (e.g., Stop the Vehicle at the Traffic Light, Avoid the Small Pedestrian; Trip the Reactor to prevent a Safety Event). The design, implementation, and fielding of an ACS capability will alter the cyber-attack surface such that existing risk management plans will need to be updated to include how to protect and defend against data-science and decision-support-system attack classes. These attack classes would include protection of the design and training environments where algorithm selection and testing and training data would be obvious attack vectors. These attack classes would also require an informed set of detection and response procedures to identify anomalous behaviors and document best practices for anomaly assessment and vulnerability mitigation and remediation. Last year we published a Cyber Threat Assessment Methodology for Autonomous and Remote Operations for AR/SMRs along with a companion publication on Cyber Attack and Defense Use Cases. The focus of the methodology was on describing and enumerating ACS processes, components, and functions such that security engineers could: evaluate subversion options against the target; identify threat actor attributes and capabilities derived from each subversion option; and identify security controls and response countermeasures. The Use Cases document offered detailed methodology examples including an assessment of a Military Base SMR, an Autonomous System Decision Loop, and implementation of AR/SMR Machine Learning algorithms. Our proposal at the end of last year was to focus on implementation of subversion prototypes related to the last Use Case area: AR/SMR Machine Learning (ML) Algorithms. We included six attack scenarios in our Use Cases paper: a Poisoning Attack against ML functions implemented using an FPGA; a Trojaning Attack against ML classifiers exploiting the excitability of Nuclear Engineers; a Backdooring Attack against ML Training environments to ensure persistence of an attack vector; a False Positive Evasion Attack against multi-factor Access Control Systems using clever inputs; an Inference Attack against ML models by an Insider with access to the Operational environment; and an Adversarial Reprogramming Attack against a Material Access Control Video Surveillance System. At the beginning of this year these six attack scenarios were provided to our research teams at Georgia Tech and Idaho State University and each team successfully implemented a subversion attack against a ML implementation to include transient misclassifications. While this is a notable outcome from this type of research, this paper offers the reader insight into not only how to structure and execute these types of attacks, but into the thought process behind how the researcher investigated the problem space, performed initial algorithm implementation, and the trial-and-error behind arriving at the successful subversion prototypes. We include in this paper a set of associated Scenarios on how these subversion prototypes could be implemented and an initial set of guidance for AR/SMR architects, Nuclear Regulators, and Cyber Defenders to implement awareness and defense capabilities into their current operational portfolios.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Geothermal-integrated thermally anisotropic building envelope for energy and peak-demand reduction

Buildings consume large amounts of energy for heating and cooling, while peak electricity demand places significant stress on the power grid. This paper presents a reduced-order co-simulation framework and load-oriented supervisory control strategy for a geothermal-integrated thermally anisotropic building envelope with a ground loop (TABE+GL). In TABE+GL, a hydronic loop embedded in the building envelope is directly coupled with a geothermal ground loop, allowing for bidirectional heat exchange between the envelope, the ground, and the indoor environment. A hybrid co-simulation framework was established by coupling a reduced-order resistor–capacitor (RC) thermal network model with EnergyPlus augmented with GHEDesigner modules. The RC model generated feasible heat flux options under three operating modes, and EnergyPlus predicted sensible loads, energy use, and pump energy demand. At each simulation step, a supervisory control algorithm selected the optimal loop configuration and duty factor that maximizes useful TABE geothermal utilization without exceeding the predicted sensible load, thereby avoiding overheating or cooling. Case studies were conducted for Los Angeles, California, Charleston, South Carolina, and Denver, Colorado. Results showed that the proposed framework reduced HVAC electricity consumption by 43%–67%, natural gas use for space heating by 11%–38%, and peak electricity demand by 43%–88%. These results highlight the potential of combining reduced-order envelope modeling, direct geothermal coupling, and load-oriented supervisory control to improve whole building energy performance and reduce peak demand across diverse weather conditions.

Howard, Daniel [Southern Adventist University]↗

Feature extraction for subtle anomaly detection using semi-supervised learning

The demand for automated and effective monitoring techniques has soared with the increased digitization of industrial monitoring systems. State-of-the-art machine learning methods are effectively detecting abrupt changes in system states. However, these methods lack comparable maturity in detecting subtle changes that may be signs of incipient faults. This manuscript argues that the current anomaly detection methods can be enhanced by exploring weak patterns to enable subtle variation detection. Specifically, the concept of semi-supervised learning is employed, with labels representing knowledge about some anomalous conditions of a system. The basic idea is to extract a candidate set of weak patterns discarded by state-of-the-art baselining algorithms. With few labeled anomalous data, the algorithm selects the weak patterns and allows for their possible fusion using the highest sensitivity to the labeled anomalies. Here, the method’s applicability is demonstrated using a representative pressurized water reactor (PWR) model simulated by Dymola.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Implementation of an extensible property modeling framework in ESPEI with applications to molar volume and elastic stiffness models

Property models are becoming more widely adopted by commercial Calphad databases, but they are not nearly as common in non-commercial or traditional academic Calphad databases. A primary driver is that user-friendly Calphad modeling tools that support property models are not widely available. Here we present new property modeling capabilities that have been implemented in ESPEI (the Extensible, Self-optimizing Phase Equilibrium Infrastructure). These capabilities include both generating property model parameters from data and improvements to the algorithmic selection of the most appropriate model from a series of candidates. Additionally, two illustrative examples are given that use ESPEI to fit different property models. First, we generate molar volume model parameters for Group IV, V, and VI refractory BCC alloys based on the model by Lu et al. (2005). Second, we demonstrate the extensibility of ESPEI’s property modeling capabilities by implementing a custom PyCalphad model for BCC elastic stiffness parameters to generate and compare parameters to the ones assessed by Marker et al. (2018) using the same data. Property models generated by ESPEI can be used in PyCalphad or further optimized with uncertainty quantification using ESPEI.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Bayesian operator inference for data-driven reduced-order modeling

This work proposes a Bayesian inference method for the reduced-order modeling of time-dependent systems. Informed by the structure of the governing equations, the task of learning a reduced-order model from data is posed as a Bayesian inverse problem with Gaussian prior and likelihood. The resulting posterior distribution characterizes the operators defining the reduced-order model, hence the predictions subsequently issued by the reduced-order model are endowed with uncertainty. The statistical moments of these predictions are estimated via a Monte Carlo sampling of the posterior distribution. Since the reduced models are fast to solve, this sampling is computationally efficient. Furthermore, the proposed Bayesian framework provides a statistical interpretation of the regularization term that is present in the deterministic operator inference problem, and the empirical Bayes approach of maximum marginal likelihood suggests a selection algorithm for the regularization hyperparameters. The proposed method is demonstrated on two examples: the compressible Euler equations with noise-corrupted observations, and a single-injector combustion process.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Optimal sensor placement for reconstructing wind pressure field around buildings using compressed sensing

Deciding how to optimally deploy sensors in a large, complex, and spatially extended structure is critical to ensure that the surface pressure field is accurately captured for subsequent analysis and design. In some cases, reconstruction of missing data is required in downstream tasks such as the development of digital twins. Here, this paper presents a data-driven sparse sensor selection algorithm, aiming to provide the most information contents for reconstructing aerodynamic characteristics of wind pressures over tall building structures parsimoniously. The algorithm first fits a set of basis functions to the training data, then applies a computationally efficient QR algorithm that ranks existing pressure sensors in order of importance based on the state reconstruction to this tailored basis. The findings of this study show that the proposed algorithm successfully re- constructs the aerodynamic characteristics of tall buildings from sparse measurement locations, generating stable and optimal solutions across a range of conditions. As a result, this study serves as a promising first step toward leveraging the success of data-driven and machine learning algorithms to supplement traditional genetic algorithms currently used in wind engineering.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A web-based geovisual analytics platform for identifying potential contributors to culvert sedimentation

Sediment accumulation at culverts involves large-scale and interlinked environmental processes that are difficult to address with experimental or physical modeling methods. This article presents an alternative data-driven investigation for shedding insights into these processes. Accordingly, a web-based geovisual analytics application, the IowaDOT platform, was developed, which allows users to explore the complex processes associated with the sediment deposition at culverts. The platform provides systematic procedures for (1) collecting and integrating analytical variables into a single dataset, (2) quantifying the degree of culvert sedimentation using time series of aerial images, (3) identifying drivers that contribute to culvert sedimentation processes from a variety of culvert structural and upstream landscape characteristics using a tree-based feature selection algorithm, and (4) facilitating the understanding of complex spatial and relational patterns of culvert sedimentation processes using multivariate geovisualizations supported by a self-organizing map (SOM). As the outcomes of this study, these patterns identify culvert sedimentation-prone regions in Iowa and quantify empirical relationships between the drivers and culvert sedimentation degrees. Finally, a simple evaluation of the platform was performed to assess the usefulness and user satisfaction of the tool by professional users, and positive feedbacks are received.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Natural Charge-Transfer Analysis: Eliminating Spurious Charge-Transfer States in Time-Dependent Density Functional Theory via Diabatization, with Application to Projection-Based Embedding

For many types of vertical excitation energies, linear-response time-dependent density functional theory (LR-TDDFT) offers a useful degree of accuracy combined with unrivaled computational efficiency, although charge-transfer excitation energies are often systematically and dramatically underestimated, especially for large systems and those that contain explicit solvent. As a result, low energy electronic spectra of solution-phase chromophores often contain tens to hundreds of spurious charge-transfer states, making LR-TDDFT needlessly expensive in bulk solution. More nefariously, intensity borrowing by the low-energy charge-transfer states can affect intensities of the valence excitations even if those excitation energies are accurate. At higher excitation energies, it is difficult to distinguish spurious CT states from genuine charge-transfer-to-solvent (CTTS) excitations. In this work, we introduce an automated diabatization scheme that enables fast and effective screening of the CTTS acceptor space in bulk solution. Our procedure introduces the concept of “natural charge-transfer orbitals”, which provide a means to isolate characteristic pairs of orbitals that are most likely to participate in a CTTS excitation. The projection of these orbitals onto solvent-centered virtual orbitals provides a criterion for defining the most important solvent molecules in a given excitation. We apply this method to analyze an ab initio molecular dynamics (MD) trajectory of I-(aq) and report the lowest-energy CTTS band in the absorption spectrum. Our results are in excellent agreement with experimental measurements for bulk I-(aq), and only one-third of the water molecules in the I-(H2O)96 simulation cell need to be described with LR-TDDFT in order to obtain excitation energies that are converged to < 0.1 eV. The tools introduced herein will improve the accuracy, efficiency, and usability of LR-TDDFT in solution-phase environments

Carter-Fenk, Kevin D.↗