Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “analogy cost estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 55 records · Page 3

Scheduling and Estimating the Cost of Crew Time

In a previous paper, Theory and Application of the Equivalent System Mass Metric, Julie Levri, David Vaccari, and Alan Drysdale developed a method for computing the Equivalent System Mass (ESM) of crew time. ESM is an analog of cost. The suggested approach has been applied but seems to impose too high a cost for small additional requirements for crew time. The proposed method is based on the minimum average cost of crew time. In this work, the scheduling of crew time is examined in more detail, using suggested crew time allocations and daily work schedules. Crew tasks are typically assigned using priorities, which can also be used to construct a crew time demand curve mapping the value or cost per hour versus the total number of hours worked. The cost of additional crew time can be estimated by considering the intersection and shapes of the demand and supply curves. If e assume a mathematical form for the demand curve, a revised method can be developed for computing the cost or ESM of crew time. This method indicates a low cost per hour for small additional requirements for crew time and an increasing cost per hour for larger requirements.

Jones, Harry↗

Satellite Power Systems (SPS) space transportation cost analysis and evaluation

A picture of Space Power Systems space transportation costs at the present time is given with respect to accuracy as stated, reasonableness of the methods used, assumptions made, and uncertainty associated with the estimates. The approach used consists of examining space transportation costs from several perspectives to perform a variety of sensitivity analyses or reviews and examine the findings in terms of internal consistency and external comparison with analogous systems. These approaches are summarized as a theoretical and historical review including a review of stated and unstated assumptions used to derive the costs, and a performance or technical review. These reviews cover the overall transportation program as well as the individual vehicles proposed. The review of overall cost assumptions is the principal means used for estimating the cost uncertainty derived. The cost estimates used as the best current estimate are included.

Source record↗

Estimating the Cost of NASA's Space Launch Initiative: How SLI Cost Stack Up Against the Shuttle

NASA is planning to replace the Space Shuttle with a new completely reusable Second Generation Launch System by approximately 2012. Numerous contracted and NASA in-house Space Transportation Architecture Studies and various technology maturation activities are proceeding and have resulted in scores of competing architecture configurations being proposed. Life cycle cost is a key discriminator between all these various concepts. However, the one obvious analogy for costing purposes remains the current Shuttle system. Are there credible reasons to believe that a second generation reusable launch system can be accomplished at less cost than the Shuttle? The need for a credible answer to this question is critical. This paper reviews the cost estimating approaches being used by the contractors and the government estimators to address this issue and explores the rationale behind the numbers.

Hamaker, Joseph H.↗

A Life-Cycle Cost Estimating Methodology for NASA-Developed Air Traffic Control Decision Support Tools

This paper describes the development of a life-cycle cost (LCC) estimating methodology for air traffic control Decision Support Tools (DSTs) under development by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), using a combination of parametric, analogy, and expert opinion methods. There is no one standard methodology and technique that is used by NASA or by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) for LCC estimation of prospective Decision Support Tools. Some of the frequently used methodologies include bottom-up, analogy, top-down, parametric, expert judgement, and Parkinson's Law. The developed LCC estimating methodology can be visualized as a three-dimensional matrix where the three axes represent coverage, estimation, and timing. This paper focuses on the three characteristics of this methodology that correspond to the three axes.

Wang, Jianzhong Jay↗

An Innovative Approach to Modeling VIPER Rover Software Life Cycle Cost

NASA’s “Volatiles Investigating Polar Exploration Rover” (VIPER) will be the first robotic mission to prospect for water ice near the south pole of the Moon in late 2023 on a 100-Earth-day mission. The information that the VIPER rover provides will help improve understanding of the composition, distribution, and accessibility of Lunar polar volatiles and will help determine how the Moon’s resources can support future human space exploration. VIPER, however, represents a radical departure from the way that NASA has traditionally developed planetary robotic missions. A key consequence of these differences is that estimating the cost of VIPER’s rover software is challenging and complex.For example, VIPER is being developed using management procedures typically applied to NASA research and technology projects, rather than space flight programs. In addition, key portions of the rover’s software are being designed as ground software to run on mission control computers (rather than on-board the rover as flight software as with prior planetary missions) taking advantage of continuous, interactive data communications between the Moon and Earth and higher performance computing available on the ground. Moreover, the rover’s software is being engineered using Agile software development practices and incorporates a significant amount of open-source, rather than following traditional (spiral, waterfall, etc.) development methods and in-house code. In this paper, we present an innovative process to estimate the life cycle cost of VIPER’s rover software. We first describe how we modeled the architecture and code counts for three software elements: Rover Flight Software (RFSW), Rover Ground Software (RGSW), and Rover Simulation Software (RSIM). We then discuss key challenges and unique aspects of our approach, such as the lack of Lunar rover analogies, the need to integrate and test large open source software, and the strategies developed to account for use of non-space flight management practices and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. We conclude with a summary of our results, including cumulative distribution, nearest neighbors and cluster analysis, as well as heuristics used to confirm the reasonableness of the cost estimate.

Utz, Hans↗

Reaction mechanism for atmospheric pressure plasma treatment of cysteine in solution

Mechanisms for the cold atmospheric plasma (CAP) treatment of cells in solution are needed for more optimum design of plasma devices for wound healing, cancer treatment, and bacterial inactivation. However, the complexity of organic molecules on cell membranes makes understanding mechanisms that result in modifications (i.e. oxidation) of such compounds difficult. As a surrogate to these systems, a reaction mechanism for the oxidation of cysteine in CAP activated water was developed and implemented in a 0-dimensional (plug-flow) global plasma chemistry model with the capability of addressing plasma-liquid interactions. Reaction rate coefficients for organic reactions in water were estimated based on available data in the literature or by analogy to gas-phase reactions. The mechanism was validated by comparison to experimental mass-spectrometry data for COST-jets sustained in He/O 2 , He/H 2 O and He/N 2 /O 2 mixtures treating cysteine in water. Results from the model were used to determine the consequences of changing COST-jet operating parameters, such as distance from the substrate and inlet gas composition, on cysteine oxidation product formation. Results indicate that operating parameters can be adjusted to select for desired cysteine oxidation products, including nitrosylated products.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Cost‐Responsive Optimization of Nickel Nanoparticle Synthesis

Abstract Early‐stage cost evaluation during catalyst development holds the potential to accelerate the commercialization and deployment of advanced catalytic materials for sustainable chemical processes. The modeling and assessment of manufacturing costs as early as the laboratory synthesis scale, for example, focusing on materials costs and synthesis performance metrics, can support the development of an experimental–economic feedback loop that enables rapid insight into cost drivers associated with catalyst synthesis and highlights areas that require focused research and development effort. Ultimately, this feedback loop supports the realization of an economic understanding of the overall synthetic process and highlights opportunities to reduce costs, serving as the foundation for the scale‐up of catalyst manufacturing. Herein, a case study is presented utilizing CatCost, a free and publicly available estimation tool for the evaluation of catalyst manufacturing costs, to perform a cost‐responsive optimization of the synthesis of nickel nanoparticles (Ni NPs). It is demonstrated that reagent substitutions with more cost‐effective analogs, coupled with stoichiometric optimization, afford a 58% reduction in raw materials cost without changing the product yield or properties.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Constructing the 'Best' Reliability Data for the Job - Developing Generic Reliability Data from Alternative Sources Early in a Product's Development Phase

Reliability practitioners advocate getting reliability involved early in a product development process. However, when assigned to estimate or assess the (potential) reliability of a product or system early in the design and development phase, they are faced with lack of reasonable models or methods for useful reliability estimation. Developing specific data is costly and time consuming. Instead, analysts rely on available data to assess reliability. Finding data relevant to the specific use and environment for any project is difficult, if not impossible. Instead, analysts attempt to develop the "best" or composite analog data to support the assessments. Industries, consortia and vendors across many areas have spent decades collecting, analyzing and tabulating fielded item and component reliability performance in terms of observed failures and operational use. This data resource provides a huge compendium of information for potential use, but can also be compartmented by industry, difficult to find out about, access, or manipulate. One method used incorporates processes for reviewing these existing data sources and identifying the available information based on similar equipment, then using that generic data to derive an analog composite. Dissimilarities in equipment descriptions, environment of intended use, quality and even failure modes impact the "best" data incorporated in an analog composite. Once developed, this composite analog data provides a "better" representation of the reliability of the equipment or component. It can be used to support early risk or reliability trade studies, or analytical models to establish the predicted reliability data points. It also establishes a baseline prior that may updated based on test data or observed operational constraints and failures, i.e., using Bayesian techniques. This tutorial presents a descriptive compilation of historical data sources across numerous industries and disciplines, along with examples of contents and data characteristics. It then presents methods for combining failure information from different sources and mathematical use of this data in early reliability estimation and analyses.

Kleinhammer, Roger K.↗

Techno-Economic, Feasibility, and Life Cycle Analysis of Renewable Propane: 2025 Update

To clarify the current and future landscape for renewable propane (RP) production, this work evaluates the value proposition of recovering RP from existing and planned hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA) biorefineries and surveys emerging technologies under development or deployment. HEFA biorefineries co-produce a propane-rich fuel gas stream, normally used to meet HEFA process heat requirements, from which propane can be recovered and sold to create an additional revenue stream alongside liquid transportation fuels such as renewable diesel (RD) and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). This report updates and extends a 2022 analysis of RP recovery from HEFA facilities by escalating capital and operating costs to 2024 prices, incorporating recent policy developments (including the Section 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit), evaluating RP recovery for both RD- and SAF-focused HEFA facilities at two scales (3,000 and 75,000 barrels per day of feedstock), and quantifying the impact of RP recovery on HEFA liquid-fuel carbon intensity (CI) and associated tax credits using the 45ZCF-GREET model. For a 3,000 BPD RD-focused HEFA facility, approximately 3.5 million gallons per year (MGPY) of RP can be recovered; in this base case, the estimated payback period is 18 months based on the total installed cost of the RP recovery equipment and 36 months based on the total capital investment for the entire RP recovery project. The payback period is slightly shorter for the analogous SAF-focused configuration (approximately 4.3 MGPY RP). Sensitivity analysis shows that CAPEX magnitude, RP recovery plant scale, and CI-driven tax credit valuations are the dominant determinants of project viability. RP recovery may increase the CI of HEFA liquid fuels, which can reduce liquid-fuel tax credits (a key revenue stream for the HEFA biorefinery) and lengthen payback periods. However, RP recovery generally remains economically favorable across a wide range of plausible scenarios and market conditions. The report also summarizes emerging pathways that could expand future RP supply.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Zero and Finite Temperature Quantum Simulations Powered by Quantum Magic

We introduce a quantum information theory-inspired method to improve the characterization of many-body Hamiltonians on near-term quantum devices. We design a new class of similarity transformations that, when applied as a preprocessing step, can substantially simplify a Hamiltonian for subsequent analysis on quantum hardware. By design, these transformations can be identified and applied efficiently using purely classical resources. In practice, these transformations allow us to shorten requisite physical circuit-depths, overcoming constraints imposed by imperfect near-term hardware. Importantly, the quality of our transformations is t u n a b l e : we define a 'ladder' of transformations that yields increasingly simple Hamiltonians at the cost of more classical computation. Using quantum chemistry as a benchmark application, we demonstrate that our protocol leads to significant performance improvements for zero and finite temperature free energy calculations on both digital and analog quantum hardware. Specifically, our energy estimates not only outperform traditional Hartree-Fock solutions, but this performance gap also consistently widens as we tune up the quality of our transformations. In short, our quantum information-based approach opens promising new pathways to realizing useful and feasible quantum chemistry algorithms on near-term hardware.

Physics↗

Parametric Cost Modeling of Space Missions Using the Develop New Projects (DMP) Implementation Process

This paper presents an overview of a parametric cost model that has been built at JPL to estimate costs of future, deep space, robotic science missions. Due to the recent dramatic changes in JPL business practices brought about by an internal reengineering effort known as develop new products (DNP), high-level historic cost data is no longer considered analogous to future missions. Therefore, the historic data is of little value in forecasting costs for projects developed using the DNP process. This has lead to the development of an approach for obtaining expert opinion and also for combining actual data with expert opinion to provide a cost database for future missions. In addition, the DNP cost model has a maximum of objective cost drivers which reduces the likelihood of model input error. Version 2 is now under development which expands the model capabilities, links it more tightly with key design technical parameters, and is grounded in more rigorous statistical techniques. The challenges faced in building this model will be discussed, as well as it's background, development approach, status, validation, and future plans.

Rosenberg, Leigh↗

An analysis code for the Rapid Engineering Estimation of Momentum and Energy Losses (REMEL)

Nonideal behavior has traditionally been modeled by defining efficiency (a comparison between actual and isentropic processes), and subsequent specification by empirical or heuristic methods. With the increasing complexity of aeropropulsion system designs, the reliability of these more traditional methods is uncertain. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and experimental methods can provide this information but are expensive in terms of human resources, cost, and time. This report discusses an alternative to empirical and CFD methods by applying classical analytical techniques and a simplified flow model to provide rapid engineering estimates of these losses based on steady, quasi-one-dimensional governing equations including viscous and heat transfer terms (estimated by Reynold's analogy). A preliminary verification of REMEL has been compared with full Navier-Stokes (FNS) and CFD boundary layer computations for several high-speed inlet and forebody designs. Current methods compare quite well with more complex method results and solutions compare very well with simple degenerate and asymptotic results such as Fanno flow, isentropic variable area flow, and a newly developed, combined variable area duct with friction flow solution. These solution comparisons may offer an alternative to transitional and CFD-intense methods for the rapid estimation of viscous and heat transfer losses in aeropropulsion systems.

Dechant, Lawrence J.↗

Labor Estimation and Trending in an Operations Environment

Accurate cost estimation for future work is important for ensuring that organizations have the personnel and resources needed to complete a task successfully. Operations support in particular provides additional challenges for estimating cost. Unlike manufacturing-based work, it may be difficult to derive a "cost per product," and projects that appear to be similar may have drastically different underlying assumptions. In addition, for critical operations, a certain level of adaptability to changing circumstances is expected. Responding to contingencies or anomalies requires additional support and troubleshooting, and could result in increases to project cost. Labor estimation is one of the most important inputs for estimating the cost of an operations-based project, especially in a pre-established facility. Various methods are needed to develop reliable estimates. These methods include a bottom-up summarization of known or expected work items, and a top-down estimate generated by trending and scaling actual labor from past analogous operations support.

Laing, Jason↗

Introduction: Neuromorphic Materials

The explosive growth in data collection and the need to process it efficiently, as well as the desire to automate increasingly complex tasks in transportation, medical care, manufacturing, security and many other fields have motivated a growing interest in neuromorphic computing. Unlike the binary, transistorbased ON/OFF logic gates and separate logic and memory functionalities employed in digital computing, neuromorphic computing is inspired by animal brains that use interconnected synapses and neurons to perform processing, storage and transmission of information at the same location, while only consuming ~20 W or less of power. Motivated by the brain’s efficiency, adaptability, self-learning and resiliency qualities, neuromorphic computing can be broadly defined as an approach to processing and storing information using hardware and algorithms inspired by models of biological neural systems. Present research in neuromorphic computing encompasses approaches that vary significantly in their degree of neuro-inspiration, from systems that only incorporate features such as asynchronous, event-driven operation or use crossbar arrays of non-volatile memory (NVM) elements to accelerate deep neural networks (DNNs), to designs that embrace the extreme parallelism, sparsity, reconfigurability, adaptability, complexity and stochasticity observed in nervous systems. The term ‘neuromorphic’ computing is often credited to Carver Mead, who in the 1980s investigated Si-based analog electronics to replicate functions of the animal retina. Earlier important advances in this field include the work of Frank Rosenblatt, who proposed the concept of the perceptron, Bernard Widrow, who used this concept to build one of the first analog neural networks, the Adaline and many other researchers (see ref. 6 for an historical perspective on neuromorphic computing). With the recent increase in the use of artificial intelligence and large language models, and rising concerns over the associated energy costs, interest in neuromorphic hardware has expanded rapidly. According to some estimates, driven largely by the drastic growth in the training use of artificial intelligence (AI) models using the current computing architectures, the energy cost of computing is projected to reach the energy supply worldwide by 2045. Furthermore, while this is not a realistic outcome, it means that, if more efficient computing technologies are not developed -- soon -- the world will soon become one where demand for energy and market constraints limit the continued increase of societal access to AI and cloud services from data centers. Data centers used for training and use of these models consume hundreds of terawatt hours of electricity, already past 4% of the US electricity demand.

Circuits↗

Quantitative Risk Analysis of High Safety Significant Safety-related Digital Instrumentation and Control Systems in Nuclear Power Plants using IRADIC Technology

This report documents the activities performed by Idaho National Laboratory (INL) during fiscal year (FY) 2021 for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, Risk Informed Systems Analysis (RISA) Pathway, digital instrumentation and control (DI&C) Risk Assessment project. In FY-2019, the RISA Pathway initiated a project to develop a risk assessment strategy for delivering a strong technical basis to support effective, licensable, and secure DI&C technologies for digital upgrades/designs. An integrated risk assessment technology for the DI&C systems (IRADIC technology) was proposed for this strategy, which aims to (1) provide a best-estimate risk-informed capability to quantitatively and accurately estimate the safety margin obtained from plant modernization, especially for the High Safety Significant Safety-related (HSSSR) DI&C systems, (2) develop an advanced risk assessment technology to support transition from analog to DI&C technologies for nuclear industry, (3) assure the long-term safety and reliability of vital HSSSR DI&C systems, (4) reduce uncertainty in costs and support integration of DI&C systems in the plant. To achieve these technical goals and deal with the expensive licensing justifications from regulatory insights, the IRADIC technology is instructive for nuclear vendors and utilities to effectively lower the costs associated with digital compliance and speed industry advances by: (1) defining an integrated risk-informed analysis process for DI&C upgrade, including hazard analysis, reliability analysis, and consequence analysis, (2) applying systematic and risk-informed tools to address common cause failures (CCFs) and quantify responding failure probabilities for DI&C technologies, particularly software CCFs, (3) evaluating the impact of digital failures at the individual level, system level, and plant level, (4) providing insights and suggestions on designs to manage the risks; thus, to support the development, licensing, and deployment of advanced DI&C technologies on nuclear power plant (NPPs). In this report, an approach for performing software CCF analysis, given limited data, is developed and demonstrated using a case study of a highly redundant digital reactor trip system. Consequence analysis is also performed based on different accident scenarios. Results indicate that plant modernization including the improvement of HSSSR DI&C systems will make great benefits to plant safety by providing more safety margins to accident management. In addition, a novel approach is proposed in this report for the quantification of software hazards when sufficient operational and testing data available. The method incorporates software development quality as well as strong analysis techniques to identify and link software defects to potential failure modes. The approach includes both semantic and test-based analysis to detect failures that can exist in different stages of the software development life cycle. This method is applied to an advanced human system interface relevant to reactor trip safety developed from the APR 1400 design.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Foundations of measurement and instrumentation

The user of instrumentation has provided an understanding of the factors that influence instrument performance, selection, and application, and of the methods of interpreting and presenting the results of measurements. Such understanding is prerequisite to the successful attainment of the best compromise among reliability, accuracy, speed, cost, and importance of the measurement operation in achieving the ultimate goal of a project. Some subjects covered are dimensions; units; sources of measurement error; methods of describing and estimating accuracy; deduction and presentation of results through empirical equations, including the method of least squares; experimental and analytical methods of determining the static and dynamic behavior of instrumentation systems, including the use of analogs.

Warshawsky, Isidore↗

Seeing through noise in power laws

Despite widespread claims of power laws across the natural and social sciences, evidence in data is often equivocal. Modern data and statistical methods reject even classic power laws such as Pareto’s law of wealth and the Gutenberg–Richter law for earthquake magnitudes. We show that the maximum-likelihood estimators and Kolmogorov–Smirnov (K-S) statistics in widespread use are unexpectedly sensitive to ubiquitous errors in data such as measurement noise, quantization noise, heaping and censorship of small values. This sensitivity causes spurious rejection of power laws and biases parameter estimates even in arbitrarily large samples, which explains inconsistencies between theory and data. We show that logarithmic binning by powers of λ > 1 attenuates these errors in a manner analogous to noise averaging in normal statistics and that λ thereby tunes a trade-off between accuracy and precision in estimation. Binning also removes potentially misleading within-scale information while preserving information about the shape of a distribution over powers of λ, and we show that some amount of binning can improve sensitivity and specificity of K-S tests without any cost, while more extreme binning tunes a trade-off between sensitivity and specificity. We therefore advocate logarithmic binning as a simple essential step in power-law inference.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗