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Constellation Program Life-cycle Cost Analysis Model (LCAM)

The Constellation Program (CxP) is NASA's effort to replace the Space Shuttle, return humans to the moon, and prepare for a human mission to Mars. The major elements of the Constellation Lunar sortie design reference mission architecture are shown. Unlike the Apollo Program of the 1960's, affordability is a major concern of United States policy makers and NASA management. To measure Constellation affordability, a total ownership cost life-cycle parametric cost estimating capability is required. This capability is being developed by the Constellation Systems Engineering and Integration (SE&I) Directorate, and is called the Lifecycle Cost Analysis Model (LCAM). The requirements for LCAM are based on the need to have a parametric estimating capability in order to do top-level program analysis, evaluate design alternatives, and explore options for future systems. By estimating the total cost of ownership within the context of the planned Constellation budget, LCAM can provide Program and NASA management with the cost data necessary to identify the most affordable alternatives. LCAM is also a key component of the Integrated Program Model (IPM), an SE&I developed capability that combines parametric sizing tools with cost, schedule, and risk models to perform program analysis. LCAM is used in the generation of cost estimates for system level trades and analyses. It draws upon the legacy of previous architecture level cost models, such as the Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) Architecture Cost Model (ARCOM) developed for Simulation Based Acquisition (SBA), and ATLAS. LCAM is used to support requirements and design trade studies by calculating changes in cost relative to a baseline option cost. Estimated costs are generally low fidelity to accommodate available input data and available cost estimating relationships (CERs). LCAM is capable of interfacing with the Integrated Program Model to provide the cost estimating capability for that suite of tools.

Prince, Andy

Data for Bistline, et al. (2025) "Policy Implications of Net-Zero Emissions: A Multi-Model Analysis of United States Emissions and Energy System Impacts"

These files contain input assumptions, results, and figures associated with the Bistline, et al. (2025) article "Policy Implications of Net-Zero Emissions: A Multi-Model Analysis of United States Emissions and Energy System Impacts" in Energy and Climate Change as part of the Energy Modeling Forum 37 study. Please refer to the original paper for details.

climate policy

Statistical-band-model analysis and integrated intensity for the 21.8 micrometer bands of HNO3 vapor

A large number of low-resolution quantitative spectra were obtained for a band-model analysis of 21.8-micrometer bands. The experimental investigations were conducted with pure nitric-acid vapor at 40 C, taking into account pressures in the range from a few torr to a pressure which is close to the saturation pressure. It is pointed out that the obtained data, in addition to those from the 11.3-micrometer band, can be used for an independent determination of the nitric acid vertical distribution in the stratosphere.

Goldman, A.

A modeling analysis program for the JPL Table Mountain Io sodium cloud data

Progress and achievements in the second year are discussed in three main areas: (1) data quality review of the 1981 Region B/C images; (2) data processing activities; and (3) modeling activities. The data quality review revealed that almost all 1981 Region B/C images are of sufficient quality to be valuable in the analyses of the JPL data set. In the second area, the major milestone reached was the successful development and application of complex image-processing software required to render the original image data suitable for modeling analysis studies. In the third area, the lifetime description of sodium atoms in the planet magnetosphere was improved in the model to include the offset dipole nature of the magnetic field as well as an east-west electric field. These improvements are important in properly representing the basic morphology as well as the east-west asymmetries of the sodium cloud.

Smyth, W. H.

Fine-Scale Comparison of TOMS Total Ozone Data with Model Analysis of an Intense Midwestern Cyclone

High-resolution (approx. 40 km) along-track total column ozone data from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) instrument are compared with a high-resolution mesoscale numerical model analysis of an intense cyclone in the Midwestern United States. Total ozone increased by 100 DU (nearly 38%) as the TOMS instrument passed over the associated tropopause fold region. Complex structure is seen in the meteorological fields and compares well with the total ozone observations. Ozone data support the meteorological analysis showing that stratospheric descent was confined to levels above approx. 600 hPa; significant positive potential vorticity at lower levels is attributable to diabetic processes. Likewise, meteorological fields show that two pronounced ozone streamers extending north and northeastward into Canada at high levels are not bands of stratospheric air feeding into the cyclone; one is a channel of exhaust downstream from the system, and the other apparently previously connected the main cyclonic circulation to a southward intrusion of polar stratospheric air and advected eastward as the cut-off cyclone evolved. Good agreement between small-scale features in the model output and total ozone data underscores the latter's potential usefulness in diagnosing upper tropospheric/lower stratospheric dynamics and kinematics.

Olsen, Mark A.

Graphical User Interface for Simulink Integrated Performance Analysis Model

The J-2X Engine (built by Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne,) in the Upper Stage of the Ares I Crew Launch Vehicle, will only start within a certain range of temperature and pressure for Liquid Hydrogen and Liquid Oxygen propellants. The purpose of the Simulink Integrated Performance Analysis Model is to verify that in all reasonable conditions the temperature and pressure of the propellants are within the required J-2X engine start boxes. In order to run the simulation, test variables must be entered at all reasonable values of parameters such as heat leak and mass flow rate. To make this testing process as efficient as possible in order to save the maximum amount of time and money, and to show that the J-2X engine will start when it is required to do so, a graphical user interface (GUI) was created to allow the input of values to be used as parameters in the Simulink Model, without opening or altering the contents of the model. The GUI must allow for test data to come from Microsoft Excel files, allow those values to be edited before testing, place those values into the Simulink Model, and get the output from the Simulink Model. The GUI was built using MATLAB, and will run the Simulink simulation when the Simulate option is activated. After running the simulation, the GUI will construct a new Microsoft Excel file, as well as a MATLAB matrix file, using the output values for each test of the simulation so that they may graphed and compared to other values.

Durham, R. Caitlyn

Space Station user traffic model analysis for mission payload servicing into the twenty-first century

The Space Station-based Customer Servicing Facility service bay requirements for service accommodation to the Initial Orbit Capability (IOC) and far-term Station Accommodation Test Sets (SETS) missions are analyzed using the developed mission traffic model. Analysis results are presented which indicate that one servicing bay will be sufficient to accommodate IOC customer servicing requirements. Growth servicing requirements indicate that an additional servicing bay will be needed for accommodation of the far-term SATS mission payloads. Even though the level of total mission accommodation is below 100 percent for one bay at IOC and two bays during growth operations, the levels are such that operational work-around exists so that additional servicing bays will not be required.

Gould, G. J.

Hidden Markov model analysis of force/torque information in telemanipulation

A model for the prediction and analysis of sensor information recorded during robotic performance of telemanipulation tasks is presented. The model uses the hidden Markov model to describe the task structure, the operator's or intelligent controller's goal structure, and the sensor signals. A methodology for constructing the model parameters based on engineering knowledge of the task is described. It is concluded that the model and its optimal state estimation algorithm, the Viterbi algorithm, are very succesful at the task of segmenting the data record into phases corresponding to subgoals of the task. The model provides a rich modeling structure within a statistical framework, which enables it to represent complex systems and be robust to real-world sensory signals.

Hannaford, Blake

A modeling analysis program for the JPL table mountain Io sodium cloud data

Research in the third and final year of this project is divided into three main areas: (1) completion of data processing and calibration for 34 of the 1981 Region B/C images, selected from the massive JPL sodium cloud data set; (2) identification and examination of the basic features and observed changes in the morphological characteristics of the sodium cloud images; and (3) successful physical interpretation of these basic features and observed changes using the highly developed numerical sodium cloud model at AER. The modeling analysis has led to a number of definite conclusions regarding the local structure of Io's atmosphere, the gas escape mechanism at Io, and the presence of an east-west electric field and a System III longitudinal asymmetry in the plasma torus. Large scale stability, as well as some smaller scale time variability for both the sodium cloud and the structure of the plasma torus over a several year time period are also discussed.

Smyth, William H.

The CICT Earth Science Systems Analysis Model

Contents include the following: Computing Information and Communications Technology (CICT) Systems Analysis. Our modeling approach: a 3-part schematic investment model of technology change, impact assessment and prioritization. A whirlwind tour of our model. Lessons learned.

Pell, Barney

Pilot/vehicle model analysis of visual and motion cue requirements in flight simulation

The optimal control model for pilot/vehicle analysis is used to explore the effects of a CGI visual system and motion system dynamics on helicopter hover simulation fidelity. This is accomplished by expanding the perceptual aspects of the model to include motion sensing and by relating CGI parameters to information processing parameters of the model. Simulator fidelity is examined by comparing predicted performance and workload for flight with that predicted for various simulator configuration. The results of the analysis suggest that simulator deficiencies or a reasonable nature (by current standards) can result in substantial performance and/or workload infidelity. Both CGI and motion system effects are significant for this task. There is also a distinct interaction between the two sources of pilot cues. In particular, the presence of motion reduces the sensitivity to CGI limitations.

Lancraft, R.

Bridging the Gap Between Requirements and Model Analysis : Evaluation on Ten Cyber-Physical Challenge Problems

Formal verfication and simulation are powerful tools to validate requirements against complex systems. [Problem] Requirements are developed in early stages of the software lifecycle and are typically written in ambiguous natural language. There is a gap between such requirements and formal notations that can be used by verification tools, and lack of support for proper association of requirements with software artifacts for verification. [Principal idea] We propose to write requirements in an intuitive, structured natural language with formal semantics, and to support formalization and model/code verification as a smooth, well-integrated process. [Contribution] We have developed an end-to-end, open source requirements analysis framework that checks Simulink models against requirements written in structured natural language. Our framework is built in the Formal Requirements Elicitation Tool (fret); we use fret's requirements language named fretish, and formalization of fretish requirements in temporal logics. Our proposed framework contributes the following features: 1) automatic extraction of Simulink model information and association of fretish requirements with target model signals and components; 2) translation of temporal logic formulas into synchronous dataflow cocospec specifications as well as Simulink monitors, to be used by verification tools; we establish correctness of our translation through extensive automated testing; 3) interpretation of counterexamples produced by verification tools back at requirements level. These features support a tight integration and feedback loop between high level requirements and their analysis. We demonstrate our approach on a major case study: the Ten Lockheed Martin Cyber-Physical, aerospace-inspired challenge problems.

Mavridou, Anastasia

Predicting System Accidents with Model Analysis During Hybrid Simulation

Standard discrete event simulation is commonly used to identify system bottlenecks and starving and blocking conditions in resources and services. The CONFIG hybrid discrete/continuous simulation tool can simulate such conditions in combination with inputs external to the simulation. This provides a means for evaluating the vulnerability to system accidents of a system's design, operating procedures, and control software. System accidents are brought about by complex unexpected interactions among multiple system failures , faulty or misleading sensor data, and inappropriate responses of human operators or software. The flows of resource and product materials play a central role in the hazardous situations that may arise in fluid transport and processing systems. We describe the capabilities of CONFIG for simulation-time linear circuit analysis of fluid flows in the context of model-based hazard analysis. We focus on how CONFIG simulates the static stresses in systems of flow. Unlike other flow-related properties, static stresses (or static potentials) cannot be represented by a set of state equations. The distribution of static stresses is dependent on the specific history of operations performed on a system. We discuss the use of this type of information in hazard analysis of system designs.

Malin, Jane T.

Implementation of a Trailing-Edge Flap Analysis Model in the NASA Langley CAMRAD.MOD1/Hires Program

Continual advances in rotorcraft performance, vibration and acoustic characteristics are being sought by rotary-wing vehicle manufacturers to improve efficiency, handling qualities and community noise acceptance of their products. The rotor system aerodynamic and dynamic behavior are among the key factors which must be addressed to meet the desired goals. Rotor aerodynamicists study how airload redistribution impacts performance and noise, and seek ways to achieve better airload distribution through changes in local aerodynamic response characteristics. One method currently receiving attention is the use of trailing-edge flaps mounted on the rotor blades to provide direct control of a portion of the spanwise lift characteristics. The following work describes the incorporation of a trailing-edge flap model in the CAMRAD.Mod1/FHUS comprehensive rotorcraft analysis code. The CAM-RAD.Mod1/HIRES analysis consists of three separate executable codes. These include the comprehensive trim analysis, CAMRAD.Mod1, the Indicial Post-Processor, IPP, for high resolution airloads, and AIRFOIL, which produces the rotor airfoil tables from input airfoil section characteristics. The modifications made to these components permitting analysis of flapped rotor configurations are documented herein along with user instructions detailing the new input variables and operational notes.

Charles, Bruce

Model Analysis of the Factors Regulating Trends and Variability of Methane, Carbon Monoxide and OH: 1. Model Validation

Methane (CH4) is the second most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG). Its 100-year global warming potential (GWP) is 25 times larger than that for carbon dioxide. The 100-yr integrated GWP of CH4 is sensitive to changes in OH levels. Methane's atmospheric growth rate was estimated to be more than 10 ppb yr(exp -1) in 1998 but less than zero in 2001, 2004 and 2005 (Kirschke et al., 2013). Since 2006, the CH4 is increasing again. This phenomena is yet not well understood. Oxidation of CH4 by OH is the main loss process, thus affecting the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere and contributing to the global ozone background. Current models typically use an annual cycle of offline OH fields to simulate CH4. The implemented OH fields in these models are typically tuned so that simulated CH4 growth rates match that measured. For future and climate simulations, the OH tuning technique may not be suitable. In addition, running full chemistry, multi-decadal CH4 simulations is a serious challenge and currently, due to computational intensity, almost impossible.

OH

Remote Sensing-Driven Hydrodynamic Modeling in Data-Scarce Regions: Integrating ICESat-2, Sentinel-2, SWOT and Re-analysis Models for Coastal Monitoring

Hydrodynamic models in coastal and estuarine systems are typically constrained by sparse bathymetry, boundary, and validation data, especially in regions where field campaigns are costly or impractical. Here we develop and test a fully satellite-driven framework for hydrodynamic modeling in South Africa’s Langebaan Lagoon without using any local in situ measurements. Bathymetry is derived by training multispectral Sentinel-2 reflectance against ICESat-2 ATL24 photon-derived depths using an XGBoost model optimized with Bayesian search. The final satellite-derived bathymetry reproduces independent ATL24 points with RMSE = 0.45 m and R 2 = 0.97. This bathymetry was used in a depth-averaged Delft3D Flexible Mesh model driven at the open boundary by TPXO tidal harmonics and by ERA5 winds. We validate modeled water surface elevation against 16 SWOT low-rate (250 m, unsmoothed) passes in 2023. SWOT–model comparisons yield an overall RMSE of 0.11 m and R 2 = 0.61, with typical point differences <0.10 m (∼7% of the 1.5 m tidal range), and showed consistent spatial gradients in water level from the offshore boundary, through Saldanha Bay, and into the lagoon. At the offshore boundary, TPXO and SWOT sea surface heights agree closely (R 2 = 0.86). A simple phase adjustment of ∼26,min between TPXO and SWOT lowers the RMSE from 0.18,m to 0.11,m, showing that phase offset accounts for some of the discrepancy, with additional errors likely linked to non-tidal signals. Our results demonstrate that combining passive optical, photon-counting LiDAR, radar interferometry, and global tidal/atmospheric models enables robust, transferrable hydrodynamic modeling in data-scarce coastal systems, offering a cost-effective pathway for monitoring.

ICESat-2

Gateway Integrated ECLSS Model Analysis of Intermodule Ventilation Failures

The Gateway Integrated ECLSS Model (GIEM) is a set of two independent models, made in Aspen Custom Modeler (ACM) and Thermal Desktop (TD), of the Gateway stack and each modules' associated environment control and life support system (ECLSS). The GIEM utilizes the 41-Node Metabolic Man (METMAN) to simulate crew inside the Gateway consuming O2 and producing CO2, H2O, and heat for the ECLSS to remove. The modules and visiting vehicles all have different levels of ECLSS capabilities and may rely on other modules and Intermodular Ventilation (IMV), which is used to exchange gas between the modules, to ensure the entire Gateway environment is controlled. If IMV were to fail or be turned off, some vehicles may have limited access to necessary ECLSS functions. This analysis focuses on evaluating O2, CO2, and H2O levels when crew are in vehicles without their own life support and IMV has failed to evaluate how long before the atmosphere is unsafe for the crew. This analysis uses the integrated nature of the GIEM to look at time to effect for O2 depletion and CO2 and H2O buildup when crew are working in vehicles that have been cut off from the ECLSS-active portion of the stack. This information is used to inform for how long crew can safely continue working in the ECLSS-inactive vehicles before experiencing a requirement violation or physical limitation and can be referenced when developing maintenance and emergency response concept of operations (ConOps).

Lawrence Barrett