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The collision with earth of near-earth asteroids or comet nuclei poses a potential threat to mankind. Objects about 100 m in diameter could be diverted from an earth-crossing trajectory by the impact of a rocket-launched mass, but for larger bodies nuclear explosions seem to be the only practical means of deflection. Fragmentation of the body by nuclear charges is less efficient or secure.
Laboratory impact experiments were performed to investigate the conditions that produce large-scale damage in rock targets. Aluminum cylinders (6.3 mm diameter) impacted basalt cylinders (69 mm diameter) at speeds ranging from 0.7 to 2.0 km/s. Diagnostics included measurements of the largest fragment mass, velocities of the largest remnant and large fragments ejected from the periphery of the target, and X-ray computed tomography imaging to inspect some of the impacted targets for internal damage. Significant damage to the target occurred when the kinetic energy per unit target mass exceeded roughly 1/4 of the energy required for catastrophic shattering (where the target is reduced to one-half its original mass). Scaling laws based on a rate-dependent strength were developed that provide a basis for extrapolating the results to larger strength-dominated collisions. The threshold specific energy for widespread damage was found to scale with event size in the same manner as that for catastrophic shattering. Therefore, the factor of four difference between the two thresholds observed in the lab also applies to larger collisions. The scaling laws showed that for a sequence of collisions that are similar in that they produce the same ratio of largest fragment mass to original target mass, the fragment velocities decrease with increasing event size. As a result, rocky asteroids a couple hundred meters in diameter should retain their large ejecta fragments in a jumbled rubble-pile state. For somewhat larger bodies, the ejection velocities are sufficiently low that large fragments are essentially retained in place, possibly forming ordered "brick-pile" structures.
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Movements of the celestial bodies in our solar system inspired Isaac Newton to work out his profound laws of gravitation and motion; with one or two notable exceptions, all of those objects move as Newton said they would. But normally harmonious orbital motion is accompanied by the risk of collision, which can be cataclysmic. The Earth s moon is thought to have been produced by such an event, and we recently witnessed magnificent bombardments of Jupiter by several pieces of what was once Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9. Other comets or asteroids may have met the Earth with such violence that dinosaurs and other forms of life became extinct; it is this possibility that causes us to ask how the human species might avoid a similar catastrophe, and the answer requires a thorough understanding of orbital motion. The two red square flags with black square centers displayed are internationally recognized as a warning of an impending hurricane. Mariners and coastal residents who know the meaning of this symbol and the signs evident in the sky and ocean can act in advance to try to protect lives and property; someone who is unfamiliar with the warning signs or chooses to ignore them is in much greater jeopardy. Although collisions between Earth and large comets or asteroids occur much less frequently than landfall of a hurricane, it is imperative that we learn to identify the harbingers of such collisions by careful examination of an object s path. An accurate determination of the orbit of a comet or asteroid is necessary in order to know if, when, and where on the Earth s surface a collision will occur. Generally speaking, the longer the warning time, the better the chance of being able to plan and execute action to prevent a collision. The more accurate the determination of an orbit, the less likely such action will be wasted effort or, what is worse, an effort that increases rather than decreases the probability of a collision. Conditions necessary for a collision to occur are discussed, and warning times for long-period comets and near-Earth asteroids are presented.
Data in the Infrared Astronomical Satellite (IRAS) Zodiacal History File were analyzed to extract dust band locations and peak brightness measurements from approximately 1,000 individual IRAS scans. The study had three goals. One was to show that the prominent solar system dust bands are associated with Hirayama asteroid families and thus that collisions between asteroids account for a significant fraction of the particles in the zodiacal cloud. Recent work suggests that while the Hirayama families are a major source of the dust in the bands, there may also be contributions from two or three smaller, more recently recognized asteroid families. A second goal was to show that there is evidence in the IRAS dust data for the transport of particles from asteroid belt to the Earth by Poynting-Robertson light drag and thus account for the fact that asteroid particles are collected in the Earth's stratosphere. Results of the study will confirm the location of the dust bands within the inner asteroid belt, and show conclusively that the material seen by IRAS is now spread over a wide range of distances from the sun. The third goal was to construct a model of the background zodiacal cloud that satisfies the proper dynamical constraints. Figures are provided to show the scans processed to remove zodiacal background and Galactic signals, and the resulting polynomial fits to the 25 micron scan. The latter provided objective estimates of band widths, peak locations, and peak fluxes. Modelling and analysis of the resulting band data has been presented at several conferences and is the subject of a number of forthcoming papers.
Since direct observation of the collision of asteroids in space is not always convenient for earthbound observers, we have undertaken simulations of these collisions using the NASA Ames Vertical Gun Range (AVGR). To simulate the collision of asteroids in space, and aluminum projectiles with velocities ranging from approx.1 to approx.6 km/sec were fired at 70g to approx.200 g fragments of chondritic meteorites. The target meteorite was placed in an evacuated chamber at the AVGR. Detectors, usually four, were set up around the target meteorite. These detectors consisted of aerogel and aluminum foil of varying thickness. The aerogel's purpose was to catch debris after the collision, and the aluminum foil.s purpose was to show the size of the debris particles through the size of the holes in the aluminum foil. Outside the chamber, a camera was set up to record high-speed film of the collision. This camera recorded at either 500 frames per second or 1000 frames per second. Three different types of targets were used for these tests. The first were actual meteorites, which varied in mineralogical composition, density, and porosity. The second type of target was a Hawaiian basalt, consisting of olivine phenocrysts in a porous matrix, which we thought might be similar to the chondritic meteorites, thus providing data for comparison. The final type was made out of Styrofoam. The Styrofoam was thought to simulate very low-density asteroids and comets.
The discovery, with the Spacewatch Telescope, of 8 Earth-approaching objects smaller than 100 m in diameter has been reported. I have calculated the probability and velocity of collision with Earth for each of these objects. Using a code we have successfully employed to model the Tunguska and Revelstoke atmospheric explosions, I have simulated the entry of these objects into Earth's atmosphere, assuming iron, stony, carbonaceous, and cometary compositions. The smallest of these objects, with tens to hundreds of kilotons of kinetic energy, pose a substantial threat at the surface only if they are iron objects. An object is taken to 'pose a substantial threat' if it either craters the ground, or explodes in the atmosphere with sufficient energy at low enough altitude to create an overpressure at the surface capable of felling trees or destroying buildings. Larger objects, with energies greater than about a megaton, devastate the surface regardless of whether they are of iron, stony, or carbonaceous composition. Iron objects crater the ground, whereas stony and carbonaceous objects explode in the atmosphere low enough to fell trees and damage buildings over thousands of square kilometers. Spacewatch objects, if presumed to be of carbonaceous composition, are as dangerous as their stony counterparts, as the former objects' lower yield strengths (and hence, higher explosion altitudes) are roughly compensated by their larger masses (as derived from their lower albedos for a given observed magnitude). Although comets are intrinsically less dangerous than asteroids, the 90 m diameter Spacewatch objects would devastate hundreds of square kilometers at the surface, even if cometary.
We investigate the effect on the dynamics of a binary asteroid in the case of a near encounter with a third body. The dynamics of the binary is modeled as a two-body problem perturbed by an approaching body in the following ways: near encounters and collisions with a component of the system. In each case, the typical value of the two-body energy variation is estimated, and a random walk for the cumulative effect is assumed. Results are applied to some binary asteroid candidates. The main conclusion is that the collisional disruption is the dominant effect, giving lifetimes comparable to or larger than the age of the solar system.
A substantial body of indirect evidence suggests that some asteroids have satellites, although none has been detected unambiguously. Collisions between asteroids provide physically plausible mechanisms for the production of binaries, but these operate with low probability; only a small minority of asteroids are likely to have satellites. The abundance of binary asteorids can constrain the collisional history of the entire belt population. The allowed angular momentum of binaries and their rate of tidal evolution limit separations to no more than a few tens of the primary's radii. Their expected properties are consistent with failure to detect them by current imaging techniques.
New calculations of the collision probabilities of asteroids and comets with Venus were carried out based on the orbits of the known Venus-crossing asteroids and comets. For comparison, asteroid and comet collision probabilities and cratering rates on the Earth and Moon were recalculated and the estimated cratering rates on Venus were normalized to those of the Earth.
A number of optical and physical parameters are derived on the basis of ground-based, spacecraft, and rocket photometry and polarimetry, under the assumption that number density, mean particle size, and albedo, vary with heliocentric distance. It is noted that average individual interplanetary particles have a small but definite opposition effect, involving a single scattering albedo in the V-band and a zero-phase geometric albedo; modeled by a power law, both decrease with increasing heliocentric distance as r to the -0.54 power. The color of dust particles and the color's variation with solar phase angle, closely resemble those of C asteroids. These findings are consistent with the zodiacal cloud's origin in collisions among asteroids.
The orbital evolutions of 1-45 km-diameter Apollo and Amor bodies generated by asteroid belt collisions interior to 2.6 AU are presently traced by Monte Carlo calculations. About 3 percent of the asteroidal fragments of this type and size that are ejected with velocities of 100 m/sec are perturbed into earth-crossing orbits by the 3:1 Jovian commensurability resonance at 2.5 AU, as well as a secular resonance in the innermost asteroid belt. While the initial earth-crossing orbits of these bodies are concentrated near 1 AU, their steady-state orbital distribution is widely dispersed. Additional objects that may be characterized as inactive comets are inferred from strongly suggestive data.
Wetherill's (1967) algorithm is presently used to compute the mutual collision probabilities and impact velocities of a set of 682 asteroids with large-than-50-km radius representative of a bias-free sample of asteroid orbits. While collision probabilities are nearly independent of eccentricities, a significant decrease is associated with larger inclinations. Collisional velocities grow steeply with orbital eccentricity and inclination, but with curiously small variation across the asteroid belt. Family asteroids are noted to undergo collisions with other family members 2-3 times more often than with nonmembers.
Collisions between asteroids and other forms of solar system debris are discussed, especially relatively high-energy, non-catastrophic collisions, the resulting craters, and the effects they should have on the surfaces and interiors of target bodies. Attention is given to the nature and formation of impact craters, as well as to shock waves and the energy (kinetic, internal) imparted through them, crater scaling, stress wave-surface interactions, impact melt, and the effects of non-escaping ejecta on the surface of the target body (rock, fine-grained regolith, porous media).
Scenarios for mitigation of asteroid comet collisions include the use of explosives to deflect or destroythe projectile. However, as demonstrated by Asphaug et al.( 1998), the outcome of explosive energy transfer to an asteroid or comet (via a bomb or a hypervelocity impact) is extremely sensitive to the pre-existing configuration of fractures and voids.
Collisions by near earth asteroids or the nuclei of comets pose varying levels of threat to man. A relatively small object, approximately 100 meter diameter, which might be found on an impact trajectory with a populated region of the Earth, could potentially be diverted from an Earth impacting trajectory by mass driver rocket systems. For larger bodies, such systems would appear to be beyond current technology. For any size object, nuclear explosions appear to be more efficient, using either the prompt blow-off from neutron radiation, the impulse from ejecta of near-surface explosion for deflection, or as a fragmenting charge. Practical deflections of bodies with diameters of 0.1, 1, and 10 km require interception, years to decades prior to earth encounter, with explosions a few kilotons, megatons, or gigatons, respectively, of equivalent TNT energy to achieve orbital velocity changes or destruction to a level where fragments are dispersed to harmless spatial densities.
BILLIARDS Baseline Instrumented Lithology Lander, Inspector, and Asteroid Redirection Demonstration System Proposed demonstration mission for Billiard-Ball concept Select asteroid pair with natural close approach to minimize cost and complexity Primary Objectives Rendezvous with a small (10m), near Earth (alpha) asteroid Maneuver the alpha asteroid to a collision with a 100m (beta) asteroid Produce a detectable deflection or disruption of the beta asteroid Secondary objectives Contribute knowledge of asteroid composition and characteristics Contribute knowledge of small-body formation Opportunity for international collaboration