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Near-Earth Objects: Targets for Future Human Exploration, Solar System Science, and Planetary Defense

Human exploration of near-Earth objects (NEOs) beginning circa 2025 - 2030 is one of the stated objectives of U.S. National Space Policy. Piloted missions to these bodies would further development of deep space mission systems and technologies, obtain better understanding of the origin and evolution of our Solar System, and support research for asteroid deflection and hazard mitigation strategies. This presentation will discuss some of the physical characteristics of NEOs and review some of the current plans for NEO research and exploration from both a human and robotic mission perspective.

Abell, Paul A.↗

The NEXT-C Power Processing Unit: Lessons Learned from the Design, Build, and Test of the NEXT-C PPU for APL's DART Mission

NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) will be the first-ever planetary defense mission to demonstrate asteroid deflection using kinetic impactor technology. The DART spacecraft will utilize the NASA Evolutionary Xenon Thruster (NEXT), which is a successor to the NSTAR ion propulsion system that successfully propelled NASA’s Deep Space 1 and Dawn spacecraft. In 2015, NASA partnered with Aerojet Rocketdyne and ZIN Technologies on the NEXT-Commercial (NEXT-C) effort to manufacture a Flight-Qualified (TRL 8) power processing unit (PPU). The NEXT-C PPU was based on the heritage gridded ion thruster PPU from NSTAR and NEXT, but with significant improvements in performance and manufacturability. The design goals of the NEXT-C PPU were to achieve the technical performance goals of the PPU in size, mass, and efficiency over a wide range of input voltage and output power. This paper discusses the lessons learned from the design, build, and test of the NEXT-C PPU, and how challenges were overcome to deliver a Flight PPU.

NEXT-C↗

The NEXT-C Power Processing Unit: Lessons Learned from the Design, Build, and Test of the NEXT-C PPU for APL's DART Mission

NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) will be the first-ever planetary defense mission to demonstrate asteroid deflection using kinetic impactor technology. The DART spacecraft will utilize the NASA Evolutionary Xenon Thruster (NEXT), which is a successor to the NSTAR ion propulsion system that successfully propelled NASA’s Deep Space 1 and Dawn spacecraft. In 2015, NASA partnered with Aerojet Rocketdyne and ZIN Technologies on the NEXT-Commercial (NEXT-C) effort to manufacture a Flight-Qualified (TRL 8) power processing unit (PPU). The NEXT-C PPU was based on the heritage gridded ion thruster PPU from NSTAR and NEXT, but with significant improvements in performance and manufacturability. The design goals of the NEXT-C PPU were to achieve the technical performance goals of the PPU in size, mass, and efficiency over a wide range of input voltage and output power. This paper discusses the lessons learned from the design, build, and test of the NEXT-C PPU, and how challenges were overcome to deliver a Flight PPU.

NEXT-C↗

Semi-analytic preliminary design of low-thrust missions

Using generalized logarithmic spirals to approximate low-thrust trajectories, a new strategy for the design of low-thrust gravity-assist transfers has been developed. Each transfer leg is defined by a semi-analytic model, and its solution is equivalent to a hybrid Lambert’s problem. The method is suitable for approximating both flyby and rendezvous transfer legs. A branch and prune algorithm is used to generate a collection of initial guesses for further optimization. The analytic nature of the low-thrust model simplifies the pruning step, since dynamical and operational constraints (like maximum thrust or total v) can be imposed easily. The solutions obtained with the global search algorithm can be post-processed, filtered, and ranked according to various criteria. This is where the versatility of the method resides, because changing the selection criteria does not require a new search. Selected candidates are then optimized further, in order to generate actual low-thrust orbits. Two mission design examples are presented: an asteroid deflection mission using a kinetic impactor, and a rendezvous mission to Jupiter. These examples are used to analyze the convergence of the optimization stage, in particular how far from the optimal solution the initial guesses are.

Park, Ryan S.↗

Deflection Missions for Asteroid 2011 AG5

The recently discovered asteroid 2011 AG5 currently has a 1-in-500 chance of impacting Earth in 2040. In this paper, we discuss the potential of future observations of the asteroid and their effects on the asteroid's orbital uncertainty. Various kinetic impactor mission scenarios, relying on both conventional chemical as well as solar-electric propulsion, are presented for deflecting the course of the asteroid safely away from Earth. The times for the missions range from pre-keyhole passage (pre-2023), and up to five years prior to the 2040 Earth close approach. We also include a brief discussion on terminal guidance, and contingency options for mission planning.

small body↗

A machine-learning framework for the simulation of nuclear deflection of Planet-Killer-Asteroids

Here, as detection capabilities in astronomy have dramatically improved over the last two decades, concerns over Planet-Killer-Asteroids (PKAs) have become widespread, with nuclear weapons being proposed to destroy or deflect asteroids that are on a short-term projected collision course with Earth. Two main mitigation strategies have been proposed: • Case 1: Break up an incoming asteroid into smaller pieces that will disperse widely, resulting in smaller-scale, less detrimental, Earth-impacts or • Case 2: Deflect an incoming asteroid trajectory to avoid collision altogether. While the two strategies are not mutually exclusive, deflection is a safer strategy, ideally by harnessing all of the released energy from a nuclear device to move the asteroid as a rigid body. However, this case may not be always possible, since the strength of the energy release may break up the asteroid. In this work, the dynamical response of a PKA to a series of ultra-high energy impulses, such as those generated by nuclear devices, is formulated. A rapid iterative Discrete Element Method (DEM) method is developed to describe the deflection and potential breakup of the PKA as a function of a material bonding strength parameter within the asteroid and the magnitude of the applied impulse. The use of DEM allows for fragmentation of the PKA and the ability to compute the trajectories and distribution of the resulting debris field. Finally, a machine-learning algorithm is then developed and combined with the DEM approach to optimize the pulsation strategy for maximum possible safety and success.

42 ENGINEERING↗

AIDA: Measuring Asteroid Binary System Parameters and DART-Imparted Deflection Using the AIM Spacecraft

The Asteroid Impact and Deflection Assessment (AIDA) mission concept would demonstrate an asteroid deflection through a high velocity spacecraft impact on the moon of the binary asteroid system Didymos. The NASA DART spacecraft would be launched on an impacting trajectory, while the ESA AIM spacecraft would be orbiting and observing the system before and after the impact. Radio science measurements with AIM provides information on the complex dynamics of the binary system. Combined with the DART experiment, the ability to measure the imparted delta-v has significant implications for how well the proposed AIDA mission would serve as a deflection demonstration. In addition, the impact-induced deflection, cratering, and mass transfer can be interpreted as indicators of surface properties. We provided preliminary analyses of the measurability of the DART impact as function of generic AIM spacecraft proximity operations and knowledge of the Didymos system from radio science techniques.

Bellerose, Julie↗

Closed Loop Terminal Guidance Navigation for a Kinetic Impactor Spacecraft

A kinetic impactor spacecraft is a viable method to deflect an asteroid which poses a threat to the Earth. The technology to perform such a deflection has been demonstrated by the Deep Impact (DI) mission, which successfully collided with comet Tempel 1 in July 2005 using an onboard autonomous navigation system, called AutoNav, for the terminal phase of the mission. In this paper, we evaluate the ability of AutoNav to impact a wide range of scenarios that an deflection mission could encounter, varying parameters such as the approach velocity, phase angle, size of the asteroid, and the determination of spacecraft attitude. Using realistic Monte Carlo simulations, we tabulated the probability of success of the deflection as a function of these parameters, and the highest sensitivity to be due the spacecraft attitude determination mode. In addition, we also specifically analyzed the impact probability for a proposed mission which would send an impactor to the asteroid 1999RQ36. We conclude with some recommendations for future work.

closed loop guidance↗

Terminal Guidance Navigation for an Asteroid Impactor Spacecraft

Near Earth Asteroids could potentially cause a great deal of devastation if one were to impact the Earth. If such an asteroid were found, the next step would be to mitigate the threat by one of several options, the most viable of which is to deflect the asteroids trajectory such that it misses the Earth by hitting it at a very high velocity with a spacecraft. The technology to perform such a deflection has been demonstrated by the Deep Impact (DI) mission, which successfully collided with comet Tempel 1 in July 2005 using an onboard autonomous navigation system, called AutoNav, for the terminal phase of the mission. In this paper, we evaluate the ability of AutoNav to impact a wide range of scenarios that an deflection mission could encounter, varying parameters such as the approach velocity, phase angle, size of the asteroid, and the determination of spacecraft attitude. Using realistic Monte Carlo simulations, we tabulated the probability of success of the deflection as a function of these parameters, and find the highest sensitivity to be due the spacecraft attitude determination mode. We conclude with some recommendations for future work.

autonomous navigation↗

Large-Scale Experimental Planetary Science Meets Planetary Defense: Deorbiting an Asteroidal Satellite

Other than remote-sensing and spacecraft-derived data, the only information that exists regarding the physical and chemical properties of asteroids is that inferred through calculations, numerical simulations, extrapolation of experiments, and meteorite studies. Our understanding of the dynamics of accretion of planetesimals, collisional disruption of asteroids, and the macroscopic, shock-induced modification of the surfaces of such small objects is also, for the most part, founded on similar inferences. While considerable strides have been made in improving the state of asteroid science, too many unknowns remain to assert that we understand the parameters necessary for the more practical problem of deflecting an asteroid or asteroid pair on an Earth-intersecting trajectory. Many of these deficiencies could be reduced or eliminated by intentionally deorbiting an asteroidal satellite and monitoring the resulting collision between it and the primary asteroid, a capability that is well within the limitations of current technology.

Cintala, M. J.↗

Near Earth Object (NEO) Mitigation Options Using Exploration Technologies

This presentation considers the use of new launch vehicles in defense against near-Earth objects, building upon expertise in launch vehicle and spacecraft design, astronomy and planetary science and missile defense. This work also seeks to demonstrate the synergy needed between architectures for human/robotic exploration initiatives and planetary defense. Three different mitigation operations were baselined for this study--nuclear standoff explosion, kinetic interceptor, and solar collector--however, these are not the only viable options. The design and predicted performance of each of these methods is discussed and compared. It is determined that the nuclear interceptor option can deflect NEOs of smaller size (100-500 m) with 2 years or more time before impact, and larger NEOs with 5 or more years warning; kinetic interceptors may be effective for deflection of asteroids up to 300-400 m but require 8-10 years warning time; and, solar collectors may be able to deflect NEOs up to 1 km if issues pertaining to long operation can be overcome. Ares I and Ares V vehicles show sufficient performance to enable the development of a near-term categorization and mitigation architecture.

Adams, Robert B.↗

BILLIARDS: A Demonstration Mission for Hundred-Meter Class Near Earth Asteroid Disruption

Currently, no planetary defense demonstration mission has ever been flown. While Nuclear Explosive Devices (NEDs) have significantly more energy than a kinetic impactor launched directly from Earth, they present safety and political complications, and therefore may only be used when absolutely necessary. The Baseline Instrumented Lithology Lander, Inspector, and Asteroid Redirection Demonstration System (BILLIARDS) is a demonstration mission for planetary defense, which is capable of delivering comparable energy to the lower range of NED capabilities in the form of a safer kinetic impactor. A small asteroid (<10m) is captured by a spacecraft, which greatly increases the mass available as a kinetic impactor, without the need to bring all of the mass out of Earth's gravity well. The small asteroid is then deflected onto a collision course with a larger (approx. 100m) asteroid. This collision will deflect or disrupt the larger asteroid. To reduce the cost and complexity, an asteroid pair which has a natural close approach is selected.

Planetary Defense↗

Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) Mission

NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission was humanity’s first attempt to move a celestial body, demonstrating the capability to perform a kinetic impact on a planetary defense–relevant sized asteroid. DART was part of the international collaboration known as the Asteroid Impact & Deflection Assessment (AIDA), involving NASA, the European Space Agency (ESA), the Agenzia Spaziale Italiana (ASI), and scientists around the world. DART was a key step to demonstrating preparedness to respond to planetary defense scenarios, and it provides a crucial data point for likely outcomes. Near-Earth objects (NEOs) greater than 140 m in size are of particular interest to planetary defense because they have the potential to cause significant damage if they were to impact Earth, and also because they are difficult to detect, with less than 50% of the predicted population discovered as of 2022 (National Academies Press, 2022). With an appropriately sized spacecraft and enough warning (typically many years to decades), a kinetic impact can slightly alter the orbit of an asteroid in a way that, over time, prevents the asteroid from colliding with Earth in the future. DART’s target was Dimorphos, the smaller (~150-m-diameter) member of the binary asteroid system (65803) Didymos, which is a near-Earth, potentially hazardous, and well-characterized asteroid system. By simply observing changes to the system after impact and comparing them with a pre-impact reference, it was possible to use ground-based telescopes to observe the deflection in the orbit of Dimorphos after impact. Developed and operated by the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (APL), the mission entered formulation in 2015 after multiple years of concept development. The project was administered according to NPR 7120.5, with technical oversight and funding through the Planetary Missions Program Office (PMPO) at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and overall support as a directed mission from NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO). The DART spacecraft hosted a singular payload, the Didymos Reconnaissance and Asteroid Camera for Optical navigation (DRACO), and a deployable CubeSat contributed by ASI named the Light Italian CubeSat for Imaging of Asteroids (LICIACube). On 11 September 2022, DART deployed LICIACube, which subsequently followed the DART spacecraft at a safe distance and observed the immediate aftermath of the DART impact. DART was designed to autonomously detect, navigate to, and impact Dimorphos. This autonomous design was chosen to maximize the probability of impact, since commanding from the ground could result in course corrections arriving too late. On the day of impact, 26 September 2022, the spacecraft’s autonomous systems successfully detected and locked on to Dimorphos, impacting its surface within 2 m of the center of the illuminated figure (Jensenius et al., 2023). No human intervention was required for a successful impact, demonstrating that humanity possesses the technology to perform a kinetic impact. Within 2 weeks of impact, it was clear that the orbit of Dimorphos had been significantly altered. On 11 October 2022, NASA Administrator Bill Nelson announced that the new orbital period of Dimorphos was shortened by approximately 32 ± 2 min, from 11 h and 55 min before impact to 11 h and 23 min after impact. With additional observations over the following months, the accuracy of this measurement improved to a –33.24 min ± 1.4 s orbital period change (Naidu et al., 2023; Scheirich et al., 2023), and Beta (β), the momentum transfer enhancement parameter, was reported to be 3.6 (Cheng et al., 2023). Subsequent studies examined the details of DART’s impact site, modeled the impact event, investigated the ejecta produced, and analyzed the dynamics of the Didymos system. These combined results clearly demonstrate that the project met all Level 1 mission requirements.

asteroid↗

The Impact Imperative: A Space Infrastructure Enabling a Multi-Tiered Earth Defense

Impacting at hypervelocity, an asteroid struck the Earth approximately 65 million years ago in the Yucatan Peninsula a m . This triggered the extinction of almost 70% of the species of life on Earth including the dinosaurs. Other impacts prior to this one have caused even greater extinctions. Preventing collisions with the Earth by hypervelocity asteroids, meteoroids, and comets is the most important immediate space challenge facing human civilization. This is the Impact Imperative. We now believe that while there are about 2000 earth orbit crossing rocks greater than 1 kilometer in diameter, there may be as many as 200,000 or more objects in the 100 m size range. Can anything be done about this fundamental existence question facing our civilization? The answer is a resounding yes! By using an intelligent combination of Earth and space based sensors coupled with an infrastructure of high-energy laser stations and other secondary mitigation options, we can deflect inbound asteroids, meteoroids, and comets and prevent them &om striking the Earth. This can be accomplished by irradiating the surface of an inbound rock with sufficiently intense pulses so that ablation occurs. This ablation acts as a small rocket incrementally changing the shape of the rock's orbit around the Sun. One-kilometer size rocks can be moved sufficiently in about a month while smaller rocks may be moved in a shorter time span. We recommend that space objectives be immediately reprioritized to start us moving quickly towards an infrastructure that will support a multiple option defense capability. Planning and development for a lunar laser facility should be initiated immediately in parallel with other options. All mitigation options are greatly enhanced by robust early warning, detection, and tracking resources to find objects sufficiently prior to Earth orbit passage in time to allow significant intervention. Infrastructure options should include ground, LEO, GEO, Lunar, and libration point laser and sensor stations for providing early warning, tracking, and deflection. Other options should include space interceptors that will carry both laser and nuclear ablators for close range work. Response options must be developed to deal with the consequences of an impact should we move too slowly.

Campbell, Jonathan W.↗

Laser Prevention of Earth Impact Disasters

We now believe that while there are about 2000 earth orbit crossing rocks greater than 1 kilometer in diameter, there may be as many as 100,000 or more objects in the 100m size range. Can anything be done about this fundamental existence question facing us? The answer is a resounding yes! We have the technology to prevent collisions. By using an intelligent combination of Earth and space based sensors coupled with an infrastructure of high-energy laser stations and other secondary mitigation options, we can deflect inbound asteroids, meteoroids, and comets and prevent them from striking the Earth. This can be accomplished by irradiating the surface of an inbound rock with sufficiently intense pulses so that ablation occurs. This ablation acts as a small rocket incrementally changing the shape of the rock's orbit around the Sun. One-kilometer size rocks can be moved sufficiently in a month while smaller rocks may be moved in a shorter time span.We recommend that the World's space objectives be immediately reprioritized to start us moving quickly towards a multiple option defense capability. While lasers should be the primary approach, all mitigation options depend on robust early warning, detection, and tracking resources to find objects sufficiently prior to Earth orbit passage in time to allow mitigation. Infrastructure options should include ground, LEO, GEO, Lunar, and libration point laser and sensor stations for providing early warning, tracking, and deflection. Other options should include space interceptors that will carry both laser and nuclear ablators for close range work. Response options must be developed to deal with the consequences of an impact should we move too slowly.

Campbell, J.↗