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Physics-Guided Deep Learning for Complex System Health Management and Decision Making

The landscape of complex engineered systems is rapidly evolving, from smart manufacturing facilities to next-generation transportation vehicles. As these systems become increasingly sophisticated and interconnected, the need for advanced health management systems grows ever more critical. These systems must go beyond simple monitoring, actively predicting potential failures before they occur. This paradigm shift from fixed maintenance schedules to condition-based predictions is key to optimizing system performance, enhancing safety, and paving the way for autonomous decision-making across various industries. Whether in industrial processes, energy systems, or advanced transportation, the ability to anticipate and prevent failures is becoming a cornerstone of operational excellence. To accurately predict the future health of any complex system, knowledge of its current health state and future operational conditions is essential. Recent advancements in data-driven algorithms have generated growing interest in artificial intelligence for industrial applications. However, the limitations of pure data-driven methods, particularly in industries where data acquisition is costly and limited, have become apparent. This has led to a focus on blending physics with data-driven algorithms, mitigating the drawbacks of both approaches while emphasizing their respective advantages. This research proposes a novel framework for integrating physics-based performance models with deep learning algorithms for the prognostics of complex safety-critical systems. In this approach, physics-based models serve as a blueprint, capturing fundamental system behaviors, while deep learning algorithms, leveraging real-world sensor data, fill in gaps and identify subtle patterns indicative of potential problems. This hybrid methodology, utilizing techniques such as Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs), offers a powerful solution for predicting system health. By fusing domain knowledge with data-driven insights, this approach promises more accurate, adaptable, and reliable models for health prediction. The resulting framework is versatile, applicable across various sectors including aerospace, manufacturing, and energy systems, ultimately contributing to safer, more efficient operations in our increasingly complex technological landscape.

Diagnostics

Trajectory Engineering with Modular Patched Conics for Entry Systems and TPS (TEMPEST)

Brief Presenter Biography (35 word limit): Bohdan Wesely is an Aerospace Engineer in the Entry Systems and Technology Division at Ames. He has worked on a variety of projects for NASA including integrated TPS (thermal protection system) flight hardware deliveries and testing services for commercial partners. Introduction: TEMPEST is a new trajectory analysis framework that is designed to fill the gap between dedicated flight mechanics tools and aerothermal and TPS sizing tools. The project started as an SJSU master’s thesis and has since evolved into a general conceptual design tool capable of studying a wide variety of entry problems. Development is ongoing in the Entry Systems and Technology Division at NASA ARC. Why TEMPEST: Space missions involving entry into a planetary atmosphere involve a series of unique requirements across multiple disciplines. Whether it is traditional entry descent and landing (EDL), or aerocapture, the vehicle must navigate to its target landing location or orbit state, and the TPS must protect the payload during entry. The design process typically involves iterative handoffs between various flight mechanics, flow solver, and material response level tools. During the early conceptual phase, a wide variety of feasible trajectories are simulated in a Monte Carlo scenario which broadly satisfy the mission or landing requirements. Next, computational fluid dynamics (CFD), direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC), and other flow solver analyses are performed at various key trajectory points to generate an aero-database, heating and TPS design requirements also emerge at this stage. At this point, with updated aerodynamics from the various flow solvers, trajectories can be re-run, this in turn can change the required freestream conditions for the CFD tools, and as a project progresses, these analyses converge, and uncertainty is reduced. However, there is always a “hand-off” occurring between two inherently coupled phenomena. Analysis Description: One of the goals with TEMPEST is to use a variety of first principles estimation methods coupled with an atmosphere model to predict vehicle aerothermodynamics across the entire flight regime while propagating a 3 or 6 degree of freedom (DoF) trajectory. Aerodynamics methods include modified Newtonian, Maxwell and Cercignani- Lampis-Lord (CLL) for continuum, transitional, and free molecular flow regimes. Aerothermodynamics include boundary layer and reference enthalpy methods, and Mutation++ for non-equilibrium chemistry modeling. TEMPEST is also capable of stitching multiple trajectory segments together to study mission scenarios like multi-pass aerocapture and aero-gravity assists. Most of the program is implemented in MATLAB using modern system objects, it relies on several C++ shared libraries for supporting tools like Gmsh, the Global Reference Atmospheric Model (GRAM), and Mutation++. The various first principles aerothermal estimation methods are discretized across either a structured axisymmetric panel mesh or an unstructured tri-mesh generated from an open-source tool such as Gmsh, this allows solutions on the same mesh to be compared across tools such as CB-Aero. CFD Coupling. A physics-aware, gaussian process CFD anchoring scheme is proposed to adjust the various first principles methods as a CFD database is populated. One goal for this anchoring module is to inform the project where CFD should be run. Full knowledge of the entire trajectory, atmosphere, and aerothermodynamics allows for easier identification of high sensitivity areas and uncertainty quantification. While the first principles effects are well known and proven accurate in existing tools such as CB- Aero and Cart3D, a physics aware CFD anchoring scheme increases tool credibility across a project lifecycle. Material Response Modeling. Correct TPS sizing is critical for optimizing mass for science payloads and ensuring mission success. The process typically involves a thermal analysis along the trajectory with surface heating environments as a boundary condition. Several design constraints are maximum bondline temperature and maximum recession with various margining techniques. The material response tool FIAT, developed out of NASA Ames, is currently being integrated into the TEMPEST environment. TPS recession, shape change, mass loss, and mass property alteration are all factors that can perturb an entry trajectory. For missions like Mars 2020, recession was minimal and was safely handled separately as a post process. For missions such as Jupiter Galileo with a high TPS mass fraction or asteroid entries, recession plays a major role. The proposed fully coupled scheme is to use an epoch-based approach where the trajectory integration is halted after a recession threshold, the energy balance and FIAT are solved at each panel, the mesh, aerodynamics, and mass properties are updated, and the trajectory continues. Several computational tradeoffs have been made during the development of TEMPEST to limit the cost of a single trajectory and preserve its utility as a conceptual, rapid iteration tool. Conclusion: Development of TEMPEST is ongoing and the project is still in its infancy. This talk aims to showcase its unique capabilities to support future NASA entry systems missions.

Bohdan O Wesely

Non-Metallic Materials

Nonmetallic materials development - cryogenic insulation, adhesives research, and membrane diffusion theory

Materials Science

Battery Systems for X-38 Crew Return Vehicle (CRV) and Deorbit Propulsion Stage (DPS)

A 28V 32 Ah cell Li/MnO2 and a 28V NiMH battery systems for the Deorbit Propulsion Stage (DPS) and the X-38 Crew Return Vehicle (CRV) are developed in Friwo-Silforkraft, Germany with the following objectives and approach: Provide safe battery designs for lowest volume and cost, and within schedule; Take advantage of less complex requests for V201 vs OPS CRV to simplify design and reduce cost; Use only existing commercial cell designs as building blocks for larger battery; Derive battery designs from the ASTRO-SPAS design which is the largest lithium battery design with Shuttle flight experience; Place maximum amount of battery energy on DPS; DPS battery is non rechargeable; and CRV batteries are rechargeable. This paper contains the following sections: a brief introduction on CRV requirements, CRV advantages over Soyuz, and X-38 programs; Battery objectives and approach; Battery requirements and groundrules (performance, on-orbit operation, etc); Design trades, solutions, redundancy plan, and margins; Envelope, size, and mass; Interfaces (structural, electrical & thermal); and Deviation from OPS CRV.

Darcy, Eric

Aerodynamic Design of Axial Flow Compressors

An overview of 'Aerodynamic systems design of axial flow compressors' is presented. Numerous chapters cover topics such as compressor design, potential and viscous flow in two dimensional cascades, compressor stall and blade vibration, and compressor flow theory. Theoretical aspects of flow are also covered. This work is based substantially on a three-volume Confidential Research Memorandum f h t issued by the National Advisory Committee for Aeronautics in 1956 and declassified in .1958 for release to the general public. The material, which was of a fundamental character, has been updated for the present edition in the light of subsequent developments in the field and has been carefully reexamined for current validity by members of the staff of the NASA Lewis Research Center, Cleveland, Ohio. It is now published for the first time in a single volume to meet continuing demand for the information and to make it readily available in convenient form to the engineering community both within and outside the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

Axial flow compressor

Core-Centering of Compound Drops in Capillary Oscillations: Observations on USML-1 Experiments in Space

Using the existing inviscid theories, an attempt is made to explain the centering of the oscillating liquid shell. Experiments on liquid shells and liquid-core compound drops were conducted using acoustic levitation, in a low-gravity environment during a Space Shuttle flight. It was observed that their inner and outer interfaces became concentric when excited into capillary oscillations. Using the existing inviscid theories, and attempt is made to explain the centering of the oscillating liquid shell. It is concluded that viscosity needs to be considered in order to provide a realistic description of the centering process.

T G Wang

Thermochemically-Closed Sonic-Flow Inversion for Enthalpy and Temperature in Multispecies Arc-Jet Flows

A thermochemically-closed sonic-flow inversion framework (TSIF) is developed to infer bulk enthalpy and total temperature upstream of a choked nozzle in arc-jet flows. The formulation recasts a pressure-rise total enthalpy quantification technique as an inverse problem in characteristic-velocity c * space using measured mass flow rate, upstream total pressure, gas composition, and nozzle throat geometry as inputs. Unlike calorimetric energy-balance approaches or optical diagnostics, the method relies primarily on routinely measured facility quantities combined with explicit thermochemical closure. Thermochemical states are obtained using NASA’s open-source Chemical Equilibrium with Applications (CEA) code, enabling construction of a chemistry-consistent relation between characteristic velocity, total enthalpy, and total temperature under equilibrium or frozen assumptions. A discharge coefficient is self-calibrated using cold-flow (arc-off) operation data and applied to hot-flow (arc-on) measurements, enabling upstream losses to be accounted for without empirical correlations. The framework is applied to air, N 2 , and CO 2 –N 2 arc-jet flows and demonstrates expected trends for the inferred thermochemical states as function of arc power, specific energy input, mass-flow, heater configuration, and test gas. In the air limit, under equilibrium assumptions, the method recovers the classical high-enthalpy asymptotic correlation of Winovich with a mean residual of 4.4%, demonstrating compatibility with established sonic-flow scaling, while extending applicability to arbitrary multi-species mixtures and non-equilibrium chemistry. The framework provides a mixture-flexible methodology for determining bulk thermochemical states in modern arc-jet environments using routine facility pressure, mass-flow, gas-composition, and nozzle-geometry information together with a cold-flow calibration.

stagnation heat flux

Thermochemically-Closed Sonic-Flow Inversion for Enthalpy and Temperature in Multispecies Arc-Jet Flows

A thermochemically-closed sonic-flow inversion framework (TSIF) is developed to infer bulk enthalpy and total temperature upstream of a choked nozzle in arc-jet flows. The formulation recasts a pressure-rise total enthalpy quantification technique as an inverse problem in characteristic-velocity c * space using measured mass flow rate, upstream total pressure, gas composition, and nozzle throat geometry as inputs. Unlike calorimetric energy-balance approaches or optical diagnostics, the method relies primarily on routinely measured facility quantities combined with explicit thermochemical closure. Thermochemical states are obtained using NASA’s open-source Chemical Equilibrium with Applications (CEA) code, enabling construction of a chemistry-consistent relation between characteristic velocity, total enthalpy, and total temperature under equilibrium or frozen assumptions. A discharge coefficient is self-calibrated using cold-flow (arc-off) operation data and applied to hot-flow (arc-on) measurements, enabling upstream losses to be accounted for without empirical correlations. The framework is applied to air, N 2 , and CO 2 –N 2 arc-jet flows and demonstrates expected trends for the inferred thermochemical states as function of arc power, specific energy input, mass-flow, heater configuration, and test gas. In the air limit, under equilibrium assumptions, the method recovers the classical high-enthalpy asymptotic correlation of Winovich with a mean residual of 4.4%, demonstrating compatibility with established sonic-flow scaling, while extending applicability to arbitrary multi-species mixtures and non-equilibrium chemistry. The framework provides a mixture-flexible methodology for determining bulk thermochemical states in modern arc-jet environments using routine facility pressure, mass-flow, gas-composition, and nozzle-geometry information together with a cold-flow calibration.

inviscid theory

An ESR study of the UV degradation of FEP

Spacecraft in low earth orbit are subjected to significant levels of high energy radiation, including ultraviolet (UV) and visible ultraviolet (VUV) wavelengths. The effects of UV radiation are enhanced over those at the surface of the earth, where the only incident wavelengths are greater than 290 nm. In low earth orbit the incident UV wavelengths extend below 290 nm into the VUV region, where the Lyman alpha-emissions of atomic hydrogen occur at 121 nm. In addition to electromagnetic radiation, in low earth orbit polymer materials may also be subjected to atomic oxygen particle radiation, which will result in direct oxidation of the polymer.

G. A. George

Modeling a Li/SOCl2 battery for design purposes

A generalized code applicable to many different electrochemical systems and geometric designs is discussed. The code is to be set up so that physical property data such as thermal conductivity, viscosity, density, and configuration (e.g. physical dimensions) are the input data. Thus, by changing these parameters many different battery configurations can be handled. The outputs, as a function of time and space, are voltage, current, temperature, pressure, velocity, and species concentration.

Ernst, D. W.

Risks of Depress as a Fire Suppression Technique in Spacecraft

Spacecraft are designed to prevent fires through careful material selection and configuration control combined with electrical design controls and isolation of ignition sources. Despite these best efforts, fire risk still exists due to the potential for configuration changes with the introduction of crew and the potential for a ‘failure of imagination’ by designers in anticipating all fuel and ignition sources. Therefore, fire suppression is a critical capability for any crewed spacecraft as a last resort for crew survival. Many spacecraft suppression methods have relied on fire suppressants such as compressed carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and water. A proposed alternative is depressurization of the cabin as a method to extinguish a fire. Limited testing was conducted during Skylab and showed that depress could result in stirring the air flow and aggravating a fire before extinguishing. However, limited information was available on how the test was conducted. To better characterize the approach, testing was conducted at NASA’s White Sands Test Facility to evaluate the effect of depressurization on material extinguishment. The results showed that depressurization does not provide a safe and effective fire suppression capability. The testing approach, results, and conclusions are described and discussed.

Toni Griego

Next-Generation Hard X-ray Missions: SuperHERO and HEROIX

High-energy X-ray observations have transformed our understanding of astrophysical systems where non-thermal processes dominate, from shock-accelerated particles in supernova remnants to relativistic jets and hot coronae in active galactic nuclei. NuSTAR’s pioneering focusing images of the hard X-ray sky have demonstrated the immense scientific potential of this band, while also highlighting how limited angular resolution constrains our ability to fully characterize complex physical processes in faint extended sources and resolving faint sources in crowded sky regions. In this presentation, I will discuss a pathway to overcome these challenges through NASA Marshall Space Flight Center’s replicated NiCo full-shell X-ray mirror technology. Specifically, I will discuss the SuperHERO hard X-ray telescope to achieve better than 10-arcsecond half-power diameter (HPD) angular resolution on a balloon flight observing the Crab Nebula, and the High EneRgy Observatory for Imaging X-rays (HEROIX) Medium-Class Mission concept to achieve an integrated effective area of 570 cm2 at 30 keV with 5 arcsec HPD angular resolution.

AGN

Analysis of Surface and Bulk Behavior in Ni-Pd Alloys

The most salient features of the surface structure and bulk behavior of Ni-Pd alloys have been studied using the BFS method for alloys. Large-scale atomistic simulations were performed to investigate surface segregation profiles as a function of temperature, crystal face, and composition. Pd enrichment of the first layer was observed in (111) and (100) surfaces, and enrichment of the top two layers occurred for (110) surfaces. In all cases, the segregation profile shows alternate planes enriched and depleted in Pd. In addition, the phase structure of bulk Ni-Pd alloys as a function of temperature and composition was studied. A weak ordering tendency was observed at low temperatures, which helps explain the compositional oscillations in the segregation profiles. Finally, based on atom-by-atom static energy calculations, a comprehensive explanation for the observed surface and bulk features will be presented in terms of competing chemical and strain energy effects.

Ordering

Thin-Film Embedded Sensors for Battery Health Monitoring

Hybrid or all-electric aircraft are being developed as the next generation of aircraft to both allow new forms of aviation and decrease environmental impact. Since these types of aircraft are based on high-capacity battery technology, safe operation of these batteries becomes increasingly important. In particular, the potential for battery failure due to uncontrolled chemical reactions resulting in thermal runaway, catastrophic failure, and battery fires must be addressed in order for such battery technology to have the level of safety needed for standard aviation implementation. Efforts to ensure battery safety often involve engineering solutions that seek to contain rather than prevent such events by early detection. Such approaches increase the system weight and decrease the power per unit mass provided by the battery system. Existing methods for measuring battery parameters to determine the battery state-of-health are limited. These methods include electrical measurements of the cell current and/or voltage output as well as temperature measurements taken externally on the cell surface. Such external temperature measurements are limited in their ability to provide early warning of impending battery failure. In response, an effort to develop sensors operating internal to battery for health monitoring has been ongoing in the NASA Sensor-based Prognostics to Avoid Runaway Reactions & Catastrophic Ignition (SPARRCI) project. The basic approach associated with this sensor work is the deposition of thin film sensors on the battery separator located between the anode and cathode of the battery. These thin film sensors are then monitored to determine changes in battery parameters and health. Microfabrication techniques are employed to minimize the overall impact of the sensors on battery operation through the implementation of sensors with minimal size, weight, and power consumption. The thickness of the films, which are fabricated through physical vapor deposition (sputtering), are on the order of thousands of angstroms and can have minimal surface area. Thin film sensors for system health management have been implemented for a many decades on complex components for aerospace applications. However, the application of thin films of this type on a battery separator for internal battery monitoring applications has not previously been demonstrated to our knowledge. This paper describes the development of sensors for the internal battery monitoring through the use of thin film sensor technology. Thin metal films were successfully deposited on a battery separator polymer material with good adherence and electrical continuity. Multiple types of sensors have been deposited, as well as lead connections from the sensor to the edge of the separator material. The ability of these thin film sensors immersed in electrolyte to perform multiple types of battery parameter measurements has been demonstrated. For example, a multiparameter sensor system measured multiple properties simultaneously inside of a pouch cell over a wide temperature range. Further, real time measurement of interior temperature changes in a battery pouch cell with an integrated interior temperature sensor was demonstrated. These changes include detecting a fault in the battery (shorting) in situ with rapid response time (less than a minute) corresponding to a more limited response by a temperature sensor mounted externally. Other aspects of monitoring battery health were also explored, such as real-time measurement of simulated dendrite growth/metal deposition by sensor on separator material demonstrated. Future efforts will include improvements in the durability of the sensor structure to allow introduction of the approach into standard battery fabrication techniques. Overall, this work is a step forward in providing a method to prevent catastrophic battery failures and provide a foundation for safer, lighter, and higher energy batteries for the electric aircraft industry.

thin film battery health

List of Commercial and Advanced Developmental Niobium-Based Alloys of the Space Age

This report compiles a list of commercial and developmental niobium-based alloys developed during the Space Age (late 1950s through mid-1970s) for extreme-temperature applications, including rocket engine thrust chambers, hypersonic re-entry thermal protection systems, and space fission reactor loops. Niobium (Nb) was widely pursued because it provided the lowest density (~8.6 g/cc) among the primary refractory metals, a high melting temperature (~2470°C), exceptional low-temperature ductility, good formability, and compatibility with liquid alkali metals. An evaluation of physical metallurgy mechanisms, focusing on solid-solution strengthening via heavy refractory solutes (W, Mo, Ta), dual-purpose reactive solutes (Hf, Zr, Ti), and dispersion strengthening using carbides, nitrides, and oxides is presented. Additionally, the report compares Western and Soviet Union metallurgical approaches, explaining how supply chain factors and manufacturing infrastructure influenced element selection, interstitial chemistry, and alloy identification/naming conventions. Cataloging these historical alloy chemical compositions serves as a foundational reference for modern alloy additive manufacturing, thermodynamic CALPHAD modeling, and machine-learning discovery pipelines for next-generation extreme-environment niobium-based alloys.

Physical Metallurgy

A Machine Learning Framework for Error Compensation in Radiative Transfer Calculations

Radiative heat transfer influences the amount of heat flux transferred to the surface of the hypersonic vehicle, which is essential to evaluate the performance of thermal protection systems. The radiative heat flux is found to be computationally prohibitive while accounting for the variation in spatial, angular, and spectral domains. A new methodology has been recently developed to alleviate the cost of computation in the spectral domain by constructing flow-agnostic reduced-order models (ROMs). The developed spectral ROM databases provide grouping strategies that account for non-equilibrium absorption and emission as well as interaction between disparate species due to spectral overlap in associated radiative processes. However, the developed ROMs need to be optimized for a specific combination of interacting gas species and would need to re-calibrated in case individual species are added/omitted. In this work, we use various machine learning (ML) techniques to approximate the radiative intensities determined by a ROM optimized for a specific gas mixture. The ML model relies on the ROM databases developed for a single species which ignores any spectral overlap. Thus, radiation evaluation starts with a simple summation of radiative intensities predicted using these non-calibrated ROMs for the contributing species. The ML framework then provides a correction to account for the interplay in the frequency, i.e., emission of photons by one species and absorption by another, and yields mixture-specific radiation fields. Once trained on the individual ROM databases, the ML framework offers instantaneous corrections that serves as a time/cost effective alternative to the optimization of ROMs for a specific gas mixture. The ML framework is trained on both the high fidelity and ROM evaluated line of sight (LOS) data from Orion, Stardust, and FIRE II cases to obtain a general purpose correction model for earth re-entry scenarios when radiation contributions from both atomic nitrogen and atomic oxygen are considered. A geometric length scale parameter is used in the training process to account for errors introduced in the ROM databases as a consequence of high optical thickness. The efficacy of the ML framework is underscored through extensive analysis of train and test errors with respect to all the re-entry scenarios. The applicability of such an ML framework was further corroborated by embedding it in a state-of-the-art US3D - NERO system for determining the radiative heat flux transferred to the hypersonic vehicle surface.

Radiation

Recommended Practices in Laser-Induced Fluorescence (LIF) Diagnostics for Electric Propulsion

Laser-induced fluorescence (LIF) spectroscopy uses Doppler-shifted laser photons to excite a bound electron transition in an atom or ion, with subsequent fluorescence emission detected in order to measure the local velocity distribution function (VDF) and/or particle density. Due to its non-invasive nature, high spatial resolution, and acceptable difficulty of implementation, LIF has become a favored diagnostic for electric propulsion (EP) plasmas, particularly in the study of Hall thrusters. This paper presents recommended best practices for LIF measurements in electric thrusters, drawn from over three decades of implementation heritage in the EP community. Focusing on both single-photon LIF (typically used to measure VDFs) and two-photon LIF (TALIF, typically used to determine densities), the paper covers selection of atomic transitions to target, experimental setups, and interpretation of data. A number of special topics and advanced applications are discussed, including uncertainty analysis, techniques for high-speed measurements, and applications to a variety of propellants.

plasma plume

Thermal Neutral Format Based on the Step Technology

The exchange of models is one of the most serious problems currently encountered in the practice of spacecraft thermal analysis. Essentially, the problem originates in the diversity of computing environments that are used across different sites, and the consequent proliferation of native tool formats. Furthermore, increasing pressure to reduce the development's life cycle time has originated a growing interest in the so-called spacecraft concurrent engineering. In this context, the realization of the interdependencies between different disciplines and the proper communication between them become critical issues. The use of a neutral format represents a step forward in addressing these problems. Such a means of communication is adopted by consensus. A neutral format is not directly tied to any specific tool and it is kept under stringent change control. Currently, most of the groups promoting exchange formats are contributing with their experience to STEP, the Standard for Exchange of Product Model Data, which is being developed under the auspices of the International Standards Organization (ISO 10303). This paper presents the different efforts made in Europe to provide the spacecraft thermal analysis community with a Thermal Neutral Format (TNF) based on STEP. Following an introduction with some background information, the paper presents the characteristics of the STEP standard. Later, the first efforts to produce a STEP Spacecraft Thermal Application Protocol are described. Finally, the paper presents the currently harmonized European activities that follow up and extend earlier work on the area.

P Planas Almazan