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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3

ChemPren: a new and economical technology for conversion of waste plastics to light olefins

With the ever-increasing demand for plastics, sustainable recycling methods are key necessities. Here, the current plastics industry can manage to recycle only 10% of the 400 million metric tons of plastic produced globally. Waste plastics, in the current infrastructure, land up mostly in landfills. Although a lot of research efforts have been spent on processing and recycling co-mingled mixed plastics, energy-efficient sustainable and scalable routes for plastic upcycling are still lacking. Catalytic valorization of waste plastic feedstock is one of the potential scalable routes for plastic upcycling. Silica-alumina based materials, and zeolites have shown a lot of promise. A major interest lies in restricting catalyst deactivation, and refining product selectivity and yield for such catalytic processes. This article highlights ChemPren technology as a clean energy solution to waste plastic recycling. Co-mingled, mixed plastic feedstock along with spray dried, attrition resistant, ZSM-5 containing catalysts is preprocessed with an extruder to form optimally sized particles and fed into a fluidized bed reactor for short contact times to produce selectively and in high yields ethylenes, propylenes and butylenes. This techno-economic perspective indicates that the ChemPren technology can produce propylene at $\$$0.16 per lb, whereas the current selling price of virgin propylene is $0.54 per lb. This technology can serve as a platform for mixed plastic upcycling, with more advancements necessary in the form of robust and resilient catalysts and reactor operation strategies for tuning product selectivity.

25 - ENERGY STORAGE↗

A comparison of smartphone and infrasound microphone data from a fuel air explosive and a high explosive

For prompt detection of large (>1 kt) above-ground explosions, infrasound microphone networks and arrays are deployed at surveyed locations across the world. Denser regional and local networks are deployed for smaller explosions, however, they are limited in number and are often deployed temporarily for experiments. With the expanded interest in smaller yield explosions targeted at vulnerable areas such as population centers and key infrastructures, the need for more dense microphone networks has increased. An “attritable” (affordable, reusable, and replaceable) and flexible alternative can be provided by smartphone networks. Explosion signals from a fuel air explosive (thermobaric bomb) and a high explosive with trinitrotoluene equivalent yields of 6.35 and 3.63 kg, respectively, were captured on both an infrasound microphone and a network of smartphones. The resulting waveforms were compared in time, frequency, and time-frequency domains. The acoustic waveforms collected on smartphones produced a filtered explosion pulse due to the smartphone's diminishing frequency response at infrasound frequencies (<20 Hz) and was found difficult to be used with explosion characterization methods utilizing waveform features (peak overpressure, impulse, etc.). However, the similarities in time frequency representations and additional sensor inputs are promising for other explosion signal identification and analysis. As an example, a method utilizing the relative acoustic amplitudes for source localization using the smartphone sensor network is presented.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Characterization of textile-grade carbon fiber polypropylene composites

In this work, we consider low-cost carbon fiber produced with a textile-grade precursor. The objective of the study is to investigate textile-grade carbon-fiber-reinforced-polypropylene composites (TCF-PP) from compounded pellets for mechanical and thermal characterization. Four sets of pellets with 1%, 5%, 10%, and 15% reinforcement were manufactured using textile-grade carbon fiber (TCF) and polypropylene (PP) by twin-screw compounding. The addition of TCFs through gravimetric feeder directly in the extruder resulted in lower fiber content; however, side feeder has shown good potential. The pellets were further processed in extrusion compression molding to manufacture plaques. An increase in fiber loading has a negligible effect on fiber attrition as fiber length distribution variation between 1% and 15% reinforced pellets was very small. The addition of TCFs in PP showed a significant improvement in mechanical properties. The tensile strength and modulus of the composite were 26% and 161%, respectively, improved by the addition of 10 wt% TCF. Similar results were observed in the flexure test. However, the impact properties were reduced by 25.54% by the addition of 15% TCF.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Multi-process tooling for discontinuous carbon and hybrid glass fiber thermoplastics

Expensive tooling often constraints the use of composites in the design and development of automotive parts. While there is significant confidence and knowledge in sheet and bulk metals, composite processes are less understood in mass production environment. The processes used to produce composites and resulting properties are influenced by fiber length attrition, resin to fiber ratio, process waste etc. Tool designs are determined very early in the engineering process. It is cost prohibitive to build additional tools, in the event it becomes obvious a better processing method and material would be beneficial, the original decision is not easily changed. In the present work we recognize the bottleneck of tooling costs and provide an approach of multi-process tooling. The innovation of this work is the design and demonstration of a single tool for different processes namely injection, injection-compression and extrusion-compression. The materials used in this study were long and short fiber thermoplastics (LFTs and SFTs). The resulting structure-property relationships have been reported for the materials and processing methods with a battery tray (BT) tool.

Vaidya, Uday↗

Standard experimental paradigm designs and data exclusion practices in cognitive psychology can inadvertently introduce systematic “shadow” biases in participant samples

Abstract Standard cognitive psychology research practices can introduce inadvertent sampling biases that reduce the reliability and generalizability of the findings. Researchers commonly acknowledge and understand that any given study sample is not perfectly generalizable, especially when implementing typical experimental constraints (e.g., limiting recruitment to specific age ranges or to individuals with normal color vision). However, less obvious systematic sampling constraints, referred to here as “shadow” biases, can be unintentionally introduced and can easily go unnoticed. For example, many standard cognitive psychology study designs involve lengthy and tedious experiments with simple, repetitive stimuli. Such testing environments may 1) be aversive to some would-be participants (e.g., those high in certain neurodivergent symptoms) who may self-select not to enroll in such studies, or 2) contribute to participant attrition, both of which reduce the sample’s representativeness. Likewise, standard performance-based data exclusion efforts (e.g., minimum accuracy or response time) or attention checks can systematically remove data from participants from subsets of the population (e.g., those low in conscientiousness). This commentary focuses on the theoretical and practical issues behind these non-obvious and often unacknowledged “shadow” biases, offers a simple illustration with real data as a proof of concept of how applying attention checks can systematically skew latent/hidden variables in the included population, and then discusses the broader implications with suggestions for how to manage and reduce, or at a minimum acknowledge, the problem.

Siritzky, Emma M.↗

1992 Seattle Household Travel Survey Wave 3

The Seattle Household Travel Survey Wave 3, conducted in 1992, was the third wave in a ten-part longitudinal panel survey initiated by the Puget Sound Regional Council to assess the travel patterns of households in the Puget Sound region of Washington state. This collection contains the third set of panel data for approximately 1,700 households in King, Kitsap, Pierce, and Snohomish counties. Due to various sources of attrition, approximately 20% of households needed to be replaced for each survey wave. The survey relied on the willingness of study area residents to 1) provide demographic information about their household, its members, and its vehicles; 2) document all travel for each household member, aged 15 years or older, for an assigned two-day period; and 3) agree to participate in additional survey waves. After an initial telephone screening, survey participants received mailed travel diaries to aid in documenting travel information for the two-day assessment period. Respondents were instructed to record their mode of transportation, trip purpose, number of vehicle passengers, departure and arrival times, ride fare, and parking costs. Demographic information for this study includes age, gender, education, employment status, and household income.

1Hz data↗

1996 Seattle Household Travel Survey Wave 6

The Seattle Household Travel Survey Wave 6, conducted in the second and third quarters of 1996, was the sixth wave in a ten-part longitudinal panel survey of the travel patterns of households in the Puget Sound region of Washington state. The survey series was initiated in 1989 by the Puget Sound Regional Council. This collection contains the sixth set of panel data for approximately 2,000 households in King, Kitsap, Pierce, and Snohomish counties. Due to various sources of attrition, approximately 20% of households needed to be replaced for each survey wave. The survey relied on the willingness of study area residents to 1) provide demographic information about their household, its members, and its vehicles; 2) document all travel for each household member, aged 15 years or older, for an assigned two-day period; and 3) agree to participate in additional survey waves. After an initial telephone screening, survey participants received mailed travel diaries to aid in documenting travel information for the two-day assessment period. Respondents were instructed to record their mode of transportation, trip purpose, number of vehicle passengers, departure and arrival times, ride fare, and parking costs. Demographic information for this study includes age, gender, education, employment status, and household income.

1Hz data↗

2000 Seattle Household Travel Survey Wave 9

The Seattle Household Travel Survey Wave 9, conducted in 2000, was the ninth wave in a ten-part longitudinal panel survey of the travel patterns of households in the Puget Sound region of Washington state. The survey series was initiated in 1989 by the Puget Sound Regional Council. This collection contains the ninth set of panel data for approximately 2,000 households in King, Kitsap, Pierce, and Snohomish counties. Due to various sources of attrition, approximately 20% of households needed to be replaced for each survey wave. The survey relied on the willingness of study area residents to 1) provide demographic information about their household, its members, and its vehicles; 2) document all travel for each household member, aged 15 years or older, for an assigned two-day period; and 3) agree to participate in additional survey waves. After an initial telephone screening, survey participants received mailed travel diaries to aid in documenting travel information for the two-day assessment period. Respondents were instructed to record their mode of transportation, trip purpose, number of passengers, departure and arrival times, ride fare, and parking costs. Demographic information for this study includes age, gender, education, employment status, and household income.

1Hz data↗

Offshore Advanced Infrastructure Integrity Model (AIIM) Dashboard

The Advanced Infrastructure Integrity Model (AIIM) is a multivariate, multi-machine learning modeling technology applied to evaluate the integrity of offshore energy infrastructure (e.g., pipelines, platforms) in the U.S Gulf Region. Offshore energy infrastructure plays an essential role in ensuring access to safe and secure energy for the United States. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), production in the U.S. Gulf Region accounts for 15% of total crude and 5% of total natural gas from the United States. Many of these structures have been operating for close to or past their design life, while others have the chance of attrition before return on investment. To better understand the potential for reuse or life extension opportunities, an assessment of the infrastructure integrity is critical to inform safe decision making. Assessing structural integrity, AIIM provides key insights that inform infrastructure use and reuse, as well as hazard prevention planning, in support of stakeholders including researchers and industry.

Advanced Infrastructure Integrity Model↗

10 MWE CDCL Large Pilot Plant – pre-FEED Study

Coal Direct Chemical Looping (CDCL) is an advanced oxy-combustion technology that has the potential to substantially reduce the energy penalty and the cost of electricity (COE) for coal-fired power generation with CO₂ capture. The Babcock & Wilcox Company (B&W) and The Ohio State University (OSU) have been collaborating on the development of an iron oxide oxygen-carrier based chemical looping technology for clean power generation with inherent carbon capture. In this process, coal is dried and pulverized prior to being transported into a moving-bed reducer. In the reducer, coal reacts with the oxygen-carrier particles, forming combustion byproducts, predominantly CO₂ and H₂O, while reducing the iron oxide oxidation state from Fe₂O₃ to a mixture of FeO and Fe. The reduced state particles are then transported to a combustor reactor and re-oxidized with air. Following the oxidation, the oxygen-carrier particles are regenerated, and a large amount of heat is released for steam production. The produced steam is sent to a turbine for electricity generation. Meanwhile, the CO₂–rich stream leaving the reducer is cooled, cleaned, and compressed for subsequent pipeline transportation and sequestration. By combining air separation and fuel conversion into a single system, the CDCL technology enables the intensification of oxy-combustion processes by eliminating the energy and cost intensive cryogenic air separation unit and thereby results in higher overall plant efficiencies and lower COE’s. The use of a moving-bed reducer results in high conversions of volatile hydrocarbons and high CO₂ purity, which reduces the cost of downstream CO₂ purification for sequestration or utilization. The Babcock & Wilcox Company in collaboration with The Ohio State University, Johnson & Matthey, The Electric Power Research Institute, and Dover Light & Power completed a Preliminary Front-End Engineering and Design (Pre-FEED) study of a 10 MWe coal-direct chemical looping (CDCL) pilot plant. The planned system is a modular 10 MWe CDCL large pilot facility consisting in 4 modules of 2.5 MWe each, working in parallel and to be hosted within the current structure at the City of Dover’s Municipal Power Plant. The CDCL system can achieve auto-thermal operation and includes a sub-critical steam cycle for power generation. The pilot system was designed to demonstrate full commercial operation at a reduced scale. The coal distribution per plan area is a representative slice of larger commercial arrangements. The system includes a CO₂ recycle system, but it does not include a compression system. The large pilot includes all the environmental control equipment and oxygen carrier and ash handling systems. As part of the project, the Team performed laboratory testing and carried out multiple pilot test campaigns to obtain design and performance information at the 250 kWth CDCL pilot facility at the Babcock & Wilcox Company’s Research Center. The Team demonstrated sustained operations at designed coal inputs, high coal conversion, high CO₂ purity, heat generation on the combustor, low carbon carryover between reactors and low particle attrition. Emissions generated in the reducer reactor were identified as SO₂ and NO x . The commercial manufacturing cost of oxygen carrier particle was evaluated by JM. A particle manufacturing report was generated and submitted to the DOE. Based on the results from the pilot tests and the pre-FEED design efforts, a techno-economic analysis was performed. The study shows that the CDCL process is a promising carbon-friendly technology capable of producing electricity with high efficiency. The estimated COE of the supercritical CDCL plant is $83.3 / MWh, which meets DOE’s target of less than 30% increase in COE when compared to a supercritical PC plant without CO₂ capture. This is the lowest among the existing carbon capture technologies (post-combustion and oxy-combustion) for fossil fuel power plant. CDCL is evaluated to be the most promising technology for carbon capture from the economic aspect.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

High Temperature Erosion In Particle Based CSP Systems

Particle based concentrated solar power plants are increasingly being considered as an alternative to molten salts. Although these particle based systems provide the inherent safety and enhanced lifetime from reduced corrosion compared to molten salt systems, they bring in complexities associated with surface erosion from falling particle impact and sliding motion along the surfaces. Past research on particle related erosion has been limited to high velocity applications and doesn’t necessarily coincide with the operating conditions in CSP systems. In our work, we evaluate characterize the rate of erosion for particles and containment materials at 800ºC. Three different types of erosion resulting from a) impact of solid particles on receiver, particle storage, and heat exchanger walls; b) abrasion erosion from particle sliding motion along walls; and c) attrition erosion as the particles breakdown from particle-to-particle contact and particle-to-wall interactions are evaluated and compared across a varied spectrum of particle and containment material spectrum. From the results, It is noted that temperature plays a key role in the rate of erosion experienced by any material. With the increase in temperature, materials become more ductile and are more readily sheared away from particle impinging or sliding motion. Furthermore, the particles themselves have higher susceptibility to breakdown which also lowers particle thermal absorptance and thus efficiency as heat transfer fluid.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

High Temperature Erosion Modeling in Particle Based CSP Systems

1. Introduction. Wear and erosion damage of materials from solid particle and surface interactions is a major issue in various industries. Although more common in mining and oil and gas production, erosion is becoming a critical issue in renewable technologies as well such as particle based concentrated solar thermal power (CSP) systems. In particle based CSP systems, solid particles are used to absorb solar energy and as thermal storage. However, these particles may cause significant amount of wear to system components while through the system at high temperatures. This damage can be costly, and therefore, requires a greater understanding of solid particle erosion in CSP systems. Throughout the years, models and tools have been developed to predict and control erosion in industries such as oil and gas production. However, these erosion models and erosion prediction tools have been mainly developed based on erosion data for much higher velocities and lower temperatures, i.e. the operating conditions for which the existing models have been built are not pertinent to those expected in CSP system. It is known that erosion depends on many factors such as material properties, erodent particle properties, and particle impact speed and angle. However, the effect of temperature on erosion is not vastly investigated. In this work, a temperature-based correlation is introduced that will be used to modify the existing erosion models to predict erosion rates at velocities and temperatures relevant to Gen3 CSP systems. The existing models are first validated against erosion experiments run at low temperatures and low velocities. Subsequently, a temperature correction term is developed that can extend the existing models to high temperatures, based on the available experimental data showing the effect of temperature on impact erosion. 2. Erosion Models. Continuing sequence of impacts from solid particles on surfaces would result in loss of material due to mechanical interaction between solid surface and particles. Erosion equations have been developed to predict erosion under different conditions and erosion mechanism, including cutting and deformation erosion. These models are mainly either mechanistic, empirical, and semi-mechanistic models, when the latter combine the theory of the erosion mechanism and particle motion with the available experimental data. One of the first empirical correlation was introduced by American Petroleum Institute (API) Recommended Practice (RP) 14E [1]. This correlation was very conservative, and several improved empirical and semi-mechanistic equations were developed in the years following. More recently, the models introduced by Erosion/Corrosion Research Center (E/CRC) at the University of Tulsa and Arabnejad. et al. [2] are frequently used in the literature and industry, as they account for many parameters affecting erosion including particle impact speed and angle, material density and hardness, and particle size and shape. However, both these models were developed based on data at relatively high velocities and also do not take into account any mechanical changes in material associated with thermal cycling at high temperatures. 3. Erosion Prediction at High Temperatures. In this work, the accuracy of Arabnejad et al. model and E/CRC model is investigated to predict impact erosion at conditions relevant to Gen3 CSP systems. Two significant deviations expected in Gen3 systems compared to operating conditions used to build these models are particle impact velocities and system temperature. As a first step, the performance of these models was validated at low velocities and temperatures. Impact erosion experiments were conducted on SS316 coupons using HSP 40/70 ceramic particles. Assuming particle rate of 1 kg/s/m, 0.0254 m of particle curtain thickness, and particle velocity of 1.5 m/s in the system, an overall erosion of 0.59 mm/year was calculated. The experimental results were subsequently compared to those from computational simulations and erosion of 0.47 mm/year was obtained using the Arabnejad et al. model. The results indicated that the models work well at low velocities and low temperature conditions. To account for temperature effect, a mathematical correlation was developed using data published by DUCOM [3] for Inconel 600 eroded by alumina particles at high velocities. The correlation was applied to both Arabnejad et. al model and the E/CRC model. The prediction results from these modified models were within 20% of this experimental data. Predictions of of erosion by the modified E/CRC model at three different temperatures are made. Similar to the calculation at low temperature, a typical CSP system with 1 kg/s/m of particle flow rate per unit length of the particle curtain and a curtain thickness of 0.0254 m is assumed. The annual thickness loss calculations were run for different particle impact velocities, assuming a uniform particle impact area equal to the cross-sectional area of the curtain (particle-particle interactions and dispersion of particles are not considered in obtaining the results). It is observed that erosion increases exponentially as temperature increases. Furthermore, it is also noted that, erosion changes non-linearly with impact velocity. Currently, experiments are also being conducted to measure erosion of SS316 at 800 ºC with HSP 40/70 particles at low impact velocities. We expect to use the results from high temperature testing to further improve the temperature correlation function. Similar models are also being developed for abrasion erosion resulting from particle sliding along the surfaces as well as attrition from particle to particle and particle to surface interactions. References. [1] Institute, A. P. (1991). API Recommended Practice for Design and Installation of Offshore Production Platform Piping System, API RP 14E. [2] Arabnejad, H., Mansouri, A., Shirazi, S. A., and McLaury, B. S. (2015a). Development of mechanistic erosion equation for solid particles. Wear, 332–333, 1044–1050. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.wear.2015.01.031. [3] https://ducom.com/high-temperature-erosion-evaluating-sample-wear/

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Falling particle impact erosion testing for particle based CSP systems

CSP systems are currently being examined as an effective method for using solar energy to generate electricity. While much of this research has been conducted using molten salt as the heat transfer medium, in recent years, solid particles have been posited as a cheaper and more energy efficient heat transfer medium for use in CSP systems. Many researchers have looked into the effectiveness of solid particles as a heat transfer medium. However, a concern with the use of particles is that the falling particles will impact various components within the CSP system, such as the hopper, the heat exchanger, and the insulating material, resulting in surface erosion and damage. With repeated impacts from falling particles, material from the surfaces under impact is removed. The degree of erosion depends on whether the substrate is made of brittle or ductile material. Furthermore, factors such as particle shape, size, hardness, concentration, impact angle, particle velocity, and substrate hardness will contribute to the erosion process and determine how much and how quickly erosion will takes place in a system. Three types of erosion will be observed simultaneously: impact erosion from particle impact on receiver, particle storage, and heat exchanger walls, abrasion erosion from particle sliding motion along walls, and attrition erosion as the particles breakdown from particle-to-particle contact and particle-to-wall interactions. It is imperative to understand each of these erosions individually for a more comprehensive understanding and prediction of CSP system durability. In this work, we developed an experimental test setup capable of measuring impact erosion at conditions relevant to 1MW CSP plant. Subsequently, Impact erosion measurements were performed for three different candidate substrate materials at low particle velocities using HSP 40/70 ceramic particles.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

MST e-News (Fall 2020)

As we just closed the fiscal year, I have been reflecting on the state of the division, and in particular, the health of our budget, staffing plans, and infrastructure. As many of you know, the division has grown in both budget and workforce. Since 2018, the division has grown from 150 to 174 permanent staff (but note, with students, post docs, and contractors—we are a division of 218). As one might imagine, our budget has grown significantly too. In 2018, at year end, we had a budget of $85 million. While I am still collecting some final numbers, all projections indicate that we closed out FY20 at $115 million. This growth has occurred primarily in our applied energy programs as well as Pu Sustainment. However, it is important to note that there have been important contributions to this growth across much of the portfolio, including in our OES, BES, and LDRD programs. With that said, to support this programmatic growth, as a division we have done a tremendous amount of hiring to grow while outpacing attrition. At the same time, we have been establishing numerous new capabilities at TAs -3, -35, and -55. While this is exciting, it means we have some things to carefully consider. We have had numerous capability investments (i.e., new microscopes at TAs -3 and -55, new mechanical testing capabilities at TAs -3 and -35, and new synthesis capabilities across the division). But we are starting to feel the real crunch of the limitations of our aging facilities. Still more, even with this substantial growth, we continue to hire. And I believe that we really need to spend time thinking about mentoring, career development, and retention of our most important investment—our staff.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Pilot Testing of a Modular Oxygen Production System Using Oxygen Binding Adsorbents (Final Report)

In this project, RTI and Air Liquide have focused on the development of innovative oxygen separation materials and technologies based on reversibly binding of oxygen to enable smaller and cheaper air separations. In alignment with that object the team has had multiple achievements to advance the technology including: Synthesized and characterized novel M-CoSalen (RTIO2Sorb-1) material which showed a dynamic oxygen adsorption capacity in excess of 1wt%. Developed synthesis routes for RTIO2Sorb-1 with commercially relevant techniques and produced batches of 0.25kg and over 4 kg of total synthesis. Synthesized and characterized extrudate forms of the RTIO2Sorb-1 with relevant crush strength and maintained dynamic oxygen adsorption capacity in near 1wt%. Developed techniques for forming structured beds in fiber shapes with conventional materials. Developed a model for O 2 sorption processes to analyze various bed configurations and cycle parameters. Studied classic O 2 solid sorbents reported in the literature to learn oxygen binding mechanisms. Design a 10 kg/day O 2 VPSA pilot system with 2 or 4-bed operation. Completed a techno-economic analysis based on the experimental results and modeling. The overall objective of the project was to design, fabricate, and test a modular O 2 production system and perform a techno-economic analysis (TEA) after testing to determine the cost-benefit of the advanced modular air separation system. The goals of this technology development project were to achieve a bed-size factor (BSF) of less than 600 lb-adsorbent/TPD O 2 (ton/day O 2 ) (as compared with the state-of-the-art BSF of 850), and O 2 -purity greater than 95% at a cost that is projected to be equivalent or lower than the current state of the art (SOTA), commercially available large-scale cryogenic air separation systems. To achieve these goals and objective, the project team executed on (1) oxygen binding adsorbent optimization and scale up, (2) adsorbent material formation process studies to form the adsorbent material into structured beds for rapid pressure swing adsorption (PSA) cycles with low pressure drop, fast mass transfer, and low attrition, (3) cycle development studies to optimize the PSA process, and (4) develop simulation tools for rapid cycle modeling and numerical evaluation/optimization.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

New Employee Training Academy Overview [Slides]

Mission statement: Providing new employees with a foundation of excellence, ensuring workers are prepared to contribute to the mission with a thorough understanding of nuclear facility fundamentals, In-depth onboarding and training for ALDWP new hires, Improve the onboarding experience and reduce initial training time while decreasing attrition.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Triad ST&E Committee Meeting - Laboratory Update [Slides]

My ultimate responsibility is to make sure the people of this Laboratory are safe. Impacts of the mandate are manageable and not a significant deviation from historical attrition. We will be communicating with employees on vacation/LWOP about important dates and the criteria for returning to work.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Nuclear decisionmaking, complexity and emerging and disruptive technologies: A comprehensive assessment

The complex interactions of emerging and disruptive technologies (EDTs) could significantly impact nuclear decision-making, particular in an escalating regional conventional conflict. Such conflicts may present governments with a range of nuclear decisions: whether to introduce a nuclear dimension to a crisis, whether to cross the nuclear threshold through limited nuclear use, how to respond to a limited nuclear attack, whether to expand the scope and intensity of initial limited attacks, and whether to escalate to an all-out nuclear war. At each decision point, EDTs create potential risks as well as rewards. EDTs are likely to influence the context for nuclear decision-making and the choices between different courses of action. EDTs could impact the context of nuclear decision-making by improving or degrading situational assessment, the ability to deliberate, and the ability to manage one’s nuclear forces. EDTs could influence the choice between nuclear restraint or escalation by affecting the perceived strategic benefits, escalatory risks, and operational requirements associated with different courses of action. Even though particular combinations of EDTs could precipitate nuclear use in some scenarios, they could encourage restraint in others. The impact and relevance of the same combinations of EDTs might be different at various nuclear decision points. The availability of specific combinations of EDTs at different stages of a conflict would also vary because of the attrition and one-time-use nature of some capabilities. In later stages of a conflict, the decision maker’s confidence in different combinations of EDTs would depend on their previous experience in using them. While the interactions of EDTs are likely to bring additional complexity to a nuclear decision-making process, EDTs are also not the only source of complexity. Broader strategic, military, operational, legal, moral, and emotional factors are also likely to play an important role. These factors may dominate decision-making in a range of potential cases.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗