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DOE OSTI2023

Estimating building occupancy: a machine learning system for day, night, and episodic events

Building occupancy research increasingly emphasizes understanding the social and physical dynamics of how people occupy space. Opportunities in the open source domain including social media, Volunteered Geographic Information, crowdsourcing, and sensor data have proliferated, resulting in the exploration of building occupancy dynamics at varying spatiotemporal scales. At Oak Ridge National Laboratory, research into building occupancies through the development of a global learning framework that accommodates exploitation of open source authoritative sources, including governmental census and surveys, journal articles, real estate databases, and more, to report national and subnational building occupancies across the world continues through the Population Density Tables (PDT) project. This probabilistic learning system accommodates expert knowledge, experience, and open-source data to capture local, socioeconomic, and cultural information about human activity. It does so through a systematic process of data harmonization techniques in the development of observation models for over 50 building types to dynamically update baseline estimates and report probabilistic diurnal and episodic building occupancy estimates. This discussion will explore how PDT is implemented at scale and expanded based on the development of observation model classes and will explain how to interpret and spatially apply the reported probability occupancy estimates and uncertainty.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2020

State-of-the-art on research and applications of machine learning in the building life cycle

Fueled by big data, powerful and affordable computing resources, and advanced algorithms, machine learning has been explored and applied to buildings research for the past decades and has demonstrated its potential to enhance building performance. This study systematically surveyed how machine learning has been applied at different stages of building life cycle. By conducting a literature search on the Web of Knowledge platform, we found 9579 papers in this field and selected 153 papers for an in-depth review. The number of published papers is increasing year by year, with a focus on building design, operation, and control. However, no study was found using machine learning in building commissioning. There are successful pilot studies on fault detection and diagnosis of HVAC equipment and systems, load prediction, energy baseline estimate, load shape clustering, occupancy prediction, and learning occupant behaviors and energy use patterns. None of the existing studies were adopted broadly by the building industry, due to common challenges including (1) lack of large scale labeled data to train and validate the model, (2) lack of model transferability, which limits a model trained with one data-rich building to be used in another building with limited data, (3) lack of strong justification of costs and benefits of deploying machine learning, and (4) the performance might not be reliable and robust for the stated goals, as the method might work for some buildings but could not be generalized to others. Finally, findings from the study can inform future machine learning research to improve occupant comfort, energy efficiency, demand flexibility, and resilience of buildings, as well as to inspire young researchers in the field to explore multidisciplinary approaches that integrate building science, computing science, data science, and social science.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Developing energy flexibility in clusters of buildings: A critical analysis of barriers from planning to operation

This paper examines building energy flexibility at an aggregated level and addresses the main barriers and research gaps for the development of this resource across three design and development phases: market and policy, early planning and design, and operation. We review methodologies and tools and discuss barriers, challenges, and opportunities, incorporating policy, economic, technical, professional, and social perspectives. Although various legal and regulatory frameworks exist to foster the development of energy flexibility for small buildings, financing mechanisms are limited with a significant number of perceived risks undermining private investment. For the early planning and design phase, planners and designers lack appropriate tools and face interoperability challenges, which often results in insufficient consideration of demand response programs. The review of the operational phase highlighted the socio-technical challenges related to both the complexity of deployment and communication, as well as privacy and acceptability issues. Finally, the paper proposes a number of targeted research directions to address challenges and promote greater energy flexibility deployments, including capturing building demand side dynamics, improving baseline estimations and developing seamless connectivity between buildings and districts.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2015

Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor Mutation Is Associated With Longer Local Control After Definitive Chemoradiotherapy in Patients With Stage III Nonsquamous Non–Small-Cell Lung Cancer

Purpose: To determine the frequency and clinical significance of epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) mutations in patients with potentially curable stage III non–small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) who are eligible for definitive chemoradiotherapy (CRT). Patients and Methods: Between January 2001 and December 2010, we analyzed the EGFR mutational status in consecutive NSCLC patients who were treated by CRT. The response rate, relapse-free survival, 2-year relapse-free rate, initial relapse sites, and overall survival of the patients were investigated. Results: A total of 528 patients received CRT at our hospital during the study period. Of these, 274 were diagnosed as having nonsquamous NSCLC. Sufficient specimens for mutational analyses could be obtained from 198 of these patients. The proportion of patients with EGFR activating mutations was 17%. In addition to the well-known characteristics of patients carrying EGFR mutations (female, adenocarcinoma, and never/light smoker), the proportion of cases with smaller primary lesions (T1/2) was found to be higher in patients with EGFR mutations than in those with wild-type EGFR. Patients with EGFR mutations showed similar response rate, relapse-free survival, and 2-year relapse-free rates as compared to patients with wild-type EGFR. Local relapses as the site of initial relapse occurred significantly less frequently in patients with EGFR mutation (4% vs 21%; P=.045). Patients with EGFR mutations showed longer local control (adjusted hazard ratio 0.49; P=.043). After disease progression, a majority of the patients with EGFR mutations received EGFR tyrosine kinase inhibitors (62%), and these patients showed longer postprogression survival than those with wild-type EGFR. Conclusions: Our study is the first to show radiosensitive biology of EGFR-mutated tumors in definitive CRT with curative intent. This finding could serve as a credible baseline estimate of EGFR-mutated population in stage III nonsquamous NSCLC.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Biorefinery upgrading of herbaceous biomass to renewable hydrocarbon fuels, Part 1: Process modeling and mass balance analysis

Process simulation has long been a well-established tool to track key operational, design, and mass and energy balance metrics for pre-commercial technologies such as advanced lignocellulosic biofuels. While tools such as this are well-documented in the public literature around 2nd-generation cellulosic ethanol technologies (which have been scaled up to commercial deployment to some degree over the past decade), such models and analysis information remain more sparse for more complex biorefinery pathways focused on producing drop-in hydrocarbon fuels and blend-stocks, particularly regarding information required to support air emissions or other environmental analysis. In this work, we summarize key details for an established "design case" modeling the conversion of herbaceous lignocellulosic biomass into a renewable diesel hydrocarbon blend-stock based on a representative lipid pathway from oleaginous yeast. The process is based on a biochemical deconstruction and upgrading approach utilizing deacetylation and dilute acid pretreatment, followed by enzymatic hydrolysis, fermentation, and catalytic upgrading of hydrolysate sugars to fuels. We provide key mass and energy balance outputs from the process models, with accompanying stream tables and component-level flowrates. A total of 12 model scenarios are presented spanning two feedstocks, three biorefinery scales, and two processing approaches for the lignin/residual solids waste streams. This "Part 1" manuscript presents the resulting impacts across the 12 cases on fuel yields and key output streams, focused here on direct biorefinery air emissions for selected components including CO 2 as well as sulfur (SOx) and nitrogen oxides (NOx). In the context of cleaner production, the latter focus on selected biorefinery air emission outputs establishes an initial baseline estimate and accompanying framework of the model cases, upon which an accompanying "Part 2" study will build to refine the values for these and other air pollutants across these scenarios, also considering mitigation options to comply with applicable regulatory standards. We also highlight further optimization opportunities based on potential tradeoffs identified here between air emissions versus life-cycle greenhouse gas profiles attributed to the disposition of lignin/residual solids.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2013

Assessment of beating parameters in human induced pluripotent stem cells enables quantitative in vitro screening for cardiotoxicity

Human induced pluripotent stem cell (iPSC)-derived cardiomyocytes show promise for screening during early drug development. Here, we tested a hypothesis that in vitro assessment of multiple cardiomyocyte physiological parameters enables predictive and mechanistically-interpretable evaluation of cardiotoxicity in a high-throughput format. Human iPSC-derived cardiomyocytes were exposed for 30 min or 24 h to 131 drugs, positive (107) and negative (24) for in vivo cardiotoxicity, in up to 6 concentrations (3 nM to 30 uM) in 384-well plates. Fast kinetic imaging was used to monitor changes in cardiomyocyte function using intracellular Ca{sup 2+} flux readouts synchronous with beating, and cell viability. A number of physiological parameters of cardiomyocyte beating, such as beat rate, peak shape (amplitude, width, raise, decay, etc.) and regularity were collected using automated data analysis. Concentration–response profiles were evaluated using logistic modeling to derive a benchmark concentration (BMC) point-of-departure value, based on one standard deviation departure from the estimated baseline in vehicle (0.3% dimethyl sulfoxide)-treated cells. BMC values were used for cardiotoxicity classification and ranking of compounds. Beat rate and several peak shape parameters were found to be good predictors, while cell viability had poor classification accuracy. In addition, we applied the Toxicological Prioritization Index (ToxPi) approach to integrate and display data across many collected parameters, to derive “cardiosafety” ranking of tested compounds. Multi-parameter screening of beating profiles allows for cardiotoxicity risk assessment and identification of specific patterns defining mechanism-specific effects. These data and analysis methods may be used widely for compound screening and early safety evaluation in drug development. - Highlights: • Induced pluripotent stem cell-derived cardiomyocytes are promising in vitro models. • We tested if evaluation of cardiotoxicity is possible in a high-throughput format. • The assay shows benefits of automated data integration across multiple parameters. • Quantitative assessment of concentration–response is possible using iPSCs. • Multi-parametric screening allows for cardiotoxicity risk assessment.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Measurements of higher-order cumulants of multiplicity and net-electric charge distributions in inelastic proton-proton interactions by NA61/SHINE

This paper presents the energy dependence of multiplicity and net-electric charge fluctuations in p+p interactions at beam momenta 20, 31, 40, 80, and 158 \(\text{ Ge }\hspace{-1.00006pt}\text{ V }\!/\!c\). Results are corrected for the experimental biases and quantified with the use of cumulants and factorial cumulants. Cumulant ratios are an essential tool in the search for the critical point of strongly interacting matter in heavy ion collisions. Measurements performed in p+p interactions provide a vital baseline estimation in these studies. The measured signals are compared with the string hadronic models Epos1.99 and FTFP-BERT.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2013

Assessing Uncertainty and Repeatability in Time-Lapse VSP Monitoring of CO2 Injection in a Brine Aquifer, Frio Formation, Texas (A Case Study)

This study was done to assess the repeatability and uncertainty of time-lapse VSP response to CO 2 injection in the Frio formation near Houston Texas. A work flow was built to assess the effect of time-lapse injected CO 2 into two Frio brine reservoir intervals, the ‘C’ sand (Frio1) and the ‘Blue sand’ (Frio2). The time-lapse seismic amplitude variations with sensor depth for both reservoirs Frio1 and Frio2 were computed by subtracting the seismic response of the base survey from each of the two monitor seismic surveys. Source site 1 has been considered as one of the best sites for evaluating the time-lapse response after injection. For site 1, the computed timelapse NRMS levels after processing had been compared to the estimated time-lapse NRMS level before processing for different control reflectors, and for brine aquifers Frio1, and Frio2 to quantify detectability of amplitude difference. As the main interest is to analyze the time-lapse amplitude variations, different scenarios have been considered. Three different survey scenarios were considered: the base survey which was performed before injection, monitor1 performed after the first injection operation, and monitor2 which was after the second injection. The first scenario was base-monitor1, the second was basemonitor2, and the third was monitor1-monitor2. We considered three ‘control’ reflections above the Frio to assist removal of overburden changes, and concluded that third control reflector (CR3) is the most favorable for the first scenario in terms of NRMS response, and first control reflector (CR1) is the most favorable for the second and third scenarios in terms of NRMS response. The NRMS parameter is shown to be a useful measure to assess the effect of processing on time-lapse data. The overall NRMS for the Frio VSP data set was found to be in the range of 30% to 80% following basic processing. This could be considered as an estimated baseline in assessing the utility of VSP for CO 2 monitoring. This study shows that the CO 2 injection in brine reservoir Frio1 (the ‘C’ sand unit) does induce a relative change in amplitude response, and for Frio2 (the ‘Blue’ sand unit) an amplitude change has been also detected, but in both cases the uncertainty, as measured by NRMS indicates the reservoir changes are, at best, only slightly above the noise level, and often below the noise level of the overall data set.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Measurement of radiolytic hydrogen generation and impact of drying treatments on reactor exposed and surrogate aluminum materials

Technical challenges associated with dry storage of Aluminum-clad Spent Nuclear Fuel (ASNF) include a need to better understand the potential extent of gaseous molecular hydrogen (H 2 ) production through radiolytic degradation of the aluminum (oxy)hydroxide films present on ASNF. The characterization of radiolytic gas generation from ASNF (oxy)hydroxide layers has been identified as a key knowledge gap which poses a technical challenge to the long-term storage of ASNF. Task 2 of the action plan for the extended (>50 years) dry storage of ASNF addresses this gap. Previous radiolysis studies performed under Task 2 established baseline estimates of H 2 generation rates from the attendant hydrated oxides. The results confirmed that net radiolytic H 2 production has a dependency on absorbed gamma dose, as well as relative humidity and cover gas composition (air, nitrogen, and argon). Further experiments revealed that the physisorbed water on the samples may significantly impact the radiolytic H 2 yield. This phenomenon complicates the determination of H 2 generation rates for hydrated oxides, which may lead to inaccurate modeling predictions of the long-term H 2 yields in sealed storage systems containing ASNF, particularly when compared to spent fuel casks which have undergone some drying process intended to remove physically- and chemically-bound water. This report describes the testing methods utilized and the hydrogen generation results obtained in an investigation of the effects of gamma irradiation on aluminum materials for a variety of (oxy)hydroxide surface compositions and drying conditions. The testing methods included small-area aluminum material testing in ampules, and large-area aluminum material testing in steel vessels. Test material preparation, irradiation, and radiolytic H 2 measurement methods are summarized. The measured H 2 concentrations, which reflect the variable initial hydrated inventory and drying treatments, are compared to one another as well as to previously published data, to identify the primary factors affecting radiolytic H 2 generation rates and potential equilibrium H 2 concentrations.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Quantifying Annual Industrial Locomotive Energy Consumption in the United States

While US Class 1 railroad locomotive rosters and annual fuel consumption are well-documented, considerably less is known regarding the overall energy consumption of operations involving industrial locomotives. To determine the energy savings potential of this rail operating sector, the objective of this research is to develop an inventory of US industrial locomotives and a baseline estimate of their annual energy consumption. Creating an industrial locomotives roster from public data is challenging given their diverse ownership by shippers or leasing companies, and operating locales largely out of public view. By cross-referencing public data on locomotive reporting marks, serial numbers, online images and aerial images, the project team confirmed the age, model and horsepower of over one thousand industrial locomotives. Estimating energy consumption is complicated by the variability in industrial locomotive types and power ratings, and extreme differences in duty cycles and utilization. Given these limitations, using quantified case study examples and adjustments to standard EPA line-haul and switching duty cycles, bounds on the magnitude of annual US industrial locomotive energy consumption were estimated.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS1981

An assessment of the impact of transition on advanced winged entry vehicle thermal protection system mass

This study examines the impact of turbulent heating on thermal protection system (TPS) mass for advanced winged entry vehicles. Four basic systems are considered: insulative, metallic hot structures, metallic standoff, and hybrid systems. TPS sizings are performed using entry trajectories tailored specifically to the characteristics of each TPS concept under consideration. Comparisons are made between systems previously sized under the assumption of all laminar heating and those sized using a baseline estimate of transition and turbulent heating. The relative effect of different transition criteria on TPS mass requirements is also examined. Also investigated are entry trajectories tailored to alleviate turbulent heating. Results indicate the significant impact of turbulent heating on TPS mass and demonstrate the importance of both accurate transition criteria and entry trajectory tailoring.

Wurster, K. E.↗

NASA NTRS1984

The problem of atmospheric turbulence

All ground-based observations of the solar five-minute oscillations are affected by turbulence in the Earth's atmosphere that leads to substantial refractive index variations. The turbulent motions serve to mix an air mass that is thermally stratified in the vertical, thereby producing intermittent thermal fluctuations over a wide range of heights in the atmosphere. These thermal structures yield refractive index changes that deflect the light path in a complicated way, producing intricate variations of amplitude and phase in what might have started out as simple plane waves. Since the fluid turbulence is statistical in nature, so too is the optical turbulence which is an integral measure of the refractive index changes along the light travel path. All of this produces what is usually called atmospheric seeing, which consists of image motion, blurring and distortion across the field of view. The effects of atmospheric seeing upon observations of five-minute oscillations carried out from the ground were assessed. This will help to provide a baseline estimate of the scienctific benefits that might accrue if one were able to observe the same oscillations from a space observatory unfettered by seeing effects.

Toomre, J.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Airborne lidar experiments at the Savannah River Plant

The results of remote sensing experiments at the Department of Energy (DOE) Savannah River Nuclear Facility utilizing the NASA Airborne Oceanographic Lidar (AOL) are presented. The flights were conducted in support of the numerous environmental monitoring requirements associated with the operation of the facility and for the purpose of furthering research and development of airborne lidar technology. Areas of application include airborne laser topographic mapping, hydrologic studies using fluorescent tracer dye, timber volume estimation, baseline characterization of wetlands, and aquatic chlorophyll and photopigment measurements. Conclusions relative to the usability of airborne lidar technology for the DOE for each of these remote sensing applications are discussed.

Krabill, William B.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Application of a Slotted Airfoil for UH-60A Helicopter Performance

Recently developed forward slotted airfoils were applied to a UH-60A helicopter, and the performance has been estimated. Baseline SC1095 and SC1094 R8 airfoil characteristics were modified based on CFD calculations of an A3c slotted airfoil to incorporate aerodynamic characteristics of a high-lifting airfoil. The slotted airfoil increases maximum thrust of the UH-60A helicopter by up to 25%, but a significant penalty is observed at CTI9 less than 0.11. This penalty results from higher drag than the baseline airfoil at low angles of attack. A drag reduction at high Mach numbers is necessary to fully exploit the airfoil capability in the rotorcraft application. Preliminary comparison of the slotted airfoil with the wide chord blade shows that the slotted airfoil has limited advantages over the wide chord blade.

UH-60A AIRCRAFT↗

NASA NTRS2016

EOS Terra Terra Constellation Exit/Future Maneuver Plans Update

This EOS Terra Constellation Exit/Future Maneuver Plans Update presentation will discuss brief history of Terra EOM work; lifetime fuel estimates; baseline vs. proposed plan origin; resultant exit orbit; baseline vs. proposed exit plan; long term orbit altitude; revised lifetime proposal and fallback options.

EOS Terra↗

NASA NTRS2020

Terrestrial Planets Comparative Climatology (TPCC) mission concept

The authors and co-signers of the Terrestrial Planets Comparative Climatology (TPCC) mission concept white paper advocate that planetary science in the next decade would greatly benefit from comparatively studying the fundamental behavior of the atmospheres of Venus and Mars, contemporaneously and with the same instrumentation, to capture atmospheric response to the same solar forcing, and with a minimum of instrument-related variability. NASA’s vision is to understand the effects of the Sun on the solar system and the potential for life elsewhere (Obj,1.1 of [1]). This vision directly motivates the study of terrestrial climate histories and evolution, with the ultimate goal of understanding what factors allow the emergence and sustainability of life/biosphere. It is widely accepted that Venus, Mars, and Earth were formed at the same time and in the same neighborhood of the solar nebula [2,3], and had water—a necessary ingredient for life. In spite of strong overlap in the atmospheric composition of these planets, their current climatic states are vastly different. While Earth retains water, both Mars and Venus’ surfaces are now dry. The manner in which these terrestrial bodies evolved, and whether Mars or Venus currently hosts or previously hosted life, are fundamental mysteries in planetary science. As such, the TPCC mission concept has been developed.The TPCC guiding science goals are:(1) to understand Venus’ evolutionary history compared to Mars and Earth, and (2) to elucidate the driving forces and mechanisms of global circulation at Mars and Venus. These goals address the science question: Why have Mars’ and Venus’ climates evolved so differently from each other and from Earth’s? Furthermore, a greater depth of understanding our own solar system, enables us to understand the variability and likelihood of habitable conditions within extra-solar planetary systems.We suggest a mission architecture and payload that would determine the noble gas content and isotopic ratios, including the D/H ratio, at Venus with sufficient accuracy to identify the timeline of Venus’ climatic evolution for comparison with Mars. In addition, our concept would systematically “follow the energy” at Mars and Venus, in order to establish how solar forcing on the two atmospheric systems leads to the current balance of dynamical, chemical, and radiative processes responsible for each planet’s climatic state.This would include acquisition of the first global atmospheric wind profiles on either planet;global, continuous profiles of aerosols, gases, and water vapor at vertical resolutions higher than any previous mission;and regular UV and IR night glow observations tracking global circulation on both planets.To increase the fidelity of the planned planetary comparisons, the TPCC mission concept baseline (estimated to be New Frontiers Class)would send a single spacecraft to visit one planet and then the next, allowing measurements of each planet with the same instrumentation within similar parts of the solar cycle. The concept uses commercial solar-electric propulsion (SEP; e.g., [4])similar to the Psyche mission [5], plus a probesent deep into Venus’ atmosphere(e.g., LLISSE concept; [6]).Alternatively, “twin” spacecraft (with added probe to the Venus craft),developed at the same time,and launched close in time,would increase the overlap in operation periods and should also be studied. Either architecture is a timely alternative to independently developed and launched spacecraft payloads, which ultimately are more costly and difficult to inter-calibrate.

Leslie K. Tamppari↗

NASA NTRS2020

Seven Centuries of Reconstructed Brahmaputra River Discharge Demonstrate Underestimated High Discharge and Flood Hazard Frequency

The lower Brahmaputra River in Bangladesh and Northeast India often floods during the monsoon season, with catastrophic consequences for people throughout the region. While most climate models predict an intensified monsoon and increase in flood risk with warming, robust baseline estimates of natural climate variability in the basin are limited by the short observational record. Here we use a new seven-century (1309–2004 C.E) tree-ring reconstruction of monsoon season Brahmaputra discharge to demonstrate that the early instrumental period (1956–1986 C.E.) ranks amongst the driest of the past seven centuries (13th percentile). Further, flood hazard inferred from the recurrence frequency of high discharge years is severely underestimated by 24–38% in the instrumental record compared to previous centuries and climate model projections. A focus on only recent observations will therefore be insufficient to accurately characterise flood hazard risk in the region, both in the context of natural variability and climate change.

tree-ring reconstruction↗

NASA NTRS1991

Geodesy by radio interferometry - Water vapor radiometry for estimation of the wet delay

An important source of error in VLBI estimates of baseline length is unmodeled variations of the refractivity of the neutral atmosphere along the propagation path of the radio signals. This paper presents and discusses the method of using data from a water vapor radiomete (WVR) to correct for the propagation delay caused by atmospheric water vapor, the major cause of these variations. Data from different WVRs are compared with estimated propagation delays obtained by Kalman filtering of the VLBI data themselves. The consequences of using either WVR data or Kalman filtering to correct for atmospheric propagation delay at the Onsala VLBI site are investigated by studying the repeatability of estimated baseline lengths from Onsala to several other sites. The repeatability obtained for baseline length estimates shows that the methods of water vapor radiometry and Kalman filtering offer comparable accuracies when applied to VLBI observations obtained in the climate of the Swedish west coast. For the most frequently measured baseline in this study, the use of WVR data yielded a 13 percent smaller weighted-root-mean-square (WRMS) scatter of the baseline length estimates compared to the use of a Kalman filter. It is also clear that the 'best' minimum elevationi angle for VLBI observations depends on the accuracy of the determinations of the total propagation delay to be used, since the error in this delay increases with increasing air mass.

Elgered, G.↗