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Three body problem of planetary orbiters based on central body oblateness, solar effects, and atmospheric drag using equations of motion and transformations
Presented here is a preliminary study of the limits to solar flux intensity prediction, and of whether the general lack of predictability in the solar flux arises from the nonlinear chaotic nature of the Sun's physical activity. Statistical analysis of a chaotic signal can extract only its most gross features, and detailed physical models fail, since even the simplest equations of motion for a nonlinear system can exhibit chaotic behavior. A recent theory by Feigenbaum suggests that nonlinear systems that can be led into chaotic behavior through a sequence of period-doubling bifurcations will exhibit a universal behavior. As the control parameter is increased, the bifurcation points occur in such a way that a proper ratio of these will approach the universal Feigenbaum number. Experimental evidence supporting the applicability of the Feigenbaum scenario to solar flux data is sparse. However, given the hypothesis that the Sun's convection zones are similar to a Rayleigh-Bernard mechanism, we can learn a great deal from the remarkable agreement observed between the prediction by theory (period doubling - a universal route to chaos) and the amplitude decrease of the signal's regular subharmonics. The authors show that period-doubling-type bifurcation is a possible route to a chaotic pattern of solar flux that is distinguishable from the logarithm of its power spectral density. This conclusion is the first positive step toward a reformulation of solar flux by a nonlinear chaotic approach. The ultimate goal of this research is to be able to predict an estimate of the upper and lower bounds for solar flux within its predictable zones. Naturally, it is an important task to identify the time horizons beyond which predictability becomes incompatible with computability.
A preliminary study of the limits to solar flux intensity prediction, and of whether the general lack of predictability in the solar flux arises from the nonlinear chaotic nature of the Sun's physical activity is presented. Statistical analysis of a chaotic signal can extract only its most gross features, and detailed physical models fail, since even the simplest equations of motion for a nonlinear system can exhibit chaotic behavior. A recent theory by Feigenbaum suggests that nonlinear systems that can be led into chaotic behavior through a sequence of period-doubling bifurcations will exhibit a universal behavior. As the control parameter is increased, the bifurcation points occur in such a way that a proper ratio of these will approach the universal Feigenbaum number. Experimental evidence supporting the applicability of the Feigenbaum scenario to solar flux data is sparse. However, given the hypothesis that the Sun's convection zones are similar to a Rayleigh-Bernard mechanism, we can learn a great deal from the remarkable agreement observed between the prediction by theory (period doubling - a universal route to chaos) and the amplitude decrease of the signal's regular subharmonics. It is shown that period-doubling-type bifurcation is a possible route to a chaotic pattern of solar flux that is distinguishable from the logarithm of its power spectral density. This conclusion is the first positive step toward a reformulation of solar flux by a nonlinear chaotic approach. The ultimate goal of this research is to be able to predict an estimate of the upper and lower bounds for solar flux within its predictable zones. Naturally, it is an important task to identify the time horizons beyond which predictability becomes incompatible with computability.
Sudden appearance of cracks on a macroscopically smooth surface of brittle materials due to cooling or drying shrinkage is a phenomenon related to many engineering problems. Although conventional strength theories can be used to predict the necessary condition for crack appearance, they are unable to predict crack spacing and depth. On the other hand, fracture mechanics theory can only study the behavior of existing cracks. The theory of crack initiation can be summarized into three conditions, which is a combination of a strength criterion and laws of energy conservation, the average crack spacing and depth can thus be determined. The problem of crack initiation from the surface of an elastic half plane is solved and compares quite well with available experimental evidence. The theory of crack initiation is also applied to concrete pavements. The influence of cracking is modeled by the additional compliance according to Okamura's method. The theoretical prediction by this structural mechanics type of model correlates very well with the field observation. The model may serve as a theoretical foundation for future pavement joint design. The initiation of interactive cracks of quasi-brittle material is studied based on a theory of cohesive crack model. These cracks may grow simultaneously, or some of them may close during certain stages. The concept of crack unloading of cohesive crack model is proposed. The critical behavior (crack bifurcation, maximum loads) of the cohesive crack model are characterized by rate equations. The post-critical behavior of crack initiation is also studied.
Arrays of coupled oscillators have been proposed as means of realizing high power rf sources via coherent spatial power combining. In such applications, a uniform phase distribution over the aperture is usually desired. However, it has been shown that by detuning some of the oscillators away from the oscillation frequency of the ensemble of oscillators, one may achieve other useful aperture phase distributions. Of particular interest among those achievable are linear phase distributions because these result in steering of the output rf beam away from the broadside direction. The theory describing the behavior of such arrays of coupled oscillators is quite complicated since the phenomena involved are inherently nonlinear. However, a simplified theory has been developed which facilitates intuitive understanding. This simplified theory is based on a "continuum model" in which the aperture phase is represented by a continuous function of the aperture coordinates. A challenging aspect of the development of this theory is the derivation of appropriate boundary conditions at the edges or ends of the array.
Effective automation is critical in achieving the capacity and safety goals of the Next Generation Air Traffic System. Unfortunately creating integration and validation tools for such automation is difficult as the interactions between automation and their human counterparts is complex and unpredictable. This validation becomes even more difficult as we integrate wide-reaching technologies that affect the behavior of different decision makers in the system such as pilots, controllers and airlines. While overt short-term behavior changes can be explicitly modeled with traditional agent modeling systems, subtle behavior changes caused by the integration of new technologies may snowball into larger problems and be very hard to detect. To overcome these obstacles, we show how integration of new technologies can be validated by learning behavior models based on goals. In this framework, human participants are not modeled explicitly. Instead, their goals are modeled and through reinforcement learning their actions are predicted. The main advantage to this approach is that modeling is done within the context of the entire system allowing for accurate modeling of all participants as they interact as a whole. In addition such an approach allows for efficient trade studies and feasibility testing on a wide range of automation scenarios. The goal of this paper is to test that such an approach is feasible. To do this we implement this approach using a simple discrete-state learning system on a scenario where 50 aircraft need to self-navigate using Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) information. In this scenario, we show how the approach can be used to predict the ability of pilots to adequately balance aircraft separation and fly efficient paths. We present results with several levels of complexity and airspace congestion.
The initial phases of a study of the large-amplitude unsteady aerodynamics of wings in severe maneuver are reported. The research centers on vortex flows, their initiation at wing surfaces, their subsequent convection, and interaction dynamically with wings and control surfaces. The focus is on 2D and quasi-2D aspects of the problem and features the development of an exact nonlinear unsteady airfoil theory as well as an approach to the crossflow problem for slender wing applications including leading-edge separation. The effective use of interactive on-line computing in quantifying and visualizing the nonsteady effects of severe maneuver is demonstrated. Interactive computational work is now possible, in which a maneuver can be initiated and its effects observed and analyzed immediately.
Most fluid flows are turbulent rather than laminar and the reason for this was studied. One of the earliest explanations was that laminar flow is unstable, and the linear instability theory was first developed to explore this possibility. A series of early papers by Rayleigh produced many notable results concerning the instability of inviscid flows, such as the discovery of inflectional instability. Viscosity was commonly thought to act only to stabilize the flow, and flows with convex velocity profiles appeared to be stable. The investigations that led to a viscous theory of boundary layer instability was reported. The earliest application of linear stability theory to transition prediction calculated the amplitude ratio of the most amplified frequency as a function of Reynolds number for a Blasius boundary layer, and found that this quantity had values between five and nine at the observed Ret. The experiment of Schubauer and Skramstad (1947) completely reversed the prevailing option and fully vindicated the Gottingen proponents of the theory. This experiment demonstrated the existence of instability waves in a boundary layer, their connection with transition, and the quantitative description of their behavior by the theory of Tollmien and Schlichting. It is generally accepted that flow parameters such as pressure gradient, suction and heat transfer qualitatively affect transition in the manner predicted by the linear theory, and in particular that a flow predicted to be stable by the theory should remain laminar. The linear theory, in the form of the e9, or N-factor is today in routine use in engineering studies of laminar flow. The stability theory to boundary layers with pressure gradients and suction was applied. The only large body of numerical results for exact boundary layer solutions before the advent of the computer age by calculating the stability characteristics of the Falkner-Skan family of velocity profiles are given. When the digital computer reached a stage of development which permit the direct solution of the primary differential equations, numerical results were obtained from the linear theory during the next 10 years for many different boundary layer flows: three dimensional boundary layers; free convention boundary layers; compressible boundary layers; boundary layers on compliant walls; a recomputation of Falkner-Skan flows; unsteady boundary layers; and heated wall boundary layers.
The asymptotic behavior of planetary bow shocks and the ability of gas dynamic theory to describe it are studied. Spacecraft observations at Venus, earth, and Mars are used to model the shapes and positions of their distant bow waves. The measured planetary Mach cone angles are compared with the mean sonic and MHD fast wave Mach numbers at 0.7, 1.0, and 1.5 AU to assess the downstream influence of the interplanetary magnetic field. Numerical gas dynamic flow solutions extending to 50 obstacle radii behind each planet are obtained and tested against the observed location of the downstream bow shock.
The different substructures that form in the power-law and exponential creep regimes for single phase crystalline materials under various conditions of stress, temperature and strain are reviewed. The microstructure is correlated both qualitatively and quantitatively with power-law and exponential creep as well as with steady state and non-steady state deformation behavior. These observations suggest that creep is influenced by a complex interaction between several elements of the microstructure, such as dislocations, cells and subgrains. The stability of the creep substructure is examined in both of these creep regimes during stress and temperature change experiments. These observations are rationalized on the basis of a phenomenological model, where normal primary creep is interpreted as a series of constant structure exponential creep rate-stress relationships. The implications of this viewpoint on the magnitude of the stress exponent and steady state behavior are discussed. A theory is developed to predict the macroscopic creep behavior of a single phase material using quantitative microstructural data. In this technique the thermally activated deformation mechanisms proposed by dislocation physics are interlinked with a previously developed multiphase, three-dimensional. dislocation substructure creep model. This procedure leads to several coupled differential equations interrelating macroscopic creep plasticity with microstructural evolution.
A methodology for the mathematical modeling of preloaded joint-dominated truss-based space structures applicable in the microdynamic regime is presented. First, various factors which could affect the microdynamic behavior of joint-dominated truss structures are examined. Then, mathematical models for various types of joints involving contact deformations are derived from Hertzian contact theory. Their dynamic behavior is studied analytically and numerically by means of computer simulation. It was found that both synchronous and asynchronous oscillations having the same orders of magnitude are excited by sinusoidal load perturbations in the microdynamic regime. These oscillations persist even in the presence of light linear damping. The integration of the derived joint models with those for the elastic links of preloaded planar truss structures is discussed.
The paper concerns the elastic buckling behavior of a newly developed superplastically formed/diffusion-bonded (SPF/DB) orthogonally corrugated core sandwich plate. Uniaxial buckling loads were calculated for this type of sandwich plate with simply supported edges by using orthotropic sandwich plate theory. The buckling behavior of this sandwich plate was then compared with that of an SPF/DB unidirectionally corrugated core sandwich plate under conditions of equal structural density. It was found that the buckling load for the former was considerably higher than that of the latter.
Sparse distributed memory was proposed be Pentti Kanerva as a realizable architecture that could store large patterns and retrieve them based on partial matches with patterns representing current sensory inputs. This memory exhibits behaviors, both in theory and in experiment, that resemble those previously unapproached by machines - e.g., rapid recognition of faces or odors, discovery of new connections between seemingly unrelated ideas, continuation of a sequence of events when given a cue from the middle, knowing that one doesn't know, or getting stuck with an answer on the tip of one's tongue. These behaviors are now within reach of machines that can be incorporated into the computing systems of robots capable of seeing, talking, and manipulating. Kanerva's theory is a break with the Western rationalistic tradition, allowing a new interpretation of learning and cognition that respects biology and the mysteries of individual human beings.
The predictions of theoretical models for a critical-point phase transistion in fluids, namely the classical equation with third-degree critical isotherm, that with fifth-degree critical isotherm, and the lattice gas, are reviewed. The renormalization group theory of critical phenomena and the hypothesis of universality of critical behavior supported by this theory are discussed as well as the nature of gravity effects and how they affect cricital-region experimentation in fluids. The behavior of the thermodynamic properties and the correlation function is formulated in terms of scaling laws. The predictions of these scaling laws and of the hypothesis of universality of critical behavior are compared with experimental data for one-component fluids and it is indicated how the methods can be extended to describe critical phenomena in fluid mixtures.
The objective of the program is to evaluate and develop existing constitutive models for use in finite-element structural analysis of turbine engine hot section components. The class of constitutive equation studied is considered unified in that all inelastic deformation including plasticity, creep, and stress relaxation are treated in a single term rather than a classical separation of plasticity (time independent) and creep (time dependent) behavior. The unified theories employed also do not utilize the classical yield surface or plastic potential concept. The models are constructed from an appropriate flow law, a scalar kinetic relation between strain rate, temperature and stress, and evolutionary equations for internal variables describing strain or work hardening, both isotropic and directional (kinematic). This and other studies have shown that the unified approach is particularly suited for determining the cyclic behavior of superalloy type blade and vane materials and is entirely compatible with three-dimensional inelastic finite-element formulations. The behavior was examined of a second nickel-base alloy, MAR-M247, and compared it with the Bodner-Partom model, further examined procedures for determining the material-specific constants in the models, and exercised the MARC code for a turbine blade under simulated flight spectrum loading. Results are summarized.
Fundamental alterations in the theory and resulting behavior of polarized, astrophysical maser radiation in the presence of a magnetic field have been asserted based on a calculation of instabilities in the radiative transfer. I reconsider the radiative transfer and find that the relevant instabilities do not occur. Calculational errors in the previous investigation are identified. In addition, such instabilities would have appeared -- but did not -- in the numerous numerical solutions to the same radiative transfer equations that have been presented in the literature. As a result, all modifications that have been presented in a recent series of papers (Elitzur 1991, 1993) to the theory for polarized maser radiation in the presence of a magnetic field are invalid. The basic theory is thus clarified.
Human error, a significant contributing factor in a very high proportion of civil transport, general aviation, and rotorcraft accidents is investigated. Correction of the sources of human error requires that one attempt to reconstruct underlying and contributing causes of error from the circumstantial causes cited in official investigative reports. A validated analytical theory of the input-output behavior of human operators involving manual control, communication, supervisory, and monitoring tasks which are relevant to aviation operations is presented. This theory of behavior, both appropriate and inappropriate, provides an insightful basis for investigating, classifying, and quantifying the needed cause-effect relationships governing propagation of human error.
A generalized applied group theory is developed, and it is shown that phenomena from a number of diverse disciplines may be included under the umbrella of a single theoretical formulation based upon the concept of a group consistent with the usual definition of this term.